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1149 analyses, newest first
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: 15-minute sampled exits 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV2026-09-10 00:17
Frozen note1689, same EAR>0 event entries as daily test1851. Actual first09:30 SIP15min open; prior20dailyADR stop1/target1.5, half at+1ADR. Check returned bar close, execute at next observed bar open, activate breakeven after half. Stop/target full exit takes priority if both profit levels surpassed at a sampled check. Provider extended-hours bars retained, no synthetic missing bars; exact venue quote sampling and20:00–04:00 overnight coverage unavailable. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp each side. Vectorbt and cash ledger reconciled per event; stitched event equity includes flat gaps. Nine2021–25events, one2026event separately, no parameter selection. All expected regular15min slots present after July3 2023early close correction; this does not prove complete extended execution. The positive holdout is too imprecise: CI includes zero; marked risk exceeds daily-model risk. No live adoption from N9, no average-trade arithmetic mistaken for monthly opportunity. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results .
return10.69
drawdown4.2
win rate100
sample1
average win pct10.69
average loss pct0
mean pct10.69
CI low pct10.69
CI high pct10.69
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
regular missing0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: 15-minute sampled exits 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV2026-09-10 00:17
Frozen note1689, same EAR>0 event entries as daily test1851. Actual first09:30 SIP15min open; prior20dailyADR stop1/target1.5, half at+1ADR. Check returned bar close, execute at next observed bar open, activate breakeven after half. Stop/target full exit takes priority if both profit levels surpassed at a sampled check. Provider extended-hours bars retained, no synthetic missing bars; exact venue quote sampling and20:00–04:00 overnight coverage unavailable. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp each side. Vectorbt and cash ledger reconciled per event; stitched event equity includes flat gaps. Nine2021–25events, one2026event separately, no parameter selection. All expected regular15min slots present after July3 2023early close correction; this does not prove complete extended execution. The positive holdout is too imprecise: CI includes zero; marked risk exceeds daily-model risk. No live adoption from N9, no average-trade arithmetic mistaken for monthly opportunity. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVAV&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results .
return23.91
drawdown10.18
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct5.84
average loss pct4.1
mean pct2.53
CI low pct-0.79
CI high pct5.52
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
regular missing0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0.05, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.05. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18739. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return4.04
drawdown7.62
win rate60
sample5
average win pct3.99
average loss pct3.8
mean pct0.87
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.05
CI low pct-2.6
CI high pct4.26
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0.05, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.05. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18738. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return5.09
drawdown7.16
win rate60
sample5
average win pct4.2
average loss pct3.61
mean pct1.08
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.06
CI low pct-2.41
CI high pct4.47
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0.05, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.05. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18737. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return14.57
drawdown41.33
win rate40
sample5
average win pct40.83
average loss pct15.42
mean pct7.08
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.04
CI low pct-16.84
CI high pct38.86
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0.05, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.05. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18736. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return15.72
drawdown41.03
win rate40
sample5
average win pct41.11
average loss pct15.25
mean pct7.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.04
CI low pct-16.68
CI high pct39.14
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0.02, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.02. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 9.094947017729282e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18735. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return8.5
drawdown8.33
win rate62.5
sample8
average win pct3.97
average loss pct3.7
mean pct1.1
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.07
CI low pct-1.6
CI high pct3.53
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0.02, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.02. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 4.547473508864641e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18734. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return10.25
drawdown7.87
win rate62.5
sample8
average win pct4.18
average loss pct3.5
mean pct1.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.08
CI low pct-1.41
CI high pct3.74
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0.02, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.02. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18733. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return56.94
drawdown40.22
win rate50
sample8
average win pct29.57
average loss pct11.97
mean pct8.8
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.07
CI low pct-7.76
CI high pct29.34
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: parent20, EAR>0.02, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0.02. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18732. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return59.47
drawdown39.61
win rate50
sample8
average win pct29.83
average loss pct11.8
mean pct9.01
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.08
CI low pct-7.57
CI high pct29.6
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: green5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18731. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return7.39
drawdown0.16
win rate100
sample1
average win pct7.39
average loss pct0
mean pct7.39
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct7.39
CI high pct7.39
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: green5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18730. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return7.61
drawdown0.06
win rate100
sample1
average win pct7.61
average loss pct0
mean pct7.61
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct7.61
CI high pct7.61
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: green5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18729. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return7.74
drawdown0
win rate100
sample1
average win pct7.74
average loss pct0
mean pct7.74
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct7.74
CI high pct7.74
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: fixed5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18728. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return8.94
drawdown0.16
win rate100
sample1
average win pct8.94
average loss pct0
mean pct8.94
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct8.94
CI high pct8.94
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: fixed5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18727. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return9.15
drawdown0.06
win rate100
sample1
average win pct9.15
average loss pct0
mean pct9.15
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct9.15
CI high pct9.15
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: fixed5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18726. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return9.29
drawdown0
win rate100
sample1
average win pct9.29
average loss pct0
mean pct9.29
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct9.29
CI high pct9.29
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: time5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 1.1368683772161603e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18725. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-7.48
drawdown17.48
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct7.48
mean pct-7.48
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-7.48
CI high pct-7.48
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: time5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18724. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-7.3
drawdown17.39
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct7.3
mean pct-7.3
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-7.3
CI high pct-7.3
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: time5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18723. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-7.19
drawdown17.35
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct7.19
mean pct-7.19
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-7.19
CI high pct-7.19
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: parent20, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18722. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-16.67
drawdown26.02
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct16.67
mean pct-16.67
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-16.67
CI high pct-16.67
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: parent20, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18721. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-16.5
drawdown26.02
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct16.5
mean pct-16.5
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-16.5
CI high pct-16.5
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV extension: parent20, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. 20-session close exit, no stops. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18720. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return-16.4
drawdown26.02
win rate0
sample1
average win pct0
average loss pct16.4
mean pct-16.4
quarter Kelly diagnostic0
CI low pct-16.4
CI high pct-16.4
cost bp side0
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0, 16bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 9.094947017729282e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18719. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return16.57
drawdown8.33
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.55
average loss pct3.7
mean pct1.8
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.1
CI low pct-1
CI high pct4.4
cost bp side16
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0, 6bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 0. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18718. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return18.69
drawdown7.87
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.76
average loss pct3.5
mean pct2.01
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.81
CI high pct4.61
cost bp side6
actual size0
QEAR91000 AVAV holdout: green5, EAR>0, 0bp/side
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationAVAV, SPY2026-09-10 00:16
Frozen notes1683/1684/1688. Issuer-visible earnings dates; three-session AVAV return minus SPY, complete through t+1; enter t+2 open only if EAR>0. Five-session horizon; stop1 prior20-session mean H-L, target1.5ADR; sell half at1ADR, remaining stop breakeven from next session. Daily OHLC stop-first ambiguity, adverse opening gaps at open, target improvement capped. Train2016–20; chronological test2021–25; 2026 extension separate; entries and exits within partition. Fees0bp plus slippage0bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only,1000USD initial cash, fractional shares, no fixed business costs. Cash ledger reconciled, max error 2.2737367544323206e-13. Drawdown uses open/close marks, not full intraday risk. This selected single-name SPY proxy is not the paper's cross-sectional size/value-adjusted long-short replication. Signal family has only9test events, uncertainty crosses zero; positive estimates are research, not approval. Full metrics observation18717. Source https://investor.avinc.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
return19.98
drawdown7.59
win rate66.67
sample9
average win pct4.89
average loss pct3.39
mean pct2.13
quarter Kelly diagnostic0.11
CI low pct-0.69
CI high pct4.74
cost bp side0
actual size0
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