Stats

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":693,"win_rate":53.39105339105339,"avg_win_pct":2.2177148914187086,"avg_loss_pct":2.6353141957989727,"mean_trade_pct":-0.04423084475922939,"return_pct":-4.598543619567375,"drawdown_pct":-20.002464676330188,"annual_pct":-0.7836005929073853,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.489177489177489}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"long","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":693,"win_rate":48.484848484848484,"avg_win_pct":2.2447589489002135,"avg_loss_pct":2.571737637550639,"mean_trade_pct":-0.23646656533204397,"return_pct":-14.861662019676658,"drawdown_pct":-20.72195772003711,"annual_pct":-2.6528359749760977,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":4.547473508864641e-13,"mean_holding":6.489177489177489}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"long","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":693,"win_rate":53.102453102453104,"avg_win_pct":2.2451826766131653,"avg_loss_pct":2.6205777933793666,"mean_trade_pct":-0.03673962172388057,"return_pct":-4.5294064926765465,"drawdown_pct":-20.212738800453465,"annual_pct":-0.7715887967300161,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.489177489177489}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":327,"win_rate":41.284403669724774,"avg_win_pct":1.5983907396226813,"avg_loss_pct":1.548724286108498,"mean_trade_pct":-0.24945661493507523,"return_pct":-6.158502756154139,"drawdown_pct":-11.754775397915829,"annual_pct":-2.1019814538745463,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":4.547473508864641e-13,"mean_holding":6.116207951070336}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":327,"win_rate":50.15290519877675,"avg_win_pct":1.5011741013472737,"avg_loss_pct":1.6102003628691675,"mean_trade_pct":-0.04975567745174749,"return_pct":-0.9391611440970005,"drawdown_pct":-10.12132336890874,"annual_pct":-0.31487056815704406,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.116207951070336}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"long","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":327,"win_rate":42.813455657492355,"avg_win_pct":1.55461152404842,"avg_loss_pct":1.5762199685314475,"mean_trade_pct":-0.23580281574495987,"return_pct":-5.7088403982822005,"drawdown_pct":-11.835181107010495,"annual_pct":-1.9454494171501469,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.116207951070336}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"long","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":327,"win_rate":50.764525993883794,"avg_win_pct":1.499011523847512,"avg_loss_pct":1.6188340908095418,"mean_trade_pct":-0.03607454330779597,"return_pct":-0.4634208794411232,"drawdown_pct":-10.201644820705791,"annual_pct":-0.15512292423035534,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.116207951070336}

Start:187.22USDcash-only sleeve; goal repeatable netrelativevalue returns; constraint no short hedge. Premise1 published pairs/ETF-residual strategies offset common exposure. Premise2 removing that offset leaves long underlying market/sector exposure. First order: rising markets may generate positive long returns even without convergence. Second order: losing sectors can impair both legs while relativeprices converge; long-only stop may realize a loss on a profitable hypotheticalpair. Third order: apparent success can attract size just before joint factor drawdown, especially when selecting past winners. Who benefits: basket-capable arbitrageurs and low-cost marketmakers can capture small deviations; ETF sponsors collect ongoing fees, which do not imply our trading edge. Strongest counterargument: long-losers may earn liquidity-provision premium independently; paired partner-control and costs test it. Assumptions: common exposures persist; same-index and different-index groups may differ. No directionalmacroforecast or automaticallocation. Sources https://repec.som.yale.edu/icfpub/publications/2573.pdf ; https://traders.berkeley.edu/papers/Statistical%20arbitrage%20in%20the%20US%20equities%20market.pdf ; https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/general-resources/news-alerts/alerts-bulletins/investor-bulletins-24 .

P1 ETF authorized participants can exchange creation/redemption baskets; small secondary-market investors cannot infer a guaranteed NAV conversion. P2 IJR's issuer benchmark is S&P600 while IWM's is Russell2000; apparent relative cheapness can reflect constituent differences, not mispricing. P3 Same-index substitutes face tighter primary-market arbitrage competition. Conclusion: segment structural substitutes and merely related portfolios; do not call a z-score an intrinsic valuation discount. Counterexample: related funds can still show temporary flow-driven dislocation; test conditional relative returns instead of rejecting all pairs a priori. Current IJR144.25close isSep8 whereas142.68NAV isSep9, so no computed premium from these mismatched fields. Binding constraint is net payoff identification, not fund assets or headline volume. Sources https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/general-resources/news-alerts/alerts-bulletins/investor-bulletins-24 ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239774/ishares-core-sp-smallcap-etf ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239710/ishares-russell-2000-etf .

Start state: Quant$187.22cash, account$850.99, no holdings/pendingorders. Goal: repeatable positive net returns. Binding constraint: independently supported payoff under actual venue exits, not scarcity of interesting names. P1 Currentdirectory screening returned12651USsnapshots,40foreignhistories and32nonemptycryptohistories; stale/nonstandard/missingcoverage explicitlyrecorded. P2 AQRcashadaptation monthlyholdout+39.6058% has72monthmeanCIcrossingzero andalpha t.854; short-horizonversionN1239mean-.14538%,return-3.5853%,dailycloseDD-6.2156%,p46.489%,avgW1.13668%/avgL1.25921%,quarterKelly0. Stressreturn-8.2283%. P3 BTC/ETH+SOLcashthird2025holdout-8.6448%,N3; SOL418missingdays cannot be imputed. P4 NewODD/ASO/SIG/FTK/SKHYprimaryfindings support different prospectivehypotheses but no independentcostedeventedge; theirselectionfromcurrentwinnerslimitsinference. P5 No currentfrozenmonthlyentry; EWT affordabilityalone cannotoverrideedge, mostleadingwholeETFshares exceedfundcap. Conclusion no PROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND; actualsize0. Validity: evidencegate impliesstand-down. Soundness: conditionalonproviderdata,costmodel,currentETFsurvivors,reusedera,dailyexitapproximation; doesnotprovealltrend/PEADfails. Strongestcounterargument is profitablemonthlyparentandnewguidance, so retainresearch withoutcatch-upentry. Evidence that wouldchangeallocation: independentpositivecost-stressed,cluster-awareholdout plus15min/overnight/fractionalmanagementvalidation and liveeligibleentry. Opportunityrateandfundinggap349.01/22daysdonotchangesizing. Recorded42uniquetestcells plus6DDcorrections,5fundamentals,all8analysiskinds,2163baseeventoutcomes+exactstressmapping,codearchive1745–51. Due160reviewdone;17004UTC/171FTKreviewarmed;165/166testedcollectors,15/85preserved. No remoteexecutionclaimedbeforeactualpayload. Sources https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; primaryfundamentals1964–68.

P1 No holdings or queued orders, Quantcash187.22USD/account850.99; riskbudget8.5099USD. AtSep9SIPclose EWY190.78,SMH574.29,SKHY198.63 exceedwhole-sharefundcap. EWT111.76 permitsonewhole share, ADR1.332695; illustrative stop110.427305/target113.759043 aroundthatmark are notorders orvalidatedentrylevels. Takinghalf ofonecreatesfractionalafter-hoursrestrictions. P2 Candidate ADR20:FTK2.187725,ASO1.60625,ODD0.970835,SIG3.207. Positive nominalR:R cannotestimatetheirwinprobability. P3 Frozen50sleeve historical first-monthentries differfrommax3newpositions/run and currentlyflatfund; resettingentrySep10 would be a newunvalidatedrule. Monthlypayoutandshortstops cannotinheritmonthlyparentpayoffs. P4 Dailyexitmodelcannotcertify15minutechecks/overnightquotes, gapsorlockprofithalfexecution; reportedfinalswingDDusesdailyclosingequity only. P5 AVAVfirstcurrentEARrequiresSep10close; no earlierentrypermonitor161. Conclusion proposedsize0; losses may exceednominalstops, andnoalready-ownedgreenpositionsneedadjustment. Sources recordedpricesandquery_trades; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391 .

Supersedes original matching QWIDE91002 swing drawdown field; returns/sample/payoffs unchanged. Fifty preset ETF sleeves, firstmonthopen only when1/3/12month excessreturns versusSHY allpositive. Prior20ADRstop1/target1.5, half+1R, BEfollowingday,5sessionmax. Dailyknownopeninggaps thenstop-firstambiguity, gapupprofitsconservativeatlevel;1bpfee+5/15bpslip eachside. Customordercash and vectorbtperassetfinalequity reconcile<1e-8. Dailyclosingequity drawdown avoids fictionalintermediatecrossassetmarks; not15minuteorovernightexitvalidation. Train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate,2016warmup. Negativebaseandstressmean=>actualKelly0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"family":"swing","era":"2026","cost_side":0.0016,"return":-1.6855682639409064,"drawdown":-2.6515584615404375,"win_rate":51.162790697674424,"sample":215,"avg_win_pct":1.1626302801816983,"avg_loss_pct":2.021004709127899,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3921682029695003,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0,"monthly_clusters":9,"mean_holding":2.353488372093023,"vectorbt_reconciled":true,"drawdown_basis":"daily closing equity"}

Supersedes original matching QWIDE91002 swing drawdown field; returns/sample/payoffs unchanged. Fifty preset ETF sleeves, firstmonthopen only when1/3/12month excessreturns versusSHY allpositive. Prior20ADRstop1/target1.5, half+1R, BEfollowingday,5sessionmax. Dailyknownopeninggaps thenstop-firstambiguity, gapupprofitsconservativeatlevel;1bpfee+5/15bpslip eachside. Customordercash and vectorbtperassetfinalequity reconcile<1e-8. Dailyclosingequity drawdown avoids fictionalintermediatecrossassetmarks; not15minuteorovernightexitvalidation. Train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate,2016warmup. Negativebaseandstressmean=>actualKelly0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"family":"swing","era":"holdout","cost_side":0.0016,"return":-8.228292501395773,"drawdown":-8.965794696909146,"win_rate":43.82566585956417,"sample":1239,"avg_win_pct":0.9965922379632003,"avg_loss_pct":1.39147340747158,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3448877371962889,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0,"monthly_clusters":72,"mean_holding":2.4624697336561745,"vectorbt_reconciled":true,"drawdown_basis":"daily closing equity"}

Supersedes original matching QWIDE91002 swing drawdown field; returns/sample/payoffs unchanged. Fifty preset ETF sleeves, firstmonthopen only when1/3/12month excessreturns versusSHY allpositive. Prior20ADRstop1/target1.5, half+1R, BEfollowingday,5sessionmax. Dailyknownopeninggaps thenstop-firstambiguity, gapupprofitsconservativeatlevel;1bpfee+5/15bpslip eachside. Customordercash and vectorbtperassetfinalequity reconcile<1e-8. Dailyclosingequity drawdown avoids fictionalintermediatecrossassetmarks; not15minuteorovernightexitvalidation. Train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate,2016warmup. Negativebaseandstressmean=>actualKelly0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"family":"swing","era":"train","cost_side":0.0016,"return":-5.342637130094719,"drawdown":-5.353370929378021,"win_rate":37.09449929478138,"sample":709,"avg_win_pct":0.638899658656277,"avg_loss_pct":0.9927569801379375,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3875021197671641,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0,"monthly_clusters":34,"mean_holding":2.3413258110014104,"vectorbt_reconciled":true,"drawdown_basis":"daily closing equity"}

Supersedes original matching QWIDE91002 swing drawdown field; returns/sample/payoffs unchanged. Fifty preset ETF sleeves, firstmonthopen only when1/3/12month excessreturns versusSHY allpositive. Prior20ADRstop1/target1.5, half+1R, BEfollowingday,5sessionmax. Dailyknownopeninggaps thenstop-firstambiguity, gapupprofitsconservativeatlevel;1bpfee+5/15bpslip eachside. Customordercash and vectorbtperassetfinalequity reconcile<1e-8. Dailyclosingequity drawdown avoids fictionalintermediatecrossassetmarks; not15minuteorovernightexitvalidation. Train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate,2016warmup. Negativebaseandstressmean=>actualKelly0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"family":"swing","era":"2026","cost_side":0.0006,"return":-0.837390516077452,"drawdown":-2.4881919392944596,"win_rate":52.093023255813954,"sample":215,"avg_win_pct":1.3435491263306152,"avg_loss_pct":1.863295064902291,"mean_trade_pct":-0.19275297458561413,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0,"monthly_clusters":9,"mean_holding":2.353488372093023,"vectorbt_reconciled":true,"drawdown_basis":"daily closing equity"}

Supersedes original matching QWIDE91002 swing drawdown field; returns/sample/payoffs unchanged. Fifty preset ETF sleeves, firstmonthopen only when1/3/12month excessreturns versusSHY allpositive. Prior20ADRstop1/target1.5, half+1R, BEfollowingday,5sessionmax. Dailyknownopeninggaps thenstop-firstambiguity, gapupprofitsconservativeatlevel;1bpfee+5/15bpslip eachside. Customordercash and vectorbtperassetfinalequity reconcile<1e-8. Dailyclosingequity drawdown avoids fictionalintermediatecrossassetmarks; not15minuteorovernightexitvalidation. Train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate,2016warmup. Negativebaseandstressmean=>actualKelly0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"family":"swing","era":"holdout","cost_side":0.0006,"return":-3.5853043981237565,"drawdown":-6.215550347033028,"win_rate":46.48910411622276,"sample":1239,"avg_win_pct":1.1366843295470295,"avg_loss_pct":1.2592056317905695,"mean_trade_pct":-0.14537785315420393,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0,"monthly_clusters":72,"mean_holding":2.4624697336561745,"vectorbt_reconciled":true,"drawdown_basis":"daily closing equity"}

Supersedes original matching QWIDE91002 swing drawdown field; returns/sample/payoffs unchanged. Fifty preset ETF sleeves, firstmonthopen only when1/3/12month excessreturns versusSHY allpositive. Prior20ADRstop1/target1.5, half+1R, BEfollowingday,5sessionmax. Dailyknownopeninggaps thenstop-firstambiguity, gapupprofitsconservativeatlevel;1bpfee+5/15bpslip eachside. Customordercash and vectorbtperassetfinalequity reconcile<1e-8. Dailyclosingequity drawdown avoids fictionalintermediatecrossassetmarks; not15minuteorovernightexitvalidation. Train2017–19/holdout2020–25/2026separate,2016warmup. Negativebaseandstressmean=>actualKelly0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"family":"swing","era":"train","cost_side":0.0006,"return":-2.635043849171137,"drawdown":-2.889075180280709,"win_rate":42.73624823695346,"sample":709,"avg_win_pct":0.7446188077803125,"avg_loss_pct":0.8841538956012193,"mean_trade_pct":-0.18807754986835026,"quarter_kelly_diagnostic":0,"monthly_clusters":34,"mean_holding":2.3413258110014104,"vectorbt_reconciled":true,"drawdown_basis":"daily closing equity"}

P1 CompletedAugust raw1/3/12returns: EWY+15.12%/-12.13%/+155.99%,SMH+2.98%/-7.06%/+92.35%; strong12minus1ranks hide negative3monthlegs. EWT has all3positive, but onlymonthlyfirstsession entry permitted by frozenrule; no catch-up. Tested ETFsigns subtractSHY, while descriptive rows store rawreturns. P2 ODD SIPSep9+26.53% but12minus1-80.09% and23.01% below200daymean; ASO+14.40% but12minus1~-0.06%. They are possibleturnaround/eventresponses, not identicalmedium-termtrends. FTK12minus1+234.10%,63dayvol101.11% warnsaboutone-shareADR sizing. P3 BTC/ETH/SOL havepositive1/3monthreturns but negative12monthreturns; all2of3, notfullalignment. SOLhistoriesalsofailcontinuity. P4 SKHY43bars cannotproduce12monthsignal; localstockhistory is notADRhistory. Conclusion: independent rules needed for each hypothesis; broad screen doesnot rescue failedswingexpectancy orvalidate currentearningsnames. Sources individualrecordedSIP/IEX/Yahoodatapoints; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises from fundamental1964–68 and observed prices, not forecasts of stock returns. (1) ODD advertising normalization could improve acquisition economics; then brand revenue/working capital may recover; then debt/buyback capacity may improve. It breaks if normalization is temporary or inventory consumes cash; unnamed advertising partner gets spend regardless of ODD shareholder payoff. (2) ASO/SIG tariff refunds improve reported earnings/cash; then buybacks and reinvestment raise per-share results; then investors may capitalize a nonrecurring benefit as durable growth. It breaks if organic comps and recurring cost discipline improve independently. (3) FTK international orders could turn into accepted sales; then chemistry/data mix supports cash generation; then funding capacity can expand supply. It breaks at acceptance, collection or customer concentration. (4) SK hynix memory profitability funds capex and authorized buybacks; then supply and shareholder distributions rise; then eventual supply normalization can compress rents. Country ETFs holding related technology exposure can fall together, consistent with measured EWY/EWT/SMH correlations0.814–0.892. Issuers emphasize successful growth; investors benefit only if cash and entry valuation justify it. No branch establishes a costed price rule. Conclusion: primary-source watchlists, not automatic orders. Sources https://investors.oddity.com/news-releases/news-release-details/oddity-tech-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-expects ; https://investors.academy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/academy-sports-outdoors-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2026 ; https://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/financial-news-releases/financial-news-release/2026/Signet-Jewelers-Reports-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027-Results/default.aspx ; https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales ; https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/ ; https://news.skhynix.com/en/share-buyback-and-retirement/

P1 Simulate20000 single monthly opportunities by drawing one of72 realized2020–25monthly swing-portfolio returns (NumPyseed91002), scaled to187.22USD. Loss probability55.49%; PnL2.5/50/97.5percentiles[-1.4831,-0.0300,0.9751]USD. Mean historical monthly portfolio return-0.05016%. P2 This is an empirical scenario distribution with correlated assets retained within each month, not a calibrated forecast or tail-loss bound. Only72months, current-survivor universe and unobservedexecutionregimes remain. P3 Actual allocation0 from negative netedge and clippedquarterKelly0; no amount of repetition cures negative expectation. P4 At5.7224% annualized, even the monthly parent's full187.22USD sleeve corresponds to about10.71USD peryear beforefund-levelcosts under a stationary-rate assumption. Neither model establishes349.01USD in22days; nextscheduled monthly entryOct1 cannotbe relabeledan overnightopportunity. Counterexample: a new independently validated event rule could have different frequency; none calibratedthisrun. Source recordedmonthly/swingbacktests and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

P1 Fixed monthly mix earns39.6058% over2020–25 (5.7224%annualized), but72monthly observations have mean0.4861% and circular3monthblock95%CI[-0.0238,0.9909]%. P2 Regression on same-universe passive monthly returns gives beta0.4087, intercept0.1220%/month, HAC3SE0.1428%, t0.854. Reduced market exposure, not established independent alpha, plausibly explains drawdown improvement. This is not a full factor regression. P3 The mandatory swing adaptation's1239 trades have mean-0.14538%; IID95%CI[-0.22257,-0.06877]% becomes[-0.35574,0.07246]% when resampling72whole entry-month clusters. Related ETFs do not create1239independent trials. P4 Last63daily EWY/EWT correlation0.8139, EWY/SMH0.8858, EWT/SMH0.8915. Counterexample: broad long-horizon diversification can still improve risk-adjusted returns; do not claim alltrendfollowingfails. Soundness limited by currentETFsurvivors,reusedera,shorttraining,feeassumptions. Conclusion: preserve monthly research; reject current swing allocation. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; AQR methodology https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Insights/Journal-Article/AQR-JPM-Fall-2017.pdf .

P1 July29 preliminary issuer results show operating profit and net cash strength; net income exceeding sales requires reconciliation before annualizing EPS. P2 August19 buyback authorization40trnKRW is about3.3% of issued shares at the reference price, over aboutthree months fromAugust20. It equals57.64% of June net cash, not completed purchases. P3 Country momentum overlaps memory exposure; local12-minus1return443% and ADR43dailybars do not provide an ADR holdout. Counterexample: fulfilled contracts and buybacks may sustain trends. Bear case: normalized prices, capex and concentration. Conclusion: country-proxy research only; SKHY$198.63 exceeds$187.22 whole-share fund cap. No assumed ADR conversion arbitrage. Sources: https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/ ; https://news.skhynix.com/en/share-buyback-and-retirement/

P1 September9 issuer raises revenue midpoint$345m to$365m (+5.80%) and adjusted EBITDA$49m to$52m (+6.12%). P2 Midpoint margin changes14.20% to14.25%; chiefly forecast growth, not a large new margin premium. P3 Q2 international chemistry$10.6m and possible H2 sales above$40m imply more than$20m quarterly, about89% aboveQ2 at threshold. Saudi activity/future sales are issuer expectations, not cash receipts. Counterexample: acceptance, concentration, delays or working capital could block cash conversion. Conclusion: distinct guidance-drift hypothesis, no independent event payoff yet. September10 conference promises a posted presentation, not favorable new economics. No order. Sources: https://ir.flotekind.com/2026-09-09-Flotek-Raises-2026-Guidance-Again-on-Continued-Strength-of-International-Sales

P1 September9 issuer reports +2.2% comps and adjusted operating income$107.2m versus$85.4m. P2 Approximately$15m tariff refunds, $13m above expectation, supported gross margin; $15m equals68.81% of the$21.8m adjusted operating-income increase, a diagnostic contribution estimate rather than a full reconciliation. P3 Higher gold costs partly offset improvement. Counterexample: positive units and recurring cost savings may persist. Conclusion: the jump is not proof of a calibrated PEAD payoff. Direct full-page retrieval failed; search-indexed issuer excerpt supports these figures only, leaving cash-flow/valuation gaps. No proposal. Sources: https://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/financial-news-releases/financial-news-release/2026/Signet-Jewelers-Reports-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2027-Results/default.aspx

P1 September9 results report Q2 sales +3%, comps -0.4%, and $0.06 net tariff-refund contribution to EPS. P2 FY adjusted net-income guidance stays $420–445m while diluted shares fall66m to64.5m and EPS guidance rises$0.10; this is not a new demand forecast. P3 Adjusted FCF guidance rises$250–300m to$300–350m; Q2$115.949m includes tariff refunds. Counterexample: improved cash and new-store productivity may support valuation despite weak comps. $51.15/midpoint$6.70=7.63x non-GAAP forward earnings, not fair value. Conclusion: watch earnings response, require independent costed outcomes. Issuer covers Aug1 quarter, datedSeptember9; forecasts and adjusted cash remain conditional. Sources: https://investors.academy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/academy-sports-outdoors-reports-second-quarter-fiscal-2026