Stats

Preregisteredlookback60/120 xentry1.5/2/2.5 xcost6/16bpside. Exit.5/10sessions; swingparentearlieropenor5sessionADR1/1.5half+1R/BEfollowingday. No selectbestcell: base60/2 remainsdecisioncell. Allcash-onlyportfoliosvectorbt/customreconcile4.55e-13; dailycloseDD; 12independentsleeves,currentETFsurvivors,notactual3newposition/whole-share/15minvenuevalidation. Columns[lookback,entryz,bpside,return%,DD%,N,win%,avgW%,avgL%,meantrade%]. [[60,2,6,-0.4634208794411232,-10.201644820705791,327,50.764525993883794,1.499011523847512,1.6188340908095418,-0.03607454330779597],[60,2,16,-5.7088403982822005,-11.835181107010495,327,42.813455657492355,1.55461152404842,1.5762199685314475,-0.23580281574495987],[60,1.5,6,6.81790981403807,-10.89996802003328,671,53.055141579731746,1.4532404169387751,1.4065824490143222,0.11070062144663562],[60,1.5,16,-4.0859997207189025,-13.96185904095153,671,45.30551415797318,1.4823796861740477,1.3912200382958961,-0.08932090828268759],[60,2.5,6,0.30032791461374053,-4.9051717651272035,159,54.088050314465406,1.6094990604729793,1.8893884525025633,0.003091585962195606],[60,2.5,16,-2.3005076520489776,-5.831026836499342,159,48.42767295597484,1.5813549773424238,1.8663659609869556,-0.19671494053813673],[120,1.5,6,4.817315067172112,-11.517683616735885,598,55.51839464882943,1.3639937206739663,1.4545766603171857,0.11024836725649735],[120,1.5,16,-4.846516247413135,-14.237138773158364,598,47.15719063545151,1.3842022661179492,1.4051545881264262,-0.08977225886737304],[120,2,6,-2.766007548088023,-8.826135955349812,301,51.49501661129568,1.3240860905491265,1.647682152182201,-0.11736960193849402],[120,2,16,-7.464710876653003,-10.589007914710235,301,43.85382059800664,1.336831376963703,1.6086349773673916,-0.3169354465643867],[120,2.5,6,-3.982463451270324,-6.905482085045678,127,46.45669291338583,1.8034615063978423,2.2592677951282956,-0.3718581196161529],[120,2.5,16,-5.990906530937701,-7.76872924166504,127,40.15748031496063,1.8671982305496355,2.2070181271106017,-0.570915495294286]] Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Supersedesmatching2018–2023holdingdurationonly; return,drawdown,winrate,payoffs,sampleandordersUNCHANGED. Openinggap/spreadexitsnowcounte-i completedsessions; intraday/closeexitcountse-i+1. Evente isactualexitindex,parent_eexplicitseparate; priorfilee retainedparentindex whileexitdatewasalreadycorrect. Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":85,"win_rate":44.70588235294118,"avg_win_pct":0.944269809591242,"avg_loss_pct":1.3829640925000688,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3425536421533652,"return_pct":-2.3871083914865365,"drawdown_pct":-2.917901489156405,"annual_pct":-3.477892493775503,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":1.8823529411764706}

Supersedesmatching2018–2023holdingdurationonly; return,drawdown,winrate,payoffs,sampleandordersUNCHANGED. Openinggap/spreadexitsnowcounte-i completedsessions; intraday/closeexitcountse-i+1. Evente isactualexitindex,parent_eexplicitseparate; priorfilee retainedparentindex whileexitdatewasalreadycorrect. Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":85,"win_rate":49.411764705882355,"avg_win_pct":1.046315050016964,"avg_loss_pct":1.3047338220121734,"mean_trade_pct":-0.14303908524483494,"return_pct":-0.9904116127343765,"drawdown_pct":-1.9254991703749558,"annual_pct":-1.4477200319909067,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":1.8823529411764706}

Supersedesmatching2018–2023holdingdurationonly; return,drawdown,winrate,payoffs,sampleandordersUNCHANGED. Openinggap/spreadexitsnowcounte-i completedsessions; intraday/closeexitcountse-i+1. Evente isactualexitindex,parent_eexplicitseparate; priorfilee retainedparentindex whileexitdatewasalreadycorrect. Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":693,"win_rate":43.722943722943725,"avg_win_pct":1.0497530757657871,"avg_loss_pct":1.4076187714913904,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3331834616516719,"return_pct":-17.443805966494452,"drawdown_pct":-17.631252757542924,"annual_pct":-3.1525611975993906,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.168831168831169}

Supersedesmatching2018–2023holdingdurationonly; return,drawdown,winrate,payoffs,sampleandordersUNCHANGED. Openinggap/spreadexitsnowcounte-i completedsessions; intraday/closeexitcountse-i+1. Evente isactualexitindex,parent_eexplicitseparate; priorfilee retainedparentindex whileexitdatewasalreadycorrect. Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":693,"win_rate":47.33044733044733,"avg_win_pct":1.1622766582272532,"avg_loss_pct":1.298209026864466,"mean_trade_pct":-0.13365014560893357,"return_pct":-7.482735811444297,"drawdown_pct":-8.062771031087145,"annual_pct":-1.2912775159435896,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":4.547473508864641e-13,"mean_holding":2.168831168831169}

Supersedesmatching2018–2023holdingdurationonly; return,drawdown,winrate,payoffs,sampleandordersUNCHANGED. Openinggap/spreadexitsnowcounte-i completedsessions; intraday/closeexitcountse-i+1. Evente isactualexitindex,parent_eexplicitseparate; priorfilee retainedparentindex whileexitdatewasalreadycorrect. Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":327,"win_rate":36.08562691131498,"avg_win_pct":0.7219622563489604,"avg_loss_pct":0.9572955037660856,"mean_trade_pct":-0.35132481357166523,"return_pct":-8.991668540893727,"drawdown_pct":-9.243124263749024,"annual_pct":-3.099904585973068,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.073394495412844}

Supersedesmatching2018–2023holdingdurationonly; return,drawdown,winrate,payoffs,sampleandordersUNCHANGED. Openinggap/spreadexitsnowcounte-i completedsessions; intraday/closeexitcountse-i+1. Evente isactualexitindex,parent_eexplicitseparate; priorfilee retainedparentindex whileexitdatewasalreadycorrect. Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":327,"win_rate":47.09480122324159,"avg_win_pct":0.7343180414451267,"avg_loss_pct":0.9406512971323767,"mean_trade_pct":-0.1518278165790571,"return_pct":-3.9049073757491115,"drawdown_pct":-4.78559410583509,"annual_pct":-1.3224310717029675,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.073394495412844}

Samefrozen60/2/0.5ten-sessionentry/exit scheduleaslongcomparison, buthypothetical+.5longloser/-.5shortwinner perunitcapital; gross1, dailyclosemarks andactualopenentry/exit. Bothlegs fees1bp+5/15bpslip, shortborrowASSUMED3%annualactualcalendardays, nointerestrebate. Customcash/PnLdiagnostic, notvenueoffered/no shortorder; absentborrowavailabilityandmarginhistoricaldata precludetradeevenifpositive. Netnegativeall6era/costcells; thisETFadaptationdoesnotfalsifypublishedstockdistancepairs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"hedged_diagnostic","cost_bp_side":16,"return_pct":-2.4600638359964955,"drawdown_pct":-2.4600638359964955,"sample":85,"win_rate":7.0588235294117645,"avg_win_pct":0.3575082147542097,"avg_loss_pct":0.4056359352514467,"mean_trade_pct":-0.35176693642751805,"borrow_ann_pct":3,"gross_exposure":1,"actualsize":0}

Samefrozen60/2/0.5ten-sessionentry/exit scheduleaslongcomparison, buthypothetical+.5longloser/-.5shortwinner perunitcapital; gross1, dailyclosemarks andactualopenentry/exit. Bothlegs fees1bp+5/15bpslip, shortborrowASSUMED3%annualactualcalendardays, nointerestrebate. Customcash/PnLdiagnostic, notvenueoffered/no shortorder; absentborrowavailabilityandmarginhistoricaldata precludetradeevenifpositive. Netnegativeall6era/costcells; thisETFadaptationdoesnotfalsifypublishedstockdistancepairs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"hedged_diagnostic","cost_bp_side":6,"return_pct":-1.0645528814551164,"drawdown_pct":-1.1186810970603478,"sample":85,"win_rate":14.117647058823529,"avg_win_pct":0.3272119619333195,"avg_loss_pct":0.22979880039870312,"mean_trade_pct":-0.1511619868930058,"borrow_ann_pct":3,"gross_exposure":1,"actualsize":0}

Samefrozen60/2/0.5ten-sessionentry/exit scheduleaslongcomparison, buthypothetical+.5longloser/-.5shortwinner perunitcapital; gross1, dailyclosemarks andactualopenentry/exit. Bothlegs fees1bp+5/15bpslip, shortborrowASSUMED3%annualactualcalendardays, nointerestrebate. Customcash/PnLdiagnostic, notvenueoffered/no shortorder; absentborrowavailabilityandmarginhistoricaldata precludetradeevenifpositive. Netnegativeall6era/costcells; thisETFadaptationdoesnotfalsifypublishedstockdistancepairs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"hedged_diagnostic","cost_bp_side":16,"return_pct":-18.526144243475727,"drawdown_pct":-18.526144243475727,"sample":693,"win_rate":4.329004329004329,"avg_win_pct":0.17108738954442204,"avg_loss_pct":0.3789228104957214,"mean_trade_pct":-0.35511284512601815,"borrow_ann_pct":3,"gross_exposure":1,"actualsize":0}

Samefrozen60/2/0.5ten-sessionentry/exit scheduleaslongcomparison, buthypothetical+.5longloser/-.5shortwinner perunitcapital; gross1, dailyclosemarks andactualopenentry/exit. Bothlegs fees1bp+5/15bpslip, shortborrowASSUMED3%annualactualcalendardays, nointerestrebate. Customcash/PnLdiagnostic, notvenueoffered/no shortorder; absentborrowavailabilityandmarginhistoricaldata precludetradeevenifpositive. Netnegativeall6era/costcells; thisETFadaptationdoesnotfalsifypublishedstockdistancepairs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"hedged_diagnostic","cost_bp_side":6,"return_pct":-8.56982548022306,"drawdown_pct":-8.56982548022306,"sample":693,"win_rate":15.151515151515152,"avg_win_pct":0.1638875388825972,"avg_loss_pct":0.21198345841403582,"mean_trade_pct":-0.15503330730848536,"borrow_ann_pct":3,"gross_exposure":1,"actualsize":0}

Samefrozen60/2/0.5ten-sessionentry/exit scheduleaslongcomparison, buthypothetical+.5longloser/-.5shortwinner perunitcapital; gross1, dailyclosemarks andactualopenentry/exit. Bothlegs fees1bp+5/15bpslip, shortborrowASSUMED3%annualactualcalendardays, nointerestrebate. Customcash/PnLdiagnostic, notvenueoffered/no shortorder; absentborrowavailabilityandmarginhistoricaldata precludetradeevenifpositive. Netnegativeall6era/costcells; thisETFadaptationdoesnotfalsifypublishedstockdistancepairs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"hedged_diagnostic","cost_bp_side":16,"return_pct":-9.09268366461652,"drawdown_pct":-9.09268366461652,"sample":327,"win_rate":1.834862385321101,"avg_win_pct":0.14988536269445002,"avg_loss_pct":0.35907171311572045,"mean_trade_pct":-0.34973305117424935,"borrow_ann_pct":3,"gross_exposure":1,"actualsize":0}

Samefrozen60/2/0.5ten-sessionentry/exit scheduleaslongcomparison, buthypothetical+.5longloser/-.5shortwinner perunitcapital; gross1, dailyclosemarks andactualopenentry/exit. Bothlegs fees1bp+5/15bpslip, shortborrowASSUMED3%annualactualcalendardays, nointerestrebate. Customcash/PnLdiagnostic, notvenueoffered/no shortorder; absentborrowavailabilityandmarginhistoricaldata precludetradeevenifpositive. Netnegativeall6era/costcells; thisETFadaptationdoesnotfalsifypublishedstockdistancepairs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"hedged_diagnostic","cost_bp_side":6,"return_pct":-3.9994773698029396,"drawdown_pct":-3.9994773698029396,"sample":327,"win_rate":11.62079510703364,"avg_win_pct":0.11403664609731172,"avg_loss_pct":0.18432832887387857,"mean_trade_pct":-0.14965594646132435,"borrow_ann_pct":3,"gross_exposure":1,"actualsize":0}

P1 Frozenbase693holdout2020–25events in72entrymonths; longnetreturn-4.5294% vs partner-4.59854%, onidenticaldates andcosts. P2 Meanpairedtrade difference+.00749122%, trade-returncorrelation.9941244. Monthclusterbootstrap10000 CI[-.0263933,.0421721]%; additional3consecutive-monthcircularblockCI[-.0246642,.0397757]%; neither supports positiveconditionaledge. P3 DailyOLS longportfolio onpartnercontrol: beta1.009636, annualizedintercept+.025113%, Newey-West10lagalpha t.12717. SPY-onlyregressionbeta.29198,alpha-5.2025%annual,t-2.2804; conditionalpartner isclosercontrolthanmarket. P4 Swingmean-.133650%,3monthblockCI[-.249193,-.015275]%;stress-.333183%,CI[-.448336,-.216552]%. Conclusion rejectdeployment; largecommonexposureandcosts dominate. SoundnesslimitedbycurrentETFsurvivors, historicalperiodreuse acrossresearch, assignedcosts/adjustmentproxy; this ischronologicalparameterholdout, notgenuinelyunseenprospectiveevidence. Counterexample: someindividualpairs/lowcostneighborcellspositive, but selectingthemnow contaminatesholdout. Need independentprospectivedifferenceCI>0 beforechange. Fullnumdiagnostics archived. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":85,"win_rate":44.70588235294118,"avg_win_pct":0.944269809591242,"avg_loss_pct":1.3829640925000688,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3425536421533652,"return_pct":-2.3871083914865365,"drawdown_pct":-2.917901489156405,"annual_pct":-3.477892493775503,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.3176470588235296}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":85,"win_rate":49.411764705882355,"avg_win_pct":1.046315050016964,"avg_loss_pct":1.3047338220121734,"mean_trade_pct":-0.14303908524483494,"return_pct":-0.9904116127343765,"drawdown_pct":-1.9254991703749558,"annual_pct":-1.4477200319909067,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.3176470588235296}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":693,"win_rate":43.722943722943725,"avg_win_pct":1.0497530757657871,"avg_loss_pct":1.4076187714913904,"mean_trade_pct":-0.3331834616516719,"return_pct":-17.443805966494452,"drawdown_pct":-17.631252757542924,"annual_pct":-3.1525611975993906,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.513708513708514}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":693,"win_rate":47.33044733044733,"avg_win_pct":1.1622766582272532,"avg_loss_pct":1.298209026864466,"mean_trade_pct":-0.13365014560893357,"return_pct":-7.482735811444297,"drawdown_pct":-8.062771031087145,"annual_pct":-1.2912775159435896,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":4.547473508864641e-13,"mean_holding":2.513708513708514}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":327,"win_rate":36.08562691131498,"avg_win_pct":0.7219622563489604,"avg_loss_pct":0.9572955037660856,"mean_trade_pct":-0.35132481357166523,"return_pct":-8.991668540893727,"drawdown_pct":-9.243124263749024,"annual_pct":-3.099904585973068,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.458715596330275}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"train","mode":"swing","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":327,"win_rate":47.09480122324159,"avg_win_pct":0.7343180414451267,"avg_loss_pct":0.9406512971323767,"mean_trade_pct":-0.1518278165790571,"return_pct":-3.9049073757491115,"drawdown_pct":-4.78559410583509,"annual_pct":-1.3224310717029675,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":2.458715596330275}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":85,"win_rate":52.94117647058824,"avg_win_pct":2.6175583216331755,"avg_loss_pct":2.3567943518031274,"mean_trade_pct":0.2766864753102092,"return_pct":1.9458284757132294,"drawdown_pct":-2.57846801218814,"annual_pct":2.8637212348370245,"quarter_kelly":0.02642600864166955,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.352941176470588}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":85,"win_rate":55.294117647058826,"avg_win_pct":2.7062532806392277,"avg_loss_pct":2.2792484256888024,"mean_trade_pct":0.4774407531043438,"return_pct":3.4131564952848636,"drawdown_pct":-2.5210388928156524,"annual_pct":5.040125895823255,"quarter_kelly":0.04410532788264837,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.352941176470588}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"long","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":85,"win_rate":52.94117647058824,"avg_win_pct":2.562329390127019,"avg_loss_pct":2.265582336804676,"mean_trade_pct":0.2903709303944568,"return_pct":2.0453287831024625,"drawdown_pct":-2.036223298674822,"annual_pct":3.01084669553755,"quarter_kelly":0.028330757504606244,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.352941176470588}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"2026","mode":"long","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":6,"sample":85,"win_rate":56.470588235294116,"avg_win_pct":2.600690135441683,"avg_loss_pct":2.2455447329019464,"mean_trade_pct":0.4911526045156324,"return_pct":3.512769774118296,"drawdown_pct":-1.9209740678267306,"annual_pct":5.188400245693869,"quarter_kelly":0.04721367972892111,"reconciliation_error":2.2737367544323206e-13,"mean_holding":6.352941176470588}

Fixed12ETFpair cash-only adaptation, not exact Gatev replication. Preregistered notes1770/1773; corrected earlier spread exit note1776. Prior60close logratio z>=2abs buys losing leg at nextopen, exit signedz<=.5 nextopen or10sessions; parent partner-control identicalentry/exitdates. Swing adds prior20ADRstop1,target1.5, half+1R/BEfollowingday, earliest parentopenexit or5sessionclose, knownopengaps thenstopfirstdailyambiguity. Fees1bp+5/15bpslip/side. 12cash-separated1000USDsleeves, fractional diagnostic,0cashinterest. Custom orderaccounting reconciledvectorbt max4.55e-13; drawdown on dailyclosingequity, synthetic4phases onlybookkeeping. Train2017–19,holdout2020–25,2026throughSep9separate;2016warmup. CurrentETFsurvivors/reusedhistoricalera, not fullyprospectiveorpoint-in-timeuniverse; rawdividend/15minovernightexit/whole-share12sleeveexecution unvalidated. Actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"era":"holdout","mode":"partner","lookback":60,"threshold":2,"cost_bp_side":16,"sample":693,"win_rate":47.90764790764791,"avg_win_pct":2.2551265940507754,"avg_loss_pct":2.542255967016688,"mean_trade_pct":-0.24394282087758565,"return_pct":-14.93264960223425,"drawdown_pct":-20.514237421994743,"annual_pct":-2.6664044353981287,"quarter_kelly":0,"reconciliation_error":4.547473508864641e-13,"mean_holding":6.489177489177489}