Stats

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: test a distinct pre-event run-up rather than infer option profit from earnings gaps. Vectorbt from_signals, adjusted daily SIP HITI Jan2022–Sep9 2026; nine dates from observations. Entry open T-2,T-3,T-5 sessions relative to AMC release; exit close T-1. $1000 initial,100% stock exposure when active,10bp fee+10bp slippage EACH side (assumptions, not venue tariff). Six pre2026 train,three2026 holdout. T2 train-0.9083%,DD7.8305%,win33.33%; holdout+2.1345%,DD1.3973%,win66.67%. T3 train+.8830%,DD7.0722%,win50%; holdout-4.7624%,DD5.3978%,win33.33%. Training-best T5 +4.2836%,DD10.8128%,win50%; holdout-2.6317%,DD5.3640%,win66.67%. No holdout-based selection; all cells retained. Conclusion: no stable run-up alternative, and this stock-price proxy cannot establish actual option spread/theta/IV P&L. Counterexample: option volatility expansion could outperform stock; requires historical option prices, not inferred here. Daily signal marks do not replicate venue15min option exits. All historical primary URLs stored with event observations. Upcoming date https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/. Scripts analyze.py/backtest_hiti.py and raw JSON saved local; no claimed trading backtest of options.

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises from June15Q2 and Aug4preliminary issuer releases: growth disclosed; incremental cash realization unknown. First order: Sep14 cash and guidance surprise could reprice HITI. Second order: stronger paid conversion could fund stores and supplier purchases internally; weak conversion could require borrowing/equity despite adjustedEBITDA. Third order: profitable scale could pressure rivals and improve supplier throughput; financed growth without returns could dilute equity and favor lenders. Conditional chains, no peer earnings or flow probabilities measured. Who benefits: customers from discounts, management from expansion narrative, lenders only if cash services debt. Strong counterargument: August guidance reduces surprise while German regulatory shifts can dominate results. No directional probability upgrade; N9coverage11.1% binding. Sources https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-announces-preliminary-q3-2026-guidance/ ; https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-featuring-record-revenue-of-179-3mm-and-adjusted-ebitda-of-13-9mm/

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: (1) June15 issuer Q2 for Apr30 reports CAD179.3m revenue,13.9m adjustedEBITDA but1.5m FCF vs4.9m YoY:10.79% conversion and-69.39% FCF despite+30% sales. (2) Aug4 issuer already forecasts Q3 revenue/grossprofit/EBITDA growth >=30/27/43%; June/July Canadian SSS positive and German >10tonnes,+33%seq disclosed. (3) Sep14 final must surprise beyond preliminary numbers. Cash36.5m incl restricted vs46.4m sequential is a working-capital/financing constraint, not insolvency inference. Counterexample to bearish cash thesis: working capital may unwind; to bullish growth thesis: acquisitions may dilute returns. Management benefits from scale and adjusted profit narrative; independent paid-invoice confirmation not collected. Conclusion: monitor conversion. Current share-count/FX/debt bridge to EV unvalidated; valuation gap named. Sources https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-reports-second-quarter-2026-financial-results-featuring-record-revenue-of-179-3mm-and-adjusted-ebitda-of-13-9mm/ and https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-announces-preliminary-q3-2026-guidance/ ; event https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: completed Sep9close2.57 exceeds SMA20 2.479 and SMA50 2.3148; RSI14 Wilder60.1984, ATR14 .0859326, annualRV20 .357765, 20sessionreturn+9.8291%. Prior20session range2.305–2.70. Combining indicators describes upward trend with positive momentum, not measured option edge. Delayed Sep10 2.555 below Sep9close, still above averages. Call intrinsic breakeven2.81 above recent2.70 high; put2.32 near2.305 low. Counterexample: earnings could break either range; untested levels cannot replace N9coverage. No indicator-selected variant traded or claimed validated. Arithmetic is descriptive, trading inference unsound without independent option history. Primary date https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/; daily SIP bars2022–Sep9 for indicators, Sep10partial excluded.

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: (1) issuer https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ confirms Sep14 AMC; Oct16 expiry outlasts by32days. (2) Nine historical earnings AMC dates and bars recorded separately: Mar15/Jun13/Sep16 2024; Jan29/Mar17/Jun16 2025; Jan29/Mar17/Jun15 2026. Release-day close to next-session open/close, adjusted SIP daily bars. (3) A purchased direction must cover strike distance plus premium in >=40%, not merely move either way. Conclusion: neither direction qualifies. Validity holds conditional on comparable daily sessions; soundness limited by N9, price staleness, unverified minute reconstruction and Aug4 preannouncement. Counterexamples: residual option time value could permit resale profits without intrinsic coverage; changed German exposure could enlarge moves. Neither supplies a documented3x expected option payoff. Chronological six pre2026 events and three2026 holdouts: call0/6 then1/3; put1/6 then0/3. Excluded Sep15 2025 solely because AMC scheduling source was not recovered, not because of its +.8152% close response; preliminary N10 also failed1/10 each. Sample mixes quarters/business regimes. No dynamic fitting; no trade. Data /data/stock-bars?symbols=HITI&timeframe=1Day&start=2022-01-01&end=2026-09-10T19:20:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all; option_contracts.