Stats

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Primary Nasdaq listing census13176non-testunique;384nonstandardstrings excluded fromAPI,12792requested,12147dailybars,645missing. FoursecondaryweeklycalendarsSep14–Oct5 produced147USlistedleads,allpriced; calendarcoverageincomplete andestimateddatescorrectedfromissuer. 31distinctoptioncatalogs probed, notall13176fullyeventtested. 2. BB S7.54 Oct2C8 .40/P7 .32 require +/-11.405836%;closerP7.5 .52 costs52>51.0594. Historicaltimingpagesempty200/429andtimeout; verifiedsamekindN<8,coverageunknown, no3xexpectedpayout. Cutaccessworkat~20min. ABAT S2.56 C3 .15 needs23.046875%;P3 .57failscap; Aug20preliminaryresultsalreadypublic,futureearningsdateunverified. MANUC25 .35/S20.02 needs26.6234%; RZLTC7.5 .24/S4.17 needs85.6115%; noverified8eventedge. 3. Foreignwatch8quotes includes9961.HK,7203.T,SAP.DE,NXT.L,TLX.AX,BTC,ETH,SOL; sample notglobalcensus. TCOMoffersUSlistedglobaldatedexposure;NXT.Lcatalogerror,TLXnoOctcontracts. Crypto nativeoptionsnotoffered; IBIT/ETHA affordablelegs lackprimarydatedsamekind8eventstudy, no spot substitute. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt https://www.earningstoday.com/earnings-calendar/weekly/2026-09-14 ; option_contracts and venuebars; https://blackberry-1000581.suite.accessnewswire.com/ ; https://investors.americanbatterytechnology.com/ . 4. Incomplete evidence isuntested not0%winrate. Cashchosenbecausevalidatedpayoffabsent,notbecausebroadmarketslackvolatility. Noorder, no newfund justified.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. PLAY weakvisits -> lowerstorecash -> reducednewstore/vendororders -> landlordsandcreditorscapturemorecash; countercasefoodgrowth/turnaroundstabilizevisits. 2. VRAimprovedsellthrough -> lessinventorycashlocked -> reinvestbrand/distribution -> supplierandshareholderrecovery; countercasepromotiondependentgrowthreversesmargin. 3. SFIXclientgrowth -> betterfixedcostabsorption -> largerFCF/buybackcapacity -> equityrerating; countercasehigheradspend/returnsconsumeincrementalrevenue. 4. TCOMregulatoryconstraints -> lowermerchanttakeorcompliancecost -> hotelbargainingpower -> marginmixandcrossbordercapitalallocationchange; fullJulydecisionunread so no assertednewlaw effect. Sources/baselines: https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results https://investors.verabradley.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-bradley-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-results https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx https://investors.trip.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tripcom-group-limited-reports-unaudited-first-quarter-2026 These are conditional first/second/thirdordereffects, not measured probabilities. Factsstopatreportedfinancials;pricedimprovementandmarketreactionunknown. Allfourstrikesfaildirectionalcoverage; no crosscompanycorrelation assumedindependent and no order.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Baselines: PLAY: June15 issuer Q1FY26: revenue559.2m(-1.5%);comps-5.4%;NI5.7mvs21.7;AdjEBITDA123.2mvs136.1;adjustedFCF25.3mvs-58.8 includes landlordpayments/saleleasebackproceeds; liquidity499.1mincludesrevolver. Entertainment345.1vs366.6m;food214.1vs201.1m. Management positivecompsremainderFY/FCF>100m forecasts. Issuerclosestfinancialsource, promotional framing; periodQ1 notcurrentquarter. https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results VRA: June11 issuer Q1FY27: revenue55.7mvs51.7(+7.8%);directcomps+13.4%;GM51.8%vs44.1GAAP/47.5adjusted;SG&A34.1m61.3%revenue,adjusted32.7m58.8%;oploss4.6mvs17.9,adjusted3.3vs13.6;cash12.5m,noABLborrow;inventory73mvs99.2;capex.3mvs1.9. FYrevenue255–270m forecast,adjustedoplossimprovement>=50%from21.7m. Issuerprimary, turnaroundframing; historicalsample hasbusinessregimechanges. https://investors.verabradley.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-bradley-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-results SFIX: June10 issuer Q3endedMay2: revenue340.3m+4.7%;clients2.309m,+.9%QoQ/-1.9%YoY;revenue/client578+6.6%;GM43.7%-50bp;netloss1.5m;AdjEBITDA13.2m;CFO11.8m/FCF6.5m;buybacks15.1m4.5mshares;cash+investments229.4m,no debt. Balance cash87.336m,shortinvestments99.478,long42.586m. Q4guide322–327mrev,AdjEBITDA7–10m. Primaryfinancials managementpositiveframing; forecastnotoutcome. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx TCOM: June24 issuer Q1FY26: revenue16.2bnRMB+17%;internationalgrossbookings+65%,inbound+90%;costrevenue+23%,marketing+25%;NI2.5bnvs4.3;AdjEBITDA4.8vs4.2;adjustedNI3.9vs4.2;cash+restricted+investments104bn notcashalone. Q2growth3–8% preliminaryforecast alreadypublic. JanuarySAMRinvestigation describedJune butJuly25penaltyheadline inissuerindex meansJuneongoingstatusnotcurrent; fullJulytermsunrecovered. OneADS=oneordinary. Primaryissuerpositivebias. https://investors.trip.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tripcom-group-limited-reports-unaudited-first-quarter-2026 2. PLAY's weakcomps arebearish, but improvedcash partlyfinancinglikeproceeds, requiringseparation; VRA's improvingcomps andlowerinventory counterbear extrapolation. SFIXclientsstilldownYoY butsequentialgrowth/debtfreecashcounterdistress; buybacks15.1m exceedquarterFCF6.5m by8.6m. TCOMbookinggrowthoutpacesprofit, butregulatorytermsJulygap prevents currentfinevaluation. 3. No verifiedcurrentEV/sharecount orfullyadjustedearningsmultiples built, so valuationunknown ratherthancheapasserted. Beneficiaries: landlordsfinancePLAY, customersandvendorsbenefitfromturnaroundspending;shareholdersneedcashafterreinvestment. These facts do notsatisfyoptionpayoffgate; counterexamplesrewriteone-sidedbearprior. Noorder.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. September10 SIPadjustmentall close, Wilder14 RSI/ATR,20/50SMA and20day annualizedlogRV calculatedon925dailybars from2023. [{"symbol":"PLAY","S":8.17,"SMA20":9.462499999999999,"SMA50":10.0246,"RSI14":35.73768198709139,"ATR14":0.5767722089866175,"prior20low":8.045,"prior20high":11.1,"RV20_ann_pct":69.80237704694696},{"symbol":"TCOM","S":38.7,"SMA20":43.9245,"SMA50":43.9968,"RSI14":22.724174520833685,"ATR14":1.0784470869839355,"prior20low":39,"prior20high":46.665,"RV20_ann_pct":29.064910855065957},{"symbol":"VRA","S":3.05,"SMA20":3.2239999999999993,"SMA50":3.4952000000000005,"RSI14":38.175466344680615,"ATR14":0.16408705048172534,"prior20low":3.04,"prior20high":3.47,"RV20_ann_pct":51.83765867720069},{"symbol":"SFIX","S":2.85,"SMA20":3.1922499999999996,"SMA50":3.600799999999999,"RSI14":29.483216244943506,"ATR14":0.1491626120601394,"prior20low":2.88,"prior20high":3.775,"RV20_ann_pct":41.72599346668795}] 2. Allbelow20/50SMA; TCOM38.70 belowprior20low39 andSFIX2.85 below2.88; oversoldRSI22.72/29.48 cancontinue orreverse. No prediction assigned from descriptiveconfluence. 3. Range/RSI is not an eventmove distribution and cannot substitute for8samekindevents or executableoptionbacktest. Counterexampleoversoldbounces harmputs. Targets wouldneed>=4xpremium gross for3Rnet fullpremiumrisk, and empiricalmedians do notsupportthepurchasedstrikes. No stop/target invented for rejected orders.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Map historic eventclose returns tocurrentS; putintrinsic=max(K-Snext,0), dividepremium; residual timevalue unmodeled, so this is a stressfloor NOT expected traded-option price. 2. NumPy seed911,10000iid20ticketpaths,3%equitypremiumcompounded; no optionfees or serialdependence, no forecasts beyond empiricalsample. [{"symbol":"PLAY","N":12,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.11141982422518588,"max_intrinsic_multiple":0.9413206521739124,"coverage":0,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-41.95744298289101,"p05_return":-44.955033349458404,"profit_odds":0,"median_max_drawdown":41.95744298289101},{"symbol":"TCOM","N":8,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.48520541234206205,"max_intrinsic_multiple":2.408972282217414,"coverage":2,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-28.24022154569934,"p05_return":-38.907738008078596,"profit_odds":0.0073,"median_max_drawdown":29.4653494506684},{"symbol":"VRA","N":12,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.028368794326241547,"max_intrinsic_multiple":0.34042553191489855,"coverage":0,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-44.46945633168682,"p05_return":-45.62056570732529,"profit_odds":0,"median_max_drawdown":44.46945633168682},{"symbol":"SFIX","N":8,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.9535745761978892,"max_intrinsic_multiple":5.165333333333332,"coverage":2,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-6.249441441107351,"p05_return":-31.98054166018457,"profit_odds":0.3921,"median_max_drawdown":20.17009498600003}] 3. Gridlogutility fullKelly0 for all floor distributions; halfKelly0. SFIX has one5.1653xgross scenario but mean.95357x, insufficient documented3xexpectedpayout. Countercase residualtimevalue raises actualreturns, but magnitude unverified. Tail dependence and capital depletion could worsen stress. Current allocation0; account absolute premiumcap51.0594, normal25.5297, conviction42.5495; three51.0594premiums exactly18%, so use strictlyless if absolute caps ever bind.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. Premises: 1. Vectorbt daily close-marked portfolio initial1000, fullstocknotional; long/short direction and2/3/5-session lag sweep; entry event-session-index minuslag open, exit previous-sessionclose. Short is analytical proxy only. 2. Select best cumulative trainingreturn, then evaluate last2chronological events independently; fees10bp andslippage10bp eachside assumptions notvenuefee claim. 3. Train selected {"symbol":"SFIX","lag":5,"direction":"long","phase":"train","sample":6,"return":20.80233886442895,"drawdown":10.53865980656219,"win_rate":50}; heldout {"symbol":"SFIX","lag":5,"direction":"long","phase":"holdout","sample":2,"return":9.472963631986762,"drawdown":6.811989100817417,"win_rate":100}. Twoholdout trades cannot establish stable expectancy; positive underlyingproxy doesnot model optiontheta/vega/spread. No actual-option historicalreturns, no adopt. Counterexample positive stockdirection can coexist with optionloss; default pre-eventexit requires actualoptionprices. No current technical screener strategy adopted.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. Premises: 1. Vectorbt daily close-marked portfolio initial1000, fullstocknotional; long/short direction and2/3/5-session lag sweep; entry event-session-index minuslag open, exit previous-sessionclose. Short is analytical proxy only. 2. Select best cumulative trainingreturn, then evaluate last2chronological events independently; fees10bp andslippage10bp eachside assumptions notvenuefee claim. 3. Train selected {"symbol":"TCOM","lag":5,"direction":"short","phase":"train","sample":6,"return":2.879916876522566,"drawdown":11.273826369739947,"win_rate":50}; heldout {"symbol":"TCOM","lag":5,"direction":"short","phase":"holdout","sample":2,"return":6.670505405066467,"drawdown":2.7224173746326796,"win_rate":100}. Twoholdout trades cannot establish stable expectancy; positive underlyingproxy doesnot model optiontheta/vega/spread. No actual-option historicalreturns, no adopt. Counterexample positive stockdirection can coexist with optionloss; default pre-eventexit requires actualoptionprices. No current technical screener strategy adopted.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. Premises: 1. Vectorbt daily close-marked portfolio initial1000, fullstocknotional; long/short direction and2/3/5-session lag sweep; entry event-session-index minuslag open, exit previous-sessionclose. Short is analytical proxy only. 2. Select best cumulative trainingreturn, then evaluate last2chronological events independently; fees10bp andslippage10bp eachside assumptions notvenuefee claim. 3. Train selected {"symbol":"VRA","lag":2,"direction":"short","phase":"train","sample":10,"return":36.750289792162945,"drawdown":18.54854240175341,"win_rate":70}; heldout {"symbol":"VRA","lag":2,"direction":"short","phase":"holdout","sample":2,"return":5.359036337108159,"drawdown":3.32490332490335,"win_rate":100}. Twoholdout trades cannot establish stable expectancy; positive underlyingproxy doesnot model optiontheta/vega/spread. No actual-option historicalreturns, no adopt. Counterexample positive stockdirection can coexist with optionloss; default pre-eventexit requires actualoptionprices. No current technical screener strategy adopted.

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. Premises: 1. Vectorbt daily close-marked portfolio initial1000, fullstocknotional; long/short direction and2/3/5-session lag sweep; entry event-session-index minuslag open, exit previous-sessionclose. Short is analytical proxy only. 2. Select best cumulative trainingreturn, then evaluate last2chronological events independently; fees10bp andslippage10bp eachside assumptions notvenuefee claim. 3. Train selected {"symbol":"PLAY","lag":2,"direction":"long","phase":"train","sample":10,"return":0.8106268728489112,"drawdown":14.359209983230093,"win_rate":40}; heldout {"symbol":"PLAY","lag":2,"direction":"long","phase":"holdout","sample":2,"return":-4.691178056384262,"drawdown":8.415253593928963,"win_rate":50}. Twoholdout trades cannot establish stable expectancy; positive underlyingproxy doesnot model optiontheta/vega/spread. No actual-option historicalreturns, no adopt. Counterexample positive stockdirection can coexist with optionloss; default pre-eventexit requires actualoptionprices. No current technical screener strategy adopted.

Edge test: S38.70 Oct16 C45 .32/P35 .48 Sep10 cost$32/$48; require +17.105943%/-10.801034%;0/8calls,2/8puts=25%; medianabsolute4.590973%. Sep15AMC, defaultSep14exit. https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf 1. Use fixed previous close to first post-release daily close horizon; no hindsight intraday lows. 2. Primary issuer scheduling originals and each daily response saved in observations; SIP adjustment=all daily bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Accessible historical schedules selected without return filtering; SFIX lacks Dec2024/Mar2025 and TCOM lacks verified Aug2024/May2025 timing, so sample is incomplete, not representative by assertion. 3. Current catalog closes checked against delayed option-bars; neither is an executable ask or synchronized quote. Coverage is below40% and no documented actual-option expected payout>=3x. Hurdle exceeds absolute median, so no hold-through exception. ExpiryOct16 exceeds event by>=7days. Counterexample: residual option time value can pay despite absent intrinsic coverage, but no costed history establishes it. Valid conditional rejection; soundness limited by stale marks, sparse samples and regime changes. Required evidence to reconsider: nearer affordable current contract with >=40% directional coverage or documented3xexpectedpayoff, then costs/exits. No order.

Edge test: S2.85 Oct16 P2.5 .15 Sep9 costs$15; requires -17.543860%,2/8=25%; medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep23AMC, defaultSep22exit. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx 1. Use fixed previous close to first post-release daily close horizon; no hindsight intraday lows. 2. Primary issuer scheduling originals and each daily response saved in observations; SIP adjustment=all daily bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Accessible historical schedules selected without return filtering; SFIX lacks Dec2024/Mar2025 and TCOM lacks verified Aug2024/May2025 timing, so sample is incomplete, not representative by assertion. 3. Current catalog closes checked against delayed option-bars; neither is an executable ask or synchronized quote. Coverage is below40% and no documented actual-option expected payout>=3x. Hurdle exceeds absolute median, so no hold-through exception. ExpiryOct16 exceeds event by>=7days. Counterexample: residual option time value can pay despite absent intrinsic coverage, but no costed history establishes it. Valid conditional rejection; soundness limited by stale marks, sparse samples and regime changes. Required evidence to reconsider: nearer affordable current contract with >=40% directional coverage or documented3xexpectedpayoff, then costs/exits. No order.

Edge test: S3.05 Oct16 P2.5 .10 Sep9 costs$10; requires -21.311475%, 0/12 closes; median absolute10.350471%. Sep15 08ET release, last-session exitSep14. https://investors.verabradley.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-bradley-inc-announces-reporting-date-second-quarter-1 1. Use fixed previous close to first post-release daily close horizon; no hindsight intraday lows. 2. Primary issuer scheduling originals and each daily response saved in observations; SIP adjustment=all daily bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Accessible historical schedules selected without return filtering; SFIX lacks Dec2024/Mar2025 and TCOM lacks verified Aug2024/May2025 timing, so sample is incomplete, not representative by assertion. 3. Current catalog closes checked against delayed option-bars; neither is an executable ask or synchronized quote. Coverage is below40% and no documented actual-option expected payout>=3x. Hurdle exceeds absolute median, so no hold-through exception. ExpiryOct16 exceeds event by>=7days. Counterexample: residual option time value can pay despite absent intrinsic coverage, but no costed history establishes it. Valid conditional rejection; soundness limited by stale marks, sparse samples and regime changes. Required evidence to reconsider: nearer affordable current contract with >=40% directional coverage or documented3xexpectedpayoff, then costs/exits. No order.

Edge test: Twelve chronological issuer-confirmed AMC earnings fromSep2023–Jun2026. Daily SIP adjustmentall eventclose to nextsessionclose: median absolute10.624339%, range-20.081522% to+17.742559%. Sep10S8.17, Oct16C10 catalog.45Sep9/currentdelayedbar.40Sep10 implies+27.294982%; Oct16P7 catalog.47Sep9/currentdelayed.50Sep10 implies-20.440636%. Bothcover0/12 closingresponses (<40%); no documented expectedoptionpayoff>=3xpremium. Strike7 put distance14.320685% pluspremium6.119951% consumes eventtail. Premises:1 datesfrom12primaryschedules saved observations;2 daily responses frozen atclose, not bestlow;3 contractexpiry32days afterSep14event satisfies weekbuffer but residualvalue unmodeled. Valid inference: this empirical hurdle fails. Notvalid to infer actualoptionprice equalsintrinsic or 0%futurewinprobability. Counterexample future turnaround shock/IV expansion could exceedhistory, needs independentcostedvaluation. Priors no direction selectedfromoutcome; chronologicalarchivefourpages withoutreturnfilter; postpandemic/capitalstructure/regime shifts limitexchangeability. Hypothetical defaultexitSep11RTH, noholdthrough: requiredmove exceedsmedian9.816297pp put/16.670642pp call. No liveorder. Sources issuer https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 and /data/stock-bars,/data/option-bars; catalog via option_contracts.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Start state: account equity850.99, Convex cash178.71, no positions, queued orders or closed trades. Goal: an affordable dated-event long call/put with defensible asymmetric payoff. Binding constraint is validated payoff and whole-contract price, not operator profit need. Premises: 1 MLKN referenceP17.5 $28, N8 coverage12.5%; closest pricedP20$71 fails51.0594cap. Three stock-proxy holdouts allnegative; no positive calibratedKelly. 2 HITI1/9 close coverage and hurdle exceedsmedian by4.271120pp(call)/3.099245pp(put); hindsightlow4/9doesnotauthorizehold-through. 3 HAINK1 .37 maxgross2.702703x, below4xoptionprice neededfornet3Rfullpremiumrisk; missing8eventstudy meansuntested. 4 ZUMZalreadyreported; .90precloseput=$90 failscap, .36oldprice notexecutableentry. 5 GRALaffordableP40.35 requires48.8783%fall, N0samekindvalidatedsample; cheapestpricedcall80dollarsbeyondcap. SRRKmin55>cap; N0. 6 EPMC2.5 .95Aug26cost95;C5 .03Aug24needs30.989583%, N0. ACB/SNDLaffordablelegs lackverifiedfutureprimarydate, N0. Each preliminaryrejection isnotclaimedfailedempiricaltest. Conclusion: allocation0 and cash178.71 forfailedeligibility/payoff. Strongcounterargument: unseenfat-tailwinnercouldpayforseries; an honestroughestimatewouldsufficeonlyaftermandategate, andnonequalifies. Normalpremium<=3%25.5297, highconviction<=5%42.5495, absolute6%51.0594, max3positions; three5%tickets lose15%, below18%. MLKN28=3.2903% andno fractionalcontractquarterprobe. No inventedstopsororders; fullpremiumislossbudget. Hypotheticalnet3RtargetMLKN1.12 requiresintrinsicstock16.38, notdefendedliveforecast. Defaultpre-eventexit MLKNSep21, HITI/HAINSep11RTH; Oct16 expiriesoutlastdates>=week. CurrentMLKNhurdleexceedsmedian6.465662pp, so noholdexception. Sources primarydates23053–61/23066–73, option_contracts, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. Monitors231resolved,220/221retained,242/243MLKNand24402UTCadded,GRAL/SRRKreviewadded. Job19222UTCactualENDverified; midnightreceiptpending, notassumedfailed. Testednewjob199240min72runs collectsMLKN/ZUMZstockandoptions throughSep23; livecompletionmustbeaudited. No outside-mandate operation withindependentedgefound; noFUNDproposal.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: map8historicclosemoves toS20.8 thenP17.5intrinsic=max(17.5-Snext,0); divideby.28premium, subtract1. Sevenzerointrinsicoutcomesandone4.839577xpayout =>mean.604947x. This is stressfloor, notexpectedactualOct16optionprice. NumPyseed911,10000iidbootstrap20ticketpaths,3%equitypremiumcompounded; medianreturn-28.12351%,5thpercentile-45.62057%,profitodds9.38%. Fractions0–6% in.01ppsteps optimizingmeanloggrowth, halfKelly0. Smallselectedsamplemissesunseentails/regimedependence; transactioncostsandresidualtimevalueexcluded. Counterexample: remaining24+daystimevaluecan materiallychangeactualreturns, so simulationdoesnotproveoptionfairvalue. Currentgate1/8failsindependently, allocation0; no calibratedpositiveKellyestimateavailable. Contract28dollars=3.2903%account exceedsnormal3%25.5297; onlyhighconviction5%42.5495couldadmitone, and convictionnotestablished. A quarterofacappedwholecontractisnotpurchasable. 3Rnettargetwouldbe4*.28=1.12optionprice; intrinsicrequiresstock<=16.38(-21.25%), only1/8historicalcloses, noforecasttargetplaced. HITIbootstrapcoverage100000resamples1.195%reach40% isfrequencyuncertainty, notoptiontradeodds. Sources option_contracts; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuerMLKNdates23055/23066–73.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: testwhetherbearishpre-eventstockpathsupportsputrun-up, independentofearningsgap. Vectorbt Portfolio.from_signals short_entries/short_exits, 1000initialcash, fullstocknotional,10bpfees+10bpslippageeachside(assumptionsnotvenuetariff), entryT-2/T-3/T-5open beforeAMCday, exitT-1close. Six2024–25events train, two2026 holdout; noholdoutselection. Fullresults [{"lag":2,"phase":"train","return":-3.997024599531062,"drawdown":6.0269945892936665,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6},{"lag":2,"phase":"holdout","return":-1.973521635520217,"drawdown":4.115226417384676,"win_rate":50,"sample":2},{"lag":3,"phase":"train","return":-8.454414289599754,"drawdown":9.786059101244893,"win_rate":33.33333333333333,"sample":6},{"lag":3,"phase":"holdout","return":-7.388058106205415,"drawdown":10.096569869161353,"win_rate":0,"sample":2},{"lag":5,"phase":"train","return":-8.350924632949239,"drawdown":9.444998722783293,"win_rate":50,"sample":6},{"lag":5,"phase":"holdout","return":-10.13648642032798,"drawdown":12.642233751916987,"win_rate":0,"sample":2}]. Training-bestT2 loses3.9970%; holdout-1.973522%,DD4.115226%,win50%,N2. Allvariantslosebothwindows. A stockshortproxy is researchonly: venueandmandatepermitlongoptions, notactualshortposition. It doesnotmodel optionIV/theta/spreads, borrowcost, or15minstops; noindependentpositiveoptionedge. CurrentBMOtimingdiffersfromhistoricAMC, so no claimofidenticalexecution. Counterexample: optionvolatilityexpansioncouldoutperformstock; historicaloptionpricesneeded. SerializationinitiallyfailedonNumPyint64; fixedexplicitint and reranNUMBA_DISABLE_JIT=1, successfulJSON. Noeconomicschanged. Source upcoming https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast ; eightprimaryschedules23066–73; stock-bars SIPadjustmentall675bars2024–Sep10. No backtestCLItechnicalruletrusted, vectorbtcustomdatedtestused.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises andthreeordersofeffects, conditionalnotmeasuredforecasts: MLKN (1) weakerordersandexpensegrowthcouldcauseearningsguidancecut, (2) lessoperatingcashcouldreducebuybacks/storecapexandsupplierorders, (3) financingcostsorbargainingpowercouldshiftvaluefromequitytocreditors. Countercase pullforwardnormalizationandsalespricingrestorecash. Who benefits fromcurrentgrowthstrategy: storelandlords/suppliersandmanagementgrowthobjectives, onlyprofitableconversionbenefitsequity. ZUMZ (1) negativecompspressuregrossprofit, (2) inventorymarkdownsandcashpreservationchangebrandorders, (3) storeclosuresorcapitalrestraintcouldtransferdemandtorivals; countercase holidayrecovery. HITI (1) finalcashconversionratherthanpreannouncedgrowthdrivesincrementalnews, (2) weakconversionneedsfinancingforexpansion, (3) dilutioncouldletscalegrowwhileper-sharevaluefalls; countercase workingcapitalunwind. SRRK (1) alternatefacilityapproval/delaychangeslaunchtiming, (2) availabilitychangescommercialspendingandpatientaccess, (3) cashrunwayandcompetitivetimingchange; no medicalefficacyjudgmentorapprovaloddsinferred. Strongbearcaseagainstcash: onebinarywinnercanoutweighmanysmallpremiums; counterargumenttowaitingiscorrectinprinciple butrequireseligiblepayoff, notmonthlyshortfall. Currentknownpremiumcapsnormal25.5297/highconviction42.5495/absolute51.0594 constrainwholecontracts; missedeventsnotproofexpectedvalue. Sources sameissueroriginals inanalysisfundamental andobservations23053–62, especially https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-06-24-MillerKnoll,-Inc-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results and https://ir.zumiez.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zumiez-inc-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results .

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. No openholdings orqueuedorders: this is an attackonwatchlistandcash, notexitmaintenance. Numberedpremises: 1 MLKNFY2026sales+4.7% butCFO199.9mvs209.3m(-4.4912%), netdebt1083m/covenantEBITDA387.4m=2.80x. Q4organicorders-6.9%, expensesrise: strongestbear is growthfailingtocoverstoreinvestmentandinterest. Counterexample: prior55–60morderpullforward distortscomparison;571.7mliquidity includesrevolver, maturities25.1mFY27 arefarbelowliquidity, notimminentdistress. Cash167.7m distinctfromliquidity. Do not mislabel115.6minvestingoutflowasactualcapex; FY27plannedcapex125–135m only. 2 ZUMZ H1CFO-27.276m/capex4.880m yieldsFCF-32.156m andQTDcomps-3.5%; strongestbear weakdemandplusbuybacks23.2mQ2at19.30 erodescashflexibility. Counterexample: H1seasonality/holidayrecovery canreverseworkingcapital. 3 HITI priorQ2FCF1.5mversusEBITDA13.9m (10.79%) andAug4preannouncement makegrowthheadlineinsufficient; counterexample cashunwind. 4 SRRKAug21issueralternatefacilityprogress doesnotguaranteeapproval; strongestbear is regulatorydelayandadditionalburn, counterexample acceptedalternatefacilitycouldenablelaunch. No quantitativeapprovalprobabilityclaimed. Validity: operatingweaknesscanraiseequityrisk; soundnesslimit: no verifiedmarketexpectation/currentEVoroptionvaluebridge, so bearishfundamentalsdo notprovecheapputs. Sources https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-06-24-MillerKnoll,-Inc-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Results ; https://ir.zumiez.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zumiez-inc-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results ; HITI primaryQ2 andAug4URLs inobservations22942–43; https://scholarrock.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-provides-update-global-apitegromab-regulatory . Factsfromissueroriginals, assumptionslimitedtoconsequenceinferences.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: Sep10completedSIP daily descriptors storedfor9symbols inobservations23025–33. MLKN20.8 belowSMA20 22.71575, day-3.9261%, ADR20 .79, ATR14simple .8025; putstrike17.5 is4.1772ADRbelowspot, break-even17.22 is4.5316ADRbelow. HITI2.56 aboveSMA20 2.4905 despite-.3891%day; ADR.07847 andannualRV20 35.764%, so trend alone doesnotchooseputdirection. HAINannualRV141.625% doesnotremove standardputK1/.37 maximum2.7027xpayout. ZUMZclosed16.71 belowSMA18.02175 beforeAH13.925, but fallalreadyoccurred. GRAL77.56 nearSMA77.2225/ADR4.4487; affordableK40P.35 requires48.8783%fall, which indicatorvolatilitydoesnotestablish. SRRK55.67 day+1.9224%, nearestK55put3.70/call4.30 cost370/430, beyondcap. EPM3.84 day+4.0650%; cheapK5C.03 requires30.9896%rise. ACB3.73 andSNDL1.34 belowSMA3.891/1.34875; verifieddatedeventmissing. Validity: technicalregimes are context, not8eventedge; counterexample: pricedbinaryevent dwarfs normalADR. No stops/targetsreset because noholdings; no technicalruletraded. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: (1) MLKN sample is eight accessible issuer scheduling originals June2024–June2026, explicitly AMC; current Sep22BMO changes overnight timing. (2) SignedMLKN closes=1.038637,-5.460150,10.654314,12.522361,-10.837438,7.922535,-22.380200,12.046784%; mean+.688355%, medianabs10.745876%. Sixpre2026 training/two2026holdout: all coverage comes fromMar2026; no direction chosen from currentresults. (3) AtS20.8 historicalintrinsicmean .604947xpremium, maximum4.839577x, a lower-bound scenario excluding remainingtimevalue, not actual optionvalue. Valid inference present directionalcoveragefails; unsound inference would be that actualoptionsmustlose orintradaylowfillswereavailable. Strongcounterexample: persistent post-eventvariance/residualtimevalue could produce profitable optionexits despiteintrinsicshortfall; historicaloptionpricesneeded. HITI1/9 Wilson95CI1.989–43.501% crosses40, so smallsampleuncertainty not proofnegativeEV; 100000bootstrapresamples reach40% in1.195%, notposterior odds. ZUMZlatestprecloseput.90 vsstale.36, latestAH13.925 implies1.075intrinsic=1.194444x .90, notoptionreturn. Sources: eachMLKNprimaryURL saved with8eventobservations; upcoming https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast ; HITI https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars .

Edge reference: frozen HITI N9 issuer-dated earnings daily responses, median absolute5.494505%; at S2.56 Oct16K2.5 C.31 requires+9.765625%,P.16 requires-8.593750%,each1/9=11.111%<40%; no >=3x expected-payoff mispricing documented. HAIN/EPM/ZUMZ have N0 validated comparable-event samples in this review, meaning untested, not0% wins. Start850.99equity,178.71Convexcash,0positions/queuedorders/trades verified query_trades. Goalqualifyingdatedeventlongoption; bindingconstraintsRTHclosed andpayoffnotvalidated. Normalpremium3%=25.5297;highconviction5%=42.5495;mandateabsolute6%=51.0594;max3lots. Fullpremiumrisk requires3Rnetprofit at4xentryprice; no invented stop can changegaploss. HAIN.37premium37=4.3479%equity needs highconvictionyetmaximum payout2.7027x. NearK.5unpriced. EPMnearestC2.5stale95>51.0594;C5.03 needs30.989583%upfrom3.84;P2.5.25 needs41.40625%down;N0notvalidated. HITI noholdexception: premiumhurdlesabovemedian4.2711/3.0992pp. Prioranalysis2305 costedvectorbt6train/3holdout selectedT5holdout-2.6317%,DD5.364%,win66.67%; nochangedstrategytojustifyrerun. Prior2306intrinsic-onlysimulationhalfKelly0 isstressscenario,notfairvalue. No calibrated positiveKelly estimate now; allocation0 derivesfailedgate,notuniversalproofnegativeoptionEV. Cashchosenforfailedshapedpayoffandclosedoptionsession. NextopenSep11 13:30UTC; hypotheticalHAIN/HITIpre-eventexitSep11RTH,EPM Sep14RTH; Oct16expiryoutlastsallby>=week. Review primary Sep14HAINBMO/HITIAMC andSep15EPMAMC sources22973–75. Existingcollector192verified20UTCEND,next22UTC; monitors220/221preserved. NewmidnightreviewwillmeasureZUMZresponsewithoutretrospectivefit andfreshHAINpricesonlyifchanged. No fundsoutside mandate identified.

Edge reference: frozen HITI N9 issuer-dated earnings daily responses, median absolute5.494505%; at S2.56 Oct16K2.5 C.31 requires+9.765625%,P.16 requires-8.593750%,each1/9=11.111%<40%; no >=3x expected-payoff mispricing documented. HAIN/EPM/ZUMZ have N0 validated comparable-event samples in this review, meaning untested, not0% wins. Premises: Sept10issuer Q2comps-2.1%,QTD-3.5%,GM35.3vs35.5%; H1CFO-27.276m minuscapex4.880m yields-32.156mFCF. Narrative35.7mCFO belongs to YoYcashbridge, not explicitly H1; period interpretation should be checked againstfiling. Inference: weaker demand plusfixedcosts pressurecash; counterexampleseasonalholiday recovery orworkingcapital unwind could improve conversion. Firstorder weaker guidance repricesissuer; secondorder assortment/inventory decisions alter supplierorders; thirdorder sustainedweakcashlimitsbuybacks andstoreinvestment. These are conditional consequences,not measuredpeerflows. Who benefits: cashretentionhelpscreditors; discountingmayhelpcustomers atmarginexpense. ObservedSIP20:40stock13.70vs16.71close=-18.013166%,not tomorrow'soptionexit. PriorrejectedP15.36wouldshow1.30intrinsic=3.6111x,but neitheroptionsaleafterhours norforecastdirectionwasavailable. Valid inference cashweakened; unsound leap would be assertingthisrealizedmovevalidatesunmeasured8eventprobability. No order. Primary https://ir.zumiez.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zumiez-inc-announces-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results ; scheduling https://ir.zumiez.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zumiez-inc-report-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results ; prices https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Edge reference: frozen HITI N9 issuer-dated earnings daily responses, median absolute5.494505%; at S2.56 Oct16K2.5 C.31 requires+9.765625%,P.16 requires-8.593750%,each1/9=11.111%<40%; no >=3x expected-payoff mispricing documented. HAIN/EPM/ZUMZ have N0 validated comparable-event samples in this review, meaning untested, not0% wins. Premises: (1) HAIN .33 Sep9close was a13:59 trade with stock.681–.6839, intrinsic.3161–.319; newer.37 Sep10 13:55 traded with stock.6484–.6583,intrinsic.3417–.3516. Thus both marks exceed entire matched-minute intrinsic ranges. (2) HITI empirical responses22929–37 unchanged; NumPy recomputation uses signed returns. Fourofnine needed: price ceiling.0015525call/.08065934put atfixedS2.56, beforecosts. Validity: matching time removes asynchronous false comparison; soundness: minute data do not establish simultaneous executable quotes, adjusted deliverables or fairvalue. Counterexample: an unobserved executable cheaper ask could change decision, but none documented. HAINstandardK1 at.37 maximum payout2.702703xpremium even atS0, less than3xexpectedpayout and less than4xprice neededfor3Rnettarget onfullpremiumrisk. Size0. HAIN>=8eventcollection deferred because present candidate alreadyfails payoffhardbound; not presented as failedbacktest. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-bars; option_contracts. Issuer datesSep14HAINBMO https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full andHITIAMC https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ .

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: start equity850.99 and convexcash178.71; zero holdings/queuedorders/convexmonitors verified using journal,query_trades,list_monitors. Mandate longoptions only, <=3positions, premium<=6%equity; use tighter3%normal or5%highconviction full-loss sizing and halfKelly. HITI fails measured edge; other candidates are PRELIMINARY rejections with N0 event study, not claims of0% observed coverage. HAIN S.6416: Oct16C1 .10 Aug24 needs+71.4464%; P1 .33 Sep9 below currentintrinsic.3584, an asynchronous mismatch, not executable mispricing; nearestK.5 unpriced. EPM S3.825: C2.5 .95 costs95>51.0594; C5 .03 needs+31.5033%; P2.5 .25 needs-41.1765%, all stale9–17days. ZUMZ S16.575: P15 .36 needs-11.6742%; nearP17.5 1.26 costs126>cap; C25 .25 needs+52.3379%; Sep10AMC means session-before window already passed, no validatedhold exception. Conclusions: research allocation0 and cash178.71 because no screened contract has certified asymmetric payoff, not because certainty is required. Premises would change with fresh synchronized prices and >=8 comparableevents satisfying40% or documented>=3xpremium expectedpayoff aftercosts. No trades, exits or social messages. Source dates: https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full (Sep14BMO), https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 (Sep15AMC), https://ir.zumiez.com/node/15801 (Sep10AMC), https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ (Sep14AMC). Prices option_contracts and delayedSIPbars through19:20. Intrinsic-only 4xpremium targets would require HITIstock3.74(call,+46.38%) or1.78(put,-30.33%); neither supported by N9 observed closes. No invented stops/targets placed to bypass rejection.

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: scale each of9 historical next-session stock close returns to S2.555, compute call max(Snext-2.5,0) or put max(2.5-Snext,0), divide by referencepremium and subtract1. This is intrinsic liquidation floor with time value discarded, NOT actual30+day remaining option price, expiry return or calibrated forecast. NumPy seed910,10000 iid bootstrap paths of20tickets,3% currentequity premium each ticket, compounded. Search fractions0–6% in.01pp steps maximizing meanloggrowth, thenhalf:0 for both. Intrinsic sample mean returns-83.3304%call/-52.8092%put; finite-sample bootstrap misses unseen tails and ignores cross-event dependence/costs. Median series returns-40.0481%/-27.7979%,5th percentile-44.3359%/-35.8266%; profit odds0%/.01%. Counterexample: residual timevalue could overturn these figures; thus these are rejection stress scenarios, not proof fair option value. Empirical mandatedcoverage11.1% and missing optionvalue evidence independently reject, so size0. One actualcall$31=3.643% equity, put$18=2.115%; fullpremium absoluteceiling$51.0594, normal3%$25.5297, highconviction5%$42.5495. Primary event https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/; data and nine primary history dates in statistical analysis2301.