Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
HOFT SEP1200 cash conversion bridge = 22.9
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 00:03
For the first half of the fiscal year 2027, the company had an operating cash flow of 24 million and capital expenditures of 1.1 million, resulting in a free cash flow of 22.9 million. This includes a recovery of cash of 7.9 million and a release of 5.3 million from inventory, which decreased from 48.7 million to 43.4 million. The company notes that this release is not a perpetual source of earnings. As of September 11, the company had 18.7 million in cash, compared to 1.1 million at the end of the fiscal year. The company has no term loan or credit facility balance and has 51.8 million in borrowing availability, but this is not cash that the company owns. The company spent 3.6 million on principal, 2.5 million on dividends, and 1.3 million on repurchases. Excluding the recovery of cash, the free cash flow is 15 million, which is a simple descriptive bridge to other working capital items, but does not represent a steady-state forecast. https://investors.hookerfurnishings.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hooker-furnishings-reports-profitable-quarter-and-first-half
HOFT SEP1200 reported earnings versus tariff recovery = 1.3
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 00:03
A news scan found the headline about HOFT SEP1200 reported earnings versus tariff recovery. On September 11, the issuer reported its Q2 FY27 earnings, which ended on August 2. The company had a continuing operating income of 1.3 million dollars. There was a 4.3 million dollar benefit from tariffs, and a 0.5 million dollar reduction in customer credits, resulting in a net operating benefit of 3.8 million dollars. Additionally, the company earned 0.2 million dollars in interest. The simple normalized operating income is 1.3 - 3.8 = -2.5 million dollars, which is not an issuer-adjusted metric. The company's revenue decreased by 8.7 percent in Q2. However, the backlog increased by 6.2 percent year-over-year and 8.4 percent quarter-over-quarter. The company recovered 7.9 million dollars in cash, with 1.8 million dollars still in inventory and 1 million dollars from discontinued operations, on a net pre-tax basis. No material additional recoveries are expected. Note that rounded values do not fully reconcile to 7.9 million dollars. https://investors.hookerfurnishings.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hooker-furnishings-reports-profitable-quarter-and-first-half
TLX SEP1200 bounded Pixclara status search
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 00:03
A news scan found the headline of the latest article on the issuer's news page, dated September 12, 00:04 UTC, which is a website that provides updates on the company's activities, specifically about Ga68, a type of medical imaging agent. The article did not mention a decision about Pixclara on September 11. An earlier article from April 10, found at https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/, only mentioned that a decision would be made on September 11. Just because the decision is not visible does not mean that the FDA, which is the US Food and Drug Administration, has not made a decision. The outcome is still unknown, and there was no significant increase in the stock price after the expected decision date, which is a day when a major announcement was expected to be made. https://telixpharma.com/news-views/
SRRK SEP1200 issuer early approval and commercial scope = 19
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 00:03
On September 11, 2026, the issuer released news at 18:25 EDT, which is 22:25 UTC, 19 calendar days before the prior September 30 PDUFA, which is a deadline for the US Food and Drug Administration to review a new drug application. The FDA approved ISEMBYLD for people aged 2 and older for a treatment that targets SMN2, a type of spinal muscular atrophy, which is a genetic disorder that affects muscle strength and movement, with a priority review voucher awarded, but no price for this voucher was given. The company expects to start shipping the treatment in the coming days, although this is just a forecast and not based on actual receipts. There will be an investor call on September 14 at 08:00 ET, which is 12:00 UTC. The full original information is available, and the FDA label needs to be retrieved separately. The main group of people in the study, who were aged 2 to 12, had 103 participants and received a nominal dose of 10mg/kg, which showed a 2.2 point benefit on the HFMSE scale, which measures muscle strength, with a p-value of 0.0121, which is a measure of statistical significance, indicating that the result is likely not due to chance. Additionally, 34.2% of participants had a 3-point or more improvement, compared to 13.5% of those who did not receive the treatment, and there were 9 fractures in the treatment group compared to 2 in the other group. This information comes from the issuer's promotional source and should not be used to infer the likelihood of the stock performing well based on the clinical p-values, which are a measure of the statistical significance of the results. https://scholarrock.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-announces-fda-approval-isembyldtm-apitegromab-mstn
PRE91108 compact collector final local receipt and explicit coverage gaps = 5
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:20
A final local collection started at 08:18:36 and ended at 08:18:37 UTC, covering 5 panels with 0 orders. The stocks FTK, AVAV, and TLX200 were included, as well as TXNM and KR403, which had explicit gaps in coverage. For KR, there were two alternative paths to the newsroom, and it was assumed that there would always be news. Nine 30-minute runs were scheduled with a hard cutoff at 12:25 UTC and a timeout of 35 seconds. The scheduling acceptance was not remote, and the next monitoring at 12:30 must audit the actual notes. The old receipt from 07:30 was verified, with 15 out of 85 items retained. The hash change was dynamic and cosmetic, and did not affect the semantic news proof. research/collector.py ; issuer URLs in script
PRE91108 actual scheduled collector 224 completion = 11
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:16
A scheduled collector, numbered 224, completed its task. It last ran at 8:15:37 on September 11, 2026, and is set to run again at 16:15:37 on the same day. The task involved 1970 characters and 11 panels, and it did not encounter any errors. The collector finished with the message: END actual original completed, with 11 panels and a rawsha of 9777ad7d576e91c62ab440fd5414d66183c71df40d3668b04d8bf51e3649e88c, noting that only previews were shown and advising to read originals before taking action. runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst
PRE91108 actual scheduled collector 223 completion = 7
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:16
A scheduled collector, numbered 223, completed its task. It last ran at 8:15:37 on September 11, 2026, and will run again at 10:15:37 on the same day. The task processed 1473 characters and 7 panels, and found no errors. The task ended with the message: END actual original completed, with 7 panels and a rawsha of 0544d08f9ce5a1b181e8563a95968dc8c23a75ee2c6ad9d4d2a3d6a376d53a81, noting that only previews were shown and advising to read originals before taking action. runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst
AVAV PRE91108 unconditional 5-session bootstrap risk historical_validation = 0.4696621589496277
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the headline 'AVAV PRE91108 unconditional 5-session bootstrap risk historical_validation'. The sample has 1255 daily returns, 1251 overlapping 5-day blocks, and 10000 simulated paths. The profit and loss for one share has a median of 0.15414785536563613, a 95th percentile of 19.385670270451158, and a 1st percentile of -14.19582650368268. The mean profit and loss is 0.4696621589496277. The probability of loss is 0.4951, the probability of stopping is 0.2151, and the probability of reaching the target is 0.0316. The mean win percentage is 5.7113459410198715 and the mean loss percentage is 5.180391664298729. The win to loss ratio is 1.1024930760313503. The binary half Kelly risk proxy is 0.0279134424634149 and the cash constrained half Kelly is 0.29433061572816666. The probability of loss over one average daily range is 0.2187 and over three average daily ranges is 0.0048. The 95th percentile loss account percentage is 1.6681543265705447. The mean exit session is 4.5471. The parameters used include a mark of 147.065, an assumed entry fill of 147.2855975, a cost of 147.30032605975, a stop of 138.5265125, a target of 173.5628525, and a risk of 8.759085. The seed is 9110800 and the live allocation is 0. The limitations of this report include using unconditional overlapping historical five-day blocks, not using a news-date filter, and not using a calibrated forecast. The report also notes that daily-close sample exits can overshoot and that one-share stress diagnostic is not proposed order. The report excludes 2026 and uses fixed windows before sampling. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/risk_study.py
AVAV PRE91108 unconditional 5-session bootstrap risk train = 0.43433099903177197
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the headline 'AVAV PRE91108 unconditional 5-session bootstrap risk train'. The sample has 1258 daily returns, 1254 overlapping 5-day blocks, and 10000 simulated paths. The results show a median profit or loss per share over 5 days of -12.76, 0.13, and 16.15. The mean profit or loss is 0.43. There is a 49.01 percent chance of loss and a 12.52 percent chance of stopping. The target probability is 2.09 percent. The average winning percentage is 4.45 and the average losing percentage is 4.03. The win to loss ratio is 1.10. The binary half Kelly risk proxy is 0.03 and the cash constrained half Kelly is 0.43. The probability of loss over one average daily range is 12.65 percent and over three average daily ranges is 0 percent. The 95th percentile loss account percentage is 1.50. The average exit session is 4.73. The parameters used include a mark of 147.07, an assumed entry fill of 147.29, a cost of 147.30, a stop of 138.53, a target of 173.56, and a risk of 8.76. The seed is 9110800 and the live allocation is 0. The limitations of this analysis are that it uses unconditional overlapping historical five-day blocks, not conditional edge, and does not account for 10000 independent events or 15-minute venue execution. Daily close sample exits can overshoot and there is no news date filter or calibrated forecast. This is a one-share stress diagnostic, not a proposed order, and the full universe and tails are omitted. Fixed windows were used before sampling and 2026 is excluded. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/risk_study.py
PRE91108 own ledger half-Kelly audit = -1.0460528968119984
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
The automated trading fund manager reviewed the ledger for PRE91108. The results showed 3 trades, a win rate of 33.33333333333333 percent, and a mean return of -0.8609740733728407 percent. The mean win was 7.939941307427634 percent and the mean loss was 5.261431763773078 percent. The realized profit and loss in US dollars was -1.0460528968119984. The raw half-Kelly risk proxy, a measure of risk, was -0.0542179116971192, and the clipped half-Kelly, a way to limit risk, was 0. All forced operator liquidations happened on September 4, and were not natural exits, which would have happened in 4 to 6 weeks. The manager cannot estimate the actual slippage, or difference between expected and actual trade prices, without quotes from when decisions were made or the rate at which stop or target prices were hit. There are no open or pending trades in this context. A news scan found the data line: a set of trade metrics. query_trades(fund=quant)
PRE91108 cross-asset return correlations = 925
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the following data: the return correlations for certain assets from January 2023 to September 10, 2026, are as follows: for SPY, the correlations are 1 with SPY, 0.7591198368856802 with EFA, 0.6704914576653278 with EEM, 0.119936053322961 with TLT, and 0.15267835728211407 with GLD. For EFA, the correlations are 0.7591198368856802 with SPY, 1 with EFA, 0.7863240446416644 with EEM, 0.22112137108943597 with TLT, and 0.3508641532226154 with GLD. For EEM, the correlations are 0.6704914576653278 with SPY, 0.7863240446416644 with EFA, 1 with EEM, 0.1554362466102038 with TLT, and 0.38281142715701333 with GLD. For TLT, the correlations are 0.119936053322961 with SPY, 0.22112137108943597 with EFA, 0.1554362466102038 with EEM, 1 with TLT, and 0.17874017634543926 with GLD. For GLD, the correlations are 0.15267835728211407 with SPY, 0.3508641532226154 with EFA, 0.38281142715701333 with EEM, 0.17874017634543926 with TLT, and 1 with GLD. These correlations are based on 925 common daily returns and use current ETF proxies, with no independent causal proof, and show that EFA and EEM have correlated equity exposure and are not five independent bets. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
GLD PRE91108 broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel = 18.649344429144477
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the following data line: it shows information about the GLD ETF. The data includes 2687 bars, a close price of 396.36, and an 18.65% return over 252 sessions. The RV20 percentage is 28.26% and there were 0 days with a daily range over 20%. The number of whole shares for 187.22 is 0. This data was retrieved on September 11, and covers dates from 2016 to September 10, 2026. No history before 2016 was returned, despite a request for 2010 data. The close-derived metrics are not affected by the SPY daily low anomaly, but this does not prove the data is eligible or that the strategy has an edge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TLT PRE91108 broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel = -5.321143928738858
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line was retrieved on September 11, showing information about the TLT ETF. The data includes 2687 bars, a close price of 80.78, a 252-session return percentage of -5.321143928738858, and an RV20 percentage of 10.903027184382665. The daily range over 20 percent count is 0, and the whole shares for 187.22 is 2. This data was retrieved for the dates September 11, 2016, to September 10, 2026, with no history available before 2016 despite a request for 2010 data. The close-derived metrics are not mechanically affected by the SPY daily low anomaly, which does not prove data eligibility or strategy edge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM PRE91108 broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel = 33.43955387373032
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the following data line: it shows information about the EEM investment, which is a type of exchange-traded fund, or ETF, that trades on a stock exchange like a stock. The data includes 2687 pieces of information, or bars, and the closing price is 67. The return over 252 sessions, or trading days, is 33.44 percent. The RV20 percentage, which measures risk, is 19.13 percent. There were 0 days when the daily price range was over 20 percent. The number of whole shares that can be bought for 187.22 is 2. This data was retrieved on September 11, and covers dates from 2016 to September 10, 2026. No information before 2016 was available, even though 2010 was requested. The metrics based on the closing price are not affected by a daily low anomaly in the SPY investment, but this does not prove that the data is eligible or that the strategy has an edge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EFA PRE91108 broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel = 18.267293485560778
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the following data line: it shows information about the EFA ETF. The data includes 2687 bars, a close price of 105.66, and a 252-session return percentage of 18.267293485560778. The RV20 percentage is 9.84770115845476 and the daily range over 20 percent count is 0. The number of whole shares for 187.22 is 1. This data was retrieved on September 11, and covers dates from 2016 to September 10, 2026. No history before 2016 was returned, despite a request for 2010 data. The close-derived metrics are unaffected by a daily low anomaly in the SPY, which is a type of investment fund, but this does not prove the data is eligible or that the strategy has an edge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY PRE91108 broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel = 17.827324035636003
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the following data line: a broad liquid ETF risk and affordability panel for SPY. The data includes 2687 bars, a close of 757.83, a 252-session return percentage of 17.827324035636003, and an RV20 percentage of 8.536479436350973. The daily range over 20 percent count is 1. The number of whole shares for 187.22 is 0. This data was retrieved on September 11, and covers dates from 2016 to September 10, 2026. Despite a request for data from 2010, no history before 2016 was returned. The close-derived metrics are not mechanically affected by the SPY daily low anomaly, which is not proof of data eligibility or strategy edge. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ADBE PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 248.83
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
On September 10, 2026, the close price of ADBE was 248.83. This was a decrease of 2.366 percent from the prior close of 254.86. Over the past 20 sessions, the price decreased by 3.833 percent. The price volatility, or risk, over the past 20 sessions was 48.850 percent. The average daily range, or the average amount the price moved up or down, over the past 20 sessions was 9.169 percent. The average daily trading value in US dollars over the past 20 sessions was 1,268,578,302.60. A news scan found a computed result for September 11 based on 50 sessions of daily data from July 1 to September 10. These are historical prices, not current quotes that can be used to buy or sell. The prior 20-day average daily range does not include September 10 unless it is explicitly for September 11. The correct frozen early alert ratio for AVAV uses data from September 4 to 10 and does not include a live position. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TXNM PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 57.86
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
On September 10, 2026, the close price of TXNM was 57.86. This is a decrease of 0.0690846286701241 percent from the prior close of 57.9. The 20-session percentage change is 0.9244723530437815 percent. The 20-session realized volatility percentage is 4.1961001654799315 percent. The prior 20-day average daily range, excluding September 10 unless specified for September 11, is 0.2699999999999996. The 20-day average daily volume in US dollars is 68,686,750.926. Based on this data, 3 whole shares are considered affordable. These calculations were made on September 11, using data from July 1 to September 10, for 50 shares. The data includes historical prices, which are not executable quotes. Note that the prior 20-day average daily range excludes September 10, unless it is explicitly for September 11. Also, the correct frozen expected annual return for AVAV uses data from September 4 to 10, and there is no live position. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 757.83
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the following data line: a computed report for September 11, based on 50 sessions of daily bars from July 1 to September 10, shows the SPY closed at 757.83 on September 10, which is a -0.5994 percent change from the prior close of 762.4. The 20-session percentage change is -1.8978 percent and the 20-session risk volatility percentage is 8.5365 percent. The prior 20-day average daily range, which excludes September 10 unless specified for September 11, is 4.3721. The 20-day average daily volume in US dollars is 28,341,302,182.22. The number of whole shares that can be bought with the available funds is 0. This report also mentions that AVAV uses a correct frozen early alert from September 4 to 10, with no live position. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ORCL PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 152.94
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the data line for Oracle Corporation stock on September 10, 2026. The stock closed at 152.94. The prior close was 161.63. The stock price decreased by 5.38 percent that day. Over 20 sessions, the stock price decreased by 0.22 percent. The stock's price movement was 48.88 percent over 20 sessions. The average daily range over 20 sessions, excluding September 10, was 5.87. The average daily volume over 20 sessions in US dollars was 3,621,428,842.81. This data is based on 50 daily bars from July 1 to September 10, 2026, and is not a real-time quote. The prior 20 average daily range excludes September 10 unless specified for September 11. The data also mentions AVAV, which uses a frozen early alert system from September 4 to 10, with no live position. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FTK PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 27.42
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the following data: on September 10, 2026, the close was 27.42. The prior close was 27.88. This means the day percentage change was -1.6499282639885093 percent. The 20 session percentage change was -26.230831315577074 percent. The RV20 percentage change was 102.7444578299926 percent. The prior 20 day average daily range, or the average price movement over the last 20 days, was 2.1877250000000013. The 20 day average daily volume in US dollars was 19,000,953.60. This information was computed on September 11 for 50 sessions, from July 1 to September 10. These are historical prices, not current quotes that can be used to make trades. The prior 20 day average daily range does not include September 10 unless it is explicitly for September 11. The AVAV correct frozen EAR uses data from September 4 to 10 and there is no live position. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AVAV PRE91108 September10 close and risk context = 147.065
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:16
A news scan found the following data for AVAV as of September 10, 2026: the close was 147.065, which is a 4.45 percent increase from the prior close of 140.8. The 20-session percentage change is -24.12 percent. The RV20 percentage change is 55.32 percent. The prior 20-day average daily range, or the average price movement over the last 20 days, is 8.204085. The 20-day average daily volume in US dollars is 283,592,247.93. With a budget of 8.204085 US dollars per share, approximately 1 whole share is affordable. If one share is purchased at the average daily range, the potential loss would be 8.759085 US dollars. The potential gap in equity, if the share price moves three times the average daily range, would be 3.09 percent. The correct frozen expected adverse range percentage, a measure of potential loss, is 3.27 percent. These calculations are based on data from July 1 to September 10, and are descriptive historical prices, not executable quotes. The prior 20-day average daily range for September 11 is 8.759085, excluding September 10 unless explicitly stated. The correct frozen expected adverse range for AVAV uses data from September 4 to 10, and does not reflect a live position. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY PRE91108 Michigan September preliminary exact release time and frozen August baseline = 1400
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:14
A news scan found the headline about the SPY report for September. The report is scheduled to be released on September 11 at 10am ET, which is 14 UTC. The August baseline had a final sentiment of 51.7, with current conditions at 51.9 and expectations at 51.5. The year ahead inflation is 4.0 percent and long run inflation is 3.3 percent. The interview period was from July 28 to August 24. The actual September data and methodology will be compared, without using invented consensus or automatic macro entry. https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
TSM R91108 CLI full-sample diagnostic = -35.83409206190321
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:14
A news scan found the headline 'Sep11 CLI breakout20 days2000 stop8 target24: 1372bars/103trades,return−35.834092%,DD36.692012%,wins29.126214%,mean−.398379%,buyhold265.528719%'. This is a data line from a trading system, where 'DD' means drawdown, or the largest loss. The source inspection confirms the use of IEX, which is a stock exchange, and a specific signal exit strategy, with no holdout, meaning no part of the data was set aside for testing. This is descriptive only and is distinct from a costed system called SIP2709. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&feed=iex
SPY PRE91108 expanded next-two-session calendar: Michigan and Fed releases
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:13
A news scan found the headline about the SPY PRE91108 expanded next-two-session calendar, which includes Michigan and Fed releases. Retrieved on September 11, 2008, at 08:11 UTC, the current 2026 University of Michigan dates PDF confirms the preliminary release on September 11 and the final release on September 25, but it does not give the hour of release. The Board calendar lists the Z.1 release at 12 ET, which is 16 UTC, and the H.8 and H.15 releases at 16:15 ET, which is 20:15 UTC, and commercial paper at 13 ET, which is 17 UTC, on September 11. On September 14, the H.10 and H.15 releases are at 16:15 ET, which is 20:15 UTC, and commercial paper is at 13 ET. There are no Board speeches listed for September 11 or 14, but this is not an exhaustive regional Fed calendar. The FOMC meeting is on September 15-16, which is outside the next two sessions. An early search found a University of Michigan document 75443 with the wrong year text, but an authoritative current link 79628 supersedes it. https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=79628 ; https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm
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