Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
LPG R91108 EIA weekly trade table revalidated = 11868
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:13
A news scan found the headline 'LPG R91108 EIA weekly trade table revalidated'. On September 11, a retrieval with HTTP 200 status was made, which required the cp1252 encoding. The data for the week of September 4, 2026, showed total exports of 11,868 thousand barrels per day, compared to 11,896 in the prior week. Crude exports were 3,417 versus 4,483, and total product exports were 8,451 versus 7,413. The total exports do not represent LPG exports, and table 7 does not provide propane export tonnes or Dorian cargo information. There were no errors from parser failure. https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv
PLAY R91108 September14 PLAY release
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:13
A news scan found the headline about PLAY's September 14 release. On September 1, the company announced that it would release its second quarter results, which ended on August 4, after the market closes on September 14. The company's investor relations information can be found by doing a web search for the alternate issuer hostname, as the direct link ir.daveandbusters.com is not working. There will be no event trade, and investors should compare consumer demand and food costs after the release. https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026
HITI R91108 September14 High Tide release
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:13
On August 25, the issuer announced that after the market closes on September 14, the results for the quarter ending July 31 will be released. A call is scheduled for September 15 at 11:30 EDT. The last regular trading session before this event is Friday, September 11, and no orders will be taken. https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/
HAIN R91108 September14 Hain release
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:13
A news scan found the note that on August 17, the issuer of HAIN R91108 stated that on September 14, before the market opens, there will be results and an 8:00 EDT call. The first release of future information could happen before the call. The note instructs to follow input costs, inventory, and working capital, with no order to be placed. https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full
TLX R91108 September11 date-only Pixclara catalyst
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:13
On April 10, the issuer assigned a September 11 goal date for a PDUFA, which is a Food and Drug Administration decision date, but there was no FDA announcement at that time. A current news index accessed on September 11 has no visible decision about Pixclara, but this is not proof that a decision is pending. Any approval, complete response letter, or delay would require an actual original document, which is outside the current trade setup. No FDA event for September 14 was verified in this review. https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/
KR R91108 September11 Kroger call timing
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:13
A news scan found the headline that on August 14, the issuer confirmed that on September 11, there will be a call at 08:00 EDT, which is 12:00 UTC, and it is not the exact first release. The call will discuss food input, inventory, FIFO margin, and guidance after the numbers are published, and no event-entry strategy has been validated. https://www.thekrogerco.com/ir-feed-item/kroger-announces-second-quarter-conference-call-with-investors/
R91108 two-session Census calendar
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:13
A news scan found the note: Verified on September 11, August business formations were reported on September 11 at 10 EDT, which is 14 UTC. There is no entry for September 14 in this calendar. Respondent due-date pages are not statistical release announcements. https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
R91108 two-session BLS calendar
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:13
A news scan found the headline 'VerifiedSep11'. On September 11, the August Consumer Price Index, or CPI, and other economic learnings will be released at 08:30 EDT, which is 12:30 UTC. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS, month calendar does not have a September 14 entry, but this does not prove the absence of all macro events. No consensus is assumed. Future data was not yet released at 08 UTC. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm
SPY PRE91108 February frozen execution diagnostic extended = -2.1578886345422488
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:12
A news scan found the headline 'SPY PRE91108 February frozen execution diagnostic extended'. The return on a trade was -2.1578886345422488, which is also the trade return percentage. The drawdown, or loss from the highest point, was 3.1046257099508368. The win rate was 0, meaning the trade was not successful. This was based on a sample of 1 trade. The trade had 195 checks before exit, and 1178 bars, or units of time, were considered. The entry point, or price at which the trade was started, was 686.92885. The risk, or potential loss, was 12.599000000000013. The target price was 724.72585, and the original stop, or price at which the trade would be automatically stopped, was 674.32985. The reason for the stop was a sampled stop. A ledger, or record of transactions, showed that on February 2, 2026, at 9:30:00, 14.556092818040764 units were bought at a price of 685.9, with a fill price of 686.92885, because it was an entry point. On February 5, 2026, at 10:15:00, -14.556092818040764 units were sold at a price of 673.25, with a fill price of 672.240125, because of a sampled stop. The vectorbt max error was 0. This was one inspected February 2026 trade, not a new holdout, with a fee of 1 basis point and a slip of 15 basis points on each side. The bar opens proxy sampling was adjusted, but not quotes, and the original daily retained data was used. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/execution_audit.py
SPY PRE91108 February frozen execution diagnostic RTH = -2.1578886345422488
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:12
A news scan found the following trade diagnostic report: The return on a trade was -2.1578886345422488, which is also the trade return percentage. The drawdown was 3.0151498423680034. The win rate was 0. This was based on a sample of 1 trade. There were 81 checks before exit. The trade involved 494 bars of data. The entry price was 686.92885. The risk was 12.599000000000013. The target price was 724.72585. The original stop price was 674.32985. The reason for the trade was a sampled stop. The ledger shows two events: on February 2, 2026, at 09:30:00, 14.556092818040764 units were bought at a price of 685.9, with a fill price of 686.92885, because it was an entry. On February 5, 2026, at 10:15:00, -14.556092818040764 units were sold at a price of 673.25, with a fill price of 672.240125, because it was a sampled stop. The vectorbt max error was 0. This was for one inspected February 2026 trade, which was not a new holdout. The fee was 1 basis point and the slip was 15 basis points on each side. The bar opens were adjusted for proxy sampling, not quotes, and the original daily data was retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/execution_audit.py
SPY PRE91108 February frozen execution diagnostic daily = -2.000956137018328
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:12
A news scan found the following data: the symbol is SPY, which is a type of stock market index fund. The model used is called an adapter, and the sample is a test. The slippage, which is the difference between expected and actual trade prices, is 15 basis points, or 0.15 percent. The return, or profit, was -2.000956137018328 percent, and the drawdown, or loss, was also 2.000956137018328 percent. The CAGR, or compound annual growth rate, was -23.515425016349432 percent, and the Sharpe ratio, which measures risk, was -3.641861872001305. The annual volatility, or fluctuation, was 7.287205862954066 percent. There were 19 trading sessions, and 1 month. The win rate, or percentage of successful trades, was 0 percent, and there was 1 trade. The mean trade, or average trade result, was -2.000956137018328 percent, and the average loss was 2.000956137018328 percent. The mean exposure, or average amount invested, was 0. One trade was inspected, which occurred in February 2026, and was not a new trade. The trade had an entry date of 2026-02-02, an entry price of 686.92885, a risk of 12.599000000000013, a stop price of 674.32985, and a target price of 724.72585. The trade was exited on 2026-02-02, due to a stop, and the return was -0.020009561370183282 percent. The hold time was 1 day. The fee was 1 basis point, and the slippage was 15 basis points, on each side of the trade. The bar opens were adjusted using a proxy sampling method, rather than quotes, and the original daily data was retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/execution_audit.py
TSM R91108 Kelly units and HAC regression correction
Supply chain2026-09-11 08:12
A trading fund report shows the following data: the half Kelly risk fraction is 0.014586147516808479 and the half Kelly notional fraction is 0.26670989424492647, which means the fraction of the investment that is used, with the half Kelly notional value in US dollars being 226.96745290348997. The quarter probe value in US dollars is 56.74186322587249. The stress notional value in US dollars is 0. The price of one share in US dollars is 428.03. The maximum position size in US dollars is capped at 212.7475. The correlation between FRO and STNG over 60 days is 0.7789381883408967, and the correlation between LPG and FRO over 60 days is 0.682346680347886. The beta value with a 5-day HAC correction is between 1.6256235676581592 and 3.1274775237948282, with a standard error of 0.38312600921853796. The Kelly risk stake fraction divided by the average fractional loss gives the notional fraction. The full size is capped at 212.7475, with a quarter of this size being 53.186875, and the uncapped size is 56.741863. The diagnostic test does not pass, and the operative allocation is 0. The regression analysis using HAC5 on 60 log returns includes an intercept and a small-sample correction, and is descriptive, not predictive. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM,SPY,FRO,STNG,LPG&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK PRE91108 primary earnings and cash bridge
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:10
A September 10 presentation showed that the company expects its full year revenue to be between 360 and 370 million, and its adjusted EBITDA, which is a measure of profitability, to be between 50 and 54 million, and these expectations were raised on September 9. The company's international chemistry business is expected to have revenue of more than 40 million in the second half of the year, compared to 12.6 million in the first half, which would be a growth of more than 217.46 percent from one half to the next, but this revenue has not yet been collected as cash. In the second quarter, the company had revenue of 99.4 million and gross profit of 23.8 million. The company's investor relations homepage was updated on September 11 with the latest news from September 9, which included the updated guide, but no additional paid receipts were identified. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm
AVAV PRE91108 primary earnings and cash bridge
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:10
A news scan found the headline about AVAV's primary earnings and cash bridge for the period ending August 1. The company reported revenue of $480.490 million, operating cash flow of $13.496 million, and property and equipment of $44.033 million, which results in a free cash flow proxy of -$30.537 million. Capitalized software of $5.417 million adds to usage, expanding the proxy to -$35.954 million. Adjusted EBITDA, which stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, was $53.389 million compared to $56.556 million. The company has a funded backlog of approximately $1.5 billion. However, the backlog does not guarantee paid cash or positive price-to-earnings ratio expectancy. This information was retrieved directly, with 200/299723 bytes and a hash of 87a4f3355ebdf8d9, and the dynamic header date was ignored in favor of the actual release date of September 9 at 16:10 EDT. https://investor.avinc.com/node/21391
ADBE PRE91108 primary earnings and cash bridge
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:10
A news scan found the headline for ADBE's primary earnings and cash bridge for the period ending August 28. The company reported revenue of $6.760 billion, operating cash flow of $2.523 billion, and capital expenditures of $0.085 billion, resulting in a computed free cash flow of $2.438 billion and a margin of 36.0651%. The company also reported a stock-based compensation cash flow addback of $0.539 billion, and an illustrative free cash flow less stock-based compensation of $1.899 billion. The GAAP net income was $1.827 billion, a 3.1038% increase from $1.772 billion, and the earnings per share was $4.62, a 10.5263% increase from $4.18, with 395 million diluted shares, a decrease of 6.8396% from 424 million. The company provided a full-year non-GAAP guide of $24.45 to $24.50. On September 10, the pre-release close was $248.83, and the mid-guide was 10.1667 times that. The Q4 guide is $6.80 to $6.85 billion in revenue and $6.30 to $6.35 in adjusted earnings per share. A direct guess of the news URL redirected to the homepage, but the official IR PDF is a valid source. https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/au56y4ter.pdf
ORCL PRE91108 primary earnings and cash bridge
Quant replication2026-09-11 08:10
On September 10, at 16:10 ET, the issuer released its earnings report for the first quarter, which ended on August 31. The report showed revenue of $19.345 billion, operating cash flow, which is the money a company receives from its operations, of $23.103 billion, capital expenditures, which are the funds used to purchase or upgrade assets, of $28.499 billion, and free cash flow, which is the cash left after paying for capital expenditures, of -$5.396 billion. Customer prepayments with significant financing, which means payments from customers that include financing, were $11.363 billion, making up 49.1841% of the operating cash flow. If we subtract only those prepayments from the operating cash flow, we get $11.740 billion. An illustrative free cash flow, which is not an official GAAP, or generally accepted accounting principle, measure and is not a forecast, minus the same prepayments would be -$16.759 billion. The net cash at the moment is $19.909 billion. On the prior September 10 close of $152.94, with a fiscal year 2027 guided non-GAAP earnings per share of $8.10, the price to earnings ratio is 18.8815 times. Note that the pre-release price is not the current valuation target. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-announces-q1-results-driven-by-triple-digit-growth-in-cloud-infrastructure-revenues-302875728.html
PRE91108 FDA calendar coverage gap
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:10
A news scan found the headline 'PRE91108 FDA calendar coverage gap'. On September 11, a browser-rendered calendar showed only the table header, with no event rows. A search for September 14 PDUFA, which stands for Prescription Drug User Fee Act, returned no unique confirmed candidate, so it cannot be inferred that there are zero FDA events. An existing TLX date, which refers to a specific stock ticker, was verified separately, and a broad coverage gap is explicit. https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar
ZUMZ PRE91108 Zumiez Q2 and period-aware cash = -32.156
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:10
A news scan found the report that Zumiez had sales of $208.964 million in the second quarter, which ended on August 1, with comparable sales down 2.1 percent, a loss of $2.743 million, and a gross margin of 35.3 percent. For the 37 days ending on September 7, comparable sales were down 3.5 percent and sales were down 4.3 percent. The company guided that it expects sales of $222 to $226 million and earnings per share of $0 to $0.10 in the third quarter. Operating cash flow, which is the cash generated from operations, was negative $27.276 million, and capital expenditures, which are expenses for buying or improving assets, were $4.880 million, resulting in free cash flow, which is the cash available after expenses, of negative $32.156 million. The company also spent $28.972 million on buying back its own stock, which is a way for the company to return cash to shareholders. The total cash and securities, which are investments, were $97.265 million as of September 10, compared to $160.624 million on January 31, a decline of $63.359 million. The combination of free cash flow and buybacks drained $61.128 million in cash. Inventory, which is the value of goods held for sale, was $157.282 million, down 0.27897 percent from the same time last year. The company's positive operating cash flow of $35.7 million helps to explain the change in cash from last year, but not for the first half of the year. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318008/000117184326005980/exh_991.htm
CPRT PRE91108 ACV acquisition sponsor economics = 1900
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:10
A news scan found the statement that Copart, or CPRT, is involved in an acquisition. The implied equity value is 1900 million dollars, which will be financed using cash on hand. The deal is expected to close by the end of calendar year 2026. It is expected to be neutral to earnings per share, or EPS, in the first full year and accretive, meaning it will increase earnings, by fiscal year 2028 and beyond. The ratio of the implied equity value to forecasted free cash flow, or FCF, for fiscal year 2026 is 1.49945 times. This forecast is not guaranteed and dealer wholesale benefits may not be realized as cash. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388064/d138322dex991.htm
CPRT PRE91108 ACV merger definitive terms = 10.5
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:10
A news scan found the headline 'CPRT PRE91108 ACV merger definitive terms'. The agreement was made on September 10, with a cash offer of $10.50 per share. The tender offer is expected to commence within 5 business days if practicable, but no later than 7 business days. The offer will be open for a minimum of 10 business days. The conditions for the merger include a majority tender and clearance under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, among others, but there is no financing condition. No actual commencement or expiry date is assumed. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388064/d138322d8k.htm
CPRT PRE91108 Copart Q4 margin and FY cash = 41.7765278683
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:10
A September 10 SEC exhibit shows that for the quarter ending July 31, Copart's revenue was 1152.439 million USD, compared to 1125.097 million USD, gross profit was 481.449 million USD, compared to 509.718 million USD, and net income was 327.423 million USD, compared to 396.354 million USD. The gross margin, which is the percentage of revenue that is gross profit, was 41.77653%, compared to 45.30436%, a decrease of 3.52783 percentage points. For the full year, operating cash flow was 1604.492 million USD, capital expenditures, which are expenses for things like new equipment, were 337.363 million USD, resulting in free cash flow, which is the cash left after capital expenditures, of 1267.129 million USD, compared to 1230.760 million USD the previous year. Although operating cash decreased, lower capital expenditures improved free cash flow, but this is not the cash from the current quarter. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526387902/cprt-ex99_1.htm
ADBE PRE91108 Adobe prepared remarks = 27.5
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:10
On September 10, the issuer of Adobe, which is abbreviated as ADBE, reported the following information: the Annual Recurring Revenue, or ARR, was 27.50 billion dollars, which is an increase of 11.2 percent. The growth of Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO, was 8 percent, and the growth of current RPO was 9 percent. The ARR of Firefly increased by 40 percent compared to the previous quarter. The integration of Semrush was described, but there was no mention of a full organic bridge in the reviewed remarks. The percentages of users and growth are not incremental dollars. The headline for the third quarter, which is focused on Artificial Intelligence, or AI, showed growth of more than 150 percent, but this does not necessarily mean it will result in a win for the stock. https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/c6yetrerew.pdf
ADBE PRE91108 Q3 Adobe economics = 2523
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:10
On September 10, the issuer reported its quarter ending August 28. The revenue was 6.76 billion dollars. The GAAP EPS, which is a measure of profit, was 4.62 dollars per share, and the non-GAAP EPS, which is a measure of profit without certain adjustments, was 6.13 dollars per share. The operating cash flow, or OCF, was 2523 million dollars, and the capital expenditures, or capex, was 85 million dollars, resulting in a free cash flow, or FCF, of 2438 million dollars. The company also spent 2232 million dollars on buybacks, which means it had 1.092294 times the coverage. The stock-based compensation, or SBC, was 539 million dollars. For the fourth quarter, the revenue is expected to be between 6.80 and 6.85 billion dollars, with a midpoint of 6.825 billion dollars, which is an increase of 0.96154 percent from the third quarter. The adjusted EPS is expected to be between 6.30 and 6.35 dollars. The EPS bridge, which explains the difference between the expected EPS and the actual EPS, includes 1.38 dollars for stock and deferred compensation, compared to a total difference of 1.51 dollars. The total growth includes acquisitions, but the organic growth, which is the growth without acquisitions, is not quantified here. Initially, the operating cash flow was calculated to be 2520 million dollars, but it was later superseded by 2523 million dollars. https://www.adobe.com/cc-shared/assets/investor-relations/pdfs/01906202/au56y4ter.pdf
ORCL PRE91108 Oracle operating scale and timing = 664
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:09
On September 10, at 16:10 ET, the issuer reported that revenue was 19.3 billion dollars, which is a 30 percent increase. The Infrastructure as a Service, or IaaS, revenue was 7.4 billion dollars, a 121 percent increase. The Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO, was 664 billion dollars. Since the fourth quarter, they delivered 850 megawatts and more than 300,000 Graphics Processing Units, or GPUs. For fiscal year 2027, the revenue guidance is greater than or equal to 90 billion dollars, with non-GAAP EPS guidance of 8.10 dollars. The sponsor provided the estimates, but they are not backed by a cash backlog or independent customer verification. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oracle-announces-q1-results-driven-by-triple-digit-growth-in-cloud-infrastructure-revenues-302875728.html
ORCL PRE91108 Q1 FY27 cash bridge = 23103
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-11 08:09
A news scan found the headline about Oracle's first quarter of fiscal year 2027 cash bridge. As of September 10, the company reported the following financial information for the quarter ending August 31 in millions of US dollars: operating cash flow was 23103, capital expenditures were 28499, and free cash flow was -5396. The company also reported a financing component of customer prepayments of 11363 and an increase in other deferred revenue of 3997, with net ATM of 19909. The customer prepayments were computed to be 49.18409 percent of operating cash flow. If operating cash flow is subtracted by 11740, which is a 44.22604 percent increase from the previous year, free cash flow would be -16759. This estimate does not include non-recurring or non-GAAP earnings. Capital expenditures were 123.35627 percent of operating cash flow. https://investor.oracle.com/files/content_files/1q27-pressrelease-September_FINAL.pdf
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