Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
EEM R92002 primary structure and valuation = 68.64
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:05
Issuer read Sep20; Sep17 holdings: Taiwan28.10 Korea20.60 China19.94 total68.64%, IT42.24%, PE19.40 PB2.69. Sep18 close67.03/NAV67.28 discount.37%; fee.72% annual. Geographic domicile not revenue. Primary issuer, descriptive not independent forecast. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf
R92002 simulation measured outputs = 10000
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:04
{"five_year":{"sample":1255,"terminal_unstopped_p05_p50_p95":[-13.916517520707718,5.8303433744541735,25.288007680026965],"EEM":{"stop_first":0.6241,"target_first":0.237,"neither":0.1389},"XLE":{"stop_first":0.5393,"target_first":0.186,"neither":0.2747}},"last252":{"sample":252,"terminal_unstopped_p05_p50_p95":[-3.2249203133477518,11.295509565202536,26.156546836256823],"EEM":{"stop_first":0.5802,"target_first":0.3565,"neither":0.0633},"XLE":{"stop_first":0.3986,"target_first":0.2382,"neither":0.3632}}} Retrieved Sep20; daily bars throughSep18; same confirmed split repairs as signal. Simulation conditional model, not live odds or backtest. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
R92002 statistics measured outputs = 1686
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:04
{"n":1686,"corr_daily_full":0.4347195240162975,"corr_gap_full":0.4569284164365753,"corr_gap_252":-0.41657179298281216,"worst_joint_gap":-16.202745527979015,"worst_gap_date":"2020-03-16 04:00:00+00:00","gap_p01":-4.128705344478528,"regimes":{"eem_prior20_negative":{"n":710,"daily_corr":0.5130147784073572,"both_negative_fraction":0.2661971830985915,"joint_daily_p01_dollars":-6.527533356077146},"eem_prior20_nonnegative":{"n":956,"daily_corr":0.3226251399636696,"both_negative_fraction":0.2709205020920502,"joint_daily_p01_dollars":-4.125658972617217}}} Retrieved Sep20; daily bars throughSep18; same confirmed split repairs as signal. Simulation conditional model, not live odds or backtest. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
267260.KS R92002 Sep18 world quote batch = 725000
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:04
10successfulsymbols:267260.KS725000KRW,600309.SS71.15CNY,LXCHEM.NS178.24INR,6501.T5524JPY,5802.T2080.5JPY,4063.T5844JPY,4005.T580.2JPY,BAS.DE51.62EUR,NHY.OL86.04NOK,MAERSK-B.CO22590DKK. Yahoo5day chartPreviousClose isperiodreference, NOTnecessarilypriorclose; do notinterpretCLIchangePctasdailyreturn. RSN.SW404excluded, notzero. https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/267260.KS?range=5d&interval=1d
CE R92002 Aug31 Nutrinova conditional monetization = 152
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:04
19%stakesaleforapprox152mUSD,relinquishes4m2025equityearnings,retains11%;Q4expectedclosing subjectconditions,notcashreceived. NutrinovafundsallpurchaseandongoingoperatingcostsoftemporaryCE-operateddiketeneunit; protectsinputavailabilitywithoutCEfunding. https://investors.celanese.com/news/celanese-to-sell-additional-shares-of-nutrinova-joint-venture-to-mitsui-and-co-ltd/2685762a-445e-4def-b7f3-9799963cfd59
CE R92002 FY2025 10K sole-source and integration risk = 50
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:04
Plant-levelsingle sourcesCO,steam,ethylene/site services; almostallNAMmethanolfrom50%-ownedFairwayJV. Concurrenttwosupplieroutagesin2024causedWesternHemisphereaceticacid/VAMforcemajeure. Integrationcreatesbothcostadvantageandcascadingoutagerisk; not immunitytosupplyconstraint. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1306830/000130683026000031/ce-20251231.htm
CE R92002 Aug4 Q2 2026 rent and forward moderation = 321
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:04
IssuerQ2 acetylsales1329m,price+22%qoq volume+6%,adjEBIT321m/24.2%;Q2OCF209mFCF140m; FYguideEPS6,FCF700–800m;Q3EPS1.35–1.75 withmoderatingsupplyopportunities. Managementinterestedprimary; doesnotincludeSeptemberLaxmiletter. https://investors.celanese.com/news/celanese-corporation-reports-second-quarter-earnings/4f485280-d86f-43f3-8068-de01ca04a02c
LXCHEM.NS R92002 Sep15 2026 price vector and allocation
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:04
Issuer customer notice: ethyl acetate112,acetic anhydride114,n-butyl acetate138,n-propyl acetate150 INR/kg immediatepayment,allocation subjectavailability; constrainedimportedinputs expectedthroughOctober. VersusSep7 +6.667%,+11.765%,+14.050%,-12.791%; n-propyl FALLS despitegeneralinflationlanguage. MacroHORMUZ/Brent claims attributedtoissuer not independentlyverified. https://www.laxmi.com/documents/default.aspx?f=customer-info/price-announcement-1049.pdf
LXCHEM.NS R92002 Sep7 2026 immediate-payment price vector
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:04
Issuer notice: ethyl acetate105,acetic anhydride102,n-butyl acetate121,n-propyl acetate172 INR/kg; allocation andforce majeure persist. Claimedfeedstockrise100–150USD/MT sinceSeptember1; forecasttightnessOctober/earlyNovember, notrealizedfuture supply. https://www.laxmi.com/documents/default.aspx?f=customer-info/price-announcement-1048.pdf
QQQ Primary issuer exposure audit
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 02:04
RetrievedSep20 issuer defines Nasdaq100 as100largest nonfinancial Nasdaq companies and describes QQQ nondiversified. Holdings table failed to load; exact current sector weights unverified. No numerical QQQ concentration assumed. https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html
LXCHEM.NS R92002 Aug27 2026 primary customer allocation notice = 20
Supply chain2026-09-20 02:04
Issuer customer letter reports15–20day imported vessel delays, stockouts, forced production cuts and force majeure throughSeptember expectation. Direct operator testimony, commercially interested; weather/macro explanation not independently verified. https://www.laxmi.com/documents/default.aspx?f=customer-info/market-update-1047.pdf
IWM Primary issuer exposure audit = 18.31
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 02:04
Issuer Sep17 PE18.31/PB2.11,healthcare20.39%,financials19.37%,IT13.21%,1957holdings; Aug31beta1.24. Sep18close284.10. RetrievedSep20; direct issuer, marketing interest; measures periods differ. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239710/ishares-russell-2000-etf
EEM Primary issuer exposure audit = 42.24
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 02:04
Issuer Sep17 allocation: IT42.24%; Taiwan28.10/Korea20.60/China19.94%; PE19.40/PB2.69. Sep18 close67.03,NAV67.28,discount-.37%. RetrievedSep20; issuer primary but fund-marketing interest. Planned93.33 gives39.422592 IT and64.061712 three-country dollars. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf
02UTC dependence and gap diagnostics, compact receipt = 76.44269465148402
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 02:04
{"selected":[{"symbol":"QQQ","stress":22.608077650841185,"g":0.109666233203,"allowed_size":93.33},{"symbol":"IWM","stress":27.921384363225883,"g":0.138906519177,"allowed_size":93.33},{"symbol":"EEM","stress":25.913232637416957,"g":0.125794155019,"allowed_size":93.33}],"n":1260,"down_n":599,"correlations":{"QQQ":{"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.7781662048356034,"EEM":0.6926235176803753},"IWM":{"QQQ":0.7781662048356034,"IWM":1,"EEM":0.6505445311866914},"EEM":{"QQQ":0.6926235176803753,"IWM":0.6505445311866914,"EEM":1}},"down_correlations":{"QQQ":{"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.6150609146383946,"EEM":0.47572285021756744},"IWM":{"QQQ":0.6150609146383946,"IWM":1,"EEM":0.3967797539819902},"EEM":{"QQQ":0.47572285021756744,"IWM":0.3967797539819902,"EEM":1}},"sim":{"p05":-22.652305889862777,"median":2.1008072986296393,"p95":28.78105414932699},"stress_total":76.44269465148402,"eem_it_dollars":39.422592,"eem_taiwan_korea_china_dollars":64.061712} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
XLRE R92002 completed signal and adjustment audit = 0.012913486663970741
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:03
{"symbol":"XLRE","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","n":1687,"close":42.53,"returns":{"21":-0.054678817515003364,"63":-0.021849126034958477,"126":0.030281007751937983,"252":0.04676347526458269},"score":0.0001291348666397074,"sma200":42.77705,"atr20":0.5022400000000001,"high20":45.465,"p90":0.10853497921567627,"p90_n":1255,"above":false,"limit":42.74,"split_repaired":false,"split_ratio":null,"rank":8,"chosen_qty":0} Retrieved Sep20 02UTC; period through Sep18. Vendor adjusted return proxy, independent dividend completeness unverified; confirmed missing split repaired once, raw response retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLRE&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
XLU R92002 completed signal and adjustment audit = -6.1395445369241655
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:03
{"symbol":"XLU","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","n":1687,"close":41.1,"returns":{"21":-0.06633348477964562,"63":-0.07598920863309344,"126":-0.10496515679442509,"252":0.0017060687301975186},"score":-0.06139544536924166,"sma200":44.222125,"atr20":0.6355299999999993,"high20":43.96,"p90":0.10239288498446239,"p90_n":1255,"above":false,"limit":41.31,"split_repaired":true,"split_ratio":0.5001167951413221,"rank":11,"chosen_qty":0} Retrieved Sep20 02UTC; period through Sep18. Vendor adjusted return proxy, independent dividend completeness unverified; confirmed missing split repaired once, raw response retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLU&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
XLE R92002 completed signal and adjustment audit = 19.70521568219219
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:03
{"symbol":"XLE","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","n":1687,"close":64.31,"returns":{"21":0.011481597986788383,"63":0.20453268402322533,"126":0.09837745516652441,"252":0.47381689011114947},"score":0.1970521568219219,"sma200":55.314825,"atr20":1.2647249999999997,"high20":66.17,"p90":0.20627946697730823,"p90_n":1255,"above":true,"limit":64.63,"split_repaired":true,"split_ratio":0.49911308203991134,"rank":2,"chosen_qty":1} Retrieved Sep20 02UTC; period through Sep18. Vendor adjusted return proxy, independent dividend completeness unverified; confirmed missing split repaired once, raw response retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLE&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
XLB R92002 completed signal and adjustment audit = 2.4088900441124936
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:03
{"symbol":"XLB","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","n":1687,"close":49.99,"returns":{"21":-0.048172124904798164,"63":-0.03157690817512582,"126":0.05575501583949305,"252":0.12034961900493069},"score":0.02408890044112494,"sma200":50.173925,"atr20":0.7882599999999993,"high20":54.19,"p90":0.10243167306427377,"p90_n":1255,"above":false,"limit":50.24,"split_repaired":true,"split_ratio":0.5011454753722795,"rank":5,"chosen_qty":0} Retrieved Sep20 02UTC; period through Sep18. Vendor adjusted return proxy, independent dividend completeness unverified; confirmed missing split repaired once, raw response retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLB&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
R92002 tokenization announcement timing and limits = 5
Convex tail2026-09-20 02:03
Read Sep20. SEC Sep17 primary announcement: temporary conditional exchange/dealer relief for permissioned tokenized NMS-stock venues/liquidity providers;5-year expiry after publication; symbol/volume limits, equivalent holder rights, issuer objection opportunity, concurrent trading halts. Already announced, not a fresh future dated catalyst. No demonstrated UNI/COIN/HOOD revenue transfer; direction and magnitude unknown. https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-90-sec-issues-innovation-exemption-facilitate-trading-tokenized-nms-stock-request-comment
XLI R92002 completed signal and adjustment audit = 1.2816263840419757
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:03
{"symbol":"XLI","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","n":1687,"close":169.75,"returns":{"21":-0.06705138774388564,"63":-0.059400454369147204,"126":0.04013480392156876,"252":0.1375820935531431},"score":0.012816263840419756,"sma200":171.1439,"atr20":2.3982499999999987,"high20":181.24,"p90":0.12087676778130486,"p90_n":1255,"above":false,"limit":170.6,"split_repaired":false,"split_ratio":null,"rank":6,"chosen_qty":0} Retrieved Sep20 02UTC; period through Sep18. Vendor adjusted return proxy, independent dividend completeness unverified; confirmed missing split repaired once, raw response retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
XLF R92002 completed signal and adjustment audit = 5.434559157153523
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:03
{"symbol":"XLF","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","n":1687,"close":55.86,"returns":{"21":-0.028183716075156573,"63":0.04645934807043828,"126":0.1500926497838171,"252":0.049014084507042144},"score":0.054345591571535234,"sma200":53.4515,"atr20":0.7088450000000005,"high20":58.6,"p90":0.11838838877512908,"p90_n":1255,"above":true,"limit":56.14,"split_repaired":false,"split_ratio":null,"rank":4,"chosen_qty":0} Retrieved Sep20 02UTC; period through Sep18. Vendor adjusted return proxy, independent dividend completeness unverified; confirmed missing split repaired once, raw response retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLF&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
ETH/USD 02UTC completed-bar momentum and reference exit table = -0.41123549014783833
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 02:03
{"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-19 00:00:00+00:00","bars":2088,"close":2632.425,"annual":-0.41123549014783833,"sma":2073.6830831083275,"atr":98.56906743532497,"p90":0.42328883963806774,"p90_n":1826,"above":true,"high20":2665.72,"rank":7,"size":0} Retrieved Sep20 02UTC; feed closest bar source; stocks Sep18/crypto Sep19. Adjusted daily closes are total-return proxy, 252/365 intervals, arithmetic ATR20, trailing five-year rolling60 endpoints; sizes conditional, not fills. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
XLV R92002 completed signal and adjustment audit = 12.442229112273706
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:03
{"symbol":"XLV","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","n":1687,"close":168.39,"returns":{"21":-0.04149590163934436,"63":0.13210972166196022,"126":0.1583545435784548,"252":0.24872080088987758},"score":0.12442229112273706,"sma200":155.18015000000003,"atr20":2.1654699999999965,"high20":175.82,"p90":0.10628648222527133,"p90_n":1255,"above":true,"limit":169.23,"split_repaired":false,"split_ratio":null,"rank":3,"chosen_qty":0} Retrieved Sep20 02UTC; period through Sep18. Vendor adjusted return proxy, independent dividend completeness unverified; confirmed missing split repaired once, raw response retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLV&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
BTC/USD 02UTC completed-bar momentum and reference exit table = -0.29782168636543105
Core trend fractional2026-09-20 02:03
{"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-19 00:00:00+00:00","bars":2088,"close":81239.166,"annual":-0.29782168636543105,"sma":70464.58972958945,"atr":2233.81038940355,"p90":0.36718658848933106,"p90_n":1826,"above":true,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0} Retrieved Sep20 02UTC; feed closest bar source; stocks Sep18/crypto Sep19. Adjusted daily closes are total-return proxy, 252/365 intervals, arithmetic ATR20, trailing five-year rolling60 endpoints; sizes conditional, not fills. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
XLP R92002 completed signal and adjustment audit = 1.0267345705447017
Whole-share momentum backstop2026-09-20 02:03
{"symbol":"XLP","date":"2026-09-18 04:00:00+00:00","n":1687,"close":82.8,"returns":{"21":-0.0432170094753872,"63":0.0008461259518917075,"126":0.02285361334156888,"252":0.060586653003714686},"score":0.010267345705447017,"sma200":82.96825000000001,"atr20":0.89176,"high20":87.465,"p90":0.07653027888248405,"p90_n":1255,"above":false,"limit":83.21,"split_repaired":false,"split_ratio":null,"rank":7,"chosen_qty":0} Retrieved Sep20 02UTC; period through Sep18. Vendor adjusted return proxy, independent dividend completeness unverified; confirmed missing split repaired once, raw response retained. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
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