18 paired eventwindows, OLS netCHWYret=alpha+beta*SPYsamewindowrawret, no causal inference/no fitted signal. {"n":18,"intercept_pct":-4.333250975844589,"spy_beta":3.0204748838594755,"correlation":0.8482905164094268,"r_squared":0.7195968002301716,"oos_excess_mean_pct":-0.6108028773112409}. Pooling training and holdout is diagnostic after decision; no longer uninspected sample. SmallN, overlapping regimes and issuer selection limit soundness.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Ledger payoff and gap stress; CHWY diagnostic simulation
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:09
Computed Sep5 with artifacts/risk.py seed20260905; ledger fills direct, 2 forced exits censored. CHWY simulated resampled252jointdailyOHLC relative-price vectors with replacement,20k9-sessionpaths,stopfirst if both levels touched,gapstopatworseopen,targetatlimit,10bppersidecost. Conditional stationary resampling diagnostic NOT calibrated future event probability or15min execution. Results {"simulation":{"seed":20260905,"paths":20000,"horizon_sessions":9,"source_days":252,"diagnostic_entry":23.67,"diagnostic_stop":22.78875,"diagnostic_target":25.432500000000005,"stop_pct":67.22,"target_pct":25.955000000000002,"time_exit_pct":6.825,"win_pct":30.625000000000004,"mean_return_pct":-0.7871382534158571,"return_quantiles_5_50_95_pct":[-4.095272493980356,-3.9154286777860814,7.231456756171606],"two_share_pnl_quantiles":[-1.9387019986503005,-1.853563936063931,3.4233716283716387]},"ledger":[{"symbol":"MIRM","trade_id":5,"return_pct":-0.4393212687920589,"pnl":-0.2855148925559953,"exit_R":-0.06982703395259335,"original_RR":1.0819987187700193,"days_held":1.9578289120370371,"reason":"operator liquidation"},{"symbol":"IONS","trade_id":4,"return_pct":-2.8424202127659504,"pnl":-1.8472888958399931,"exit_R":-0.4110576923076911,"original_RR":1.4038461538461557,"days_held":1.9680921064814814,"reason":"operator liquidation"},{"symbol":"RARE","trade_id":2,"return_pct":-45.860061919504645,"pnl":-29.804454238440957,"exit_R":-6.440347826086957,"original_RR":1.7173913043478264,"days_held":0.9684174074074073,"reason":"stop"}],"ledger_stats":{"n":3,"win_rate_pct":0,"mean_loss_pct":16.380601133687552,"pnl_total":-31.937258026836947,"stop_exits":1,"forced_exits":2,"average_win_pct":null},"gap_stress":{"observed_RARE_loss_fraction":0.45860061919504647,"equity_risk_dollars":8.5108,"notional_at_observed_gap":18.558195614603584,"full_fund_loss_at_observed_gap":22.535634427244585,"full_fund_loss_pct_equity":2.647886735353267,"zero_recovery_notional_cap":8.5108}}
runway query_trades fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
IONS September4 completed IEX daily bar and technical diagnostics = 58.1
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:09
Retrieved Sep5 2026; daily all-adjusted IEX bars from2021-11-01 through2026-09-04, one page no remaining token. IEX volume is NOT consolidated volume and OHLC is not venue executable quote. Formulas SMA20/50, Wilder ATR14/RSI14, arithmetic20-day high-low ADR,20-sessionclose return. Full metrics {"symbol":"IONS","date":"2026-09-04","close":58.1,"day_pct":0.0430477830391629,"return20_pct":2.7409372236958607,"sma20":59.472500000000004,"sma50":61.2298,"adr20":1.5877500000000009,"atr14":1.9413539617613655,"rsi14":44.88398751822138,"low20":54.965,"high20":64.15,"iex_volume":140131,"whole_shares_fundcap":0}. Raw dataset SHA256 undefined; artifacts/technical.json. No fresh trade signal inferred from indicator alone.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY September4 completed IEX daily bar and technical diagnostics = 770.18
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:09
Retrieved Sep5 2026; daily all-adjusted IEX bars from2021-11-01 through2026-09-04, one page no remaining token. IEX volume is NOT consolidated volume and OHLC is not venue executable quote. Formulas SMA20/50, Wilder ATR14/RSI14, arithmetic20-day high-low ADR,20-sessionclose return. Full metrics {"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-04","close":770.18,"day_pct":-0.3796330429496342,"return20_pct":-0.38543121734182506,"sma20":769.0065,"sma50":756.8225,"adr20":4.337000000000001,"atr14":6.179444054456599,"rsi14":55.684541901701294,"low20":759.49,"high20":779.37,"iex_volume":1009491,"whole_shares_fundcap":0}. Raw dataset SHA256 undefined; artifacts/technical.json. No fresh trade signal inferred from indicator alone.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
KR September4 completed IEX daily bar and technical diagnostics = 58.58
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:09
Retrieved Sep5 2026; daily all-adjusted IEX bars from2021-11-01 through2026-09-04, one page no remaining token. IEX volume is NOT consolidated volume and OHLC is not venue executable quote. Formulas SMA20/50, Wilder ATR14/RSI14, arithmetic20-day high-low ADR,20-sessionclose return. Full metrics {"symbol":"KR","date":"2026-09-04","close":58.58,"day_pct":0.17099863201095467,"return20_pct":3.975860844870427,"sma20":57.27874999999999,"sma50":57.42830000000001,"adr20":1.075500000000001,"atr14":1.3238282794842609,"rsi14":56.06970955516512,"low20":54.91,"high20":59.2,"iex_volume":213101,"whole_shares_fundcap":0}. Raw dataset SHA256 undefined; artifacts/technical.json. No fresh trade signal inferred from indicator alone.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
GME September4 completed IEX daily bar and technical diagnostics = 19.17
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:09
Retrieved Sep5 2026; daily all-adjusted IEX bars from2021-11-01 through2026-09-04, one page no remaining token. IEX volume is NOT consolidated volume and OHLC is not venue executable quote. Formulas SMA20/50, Wilder ATR14/RSI14, arithmetic20-day high-low ADR,20-sessionclose return. Full metrics {"symbol":"GME","date":"2026-09-04","close":19.17,"day_pct":-0.31201248049921304,"return20_pct":0.15673981191222097,"sma20":18.438500000000005,"sma50":20.2642,"adr20":0.39925000000000016,"atr14":0.4829409437407498,"rsi14":51.48907002445387,"low20":17.795,"high20":19.59,"iex_volume":285730,"whole_shares_fundcap":2}. Raw dataset SHA256 undefined; artifacts/technical.json. No fresh trade signal inferred from indicator alone.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CHWY September4 completed IEX daily bar and technical diagnostics = 23.67
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:09
Retrieved Sep5 2026; daily all-adjusted IEX bars from2021-11-01 through2026-09-04, one page no remaining token. IEX volume is NOT consolidated volume and OHLC is not venue executable quote. Formulas SMA20/50, Wilder ATR14/RSI14, arithmetic20-day high-low ADR,20-sessionclose return. Full metrics {"symbol":"CHWY","date":"2026-09-04","close":23.67,"day_pct":-1.2103505843071738,"return20_pct":0.6163655685441194,"sma20":23.3475,"sma50":22.2467,"adr20":0.8812500000000005,"atr14":0.9310332705990436,"rsi14":54.27197960812248,"low20":21.965,"high20":25.37,"iex_volume":735164,"whole_shares_fundcap":2}. Raw dataset SHA256 undefined; artifacts/technical.json. No fresh trade signal inferred from indicator alone.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ADBE September4 completed IEX daily bar and technical diagnostics = 266.51
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:09
Retrieved Sep5 2026; daily all-adjusted IEX bars from2021-11-01 through2026-09-04, one page no remaining token. IEX volume is NOT consolidated volume and OHLC is not venue executable quote. Formulas SMA20/50, Wilder ATR14/RSI14, arithmetic20-day high-low ADR,20-sessionclose return. Full metrics {"symbol":"ADBE","date":"2026-09-04","close":266.51,"day_pct":-6.733158355205604,"return20_pct":0.5072313465200873,"sma20":274.11175,"sma50":248.8391,"adr20":9.160999999999994,"atr14":10.94780720127157,"rsi14":48.87549262402375,"low20":251.21,"high20":294.44,"iex_volume":290233,"whole_shares_fundcap":0}. Raw dataset SHA256 undefined; artifacts/technical.json. No fresh trade signal inferred from indicator alone.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
RARE September4 completed IEX daily bar and technical diagnostics = 15.26
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:09
Retrieved Sep5 2026; daily all-adjusted IEX bars from2021-11-01 through2026-09-04, one page no remaining token. IEX volume is NOT consolidated volume and OHLC is not venue executable quote. Formulas SMA20/50, Wilder ATR14/RSI14, arithmetic20-day high-low ADR,20-sessionclose return. Full metrics {"symbol":"RARE","date":"2026-09-04","close":15.26,"day_pct":2.864846646444219,"return20_pct":-41.09245319436402,"sma20":25.03425,"sma50":27.708399999999997,"adr20":0.9712500000000002,"atr14":1.9289196527763393,"rsi14":21.122912280008748,"low20":13.835,"high20":28.39,"iex_volume":272840,"whole_shares_fundcap":3}. Raw dataset SHA256 undefined; artifacts/technical.json. No fresh trade signal inferred from indicator alone.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
MIRM September4 completed IEX daily bar and technical diagnostics = 100.89
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:09
Retrieved Sep5 2026; daily all-adjusted IEX bars from2021-11-01 through2026-09-04, one page no remaining token. IEX volume is NOT consolidated volume and OHLC is not venue executable quote. Formulas SMA20/50, Wilder ATR14/RSI14, arithmetic20-day high-low ADR,20-sessionclose return. Full metrics {"symbol":"MIRM","date":"2026-09-04","close":100.89,"day_pct":0.31818633787412676,"return20_pct":0.26335403726707174,"sma20":98.9845,"sma50":109.03640000000001,"adr20":2.375249999999999,"atr14":3.0942840300031316,"rsi14":48.46998482783283,"low20":95.46,"high20":104.64,"iex_volume":33266,"whole_shares_fundcap":0}. Raw dataset SHA256 undefined; artifacts/technical.json. No fresh trade signal inferred from indicator alone.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Flat book and available risk budget = 49.14
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:06
Live ledger read Sep5 shows 3 closed Catalyst trades, no open/pending; KR9 armed, none due; job9 active33runs every240min, next00:30UTC. User supplies equity851.08, fund cash49.14, per-position212.77, 1%equity8.5108. No holding stops/targets to reset. PATH options lesson and social monitor outside Catalyst ownership.
runway query_trades fund=catalyst; runway list_monitors fund=catalyst; user venue snapshot 2026-09-05T00:00:21.773Z
Research scope exclusions and source-access gaps
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:06
Read Sep5 UTC: HPE issuer Q3 already reported Sep2, not upcoming run-up. Oracle event index yielded no exact forthcoming earnings date. ETH primary roadmap last updatedAug6 has SepoliaSep28/Q4mainnet date unconfirmed; newer community reports conflict with testnet date, so no timing action taken and no ETH edge claimed. FDA Sep16 is pediatric postmarket safety review, not single-drug approval panel. Inditex primary calendar access failed; secondary repost saysSep9, kept unverified for this mandate. Search is bounded, not proof no other catalyst exists. Direct Chewy scrape403; used web-accessible original releases instead; no successful reusable scraper claimed.
https://www.hpe.com/us/en/newsroom/press-release/2026/09/hpe-reports-fiscal-2026-third-quarter-results.html ; https://investor.oracle.com/events-and-presentations/default.aspx ; https://ethereum.org/roadmap/glamsterdam/ ; https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar ; https://www.inditex.com/itxcomweb/en/investors/financial-data/financial-calendar
CHWY Historical earnings announcement and event date
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:05
Issuer announcement October 26, 2023; scheduled earnings December 6, 2023 AMC. Read September5 2026 using issuer web page. Original issuer scheduling source, commercially interested; announcement availability checked before entry in fixed-rule test. Training calendar2022-24; chronological holdout calendar2025-June2026.
https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2023/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Third-Quarter-2023-Financial-Results-Conference-Call-and-Inaugural-Investor-Day/default.aspx
CHWY Historical earnings announcement and event date
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:05
Issuer announcement August 20, 2025; scheduled earnings September 10, 2025 BMO. Read September5 2026 using issuer web page. Original issuer scheduling source, commercially interested; announcement availability checked before entry in fixed-rule test. Training calendar2022-24; chronological holdout calendar2025-June2026.
https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx
CHWY Historical earnings announcement and event date
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:05
Issuer announcement March 3, 2025; scheduled earnings March 26, 2025 BMO. Read September5 2026 using issuer web page. Original issuer scheduling source, commercially interested; announcement availability checked before entry in fixed-rule test. Training calendar2022-24; chronological holdout calendar2025-June2026.
https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx
CHWY Historical earnings announcement and event date
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:05
Issuer announcement May 9, 2025; scheduled earnings June 11, 2025 BMO. Read September5 2026 using issuer web page. Original issuer scheduling source, commercially interested; announcement availability checked before entry in fixed-rule test. Training calendar2022-24; chronological holdout calendar2025-June2026.
https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-First-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx
CHWY Historical earnings announcement and event date
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:05
Issuer announcement May 18, 2026; scheduled earnings June 10, 2026 BMO. Read September5 2026 using issuer web page. Original issuer scheduling source, commercially interested; announcement availability checked before entry in fixed-rule test. Training calendar2022-24; chronological holdout calendar2025-June2026.
https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-First-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx
CHWY Historical earnings announcement and event date
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:05
Issuer announcement March 2, 2026; scheduled earnings March 25, 2026 BMO. Read September5 2026 using issuer web page. Original issuer scheduling source, commercially interested; announcement availability checked before entry in fixed-rule test. Training calendar2022-24; chronological holdout calendar2025-June2026.
https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx
CHWY Historical earnings announcement and event date
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:05
Issuer announcement November 19, 2025; scheduled earnings December 10, 2025 BMO. Read September5 2026 using issuer web page. Original issuer scheduling source, commercially interested; announcement availability checked before entry in fixed-rule test. Training calendar2022-24; chronological holdout calendar2025-June2026.
https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2025/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Third-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx
CHWY Historical earnings announcement and event date
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-05 00:05
Issuer announcement November 13, 2024; scheduled earnings December 4, 2024 BMO. Read September5 2026 using issuer web page. Original issuer scheduling source, commercially interested; announcement availability checked before entry in fixed-rule test. Training calendar2022-24; chronological holdout calendar2025-June2026.
https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2024/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Third-Quarter-2024-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx