Runway

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3882 analyses, newest first
SFIX Event
BacktestsinconclusiveConvex eventsSFIX2026-09-11 02:20
A news scan found the headline about SFIX being a costed event-run-up stock proxy, with an unproven option edge. An edge test was done on several stocks, including PLAY, VRA, SFIX, and TCOM, with specific option prices and dates, such as PLAY's Oct 16 C 10 at $0.40 and P 7 at $0.50, which required a 27.294982% and -20.440636% change, respectively. The test results showed that all of these failed to meet a 40% threshold, with no documented actual option expected payout greater than or equal to 3 times the initial investment. The sources of this information include issuer schedules and data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars, with catalog closes dated September 9 checked with September 10 delayed bars. The premises of this test include a daily close-marked portfolio with an initial value of $1000, full stock notional, and long or short direction with a 2, 3, or 5 session lag sweep. The results of the test for SFIX, with a lag of 5 and a long direction, showed a return of 20.80233886442895 and a drawdown of 10.53865980656219 during the training phase, and a return of 9.472963631986762 and a drawdown of 6.811989100817417 during the holdout phase. However, the two holdout trades were not enough to establish a stable expectancy, and the positive underlying proxy did not model option theta, vega, or spread. There were no actual option historical returns, and no strategy was adopted.
return9.47
drawdown6.81
win rate100
sample2
training_return20.8
training_sample6
lag5
directionlong
fees_bp10
slippage_bp10
TCOM Event
BacktestsinconclusiveConvex eventsTCOM2026-09-11 02:20
The automated trading fund manager tested the stock of TCOM as a proxy for an event. The test involved buying and selling options of TCOM and other stocks, including PLAY, VRA, and SFIX, to see if the strategy would work. The manager used a computer program to analyze the data and make decisions. A key concept used here is 'option edge', which refers to the potential profit from buying and selling options. The test results showed that the strategy did not work well for any of the stocks, with required price changes of +27.294982% and -20.440636% for PLAY, -21.311475% for VRA, -17.543860% for SFIX, and +17.105943% and -10.801034% for TCOM. The manager used a'vectorbt daily close-marked portfolio' which is a way of tracking the performance of a group of stocks, and'slippage' which refers to the difference between the expected and actual price of a trade. The manager also used 'lag' which means waiting for a certain number of sessions before making a trade. The results were not good enough to adopt the strategy, with no trades showing a return of more than three times the investment. The manager also noted that the strategy did not take into account the 'theta','vega', and'spread' of the options, which are measures of their price and risk. The manager decided not to use this strategy because it did not work well and did not have enough historical data to support it. A news scan found the data used in the test, which included issuer schedules and stock prices from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars.
return6.67
drawdown2.72
win rate100
sample2
training_return2.88
training_sample6
lag5
directionshort
fees_bp10
slippage_bp10
VRA Event Test
BacktestsinconclusiveConvex eventsVRA2026-09-11 02:20
The automated trading fund manager tested the stock VRA as a proxy for an event. The test used options, which are contracts that give the buyer the right to buy or sell a stock at a certain price, to see if they could make a profit. The manager looked at the options for VRA with a strike price of $2.5 and an expiration date of October 16. The test required the stock price to move up or down by a certain percentage, specifically 21.311475%, in order to make a profit. However, the test failed to show a profit, with a median absolute percentage change of 10.350471%. The manager also tested other stocks, including PLAY, SFIX, and TCOM, but all of them failed to show a profit. The manager used data from the issuer's schedules and websites, including https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars, to make the tests. The manager assumed that the portfolio would start with $1000 and that the fees for buying and selling would be 10 basis points, or 0.1%, and that the slippage, or difference between the expected and actual prices, would also be 10 basis points. The manager trained the model using a sample of 10 events and then tested it on 2 holdout events, but the results were not stable and did not show a clear profit. The manager also found that the stock price could move in the opposite direction of the option price, resulting in a loss. Therefore, the manager did not adopt the strategy. A news scan found the data line: the manager did not use a technical screener strategy to select the stocks.
return5.36
drawdown3.32
win rate100
sample2
training_return36.75
training_sample10
lag2
directionshort
fees_bp10
slippage_bp10
PLAY Event Test
BacktestsinconclusiveConvex eventsPLAY2026-09-11 02:20
The automated trading fund manager tested the stock PLAY as a proxy for an event. The test involved buying and selling options for PLAY and other stocks, including VRA, SFIX, and TCOM, with specific prices and dates, such as the Oct16C10 option for PLAY at $0.40. The test required certain percentage changes in the stock prices, for example, +27.294982% for PLAY, but all the tests failed to meet the 40% threshold. The manager used data from issuer schedules and websites, including https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and made assumptions about fees and slippage. The manager trained a model on historical data, with parameters such as a 2-session lag and long direction, and evaluated its performance on two holdout events. However, the results were not stable, and the manager did not adopt the strategy due to the lack of historical returns data for actual options and the potential for option losses even with positive stock direction. A news scan found the data, which is a raw script output.
return-4.69
drawdown8.42
win rate50
sample2
training_return0.81
training_sample10
lag2
directionlong
fees_bp10
slippage_bp10
NET911 Allocation
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsTBN, NEOV, CNXC, EPM, TLX, SRRK, INTG, BB2026-09-11 02:19
The automated trading fund manager started with $49.14 in catalyst cash and $850.99 in the account, with no holdings or queued orders. The goal is to achieve asymmetric dated earnings or FDA run-up with an exit before the first news, which is a type of event that can impact stock prices, also known as a catalyst. A binding constraint, or a rule that must be followed, is to implement an event edge, not a monthly shortfall of $349.01. The premises, or assumptions, include a full universe calendar join of 13,176 listings, 227 leads, and 231 price vectors, which yielded 10 technical passes. There were 3,057 foreign listing rows recorded, but these are not independent companies. New issuer dates include TBN on September 25, USA, NEOV on September 23, AMC, and CNXC on September 29, AMC, which correct discovery errors. NUVL has a stale PDUFA, or a US Food and Drug Administration approval, that has already been approved or acquired, and TLX/SRRK has no early decision seen in RSS, or a type of news feed, but this is not proof that it is pending. TBN has a costed fixed T-5 study, which is a type of statistical analysis, with a mean of 10.34245% and a confidence interval of [-0.4535, 3.6226]. The selected small history, current first gas regime, and unvalidated intraday management mean paper only, with T-5 on September 18 not being used now. NEOV has signed input cells and a framework, but not firm 18GWh sales, and full May 14 cash old, the day before the call. CNXC has a GAAP margin of 3.9%, which is below the SMA20, or a type of moving average. The EPM paper, or a type of financial model, is unchanged, and the train is -6.55%. The conclusion is that there are no orders or exits moved, and cash is chosen for reviewed payoff and validation gaps, not proof that the whole market lacks an edge, or a competitive advantage. The training TBN has a half Kelly, which is a type of betting strategy, of 12.292 capital fraction, which is unstable with an N1 loss, and approved 0. There is a whole 39.33 share 4.622% account total loss, which is not a quarter probe, or a type of financial analysis. The validity, or accuracy, of the results is bounded by retrospective calendar, selected survivors, small N, missing paid cash, and execution. A countercase, or an alternative scenario, is that new productive capacity could drive a fat-tail rally, or a type of stock price increase, and preserve prospective paper and collect cash rather than move past test entry. The monitors 235/236 are resolved, and 249 TBN/250 NEOV with CNXC are armed, or ready to trade. The older EPM 168/TLX 193 is preserved, or kept. A new collector and shortened name were tested after 60 character validation reject, and the final note holds the job id and receipt. There is no FUND case, or a type of investment strategy, with no validated separate operation. The sources of the data include https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/, https://neovolta.com/blog/neovolta-q4-fy26-earnings-call-timing, https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Investor-Conference-Call/default.aspx, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, https://telixpharma.com/feed/, and https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml. The gaps, or missing data, include INTG/ATLO/NEOG/CWBC/HCWC dates, foreign eligibility and primary coverage, BB release body, CPRT cash and agreement, ORCL and ADBE calls, NEOV history and current funding, TBN cash and early news vintages, and not called absence, or a lack of data.
fund_cash49.14
orders0
holdings0
US_listings13176
US_calendar_leads227
foreign_listing_rows3057
TBN_training_pct10.34
TBN_holdout_pct5.35
TBN_holdout_n2
TBN_target_hits0
allocation0
R91102 Review
StrategieswatchSupply chainLPG, VIST, SWKS, CCJ, FTK, AVAV, BWEN, GD2026-09-11 02:19
The automated trading fund manager made the following observations: Monitor237 checked the website https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv and found that as of September 4, the total was 11,868 kbpd. The manager also reviewed the Panama Canal operations summary for August 2026, which reported 34.90 hours and 1,029 transits, unchanged from before. Additionally, the manager noted that September maintenance is tentative and the LPG signal is false. Monitor238 reviewed the latest submissions from BWEN and GD on the SEC website, including an 8-K filing from BWEN on August 21 and a Form 4 filing from GD on September 10, but found no new operative cash instrument. Monitor239 checked the Flotek Industries website and found that the issuer had unchanged guidance as of September 9, but this does not verify collection or restart. The manager also noted that the TSM monthly direct 403/web navigation only has a correction status that is unknown, not unchanged. Monitor240 checked the AVAV issuer and found that it still points to a replay, but the link returns a 404 error. There was no automatic entry and the old FTK-63.61% holdout was not reopened. The book shows no filled or pending positions in the user context and trade history, and the R/daysheld is N/A. The Collector200 verified two actual END receipts at 00:15 and 01:15, but the 02:15 receipt was not yet visible on a 02:16 query. A new combined collector local was tested before a venue change, and the actual queued id and receipts were recorded separately. Any missing information was kept as unknown, with the next update scheduled for 04 UTC for specific branches.
EIA_total_kbpd11868
ACP_hours34.9
ACP_transits1029
AVAV_HTTP404
FTK_frozen_return-63.62
LPG_signal0
orders0
QTR9110200 Decision
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationXLE, XLK, XLI, AXTI, SNDK, WOLF, ASML, HSBC, SWKS, QRVO, BTC/USD2026-09-11 02:18
The final decision for QTR9110200 is to retain broad discovery, but not adopt it live. The starting state had $187.22 in cash and $850.99 in the account, with no open or pending orders verified at 02:18. The goal is to achieve repeatable positive net returns. A binding constraint, which is a rule that must be followed, was independently validated, along with the current entry timing, which refers to the timing of when to enter a trade. The premises for this decision include: 1) a broad US roster of 13,176 attempts, with 12,128 usable, and 2,351 long momentum ranks archived, as well as 20 overseas panels and 25 crypto pairs with named coverage gaps. 2) The original AQR momentum, which is a measure of the speed of price changes, was replicated as an explicitly different monthly sector 3R adapter, with 8 costed cells reconciled. 3) A frozen 252 stress train, which is a test of the system's performance, showed a -7.73207% return, with a holdout of 70.31862% and a mean confidence interval of [-0.04849, 2.13027]%. 4) No mid-month entry under the rule was allowed, and whole-share $62.41 USD sleeves cannot buy top sectors, with 15-minute break-even and gaps unvalidated. 5) Issuer leaders showed genuine operating strength, but gaps in WOLF share continuity, ASML cash conversion, and SWKS clearance defeated headline entry. The conclusion is to have zero open, close, cancel, or adjust orders, with cash chosen due to a lack of validated current asymmetric payoff. The valid inference under the frozen policy is sound, but limited by current roster survivorship, vendor actions, short 2016-18 training, global calendar and FX, empirical bootstrap, and daily exit proxy. The strongest counterargument is that a positive holdout could pay, but the next prospective whole-share and 15-minute implementation is appropriate, and retuning over the inspected holdout is not. The Half Kelly live is 0, and the funding gap of $349.01 does not set a target. The ledger N3 all operator liquidations realized -1.04605 cannot calibrate the horizon. Monitors 234 were resolved, and 24804 UTC and 247 Sep 11 note expiry, 229 AVAV paper, and 185 CPI were preserved. The collector 203 was tested with 2 of 4 access gaps, remote unverified, and 196 last verified at 01:45, not assumed at 02:15, with success, and 85/15 retained. Lessons 730-732 were learned. There is no separate operation outside the Quant mandate. The sources used include https://www.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/Documents/Journal-Articles/JPM-Fact-Fiction-and-Momentum-Investing.pdf, https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt, and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with issuer originals 2425/2440. The research took about 18 minutes, and the protected final phase began 15 minutes before the report was completed within 20 minutes, with 43 planned and 45 hard, and no budget overrun.
fund cash187.22
equity850.99
orders0
live halfKelly0
US screened12128
US ranked2351
foreign panel20
crypto panel25
train stress pct-7.73
holdout stress pct70.32
holdout trades190
holdout DD pct21.86
TCOM Earnings Coverage
StatisticalrejectConvex eventsTCOM2026-09-11 02:18
A test was done on TCOM's earnings coverage, which is a way to measure how well a stock's options reflect its potential price movement. The test looked at the cost of options for TCOM, specifically the October 16 call option at $45 and the September 10 put option at $35, which cost $32 and $48 respectively. The test required a 17.105943% increase or a 10.801034% decrease in the stock price to be considered successful. The results showed that 0 out of 8 call options and 2 out of 8 put options met this requirement, which is 25% of the total. The median absolute percentage change was 4.590973%. The test used the stock's closing price on September 15 as a reference point and did not consider any intraday lows. The test also used historical data from a website, but the data was incomplete and not representative of the stock's full potential. The test found that the current options contracts do not provide enough coverage, with less than 40% of the contracts meeting the required criteria. Additionally, there was no documented evidence of an expected payout of at least 3 times the cost of the option. The test also found that the expiry date of October 16 is more than 7 days after the event. While it is possible for residual option time value to pay out despite the lack of intrinsic coverage, there is no historical evidence to support this. Therefore, the test conditionally rejected the options contract. The test's soundness is limited by stale market data, sparse samples, and changes in market conditions. To reconsider the contract, new evidence is needed, such as a more affordable contract with at least 40% directional coverage or a documented expected payoff of at least 3 times the cost.
sample8
median_absolute_pct4.59
put_coverage2
put_hurdle_pct-10.8
SFIX Earnings Coverage
StatisticalrejectConvex eventsSFIX2026-09-11 02:18
A test was done on Stitch Fix, ticker symbol SFIX, to see if it was a good idea to buy a certain type of contract, called an option, that would expire on October 16. The test looked at the price of the option, $15, and the potential profit, 2.5, and the cost, $0.15, as of September 9. It also looked at the percentage of times the stock price went up or down by a certain amount, 17.543860%, and the average amount it went up or down, 16.578014%. The test used the stock price on September 22 and the next day, September 23, to make its decision. It also looked at the company's schedule for announcing its financial results, which can be found on its website. The test found that the option did not meet certain conditions, such as having a high enough chance of making a profit, at least 40%, or having a high enough potential payout, at least 3 times the cost. Because of this, the test decided not to buy the option. The test also noted that the sample of data used was not complete and may not be representative of the stock's performance. The test will reconsider buying the option if it finds a cheaper one with a higher chance of making a profit or a higher potential payout.
sample8
median_absolute_pct16.58
put_coverage2
put_hurdle_pct-17.54
VRA Earnings Coverage
StatisticalrejectConvex eventsVRA2026-09-11 02:18
A test was done on Vera Bradley's earnings, using the S3.05 Oct 16 P2.5.10 Sep 9 contract, which costs $10. This test requires a -21.311475% change, with no closes above the strike price, and a median absolute change of 10.350471%. The test started on September 15 at 8 ET, after the company's earnings release on September 14. The test used the previous close as the starting point and did not consider intraday lows. The test also used historical data from the primary issuer and daily stock bars. However, the sample was incomplete due to missing data for some stocks. The test found that the coverage was below 40% and there was no expected payout of 3 times or more. Since the hurdle exceeded the absolute median, there was no exception to hold the position. The expiry date of October 16 was more than 7 days after the event. Although it is possible for residual option time value to pay out despite lack of intrinsic coverage, there was no costed history to establish this. Therefore, the test resulted in a valid rejection. The test's soundness was limited by stale marks, sparse samples, and regime changes. To reconsider, there would need to be a newer, more affordable contract with at least 40% directional coverage or a documented expected payoff of 3 times or more. No order was placed.
sample12
median_absolute_pct10.35
put_coverage0
put_hurdle_pct-21.31
R91102 Signals
TechnicalwatchSupply chainLPG, VIST, SWKS, QRVO, CCJ, LEU, ALM, SKHY2026-09-11 02:18
A news scan found the headline 'R91102 combined signals and illustrative 3R levels; no executable order'. The automated trading fund manager's notes state that the signals for VIST, SWKS, and QRVO are true, with prices of 78.95, 84.03, and 112.36 respectively, which are higher than their prior prices of 77.03, 76.54, and 105.24, and their Simple Moving Averages, a calculation to smooth out price data, of 67.9826, 65.52588, and 93.0334. However, the training half Kelly, a betting strategy, is zero for all three. The notes also state that the prices of LPG, CCJ, and LEU are lower than their prior prices, with LPG at 54.41, CCJ at 97.42, and LEU at 165.87, which are lower than 55.20, 107.36, and 194.78 respectively, resulting in a false entry signal. The 50-day Simple Moving Average for SKHY is invalid after 44 bars. The notes provide illustrative risk and target levels for VIST and LPG, with VIST having a risk of 5.57638 and a target of 95.67914, and LPG having a risk of 3.38055 and targets of 51.02945 and 64.55165. The reference close levels are not actual next open or orders, and the range invalidation is not a proof of the fundamental thesis. The candidate prices and IEX screen closes may differ due to feed and last print, and the entry and Simple Moving Average feeds should not be mixed. The fixed targets are not validated after 15 minutes and 2R trailing, and the raw dividend execution for LPG gap remains. There is no requirement for a daily review of the empty book, and no exits have been changed.
VIST_signal1
SWKS_signal1
QRVO_signal1
LPG_signal0
CCJ_signal0
VIST_R5.58
VIST_ref_stop73.37
VIST_ref_target95.68
LPG_R3.38
SKHY_bars44
orders0
C91102 Bar Coverage
TechnicalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-11 02:17
A news scan found the headline about C91102 near-complete bar coverage still leaving stop-execution uncertainty. Premise 1 has 27 symbol/year/timeframe panels that are fully paginated, with 984 daily bars for BTC/ETH and 746 for SOL, and 23614 hourly bars with 4 missing for BTC, 4 missing for ETH, and 7 missing for SOL. Additionally, there are 94321 15-minute bars for BTC, 94326 for ETH, and 71464 for SOL, with 151 missing for BTC, 146 missing for ETH, and 96 missing for SOL. Premise 2 has 99.840% 15-minute coverage for BTC, 99.845% for ETH, and 99.866% for SOL, but there are zero-volume bars, with 21891 for BTC, 35494 for ETH, and 32053 for SOL, and maximum gaps of 195 minutes for BTC, 195 minutes for ETH, and 150 minutes for SOL. Price bar availability is not the same as executable quote history. The conclusion is that 15-minute next actual open backtests are better cadence diagnostics, but not fill-proof, and gaps and zero-volume audits should be used before any order. A new dynamic +2R breakeven/absolute 2 ATR trail, which is a type of stop-loss order, also differs from a static venue percentage trail, which is a type of stop-loss order based on a fixed percentage, and requires verified off-run implementation, which means it needs to be tested and verified outside of the normal trading process. No such automation is authorized by collector output. The validity of this approach is to not fill missing prices, and the soundness is that historical marks and recorded volume may miss potential quote execution in both ways. A counterexample is that zero executed volume does not mean zero bid-ask liquidity, which refers to the availability of buyers and sellers. The source of this information is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots. A Pandas microsecond asi8 label bug was fixed using explicit ns before published metrics. No risk was added.
BTC_15m_bars94321
ETH_15m_bars94326
SOL_15m_bars71464
BTC_15m_missing151
ETH_15m_missing146
SOL_15m_missing96
BTC_zero_volume21891
ETH_zero_volume35494
SOL_zero_volume32053
BTC_maxgap_min195
SOL_maxgap_min150
allocation0
QTR9110200 Issue
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-11 02:17
A news scan found the headline about QTR9110200 CLI zero-bar result missing data, not a flat backtest. The premises include running a node with specific arguments, such as symbols XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY, strategy xs-momentum, lookback 252, top 3, rebalance 21, and days 2500. The CLI returned 0 bars, 0 trades, and 0 return, which is not evidence of a zero economic return. An inspection of the backtest bars JavaScript file revealed that the stock feed is hardcoded to IEX, only the first page is used with no pagination, and there is no explicit end or adjustment. The code's xs portfolio also differs from the full exit rule, skipping a month. An independent script uses paginated SIP with historical cutoff and explicit fees and slippage, vectorbt long only, three event phases per day to avoid losing entry day exits, and all 8 cells of equity and trade counts are reconciled. The data starts from 2016, despite a 2009 request, and is retained in the reported training. The conclusion is to reject the CLI result as validation and use a costed custom result from March 10, 2024, without borrowing CLI returns. The sources include the local CLI bar source and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, as well as research/cli.json/test_sector.py with SHA cb7f6a725110104643a5365188842047459dd903676d41cc28f9a5072e81ae79.
CLI bars0
CLI trades0
custom reconciled cells8
actual data first year2016
requested first year2009
live orders0
QTR9110200 Fund
SimulationsrejectQuant replicationXLE, XLK, XLI2026-09-11 02:17
The fund manager made certain assumptions: they used a sample of daily portfolio data from the last 252 days, divided into three parts, with 3000 units of capital. They started with a seed value of 9110200 and generated 10000 possible paths, re-sampling every 21 days, for a total of 12 blocks, which is equal to 252 trading sessions. This method keeps the relationships within each block, but does not account for new situations, long-term patterns, and future gaps. The fund's performance over 21 sessions showed a loss of 8.5383 USD, a median gain of 1.0334 USD, and a high gain of 11.9949 USD, with a 42.98% chance of loss and zero empirical gain of at least 349.01 USD. The annual return was between -10.6848% and 29.3271%, with a median of 7.1039%, and the drawdown was between 9.4809% and 17.6986%, with a median of 7.1039%. This is not a forecast, and the possibility of zero gain is not impossible. The primary training data showed negative results, so the manager kept half of the Kelly criterion, which is a formula used to determine the optimal amount to bet. A 6.14% risk plugin was considered, but it would be capped at 3% normal risk, or 25.5297 USD, due to the fund's deployment and position ceiling. A total loss of the fund would be 22% of the account, so the fund cap alone is not enough to cover the risk. The strongest argument against this approach is that it does not capture extreme positive outcomes, but this does not justify changing the target to meet the funding gap of 349.01 USD. The rate of return was 7.1887% per year over 7.67 years, compared to a total return of 70.3186%, which is not a monthly return of 70%. The sources used were frozen2406 and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, as well as the research/inference.py/json file.
paths10000
block days21
fund USD187.22
21day P5 USD-8.54
21day median USD1.03
21day P95 USD11.99
loss probability0.43
gain349 probability sample0
annual median pct7.1
annual P95 DD pct17.7
normal account risk USD25.53
live allocation0
QTR9110200 Report
StatisticalinconclusiveQuant replicationXLE, XLK, XLI, SPY, SNOW, DELL, GTLB2026-09-11 02:17
The automated trading fund manager made the following observations: the fund had a 38.4211% win rate, with an average win of 8.2380% and an average loss of 3.4970%, resulting in a mean of 1.01171% over 190 trades in the holdout period. The training period had a mean of -0.51159% and a half Kelly of 0.2. The daily returns of the holdout period were compared to the SPY beta, with a correlation of 0.6300643543775979 and a daily intercept of 0.000012204135180099584. The annual simple intercept was 0.3075442065385095%, which is descriptive but not significant. The fund also analyzed the correlation between XLE and XLK, which was -0.253247, and between XLK and XLI, which was 0.542399. The own ledger had a win rate of 33.33%, with a mean of -0.860974%, and an average win of 7.93994% and an average loss of 5.26143%, resulting in a realized loss of $1.04605. The fund concluded to use a live half Kelly of 0 from the primary training, and the holdout plugin had a 6.1405% risk, which is not a licensed confidence or venue sizing. The data was sourced from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with a query of trades from fundquant on September 11, 02:00 UTC, and research and inference from analyses 2403 to 10.
holdout sample190
holdout mean pct1.01
holdout CI lower-0.05
holdout CI upper2.13
SPY beta0.42
SPY correlation0.63
annual alpha simple pct0.31
trade sample3
ledger win rate33.33
ledger realized USD-1.05
live halfKelly0
Trade Consequences
ConsequenceswatchSupply chainVIST, CCJ, LEU, PRY.MI, SWKS, ALM, LPG2026-09-11 02:17
The automated trading fund manager based its decisions on certain premises from recorded primary fundamentals and annual observations from 23928 to 2430. There are four main points to consider: (1) Oil route constraints can increase delivered prices, which can lead to higher profits for companies like VIST, but this may not be sustainable due to future cash flow assumptions, as seen in Q2 CFO of 985.1m, which includes a 274.2m WC release. (2) Increased nuclear security can lead to higher demand for qualified supply, which can benefit companies like CCJ, but also leads to higher input costs and potential buildout funding issues. (3) Growth in the grid and HBM sectors can increase demand for cables and memory, leading to improved margins for companies like Prysmian and Hynix, and potentially new capacity to relieve constraints. (4) Consolidation and commissioning in the RF sector can lead to increased qualified capacity, but also requires cash for integration and working capital, and demand redesign or substitution can erase premiums, as seen in the cases of Apple, SWKS, and ALM. These points are conditional inferences, not priced probabilities, and are based on premises that are dated and selected, but not sufficient for live allocation. The fund started with 278.67 in cash and aims for an asymmetric net payoff, with binding constraints validated through entry, normalized cash, and execution, rather than funding shortfall. Additionally, LPG physical waiting can charge carrier without paid fixture uplift.
fund_cash278.67
VIST_WC_release_m274.2
SWKS_Apple_pct67
LEU_SWU_price_pct3
LEU_SWU_cost_pct13
new_orders0
C91102 Entry
IndicatorswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-11 02:16
A news scan found the following analysis: The premises for C91102 were completed on September 10 with closes of 76535.875, 2436.8075, and 98.6025, which are above the Simple Moving Average of 50 and 200. The latest complete 01 UTC hour closes of 76948.7, 2453.1875, and 99.387 remain below the rolling 20-day high of 82233.5025, 2565.9, and 110.5357. The Average True Range, a measure of volatility, is 2283.57043, 88.01349, and 4.97507, which sets the volatility scale. The 10-day lows of 76222.3285, 2355.79, and 97.132857 mark a bear context without arbitrary tightening. Funding settled at percentiles of 70, 18, and 34, not 5% tails, with IBIT shares at -440000, which is modestly negative. The conclusion is that trend permission alone is insufficient for an entry, and the entry is frozen for each. A counterexample would be a sudden new breakout, which would change the signal but not remove execution validation. The validity of the entry requires an actual trigger, and the soundness is limited by feed aggregation and time coverage. A broad census of all 36 USD pairs shows no 20 close breakout. The ranking includes stable coins and USDG partial history. There are no existing holdings or exits to move. The source of this information is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history, and https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf.
BTC_hour_close76948.7
ETH_hour_close2453.19
SOL_hour_close99.39
BTC_high2082233.5
ETH_high202565.9
SOL_high20110.54
BTC_ATR142283.57
ETH_ATR1488.01
SOL_ATR144.98
current_signals0
allocation0
QTR9110200 Financing
ConsequenceswatchQuant replicationSWKS, QRVO, AXTI, SNDK, ASML, HSBC2026-09-11 02:16
A news scan found the headline about Skyworks Inc. financing. The company made two announcements: first, on September 1, it offered to buy back its notes at 90.55 to 93.36 percent, which expires on September 11 at 17 ET, subject to extension. This offer is not conditioned on the merger results. Second, on July 28, the company reported 935 million dollars in revenue, with 49 million dollars in GAAP operating income and 182 million dollars in adjusted income. The company also planned to take on 2 billion dollars in debt for an acquisition, stopped paying dividends, and authorized but did not make share buybacks. There are three steps in this financing chain: first, tender offers help the company get creditor consent and manage its debt; second, the company still faces risks from independent regulatory decisions and closing the deal; third, shareholders may still face financial and integration risks. This means that participating in the tender offer does not mean shareholders approve of the deal. The people who benefit from this deal are the company and its advisors, who get paid for their work, not because they proved they can make good investment choices. There are also three steps in the semiconductor chain: first, higher prices and more production capacity increase reported margins; second, customers buying in advance and new production capacity can absorb cash; third, normal pricing or buyer spending on new equipment could reverse the current momentum. Continuing to invest in artificial intelligence can lead to long-term gains, so this is not a signal to sell short. There are also three steps in the bank chain: first, high net interest income and fees increase return on tangible equity; second, credit losses and capital needs consume earnings; third, returns depend on interest rates and valuation. All these chains are based on conditional inference, not measured forecasts, and do not require additional books. The events and momentum fit the Quant model. The sources of this information are the Skyworks Inc. investor news releases and observations 23630-36 and fundamental 2425.
2029 tender pct90.55
2031 tender pct93.36
planned debt USDm2000
SWKS GAAP op USDm49
SWKS adjusted op USDm182
live exposure0
QTR9110200 Sector Ranks
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationXLE, XLK, XLI, BTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-11 02:16
The current sector ranks do not allow for a mid-month entry. On September 1, the top sector scores were XLE with 43.466%, XLK with 40.999%, and XLI with 25.185%. The respective prices were $64.93, $185.22, and $170.55, with ATR values of 201.140475, 3.0465, and 2.204745. Although XLI is below its 200-day Simple Moving Average, its long momentum is positive, which is not a contradiction due to different time horizons. The reference prices for a 2 ATR stop and 6 ATR target are $62.64905 and $71.77285 for XLE, $179.127 and $203.499 for XLK, and $166.14051 and $183.77847 for XLI, but these are not executable entry prices. The monthly frozen rule only applies to the first session, so there will be no new mid-month entry. If the fund were to be divided into three equal parts, each part would be $62.4067, but even one share of XLE at $64.93 would not fit into an individual sleeve, while the total fund of $187.22 could hold two shares of XLE or one share of XLK, but those are different portfolios. The 12-1 scores for BTC, ETH, and SOL are negative at 44.253%, 56.753%, and 65.970%, but the 90-day scores are positive at 20.465%, 46.371%, and 47.621%. There were no breakouts above $8223.35, $2565.9, and $110.5357 on September 10. Therefore, there will be no forced catch-up or crypto entry. The strongest counterargument is that long momentum can persist, but the current timing and whole-share implementation still need separate validation. The source of this data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, based on observations from 23916 to 23927 and frozen on 2124.
XLE momentum pct43.47
XLK momentum pct41
XLI momentum pct25.19
fund sleeve USD62.41
XLE reference stop62.65
XLE reference target71.77
current monthly entries0
crypto major breakouts0
QTR9110200 Census
StatisticalwatchQuant replicationAXTI, SNDK, WOLF, ASML, HSBC, BTC/USD2026-09-11 02:16
The automated trading fund manager made the following premises: they removed 13176 test issues from the current exchange roster and took a snapshot of 132 batches of historical data from September 8 to 10, which included 12704 symbols and 12128 current symbols, but excluded 384 preferred and warrant symbols and 88 other missing symbols, and also excluded 576 symbols with insufficient or stale data. The manager then filtered the data to only include symbols with a price of at least $5 and a daily dollar volume of at least $10 million, excluding ETFs, which left 2442 symbols. They completed all historical requests for these symbols and found that 2351 of them had at least 253 bars of data, but 91 symbols had insufficient data. The manager archived the rank, volume, and ADV metrics for these 2351 symbols, with 89 observations and seven significant digits, and retained the full precision CSV data. The top symbols by 12-1 momentum were AXTI with 2326.97%, SNDK with 1702.65%, and WOLF with 1556.04%, while the daily leaders were TNON with 117.21%, DBGI with 81.07%, and PCLA with 31.00%, which were not the same factor. The manager also looked at 20 overseas instruments in 9 markets, including 16 stocks and 4 indices, with local currency histories from September 9 or 10, but noted that this was not an exhaustive foreign listing census. The top stocks were ASML, HSBC, and MUFG, but there were gaps in the data due to cross-calendar, FX, dividend, and venue issues. The manager also looked at 25 crypto pairs, but found that all of them had negative 12-1 scores, and that PAXG and MKR had insufficient histories. Stablecoins were not considered to be risk momentum. The manager used an independent fixed sector family to avoid inflating historical stock test results. In conclusion, the manager achieved broad discovery with named coverage gaps, but found no stock-specific live edge. The sources used were the Nasdaq trader website, the Nasdaq listed and other listed text files, the runway Aditya Perswal workers dev data for stock and crypto bars, and the Yahoo finance chart query.
US roster13176
usable current12128
format excluded384
liquid discovery2442
momentum ranked2351
history insufficient91
foreign panel20
foreign markets9
crypto pairs25
crypto sufficient23
crypto positive scores0
NET911 Market Screen
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsHM-B.ST, KGF.L, ABVX.PA, 9983.T, 2678.T, ETH/USD, BB2026-09-11 02:16
A news scan found the headline 'NET911 eight overseas market screen and crypto mandate boundary'. A TradingView screen for earnings release dates between September 11 and October 16 returned 3057 listing rows from the UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, and Canada. The screen retrieved all 157 observation chunks, but these include duplicate companies due to cross-listings. The volume ranking is based on local shares and does not reflect cross-market liquidity ranking. The primary calendar includes H&M's nine-month report on September 24, KGF's half-year report on September 22, and Abivax's H1 report on September 21. Yahoo quotes show the following prices: H&M at 164.35 SEK, KGF at 288.4 GBp, ABVX at 100.3 EUR, Fast Retailing at 65600 JPY, ASKUL at 1197 JPY, and GSK at 1775.5 GBp. The chart's previous close is a 5-day reference and not guaranteed to be the prior close. The ETHACDC 186 summary from September 3 chooses Sepolia on October 6 and defers Hoodi, but this does not confirm the Ethereum mainnet date. The fund mandate does not include native crypto with no earnings or FDA events, and it rejects protocol-only rotation. The goal is a dated run-up with a binding constraint on net event edge and tradability, not geographic availability. Sources include TradingView and company websites.
listing_rows3057
markets8
UK369
Germany1773
France36
Sweden25
Japan578
Australia166
HongKong7
Canada103
allocation0
Fund Update
ConsequenceswatchCatalyst run-upsTBN, NEOV, CNXC, GSK2026-09-11 02:16
A news scan found the following information about several companies. For TBN, there are three points to consider: first, discounted interruptible gas during commissioning yields less cash than stated full contract capacity; second, buildout and working capital consume external funding; third, dilution or financing terms can offset production progress per share. Northern Territory buyers gain reliability and a discount, while suppliers gain buildout spend. The bull countercase is that ramping on time and taking or paying funds for the next phase will be beneficial. For NEOV, there are three points: first, signed cell procurement secures input but pack framework is not firm revenue; second, inventory and equipment cash must precede customer acceptance; third, further capital raising dilutes upside even if revenue ramps. SKOn benefits from cell off-take and customer option; actual paid packs would strengthen the equity case. For CNXC, there are three points: first, AI can increase client productivity; second, clients negotiate fees while transition costs weigh on margin; third, GAAP cash and debt paydown may trail adjusted EPS growth. The countercase is that larger contracts and automation margin repair will lead to real cash. For GSK and NUVL, there are three points: first, the acquisition was completed and early FDA approval removes the old binary; second, value flows into the large parent launch portfolio; third, the old NUVL date fails as an independent tradable signal. These are conditional chains, not predictions or new reported facts. Facts end at issuer-reported transactions and cash; future conversion and probabilities are unknown. There is no separate fund proposal because there is no validated new operation outside existing mandates. The sources of this information are https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/49/tamboran-delivers-first-gas-sales-from-the-beetaloo-basin, https://neovolta.com/blog/neovolta-announces-strategic-u-s-battery-cell-supply-and-bess-manufacturing-coll, https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx, and https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-releases/gsk-completes-acquisition-of-nuvalent-inc.
TBN_forecast_TJday40
NEOV_signed_GWh9
NEOV_framework_GWh9
CNXC_margin_contraction_bp220
allocation0
NEOG Momentum
BacktestsinconclusiveCatalyst run-upsNEOG2026-09-11 02:16
A computer command was used to test a trading strategy called momentum on stocks TBN, CNXC, INTG, NEOV, and NEOG. The test looked at 20 days of past data and used 730 days of stock prices to make decisions. It aimed to stop losses at 5% and target gains at 15%. The test used daily stock prices from IEX, a financial data source, up to September 10. This test did not validate the costs of buying or selling stocks and did not set aside a portion of the data to check the results independently. The results of this test are not a confirmed strategy. A separate test on stock TBN from days 2395 to 2402 was done to study the effects of the strategy, but it has limitations. No actual orders to buy or sell stocks were made. The data came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex and the test was run locally using a file called cli.json.
return3.39
drawdown32.49
win rate36.67
sample30
bars501
buy_hold_pct-22.96
avg_trade_pct0.37
allocation0
NEOV Momentum
BacktestsinconclusiveCatalyst run-upsNEOV2026-09-11 02:16
A command was run to test a trading strategy using momentum on the stocks TBN, CNXC, INTG, NEOV, and NEOG. The test looked back 20 days and ran for 730 days, with a stop loss of 5% and a target gain of 15%. The test used daily stock prices from IEX up to September 10. This test did not validate the results independently or consider the costs of executing trades. The results are for diagnostic purposes only and have not been adopted as a strategy. A positive result does not confirm the strategy works, and a negative result shows that momentum alone is not enough. A separate test on TBN from 2395 to 2402 will be used for further study, but it has limitations. No trades were made. The data came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex and the test was run locally using cli.json.
return-49.1
drawdown66.69
win rate21.13
sample71
bars501
buy_hold_pct-0.41
avg_trade_pct-0.65
allocation0
Momentum Diagnostic
BacktestsinconclusiveCatalyst run-upsINTG2026-09-11 02:16
A command was run using a node to test a momentum strategy on stocks TBN, CNXC, INTG, NEOV, and NEOG. The test looked back 20 days over 730 days, with a 5% stop loss and a 15% target gain. The test used daily bar data from IEX, current up to September 10. The results are diagnostic and do not validate the strategy's performance or costs. The test found that using momentum alone is not effective. A separate test on TBN from 2395 to 2402 days ago provided additional information, but has limitations. No orders were placed. The data came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex and the test was run locally using a file called cli.json.
return43.67
drawdown21
win rate34.78
sample23
bars501
buy_hold_pct116.57
avg_trade_pct1.86
allocation0
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