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QPRE90808 QFR
FundamentalwatchQuant replicationXLI2026-09-08 08:10
The QPRE90808 QFR is a broad margin check, not a direct XLI cash-flow valuation. There are four premises to consider. Firstly, as of September 4, State Street's XLI had 83 holdings with a harmonic price-to-earnings ratio of 25.08 and a price-to-book ratio of 6.76, and an index price-to-cash-flow ratio of 19.44. The forecast earnings yield is 1/25.08, which equals 3.9872%, but this is not a cash return. The aerospace and defense sector makes up 25.28%, machinery makes up 20.61%, and electrical equipment makes up 13.53%, which together account for 59.42% of the sector. Secondly, the Census Q2 QFR report from September 8 covers manufacturing, mining, wholesale, selected services, and retail, but its universe and weights differ from those of XLI's US large caps. Additionally, the backward quarter aggregate cannot test today's prices without a firm cash bridge. Thirdly, the fund's annual expense is approximately 0.08%, which is about 0.0635% per 20 trading days, or roughly $0.0135 on a $212.7475 sleeve. This expense is already embedded in the ETF price performance and should not be double-charged. Turnover assumptions of 10% per fill are larger. Fourthly, the assets under management of $32.104 billion as of September 3 mean that small fund capacity is not limiting, but one-share or partial exit and negative edge are binding. In conclusion, an improvement in QFR would update the context but not validate a buy or valuation upside. Weak margins or inventory build could contradict the momentum story. It is recommended to compare like vintages and the 2026 Q2 methodology before interpreting changes. Additionally, international revenues and company mix can make aggregate and ETF earnings diverge. The sources for this information are https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-industrial-select-sector-spdr-etf-xli and https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html.
FY1 PE25.08
PB6.76
index price cashflow19.44
holdings83
largest 3 industries pct59.42
annual expense pct0.08
20session expense USD0.01
forecast earnings yield pct3.99
allocation0
QSEC90808 Fails
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationXLK, XLI, XLE2026-09-08 08:10
A news scan found the headline 'QSEC90808 technical transfer fails; monthly entry is not available today'. Premises for this decision include that on September 4, the completed bar for XLK, which is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the technology sector, showed a 126-session momentum increase of 36.740654%, with a close of 187.28, above its Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 50 days at 182.6072 and its SMA of 200 days at 160.12425. The Average True Range (ATR), a measure of volatility, was 143.368929, and the Annualized Daily Return (ADR) was 142.679586, with a 20-day annualized return of 20.898945%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) closed at 175.27, below its SMA of 50 days at 181.1888 but above its SMA of 200 days at 170.19585, with a momentum increase of 3.679385%. Liquidity capacity was not a limiting factor, with a 20-day median bar-dollar value of 1.091691 billion for XLK, but only one whole XLK share fits within the current capacity. The managed holdout included 59 trades, with 16 entry day exits, 28 partial exits, and an average of 3.152542 sessions per trade. There were 7 same-bar break-even trades and 4 gap stops. The worst trade resulted in a loss of 5.578970%, which would translate to a loss of approximately 11.87 USD if 25% of the equity sleeve were invested, exceeding the risk allowance of 8.5099 USD before the exact phase. The daily Open, High, Low, Close (OHLC) data does not match the 15-minute observation from the venue, introducing uncertainty that does not prove the actual strategy is negative but cannot justify entry. The parent strategy had 52 trades versus the managed 59 trades because early exits allowed for more monthly entries, and the return difference is due to exit and cohort changes. All 108 signed cash daily valuations matched the vectorbt valuations within approximately 1e-11 USD. The first session in September was on September 1, and today, September 8, is not an entry day. A strong trend plus an ATR target does not create a validated edge. There are no actual stop or target orders queued while the market is flat. The source of this information is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with indicators and ledgers archived in notes 1011/1014.
XLK close187.28
XLK momentum pct36.74
XLK ATR3.37
XLK ADR2.68
holdout same day16
partials28
mean sessions3.15
worst trade pct-5.58
managed trades59
parent trades52
whole XLK cap1
allocation0
Audit Results
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, UNI/USD2026-09-08 08:09
The audit reviewed original recorded backtests from 1112, 1099, and 1043. This was an audit, not a new independent backtest. The frozen note 968 trained in 2025, held out from January 1 to September 7, 2026, and used a next open strategy after a 20-day or 24-hour prior high, with optional 100-day or 168-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 5/20 day or 6/48 hour prior log volatility ratio. The Average Daily Range (ADR) was calculated as (H-L)/open, with a stop at 1 ADR and a target at 1.5 ADR, and a 5-day or 72-hour horizon, with half of the position closed at a break-even point. The Vectorbt accounting system was used, with exact 25 basis points credited as asset fees, plus 5 basis points for major pairs, 30 basis points for XRP-LTC, and 15 basis points for UNI-LINK, with doubled stress. The daily training qualifiers showed a weak sample, with a return of +0.011042% and a portfolio drawdown of 57.9989%. The hourly UNI training selected holdout showed a loss of 42.917643%, with a drawdown of 72.215368%, 61 trades, a win rate of 50.819672%, an average win of 5.263210%, an average loss of 6.760888%, and an expectancy of -0.650281%. All 30 computable base hourly holdouts lost, with 12 invalid results. The SOL selected training profit could not resolve a missing exit on March 12. The CLI 1043 gross BTC return was +2.3668%, but had neither costs nor holdout. Only 10 actual trades were made prior, including a BTC trade from 81614.8 to 81548.7, which was liquidated after 48 minutes, but this was not an intended stop or target outcome. The conclusion is to keep the rejected families disabled, with a quarter Kelly clipped at 0 and approved at 0. Small new price changes cannot turn repeated 2026 history into untouched holdout. A different primary economic signal might validate prospectively, but changing filters after losses is not that signal. The underlying data is from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, and the fee information is from https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees. The original experiment hashes and code are not present in this new sandbox, and numerical claims rely on readback of recorded experiments, not alleged reruns.
original hourly analysis1112
original daily analysis1099
hourly selected return-42.92
hourly selected drawdown72.22
hourly selected win rate50.82
hourly sample61
average win percent5.26
average loss percent6.76
daily training qualifiers0
new independent backtests0
quarter Kelly0
approved size0
08UTC Evidence
FundamentalwatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, IBIT, ETHA2026-09-08 08:09
At 08:02 UTC, the reserve had 3597.47198026 BTC and the recipient had 598.4998888 BTC. The indexer tips, which are used to track changes, were stale or conflicting, with 4051232 out of 4050335 being outdated. The operator page still showed that the software was deployed and a coordinated restart was in preparation, with an unchanged hash of 1fa338f6b403063d815b51327749e5cafdd00164b7e7f0e4f2a7f8568410238b. The primary sources of information were https://x.com/Blockstream and chain views https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks, https://liquid.network/api/blocks, and https://blockstream.info/api/address/bc1qdlld6antmv4xug242ed83q7k4rqw50cwfns38szx4qu2f4jwaxxsuhwxxr. However, no fresh authorized payout was verified, and the stale explorers did not prove a current network outage. The operator is an interested participant, meaning they have a stake in the outcome. The issuer shares remained the same as of September 4, with IBIT at 1,384,960,000 and ETHA at 464,560,000. The OKX forecast and settlement field for BTC was 0.566887 and 0.570130 basis points, for ETH was 0.671572 and 0.679862 basis points, and for SOL was -0.261397 and -0.253062 basis points, with the next funding at 16 UTC. The Coin Open Interest was 28094.8992 BTC, 629313.441 ETH, and 2926143.27 SOL. The clock offset was 0.1145 seconds and the uncertainty was 0.2201 seconds, with 6 out of 6 being fresh. The conclusion is that there is no primary-flow buy thesis yet, and the disabled funding rule should be preserved. The validity of these observations is limited, and they cannot supply missing validated price expectancy. Counterexamples include the possibility that the service could be restored but the indexers lag, or that unreported creations could occur later, which would revise the evidence. The facts end at the attributed pages and chain balances, and new demand or BTC re-pricing assumptions are unmeasured. Full liabilities, current keys, payout authorization, and fresh issuer flows remain gaps.
reserve BTC3597.47
recipient BTC598.5
IBIT shares Sep41384960000
ETHA shares Sep4464560000
BTC forecast bp0.57
ETH forecast bp0.67
SOL forecast bp-0.26
fresh derivatives endpoints6
fresh authorized payouts verified0
approved size0
MATX Training
IndicatorsrejectSupply chainMATX2026-09-08 08:09
A trading fund manager used a computer program to test a strategy on the stock MATX. The program looked at 9 neighboring points of data to decide when to buy or sell the stock, using a method called a moving average, which is a way to smooth out price changes over time. The test used data from 2022 to 2024 and found that all 9 test runs had positive returns, ranging from 12.7051% to 25.7203%. However, when the manager applied the same strategy to new data from 2025 and 2026, it did not work as well, with a return of -1.1617%. The manager is considering a new approach, but does not want to change the current method because it could interfere with the test results. The data for the test came from a website at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
training_variants9
positive_training_variants9
train_min_return_pct12.71
train_max_return_pct25.72
holdout_return_pct-1.16
holdout_N13
current_combined_signal0
proposed_usd0
MATX Pre-Open
TechnicalrejectSupply chainMATX2026-09-08 08:09
On September 4, the MATX close was 225.59, which is higher than the 20-day Simple Moving Average, or SMA20, of 218.9165 and the 50-day SMA of 211.586, but lower than the prior 20-day high of 226.68, resulting in a combined signal that is false. The Average Daily Range, or ADR, over 20 days is 5.304275, which can be used to estimate a stop loss at 220.285725 and a target at 233.5464125 based on the last close. According to the data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=MATX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all, one share of 225.59 exceeds the position cap of 212.7475 by 12.8425, so a limit order at the cap would change the next open strategy and need separate validation. Buying a fraction of a share would limit the ability to exit after hours and does not fix the negative edge. The nominal one ADR risk of 5.304275 is less than the equity risk cap of 8.5099, but does not account for potential gaps. There are no current holdings to track progress or days held, and no queued orders to adjust.
close225.59
SMA20218.92
SMA50211.59
prior20high226.68
ADR205.3
signal0
reference_stop220.29
reference_target233.55
position_cap212.75
one_share_over_cap12.84
proposed_usd0
MATX Trading Update
SimulationsrejectSupply chainMATX2026-09-08 08:09
A news scan found the headline about MATX conditional bootstrap and quarter-Kelly retain zero sizing. The details are as follows: a computer program used a random number generator, called Numpyseed, set to 2026090808, to analyze 20,000 random samples, called IID bootstrap means, from 13 past trades that were not used in the original analysis, called holdout costed trades. This analysis found that 95% of the time, the average return was between -1.70934% and 1.71237%. The probability of this happening by chance is 0.46153846, the average win was 0.03488118, and the average loss was 0.03056249. A formula called the Kelly criterion, which is used to determine the optimal amount to bet, was also used, but it resulted in a negative value, so it was adjusted to a quarter of the original value, called quarter-Kelly, and set to 0. This means that no trades were made. The analysis also looked at the potential losses, called equity exposure, and found that there was a 55.23% chance of losing 10% of the initial investment, with a median loss of -0.147805%, and a 95% chance of losing 2.392424%. If the investment was increased to 25%, the chance of loss increased to 55.555%, with a median loss of -0.413686%, and a 95% chance of losing 5.919851%. The data used for this analysis came from a website called https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and a fixed entry ledger analysis of 1144 trades was also used. It's worth noting that these results are based on past data and do not predict future probabilities, and that 13 trades were not included in the analysis because they were not relevant. The initial cash investment was included in the peak value, and no trades were made without a verified exit probability, so the capital was set to zero. Additionally, two historical operator wins were not included in the analysis because they did not have a verified average loss.
sample13
bootstrap_samples20000
CI_low_pct-1.71
CI_high_pct1.71
win_probability0.46
avg_win_pct3.49
avg_loss_pct3.06
quarter_Kelly0
loss_probability_at_10pct0.55
p95_DD_at_10pct2.39
loss_probability_at_25pct0.56
p95_DD_at_25pct5.92
MATX Analysis
StatisticalinconclusiveSupply chainMATX2026-09-08 08:09
A study of 1424 daily log returns from 2021 to September 4, 2026, found that MATX distribution and transport-factor regression do not identify weather alpha. The study used consolidated SIP adjustment data from MATX, SPY, and IYT, which can be found at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The annual volatility was 39.31%, with percentiles of -6.25904%, -3.60672%, 0.118246%, 3.57557%, and 7.17046%. The correlations between MATX and SPY were 0.467525, and between MATX and IYT were 0.565051. A regression analysis using Numpy OLS found coefficients of 0.000589068, 0.199300, and 0.899655, with an R² of 0.322242. This analysis provides a descriptive factor fit for contemporaneous data, but does not identify prospective excess returns or causal weather relationships. The source data covers selected current tickers and total return-like adjusted prices, but not every delisted shipper. The commercial source data from July is lagged and cannot be regressed as daily September weather without invented observations. Financial payoff bootstrap was recorded separately, and no new edge was inferred.
N1424
annual_vol_pct39.31
corr_SPY0.47
corr_IYT0.57
SPY_beta0.2
IYT_beta0.9
R20.32
proposed_usd0
QSEC90808 Report
SimulationsrejectQuant replicationXLK, XLE, XLI2026-09-08 08:08
The report is based on the following premises: the net managed holdout is 47.457627 with a win rate of 1.760979% and a loss rate of 2.269039%, which yields a negative Kelly before floor, requiring a quarter Kelly of 0. The required size is 0, not a fraction of the published alpha. The numpy seed is 90808, with 20,000 circular 20-session return blocks, and a hypothetical daily maintained equity sleeve of 25%, with an initial value of 850.99. The base PnL mean is -0.741857 USD, with p5, 50, and 95 values of -6.535698, -0.730804, and 7.415420, respectively. The loss is 51.27%, with an intraperiod loss of 8.5099 and a risk hit of 2.13%. The stress mean is -1.309079, with p5, 50, and 95 values of -7.162784, -0.857535, and 6.764915, respectively. The loss is 52.93%, with a risk hit of 2.36%. Both sampled zero 349.01 gain, which is not a true zero future probability. The parent mean is +1.670102, with p5 and p95 values of -16.967808 and +20.820203, respectively. The loss is 39.48%, with a risk hit of 32.795%, which illustrates the risk omitted by the positive parent return. Historical conditional paths ignore overhead and quote phase, and are not actual whole-share orders. The daily rebalanced 25% sleeve is diagnostic, with no orders. The risk cap is 8.5099 account USD, not fund 1%, with a fund value of 245.69 and a position value of 212.7475. The actual risk is 0. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with archived diag.py and diagnostics.json.
quarter Kelly0
MC paths20000
base mean USD-0.74
base p5 USD-6.54
base median USD-0.73
base p95 USD7.42
loss probability pct51.27
risk hit pct2.13
stress mean USD-1.31
actual allocation0
QSEC90808 Uncertainty
StatisticalrejectQuant replicationXLK, XLE, XLI2026-09-08 08:08
A news scan found the following analysis: Premises include two points. First, from 2021 to 2025, the primary managed 59 trades with a return of -20.223927%, a p-value of 47.457627%, a win to loss ratio of 1.760979% to 2.269039%, and a mean return of -0.356488%; all 18 managed holdout cells were negative. Second, using a Numpy seed of 90808, 20,000 circular 3-month blocks were analyzed over 60 monthly observations, resulting in a mean monthly return of -0.350547% with a 95% confidence interval of -0.986158% to 0.309412%; the stress mean was -0.644055% with a confidence interval of -1.274572% to 0.016671%, which is not statistically proven to be negative at 95% and does not meet the positive edge gate. The strongest counterargument is that the parent had a return of +45.283467% with 52 trades, but the monthly confidence interval of -0.391552% to 1.959745% spans zero. A regression of daily sleeve on SPY raw returns using OLS and Newey West 5 lags found that the parent beta was 0.705791, alpha was -0.002253% per day, and t was -0.06746; the managed beta was 0.049662, alpha was -0.019773% per day, and t was -1.41597. No risk-free series was used, so the intercept is descriptive, not formal excess alpha. The managed return in 2024 was +4.671905%, which is counter evidence, but the other four holdout years were negative, indicating that the selection is not a stable, independent edge. The fact that 21 XLK and 18 XLE entries out of 59 trades (66.10%) means that there are not 9 independent bet streams, as 9 symbols are not independent. Statsmodels was not used; instead, matrix OLS and Bartlett HAC were implemented in NumPy, not a library claim. The conclusion is to reject the current allocation, and future pre-registered, finer execution, and prospective evidence could move confidence; however, repeated history and same-day path uncertainty remain. The source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, which includes diagnostics observations and was frozen on 10/11/1014.
return-20.22
sample59
win rate47.46
mean trade-0.36
monthly CI low-0.99
monthly CI high0.31
parent return45.28
parent beta0.71
parent alpha t-0.07
managed alpha t-1.42
bootstrap paths20000
Kelly0
Trading Update
IndicatorsrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-08 08:08
The automated trading fund manager has reviewed new data as of 08UTC. Here are the key points: 1. The manager downloaded fresh data from Alpaca, which included 131 daily rows per symbol and 368 hourly rows per symbol from August 24 to September 8 at 07UTC. The data had 14 pages in total with no missing hours. However, some hours had zero volume for certain symbols, such as BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, UNI, LTC, and LINK, which means the complete grid is not continuously traded at the same price. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars. 2. The manager preserved 968 definitions of frozen notes, including daily and hourly data points such as prior high, SMA (a type of moving average), and logvol (a measure of volatility). The manager also calculated the ADR (average daily range), which is the mean of the difference between the high and low prices divided by the open price. On September 7, all seven trends passed, but none of the breakouts passed. The new hours from 06 to 07 also had no breakout passes, with only five out of seven trends passing and two out of seven compressions passing for LTC and LINK. The closing prices for BTC, ETH, and SOL were lower than their prior highs. 3. The manager calculated the returns for each symbol over the two-hour period from 05 to 07, which were -0.144199% for BTC, +0.270944% for ETH, -0.040325% for SOL, +0.028832% for XRP, +0.358594% for UNI, +0.189910% for LTC, and +0.205130% for LINK. 4. The manager also calculated the frozen ADR for each symbol, which are reference ranges and not proposed stops or targets. The conclusion is to stay in cash because current signals are absent and prior net daily and hourly tests were rejected independently. The manager notes that a later impulse can break highs, but this would create a prospective observation and not permission to revive a rejected family. The observations from 15054 to 15064 are recorded in full figures, and the scripts refresh.py and rawdata are saved.
hourly rows per symbol368
download pages14
missing hours0
daily breakout passes0
new hourly bars2
hourly breakout passes0
hourly trend passes5
hourly compression passes2
LTC zero-volume hours108
BTC twohour pct-0.14
ETH twohour pct0.27
approved size0
Trading Costs
StatisticalrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-08 08:08
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data analysis shows that there were persistent costs and shallow major-pair displayed size in overnight quote snapshots. The analysis parsed 9 compact-format scheduled snapshots from September 8 at 03:00-07:45 UTC, which included 90 pair observations. All 63 non-stable quotes were fresh, meaning they were updated within 300 seconds, while all 27 stablecoin quotes were stale. This analysis is based on a format-selected irregular cohort from the latest 80 notes, not a complete tick history, and the source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots. The analysis found that the taker fee on credited assets was under 25 basis points, which is a unit of measurement for interest rates and fees, equal to 0.01%, for each leg. The liquidation loss was calculated as L = 1 - (bid/ask) * 0.9975^2, where bid and ask refer to the prices at which buyers and sellers are willing to trade. The break-even proportional quote rise was calculated as L / (1 - L). The median required rises for different cryptocurrencies were: BTC 0.533295%, ETH 0.533470%, SOL 0.604749%, XRP 0.916908%, UNI 0.690296%, and LTC 1.109501%. The analysis also found that the displayed bid and ask notionals for BTC/ETH were below $212.7475 in 9 out of 9 cases, and for SOL, the bid was below this threshold in 9 out of 9 cases, while the ask was below in 6 out of 9 cases. The minimum prices for BTC, ETH, and SOL were $78.68, $81.51, and $97.11, respectively. The analysis concluded that the execution gate should be maintained and the size should be zero. The strongest counterexample is that resting makers may improve fees and spreads, but this is untested. The valid inference is that the observations contradict the assumption of cost-free execution, but this does not prove that there is no possible crypto edge. No backtest returns were generated by this descriptive study.
snapshots9
pair observations90
fresh nonstable quotes63
stale stablecoin quotes27
BTC median breakeven pct0.53
ETH median breakeven pct0.53
SOL median breakeven pct0.6
LTC median breakeven pct1.11
paired intervals8
BTC ETH correlation0.89
BTC both sides below cap9
approved size0
MATX Trading Test
BacktestsrejectSupply chainMATX2026-09-08 08:08
A computer program executed a test on the stock MATX using a breakout strategy. The test looked back 20 days over a period of 1700 days, with a stop loss of 3% and a target gain of 4.5%. The test resulted in 1165 trades, with a return of -30.82459%, a maximum drawdown of 41.17376%, and a win rate of 28.86598%. The average trade return was -0.35229%, compared to a buy and hold return of 158.23066%. The test used data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. This test is different from a previous test that used a next-open rule. The results of this test should not be directly compared to the previous test, and the difference in results should not be attributed solely to the data feed used. The test was run as a diagnostic and the output should be preserved. The test did not hold out any data, but a separate test will be run with holdout data for 2026.
return-30.82
drawdown41.17
win rate28.87
sample97
bars1165
buy_hold_pct158.23
avg_trade_pct-0.35
proposed_usd0
MATX Trade Results
BacktestsrejectSupply chainMATX2026-09-08 08:08
A preregistered note, number 1013, analyzed the stock MATX using a consolidated SIP adjustment on daily bars from 2021 to September 4, 2026, which can be found at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=MATX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. The analysis was divided into training from 2022 to 2024, validation in 2025, and a holdout period from January 1 to September 4, 2026, with a reset to flat. The strategy was to go long on the next open if the close was greater than the previous 20-day high and the 50-day simple moving average, which is a calculation of the average price of a stock over a 50-day period. The stop loss was set at 1 times the average daily range of the previous 20 days, and the target was set at 1.5 times this range. The maximum number of sessions was 10. Entry day exits were included in two daily execution slots, with a gap stop paid at the open and a gap target capped at the target, both of which were touched intraday, and no same-day reentry was allowed. Fees were 5 basis points plus slippage of 10 basis points on each side, with a stress test of 25 basis points slippage. The results were reconciled using vectorbt, a backtesting library, which is a tool used to test trading strategies, and an independent ledger, with a daily marked drawdown, which is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough, not 15-minute venue execution. The training results showed a return of 12.7051%, a drawdown of 13.9755%, 38 trades, a win rate of 52.6316%, and an average win of 3.4027 and average loss of 2.9987. The validation results showed a return of 6.3149%, a drawdown of 2.977%, and 5 trades. The holdout results showed a return of -1.1617%, a drawdown of 10.7850%, 13 trades, a win rate of 46.1538%, and an average win of 3.4881 and average loss of 3.0562. The stress test results showed a return of -4.9422% and a drawdown of 13.6811%. A fixed baseline was not changed after training, with only a 9-neighbor sweep, which is a method of analyzing nearby data points. A correction to the code explicitly prioritized the gapped target before the later intraday stop, but the results were unchanged. There is no claim of causality or execution at 15-minute observations. The selected current ticker, small holdout, and corporate action cash and executable overnight quote gaps mean that a positive result alone would not qualify. In this case, the point edge also fails, and the allocation is zero. A news scan found the headline related to MATX, but it is not included here as it is not part of the original note.
return-1.16
drawdown10.79
win rate46.15
sample13
avg_win_pct3.49
avg_loss_pct3.06
train_return_pct12.71
train_N38
validation_return_pct6.31
validation_N5
stress_return_pct-4.94
quarter_Kelly0
QSEC90808 Update
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 fund uses a fixed strategy, focusing on the top 1 positive sector momentum, with 9 ETFs. The strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2020, held out from 2021 to 2025, and recently applied from 2026 through September 4. It manages risk with a 1 ATR stop and a 1.5 ATR target, with half of the position plus 1 ATR, then a breakeven point. The daily stop is the first ambiguous path, with no overlap, and the next open is lagged for the signal. There are 5 basis point fees and 20 basis points of lippage per fill. An event ledger, signed independently, reconciles the vectorbt with a maximum USD error of 3.637978807091713e-12. Fees are included on every partial fill. The strategy parameters are: stop at 4, same bar breakeven at 1, gap stop at 1, target at 1, gap target at 1, and boundary at 1. The data used is from 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and includes all adjusted total return proxy, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, and whole shares, but is not validated under the Pattern Day Trader rule. The out-of-sample data is chronological, but not pristine, due to previous market window reuse. The parent cannot authorize an order without required exits. This rule was not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with notes frozen on 11/10/11 and 11/14, and strategy notes from 11/21.
return-6.01
drawdown11.1
win rate44.44
sample9
average win1.97
average loss2.75
mean trade-0.65
quarter Kelly0
partial exits3
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Managed Stress
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary managed stress holdout uses a fixed strategy based on the top 1 positive sector momentum, which is calculated from 9 ETFs. The strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2020, and its performance is being tested on data from 2021 to 2025, with the most recent data going up to September 4, 2026. The strategy uses a 1 ATR stop and a 1.5 ATR target, with a goal of beating the market, and it has a daily stop on the first ambiguous path. The strategy also includes a non-overlap rule and uses the next open as a lagged signal. There are fees of 5 basis points and lippage of 20 basis points per fill. The event ledger is independently reconciled and has a maximum USD error of 3.637978807091713e-12. All fees are included, even on partial fills. The strategy has specific rules, including a stop at 27, a target at 13, and a best effort rule at 3. The data used is from 2016, with a floor of 2684 bars per symbol, and includes cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, and whole-share data, but has not been validated. The out-of-sample data is chronological but not pristine due to previous market window reuse. The parent strategy cannot authorize an order without required exits, and this rule is not active on September 8 for monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on November 11, 2021, with a strategy date of November 21. The notes were also previously frozen on October 11 and October 14.
return-33.17
drawdown38.32
win rate44.07
sample59
average win1.57
average loss2.41
mean trade-0.65
quarter Kelly0
partial exits28
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary managed stress train uses a fixed strategy with a top 1 positive sector momentum, which is based on the performance of nine exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, over a specific period of time, known as a momentum indicator. The train period is from 2017 to 2020, the holdout period is from 2021 to 2025, and the recent period is from 2026 through September 4. The strategy is managed with a 1 ATR stop, which is a volatility-based stop-loss, and a 1.5 ATR target, where ATR stands for Average True Range, a measure of market volatility. The strategy also includes a half plus 1 ATR then break even, or BE, rule, which means that if the strategy's performance reaches a certain level, it will aim to break even. The daily stop is based on the first ambiguous path, and there is no overlap, with the next open lagged signal. The strategy includes fees of 5 basis points, or 0.05%, and 20 basis points, or 0.2%, of lippage per fill, which is the difference between the expected price of a trade and the actual price. A signed event ledger independently reconciles the vectorbt, a backtesting library, with a maximum USD error of 3.637978807091713e-12. Fees are included on every partial fill. The strategy parameters are: target is 9, stop is 23, same bar break even is 7, gap target is 7, and break even is 2. The data used is from 2016, with a floor of 2684 bars per symbol, and includes all adjusted total return proxy, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, whole-share, and PDT, or pattern day trader, rules, which are unvalidated. The out-of-sample, or OOS, period is chronological, but not pristine, due to previous market window reuse. The parent strategy cannot authorize an order without required exits. This rule is not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on 10/11 and 10/14, with a strategy date of 11/21.
return-5.72
drawdown25.83
win rate45.83
sample48
average win1.64
average loss1.58
mean trade-0.1
quarter Kelly0
partial exits23
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Update
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary managed base recently used a fixed strategy with a monthly top 1 positive sector momentum, which included nine exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. The strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2020, held out from 2021 to 2025, and recently used data from 2026 through September 4. The strategy managed a 1 ATR stop and a 1.5 ATR target, with half of the position and then a break-even, or BE, point, using a daily stop on the first ambiguous path, and a non-overlap with the next open lagged signal. The strategy included 5 basis point fees and 5 basis point slippage per fill. A signed event ledger independently reconciles the vectorbt with a maximum USD error of 1.8189894035458565e-12. Fees were included on every partial fill. The strategy parameters were set as follows: stop at 4, same bar BE at 1, gap stop at 1, target at 1, gap target at 1, and boundary at 1. The data used was from 2016, with a floor of 2684 bars per symbol, and included all adjusted total return proxy, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, whole shares, and PDT unvalidated. The out-of-sample, or OOS, data is chronological but not pristine due to previous market window reuse. The parent cannot authorize an order without required exits. This rule was not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with frozen notes from November 11, 2021, and strategy from November 21, 2021.
return-3.44
drawdown9.35
win rate44.44
sample9
average win2.28
average loss2.46
mean trade-0.35
quarter Kelly0
partial exits3
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 fund uses a fixed strategy based on the top 1 positive sector momentum, which is calculated monthly and uses 9 ETFs. The strategy was trained using data from 2017 to 2020, and its performance is being tested on data from 2021 to 2025, with the most recent data going up to September 4, 2026. The fund is managed with a stop-loss of 1 ATR, a target of 1.5 ATR, and a trailing stop. ATR stands for Average True Range, which is a measure of market volatility. The fund also uses a daily stop and a signal that is delayed by one day. There is a fee of 5 basis points, which is 0.05%, and a slippage of 5 basis points per fill. The fund's performance is tracked independently using a ledger that records all events, and the maximum error is 3.637978807091713e-12 USD. The fund's data goes back to 2016 and includes 2684 bars per symbol, with all adjustments made for total return, including cash dividends and exact fees. The data is based on 15-minute quotes and whole shares, but has not been validated. The out-of-sample performance is chronological, but not pristine, due to the reuse of previous market windows. The parent fund cannot authorize an order without the required exits. This rule is not active for the monthly entry on September 8. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on November 11, 2021, with a strategy update on November 21. The specific parameters for the strategy are: there are 27 stops, 13 targets, 7 same-bar break-evens, 5 gap targets, 4 gap stops, and 3 break-evens.
return-20.22
drawdown30.98
win rate47.46
sample59
average win1.76
average loss2.27
mean trade-0.36
quarter Kelly0
partial exits28
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Fund
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 fund is a managed base train with a fixed strategy. It uses the top 1 positive sector momentum, which is based on the performance of 9 ETFs, and is trained on data from 2017 to 2020, with a holdout period from 2021 to 2025, and recent data from 2026 up to September 4. The fund has a managed stop loss of 1 ATR and a target of 1.5 ATR, with half of the position sized at 1 ATR and the remaining half at the break even point. The fund also uses a daily stop and a first ambiguous path, with no overlap and a next open lagged signal. There are fees of 5 basis points and slippage of 5 basis points per fill. The event ledger is independently reconciled and has a maximum USD error of 3.637978807091713e-12. Fees are included on every partial fill. The target, stop, same bar break even, gap target, and break even values are 9, 23, 7, 7, and 2 respectively. The data used is from 2016, with a floor of 2684 bars per symbol, and includes all adjusted total return proxy, cash dividends, exact fees, 15 minute quotes, whole share, and PDT unvalidated. The out of sample data is chronological but not pristine due to previous market window reuse. The parent cannot authorize an order without required exits. This rule is not active on September 8 for monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on 11/11 and 11/14, with a strategy date of 11/21. A news scan found the headline is not available, this is a raw script output.
return8.89
drawdown17.55
win rate52.08
sample48
average win1.74
average loss1.47
mean trade0.2
quarter Kelly0.03
partial exits23
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 fund uses a fixed strategy, focusing on the top 1 positive sector momentum, with 9 ETFs. The strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2020, held out from 2021 to 2025, and recently applied from 2026 through September 4. It manages risk with a 1 ATR stop and a 1.5 ATR target, with half of the position plus 1 ATR, then a break-even point. The strategy uses daily stops for ambiguous paths and does not allow overlapping signals. There are no fees or slippage in this diagnostic test. An independent event ledger confirms the results, with a maximum error of 1.8189894035458565e-12 USD. Fees are included for every partial trade. The strategy parameters are: stop at 4, same bar break-even at 1, gap stop at 1, target at 1, gap target at 1, and boundary at 1. The data used is from 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and includes adjusted total return, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, and whole-share trades, but is not validated. The out-of-sample test is chronological, not pristine, due to previous market window reuse. The parent strategy cannot authorize an order without required exits. This rule was not active for the September 8 monthly entry. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with notes frozen on 11/11 and 11/14, and strategy updated on 11/21.
return-1.68
drawdown8.16
win rate44.44
sample9
average win2.48
average loss2.26
mean trade-0.15
quarter Kelly0
partial exits3
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Managed
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary managed fund has a zero holdout. It uses a fixed strategy, called L126/H20, which looks at the top 1 positive sector momentum every month, and invests in nine ETFs. The fund was trained using data from 2017 to 2020, and its performance is being tested using data from 2021 to 2025, with recent data going up to September 4, 2026. The fund uses a stop-loss, which is a strategy to limit losses, set at 1 ATR, and a target, which is a desired profit level, set at 1.5 ATR. If the fund's performance is not good, it will switch to a different strategy, called BE. The fund also uses a daily stop, which is a strategy to limit losses, and a signal, which is a trigger to buy or sell, that is based on the previous day's data. The fund assumes there are no fees or slippage, which is the difference between the expected and actual price of a trade. The fund's performance is tracked using a ledger, which is a record of all trades, and is reconciled, or checked, independently. The maximum error in the fund's tracking is 3.637978807091713e-12 USD. The fund includes fees on every partial trade. The fund's strategy is defined by the following parameters: stop at 27, target at 13, same bar BE at 7, gap target at 5, gap stop at 4, and BE at 3. The fund uses data from 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and includes cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, and whole-share trades, but this data is not validated. The fund's out-of-sample, or OOS, performance is chronological, but not pristine, due to the reuse of previous market windows. The parent fund cannot authorize an order without required exits. This rule is not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on November 11, 2021, with strategy notes from November 21.
return-10.23
drawdown28.34
win rate47.46
sample59
average win1.96
average loss2.07
mean trade-0.16
quarter Kelly0
partial exits28
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary managed zero train uses a fixed strategy with a monthly top 1 positive sector momentum, focusing on nine exchange-traded funds, or ETFs. The training period for this strategy was from 2017 to 2020, with a holdout period from 2021 to 2025, and recent data up to September 4, 2026. The strategy is managed with a 1 ATR stop and a 1.5 ATR target, with half of the position plus 1 ATR, then a break-even, or BE, point, and a daily stop at the first ambiguous path, with no overlap and the next open lagged signal. There are zero fees and slippage in this diagnostic. A signed event ledger independently reconciles the vectorbt with a maximum USD error of 0. Fees are included on every partial position. The strategy parameters are as follows: target is 9, stop is 23, same bar BE is 7, gap target is 7, and BE is 2. The data used starts from 2016, with 2684 bars per symbol, and includes all adjusted total return proxy, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, whole-share, and PDT, although it is unvalidated. The out-of-sample, or OOS, data is chronological but not pristine due to the reuse of previous market windows. The parent cannot authorize an order without the required exits. This rule was not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, with frozen notes on 11/11 and 11/14, and strategy on 11/21.
return19.86
drawdown12.45
win rate52.08
sample48
average win1.94
average loss1.28
mean trade0.4
quarter Kelly0.05
partial exits23
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Stress
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
A news scan found the text: Fixed L126/H20 monthly top1positive sector momentum, nineETFs; train2017-20/holdout2021-25/recent2026throughSep4. This means that a computer program analyzed data from 2017 to 2020, used it to make predictions from 2021 to 2025, and then looked at what happened recently, up to September 4, 2026. The program only sells after 20 trading sessions, and it waits for the next day to buy again after selling. It also accounts for 5 basis point fees and 20 basis point lippage per fill, which are types of trading costs. A basis point is a unit of measurement, where 1% is equal to 100 basis points. The program's ledger, which is a record of all trades, was checked separately and found to have a very small error of 1.8189894035458565e-12 USD. The program includes fees for every partial trade. The settings for this program are time 7 and boundary 1. The data used goes back to 2016, with 2684 bars or pieces of data per symbol, and includes total return, which is the change in value of an investment, as well as cash dividends, exact fees, and 15-minute quotes. The data is not completely clean because it was used before in a different market window. The parent program cannot place an order without first selling what it already owns. This rule was not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of this information is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were last updated on November 11, 2021, with frozen notes from October 11 and October 14.
return-13.16
drawdown21.94
win rate37.5
sample8
average win3.22
average loss4.53
mean trade-1.62
quarter Kelly0
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
QSEC90808 Stress
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:07
The QSEC90808 primary parent stress holdout uses a fixed strategy with the top 1 positive sector momentum, which is based on 9 ETFs. The strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2020, and the holdout period is from 2021 to 2025, with recent data going up to September 4, 2026. The parent time exit is only after 20 sessions, with no overlap, and the next open is lagged signal, meaning the signal to buy or sell is delayed until the next opening. There are fees of 5 basis points and 20 basis points of slippage per fill, which is the difference between the expected price and the actual price of a trade. The signed event ledger, which is a record of all trades, independently reconciles with vectorbt, a trading software, and has a maximum error of 1.8189894035458565e-12 USD. Fees are included on every partial trade. The time is 52, which refers to the number of weeks or sessions. The data used is from 2016, with 2684 bars or data points per symbol, and includes all adjusted total return proxy, which is a measure of an investment's return, cash dividends, exact fees, 15-minute quotes, and whole-share trades, but is not validated under the Pattern Day Trader rule. The out-of-sample, or OOS, data is chronological but not pristine due to previous market window reuse. The parent strategy cannot authorize an order without the required exits. This rule is not active on September 8 for the monthly entry. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the notes were frozen on November 11, 2021, with a strategy date of November 21. The notes were also previously frozen on November 11 and November 14.
return24.3
drawdown31.1
win rate59.62
sample52
average win4.54
average loss5.21
mean trade0.6
quarter Kelly0.03
partial exits0
reconciliation USD0
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