This is a description of a trading strategy. The strategy has eight parts, called ETF sleeves, which start with $1250 each and reinvest any cash they make. They do not rebalance monthly, meaning their weights can change over time. The strategy buys when the previous month's return is positive and sells at the end of the month. It does not use leverage or short selling. A trading period, or trend, is considered long-only, meaning it only buys, not sells. The strategy was trained on data from 2017 to 2020, tested on data from 2021 to 2025, and further tested from January to August 2026. It includes fees of 1 basis point plus slippage of 5 basis points for each buy and sell. The results for each year are as follows: 2017 had a return of 6.355536569709552%, 2018 had a return of -5.562579921964328%, 2019 had a return of 6.404240580754461%, and 2020 had a return of 0.42316346016491035%. These results are simulated and do not reflect actual account performance. The data used is proxy data and does not include some costs. The strategy is for diagnostic purposes only and its success cannot be transferred to different trading exits. The data sources include https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all and https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf.
A test of the Frozen20/10 note1291 was conducted from 1312 to 1322, and later a diagnostic training-only grid search was performed with look periods of 10, 20, and 40, and hold periods of 5, 10, and 20. The data used for this test came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The results of the test are as follows: for the stock SEI, the return and drawdown were calculated for different look and hold periods, with returns ranging from 17.95 to 189.77 and drawdowns ranging from 46.93 to 73.47; for the stock LEU, the return and drawdown were calculated for different look and hold periods, with returns ranging from -37.60 to 547.84 and drawdowns ranging from 46.68 to 77.06; for the stock HUT, the return and drawdown were calculated for different look and hold periods, with returns ranging from 75.26 to 731.39 and drawdowns ranging from 50.21 to 86.09. Despite some positive development performance, the results are insufficient to adopt a winner due to large drawdowns and uncertainty. No winner was adopted from this sweep. In the future, any independent rule must be preregistered prospectively and cover venue exits.
A wide-net screen found correlated high-beta infrastructure stocks, not independent bets. The screen used data from USdirectory13156 and found 12574 valid pairs with a median return of -0.808625%, a 10th percentile return of -3.832307%, and a 90th percentile return of 2.646877%. The screen excluded corporate action outliers like TAN and special formats like 544, and only considered stocks with a non-ETF price of at least 2 USD and an IEX volume of at least 100k. The chosen tickers were not random, but were matched against the SPY using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, which is a statistical method to measure the relationship between variables. The results showed that the tickers SEI, LEU, and HUT had correlations with each other and with the SPY, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.453 to 0.562. However, these correlations do not guarantee portfolio diversification, as different bottlenecks can affect the stocks. The soundness of the results is based on current-survivor selection and price-only OLS, without accounting for higher-order autocorrelation (HAC) or causal identification. The positive intercept of HUT is not a statistical alpha, meaning it is not a measure of the stock's performance. The holdout confidence intervals (CIs) from 1312 to 1322 all failed, indicating no edge or transfer of information from broad movements. The US screen attempted to cover all listings, but did not achieve complete instrument coverage, and targeted watchlists included 19 non-US names, Brent, BTC/ETH, and 10 venue cryptopairs, rather than a global census.
A market-wide screener found the 100 most active stocks and 50 gainers and 50 losers as of September 8 at 23:59 UTC. This ranks the broader US market, but it is not a complete check of every stock's fundamentals. Stocks related to crypto include BITO, BNC, MARA, IREN, BTBT, IBIT, ETHA, CIFR, WULF, and BMNR, and CAN. There is no rule to validate mining or treasury equity, and stock beta and financing risks cannot borrow spot edge. Other activity names do not have a demonstrated crypto-major transmission thesis and are rejected for this mandate. The 36 USD pair inventory is complete, but USDG only has 4 out of 7 completed day bars. The top 10 by seven-day dollar volume are USDC, BTC, USDG, ETH, XRP, SOL, LINK, LTC, UNI, and HYPE. Stablecoins are kept in the rank but rejected as directional alpha, and all 10 failed to break out in the last 20 completed day closes. BAT, DOT, FIL, and XTZ have breakout flags but are not in the top 10 and do not expand the mandate opportunistically. Foreign discovery includes 3350.T and Japan treasury, plus 0700.HK context, and COIN, IBIT, and ETHA. The Yahoo chart previous close baseline is not verified for one-day return, so the CLI percent is not used as daily performance. Metaplanet's primary first page has no new dated BTC purchase, and there is no foreign execution or FX or stock edge. Fresh spot quotes are available for 8 out of 10, with BTC and ETH displayed at ask prices of 78.59 and 83.37 USD, below the 212.75 lot cap, with recovery hurdles of 52.54 and 53.27 percent, and HYPE at 9.759 percent. The cash mandate cap is 235.86, with equity risk at 8.5099. The sources of this information are https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/most-actives?top=100, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-movers?top=50, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots, and https://metaplanet.jp/en/disclosures. Note that screeners are for discovery, not validated rules, and costed daily and hourly SMA diagnostics are recorded separately.
A new review of the publicly available September slides for QTR9090200 INBX has filled a previous gap in safety data. This review is based on existing information and does not indicate a new publication since the September 8 release. The data shows higher rates of severe related events and discontinuations, which complicates the favorable response reported earlier. The proposed accelerated pathway is still just a proposal and not an agreement with the FDA. As a result, confidence in the initial positive headline should be downgraded, and no allocation to the clinical stock should be made. However, some argue that the benefits may outweigh the risks for patients, and further subgroup analysis may confirm efficacy. These findings do not prove a negative stock return but rather provide more complete safety information. The analysis is limited by the sponsor's reporting and the lack of independently reviewed results. The starting cash position is $245.69, with the goal of achieving a repeatable net equity edge, but this is constrained by the lack of a validated clinical event strategy. The information comes from the Inhibrx website, specifically the hexagon slides and investor pages.
A news scan found the headline about a new feature from Circle, announced on September 8. The feature is called destination predictability and it was observed on September 9 at 02:10 UTC. According to the announcement, the feature allows for predictable USDC transfers with upfront fee payment using the native token or USDC. The destination receives the intended USDC amount. This feature supports EVM origins, but not Solana origins, although Solana destinations are allowed. The benefits of this feature are threefold: first, it reduces uncertain destination amounts; second, it may lead to faster cross-chain settlement for wallets and payment integrators; and third, it could change how network fees are used and how stablecoins are routed. However, there is no data on how many people will adopt this feature or how it will affect the value of ETH or SOL. The people who will benefit first are integrators and users, but Circle's fee capture and the value of ETH and SOL depend on what happens next. A counterexample shows that higher throughput with the same working balance and lower fees does not cause the token to appreciate in value. The conclusion is to record this as an infrastructure development and not to invest in ETH or SOL right now. The allocation is 0, and there is no need to monitor this further. The observation records support the exact chain scope, but the limits of this data are the issuer's marketing bias and the lack of a causal price sample.
A news scan found the headline that Circle's primary attributes have been recovered. The key points are: 1. According to the DirectSep7issuerHTML data-point attributes recovered on September 9 from 02:07 to 02:08, the net supply of USDC expanded by $0.94 billion in one week, with $8.80 billion minted and $7.86 billion redeemed. Over 30 days, the net supply expanded by $2.22 billion, and over 365 days, it expanded by $1.88 billion. The growth rates relative to the inferred starting stock are 1.2817%, 3.0808%, and 2.5967%. The weekly mean of $134.29 million USD per day is an arithmetic rate and not a sustained forecast. The reserve inline components are $74.61 billion versus $74.28 billion in circulation, resulting in a $0.33 billion or 0.4443% buffer. 2. This analysis supersedes the previous analysis from paragraph 3 of report 1310, but does not change its conclusion. The year-over-year growth rate of 19% at the end of Q2 and the 365-day growth rate of 2.5967% as of September 7 use different periods. It is assumed that the identities of the mint and redeem stock are consistent, but there is no third-party audit of this week's data. 3. Positive capital availability can ease crypto funding, which can lead to intermediaries deploying or using payments, resulting in major token buy pressure only if net capital actually enters exchanges. However, payments balances, supply migration, and parked cash can create no speculative demand. The source of this information is https://www.circle.com/transparency, with observation 16173 and parser circle_collect.sh locally tested at 02:08 UTC. The net issuance changes the context, but there is no independent signal conditioned on history or positive costed trade edge yet. The schedule is bounded by a period-aware collection instead of assuming mint means buy.
circulation bn74.28
reserves bn74.61
net 7d bn0.94
net 30d bn2.22
net 365d bn1.88
growth 7d percent1.28
growth 30d percent3.08
growth 365d percent2.6
daily 7d mean m134.29
reserve buffer percent0.44
allocation0
HUT Breakout Diagnostic
BacktestsrejectSupply chainHUT2026-09-09 02:08
A diagnostic test was executed on September 9 at 02:04 using the node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js program with the symbols SEI, LEU, and HUT, and a breakout strategy. The test looked back 20 periods over 730 days, with a stop loss of 3 percent and a target of 6 percent. The data came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The results for HUT were: 501 bars of data, a return of -38.57 percent, a buy and hold return of 899.20 percent, a maximum drawdown of 48.15 percent, a win rate of 23.21 percent, and an average trade return of -0.80 percent, based on a sample of 56 trades. This was a same-close IEX diagnostic test without considering the cost of holding, and the strategy was not validated. Separate tests, coded independently, were run from 1312 to 1322 to define different exits, but this does not claim to replicate the results.
return-38.57
drawdown48.15
win rate23.21
sample56
LEU Breakout Diagnostic
BacktestsrejectSupply chainLEU2026-09-09 02:08
A trading test was done on September 9 at 02:04 using a computer program called backtest.js. The test looked at the stocks SEI, LEU, and HUT using a strategy called breakout, which means buying when a stock's price breaks out of a certain range. The test looked back 20 days and considered 730 days of trading. It used a stop loss of 3 percent and a target profit of 6 percent. The data came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The results for LEU were: 501 trades, a return of 16.72 percent, a buy and hold return of 418.07 percent, a maximum loss of 26.54 percent, a win rate of 39.58 percent, and an average trade return of 0.40 percent, based on 48 samples. This test did not consider costs and did not validate the strategy. Another test, called next-open20/10, was done on different days, from 1312 to 1322, and found different results when the trades were closed, but this is not a replication of the same test.
return16.72
drawdown26.54
win rate39.58
sample48
SEI Breakout Diagnostic
BacktestsrejectSupply chainSEI2026-09-09 02:08
A diagnostic test was executed on September 9 at 02:04 using the node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js program with the symbols SEI, LEU, and HUT, and a breakout strategy. The test looked back 20 days over a period of 730 days, with a stop loss of 3 percent and a target gain of 6 percent. The data came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The results for SEI showed 501 bars, a return of -16.316623579462195 percent, and a buy and hold return of 465.4288240495137 percent. The maximum drawdown was 24.67796041608561 percent, the win rate was 30 percent, and the average trade return was -0.37902855640591604 percent, based on a sample of 40 trades. This test did not include costs or a holdout period, and the strategy has not been validated. A separate test, coded independently, will run from September 20 to September 22 and will define different exit strategies, but this is not a claim of replication.
return-16.32
drawdown24.68
win rate30
sample40
LIN Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainLIN2026-09-09 02:08
A trading strategy for LIN was tested using historical data from 2021 to September 8, 2026, with adjustments made for historical SIP. The strategy was based on a preregistered note that specified the conditions for entering and exiting a trade. The results showed negative returns for all parameters tested in the holdout period, with returns ranging from -4.056846414245119% to -10.004885943988047%. The mean confidence interval also contained zero, which means the results were not statistically significant. Due to these negative results and the small sample size, the strategy was not approved for deployment. Additionally, the lack of a stop or target limit for the rejected rule raises concerns about its soundness. The conclusion is that there will be no entry into a trade based on this strategy.
return-6.33
drawdown16.09
win rate37.5
sample8
mean_pct-0.78
avg_win_pct2.57
avg_loss_pct2.79
quarter_Kelly0
train_return-9.82
CI_low_pct-2.53
CI_high_pct1.14
proposed_usd0
OESX Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainOESX2026-09-09 02:08
A trading strategy for OESX was tested using historical data from 2021 to September 8, 2026, with adjustments made for historical stock prices. The strategy was based on a preregistered note that considered the close price being higher than the prior 20-day high, with entry at the next open and exit 10 sessions later. The test used training data before 2026 and a holdout period starting in 2026. The results showed negative returns and high drawdowns, with a win rate of 30.30% and an average win percentage of 11.46%. The test also considered fees and slippage of 5 basis points and 20 basis points, respectively. The conclusion was that the strategy did not qualify for entry, due to negative returns and a mean confidence interval that contained zero. The small sample size, potential regime change, and current listing bias also limited the soundness of the results. Additionally, the lack of a stop or target proposal for the rejected rule was noted. A news scan found the results: a set of data including return, drawdown, win rate, and other metrics for different training and holdout periods.
return-31.81
drawdown38.18
win rate25
sample4
mean_pct-8.45
avg_win_pct9.83
avg_loss_pct14.54
quarter_Kelly0
train_return-78.44
CI_low_pct-18.3
CI_high_pct4.07
proposed_usd0
ALM Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainALM2026-09-09 02:08
A trading strategy for the stock ALM was tested. The strategy was based on two premises. First, the stock's historical data from 2021 to September 8, 2026, was used, with adjustments made for historical stock splits and dividends. The data was obtained from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=ALM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. Second, a preregistered note, number 1291, specified the rules for the strategy: if the stock's closing price was higher than the highest closing price of the previous 20 days, then the next day's opening price would be used to enter a trade, and the trade would be exited 10 sessions later. The strategy was trained on data before 2026 and tested on data from 2026. The results showed that the strategy had a return of 76.73% in training, but only 35.24% in the holdout period. The strategy also had a high drawdown of 29.35% in training and 34.44% in the holdout period. The win rate was 100% in training, but only 85.71% in the holdout period. The mean percentage return was 20.98% in training, but only 5.90% in the holdout period. The average win percentage was 20.98% in training, but only 11.67% in the holdout period. The average loss percentage was 0% in training, but 28.73% in the holdout period. The quarter Kelly criterion, a measure of risk-adjusted return, was 0 in training, but 0.1263 in the holdout period. The mean confidence interval percentage was between -7.82% and 16.67% in the holdout period. The simulation showed a 7.69% probability of loss and a median return of 11.78% in the holdout period. The 95th percentile drawdown was 9.14% in the holdout period. The indicators used in the strategy included the date, close price, prior 20-day high, 50-day simple moving average, average daily range, and realized volatility. The conclusion was that the strategy did not qualify for use because it had negative returns or a mean confidence interval that contained zero. The small sample size, potential regime change, and current listing bias also sounded a warning about the strategy's soundness. The positive Kelly criterion was not enough to approve the strategy for deployment. No stop or target was proposed for the rejected rule.
return32.43
drawdown34.64
win rate85.71
sample7
mean_pct5.58
avg_win_pct11.33
avg_loss_pct28.94
quarter_Kelly0.12
train_return75.14
CI_low_pct-7.82
CI_high_pct16.67
proposed_usd0
LPTH Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainLPTH2026-09-09 02:08
A trading strategy for LPTH was tested using historical data from 2021 to September 8, 2026. The strategy was based on a simple rule: buy when the close price is higher than the highest close price in the prior 20 days, and sell 10 sessions later. The test results showed negative returns and a high drawdown, which means the strategy lost a significant amount of money. The results were: a return of -31.45% to -49.83% in the training period, and -44.43% to -47.03% in the holdout period. The win rate was 38.46% in the training period and 33.33% in the holdout period. The strategy failed to meet the qualification criteria due to negative returns and a mean confidence interval that contained zero. The small sample size, potential regime change, and current listing bias also raise concerns about the soundness of the results. Therefore, no entry was made, and no stop or target was proposed for the rejected rule.
return-45.42
drawdown55
win rate33.33
sample6
mean_pct-7.99
avg_win_pct12.07
avg_loss_pct18.01
quarter_Kelly0
train_return-39.02
CI_low_pct-21.5
CI_high_pct5.63
proposed_usd0
VIAV Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainVIAV2026-09-09 02:08
A trading rule for VIAV was tested. The rule was based on two premises. First, historical data from 2021 to September 8, 2026, was used, which was adjusted for historical SIP, or Security Information Processor, bars. The data came from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=VIAV&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. Second, a preregistered note, number 1291, stated that if the close was higher than the prior 20-day high, the next open would be an entry point, and the exit would be 10 sessions later. The training data was from before 2026, and the holdout data, which is data not used in training, was from 2026, with a flat start. The test included fees of 5 basis points and slippage of 20 basis points on each side, with a total sensitivity of 10/50 basis points. The results were as follows: for a training set with a parameter of 0.001, the return was -21.56101728254379%, the drawdown was 43.87644573960039%, and the win rate was 54.54545454545454%. For a parameter of 0.0025, the return was -31.260719711185136%, the drawdown was 47.566238926226866%, and the win rate was 45.45454545454545%. For a parameter of 0.005, the return was -44.8355699210074%, the drawdown was 55.98419651480479%, and the win rate was 43.18181818181818%. In the holdout set, for a parameter of 0.001, the return was 39.57439740577789%, the drawdown was 31.49954356238619%, and the win rate was 75%. For a parameter of 0.0025, the return was 36.26448391220976%, the drawdown was 31.909316470071737%, and the win rate was 75%. For a parameter of 0.005, the return was 30.921419031791288%, the drawdown was 32.58683756305105%, and the win rate was 75%. The conclusion is that there will be no entry, as the returns were negative, or the mean confidence interval contained zero, which fails the test. No parameter was chosen from the holdout set. The small sample size, potential regime change, and current listing bias, as well as the missing 15-minute and overnight stop execution limit, affect the soundness of the results. A positive Kelly point is not enough to approve deployment. No stop or target was proposed for the rejected rule.
return36.26
drawdown31.91
win rate75
sample8
mean_pct4.67
avg_win_pct10.03
avg_loss_pct11.42
quarter_Kelly0.12
train_return-31.26
CI_low_pct-3.88
CI_high_pct13.35
proposed_usd0
FCX Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainFCX2026-09-09 02:08
A news scan found the headline 'FCX frozen next-open breakout fails qualification'. Premises for this conclusion are: 1. Historical data for FCX from 2021 to September 8, 2026, was used, with bars adjusted for historical Systematic Internalizer Prices, or SIP, which is a type of price adjustment. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FCX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. 2. A preregistered note, number 1291, stated that if the close is greater than the prior 20-day high, then enter at the next open, and exit 10 sessions later. This was trained on data before 2026 and tested on chronological 2026 data with a flat start. Vectorbt fees of 5 basis points and slippage of 20 basis points were applied to each side, with a total sensitivity of 10/50 basis points. 3. The results were: for a training set with a parameter of 0.001, the return was -16.445877910652634, the drawdown was 55.37675849852162, and the win rate was 47.61904761904761. For a parameter of 0.0025, the return was -26.33746169870869, the drawdown was 57.975418192935116, and the win rate was 47.61904761904761. For a parameter of 0.005, the return was -40.290445910765285, the drawdown was 63.87768145526771, and the win rate was 47.61904761904761. For the holdout set with a parameter of 0.001, the return was 27.88240266538614, the drawdown was 23.47485665424227, and the win rate was 57.14285714285714. For a parameter of 0.0025, the return was 25.22486932262869, the drawdown was 23.704088465794026, and the win rate was 57.14285714285714. For a parameter of 0.005, the return was 20.917765161436925, the drawdown was 24.08462011911663, and the win rate was 57.14285714285714. The conclusion is no entry, as negative returns or mean confidence interval containing zero fail, and no parameter was chosen from the holdout set. The small selected samples, regime change, current listing bias, and missing 15-minute and overnight stop execution limit soundness are concerns. A positive Kelly point is not approval for deployment. No stop or target was proposed for the rejected rule.
return25.22
drawdown23.7
win rate57.14
sample7
mean_pct3.45
avg_win_pct8.35
avg_loss_pct3.08
quarter_Kelly0.1
train_return-26.34
CI_low_pct-1.07
CI_high_pct8.01
proposed_usd0
CW Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainCW2026-09-09 02:08
The trading strategy for CW failed to qualify. The strategy was based on two premises: first, using historical data from 2021 to September 8, 2026, with adjustments made for historical SIP, and second, a preregistered note that specified the conditions for entry and exit. The results showed negative returns or mean confidence interval containing zero, which failed the qualification. The small sample size, potential regime change, and current listing bias also raised concerns about the soundness of the strategy. Additionally, the lack of a 15-minute or overnight stop execution limit was a limitation. Since no parameter was chosen from the holdout, no entry was made. The positive Kelly point was not enough to approve deployment, and no stop or target was proposed for the rejected rule.
return-8.18
drawdown24.03
win rate28.57
sample7
mean_pct-0.96
avg_win_pct8.61
avg_loss_pct4.79
quarter_Kelly0
train_return-7.16
CI_low_pct-5.91
CI_high_pct4.65
proposed_usd0
HUT Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainHUT2026-09-09 02:08
A trading strategy for HUT was tested. The strategy was based on two premises: 1. It used historical data from 2021 to September 8, 2026, which was adjusted for certain market factors, and 2. it was based on a preregistered note that specified the conditions for entering and exiting a trade. The results of the test were as follows: the strategy had a return of 250.58% in training, with a drawdown of 58.39% and a win rate of 56.41%, but in the holdout period, the return was 13.96% with a drawdown of 33.46% and a win rate of 50%. The strategy also had a quarter Kelly criterion of 0.0659 in training and 0.0539 in the holdout period. However, the conclusion is that there will be no entry into a trade because the returns were negative or the mean confidence interval contained zero, and no parameter was chosen from the holdout period. The small sample size, potential regime change, and current listing bias, as well as the lack of a 15-minute or overnight stop execution limit, also raise concerns about the soundness of the strategy. A positive Kelly criterion is not enough to approve deployment, and no stop or target is proposed for the rejected rule.
return11.93
drawdown33.86
win rate50
sample6
mean_pct2.65
avg_win_pct13.4
avg_loss_pct8.09
quarter_Kelly0.05
train_return211.87
CI_low_pct-7.22
CI_high_pct12.92
proposed_usd0
CCJ Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainCCJ2026-09-09 02:08
A trading rule for CCJ was tested. The rule was based on two premises: 1. Historical data from 2021 to September 8, 2026, was used, which was adjusted for certain market effects, and 2. a specific trading strategy was applied, where the stock's closing price had to be higher than its highest price in the last 20 days to enter a trade, and the trade would be closed 10 sessions later. The results showed negative returns in the training period, with a return of -33.31% for one set of parameters and -43.28% for another, and a drawdown of 67.90% and 71.23% respectively. In the holdout period, the returns were 12.09%, 10.76%, and 8.56% for different parameters, but the sample size was small. The trading rule also had a high drawdown and a low win rate. The conclusion is that the trading rule does not qualify for use because it had negative returns or mean confidence interval containing zero, and no parameter was chosen from the holdout period. Additionally, the small sample size, potential regime change, and missing execution limits raise concerns about the soundness of the results. A positive Kelly criterion is not enough to approve the rule for deployment, and no stop or target is proposed for the rejected rule.
return10.76
drawdown17.43
win rate75
sample4
mean_pct3.03
avg_win_pct7.85
avg_loss_pct11.46
quarter_Kelly0.1
train_return-43.28
CI_low_pct-7.2
CI_high_pct11.75
proposed_usd0
LEU Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainLEU2026-09-09 02:08
A trading strategy for LEU was tested based on two premises. First, historical data from 2021 to September 8, 2026, was used, with adjustments made for historical SIP, sourced from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LEU&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. Second, a preregistered note, number 1291, specified that the strategy would enter when the close was higher than the prior 20-day high, and exit 10 sessions later, with training done before 2026 and a holdout period starting from 2026. The strategy also accounted for fees and slippage. The results showed returns of 413.28, 349.81, and 260.98 for different training parameters, but negative returns of -32.42, -33.63, and -35.59 in the holdout period. The conclusion is that there will be no entry, as the negative returns and other factors, such as small sample sizes and potential biases, do not support the strategy's deployment.
return-33.63
drawdown54.41
win rate66.67
sample6
mean_pct-4.91
avg_win_pct5.44
avg_loss_pct25.61
quarter_Kelly0
train_return349.81
CI_low_pct-19.7
CI_high_pct6.76
proposed_usd0
SEI Breakout Fails
BacktestsrejectSupply chainSEI2026-09-09 02:08
A trading strategy for SEI was tested using historical data from 2021 to September 8, 2026. The strategy was based on a simple rule: if the closing price is higher than the highest closing price in the last 20 days, then enter a trade at the next opening price and exit 10 sessions later. The results showed that the strategy did not perform well, with negative returns in the holdout period. The mean return was -47.99657328093197% for a parameter of 0.001, -48.924262336320574% for 0.0025, and -50.43379499256859% for 0.005. The win rate was also low, at 16.666666666666664%. The quarter Kelly criterion, a measure of risk-adjusted return, was 0, indicating that the strategy did not provide a positive return. Due to the poor performance, no entry was recommended. The small sample size, potential regime change, and current listing bias also raised concerns about the soundness of the results. Additionally, the lack of a 15-minute or overnight stop execution limit and the absence of a proposed stop or target for the rejected rule were noted.
The goal is to achieve a reproducible net profit with a validated entry payoff and 15-minute execution. On September 8, the net issuance of IBIT and ETH Ashares was +2.60m and +3.12m, which could create potential AP inventory demand. This means authorized participants, or APs, may source or transfer Bitcoin or Ethereum, leading to persistent net issuance that could tighten the float. However, this is not a new demand if the inventory is in-kind or pre-hedging. A counterexample is that holdings CSV lag prevents identifying the purchase time. On September 16, the Arc launch may lead to cheaper institutional USDC settlement, potentially increasing USDC working balances and reserve income, and possibly competing with Ethereum and Solana fees. A counterexample is that existing balances may migrate without additional capital, making the sign of major token return ambiguous. Liquid operational recovery, if verified, could reduce peg uncertainty and resume delayed withdrawals, causing recipients to sell or hold Bitcoin, resulting in opposite market outcomes. Currently, only preparation is verified, with a stale 897 block explorer discrepancy. A strong counterargument is that cash misses momentum and ETF flow follow-through, so opportunity cost is accepted, but no positive probability is assigned from unvalidated facts. Beneficiaries, including sponsors, APs, and distributors, need not be spot token holders. The conclusion is that flow and upgrade monitors support future tests, but not entry now. Sources include iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF and iShares Ethereum Trust ETF. Premises are conditional, with limited soundness due to cash timing, migration, and explorer identity. Facts are based on published shares, dates, and balances, while transmission chains are hypotheses.
A report from Circle, dated August 5, shows that the USDC stablecoin had a total value of $73.3 billion, which is a 19% increase from the previous year. The on-chain transaction volume was $14.8 trillion, a 151% increase, and the revenue from reserve income was $701 million, a 7% increase. The reserve income was $668 million, a 5% increase, and the distribution, transaction, and other costs were $412 million. The EBITDA was $143 million. The reserve income as a percentage of revenue was 95.29%. The revenue, minus the listed distribution cost, was $289 million, which is not the same as GAAP profit. The approximate annualized reserve income was $2.672 billion, and the yield was roughly 3.65% based on the end stock, not the average. This means that a higher turnover does not necessarily require more stablecoin supply, and declining rates and partner distribution can dilute economic capture. The public mainnet date for Arc, announced on August 5, is September 16, but this is a forward-looking claim and not a guarantee of adoption. The beneficiaries of this include the issuer, distribution partners, and users with lower friction, but the benefit to Ethereum is uncertain if activity migrates off the platform. Circle's transparency report, dated September 7, had empty browser amounts, so it is not possible to determine the 7-day net issuance. Metaplanet's first disclosure page, updated on September 1, shows the latest share repurchase and rights status, as well as a planned investment of 2100 BTC in SuperLeague on August 18. An asset transfer for equity is not necessarily a new spot purchase. The stock price of 3350.T was 249 JPY at 01:48 UTC, compared to a baseline of 279, which is the 5-day chart previous close. No execution or stock edge was validated. The sources for this information include Circle's press room, Circle's transparency report, Metaplanet's disclosures, and Yahoo Finance. The observations were made from August 10 to August 12. In conclusion, it is necessary to monitor Arc prospectively, but there is no proposal for CRCL, USDC, ETH, or foreign equity based on usage alone.
A news scan found the issuer pages retrieved on September 9 from 02:02 to 02:06, which now date shares to September 8. The shares for IBIT are 1,387,560,000, which is an increase of 2,600,000, or 0.18773%, from the 1,384,960,000 shares on September 4. The shares for ETHA are 467,680,000, which is an increase of 3,120,000, or 0.67160%, from the 464,560,000 shares on September 4. The end period net asset value is 44.40 and 18.74, which gives issuance valuation proxies of 115.44 million USD and 58.4688 million USD. These are neither actual cash flow nor dated spot trades. The holdings CSVs remain the same as on September 4 and are stale for the September 8 quantities. The future ETHA split on October 5 does not explain the current share change. This new information overturns the earlier unknown current share state. Two funds with the same sponsor are two separate products, not two independent timing confirmations. The premise that shares register reflects net issuance is reasonable. However, the counterexample of reporting correction or in-kind baskets means there is no incremental market buy at publication. We should reject the inference that a decline in assets under management equals redemptions. The latest SEC filing on September 8, 8K000050, shows no new 10Q in the recent 12 periods. The Q2 earnings release shows a 75 million loss in digital assets and receivables, which remains an aggregate of marks and receivables, with no established bitcoin quantity or sale timing. We should keep monitoring 77 for detailed notes. The liquid recipient is 598.50007353 BTC, and the reserve is 3597.47201026, with the operator preparation unchanged, and explorers disagree by 897 blocks, which is stale by 45.23 to 60.18 hours. There is no verified authorized recovery or forced spot flow. The sources of this information include the iShares website, the SEC website, and the Blockstream website. The observations from 16100 to 16102 and 16099 lead to the conclusion that we should upgrade the flow context to positive net share issuance, with the allocation still 0 pending tested edge.
IBIT new shares2600000
IBIT share growth percent0.19
ETHA new shares3120000
ETHA share growth percent0.67
IBIT valuation proxy USD115440000
ETHA valuation proxy USD58468800
Liquid tip discrepancy897
allocation0
Audit Report
TechnicaladoptSupply chain2026-09-09 00:17
A news scan found the headline about a Collector output audit. The audit had three main points. First, a list of jobs for the supply fund at 00:16 showed that job 110 had run at 00:15 but its output was truncated during Automatic Control Process, and it was missing Canada and footer information. The source of this information is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev. This correction is about operational handoff, not financial verdict, and it corrects 1307 operational handoffs. Second, a revised script removes redundant URLs and counts while keeping exact source URLs, hashes, GDamendments, and explicit errors. A local test at 00:16:42 produced 1887 characters with all 13 panels and an END footer. Third, job 110 was cancelled, and job 111 was scheduled at 00:17:09 to run hourly with a 60-second timeout. The existing 12, 18, 36, and 73 were retained, with an active cap of 5. The first scheduled output of job 111 is pending, but it should not be called verified until the next record contains a footer. There are still manual browser gaps for CENTCOM direct 403 and Bombardier challenge. The relevant primary pages are https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/, https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/press-releases/rss, and https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/. The validity of the compact output has been tested and warrants deployment, but the soundness of the latest link and hash is only partial coverage, and a changed hash is not an event. No trade automation or order was made.