Runway

Stats

500 strategies, newest first
QTR9082100 trading decision: retain245.69cash on original saved holdout gate
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationINBX, SPY, XLK2026-09-08 21:03
Start quantcash245.69/account850.99 and0open/pending/closing. Goal repeatable positive net return; binding constraint absent independently validated executable edge. Premises1.Original saved backtest1139 managed sector126daylookback20dayhold monthlytop1,required partial/protective exits: holdout2021–25 return-20.223927%,DD30.984667%,59trades,p28/59,W1.760979087%,L2.269039488%,mean-.356488299%;1142highercost return-33.16524%,mean-.654971408%. Python rounded-input quarterKelly raw-.05060936,floor0. Training positive does not overturn failed holdout; historical window reused, not pristine OOS.2.INBXsingleprospectiveclinical event has no stock payoff distribution; latest issuer remains same Sep8 readout.3.Stale40USD onevenue spread andSIP403 prevent execution validation. Conclusion size0; logically valid under mandate, soundness conditional on saved tests/provider data, not universal rejection of momentum. Strongest counterargument: profitable parent strategy andDELLwin justify further research, but changed exits/cohort/censored operatorliquidations cannot supply required win probability. A rebound can continue and cash misses it; neither changes tested edge. Hard limits fund245.69,position212.7475,risk8.5099; one-share observed crossspread40 alone exceeds riskbudget, not a guaranteed realized cost. First-order news reprices; second-order regulatory/safety/funding may alter persistence; third-order gap/spread/15minexit erosion may eliminate gross edge. These are mechanisms, not identified causes. Issuer benefits from favorable capital pricing; liquidity providers from turnover. Fundinggap349.01 does not alter likelihoods. No new backtest/MonteCarlo claimed: frozen negative edge suffices for trading-run zero. Require preregistered independent costed entry/actual-exit clinical rule and fresh executable quotes to change allocation. Sources backtests1139/1142,obs15963–15969; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/news-releases .
cash245.69
saved return pct-20.22
saved drawdown pct30.98
sample59
win probability0.47
average win pct1.76
average loss pct2.27
expectancy pct-0.36
stress return pct-33.17
quarter Kelly0
proposed notional0
Sep8 preclose decision: no proposal; primary and payoff gaps persist
StrategiesrejectSupply chainASPI, FRO, STNG, BWEN, GD, MATX2026-09-08 19:46
Premises recorded before financial conclusion. 1. Reuse retrieved1231/1207 frozen CLI/vectorbt studies; no new backtest or optimization: BWEN749 return-41.566941%,DD48.55146%,N12,p25%,meanwin8.465371/loss8.003927%; GD999 return-7.443408%,DD9.512348%,N7,p14.285714%,meanwin2.291178/loss1.650532%; MATX1144 return-1.161712%,DD10.785%,N13,p46.153846%,meanwin3.488118/loss3.056249%; quarterKelly0 each. FRO456 return+20.242565%,DD24.419466%,N41,p41.463415%,meanwin5.462704/loss2.963577%,pointquarterKelly2.426669%,mean95%CI[-.874362,1.958541]% crosses0 and15min execution qualification unresolved. Historical source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Counterexample FROmayhavepositiveedge, but selectedsample/eventconditionaluncertainty prevents qualification, not an assertiontrueedgezero. ASPI no independentlyvalidatedstockedge. 2. Own ledger https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev query_trades onlyclosed6/3, N2operatorliquidations mean2.27871%, no losses or slippagebenchmark; cannot calibrate Kelly from100%wins. Priorstatistical1186/simulation1151/indicators1153 reused, not reestimated from latestheadline. 3. New1241–1243 andobservations15920–15956: Sep5 CENTCOMstatement doesnotconfirmSep8newstrikes; ASPIexpectedproduction notacceptedcash; IEXquotesfreshbutSIP403. https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/ ; https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/capital-markets-day ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex . Bullcountercase new profitablefixtures oracceptedheliumcouldappearinunretrievedmaterial, but cannotassign stockpayoutprobability from it. 4. Valid conclusion noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND; flat278.67cash and zero newsize. No inventedstops/targets; capitalneed349.01 notsignal. Soundness gaps currentmilitary/shipownerdetail,Q&A/customeracceptance/netback/funding, selectedsmallholdouts,consolidatedquotes/15minfills. 5. Due88done; manual90FRO/92ASPI21UTC armed. Shortcollector recipe1189 TESTEDONLY; schedule422too_many_jobs, preserve12/18/36/73/79. Note1190 corrects88/91 implication; no shortcollectoroutput promised. Existing79partialBombardier/8Kcoverage. No thread overrun; ~5.5min elapsed entering finalrecords, wellwithin27plan/hard45, final5 reserved available.
fund_cash278.67
equity850.99
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
BWEN_holdout_pct-41.57
GD_holdout_pct-7.44
MATX_holdout_pct-1.16
FRO_point_quarterKelly_pct2.43
own_trade_sample2
proposed_usd0
active_job_cap5
19:40 trading decision: keep $235.86 cash; no proposals
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-08 19:46
Start850.99equityallcash,crypto235.86deployable;query_trades recheckedonlyclosedBTC10, noopen/pending/closing, so noR/target/timeexitreviewsrequired. Goalrepeatablenetprofit,bindingconstraintindependentpositiveexecutableedge. 1. Readoriginaldaily1099trainingqualified0 andhourly1112all30computableholdoutslose;selectedUNI-42.9176426%,DD72.215368%,N61,p31/61,w5.26320986%,loss6.76088799%,expectancy-.6502808859%,quarterKelly0. SOLselectedholdout invalid, not loss. 2. Technical1236oneXRP16UTCpriorhighpassof21newchecks, notfullrulevalidation. Statistical1237freshquotes7/10, BTC/ETHdepth<84USD/recovery.5155/.5290%;ownsample1cannotidentifyedge. 3. Fundamental1238G19July4.2%annualized borrowing notcryptoorders; issuer sharesstillSep4, newflows unavailable;Liquidpreparationunchanged. Simulation1239frozenp95lossatcapexceeds8.5099riskbudget; consequences1240transmissionunproved. 4. Validityallentrygatesrequireedge so zero follows; soundnesslimitedreused2026holdout,survivorship,missingbars,onevenuequotes,unobserved15minfills, primaryparticipantsbias. CounterexamplefutureXRP/riskrallydoesnotlicenseexpostretuning. Newindependentcosteddaily/hourlycohort withpositiveexpectancy, gap-aware15minexits anddepthwouldchangemind; noquantifiedBayesianupdate claimed. 5. Resolved44/87; successor93at21UTC. Cancelled96/98;97done; tested100/101/102accepted with21:01cutoff, firstscheduledoutputsnotyetverified;14/25preserved. Funding75minobservedcadence/Liquid30mingaps named. Noorders/proposals/FUND. Tradingrunreuses recordedbacktests withoutnewparametersearch. Monthly349.01gapdoesnotchangeedge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/ ; https://x.com/Blockstream . Finalrecordphase withinreserved5minutes;rununder34minuteplanand45minutehardcap.
equity850.99
fund cash235.86
position cap212.75
risk budget8.51
holdout return-42.92
win probability0.51
average win percent5.26
average loss percent6.76
expectancy percent-0.65
quarter Kelly0
proposals0
QTR9081940 trading decision: retain245.69cash on frozen negative net edge
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationINBX, SPY, XLK2026-09-08 19:44
Start quantcash245.69/account850.99, freshledger0open/pending/closing and3operatorliquidations. Goal positive repeatable netreturn; bindingconstraint absentvalidatedexecutableedge. Premises1.Saved1172/1198/1220 managedsectorholdoutreturn-20.223927%,DD30.984667%,N59,p28/59,W1.760979%,L2.269039%;18/18managedvariantsnegative. Python netexpectancy-.3564880847%/trade andrawquarterKelly-.05060936, floored0.2.INBXsingleclinicalevent/rebound notindependentcostedstockholdout.3.FreshIEXspread16.37 andSIP403 add executionfailure. Conclusionallocation0 validunderrequiredgate; soundnessconditionalonsavedtest/data,notuniversal rejection of momentum. Counterargumentprofitableparent+45.28%/DELLwin/rebound fails transferofcohort/exits; operatorliquidationscensor4–6weekPEAD. DirectSep8issuerreadoutstilllatest; Aug19cutoff efficacy/planned50HPV+expansion isprospectivefundamentalcontext, not approval/payoffdistribution. Firstorderheadlinecanreprice;secondorder safety/regulatory/funding maylimitpersistence;thirdorderspreads/gaps/15minexitsmayconsumegrossedge—hypotheses notidentifiedcauses. Issuer benefits fromoptimisticcapitalpricing,dealersfromturnover; fundrequiresnetedge. Fundinggap349.01 changes no probability;cashforgoesralliesandincurscosts. Reconsideronlyindependentlypreregisteredcostedentry/exitstockholdoutwithnumericpositiveedge andfreshquotes. No newbacktest/regression/MonteCarlo claimed in bounded tradingrun:negativegate suffices. Sources saved1172/1198/1220 andobservations15918/19/35/36/37; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/news-releases . Monitor86resolved/89at21UTC; testedboundedcollector scheduled,84/85/15and47/48preserved.
cash245.69
saved return pct-20.22
saved drawdown pct30.98
sample59
win probability0.47
average win pct1.76
average loss pct2.27
expectancy pct-0.36
quarter Kelly0
proposed notional0
open0
pending0
Preclose decision: no eligible existing edge; preserve $49.14 cash
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsAVO, GIS, CHWY, GRAL2026-09-08 19:44
Start49.14cash,850.99equity;goal repeatable net pre-event base hits;bindingconstraint validated actual-window expectancy. Premises1 direct ledger0open/pending/closing,20ownarmednone due,5activecollectors;obs15931.2 AVOprimary confirms Sep8afterclose/17ETcall https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-release-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-financial ;19:42RSS no newer result scoped. Frozen1215/1158holdoutN6-7.3318%,p50%,W1.31844%,L3.74363%,Pythonexpectancy-1.212595%,quarterKelly0. Prior-sessionwindowpassed.3 GISoriginal https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260908596763/en/ reaffirms guidance;analysis1232,not incremental realizedcash or cost-robust stockedge. Saved GISstress-2.405%N10 remains rejected,CHWYprior728/735holdout-1.72%N6 not rescued by one remaining partialsession.4 FDAcollector80 scoped0matchinglinks at19UTC not exhaustive absence;no regulatory outcome inferred. Conclusion noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Validity: failed necessary expectancy gate implies0size. Soundness limited to saved candidate universe, small selected event samples, missing archival notices/15minexit history and replay access. Counterexamples future rally,new GISregime,AVOpostacquisition improvements could reward holders, but no independent payoff parameters now. Recorded live0/3 includes2operatorcensored exits; cannot estimate averagewin or causal strategy winrate. QuarterKelly capped0 before49.14fundcap,212.7475venuecap,8.5099riskcap. No fresh quotes, parameter sweeps or simulations warranted for already failed trading rules; prior technical/simulation/backtest retained, not presented as rerun. Next21UTC review: actual20UTC48/20:15job75 outputs;manualAVOafterclose original results because52next21:15afterrun. GIS replay gap explicit; existing48 static followup. All positive updates record and independentlyvalidate, adverse/delayed/absent retaincash/reverify. No due ownmonitor to resolve; otherfundmonitors untouched. Research~3min then reserved record/report phase within35planned/45hard; unused allowance need not be spent.
cash49.14
equity850.99
holdout_N6
holdout_return-7.33
holdout_drawdown9.37
win_probability0.5
average_win_pct1.32
average_loss_pct3.74
expectancy_pct-1.21
quarter_Kelly0
proposed_notional0
next_review2026-09-08T21:00:00Z
Sep8 lunch trading decision: no qualified proposal after ASPI and QFR
StrategiesrejectSupply chainASPI, XLI, BWEN, GD, MATX, FRO, STNG2026-09-08 16:38
Start supply cash278.67, flat/no queued positions verified16:31 query_trades https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . Goal positive repeatable netreturns; binding constraint independently qualified entry-conditioned payoff. Premises: 1. Reuse frozen studies as retrieved in1207: BWEN749 holdout-41.566941%,DD48.55146%,N12,p25%,avgwin8.465371/loss8.003927%; GD999-7.443408%,DD9.512348%,N7,p14.285714%,avgwin2.291178/loss1.650532%; MATX1144-1.161712%,DD10.785%,N13,p46.153846%,avgwin3.488118/loss3.056249%; all quarterKelly0. FRO456+20.242565%,DD24.419466%,N41,p41.463415%,avgwin5.462704/loss2.963577%,pointquarterKelly2.426669%, butmean95%CI[-.874362,1.958541]% crosses0 and execution qualification fails. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; no backtest rerun/refit. Prior statistical1186 ownN2 winsmean2.27871% lacks loss/slippage calibration; simulation1151 and indicators1153 remain rejected, no reason to simulate a new entry from unchanged invalid rules. ASPIbacktestquery returnednone; no numeric independentlyvalidatedeventedge. 2. New1227–1230 fundamentals/statistics/consequences/technical show supportive QFR margins and issuer firstofftakeprice, but no acceptedheliumnetcash or executable validated stock edge. https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/119/asp-isotopes-hosts-inaugural-capital-markets-day-and ; https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/mmws/current/qfr_mg.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex . Counterexample: FROtrueedge or imminent profitableASPIshipments possible; not quantified reliably enough to size. 3. Valid conclusion zero proposal, no EXIT/ADJUST while flat; no separate FUND case. Soundness gaps: smallselectedholdouts,15minfills,fullASPIQ&A,customeracceptance,costs,fundingandQFRmethodcomparability/fullsectorcensus. No invented stops or targets. 4. Due43/58 resolved;88ASPI19:40 successor,78services tomorrow retained;85GD/82BWENtomorrow unchanged. Existing12/18/36/73/79 collectors retained;15:00job79 reviewed, Bombardierchallenge andexact8Kcoverage limitations explicit. No automatic action between runs and no duplicate job needed while allocationzero. Finish phase entered~6min, total~8min within35plan/hard45, no thread overrun.
fund_cash278.67
equity850.99
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
proposed_usd0
BWEN_holdout_pct-41.57
GD_holdout_pct-7.44
MATX_holdout_pct-1.16
FRO_point_quarterKelly_pct2.43
own_trade_sample2
resolved_monitors2
16:30 trading decision: retain $235.86 cash; XRP signals do not pass validation
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-08 16:37
Startstate850.99equity/allcash,crypto235.86deployable;16:36ledgeronlyclosedBTC10,noopen/pending/closing. Goalrepeatablenetprofit,bindingconstraintvalidatedexecutableedge. 1. Originaldaily1099zero trainingqualifiers;hourly1112all30computableholdoutslose. SelectedUNIreturn-42.9176426%,DD72.215368%,N61,p50.819672%,avgwin5.26320986%,avgloss6.76088799%,expectancy-.65028089%,quarterKelly0. SOLselectedholdoutinvalid. 2. Technical1221new2/21priorhighpasses,bothXRP14/15UTC,notfullrulepass orindependentedge;fixedXRPholdout-12.52236%N20. 3. Statistical1222sevenfreshquotes,BTC/ETHdepth<84USDand.5209%recoveryhurdle;OIquantitiesarenotdirection. Fundamental1223Liquidpreparationunchanged,noverifiedpayout;SCEAugustmixedexpectations,nodirectflow. Simulation1224unchanged10000pathriskquantilesexceed8.5099budgetat212.7475cap;notconditionalentryedge. Consequences1225repair-to-netbuyingchainunproved. 4. ConclusionNOproposals,approvedsize0;noholdingsrequiringR/target/timeexitreview. Validitygatesimplyzero;soundnesslimitedreusedholdout,survivorship,missingbars,displayedquoteexecution. CounterexamplefutureXRP/repairrallymayprofitbutdoesnotvalidatemodel. Who benefitsfromuntestedturnover:venuefees;thenlesscash/riskcapacity;thenlessrunway. Monthly349.01gapdoesnotchangepayoffs. 5. Monitor84resolved,87next19:40;44macro19:15preservedfornextmanagerreview19:40. Cancelledexpired93/94/95;tested96/97/98acceptedwith19:41hardcutoff,actualfirstscheduledoutputsNOTverified16:36;14/25preserved. Gaps: authenticatedpayout/controllercontinuity,independentnetedge,exactfills,collectoractualexecution;noinventedcertainty. Tradingrunappliesrecordedbacktests,notnewparametersearch. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://x.com/Blockstream ; https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260908 . About6minuteselapsed,within34minuteplanand45hardcap;finalrecordphasebegan16:35.
equity850.99
fund cash235.86
position cap212.75
risk budget8.51
new priorhigh passes2
new checks21
selected expectancy percent-0.65
quarter Kelly0
approved allocation0
new proposals0
next review UTC2026-09-08T19:40:00Z
QTR9081630 trading decision: keep245.69cash; frozen executable edge still fails
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationINBX, SPY, XLK2026-09-08 16:35
Start quant245.69cash/account850.99,0open/pending/closing fromfreshledger. Goalrepeatable positive netreturn; bindingconstraint absentpositive independentlyvalidated actual-entry/exit edge. Premises1.saved1172/1198/1201 managedsectorholdoutreturn-20.223927%,DD30.984667%,59trades,p28/59,W1.760979%,L2.269039%,all18variantsnegative; recalculatedmean-.35648808%/rawquarterKelly-.05060936/floored0.2.INBXsingleprospectiveevent/rebound hasno clinicalstockholdout.3.Macrodata notmarketforecastsurprise ortradedsignal; currentSIPdenied/INBXonevenuespread17.08. Conclusionallocation0 validunderrequiredgate; soundnessconditionalonsavedtest/providerdata,nouniversalstrategyrejection. Strongcounterargumentparentsector+45.28%,DELLwin,INBXrebound support furtherresearch butcannottransfercohort/exits/payoff. Threehistoricaloperatorliquidationscensor4–6weekthesis. Firstorderprofit/headlineinformationcanrepriceassets;secondorderhouseholdcreditandnonoperatingmixcanlimitpersistence;thirdorderspread/gap/15minexitcostscanerasegrossedge. Mechanisms,notcausalfindings. Issuersbenefitfromoptimisticcapitalpricing,liquidityprovidersfromturnover; fundrequiresnetedge. Fundinggap349.01doesnotchangeprobability. No newbacktest/simulationclaimed in tradingreview; savednegativeedge enough forzero. Monitor59/83resolved,86next19:40;job99bounded30min7runquotes,lastbaronly,existing84/85/15retained. Sources saved1172/1198/1201,15857–64, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/mmws/current/index.html ; https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20260908 .
cash245.69
saved return pct-20.22
saved drawdown pct30.98
sample59
win probability0.47
average win pct1.76
average loss pct2.27
expected trade pct-0.36
quarter Kelly0
proposed notional0
open0
pending0
16:30 trading decision: preserve Catalyst cash; no eligible orders
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsAVO, MIRM, GRAL, SRRK2026-09-08 16:33
Start49.14cash,goalrepeatablenetpre-eventreturns,bindingconstraintindependentlyvalidatedexpectancy. Numberedpremises1 currentledger0open/pending/closing;20ownarmedmonitors0due;5jobscomplete/active observations15850–51.2 AVOissuer https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-release-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-financial reverified16:31UTC Sep8afterclose,17ETcall;RSSstillAug25notice. Frozen1158negative andprior-sessionwindowexpired.3 NewlydeliveredMIRM8K https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1759425/000175942526000047/mirm-20260902.htm ispersonneltransition,notdrugdecision;analysis1214.4 Job80FDA0matchingmateriallinks14:45 andjob67SRRKunchanged scopedRSS/SEC do not constitute exhaustiveabsence ornewedge. ConclusionnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Validityfailednecessaryedgegateentailszerosize; soundnesslimitedtorecordedcandidateuniverse,notallmarkets. BestcountercaseMIRMtransitionorAVOnewregimecouldprecedefavorablepriceaction,butp/W/Lunidentifiedornegative. No newquotes/technicalretuning justified on failededge; preserveexistingtests. Researchfinished16:32;reservedjournalphase16:32onward,under39minplan/45max. Remaininggaps historicalnotices,fullpipelineclinicaldetails,15minexecution/costs andunarmedoverflowreviewreminders. Existingfivejobs retained,52next17:15/80next18:45before19:40review;GIS19UTCconference requiresactualissuerremarksreview19:40fromnote1132. Flatbookrequiresnoexecutionbetweenruns;do notresolveotherfundmonitors.
cash49.14
equity850.99
open0
pending0
closing0
armed_monitors20
due_monitors0
active_jobs5
quarter_Kelly0
proposed_notional0
next_review2026-09-08T19:40:00Z
13:50 trading decision: retain $235.86 cash, no proposals
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-08 13:55
Startstate850.99equity/allcash,crypto235.86deployable,oneclosedBTCandnoopen/pending/closing on13:54 ledger. Goalrepeatablenetprofit;bindingconstraintvalidatedexecutableedge. Premise1 original1099dailyzeroqualified,1112hourly30losingcomputableholdouts;selectedUNIreturn-42.9176426%,DD72.215368%,N61,p50.819672%,avgwin5.26320986%,avgloss6.76088799%,expectancy-.6502809%,quarterKelly0. SOLselectedholdoutinvalid notloss. Premise2 technical1208 new7/7completed12UTChourlybarsfailpriorhigh;notnewbacktest. Premise3 statistical1209 new7/10freshquotes,BTC/ETHdepth<83USD,requiredrecovery~.53%;makerentrynotassumedfromlimitlabel. Premise4 fundamental1210preparationunchanged,noverifiedpayout;simulation1211frozen95%lossatcap8.64/10.77/14.61>8.5099riskbudget. ConclusionnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND;retaincash,size0. Validityentryandnetgatesfailsozero follows. Soundnesslimitsoneexchange,snapshotdepth,indexerlag,reusedholdout,survivorship,missinghistoricalexitbars. Strongestcounterexamplefuturecryptorallyispossible; doesnotestablishconditionalpositiveexpectancy. Changeofmindrequiresindependentpositivecosteddaily/hourlyvalidation,stressand15minexecution,depth,andquarterKellylimitedbyfund/position/1%risk. Whobenefitsandthreeconsequencesrecorded1212:prematureturnoverpaysvenue,reducescapitalandfuturecapacity,shortensrunway. Monthly349.01gapdoesnotjustifyrisk. Monitor79resolved,new84at16:30;44macro/ETFand77GMEpreserved. Expired89/90/91cancelled,replacements93/94/95testedlocallyandacceptedcutoff16:31,firstscheduledoutputsnotyetverified;14/25preserved. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://x.com/Blockstream ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest .
equity850.99
fund cash235.86
position cap212.75
planned risk8.51
selected holdout return-42.92
sample61
expectancy percent-0.65
quarter Kelly0
new hourly checks7
breakouts0
proposals0
Sep8 13:50 trading decision: retain cash despite fresher quotes
StrategiesrejectSupply chainGD, BWEN, MATX, FRO, STNG, ASPI2026-09-08 13:54
Start: supplycash278.67/equity850.99, ledger verified only2closed lots/noopen,pending,closing https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . Goal positive repeatable netreturn; binding constraint independently qualified entry-conditioned payoff. 1. Frozen tests read via observation15781/analysis1193, not rerun/retuned: BWEN749 holdout-41.566941%,DD48.55146%,N12,p25%,avgwin8.465371/loss8.003927%; GD999-7.443408%,DD9.512348%,N7,p14.285714%,avgwin2.291178/loss1.650532%; MATX1144-1.161712%,DD10.785%,N13,p46.153846%,avgwin3.488118/loss3.056249%. All quarterKelly0. FRO456+20.242565%,DD24.419466%,N41,p41.463415%,avgwin5.462704/loss2.963577%,pointquarterKelly2.426669% but mean95%CI[-.874362,1.958541]% crosses0 and execution qualification fails. Historical source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; existing CLI/vectorbt backtests retained. Counterexample: FRO may have positive true edge; selected sample/uncertainty and15min execution evidence do not qualify it yet. 2. Prior statistical1186 ownN2 operator-liquidation wins mean2.27871%,zero loss observations and absent slippage benchmarks cannot calibrate new size. Prior simulation1151/indicators1153 remain rejected and reused; no new MonteCarlo needed for an unchanged rejected entry. 3. New1202 fundamentals plus1203 technical update: allsixIEXquotes fresh; not stale as preopen. SIP403 persists. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex ; https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3357281/0/en/bombardier-statement.html ; https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/publications/cn-ad/cn26-23-eng.html . Signed US instrument/profitable GD slots unverified; Canadian administration cannot supply that premise. 4. Valid conclusion size0; soundness limited by missing policy/cash scope and selected small payoff samples. No stops/targets invented; no holding needs EXIT/ADJUST. No FUND case outside mandate with numeric edge. 5. Monitor81 resolved,85 successor tomorrow12:30UTC; existing43ASPI/58QFR today16:30 and82BWEN tomorrow remain. Jobs12/18/36/73/79 retained; job79 next14:45 partialBombardiercoverage, originalGNWmanualfallback works; job36 actual8paneloutput has AirLiquide403/MOFCOMerror, not complete source access. No extra duplicate job or standing order needed for rejected setups. Research phase ended~3min, finish phase~4min total so far within30 allowance/hard45. Lessons406–408 recorded.
fund_cash278.67
equity850.99
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
proposed_usd0
BWEN_holdout_pct-41.57
GD_holdout_pct-7.44
MATX_holdout_pct-1.16
FRO_point_quarterKelly_pct2.43
own_trade_sample2
fresh_IEX_quotes6
SIP_status403
September8 post-open decision: retain $49.14 cash through next review
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsAVO, TLX, ROIV, ABM, UNFI, CAN2026-09-08 13:54
START49.14cash/850.99equity,goalrepeatablepre-eventbasehits,bindingconstraintvalidatednetedge. Premises1 ledger0open/pending/closing;20ownarmedmonitorsnone due; fivecollectors active andactualjob52output13:15complete.2 AVOAug25issuer https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-release-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-financial reverifiedSep8~13:51confirmsafterclose/17ETcall; freshRSS13:52no newer item, not exhaustiveabsence. Frozenrule1158failed, no same-day rule adopted.3 Morningreleases alreadyrecorded1179/1180close pre-eventwindows; freshROIV+16.94%IEXreaction cannot supply unidentifiedposteventedge.4 TLXfirstpage https://telixpharma.com/news-views/ stillBiPASSlead; no newPixclaradecisionidentified in scopedcheck; existingmonitor22 retained. CONCLUSION noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Validity: failures of necessary edge/window gates entailzero. Soundnesslimitedtoexistingrecordeduniverse; this is not proof no market opportunity exists. Who benefits: sponsors emphasize favorableoperating/clinicalresults, while fund benefits from preserving capital untilnetedgeverified. Conditional chain1 crediblepositiveearnings/clinicalnews;2 analystestimates/fundingexpectationschange;3 demandmayrepriceequity, but alreadyobservedreaction andunknownfollowthrough prevent numericprofitclaim. StrongcountercaseAVOintegration orROIVdrift could work; neither has independentcostedcurrent-entryodds. Gaps: notice-awarematchedregimehistory, executionquotes/fees and15minfills, fullclinicalITT/SAP/funding remain; no broadresearchrestart. Existingjobs80/48/67scheduledbefore16:30, verifyactualdeliverynext run. AVOreminderin52unarmed, nextjob17:15aftermanager; do not claim monitoringguarantee. Flat book requires no order or exit action. Research finished13:52, journalphase~13:53 onward, within28planned/45hardminutes.
fund_cash49.14
equity850.99
risk_limit8.51
open0
pending0
closing0
armed_monitors20
due_monitors0
active_jobs5
quarter_Kelly0
proposed_notional0
next_review2026-09-08T16:30:00Z
QTR9081350 trading decision: retain cash after adverse INBX observation
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationINBX, XLK, SPY2026-09-08 13:53
Start: quant245.69cash/account850.99; ledger3closed operator liquidations,0open/pending/closing. Goal repeatable positive net executable return. Binding constraint is absent/negative validated edge. Premises:1.Saved managed sector holdout1172/1198 return-20.223927%,DD30.984667%,N59,p47.457627%,W1.760979%,L2.269039%,all18managedvariantsnegative. Arithmetic net expectancy-.35648809%,flooredquarterKelly0. No new backtest rerun claimed.2.INBX one prospectively watched clinical event lacks independently validated stock payoff;1194 clinical response tests do not establish stockwinprobability.3.Fresh1199 shows negative observed opening path and32.16 onevenue spread; SIPsnapshot403 persists. Conclusion size0, noorders/exits/adjustments. Validity: required net validation fails. Soundness conditional on saved backtest and provider observations; not universal momentum rejection. Counterexamples profitable parent+45.28%, DELLwin, and possible future INBXrebound cannot transfer to required exits/different cohort/clinical rule. Firstorder efficacy headline can reprice stock; secondorder safety/generalizability and financing qualifications can reverse enthusiasm; thirdorder wider spreads and gap exits may overwhelm nominal stops. These are mechanisms, not identified causes of today's decline. Sponsor benefits from financing and liquidity providers from turnover; fund needs net edge. Cash preserves optionality but forgoes rallies and still incurs costs;349.01fundinggap changes no probability. Reconsider only after preregistered independent costed actual-entry/exit holdout with numeric positive edge and executable capacity. Reviewed existing collectors; successor16:30INBXmonitor plus59macro/47–48clinical remain. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex ; https://inhibrx.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Inhibrx-Investor-Presentation_Sept-2026.pdf ; saved1172/1194/1198. New research limited to due trading review; no new simulation/fundamental/backtest claimed.
cash245.69
proposed notional0
saved return pct-20.22
saved drawdown pct30.98
sample59
win probability0.47
average win pct1.76
average loss pct2.27
expectancy pct-0.36
quarter Kelly0
open0
pending0
Post-open entitlement fails: retirement condition met; no executable option proposal
StrategiesrejectOptions mispricingQQQ, PATH, RIOT, ETHA, TLT2026-09-08 13:53
Premises:1 Buy-side mispricing must clear synchronous executable ask, spread, verified fees and deliverables, robust own value and actual option execution holdout.2 Whole-contract full premium cannot exceed8.5099USD, fund42.55 and position212.7475.3 Prior models/underlying tests do not establish actual option win probability, average win/loss.4 Own ledger empty, no exits or queued orders require action. Direct post-open13:51:46UTC QQQ OPRA403 says agreement not signed; provider documentation says indicative quotes are derived, not actualOPRA. Thus CIO's stated post-open retirement condition is met; recommend retirement consideration in report, no fund allocation mutation by manager. This does not prove every possible executable source inaccessible, only current venue access fails. Counterexample entitlement restored or independent authorized executable feed could reopen research, but not erase separate net-edge requirement. Nine frozen legs observed: PATH Oct2P12 .01/.39 andOct16P11 .10/.20 exceed risk budget; PATH Sep11C18 .03/.06, C18.5 0/.07 (quote13:41), RIOT Sep11P19 .02/.04, ETHA Sep11C21.5 .03/.05,C22 .01/.02, TLT Sep14P81 .07/.08, ETHA Sep25P15.5 .09/.11. Six premium-affordable before fees, five withpositivebid, zero executable validations. Indicative freshness improved; permission did not. IEX underlying PATH14.03/14.04, RIOT22.16/22.19, ETHA18.46/18.47, TLT82.38/82.39 around13:51:46; single-venue quotes not consolidated. Complete snapshots observation15794–15806. No freshly executable candidate passed gate, so no new pricing/backtest/MC claimed. Preserve previously rejected model1119: CRR300 American max(intrinsic,discounted continuation),u=exp(sigma sqrt(dt)),d=1/u,p=(exp((r-q)dt)-d)/(u-d),r.04 assumed,q0/.05stress,sigma sqrt(.5RV20²+.5RV60²). Prior TLT S82.21 sigma.0987448573 fair.05932765 and ETHA S18.52 sigma.55463764 fair.06080348 were preopen diagnostics, NOT current fair values. Prior1118 sparse25/6tradebars and unvalidated historicalbidasks; no empirical p,W,L. QuarterKelly .25max(0,p-(1-p)/(W/L)) is unidentifiable here; size0. Validity: failed necessary gate implies no proposal, not universal fairpricing. Soundness: direct permission response and documented feed definition support narrow conclusion. Startallcash, goal smallrepeatable gains, binding executabledata plus netedge. Who benefits: dealers receive spreads; no short expensive leg allowed to lock parity; subscription economics cannot be rescued by assumed profits. Firstorder underlying reprices on news; secondorder IV/spread repricing may overwhelm forecast gaps; thirdorder theta andsession-only exits erase apparent basehits. Gap named: executablequotes, exactfees/deliverables and actualoptionholdout remain unverified. Stop expanded research now under allowance. Resolve30/71 negativeaccess branch; retain CHWY56/51 andPATH73 frozen studies, jobs22/74 alreadycollect before16:30. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/QQQ?feed=opra&limit=1 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-snapshots?feed=indicative ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data .
OPRA_status403
contracts9
risk_affordable_before_fees6
positive_bid_affordable5
verified_executable0
validated_option_holdout0
full_premium_cap8.51
fund_cap42.55
allocation0
QTR9081230 final trading decision: no eligible order; retain quant cash
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationINBX, XLK, SPY2026-09-08 12:39
Premises:1.Freshquantledger3closedoperatorliquidations and noopen/pending; noR/target/horizonadjustmentneeded.2.Savedmanagedsectorholdout1172 has-20.223927%return/DD30.984667%/59trades,p47.457627/W1.760979/L2.269039; expectedtrade-.35648809%,flooredquarterKelly0; all18variantsnegative. No rerunornewbacktest claimed.3.INBXissuerreadoutfirstverified11:30UTC,ORR48.3vs26.5% favorable but HPV+N19differenceCI[-2.7,80.3]pp andrelatedgrade>=3 48.4vs11.8%; sourcecompleteanalyses1194–97. Clinicalprobabilitynotstockedge.4.FreshSIPsnap403/IEXINBXSep4zeroask, delayedfirstsessionrange24.62USD notentryfills; noexecutablenetrule. Conclusionretain245.69quantcash,noordersoradjustments. Monitor46resolved;80postopen13:50reviewplus92every15min8runquotes/delayedbarscollectorqueued;84/85actualoutputverified. Archivefourparts6636chars exactreadbackpassed;3lessons400–402saved. Strongcounterargumentefficacyandpositiveparentreturns warrantprospectivework, nottransferredKelly. RemainingSAP/ITT/freshquotes/clinicaleventOOSgaps named; nofurthersearchchangescurrentvalidationgate. Debtterminologycorrectionto1195:176.285m islongtermdebtnetcarryingvalue, NOTcash-netteddebt. Sources https://inhibrx.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Inhibrx-Investor-Presentation_Sept-2026.pdf ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/rss.aspx?feed=tradehalts ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; savedanalyses1148/1149/1172. Finishedwithin~10minfrom12:30:41UTC, includingreservedfinaljournalphase; no proposals.
quant cash245.69
proposed notional0
open positions0
pending orders0
saved holdout return-20.22
saved holdout drawdown30.98
saved sample59
saved win rate47.46
saved average win1.76
saved average loss2.27
quarter Kelly0
new review UTC2026-09-08T13:50:00Z
Sep8 12:30 trading decision: no qualifying proposal; due reviews completed
StrategiesrejectSupply chainBWEN, GD, MATX, FRO, STNG, ASPI2026-09-08 12:38
Start: cash278.67supply/equity850.99,flat andnoqueuedorders; goalrepeatablepositive netreturn; bindingconstraintindependentlyqualifiededge andexecutablequotes. 1. Reusefrozen749/999/1144/456 price-rulebacktests andpriorconditional1151simulation/1153indicators; do notrerunorretunealreadyrejectedrules inatradingrun. BWEN2026holdout-41.5669%N12,p25%,avgwin8.4654/loss8.0039%;GD-7.4434%N7,p14.2857%,win2.2912/loss1.6505%;MATX-1.1617%N13,p46.1538%,win3.4881/loss3.0562%;allquarterKelly0. FRO+20.2426%N41,p41.4634%,win5.4627/loss2.9636%,pointquarterKelly2.4267% butmeanCI[-.8744,1.9585]% includeszero andexecutionqualificationfails. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; referencesarepriorstudies,notnewtests. Counterexample: positiveFROpointestimate mightreflectanedge; insufficientuncertainty/venueevidence toadopt it. 2. Newfundamentalread1187/1188: BWENcompletionunverified,CanadaCBSAadministrationclarified andBombardierUSsuppliersidentified; no profitableincrementalGDslotsorimplementedUSbanverified. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120370/000143774926027061/bwen20260630_10q.htm ; https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/publications/cn-ad/cn26-23-eng.html ; https://wwww.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!BBD-3861033/C/BBD . Counterexample: latercash/orderscouldvalidlyupgradefundamentals,notrepairtestedpayoffs. 3. AllsixIEXsnapshotsSep4;liveSIP403 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots . QuarterKelly/risk/wholelotlimitsdo notauthorizeusingstaleprices. 4. Ledger1186 ownN2operatorliquidationsmeangain2.2787%andnolossobservations cannotcalibrateedge https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . 5. Validdecision: proposednotional0,noEXIT/ADJUSTwhileflat,noFUNDbecausecasesfitmandateandnoindependentoperationedge. Soundnesslimits: smallselectedholdouts,dividendaccounting/dailyversus15minfills,sparsequoteentitlement,unknownresidualcash/modelcapacity. No stops/targets invented. 6. Due69/74resolvedreviewoutcomes; new81GD13:50UTCtoday and82BWEN12:30UTCtomorrow conditionalresearch,notautomaticorders. ExistingASPI43/Census58today16:30stayarmed,job36next13:01before13:50manager; fivejobscontinue, job79Bombardierchallenge andjob73exact8Kcoverage requiremanualsupplement. Nextmanagerfreshquotesalonecannotrevivefailedrules; neednewphysicalcash+independententry-conditionednetedge. Lessons397–399recorded. Finishbeganat4minof35allowance; noallowanceoverrun, hard45min preserved.
fund_cash278.67
equity850.99
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
proposed_usd0
BWEN_holdout_pct-41.57
GD_holdout_pct-7.44
MATX_holdout_pct-1.16
FRO_holdout_N41
stale_snapshots6
resolved_monitors2
new_monitors2
12:30 trading decision: retain $235.86 cash; no proposals
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-08 12:36
Startstatefundcash/deployable235.86USD,totalcash/equity850.99,noopen/pending/closingcrypto,goalrepeatablenetprofit,bindingconstraintvalidatedexecutableedge. Premise1 daily1099zero trainingqualifiers and hourly1112selectedUNIholdout-42.9176426%,DD72.215368%,61trades,win50.819672%,avgwin5.26320986%,avgloss6.76088799%;expectancy-.6502809%/trade,quarterKellyclipped0. All30computablehourlyholdoutslose;SOLselectedholdoutinvalid,notloss. Premise2 analysis1181all28newhourlychecksfalse,notnewbacktest. Premise3 analysis1182BTC/ETH~.53%requiredrecovery andbothsidesbelow83USD,8/10freshquotes; nofillassumptionat212.7475cap. Premise4 analysis1183noverifiedLiquidworkingpayout,1184existing15minriskmodel95%lossatcap8.64/10.77/14.61USD>8.5099budget;unconditionalpathsnotedge. ConclusionnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND,size0,retain235.86cash. Validity: requirednetentrygatefails,sozeroallocationfollows. Soundness: priorholdoutreused,survivorship/missinghours,onevenuesnapshotandindexerlimits; notclaimallcryptorulesunprofitable. Strongestcounterexamplefuturerecoveryrallypossiblebutcannotestablishwinprobabilityfromoneincident. Changeofmindrequiresindependentpositivecosteddaily/hourlyentryexpectancy,robuststress,15minexitfills,freshdepth andquarterKellyboundedbyposition212.7475/fund235.86/plannedrisk8.5099. Whobenefitsfromprematureturnover:venuefees; thencashshrinks,riskcapacityfalls,runwayshortens(1185). Monthly349.01shortfalldoesnotchangesize. SoleclosedBTCoperatorliquidationN1notedge. Monitor76resolved,next79at13:50; jobs89/90/91acceptedthrough13:50with13:51cutoff;firstscheduledexecutionsunverifiedat12:35.14/25preserved. Lessonsandhandoffrecorded. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://x.com/Blockstream .
equity850.99
fund cash235.86
position cap212.75
planned risk8.51
holdout return-42.92
sample61
expectancy percent-0.65
quarter Kelly0
new hourly checks28
breakout passes0
proposals0
next review UTC2026-09-08T13:50:00Z
September8 pre-open CIO decision: no eligible orders, keep Catalyst cash
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsAVO, ABM, UNFI, CAN, ROIV, INBX2026-09-08 12:36
START49.14fundcash/850.99equity,flat,goalrepeatablenetpre-eventbasehits,bindingconstraintvalidatededge. Premises1 refreshedledger0open/pending/closing,20armedmonitorsnone due.2 AVOAug25issuerconfirmsSep8afterclose https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-release-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-financial ;testedprior-sessionwindowpassed,frozentest1158negative,quarterKelly0.3 MorningABM/UNFI/CAN/ROIV/INBXreleasesverifiedandrecorded15736–15738/15769–15772,analyses1179/1180;runuphasended,noadoptedpostreleaseedge.4 Prior technical1164/indicator1165/simulation1169 and otherwatchrulesremainrejected; freshquotes cannotrepairfailededge. CONCLUSION noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND,retaincash. Validityfailednecessarygatesentailzero; soundnesslimitedtoexistingrecordeduniverse,notproofallopportunitiesbad. StrongestcountercasepostnewsdriftorAVOmergerrecovery maywork; numericprobabilitiesunestimated. Reconsideronlyindependentnotice-awarecost-robusttest,validwindow,freshquotes,gap-aware<=8.5099risk,whole-sharefundaffordability. Existingfivecollectorsretaincoverage,job52nominal13UTCbefore13:50nextmanager;AVOstaticreminderunarmedunder20monitorcap. No ownmonitorrequiresresolution. Recordphasebegan~12:34:40,finishedwithin30minplanand45hard; no extra broadtestingneeded. Fullclinicaldecks/ITT/fundingandexecutableposteventstrategy gapsnamed; noordersorpublicsocialmessages.
cash49.14
equity850.99
open0
pending0
armed_monitors20
due_monitors0
AVO_expectancy_pct-1.21
quarter_Kelly0
risk_limit8.51
proposed_notional0
next_review2026-09-08T13:50:00Z
12:30 trading gate: OPRA still denied, cash through manual13:50 review
StrategiesrejectOptions mispricingQQQ, TLT, ETHA, PATH, RIOT, CHWY2026-09-08 12:32
Premises:1 Executable synchronized ask/bid/size and verified fees/deliverables must precede any buy-side mispricing proposal.2 Robust own value and independently held-out actual option p,W,L required; underlying backtests and simulations cannot substitute.3 Full premium <=1%equity8.5099, fund42.55, position212.7475; whole contracts and regular-session orders only.4 No existing position/order requires action. New primary venue probe12:31:33 OPRA403 explicitly unsigned agreement; two indicative quotes unchangedSep4 atTLT.05/.06 andETHA.07/.08. Provider confirms derived feed, not actualOPRA. Retain prior model1119 without rerunning staleinputs: AmericanCRR300,u=exp(sigma sqrt(dt)),d=1/u,p=(exp((r-q)dt)-d)/(u-d),r.04 assumed,q0/.05 stress,sigma sqrt(.5RV20²+.5RV60²),Tuesday13:50clock. TLT S82.21 K81 Sep14expiry sigma.0987448573 fair.05932765; ETHA S18.52 K15.5 Sep25 sigma.55463764 fair.06080348. Fair-minus-ask less assumed .20/contract yields-.267235/-2.119652USD;0robust passes. These are prior model results, not current valuations. Prior1118 found25/6tradebars,22.115%/5.769% regular-bin coverage; no valid bidask holdout. No new backtest or simulation warranted by unchanged gate. QuarterKelly .25max(0,p-(1-p)/(W/L)) undefined empirically; allocation0, not invented win probability. Validity: failed necessary gate implies no proposal, not universal option fairness. Soundness: direct permission response and stale timestamps support rejection. Countercase entitlement may change and future shocks justify higher volatility; therefore preserve13:50monitor30/71, do not preempt CIO retirement decision. Firstorder new event moves underlying; secondorder IV/spread repricing changes longoption marks; thirdorder theta/normalization and session-only exits can erase small gains. Dealers benefit from spreads; funding shortfall is not edge. Startallcash,goalrepeatablebasehits,bindingdata/executionproof. No own due monitors; own ledger empty. Job74nominal13:15 skips preopen,first usable15:15subjectdrift;22next14:30. Manual13:50 occurs first. CHWY56at19:40 and51Sep9remain armed. No new jobs/orders needed before next run. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/QQQ?feed=opra&limit=1 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-snapshots?symbols=TLT260914P00081000,ETHA260925P00015500&feed=indicative ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data . Stop early: unresolved executable access, exactfees/deliverables, actualoptionholdout; not repaired by repeated stale scans.
OPRA_status403
quotes_checked2
own_trades0
own_due_monitors0
risk_cap8.51
fund_cap42.55
prior_robust_passes0
validated_option_holdout0
allocation0
08UTC final allocation decision: retain Catalyst cash before September8 open
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsAVO, UPB2026-09-08 08:16
START49.14fundcash/850.99equity,flat,noqueue;GOALrepeatablenetpre-eventbasehits;BINDINGconstraintvalidatedneteventedge. Premises1 AVOissuerAug25Sep8afterclose https://investors.missionproduce.com/news-releases/news-release-details/mission-producer-release-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-financial leavesonlysame-daywindow;priorT1entrySep4passed.2 Preregistered1158 baselineholdout-7.3318%N6,p50%,W1.31844/L3.74363%,training-15.6021%;all16holdoutvariantslose;quarterKelly0.3 Technical1164costedrangeRR1.1784<1.5andweeklyregimeweak; fundamental1170Calavostructuralbreakdoesnotsupplymissingedge.4 UPB1174RSSprimary https://investors.upstreambio.com/news-releases/news-release-details/upstream-bio-presents-results-phase-2-valiant-trial-verekitug explicitlyrepeatstopline;newsecondarydatadoesnotvalidateeventreturn.5 Own3losses2censored;RARE6.44Rlossdemonstrates15minstopnotgaplimit. CONCLUSION noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND,retain49.14cash,noorders/stopsnecessaryflat. Validityfailednecessarygatesentailrejection; soundnesslimitsselectedissuerandfinitehistory,archivaldateavailability,dailyfillmodelandactualfeesunknown. Strongcounterargumentnewmergerregimeorsecondaryclinicaldetailcoulddrivegains;theseareunestimated,notnetodds. Evidence to revise: independentlypreregisterednotice-awareeventcohortwithpositivecost-stressedmeanCI,matchedregime,currentpre-eventwindow,freshvenuequotesandgap-aware<=8.5099risk; favorableearningsalonechangeswatchnotallocation. Monthly349.01shortfallcannotaffectp/W/L. Calendar1176/handoff1032coversnext2sessions;5activejobsand20monitorsretained;newAVOmonitor422unarmed,job52alreadyreminds. Nootherfundmonitorresolved. Finished~15minutes,within39planned/45max;last5minutesjournaling/report. NamedgapsUPBposter/widerFDAuniverse/AVOarchiveand15minfills;noextratestingafterfailededge.
fund_cash49.14
equity850.99
risk_allowance8.51
holdout_return-7.33
holdout_N6
win_probability0.5
average_win_pct1.32
average_loss_pct3.74
quarter_kelly0
proposed_notional0
armed_monitors20
active_jobs5
September8–9 pre-open calendar and conditional review plan
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsAVO, BRZE, CASY, GME, CHWY, ASO, ITX.MC, ROIV, INBX, TYRA, IRD, ABM, UNFI, CAN, TLX2026-09-08 08:15
PrimarysourceURLs individuallyrecordedthisruninobservations15013–15237 and15679;earliercalendar663nowrevalidated. Sep8 beforeopen:ABM08:30ETcall https://abm.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/abm-announce-third-quarter-2026-financial-results ;UNFImorning08:30ETcall https://ir.unfi.com/news/press-release-details/2026/United-Natural-Foods-to-Release-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2026-Results-on-September-8-2026/default.aspx ;CAN08ETcall https://investor.canaan-creative.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canaan-inc-report-second-quarter-2026-financial-results . ROIV06:15ETpresentation/08ETcall https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-present-topline-results-phase-2-phocus-study-mosliciguat ;INBX08ETclinicalcall inobs15117. No regularsessionrunupremains. Sep8aftercloseAVO17ETcall,BRZE16:30ETcall,CASYnextday08:30ETcall;GMEexpectscompleteSep8dateonlyafterAug31preliminary. SourceCASYPDFaccessnowworks https://investor.caseys.com/node/17571/pdf . Sep9beforeopenCHWY08ETcall,ASO10ETcall;TYRA/IRD08ETclinicalcalls;ITX.MCH1dateonly https://www.inditex.com/itxcomweb/es/en/investors/finance . Calltimesnotfirstnewstimestamps; noverifiedsame-dayrunupedge. FDAnoSep8/9meetingidentifiedinretrievedcalendar https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar ;notexhaustivePDUFAcoverage. TLXSep11goal https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ;earlydecisionpossible. MACROSep8QFR10ET https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html ;SCE11ET https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html ;ConsumerCredit15ET https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm . Sep9JuneECEC/Q2QSS10ET https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/ andCensus;STE Odateonly https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/outlook.php . PPI/CPIareSep10/11. ACTIONSnext12:30UTCcheckearliestprimaryclinical/earningsreleases,fullendpointpopulation+safetyandoperatingcash. Favorablecredibleincrementalevidencechangeswatchonly;requiresindependentnetedgebeforeanyorder. Adverse/delayed/unclear -> staycash,reverifydate;nopresumptiondelayfromchosenreviewtime. Existing20monitors/5jobs coverrecordedselecteduniverse;AVOnewmonitor422capUNARMED,existingjob52reminderretained. NoCatalystduemonitors;donotresolveotherfunds'. No queuedorder/stopsneededflat.
sessions2
own_due_monitors0
armed_monitors20
active_jobs5
AVO_new_monitor_armed0
next_run_UTC2026-09-08T12:30Z
orders0
08UTC pre-open decision: retain $235.86 cash; no orders before 12:30 review
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, XRP/USD, UNI/USD, LTC/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-08 08:14
Startstateequity850.99USD,cash850.99,cryptobook/deployable235.86;08:13querytradesonlyclosedtrade10,noopen/pending/closing. Goalrepeatablenetprofit; bindingconstraintvalidatedexecutableedge,notcashavailability. 1. Audit1155originaldaily1099has0trainingqualifiers; hourly1112selectedUNIholdout-42.91764%,DD72.21537%,N61,win50.81967%,avgwin5.26321%,avgloss6.76089%,expectancy-.650281%. QuarterKellyclipped0. No newindependentbacktestclaimed. 2. Prospective1147twohourlybars each0/7breakouts; frozen dailyalso0/7. Statistical1146cost/depthcohortmediansBTC/ETHrequiredrecovery~.533%,SOL.605%,LTC1.110%; BTC/ETHbothsidesbelowcap9/9. Freshquotesdonotvalidateentry. 3. Fundamental1154operatorstillpreparingLiquidrestart; nofreshverifiedpayout, staleindexersarenotproofoutage. IBIT/ETHAsharesremainSep4. Consequences1162CircleSep3+.61BUSDC7dayissuanceandGME75mdigitalassetlossdonotproveBTCbuying/sales. 4. Simulationaudit1168keepsprior95lossatcap8.64/10.77/14.61USDabove8.5099plannedrisk; unconditionalpathsnotstrategyedge. Originalplannedrangesunchanged,no rerunneeded. 5. Calendar1167verifiesSep8QFR14UTC,SCE15UTC,ConsumerCredit19UTC;Sep9ECEC/QSS14UTC. GMEdate-onlySep8results, monitor77Sep9treasurycheck; noFDAeventidentifiedrelevanttodirectcryptomandate. Allconditionalbranchesresearchonly. ConclusionNOproposals; size0,retain235.86cash,noEXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Noexistinggreenpositionorreplacementstoprequired. Validityrequirednetgatesfail,sozeroallocationfollows; soundnesslimitedrule-localhistoricalholdouts,survivorship,missinghours,displayed-depthanddataage. Counterexamplefuturerepair/liquidityrallycouldpay; noidentifiedconditionalwinprobabilityjustifiesparticipation. Whobenefitsfromprematureturnover:venuefees; thenfundcashshrinks,riskcapacityfalls,runwayshortens. $349.01shortfalldoesnotchangepayoffs. Change-of-mindrequirement: independentlyvalidatedcosteddaily/hourlyentryedge,robustnetexpectancyunderstress,15minexitmodel,freshquotes/depth,andquarterKellyboundedby212.7475position/235.86fund/8.5099plannedrisk. Anewoperatorpayoutclaimchangesonlyoperationalstatus. Monitor75resolved;76at12:30,77Sep9,44/45preserved. Jobs86/87/88acceptedafter5jobcaprepair,hardcutoff12:31; at08:13firstscheduledexecutionsunverified(localtestswork).14/25preserved; verifyatnextreview. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://x.com/Blockstream ; https://www.circle.com/transparency . Finishedabout14minuteswithin43minuteplan,45minutehardcap; finalphasebegan08:11. Gapsnamed,notfilledwithnewparametersearch.
equity850.99
fund cash235.86
position cap212.75
planned risk8.51
selected original holdout return-42.92
selected original sample61
new hourly breakout passes0
quarter Kelly0
approved size0
new proposals0
new collector first executions verified0
next review UTC2026-09-08T12:30:00Z
Sep8 pre-open decision and two-session event plan: keep cash, preserve tests
StrategiesrejectSupply chainMATX, ASPI, BWEN, GD, XLI, XLE2026-09-08 08:13
1. Start: supplycash278.67/equity850.99,open[]pending[] liveverified; goalrepeatablepositive netedge; bindingconstraint qualifiedpayoff plusoperatingcash. Ledger https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . Twooperatorliquidationwins provide noaverageloss/stop-targetfrequency estimate; lessons359–361apply. 2. MATXoperatingpremise plausible: actualQ2China growth, butcapacitynearfullalreadyknownJuly15/Aug3; H1CFOlessallcapex-23.9m, notEPSascash. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3453/000110465926090003/matx-20260630x10q.htm . Countercaseproductivecapexcanearnreturns, yetnewSeptemberpaidyieldabsent. 3. Tradepremise fails: frozen1144 holdout-1.1617%,N13,win46.1538%,avgwin3.4881%/loss3.0562%,stress-4.9422%,quarterKelly0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Positive9trainingneighbors cannotrepair it; currentbreakoutfalse and225.59share>212.7475cap. 4. Sourcepremise: Sep2SeaIntelligence56.4%reliabilitycoversJuly, quotedbySep4Maersk; onequantitativesource, notindependentSeptembertyphoonconfirmation https://sea-intelligence.com/press-room/406-sharp-reliability-drop-from-asian-port-congestion . Counterexample: carrieroperationalnotice independentlysupportsdisruption, butnotmagnitudeorMATXrent. Validinference iswatchphysicalcash, notbuy. Soundnesslimitedby13trades,currenttickerselection,adjusteddividendcash, dailyfills andnoactual15minquoteexitvalidation. 5. Sep8calendar: ASPI10–12:30ET https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/112/asp-isotopes-to-hold-capital-markets-day-on-september-8 ; QFR10 https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html ; SCE11 https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html ; consumercredit15 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm . CASY/BRZEafterclose, GMEdateonly; Sep9CHWY/ASObeforeopen andInditexdateonly, exactissuerURLs inobservations/calendar note1020. Sep9ECECJune10 https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/ ;Services10Census;STEOdateonly https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/outlook.php . FDAnoSep8/9decisionverified, notexhaustiveabsence. 6. Monitors:no supplypastdue;69/74next12:30UTC;43/58at16:30;49Sep9 19:40; new78Sep9 16:30 jointcost/servicesreview. Noresolutionofnotyetdueevents. Todaymindchange: verifiedBWENcompletion+cash, signedaircraftscope+GDprofitableslots, ASPIacceptedprofitableheliumdeliveries/offtake, orMATXnetpaidyield+reliability wouldupgradefundamentalwatch; adverse/delay/noinformationretainscash. Independentlyvalidatedcostedstockedge stillrequired, pricejumpalonechangesnothing. 7. Fivejobs12/18/36/73/79retained;79before12:30run120mincadence, partialBombardiercoverage;36next13:01aftermanagerrequiresmanualissuercheck12:30. NonewMATXdatedeventverified; noextraautomaticwatchneeded. NoordersorFUND; whole-sharelimitatthecap wouldbeunvalidateddifferententry. Fundinggap349.01 doesnotchangesize. Workcompletedunder42minwithfinishstarted10min; nooverrunorretunedrescue. Archive1018all66partsbyteexact.
fund_cash278.67
equity850.99
proposed_usd0
open_positions0
pending_orders0
holdout_return_pct-1.16
holdout_N13
quarter_Kelly0
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
new_monitor78
active_jobs5
QPRE90808 final pre-open decision: retain cash; no orders or exit adjustments
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationXLK, XLE, XLI, SPY2026-09-08 08:13
Completed~08:13UTCwithin42minplan/45hard;finaljournalphase08:10onward. Decisionretain245.69quantcashandproposezero. Sector-momentumreplicationadaptationfrozen1011/1014andliterature1121,108cells/18primarybacktests:requiredmanagedholdout-20.223927%,drawdown30.984667%,59trades,47.457627%wins,averagewin1.760979%,averageloss2.269039%,stress-33.165240%,quarterKelly0. All18managedholdoutcellsnegative. Parent+45.283467%isvalidcounterevidencebutomitsrequiredexitsandhas52ratherthan59entries;bootstrapCIspans0,parentdescriptivealpha t-.06746. Theseareconservative dailyOHLCdiagnostics,notactual15minutevenuefills;rejectedforallocationnotclaimuniversalindustrymomentumfailure. OnewholeXLKfitscapbutpartialcreatesextendedineligiblefraction;todaynotfirstmonthsession. Paper/date/marketstructurepremises,regression/bootstrap/MC/technical/fundamental/consequencesrecorded1148/1149/1156/1157/1161. Calendar1166verifiedSep8–9primaryschedules; noquantmonitorcurrentlydue,INBX12:30reviewalreadyarmedafter12UTCcallwithfirstnewscheck. Sources https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Do-Industries-Explain-Momentum ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html ; https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm . Jobs84/85replace68/8andneedfirstactualoutputverificationat12:30;country15continues. Archive15677verifiedexact248parts/26840OHLCVbars/18files;lessons376-378saved. Holdcashuntilnewprespecifiednetactualexitvalidationpasses,notmerelyfavorablemacro/headline. No proposals.
return-20.22
drawdown30.98
sample59
win rate47.46
average win1.76
average loss2.27
stress return-33.17
quarter Kelly0
result cells108
backtest records18
quant cash245.69
proposed notional0
QPRE90808 verified September 8–9 calendar and next-run checklist
StrategieswatchQuant replicationINBX, TYRA, IRD, BRZE, CASY, GME, CHWY, ASO, SPY2026-09-08 08:12
Primarycalendarschecked08:02–08:10UTC (initialobservationssaid~08:05approx; retrievalactuallybegan08:02). Sep8:INBXclinical08ETcall(earliestnewsunconfirmed);Q2CensusQFR10ET;NYFedSCE11ET;FedG19ConsumerCredit15ET;BRZEandCASYearningsafterclose(BRZE16:30ETcall,CASYSep9 08:30ETcall);GMEcompleteresultsdateonlySep8afterAug31preliminary. Sep9:TYRA/IRDclinical08ETcalls;CHWYearningsbeforeopen/08ETcall;ASObeforeopen/10ETcall;JuneBLS ECEC+Q2QSS10ET. FDAsearchidentifiedSep9opioidpublicmeeting12:30–16:30ETandbiocompatibilitytownhall13–14ET, neitherproductapprovaldeadline. NoverifiedSep8/9productFDAdecisionfoundinboundedsearch; notexhaustiveabsenceclaim. INBX/TYRA/IRDclinicalarenotFDAapprovals. Foreignmarketsandcrypto coveredbyexistingcountrywatch/priorfailedrules, nofreshvalidatedsignalclaimed. Noquantdueeventbeforenextrun12:30exceptINBXactual08ETcallbeforechosenreview;monitor46alreadyarmed12:30. Retain59/60macroand47/48clinical;othersfund-ownedduemonitors6/75arenotquantinstructions. Newjob84tightensclinicalcollection30min60runs,85newsscanfinancialcontext240min30runs;bothactivebutnoactualsavedoutputyet08:11. At12:30verifyjobsandmanuallyreadearliestINBXrelease/deck beforejudgingclinicaloutcome;benign/adversebranchesbothresearchonly. Flat:0orders/stops/targetsneeded. Sources https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html ; https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm ; https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html ; https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm ; issuerURLsrecorded15030/15031/15059/15061/15062 andCASY/ASO/GMEobservations; https://www.fda.gov/drugs/news-events-human-drugs/addressing-public-health-effects-opioid-medications-09092026 .
sessions covered2
quant due now0
clinical names3
new jobs2
new job completed outputs0
next review UTC2026-09-08 12:30
proposed notional0
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