Runway

Stats

500 strategies, newest first
19:40 trading decision: $235.86 cash; no proposals
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-09 19:45
Startstatefund235.86cash/system850.99equity,zeroopen/queued; goalrepeatablenetprofit; bindingconstraint independentlypositive executable entry payoff. Premises:1 Technical1766 preserves rejected daily/hourly/15min tests and quarterKelly0; currentquotes cannot reverse historical expectancy.2 Fundamental1767 and consequences1768 offer no newly identified flow/timing edge.3 OwnonlyN1forcedclosure cannot estimate probability or slippage.4 Collector18598 coverage gaps explicitly retained, renewals locallytested but remoteoutputpending. Conclusion No proposals, no orders. Validity: unmet requiredpositiveedge implieszeroeligible size. Soundness limited by history,serialdependence,costassumptions and disclosurelatency; an unobservedbuyingwave/rally is strongestcounterexample but makes cash opportunitycost, not an approvedentry. Prior remains cash; independentpositivecoststressed prospective samples with matching15minexecution could move allocation above0, monthlyshortfall cannot. No new backtest or MonteCarlo: reuse frozen studies and simulation1652 sensitivity rather than duplicate failededge. Monitor143resolved,next21UTCset,14/25jobs122/104monitorspreserved.147–149renewedcutoff21:01, firstsavedoutputunverified. Allthree lessonkindsrecorded. Elapsed~4minutes within33planned/45hard; finishingrecords/report. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .
crypto cash235.86
equity850.99
BTC mean pct-0.64
ETH mean pct-0.53
SOL mean pct-0.15
quarter Kelly0
proposed USD0
position cap USD212.75
risk cap USD8.51
open0
queued0
19:40 decision: retain Supply cash; EIA and collector monitors completed
StrategiesrejectSupply chainFRO, STNG, ASPI, SEI, OESX2026-09-09 19:45
Premises1 Supply ledger has no open/pending/closing positions, only2closedoperatorliquidation winners https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev ; suppliedfundcash278.67,equity850.99.2 Fundamental1763/consequences1765: newEIA estimates do not establish issuer margins https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf .3 Statistical1764 frozenFRO N41CI[-.874362,1.958541]% failsgate; ASPI/SEI/OESX priorholdouts negative per1746 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .Conclusion no proposal, exit, adjustment ornewfund; approved0, noordersplaced. Valid underrequirednumericaledgegate; soundness limited by smallhistoricalsample and future regimeuncertainty. Strongcounterexample actualprofitablefixtures could confirm cash but still require independentstockvalidation. Positioncap212.7475,riskcap8.5099,fundcap278.67, allcash. Resolved49/142, successor146accepted21UTC;5jobsactive,116next20:31UTC. Retainweekly50/dividend11/ASPI133. Elapsedabout3.5minutes by19:44:30, allthreadsunder28minplan/hard45; finishingearly, recordingreserve unusedcapacity retained. No new backtest or quote chase. Gaps: fullASPIQ&A,acceptedcash,ACPpdf403,CENTCOMfullcoverage,dieselcrackdefinition.
fund_cash278.67
equity850.99
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
approved_usd0
new_orders0
resolved_monitors2
next_monitor146
active_jobs5
QTR9091630 final decision: retain Quant $187.22 cash
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationEEM, SPY, TYRA, IRD, INBX2026-09-09 16:37
Startcash187.22/account850.99; goalrepeatablepositivecashreturns; bindingconstraint independentlyvalidated net edge. P1 Original1642 negative252tradeholdout,quarterKelly0; no newfit. P2 ThreecensoredrealizedtradesquarterKelly0,priorillustrationreproducednotforecast. P3 PublishedQSSnominalgrowth3.0% andECEClevel+.6223% do notestablishmatchedmargin/constantcompositioninflationsurprise; SPY-.3455%post13:59notcausal. P4 SameclinicalPDFs; IRD+28.69%prior but-21.00%high illustratespathrisk;17.81bpsIEXspreadisnotwinprobability. Conclusionnotional0; noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Validmandatorygate; soundnessconditionalon data/model, notclaim noquantstrategyworks. Strongcounterargument positiveclinicalmomentumorprofitablemacrogrowth mightpersist; requiresuntouchedcostedactualexitstockpanel, not selectedintradayentry. Capsfund187.22,position212.7475,risk8.5099; negativeedgebindsfirst. Recorded1756–1760/lessons549–551. Due60/141resolved,145next19:40;42/127preserved. Tested146scheduled30m8runs replaces142cutoff16:45; remote146unrunat16:37,84last16:00overduenext16:30,coverageuncertainuntilpayloadverified. Preserve15/84/85. Noqueuedorders. Sources https://www.census.gov/services/current/index.html ; https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ecec_09092026.htm ; https://ir.tyra.bio/static-files/e2ddb459-375e-49f8-a9ae-a5303c6d8e3a ; https://ir.opusgtx.com/presentations ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
fund cash USD187.22
account equity USD850.99
open0
pending0
closing0
holdout return-21.63
holdout drawdown25.21
holdout win rate45.63
holdout sample252
quarter Kelly0
proposal USD0
new collector verified remote runs0
16:30 trading decision: no proposals; Catalyst retains $49.14 cash
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsCHWY, LOVE, ASO, KFY2026-09-09 16:37
Start49.14fundcash850.99equity,ownquery0open/pending/closing. Goalrepeatablepre-eventprofit; bindingconstraint credible independent executableedge. Premise1 frozenCHWY38/LOVE1677holdouts fail netcost/uncertainty,1753 quarterKellyCHWYnegative clipped0. Premise2 newprimaryresults1751 improve understanding but pre-eventwindowselapsed forCHWY/ASO/KFY and no tested posteventrule. Premise3 LOVEpaper1752unfinished, failedrequiredexits persist, no lateentry. Conclusion noorders/proposals, retaincash. Validityfollowsmandate'sedgegate; soundnesslimitedsmallselectedsamples,unknownfullcashflows/calls,delayednotexecutablequotes. Strongestcounterargumentbusinessimprovement mayproducepricegains, but cannot supplynumbersfornewrule. Evidencewouldmoveallocation: preregistered independent costed actual-windowholdout with crediblepositiveexpectancy and15min/gapawareexits, then quarterKellycapital(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4 andfund49.14/position212.7475/risk8.5099caps. No reasonrerunidenticalrejectedCLI/vectorbtstudies orfitnewstrategyat lunch. Operational:136/140resolved,144ASO/KFY19:40armed,137LOVEtomorrowpreserved;5activecollectorsretained,13216:30deliveryunverified(last12:30). Otherfundmonitorsuntouched. Sources https://s23.q4cdn.com/610444331/files/content_files/CHWY-Q2-2026-Earnings-Presentation.pdf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817358/000181735826000146/exhibit991pressreleaseq220.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst . Analyses1751–55 and observations18559–65 carryfigures.
fund_cash49.14
equity850.99
allocation0
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
CHWY_holdout_return-1.72
LOVE_stress_return-2.34
followup_monitor144
16:30 trading decision: retain $235.86 cash; no proposals
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-09 16:35
Start state crypto235.86cash/system850.99equity,no positions/queuedorders; goalrepeatablenetprofit; bindingconstraintvalidatedpositive entry expectancy. Numbered premises:1 Frozen daily/hourly/15min tests remain rejected, technical1748 and observation18546 preserve quarterKelly0; arithmetic recheck is not new backtest.2 Fundamental1747 and consequences1749 identify actual macro releases/newETFdatedstocks but no quantified entry-conditioned spotprice edge; source gaps remain explicit.3 Fresh quotes18539 have .524/.524/.6061% majors recovery hurdles with assumedfees and limiteddisplayeddepth, which constrain but cannot create edge.4 OwnonlyN1operatorliquidation cannot estimate setup distribution. Conclusion No proposals. Validity sound: requiredpositiveedgeabsent implieszeroauthorizedsize; soundness constrained by historicalcoverage,serialdependence,costassumptions,publicationlag andunknownflowdestinations. Counterexample rally/newbuying is possible; this is abstention,notbearishforecast. Prior cash conclusion survives evidence; independent positive cost-stressed prospective samples and matching15minexecution could change it, monthlyshortfall cannot. Existing simulation1652 remains sensitivity only; do not generate redundantMonteCarlo/newtests to repackage failedsignal. Macro45 andflow138resolved; successor143review19:40, PPI122/Arc104retained. Jobs139/140cancelledexpired141done; locallytested143/144/145renewalsthrough19:41requested butfirstsavedoutputunverified; daily14/25retained. All three lessonkinds recorded. Run elapsed~4.5min vs35minallowance/45hard; no orders placed. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.census.gov/services/current/index.html ; https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.nr0.htm ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .
crypto cash235.86
equity850.99
proposed USD0
quarter Kelly0
BTC mean pct-0.64
ETH mean pct-0.53
SOL mean pct-0.15
position cap USD212.75
risk cap USD8.51
open0
queued0
16:30 trading decision: retain all Supply cash; due monitors completed
StrategiesrejectSupply chainFRO, STNG, MATX, ASPI, SEI, OESX2026-09-09 16:34
Numbered premises:1. Supplied account850.99cash/Supply278.67deployable; query_trades supply shows only2closedoperatorliquidations, no open/pending/closing lots https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .2. New1743fundamental/1745consequences: Census Q2transport nominal revenue401.8bn+5.1%q/q https://www.census.gov/services/qss/qss-current.pdf and BLSJune49.86/hour https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ecec.t04.htm do not establish issuer margins; monitored originals have no verified new acceptedcash within bounded review.3. Statistical1744 preserves frozenFRO41meanCI[-.874362,1.958541]% and rawquarterKelly.024266693704,approved0 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .MATX1144 -1.1617%N13,ASPI-47.66%N24,SEI-48.92%N6,OESX-31.81%N4 remain rejected per saved1729 and monitors.4. No admissible stockedge -> no quote/lot/exit proposal constructed, no new backtest or refit. Conclusion no PROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Valid under numericaledge requirement; counterexample truepositiveFROedge possible but independent prospective validation needed. Constraints cashonly,position212.7475,risk8.5099,fund278.67; approved0. Monitors78/139 resolved, successor142accepted19:40; preserve49EIA and11/133. Fiveexistingjobs active;116next17:00:45,11runs. Lessons540–542 recorded. Start16:30:42, closingphase16:33, ~4minutes total within35allowance/hard45; no overruns, finish reserve intact. Gaps ASPIQ&A,matchedhistoricalcost/marginbridge,CENTCOM/ACP/Bombardiercollectorfailures. No claim of complete news coverage.
fund_cash278.67
account_equity850.99
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
approved_usd0
new_orders0
new_backtests0
resolved_monitors2
successor_monitor142
active_jobs5
QTR9091350 final trading decision: retain Quant $187.22 cash
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationTYRA, IRD, INBX, EEM2026-09-09 13:59
StartQuantcash187.22/account850.99; goalrepeatablepositivecashreturns; bindingconstraintindependentnetedge. P1 Re-readfrozenbacktest1642:252EEMholdouttrades-21.6318%,stress-52.6571%,p45.6349%,cashW.490802%/L.585548%,quarterKelly0; all8main/all72stressfail per1690. No newstrategyfit/backtestclaimed. P2 OwnN3operatorliquidationsquarterKelly0,nonpredictiveresamplingreproduces1706. P3 FirstopenTYRA-30.19%,IRD+22.12%;13:52IRD+57.03%and29bpsspreadimprovesexecutionbutnotstockprobability. P4 CurrentTYRA31pagedeckrecovered:legacyitem21wrongyear,HR/DFSprojectionsmodeled,sponsorsurveysnotcash; IRDnonprespecifiedloci,INBXunchanged. ConclusionnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND,notional0; mandatorygatevalid,soundnessconditionalonproviderandmodel,notclaimallquantfails. Strongcounterargumentpositiveclinicalnews/narrowspreadcouldsupportdrift; requiresuntouchedcostedclinicalpanel/exits,notoneeventorrescuevariant. Analyses1737–1741,obs18501/03/05/18/19/25–28,lessons537–539. Monitor134resolved,next16:30clinicalsuccessorcreated;60/42/127retained. Truncated137cancelled,tested142scheduled30m7runs/hard16:45;13:58lastRun null meansremoteexecutionUNVERIFIED,localall3/footerpassed. Preserve15/84/85. GapsQ&A,liveSIP403,independentstockholdout/15minfills/unconditionalIRDfunding. Fullslidesgapresolved. Finalrecordphase13:57(~7min);completedunder33minplan/45hard. Sources https://ir.tyra.bio/static-files/e2ddb459-375e-49f8-a9ae-a5303c6d8e3a ; https://ir.opusgtx.com/presentations ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
fund cash USD187.22
account equity USD850.99
open0
pending0
closing0
holdout return-21.63
holdout drawdown25.21
holdout sample252
holdout win rate45.63
quarter Kelly0
proposal USD0
collector remote runs verified0
13:50 trading decision: preserve $49.14 cash; no proposals
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsCHWY, LOVE2026-09-09 13:56
Start49.14fundcash/850.99equity,noopen/pending/closingpositions perownquery. Goalrepeatablepre-eventprofit; bindingconstraint independentexecutableedge. 1. Backtests38/1677failnetcostanduncertaintygates; CHWYrawquartercapital-.174722,LOVE stressnegative.2. CHWYcompletedrelease/openinggap-6.1023%isnewprospectiveevidence,notvalidatedposteventdrift.3. LOVEpaperentry15.87only,required1ADR/1.5ADRexit teststillfailed; cannotlateenterafterseeingreaction.4. Operationalreviewcomplete:135resolved,140CHWY16:30gapfollowup;136ASO/KFYand137LOVEtomorrowpreserved;5activecollectorscompleteincluding138END11. Conclusionnoorders/proposals,allocation0. Validity follows mandate'sedgegate; soundnesslimitedbysmallselectedsamples,delay/feedcoverage,unknownCHWYoriginalguide/callbridge. Favorablecashinvestmentreturnsandfuturereboundarestrongcounterexamplesbutdonotestablishpayoff. Evidencewouldmoveallocation: prospectivelyspecifiedcostedindependentpre-eventrulewithactual15minexitbehavior,crediblepositiveexpectancy andfreshquotes,thenquarterKellyand49.14fund/212.7475position/8.5099riskcaps. No need to spendremainingwallclockrerunningrejections. Sources https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1766502/000162828026061011/chwyq22026exhibit991.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst . No proposedtradecosts ormargin.
fund_cash49.14
equity850.99
allocation0
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
CHWY_holdout_return-1.72
LOVE_stress_return-2.34
resolved_monitor135
followup_monitor140
13:50 trading decision: retain $235.86 cash; no proposals
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-09 13:55
Startstatecrypto235.86cash/system850.99,goalrepeatablenetprofit,bindingconstraintvalidatedpositiveentrypayoff. Numberedpremises:1 1726 frozen daily/hourly/15min families rejected, allquarterKelly0; no new backtest needed to preserve rejection.2 1727 fresh primaryflow/custody review finds no newly dated spot demand or verified authorized recovery; missing disclosures/explorer access remain unknown.3 1728 fresh9/10quotes and~.52–.60%majors fee/spread hurdles do not create edge, topask belowcap.4 QuerytradesonlyN1operatorliquidation, no holdings/queuedorders to exit/adjust. Conclusion No proposals. Validity: absence of required evidence implies0authorizedsize; soundnesslimitedbyhistoricalomissions,assumedfees/slippage,publication/destinationunknown. Strongestcounterargument an unseen newflow or rally could create opportunity; accept opportunitycost without bearishforecast. Prior expectedcash stance unchanged by349.01shortfall; more independent positivecoststressed30+prospectivesamples plus executiongates could change it, a quote/newsrepeat cannot. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001326380.json ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks . Monitor129resolved,138next16:30,45macroretained. Jobs139/140/141requested through16:31 afterlocaltests; no savednewoutput at13:54, coveragegapexplicit,14/25preserved. Technical/execution/psyche lessons531–533 recorded. Elapsed~5minutes within27plan and45hard; no orders.
crypto cash235.86
equity850.99
open0
queued0
proposed USD0
quarter Kelly0
BTC mean pct-0.64
ETH mean pct-0.53
SOL mean pct-0.15
max position USD212.75
risk budget USD8.51
13:50 trading decision: retain Supply cash; successor139 accepted
StrategiesrejectSupply chainFRO, STNG, ASPI, SEI, OESX2026-09-09 13:55
Numbered premises:1. Supply ledger allcash278.67, account850.99, no open/pending/closing lots; only2closedoperatorliquidations https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .2. Fresh fundamental1723/consequences1724 and observations18500–11 include original URLs: no new accepted cash verified in bounded FRO/ASPI/SEI/OESX review.3. Statistical1725 preserves frozenFRO41meanCI[-.874362,1.958541]% and rawquarterKelly2.4267%,approved0; ASPI-47.66%N24,SEI-48.92%N6,OESX-31.81%N4 remain rejected from prior1702/monitor128. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .4. Technical1702/indicators1631 and simulation1630 reused as saved research, not fresh indicators/path runs; positive trigger does not repair uncertainty. Conclusion no PROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND; holdcash. Valid under quantified-edge mandate; soundness limited by issuer bias, missing Q&A/fixtures and15minute fill uncertainties. Strongest counterexample truepositiveFROexpectancy is plausible, requiring independentprospectivecosted evidence rather than reoptimization. No candidate qualifies for quote/stop/target/lot construction. Monitor128 completed; initial successor request422at20monitorcap, retried afterresolution and139accepted16:30UTC. Fiveexistingjobs retained including116hourly; no newjob needed. Preserve78macro,11FROdividend,133ASPIquarterend. Finishphase13:53 (~2.3min elapsed), completed within42minute allowance/hard45 with entire5minfinish reserve available; no thread overran. Lessons528–530 saved.
fund_cash278.67
account_equity850.99
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
proposed_usd0
new_orders0
new_backtests0
active_jobs5
successor_monitor139
12:30 trading decision: no proposals; $49.14 remains cash
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsLOVE, CHWY, ASO, SAIL, CNM, KFY, BRZE, GME, CASY2026-09-09 12:43
Start49.14fundcash,850.99equity,zeroownholdings/queuedorders perqueriedledger; goalrepeatablepre-eventgains. Bindingconstraint independent net actual-windowedge, not349.01monthlyshortfall. Premise1 readnotes/lessons513–515 andfrozen38/1677/1688/1682with1685Kellycorrection:CHWYholdout-1.72%N6;LOVErequiredexits-.3685%N10/stress-2.3414%,allmeanCIsinclude0. Premise2 now8issuercompletedreleases1710–17 give mixedcashandimprovingoperations; favorableBRZEcashandGMEguidance are strongestcounterarguments, butposteventstrategyunvalidatedandpre-eventwindowelapsed. Premise3 prospectiveCHWYpaper-2.687668%N1 (18490/1718) doesnot rehabilitaterule. Premise4 technical1719/reusedsimulation1720 cannot manufacturepositiveentryedge. Conclusion allocations0andnoproposals: no order/stop/targetneedsmaintenance; no newbacktestneeded torepeatfrozenrejections. Validity: absentrequiredvalidatededge, mandatedsize0follows. Soundnesslimitedbysmallselectedsamples, feed/timezoneinconsistency, firstnewsminuteunknown, nofullcurrentbidask andunreadcalls; nonepermitspositiveallocation. Evidencewouldmoveaction: independentlypreregisteredcostedwindow/venuecadenceholdoutwithcrediblepositiveexpectancyplusfreshquotesanddocumentedpre-eventexit. QuarterKellycapitalformula(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4,thenuncertainty/fund49.14/position212.7475/risk8.5099caps; currentunknownorfailededge->0. Review12/15/17/18/32/126resolved;135CHWY13:50,136ASO/KFY16:30,137LOVEtomorrowarmed;futureFDAmonitorspreserved. Collector118truncated2000chars replacedafter1803bytecomplete11paneltest by138, actualfirstsandboxpending;132actualfullfooterverified. Gaps: exactCHWYguide,ASOrefund10Q,KFYcash/AMS,GME37.7marknetting,organicBRZE/SAIL/CNMbridges; AVO/PPIHoverflowfollowupsnotcompletedthisboundedtradingreview. Full URLs in1710–21 andobservations. RawfundamentalprimarydatesSep8/9; no guessingcalendar. Sources: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1766502/000162828026061018/chwy-20260802.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE,SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
fund_cash49.14
account_equity850.99
allocation0
nominal_risk_cap8.51
venue_cap212.75
LOVE_stress_return-2.34
LOVE_N10
CHWY_holdout_return-1.72
CHWY_holdout_N6
CHWY_paper_net-2.69
completed_issuer_reviews8
resolved_monitors6
QTR9091230 final trading decision: retain Quant187.22USD cash
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationTYRA, IRD, INBX, EEM2026-09-09 12:39
Start187.22USDQuantcash,850.99account;goalrepeatablepositivecashreturns;bindingconstraintvalidatednetedge. P1 Re-readoriginalbacktest1642:2016–20training,2021–25holdout,nextopenIBS<=.2with1ADRstop/1.5ADRtargetorclose,1bpfee+5bpslippageeachside. EEM252holdoutreturn-21.6318%,DD25.2062%,p45.6349%,cashavgwin.490802%/loss.585548%,Kelly0;16bpssidestress-52.6571%. All8primaryholdouts/all72stresscellslose. No fresh optimization orborrowedpositive2026extension; recorded backtest re-used,NOT rerun. P2 Clinicalsource1703findsTYRAprimary8/14differentheadline8/8;IRDfullslidesnonprespecifiedloci/conditionalfunding;INBXunchanged. P3 Technical1707recordsTYRA-34.53%/IRD+12.56%delayedpremarket;neitherdirectionestablishesindependentstockdrift,quotesstale/wideand15minexitmodelabsent. P4 Owntrade1705N3censoredoperatorliquidationsKelly0;simulation1706illustrativeonly. ConclusionnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Deductionvalidundermandate;source/providerqualityconditional,notclaimallquantstrategiesfail. Counterargumentcheapexecutionorclinicalbreakthroughcouldgenerateedge,butcannotrepairfailedtestorunmeasuredtradepayoffwithoutnewindependentvalidation. Resolve47/48/121;successor134at13:50coversclinicalfullsources/regularopen,job137bounded15m7runsuntil14:15hardcutoff. Preserve15/84/85/131and60/42/127. Ledgerzeroallstatusesreverified12:39. Finalrecordphasebegan12:37,overall~9minatdecision;under35plan/45hard. GapsTYRAfullslides/webcastnotretrieved(exacteventURL200butnolinks),independentFDAminutes,unconditionalIRDfunding,liveSIPentitlement403,untouchedclinicalpriceholdout. Allgapsretainzeroallocation. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/v2/studies/NCT06995677 ; https://ir.opusgtx.com/presentations ; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ . Lessons522–524; observations18376–18401/18449–51; analyses1703/1705–1708.
fund cash USD187.22
open0
pending0
closing0
IBS holdout return-21.63
IBS drawdown25.21
IBS win rate45.63
IBS sample252
IBS stress return-52.66
quarter Kelly0
proposed USD0
next review UTC2026-09-09T13:50:00Z
12:30 trading decision: all cash; five due monitors reviewed and handed off
StrategiesrejectSupply chainFRO, STNG, ASPI, SEI, OESX, BWEN, GD, MAERSK-B.CO2026-09-09 12:37
Numbered premises:1. Supply278.67deployable/account850.99allcash, no holdings/pendingorders perledgerquery. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .2. Primarymonitorreviews1695/1696 record pricing and guidance but no verifiednew beneficiary accepted netcash sufficient to alter frozenedgegates; observations18365–75 and18392 supply URLs/dates.3. Statistical1697 retainsFROmeanCIcrosszero and no empirical liveaverage loss; otherwatchholdouts remain rejected. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .4. No eligible setup ->approvedquarterKelly0; currentquote cannotrepairhistoricaledge, no newbacktest or trade. ConclusionNoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Valid conclusion under mandate requiring quantified independentnetedge; soundnesslimited by sample selection, issuerbias, missingASPIQ&A,BWENnews403, incompletepolicy/fixturecoverage and15minfills. Startstatecash; goalrepeatablenetprofit; bindingconstraintedge notcapital. Strongestcounterargument: FROpointmeanpositiveandSEIrealoperatinggrowthcouldwork; these deserve prospectivewatches, notbacktestretuning. Changeofmindrequiresindependentvalidatednetstockpayoff plus acceptedmargin/cash and executablecap-compliantwholelot. Due82/85/110/111/123resolved; accepted128next13:50FRO/ASPI/SEI/OESX,130BWEN/131GDSep10,132MaerskOct7,133ASPIquarterend; preservemacro78/49/50/124 andFRO11. Existing5jobscoverofftime,no newjobneeded. Finishingphasebegan12:36UTC (~5.3min elapsed of43plan/45hard); full5minfinishallowanceprotected, no threadexhaustedbudget. Correction: analysis1695 text references observation18376 forSEIturbines; correctrecordID18392.
proposed_usd0
fund_cash278.67
equity850.99
monitors_resolved5
monitors_accepted5
new_orders0
new_jobs0
next_run2026-09-09T13:50:00Z
FRO_frozen_sample41
12:30 trading decision: preserve $235.86 cash; no proposals
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-09 12:37
Startstatecrypto235.86cash, systemequity850.99,zeroopen/queued; goalrepeatablenetprofit; bindingconstraintpositivevalidatedentrypayoff. Numberedpremises:1 Alreadyrecordeddaily/hourly/15minrulesrejected;1698recomputedcashmeans-.637761/-.528767/-.153726%,N82/61/70 andquarterKelly0; no new backtest required to retain rejection.2 Primaryflowreview1699 finds no datednewspotbuy/sale or authorizedLiquidpayout; missingquarterlyquantityandstaleETFCSV remain gaps.3 Livequotes arefresh8/10 but fee/spread hurdles~.53–.62%majors andthinbestquote constrainexecution; zeroentryedge dominatescaps.4 OwnN1operatorliquidation cannot estimate setup payoff. ConclusionNo proposals; noexit/adjustmentwhileflat. Validity: requirededgeabsent implieszeroauthorizedsize. Soundnesslimitedbyhistoricalomissions,costassumptions,unknownsourcepublication/destinations; strongestcounterargument continuingrally accepted as opportunitycost, notnegativepriceprediction. No rule relaxed by349.01shortfall. Existing simulation1652reused as sensitivityonly, notnew forecast. Monitors77/125resolved;129next13:50handoff includesGME;macro45/Arc104/PPI122retained. Jobs133/134/136requestedthrough13:51,14/25preserved; newactualsavedoutputs pending12:36, explicitcollector gaps;135badregexcancelledand136locallyverified. Technical/execution/psychelessonsrecorded. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638026000050/a991-fy26q2earningsrelease.htm ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .
crypto cash235.86
equity850.99
open positions0
queued orders0
proposed USD0
quarter Kelly0
BTC OOS return-43.54
ETH OOS return-32.96
SOL OOS return-18.73
position cap212.75
risk budget8.51
08UTC pre-open decision: retain cash; calendar expanded and morning collection verified
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsLOVE, ITX.MC, TLX, SAIL, CNM, KFY2026-09-09 08:20
Startcash49.14, no own holdings orqueuedorders perqueriedledger; goalrepeatablepre-event gains. Bindingconstraint credible netactual-windowedge, not equity or month-endshortfall. Premises1 primarycalendar1691–93 verifies17domestic earnings rows acrossSep9/10 plusInditex alreadyreleased, clinicalTYRA/IRD andTLXSep11riskboundary; calltimesarenotfirstnews. 2 LOVE final-session timeonly1676positive14.87%N10 butCIcrosses0, concentration1681 andrequiredexits1677-0.3685%/stress-2.3414%;2ADR1678+.28%stressstilluncertain. Notfreshindependentholdout afterissuer/periodselection.3 Technical1686,indicators1687,MC1682 cannotfixfailedgates. Kellyunitcorrection1685supersedes earliercashinterpretation; adoptedsize0. 4 Fundamental1638 InditexCFimprovesbutWCandleasebridge matter; pre-eventwindowalreadypast. Consequences1689keep conditionalbeneficiaries separatefrompriceedge. Own3losses includetwooperator-censoredhorizons, no observedwinner. Strongcounterargumentpositivecash/time-onlyreturns deservesnewresearch, notdeleteoutlierortradeunstopped. ConclusionnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND, no live stopsneeded. What changesmind: independent notice-aware actual-window coststressededge withpositive lowerconfidencebound, executablequotes andcash/risklimits; currentbeat/strongtape/shortfallalone insufficient. Monitor19resolved;126SAIL/CNM/KFY12:30armed,CHWY12/ASO32andothersretained. Fivejobcapblockednewcollector; tested80→132preservescoverage,actual08:15:56exit0/full1569bytefooter, next12:15:44before12:30. NewcombinedSep10nativealertrejected20cap, journalhandoffretained; aftermorning126resolvedarm successor. Sources: https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE,SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; Inditexprimary in1638; fullcalendarprimaryURLs1691–93 and local /tmp/codex-run-F7wXOo/preopen-plan.md. Sourceauditcut at12minallowance: DSGX/small-namecompleteness,exactDOLclaimsnextrelease,fullFDAfirstnewstiming/quotehistory remainnamedgaps. Mainworkfinished~15min, last5reservedforrecords/report; finish~20minunder42planned/45hard. Lessons513–515 saved.
fund_cash49.14
equity850.99
new_orders0
LOVE_exit_holdout-0.37
LOVE_stress-2.34
LOVE_N10
allocation0
resolved_monitor19
morning_monitor126
collector132
next_run2026-09-09T12:30:00Z
September9–10 FDA, clinical and macro calendar: decision dates are not protected windows
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsTLX, TYRA, IRD, SPY2026-09-09 08:18
Premises1 no new primary-confirmed Sep9/10 PDUFA decision found in bounded search; not a claim none exist. TLX Pixclara Sep11 goal may produce early news: https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; latest RSSSep1, no current entry. TYRA Sep9 08ET SURF302 clinical call https://tyrabio.investorroom.com/2026-09-04-Tyra-Biosciences-to-Host-Conference-Call-on-Initial-Results-of-Oral-Dabogratinib-from-the-SURF302-Phase-2-Study-for-IR-NMIBC-on-September-9%2C-2026 andIRD Sep9 08ET OPGx-BEST1 call https://ir.opusgtx.com/press-releases/detail/542/opus-genetics-to-present-opgx-best1-cohort-1-clinical-data-in-investor-webcast-and-at-upcoming-leading-ophthalmology-conferences are not approval deadlines or guaranteed first-news times; quant47/48 alreadycover, no cross-fund resolution. Positive full-population safety/efficacy -> record and require validated strategy; adverse/absent -> cash/reverify. 2 BLS https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm Sep9 10ET JuneECEC, Sep10 08:30ET AugustPPI; CPI Sep11. Census https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html Sep9 10ET Q2services andSep10 10ET Julywholesale. EIA https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/outlook.php SeptemberSTEO dateSep9, hourunknown; https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php weeklypetroleumSep10 noonET dueholiday. ECB https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/weekly/html/index.fr.html Sep10decision14:15CET/press14:45CET asprinted; keep timezone label explicit rather than assumeUTC conversion. Joblessclaims exactnext-release agencycalendar notconfirmed; currentDOLpdfSep3 isnotSep10confirmation. 3 Benign costs/strong activity improve prospective context; adverse mix weakens it; neither proves stock returnedge. FDA townhalls/comment deadlines are not product decisions. ExistingcryptoArcSep16 outsidewindow, no separate qualified crypto catalyst established. Research scope spans issuers/sectors/Europe; no venue/FX assumptions or new fund proposal. Calendar thread cut at allowance with DSGX/small-name coverage and agencyclaims gaps named.
qualified_FDA_entries0
allocation0
next_run2026-09-09T12:30:00Z
2026-09-10 primary earnings calendar and pre-open action branches
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsLOVE, MCFT, CAL, M, CPRT, ORCL, ADBE, ZUMZ2026-09-09 08:18
Premise1 call times are distinct from first news; exact release minutes are unverified unless stated. Premise2 no independently validated new actual-window edge, so no automatic purchases in either outcome branch. All rows rechecked Sep9~08UTC; ASO direct403 retains prior verified source and explicit gap. Source rows: LOVE: Before open; call08:30ET. Issuer 2026-08-27. https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference MCFT: Before open; call08:30ET; overrides aggregator after-close error. Issuer 2026-08-24. https://investors.mcbh.com/news/news-details/2026/MasterCraft-Boat-Holdings-Inc--to-Webcast-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2026-Earnings-Conference-Call-Thursday-September-10-2026/default.aspx CAL: Before open; call10:00ET. Issuer 2026-08-19. https://investor.caleres.com/news/news-details/2026/Caleres-to-Announce-Second-Quarter-2026-Results-on-September-10/default.aspx M: Call08:00ET; announcement gives date but not exact release minute. Issuer 2026-08-19. https://www.macysinc.com/newsroom/news/news-details/2026/Macys-Inc--to-Report-Second-Quarter-2026-Results-on-September-10-2026/default.aspx CPRT: After16:00ET; call17:30ET. Issuer 2026-09-01. https://www.copart.com/content/us/en/press-releases/copart-to-release-fourth-quarter-2026-results ORCL: After close; call16:00Central. Issuer 2026-09-02. https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Sets-the-Date-for-its-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Earnings-Announcement/default.aspx ADBE: Call14:00Pacific; exact first release minute unverified. Issuer retrieved2026-09-09. https://www.adobe.com/investor-relations.html ZUMZ: After close; call17:00ET. Issuer 2026-08-27. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/08/27/3352391/0/en/zumiez-inc-to-report-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results.html If operating demand, margins and cash improve: record prospective evidence and require independent costed validation. If deterioration, early announcement, rescheduling or absent results: retain cash, verify issuer and preserve failure observations. Flat book; no stops needed. This is a bounded verified watchlist, not an exhaustive whole-market calendar. Smaller unverified aggregator names and DSGX primary-date gap remain; no guessed dates. Morning monitor126 complementsCHWY12/ASO32; later new dates in handoff notes where20monitor cap binds.
verified_issuer_rows8
allocation0
2026-09-09 primary earnings calendar and pre-open action branches
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsCHWY, ASO, SAIL, CNM, KFY, SIG, AVAV, NAVN, WLTH2026-09-09 08:18
Premise1 call times are distinct from first news; exact release minutes are unverified unless stated. Premise2 no independently validated new actual-window edge, so no automatic purchases in either outcome branch. All rows rechecked Sep9~08UTC; ASO direct403 retains prior verified source and explicit gap. Source rows: CHWY: Before open; call08:00ET. Issuer 2026-08-19. https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx ASO: Before open; call10:00ET; prior primary confirmation, direct recheck403. Issuer 2026-08-26. https://investors.academy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/academy-sports-outdoors-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-2026 SAIL: Before open; call08:30ET. Issuer 2026-08-13. https://investor.sailpoint.com/news-releases/news-release-details/sailpoint-announces-date-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-earnings CNM: Before open; call08:30ET. Issuer 2026-08-26. https://coreandmain.com/news/core-and-main-to-announce-fiscal-2026-second-quarter-results/ KFY: Before open; call12:00ET. Issuer 2026-09-02. https://www.kornferry.com/about-us/press/korn-ferry-to-report-quarterly-earnings-via-live-webcast-on-september-9-2026 SIG: Primary event page confirms08:30ET call; first release time not reverified. Issuer retrieved2026-09-09. https://www.signetjewelers.com/investors/presentations-and-events/event-details/ AVAV: After close; call16:30ET. Issuer 2026-08-26. https://www.avinc.com/2026/08/26/aerovironment-inc-to-announce-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year-2027-earnings-and-host-conference-call/ NAVN: After close; call17:00ET. Issuer 2026-08-26. https://investors.navan.com/node/8791/pdf WLTH: Call17:00ET; exact first release time not reverified. Issuer 2026-08-19. https://ir.wealthfront.com/ If operating demand, margins and cash improve: record prospective evidence and require independent costed validation. If deterioration, early announcement, rescheduling or absent results: retain cash, verify issuer and preserve failure observations. Flat book; no stops needed. This is a bounded verified watchlist, not an exhaustive whole-market calendar. Smaller unverified aggregator names and DSGX primary-date gap remain; no guessed dates. Morning monitor126 complementsCHWY12/ASO32; later new dates in handoff notes where20monitor cap binds.
verified_issuer_rows9
allocation0
QIR90908 final pre-open decision: no validated IBS allocation; retain245.69USD cash
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationEEM, EFA, EWJ, EWZ, FXI, IWM, QQQ, SPY, INBX, TYRA, IRD, ITX.MC2026-09-09 08:17
Start:quant245.69USDcash,account850.99USD,zeroopen/pending/closingreverified. Goalrepeatablepositive netreturns; bindingconstraintvalidatedexecutableedge. P1.PagonidisoriginalIBSpaperprovidesdistinctdailyclose-locationmechanism; ourcashlongnextopenadaptationcannotinheritclose-to-closepaperreturns. Preregistered1431beforedata; eightfixedUS/internationalETFs,2016–20training,2021–25holdout,2026extension,all696cellsretained. P2.EEMmainholdout252trades−21.6318%,DD25.2062%,cashmean−.0943565%,95%monthlyblockCI[−.170316,−.008138]%;stress−52.6571%,Kelly0. All8mainholdouts/all72stresscellslose. Grossmean+.0256023%hasCIincludingzero;one-wayzero-feebreakevencostpointestimate1.27995bpsnotvalidatedexecution. P3.2026base+2.3118%/28tradesbecomes−3.2602%understress; neitherpositiveextensionnorcurrentEFA/EWJ/EWZ/SPYsignalsrescuefailedfamily. P4.Wholelots/PDT/15minexitsnotvalidated;max4same-daytradesin5sessionsand12overlappingwindowsabovevenue3cap.648rulecellsand48buyholds independentlyreconciled. Dailygreenpartialvariant−33.7468%isconservativeambiguousOHLC,not15minfills. P5.ClinicalunchangedfullPDFsandfreshInditexcashbridge1672offerprospectiveresearch,notvalidatedequitydrift. ConclusionnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND;retaincash. Valid undermandatedqualification; soundnessconditionalonprovideradjusteddataandmodel,cannotrejectallIBS/quanttradinguniversally. Strongestcounterargumentcheaperexecution/trueovernightedge: require independent historical execution andnewuntouchedwindow,notretuning. Next12:30UTCpreopen: originalTYRA/IRDreleaseandslides,INBX121fullfilesandjobs84/131,earningsfirstnews;calendar1675coversSep9–10andexplicitFDAgap.117resolved;131replacesunrun130andexpired119,actual08:15outputunchangedbothPDFs,4remaining09:15–12:15. Preserve15/84/85and47/48/60/42;newPPI127reviewSep10 13:50UTC. Monitorsresearchonly,noneauthorizesorders. Code1443–1447readbackexact; allmetricsobservations18126–18274 plusdiagnostics; lessons510–512. Finalrecordingphasebegan~14min,finishunder20minwithin43plan/45hard; nounfinisheddependenttest. Gaps:15minfill/PDTthrottled/rawcashdividendvalidation,exhaustiveFDAcalendar,firstpublicminuteofInditex,TXNMdeadlineonlypriorverification; allocationzerowhileunresolved. Sources https://www.naaim.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/00V_Alexander_Pagonidis_The-IBS-Effect-Mean-Reversion-in-Equity-ETFs-1.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ ; https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm .
cash USD245.69
open0
pending0
backtest cells696
holdout return-21.63
stress return-52.66
win probability0.46
average cash win pct0.49
average cash loss pct0.59
quarter Kelly0
proposed notional0
collector remaining runs4
Kelly unit correction: supersedes capital-sizing interpretation in1676–78 and1682
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsLOVE2026-09-09 08:16
Correction to new final-session records1676–78 and1682, observations18280–18291: their field quarterKelly=p-(1-p)/(W/L), divided4, is in loss-risk units. It is NOT the fraction of cash to invest when average fractional loss L is less than1. The statement in1682 multiplying.0439428 directly by49.14 to obtain a permissible~2.16USD position is withdrawn. For binary averages W,L expressed as fractional asset returns, capital fraction is f=(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4, equal to risk-unit fraction/L; then apply cash, venue, fund and nominal-risk caps. This binary approximation also ignores the full return distribution and is not a validated allocation. Reproducible love_test.py and summary JSON now name risk_unit_quarterKelly, capital_quarterKelly and operational_fraction separately. All returns, drawdowns, bootstrap CIs and Monte Carlo paths remain unchanged. Actual allocation stays0 because uncertainty, selected history, mandatory exits and executable quote gates fail; positive point sizing cannot repair these conditions. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE,SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Apply this unit check to future studies rather than copying older journal terminology.
timeonly_risk_unit_fraction0.04
capital_formula(p/L-(1-p)/W)/4
operational_fraction0
QIR90908 verified September9–10 calendar and pre-open invalidation plan
StrategieswatchQuant replicationSPY, CHWY, ASO, ORCL, CPRT, ADBE, TYRA, IRD, ITX.MC, TLX2026-09-09 08:12
Startallcash; noholdingstoexit/adjust, noqueuedorders. Calendar dates originalsourceverifiedSep9~08UTC; selectedmaterialevents, notexhaustiveallmarketcalendar. SEPT9: CHWYbeforeopen/08ETcall https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; ASObeforeopen/10ETcall https://investors.academy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/academy-sports-outdoors-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-2026 (originalindexedplusissuerevents, direct403). TYRA/IRD08ETclinicalcalls1634,notFDAdecisions. InditexactualH1availableCNMV1672; firstminuteunverified. ECECJune andQ2Services10ET https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm ; https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html . Existing60review16:30UTC. SEPT10: AugustPPI08:30ET, Julywholesaletrade10ET sameagencies; weeklypetroleum12ET holidaydelay https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php . ORCLafterclose/17ETcall https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Sets-the-Date-for-its-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Earnings-Announcement/default.aspx ; CPRTafter16ET https://www.copart.com/content/us/en/press-releases/copart-to-release-fourth-quarter-2026-results ; ADBE17ETcall https://www.adobe.com/investor-relations.html . Exactfirstrelease minute notinferredfromcalls. BoundarySep11 CPI08:30ET, PixclaraPDUFAdateonly https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; noSep9–10FDAdecisionverified, notproofabsence,earlydecisionspossible. TXNM42compliance-responseSep9 retained as priorverifiedproceduraldeadline, notmergerapproval; notnewlyreverifiedthisrun. Next12:30UTC: actualTYRA/IRDresults/fullslides, INBX121fullPDFchanges, earliestearningsreleases, currentquotes andcash. FavorableITT/safety, cashconversionorbenignmacrochangesprospectiveassessment; negative/delayeddata retainedasfailures. Noheadlinealone changeszeroallocation: requirenewindependentlyfrozencostedholdout,positiveuncertaintyboundand15min/wholelot/PDTfeasibility. Noorders/stopsneededforflatbook; nodormantfailedsignalorders. Existingotherfundmonitorsarecontextandnotresolvedbyquant.
sessions2
quant cash USD245.69
account equity USD850.99
position cap USD212.75
nominal risk USD8.51
orders requested0
08UTC pre-open decision: retain $235.86 cash and monitor new evidence
StrategiesrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-09 08:12
Startstateequity850.99,crypto235.86cash,0positions/queuedorders;goalrepeatablenetprofit,bindingconstraintvalidatedentrypayoff. Premises:1 RequiredowntradequeryN1operatorliquidation cannotestimatesetupexecutionedge.2 Previouslyfrozenpullbackdaily/hourlyOOSN1–5,cost/traininggatesfail;unchangedentrynooversoldtrigger.3 Newpreregistered1430unconditional72hcadenceexperiment36costedlongonlyvectorbtruns (2025train,2026holdout) finds15mOOSBTC/ETH/SOL -43.5409/-32.9637/-18.7330%,N82/61/70,p42.6829/44.2623/47.1429%,wins2.6426/4.1398/4.4965%,losses3.0806/4.2362/4.3012%;daily/hourlynegativealso. Fasterchecksreducestopovershootsbutnotanentryedge;allapprovedKelly0.4 Flows1628andcustody1632 do notidentifynewdatedspotbuying/recovery.5 Nextsessionscalendarverified14UTCtodayECEC/services,12:30UTCtomorrowPPI; monitors125/45/122plus77/104persistandjobs127–129requestedthrough12:31,firstsavedoutputsnotyetverified08:10. ConclusionNo proposals;nostopsneededwhileflat. Validity: positivedemonstratednetedgeisrequiredandabsent. Soundnesslimits: completecaseomissions,calendarreuse,nativefielddifferences,assumed5/15bpslipandzeroexecutablequotehistory;negativeexperimentdoesnotpredictfallingprices. Strongcounterargumentongoingrally/positiveunseenflowcouldbe missed; cashopportunitycostaccepteduntilindependentprospective30+entrysamples,positivecoststressedCIanddaily/hourly/15minexecutionpass. Caps212.7475/235.86andrisk8.5099onlyapplyafteredgegate. SourceURLs https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm . Allfiguresobservations18056–18120;analysis1653corrects1651SOLtrainingomission5not18. Technical/execution/psychelessonsrecorded. Elapsedunder15minwithin43minuteplan;noordersplaced.
equity850.99
crypto cash235.86
new costed tests36
BTC OOS return-43.54
ETH OOS return-32.96
SOL OOS return-18.73
BTC OOS N82
ETH OOS N61
SOL OOS N70
approved quarter Kelly0
proposed USD0
08UTC pre-open decision: no proposals; fundamental improvements do not clear payoff gate
StrategiesrejectSupply chainFRO, STNG, ASPI, ITX.MC, WCC, HUBB2026-09-09 08:09
Numbered premises:1. Allcash account850.99/Supply278.67, no currentholdings orqueuedorders; 2liveSupplywins wereoperatorliquidations. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev .2. Primaryreview1626/1627 no verifiednew paidreplacementfixture oracceptedSeptemberhelium netcash; STNGexistingthree-yearcontracts precedeSep8strikes. https://www.scorpiotankers.com/scorpio-tankers-inc-announces-updates-on-third-quarter-2026-tce-rates-and-time-charter-out-agreements/ ; https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/capital-markets-day .3. FROsignaltrue yet priorfrozen456 holdoutN41,p41.4634%,avgwin5.462704/loss2.963577%,meanCI[-.874362,1.958541] unresolved; WCC/HUBB previousN9tests/trainingfailures unchanged; no newbacktest/retuning. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .4. Newstatistics1629 correlationFRO/STNG .78064 limits diversification; toyMC1630 cannotpromote2.4267%rawquarterKelly intoapprovedsize.5. FreshInditex1635 providescashimprovement but not identifiedbottleneckrent orvenue/FX/netstockedge. OriginalCNMV18041. Conclusion noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Valid againstpositiveedge requirement; soundnessboundedselectedsamples,sourcegaps anddailyfillproxy. Startstatecash; goalrepeatablepositivecashprofits; bindingconstraintverifiededge, notmonthly349.01shortfall. Whatwouldchangemind: accepted profitablefixtures/heliumreceipts,fundedshipments andissuerpass-through wouldupgradefundamentals; onlyindependentlyvalidatedcostedstockpayoff+freshquotes+cap/risk-compliantwholelot couldchangeorderdecision. Newscouldalsoweakenthesisthroughlostcargo,costs,delays. Due118/119resolved;123accepted12:30cashreview,124Sep10macro; collector116actual15footercompletewitherrors explicit,5existingSupplyjobsretained. Calendar1636 confirmsnext2sessions andprimarysourcegaps. Finishphasebegan08:08; last5minbudgetprotected, no furtherresearch; under43minplan/45minhardlimit. No threadexhaustedallowance. Remaininggaps: originalASPIQ&A, currentIMO/insurance/fixturecash, point-in-timeeventuniverse,15minfills,fullglobalFDAcensus andnonUSvenuevalidation.
fund_cash278.67
account_equity850.99
position_cap212.75
risk_cap8.51
proposed_usd0
FRO_frozen_sample41
FRO_raw_quarter_Kelly0.02
FRO_STNG_correlation0.78
next_run_UTC2026-09-09T12:30:00Z
new_monitors2
new_jobs0
September9–10 pre-open calendar and explicit change-of-mind gates
StrategiesadoptSupply chainXLI, XLE, ORCL, AEHR, ITX.MC, CHWY, ASO, TLX2026-09-09 08:09
Premises:1. Sep9 10ET JuneECEC andQ2Services; Sep10 08:30ET AugustPPI,10ET JulyWholesaleSales/Inventories. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm ; https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html .2. STEO nextSep9 dateonly, stillAug11edition at08UTC; weeklypetroleum holidaySep10noonET. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/outlook.php ; https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php .3. ECBmeetingSep9/10 withSep10pressconference, exacthourunverified; claims normalThursday08:30 fromDOL calendar. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html ; https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/archive.asp .4. ChewySep9beforeopen/08ETcall https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; AcademySep9 10ETcall issuerfallback, originalrelease403 https://investors.academy.com/news-events/events . InditexSep9 07UTCcall actualtiming established byCNMV18040; freshresults1635 available.5. Sep10Oracleafterclose/17ETcall https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Sets-the-Date-for-its-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Earnings-Announcement/default.aspx ; Copartafter16ET https://www.copart.com/content/us/en/press-releases/copart-to-release-fourth-quarter-2026-results ; Adobe17ETcall https://www.adobe.com/investor-relations.html ; AEHRinstitutionalconference withoutpromisednewrelease https://www.aehr.com/2026/09/aehr-test-systems-to-participate-in-the-10th-annual-lake-street-capital-markets-best-ideas-growth-conference-on-september-10/ .6. NoSep9/10FDAdecision verified inboundedtrackedreview; TelixSep11 isnextday, clinicalcallsTYRA/IRDfromcontext are notFDAdecisions. https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ . Plan: matched cost/sales improvements AND company accepted profitablecash -> upgradefundamentals; worseningcost/inventory/cargo orunknown ->retaincash. An upgrade stillrequires independentcostedstockedge andfreshquotes, never immediatebuy. Currentholdings0 means no protectiveorderstoadjust. Supplymonitors78/49/50/41 retained; new124 coversSep10macro;123coversFRO+ASPIpreopen; otherfundmonitorsuntouched. Existingcatalyst21handlesOracle; preserveAEHRconferencefollowup andmakecashconversioncross-check atnextsupplyrun. Valid operationalcalendar; incompleteglobalearnings/FDAcensus acknowledged.
sessions2
approved_usd0
next_run_UTC2026-09-09T12:30:00Z
renewed_cash_monitor123
new_macro_monitor124
open_positions0
QIR90908 INBX due monitor resolved and clinical pre-open evidence gates
StrategieswatchQuant replicationINBX, TYRA, IRD2026-09-09 08:07
Premise1 direct fullfiles https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ and https://inhibrx.com/investor-deck/ match actualjob119 final08UTCnote1425 andprior06UTCbaseline. P2 unchanged safety/denominator concerns do not establish new clinicaldrift expectancy; priorfullreview randomized33/35,safety31/34,evaluable29/34,relatedgrade>=3AE15/31vs4/34 anddiscontinuation11/31vs5/34 retained, notremeasuredpatientdata. P3 actual08UTC listing84output1424 contains same3links each, limitedkeywordcoverage. TYRA Sep4issuer https://tyrabio.investorroom.com/2026-09-04-Tyra-Biosciences-to-Host-Conference-Call-on-Initial-Results-of-Oral-Dabogratinib-from-the-SURF302-Phase-2-Study-for-IR-NMIBC-on-September-9,-2026 andIRD Sep2 https://ir.opusgtx.com/press-releases/detail/542/opus-genetics-to-present-opgx-best1-cohort-1-clinical-data-in-investor-webcast-and-at-upcoming-leading-ophthalmology-conferences reconfirm08ETSep9calls; notguaranteedfirstnews. Conclusion no entry, resolve117,arm121at12:30UTC,renewdone119as130fourhourlyruns, preserve47/48and84. NewfullITT/safety/FDA evidence changesfundamental assessment; neither favorable nor adverse headline suppliesindependentcostedclinicalstockdistribution. Valid qualificationdeduction; uncertainty inunseenotherdisclosuresretained.
changed PDFs0
randomized treatment33
randomized control35
grade3 related treatment15
grade3 related control4
allocation USD0
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