Stats

Edge test: S2.85 Oct16 P2.5 .15 Sep9 costs$15; requires -17.543860%,2/8=25%; medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep23AMC, defaultSep22exit. https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx 1. Use fixed previous close to first post-release daily close horizon; no hindsight intraday lows. 2. Primary issuer scheduling originals and each daily response saved in observations; SIP adjustment=all daily bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Accessible historical schedules selected without return filtering; SFIX lacks Dec2024/Mar2025 and TCOM lacks verified Aug2024/May2025 timing, so sample is incomplete, not representative by assertion. 3. Current catalog closes checked against delayed option-bars; neither is an executable ask or synchronized quote. Coverage is below40% and no documented actual-option expected payout>=3x. Hurdle exceeds absolute median, so no hold-through exception. ExpiryOct16 exceeds event by>=7days. Counterexample: residual option time value can pay despite absent intrinsic coverage, but no costed history establishes it. Valid conditional rejection; soundness limited by stale marks, sparse samples and regime changes. Required evidence to reconsider: nearer affordable current contract with >=40% directional coverage or documented3xexpectedpayoff, then costs/exits. No order.

Edge test: S3.05 Oct16 P2.5 .10 Sep9 costs$10; requires -21.311475%, 0/12 closes; median absolute10.350471%. Sep15 08ET release, last-session exitSep14. https://investors.verabradley.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-bradley-inc-announces-reporting-date-second-quarter-1 1. Use fixed previous close to first post-release daily close horizon; no hindsight intraday lows. 2. Primary issuer scheduling originals and each daily response saved in observations; SIP adjustment=all daily bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Accessible historical schedules selected without return filtering; SFIX lacks Dec2024/Mar2025 and TCOM lacks verified Aug2024/May2025 timing, so sample is incomplete, not representative by assertion. 3. Current catalog closes checked against delayed option-bars; neither is an executable ask or synchronized quote. Coverage is below40% and no documented actual-option expected payout>=3x. Hurdle exceeds absolute median, so no hold-through exception. ExpiryOct16 exceeds event by>=7days. Counterexample: residual option time value can pay despite absent intrinsic coverage, but no costed history establishes it. Valid conditional rejection; soundness limited by stale marks, sparse samples and regime changes. Required evidence to reconsider: nearer affordable current contract with >=40% directional coverage or documented3xexpectedpayoff, then costs/exits. No order.

Premises:1 Frozen252daystress holdout190trades,38.4211%wins,averagewin8.2380%/loss3.4970%,mean1.01171%,monthclusterCI[-.04849,2.13027]%; training48mean-.51159% andhalfKelly0.2 Holdout1933dailyreturns OLS vsalignedSPY beta0.41960102253097215,correlation0.6300643543775979,dailyintercept0.000012204135180099584; annualsimpleintercept0.3075442065385095% isdescriptive, noHACsignificance/causalalpha claim. Timestampstrings normalizedtoUTC beforejoin; invalidzeroSPYearlierdiscarded.3 Recent60day XLE/XLKcorr-.253247,XLK/XLI.542399; correlationcanchange undergapstress.4 OwnledgerN3win33.33%,mean-.860974%,avgwin7.93994/avgloss5.26143%,realized-$1.04605. Alloperatorliquidations, no stopped/targetedtrade orarrivalquote; cannotestimateplannedhorizonedges,stopprobabilityorexecutionslippagefromthatrecord. Conclusion livehalfKelly0fromprimarytraining; holdoutplugin6.1405%risk isnotlicensedconfidence orvenuesizing. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_trades fundquant Sep1102UTC; research/inference.json; analyses2403–10.

Premises:1 Exchangecurrentroster13176testissuesremoved; SIPsnapshot132batches403. HistoricalSIP/allSep8–10recovery12704symbols,12128currenttwo-barrows;384format-excludedpreferred/warrants,88othermissing and576insufficient/stale rows. Allrecoverybatches200; cannot claim everyUSlistingfullycovered.2 Price>=5/daydollarvolume>=10m/nonETF leaves2442; allhistoricalrequestscompleted,2351have>=253bars;91insufficient. Full2351rank/vol/ADVmetrics archived89observations, seven significantdigits, fullprecisionCSV retained. TopAXTI2326.97%,SNDK1702.65%,WOLF1556.04%12-1momentum; dailyleadersTNON117.21/DBGI81.07/PCLA31.00% notsamefactor.3 Overseas20instrumentpanel in9markets,16stocks4indices; localcurrencyhistoriesSep9orSep10, notexhaustiveforeignlistingcensus. ASML/HSBC/MUFGtopstocks; crosscalendar,FX,dividendandvenuegaps.4 Crypto25pairs23sufficient histories,allnegative12-1scores; PAXG211/MKR36rows failhistory. Stablecoinsnotriskmomentum. Counterexample current-survivor winners inflatehistoricalstocktest, so independentfixedsectorfamilyused. Conclusion broad discovery achievedwithnamedcoveragegaps, nostock-specificliveedge. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ .

Premises1 matchedNYSE16EDTcloses to19UTChourbarclose(20UTC),June2-Sep10N70pairedlogreturns; noUTCmidnightlookahead. 2 OLSbetas:IBIT/BTC1.01137,R2.999005;ETHA/ETH1.01330,R2.998495;MSTR/BTC1.75227,R2.65150;COIN1.40360,R2.64082;WTIB.92270,R2.35744;SLE-.09936,R2.00055. 3 Circular5sessionblockbootstrap3000replicates betaCIsMSTR[1.4838,2.1557],WTIB[.6035,1.1407],SLE[-.8312,.6872]. Conclusion ETFspotwrapperscloselytrackcoins; corporateproxiesaddmaterialresidualriskandarenotdiversificationbymerecount. WTIB's51%20sessionrise cannotbeattributedsolelytoBTC; oilexposure documentedissuer butoilfactoromittedhere. SLEwholewindowmostlyprecedestreasuredeal,nearzerobeta isnotforwardforecast. Interceptsdescriptive,nottradablealpha; noveltyselectionandN70limitsoundness. Strongestcounterexample regime/capitalstructurechangeinvalidatesbetas. Noorderornewfund. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://www.uscfinvestments.com/wtib .

1 Eight issuer-dated TBN runups, six training/two holdout; baseline1ADR/3ADR trainmean1.6863%, bootstrap95%[-.4535,3.6226] with onlyone loss. Holdout +2.97997/+2.30030%,N2, no losses is not certainty and cannot estimate loss severity. No8event targethits (7time exits,1stop); historicaledge is modest runup, not demonstrated3R tail. 2 Latest60 matched daily log returns TBN vsSPY OLS beta.21021,intercept.123538%/day,corr.06673; descriptive weak linearrelation, nottrue independence or causalalpha. 3 Current candidate selected fortrend/affordability from227 leads; selection/survivorship andretrospectivedatearchive bias. May13 2025PIPE/acreage news insideMay14runup contaminates pureearnings attribution; include notsilentlydrop. Countercase newfirstgas is positive structuralbreak makingold sample less relevant in eitherdirection. Prior lowconfidence edge moves to paperwatch fromnew positivecostedhistory, notlive; additional prospective outcomes and intraday/cash evidence needed. Sources https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/ir-calendar/past ; https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/press-releases?page=3 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TBN,SPY&feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and otherlisted.txt; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex . 13,176 non-test unique directory entries,12,584 snapshots,12,305 comparable daily/prior bars;8,228 usable datedSep10. Filter nonETF,price>=3,IEXdaily dollarvolume>=2m,freshSep10 yields1,565;486up,1073down,6flat. Median-0.82038%,5/95pct-5.07313/+2.14157;Spearman(return,volume ratio to previousbar)-.05998. Broad marketweakness, not evidence eachdecline is shortage. IEX not consolidated liquidity; stale/missing bars and securities with special ticker formats not evaluated as liquid. InitialSIP403,then excessive batchrate429; recovered permittedIEX via300symbolbatched1sec spacing. Current-listing survival and daily selection preclude historical screener alpha claims. SWKS+9.84/QRVO+6.79 RF consolidation,VIST+5.68exportenergy selected;ALM-9.63/LEU-8.55 challenge commodityrent narrative. Non-supply top WLTH/CLOV/TYRA rejected for mandate, not priceforecast. Screened directory-wide, not complete all-listing price coverage.

Edge test: Twelve chronological issuer-confirmed AMC earnings fromSep2023–Jun2026. Daily SIP adjustmentall eventclose to nextsessionclose: median absolute10.624339%, range-20.081522% to+17.742559%. Sep10S8.17, Oct16C10 catalog.45Sep9/currentdelayedbar.40Sep10 implies+27.294982%; Oct16P7 catalog.47Sep9/currentdelayed.50Sep10 implies-20.440636%. Bothcover0/12 closingresponses (<40%); no documented expectedoptionpayoff>=3xpremium. Strike7 put distance14.320685% pluspremium6.119951% consumes eventtail. Premises:1 datesfrom12primaryschedules saved observations;2 daily responses frozen atclose, not bestlow;3 contractexpiry32days afterSep14event satisfies weekbuffer but residualvalue unmodeled. Valid inference: this empirical hurdle fails. Notvalid to infer actualoptionprice equalsintrinsic or 0%futurewinprobability. Counterexample future turnaround shock/IV expansion could exceedhistory, needs independentcostedvaluation. Priors no direction selectedfromoutcome; chronologicalarchivefourpages withoutreturnfilter; postpandemic/capitalstructure/regime shifts limitexchangeability. Hypothetical defaultexitSep11RTH, noholdthrough: requiredmove exceedsmedian9.816297pp put/16.670642pp call. No liveorder. Sources issuer https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 and /data/stock-bars,/data/option-bars; catalog via option_contracts.

Premises:1 Observ23064complete24hourdays show large historical O/H/L/V discrepancies despite smallclose differences. 2 Additionalcontrol masks supplied daily on exactlysame complete-day calendar as reconstructed data and recomputes indicators, rather than cherry-picking prices. 3 Fixed20daystrategy matched versus reconstructed returns identical to floatingpoint:BTCtrain+.569980%,holdout+4.831708%;ETHtrain+31.615468%,holdout-6.406080%;SOLtrain+21.135460%,holdout-7.586258%. Conclusion the full-versus-reconstructed sign/magnitude change here is explained by coverage/warmupmask, not demonstrated OHLCcorrection alpha. Full suppliedBTC-5.685453% versus matched+4.831708% highlights missing-data fragility, not reason to choose winner. BTCmatchedtrain stress-2.791931% and holdoutN5 small. Validity of exact control supports attribution for this experiment only; other rules can remain price-sensitive. No gap filling or missingbar execution allowed. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises: 1 Frozen200daydailycross/2ATRstop/6ATRtarget adapter, ninefixed equalcapital ETF sleeves, stress1bpfee+15bpslippage/side, dailyOHLC proxy. 2 Training2016Dec29–2022 N228,p26.7544%,meanwin3.59161%,meanloss1.63334%,mean-0.235438%/trade; halfKelly riskfraction max(0,.5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. 3 Heldout2023–Sep10 2026 N162,p24.6914%,W5.41611%,L1.43555%,mean+0.256218%; resample entry-month clusters10000 seed9110000:95%CI[-.382200,.949164]% on39clusters; trainingCI[-.613839,.164982]%62clusters. Holdout binary-payoff halfKelly would be.0236533 riskfraction, but using it to override failedtraining would select after inspection; live0. Strongestcounterargument emerging equitytrend regime: holds can paytails despite lowwinrate, but independence/uncertainty unresolved. Valid arithmetic; soundness limited by crossasset/serialdependence beyond entrymonth and postpublicationhistory, data/execution proxy. Holdout median4sessions,113trend/timeexits,27targets,22stops; worsttrade-6.22562%,95thpercentile9.29716%, not alltrades realize nominal3R. Recent60sessioncorrelations SPY/IWM .733317,EFA/EEM .719261,TLT/IEF .887219,SPY/GLD .318342 warn relatedbets. No estimate from three operator-liquidated live trades used as natural-exit odds. Sources research/inference.py,json and immutable rawpanels; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SSRN-id962461.pdf .

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: (1) MLKN sample is eight accessible issuer scheduling originals June2024–June2026, explicitly AMC; current Sep22BMO changes overnight timing. (2) SignedMLKN closes=1.038637,-5.460150,10.654314,12.522361,-10.837438,7.922535,-22.380200,12.046784%; mean+.688355%, medianabs10.745876%. Sixpre2026 training/two2026holdout: all coverage comes fromMar2026; no direction chosen from currentresults. (3) AtS20.8 historicalintrinsicmean .604947xpremium, maximum4.839577x, a lower-bound scenario excluding remainingtimevalue, not actual optionvalue. Valid inference present directionalcoveragefails; unsound inference would be that actualoptionsmustlose orintradaylowfillswereavailable. Strongcounterexample: persistent post-eventvariance/residualtimevalue could produce profitable optionexits despiteintrinsicshortfall; historicaloptionpricesneeded. HITI1/9 Wilson95CI1.989–43.501% crosses40, so smallsampleuncertainty not proofnegativeEV; 100000bootstrapresamples reach40% in1.195%, notposterior odds. ZUMZlatestprecloseput.90 vsstale.36, latestAH13.925 implies1.075intrinsic=1.194444x .90, notoptionreturn. Sources: eachMLKNprimaryURL saved with8eventobservations; upcoming https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast ; HITI https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars .

Premises:1 Collected100 consecutive8h OKX USDT-swap settled rates per asset, Aug9 00UTC–Sep11 00UTC, observations23045–47. 2 Latest settled percentile BTC70/ETH18/SOL34; 5th/95th bounds BTC.005875/1, ETH.129385/1,SOL-.727958/1bp. 3 Current indicative rates are not final settlements and one venue is not global leverage. Conclusion none is an outer5% extreme in this sample; no contrarian funding entry. Valid inference descriptive ranking, not prediction. Counterexample longer regime or other venue can be extreme; price effect requires time-aligned costed predictive test. Mean rates .620243/.619086/.248752bp per8h;100 normalized payments total .620243/.619086/.248752% of constant notional over33days inclusive timestamps, before hedging/costs; Alpaca cash spot cannot collect short-perpetual carry here. Non-independent adjacent observations, changing OI and no exchange-flow attribution limit inference. Source https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history .

Premises observations23009-10. Python computes AugustvsJuly canal-hours+37.50985%,9.52h;transits-2.46445%;arrivals-6.49718%;nontransit difference of averages14.51->23.63h. Sources https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/adv-34-2026-monthly-canal-operations-summary-august-2026.pdf and https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/ADV-26-2026-Monthly-Canal-Operations-Summary-July-2026.pdf .Two months, different vessel mixes; difference ofmeans not mean waiting time for a matched cohort. No regression/correlation causal claim. Julybookings112.27% flags denominator mismatch; neither slots nor cumulative usedbookings equals physical utilization. Conclusion stronger congestion watch, unproven listed-stock rent; no auction-price data. Authority directly observes transits but omits rerouted vessels, rejected cargo and issuer economics. Prior qualitative congestion plausible; this increases confidence in congestion, not numerical stock-win probability. Counterexample weaker arrivals may signal demand destruction while capacity maintenance raises elapsedtime. Hard sustainable36-38dailycapacity is route/mix conditional.

1 Querytrades shows no holdings/pending/closing; all3closedlosses, MIRM-.4393%,IONS-2.8424%,RARE-45.8601%. 2 Twooperatorliquidations censor intendedhorizons; do not fit strategywinrate/slippage distribution toN3. 3 RAREactual6.44R shows unboundedstop risk; contemporaneousquotes/sessiondata missing, so do not attribute all shortfall tobroker slippage. Conclusion no liveexits toreset and no empiricallypositiveKelly here. Counterexample: twoforcedclosures could laterhavewon, which prevents universalnegativeedge inference, not entryvalidation. Full49.14fund at historicalRAREloss wouldlose22.5356=2.6482%account850.99; this is stressscenario,notworstcase. Wholefundtotal loss5.774%account exceedsfewpercent. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

1 Reviewed originalbacktests1928/1940, no newbacktest. Chronological2024trainN4 vs2025–May2026holdoutN6, SIP/vectorbt fees5bp/side/slippage10base25stress. All12trainingcellsnegative;preferredstress-6.5511%. 2 Holdout+3.8230%,DD3.9565%,wins4/6,W2.6432/L3.2626%,meanCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%. Selectedsmallholdout doesnotestablishnew3Rstrategy. 3 Own3trades0wins includes2operatorcensored;RAREgap demonstrates stopnotmaxloss. Conclusionapproved0 despite rawhalfKelly.12761179. Counterexample changedEPMroyaltymixcouldimprovefutureoutcomes, butdoesnotdeletefailedtrain. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&analysisKind=backtest ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

Edge reference: frozen HITI N9 issuer-dated earnings daily responses, median absolute5.494505%; at S2.56 Oct16K2.5 C.31 requires+9.765625%,P.16 requires-8.593750%,each1/9=11.111%<40%; no >=3x expected-payoff mispricing documented. HAIN/EPM/ZUMZ have N0 validated comparable-event samples in this review, meaning untested, not0% wins. Premises: (1) HAIN .33 Sep9close was a13:59 trade with stock.681–.6839, intrinsic.3161–.319; newer.37 Sep10 13:55 traded with stock.6484–.6583,intrinsic.3417–.3516. Thus both marks exceed entire matched-minute intrinsic ranges. (2) HITI empirical responses22929–37 unchanged; NumPy recomputation uses signed returns. Fourofnine needed: price ceiling.0015525call/.08065934put atfixedS2.56, beforecosts. Validity: matching time removes asynchronous false comparison; soundness: minute data do not establish simultaneous executable quotes, adjusted deliverables or fairvalue. Counterexample: an unobserved executable cheaper ask could change decision, but none documented. HAINstandardK1 at.37 maximum payout2.702703xpremium even atS0, less than3xexpectedpayout and less than4xprice neededfor3Rnettarget onfullpremiumrisk. Size0. HAIN>=8eventcollection deferred because present candidate alreadyfails payoffhardbound; not presented as failedbacktest. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; /data/option-bars; option_contracts. Issuer datesSep14HAINBMO https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full andHITIAMC https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ .

Premises: 1. Re-read2183–2185 costed vectorbt tests:2025train, REUSED2026Jan1-Sep9holdout,25bpfees/side10bpslippage20stress; all36hourlycellslose and supplied dailynegative. 2. Python recomputation22952 pW-(1-p)L and .5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)) produces negative expectancy and allocation for all3. 3. Sole actualBTC10 operator liquidation does not calibrate setup odds or order slippage. Conclusion zero allocation to recorded compression rule. Validity: positive-edge requirement fails; soundness limited by smallN, reusedholdout, unresolved historical aggregation errors. Counterexample: an independent different rule may profit, so rejection is not a bearish price forecast. Current>=3Rtarget/+2Ratmostquarter exits differ from frozen1.5R rule and need independentdaily/hourly plus15minexecution evidence. No new experiment, simulation, refit or CLI rerun this tradingrun; recorded CLI2186 grossdiagnostic has no fees or holdout and cannot rescue rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises:1. Fresh fundledger3closed operatorliquidations,0active/pending/closing; censoring precludes stop/target odds and execution-slippage inference.2. Saved2284/2208/2209 costedgap holdoutN2151 return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,win43.979544398%,mean monthlyclusterCI[-.165928,-.052452]%,stressreturn-56.878654%; not rerun.3.Python p=.43979544398,W=.617581664%,L=.682768517% yields mean-.1108804318176%,halfKelly=max(0,.5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. Conclusion cash187.22; positioncap212.7475 and normalaccount risk25.5297 do not force use. Validity arithmetic correct conditional on empiricalpayoffs; soundness constrained by saved vendorhistory/costmodel/selection. Regimechange is counterexample but requires independentcosted evidence. No newMonteCarlo or simulatedexitodds claimed: negativeexpectancyalreadyfailsgate. Sources22967 and saved2284; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Python recalculation of obs22959-61, not a new backtest or independent sample. https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv Sep4 total11.868m b/d times7=83.076m barrels; weeklyratechange-.028 means-.196m barrels overweek. Components3.417crude/8.451products do not establish tanker tonne-miles. Census July rounded +2.3%inventory/+.1%sales implies1.023/1.001-1=2.197802% intensitygrowth; nominal survey excludingmanufacturers branches https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf . FrozenFTK1895 historical https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars N10p.30,W19.6007341/L19.2995217% gives expectancy-7.62944496% andhalfKelly-.1946214086 clipped0. Small selected sample cannot identify future distribution, but cannot support positive sizing from this rule. No simulation needed to overturn negative arithmetic.

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: (1) issuer https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ confirms Sep14 AMC; Oct16 expiry outlasts by32days. (2) Nine historical earnings AMC dates and bars recorded separately: Mar15/Jun13/Sep16 2024; Jan29/Mar17/Jun16 2025; Jan29/Mar17/Jun15 2026. Release-day close to next-session open/close, adjusted SIP daily bars. (3) A purchased direction must cover strike distance plus premium in >=40%, not merely move either way. Conclusion: neither direction qualifies. Validity holds conditional on comparable daily sessions; soundness limited by N9, price staleness, unverified minute reconstruction and Aug4 preannouncement. Counterexamples: residual option time value could permit resale profits without intrinsic coverage; changed German exposure could enlarge moves. Neither supplies a documented3x expected option payoff. Chronological six pre2026 events and three2026 holdouts: call0/6 then1/3; put1/6 then0/3. Excluded Sep15 2025 solely because AMC scheduling source was not recovered, not because of its +.8152% close response; preliminary N10 also failed1/10 each. Sample mixes quarters/business regimes. No dynamic fitting; no trade. Data /data/stock-bars?symbols=HITI&timeframe=1Day&start=2022-01-01&end=2026-09-10T19:20:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all; option_contracts.

Premises1 agency Sep4 data obs22919 https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv crude3.417/products8.451/total11.868m b/d imply seven-day23.919/59.157/83.076m barrels; total weekly change-.196m barrels. Not tonne-miles/charter receipts. 2 CensusJuly obs22920 https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf rounded inventory+2.3% andsales+.1% imply1.023/1.001-1=2.197802% inventoryintensityincrease; nominal values, sample excludesmanufacturerbranches, notrealvolume. 3 FrozenFTK1895/2238 from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars N10p.30/W19.6007341/L19.2995217% gives expectation-7.62944496%, halfKelly .5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L))=-.1946214086 clipped0. Pythonrecalculation, notnewindependentsample or backtest. Two actualoperatorliquidationwins cannotprovideempiricalloss. Conclusion no positiveFTKsizing; favorableheadlinecannotchange frozenpayoffs.

Review oforiginalbacktests1928/1940,notnewtest.1 Chronological2024trainN4 versus2025–May2026holdoutN6,vectorbt/costedSIP; all12traincellsnegative,preferredstress-6.5511%.2 Holdout+3.8230%,DD3.9565%,4/6wins,meanCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%; selectedsmallholdout notreliable3Rodds. CLI109trades gross-51.8445%,DD67.3506%,wins32.1101% lacksindependentOOS/costs.3 OwntradehistoryN3/0wins,2operatorliquidations,censored; RAREstored-6.44Rshowsstopnotgapbound. PythonrawhalfKelly.1276117927 fromW2.64321/L3.26259;approved0. Validityfailedentry/payoffprerequisites; soundnesslimitedtosampledsetups. Strongcountercaseacquiredroyaltymixchangesregime,needsprospectiveproofnotdeletingtraining. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst .

Premises:1. Re-read costed vectorbt backtests2183–85: 2025training, REUSED2026Jan1-Sep9holdout,25bpfees/side10bpslippage20stress; all36hourlycells lose, supplied daily also negative. 2. Python audit observation22912 recomputes pW-(1-p)L and .5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)); all allocations negative before clamp. 3. Sole liveBTC10 forced liquidation cannot calibrate strategy or slippage. Conclusion allocation0; this is arithmetic audit, not new experiment/backtest. Validity conditional on positiveedge gate; soundness limited by smallN, reusedwindow and historicalaggregation defects. Counterexample independent newstrategy could profit; a rally cannot validate rejected rule. Existing1.5Rtest and +1Rreferences fail current>=3R/+2Rquarter policy: newversion needs independent daily/hourly15minexecution evidence, no retuning past holdout. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises:1.FreshQuantledger has3operator-liquidatedclosedtrades,zeroactive; intended4–6weekoutcomes censored, no calibrated stop/target or slippage distribution.2.Saved2269/2208/2209 gaprule costedholdoutN2151 return-26.212876%,DD27.351241%,win43.979544398%,72monthlyclustermeanCI[-.165928,-.052452]%,stress-56.878654%. Reuse, not newbacktest.3.Python recomputes p=.43979544398,W=.617581664%,L=.682768517%,mean-.1108804318176%,halfKelly=max(0,.5*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. Conclusionzeroentry. Valid conditionalarithmetic; soundness limited to savedvendorhistory,costs,selection. Counterexample newregime couldchangeedge, but oneintradayrally isnotindependenttest. No newMonteCarlo probabilities claimed; empiricalnegativeedge alreadyfailsentry. Source obs22897; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Review not newbacktest.1 Original1928EPM2024train4/2025–May2026holdout6; all12traincellsnegative,preferredstress-6.5511%,holdout+3.8230%,DD3.9565%,wins4/6,W2.64321/L3.26259%,meanCI[-1.77895,3.06512]%. HalfKelly arithmetic.127611793 describesselectedholdout,approved0.2 TLX2167 genericmomentumtrain-25.273% isnotFDAeventvalidation;LOVE1677holdout-2.34135%.3 Actualfund3trades0wins,mean-16.3806%,total-31.9373;RARE-6.44035storedR versus2operatorliquidations. Countercase censoredsmalltradehistory doesnot prove allcatalystslose; therefore do notuse0/3 asuniversalodds. Negative training,unknown new3Rtarget odds andincompleteeventexecutionjustifyzero. Sources runway:query_research?fund=catalyst ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .