Stats

Own trade query contains only two completed market entries, both operator-liquidated Sep4. Python gross returns3.805162958% and.752256770%, mean2.278709864%,2/2wins with no loss sample and no stop/target exits. Cannot estimate average loss, execution slippage or calibrated Kelly from this censored pair. Source runway:query_trades?fund=supply . Preserve independently recorded TEN3214 chronological test: train22,+19.190992%,DD49.046502%,win36.3636%;knownholdout11closed+1.924385%,stress-.293468%,marked+16.576931% includes open trade. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No new backtest run or new rule trusted; selected name and previously viewed holdout remain limitations.

Edge test: ten consecutive issuer-scheduled HITI AMC earnings March2024–June2026, 926 SIP adjustment=all daily bars; release-close to next-session-close median absolute4.700378%. Sep11S2.53, Oct16C2.5 .21Sep11/P2.5 .16Sep10 plus assumed .05/share roundtrip costs require +9.090909%/-9.486166%; each1/10=10%, below40%. Mean mapped intrinsic .213531/.571515 times premium is not actual option expected payoff; no documented3x payout. Aug25issuer quote 'after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026' https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; Oct16expiry32dayslater, defaultSep11RTHexitpassed, noholdexception (hurdles above median4.390531/4.785788pp). Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Twenty corrected historical contract-window requests all200; 60 event/side/lag endpoints enumerated. March2025 Apr18GoodFriday symbols empty; Apr17repair recovers12call/9putbars. Sources https://cdn.cboe.com/resources/options/Cboe2025OPTIONSCalendar.pdf . N10issuer dates consecutive fiscalquarters, originalURLs and daily responses26173–82 re-opened; restored2025Sepquarter remainsincluded. Observations27998–99/28025–32 preserve endpoints and missingness. 2. Common training intersection acrossT2/3/5 is5calls,1put. Training-selectedcallT2 mean-13.580438% all-in-ticket return; bootstrap20k95%[-47.238095,20.077220]. Two known-calendar holdoutcalls mean-16.981132%; no strictlypositive nettrade (oneflat). PutT3/T5tie resolvedshorter3, one+24%train observation becomes-13.333333% at$10cost; holdoutN0. No confidence interval or Kelly estimate from that singleton. 3. Premise actualtrade marks add evidence, but do not establish synchronous fills, listing history or unselected missing outcomes. Missingness can select liquid winners/losers; rejecting common-train strategy doesn't prove all possible option strategies fail. Historical event selection and known outcomes limit genuine OOS claims. Strong counterexample unobserved tail/timevalue could help, but no evidence supplies3xexpectedpayoff. Do not substitute earlierN9 or favorable nonselectedT3holdout.

Gate3214 train22netreturns mean1.649875%,median-4.372739%,P05/P95 -10.027048/30.464151%;20kIIDmean95CI[-3.684452,7.796336]%,10kcircular3tradeblock[-3.751510,9.431886]%. Knownholdout11mean.487839%,median-4.672473%,IID[-3.925075,5.518712]%,block[-2.680960,2.559161]%. Seed91308; chronologicalholdoutkeptseparatebutalreadyseen, currentTENselectionbias. 4/22trainingtargets,1/11holdouttargets;stopinclBE17/22and8/11, medianholds14/7sessions. Two liveSupplywinners wereoperatorliquidations,0strategyexits and no executionquote baseline; cannot calibrate100%winrate orslippage. Positive arithmeticmean supports furtherboundedpolicywork; counterexampleis negative median and closedstressloss. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; livequery_trades fund=supply IDs3/6.

Question: what historical range can occur between this Sunday08UTC run and Monday00UTC next review? Prior: quiet weekends are not risk-free. Method: retrieve primary hourly bars Jan2024–Sep13 07UTC, checkpoint each page; select complete Sunday08–23UTC windows. Exclude today's incomplete window. Separate2024–25 calibration BTC/ETH N104,SOL70 (history beginsAug26 2024) and already-known2026 N36 each. No parameter sweep or strategy selected. Known2026 gross mean returns BTC−.12176%,ETH−.20451%,SOL−.30521%; positive47.22/47.22/44.44%. Endpoint P05/P95 BTC−2.0887/+2.1124%,ETH−4.5489/+3.6673%,SOL−4.4856/+3.5792%. Intrawindow low P05−3.4902/−5.7637/−6.5846%; highsP95+3.5221/+4.4851/+5.4965%. Training worst lows−7.0628/−14.4095/−12.9352%. These are realized sample excursions, not future bounds. Matched2026 correlations BTC/ETH.89293,BTC/SOL.87954,ETH/SOL.91175. All6fullrows retained in observations and localJSON. A weakly negative unconditional mean cannot reject a validated conditional momentum edge; a positive median cannot establish one. Conclusion: use shared-shock risk, preserve no-entry decision for independent signal/policy reasons. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Missing historical executablequotes and sparseSOLtraining remain limitations.

SIP alladjusted daily logreturns2020–Sep11; matching complete5series TEN,FRO,STNG,XLE,SPY. TrainN1257 TEN/FROcorrelation.672633,TEN/STNG.642277,TEN/XLE.425455;knownholdoutN424 .835756/.754700/.349823;last60 .822488/.752456/.142194. OLS TEN dailyreturn on intercept,FRO,SPY: trainbetaFRO.667135/SPY.268046,R2.460691,intercept-4.788881bp/day;heldout.706038/.211466,R2.705710,intercept2.067818bp/day;last60.698832/-.019706,R2.676522,intercept14.850864bp/day. Descriptive contemporaneous factor attribution; intercept not validated alpha, no significance/causal return forecast. Correlation can rise in stress; do not treat TEN/FRO two positions as diversified supply bets. Cross-sector XLE correlation falling does not identify another paid bottleneck automatically. Current book flat. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.

Primary cadence model3183. Training31 closed mean2.112847%,P05/median/P95 -13.885557/-7.312793/30.214313%;20k IID meanCI[-3.115923,7.696204]%,10k circular3tradeblockCI[-2.617690,6.994972]%. Knownholdout11 mean1.906418%,P05/median/P95 -7.107902/-5.564518/15.266447%;IIDCI[-3.505778,7.708049]%,blockCI[-1.634633,6.012300]%. Seed91306. Training outcomes all before2025; no boundary-spanning trades. Selection is current surviving TEN after recent strength, not random universe; holdout already examined in prior runs, so not fresh independent validation. 2/2 live winners operator-liquidated,0 strategy exits: no calibrated live Kelly or quote slippage. Counterexample to strong confidence is negative median and wideCI; positive arithmetic mean and payoff skew still permit investigating a small probe. Do not use certainty threshold or100%livewinrate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.

Calendar-hour logclose returns from venuebars, train2024–25 and knownholdout2026Jan1–Sep12. Do not bridge missinghours. Holdoutweekend hourlySD BTC33.0404/ETH48.8851/SOL58.7092bp versusweekday51.2783/66.7165/70.1682bp;N1752weekend,4366weekdayeach. Weekendmeans−.4173/−.6670/−.5293bp perhour are descriptive, not causal/weekendshortsignal. Worstweekend simplehours−3.5913/−4.0245/−5.0440%,so quietmedian does not boundlefttail. Synchronized6118hour holdout correlations BTCETH.887966/BTCSOL.837870/ETHSOL.848997, versus matched11801traininghours .792899/.750043/.770080. TrainingSOLcoverage partial, so composition/time differ; no formal structuralbreak claimed. Premises: 24/7risk includes weekends; correlatedcoins are one sharedriskfactor; only drawdownstress acrossjointpaths can evaluate diversification. Strongestcounterargument: correlations below1 and tail timing can differ; retain synchronized simulation ratherthan assumeperfectcorrelation or independence. Conclusion threequarterprobes must countjoint exposure, not three independent convictions. All14distribution/correlation rows recorded with source/date/units. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Frozen before fetching: call strike nearest prior-entry-daystockclose on2.5grid, firststandardmonthlyexpiry>=7daysafterearnings, T2/T3/T5close entries and prior-sessioncloseexit. First8eventstrain,last2previouslyknowncalendarholdout; choose bymean ticketreturn on common6trainingevents to avoid comparingdifferentmissingness. T3wins+4.529617%mean versusT2-14.277006/T5-5.645199%. 2. Sixtrainreturns havebootstrapmean95%[-19.512195,32.148664]%;63.92%bootstrapmeanspositive isnotposteriorprobability. At.10sharecostmean-15.218254%. MissingMarch2024bothendpoints,March2025T3entry,andJune2026T3entryleave7/10completeoverall. Hypotheticalmissingreturns[-100,+300]%allowfull8trainmean[-21.602787,78.397213]%andtwoeventholdoutmean[-33.006536,166.993464]%;notstatisticalorhardbounds. 3. Timingcounterexample:Jun2026initialJun19wrongholidayexpiry; Cboe Jun18repair recovers7dailybars butnotJune5entry. March2026T2optionclose.75 below same-dayintrinsic.79 illustratesasynchronousmarks;notarbitrage. Reject claim dataabsentglobally; historictradebars existbut executionedge unproven. No droppingmissinglosers, latebarcarryforwardorstrike substitution.

Premises:1 freeze P90 from rolling60session gains endingSep13 2021-Dec31 2024;2 evaluate only gains whose starting observation isJan1 2025 or later, removing60cross-boundary endpoints;3 this is retrospective chronological holdout, already-known history, not prospectively unseen validation and not a strategy backtest. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. Frozen threshold7.302853636% from831 overlapping windows, training exceedance9.987966306%. Holdout364windows throughSep11 2026 exceeds threshold54.120879121%, ownP9015.986842505%,lag1corr.936329809. Nonoverlapping60offset exceedance ranges33.3333–66.6667%, each6–7samples; offsets overlap one another. These quantify regime instability, not independently sampled Bernoulli trials. Current mandated fiveyearP9010.717963% remains unchanged. Counterexample to stationary10%exceedance is this holdout; does not refute momentum or authorize new target. Collection misses intraday path and changing historical composition; causality unknown.

Re-read query_trades fund=crypto at06:02UTC. Only trade10: BTC entry81614.8 exit81548.7 qty.001681857, opened2026-09-03T19:42:24.677Z closed20:30:20.345Z by operator liquidation. Price return−.0809902%, price PnL−.111171USD, wins0/1; stop73440,target97900 were not triggered. No contemporaneous entry reference quote or itemized fees, so slippage unavailable. Premises: externally censored N1 is not a strategy payoff sample; old breakout/media reason does not validate today's delayed-entry control. Conclusion no empirical live Kelly from this record. Current no own open/pending positions. Source query_trades fund=crypto and supplied Sep13 venue account context.

query_trades fund=crypto returns one closed BTC lot: entry81614.80, exit81548.70, quantity.001681857, openedSep3 19:42:24.677UTC, closed20:30:20.345UTC by operator liquidation. Raw price return−.0809902%, price-PnL−.111171USD, observed0/1wins; neither stop nor target determined exit. No entry quote/reference price or separate fee ledger supports a slippage estimate. Its old price-breakout thesis was not tonight's supply rule. Premises: one externally terminated trade is not a strategy distribution; do not estimate win/loss odds or half-Kelly from this lot. Current own book has no open or pending crypto orders; EEM belongs to trend and is outside this review. Source query_trades fund=crypto; user venue context asSep13 04:01UTC. Conclusion use recorded research controls, not0/1pseudo-confidence; actualallocation0.

Companion to3130, same lag2 seven-dayUSDCunitgrowth and prior7day price momentum, next1daylogreturn as outcome, OLSHAC7. Purge final1trainingday:2024Jan1–2025Dec30; knownholdoutJan1–Sep11 outcomes throughSep12. BTC/ETHtrainN730,SOL485;holdoutN254. Trainingbetas-.001839/+.016259/-.104505 withp .968210/.780891/.114559. Holdoutbetas .088794/.122204/.136675,p .365205/.456096/.302054 and95%CIs[-.103403,.280991]/[-.199167,.443575]/[-.122887,.396236]. Allcrosszero; noone-dayleadingeffect established. This fulfills originallyspecified1/7dayresolution, notanewchosenwinninghorizon. Revision/availabilityuncertainty, omittedcommonmacrodrivers andsmallregimes limitinference; nocausalclaimororder. Sources https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Managedrawpapertrain29mean+.66741%/trade,IID20kbootstrap95%[-4.02761,5.78851]%;circular3tradeblock10kCI[-3.52885,5.13261]%. Knownholdout10mean6.01385%,IID[-.19308,11.98345]%,block[1.15657,10.98076]%; blockCIpositivewithonly10tradesdoesnotoutweighsample/modelselection. TrainP05/P50/P95=-13.0172/-6.7140/+28.1638%;holdout-8.0535/+8.4027/+18.1984%. Historicalsample iscurrentTENidentityselectedafterseeingstrongrecentperformance; regimesnotIIDandmissingsampledquotesremain. OwntradehistoryFRO/STNGN2bothprofitbutoperator-liquidatedSep4,notstrategyexits; no source contemporaneousquote means no measuredorderslippage. Do not convert100%observedwinrateintoKelly. Models andtradeobservations https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev . Evidence needed: exact manager-time/rawquote implementation andprospectiveoutcome, not furtherlookbackselection.

Frozen question: does seven-day USDC unit growth, available after two calendar days, predict the next seven-day log return after controlling for preceding seven-day price momentum? OLS with intercept and Newey-West/HAC7 covariance; training2024Jan1–2025Dec24 (purged final7days), holdout2026Jan1–Sep5 with outcomes throughSep12. Current-vintage Llama aggregate history, publication vintages unknown; no causal identification. BTC/ETH trainN724, SOLN479 due missing history; each holdoutN248. USDC training betas BTC-.000083, ETH-.229591, SOL-.504461, all95%CIs include0. Holdout betas .938418/1.453205/1.425510, CIs[-.322597,2.199434]/[-.563767,3.470178]/[-.388353,3.239373], p .14469/.15791/.12348. CombinedUSDC+USDT holdout betas2.69896/3.34271/3.51804 also cross0. Lagged future correlations~.25–.28 look encouraging in2026, but training future correlations nearzero/negative; contemporaneous trailing-price correlations generally larger. Counterexample: SOL2026USDC future corr .27246 exceeds past .24848, so it is false to claim supply always follows price. Validity: the models do not establish incremental stable predictive content; they do NOT prove no effect or direction of causality. Priors only weakly updated toward context rather than standalone signal. Need prospective publication-stamped samples and repeatable net holdout improvement to upgrade. Sources https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2 ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024-Jun2026 reverified against primary URLs in observations27176–85 and926 fresh SIP adjustmentall daily bars. Release-close to next-session-close median absolute16.578014%; Sep11S2.95 Oct16C2.5 close.50Sep10 plusassumed.05/share totalcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; P2.5 .12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10; C5 .05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10. No documented actual option expected payoff>=3xpremium. IssuerSep2 quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Oct16expiry23dayslater; defaultSep22RTHexit; no current position. Source option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Premise coverage is a frequency gate, not payoff magnitude. Mean mapped intrinsic.554648/share=1.109296xpremium;55USDall-in gives+.008451R mean; full ten events40%wins. First8training mean-.039855R,3/8wins; last2already-seen holdout+.201677R,1/2wins. Largest event+44.347826%; remove it as sensitivity (not preferred estimator) ->mean-.234703R,N9. 2. NumPy20kbootstrap mean95%[-.600180,.710525]R;49.21%resamples positive, not posterior probability of edge. Empirical log-optimal halfKelly.00377988ofaccount=$3.21664all-in, below55USDwholecall. This is scenario Kelly, actual option Kelly unidentified; insufficient to authorize a probe. 3. Strong counterexample: tails are the mandate and removal of winner is biased; retain it in baseline. Nevertheless baseline negligible and uncertainty wide. Historical calls retain time value after event; zero residual understates their value, so do not call this actualnegativeoptionEV. Conclusion current coverage alone cannot validate sizing or3xexpectedpayoff.

Premises:1 synchronized41 crisis sessions2020-02-18–04-15 and29 recent sessions2026-08-03–09-11;2 old sizes96.44/96.45/96.45 and current r=2ATR/close;3 L=sum N*[r+(1-r)*max(0,-g)+.005], stress doubles adverse g; g is previousclose-to09:30open,09:45open,or first15Min low. Full diagnostics in observations27196–98. Prior daily-open doubled stress64.6743 versus intraday09:30open69.6427 and09:45open74.1207. Old per-lot09:45stress23.0467/24.2501/26.8240, first15low20.7981/26.2136/24.7325. Largest added delay loss5.3533 onMar19 vs1.3400 recent; mean .3542 vs .0188; worsening15/41 vs11/29 days. IWM daily/intraday opening difference2.9016% confirmed1Min; same provider, not independent corroboration. Neither09:45 print nor low proves executable fill; halt can defer longer. Crisis deliberately oversamples stress; recent is descriptive comparison, not an edge holdout. Sound conclusion: daily-open stress alone insufficient for this execution constraint. No crash odds/Kelly or strategy validation inferred. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/sro/nyse/2020/34-88413.pdf .

Question: how stable is mandated EEM five-year60-session P90? Premises:1 adjusted closes proxy total returns;2 1255rolling endpoint gains are dependent;3 retrospective regime slices describe this history,not a new signal. Primary https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; retrievedSep13,2020warmup; endpoints2021-09-13 through2026-09-11. P9010.717963%; annual P90/N:2021partial .820874/78,2022 1.174449/251,2023 10.297989/250,2024 7.781806/252,2025 13.460032/250,2026YTD17.878753/174. Lag1corr.973267,lag20.581266. 60 nonoverlapping start offsets have20–21observations EACH; P90range7.540264–14.458627%,median10.234661%; offsets share underlying history,not60independent replications. Forward cohortsN1195: aboveSMA at entryN753 P9011.063357%,median4.20832%,negative23.24037%; belowN442 P908.577169%,median-1.78699%,negative57.91855%. HighvolN597 P9014.52937%,negative48.40871%; lowN598 P9010.29421%,negative23.74582%. Vol median computed fullsample: descriptive, not deployable cutoff. Fixed presentP90 threshold reached on a subsequent close within60sessions23.682008%,terminal exceed10.543933%; retrospective fullsample threshold has lookahead and no stops/costs/ratchet, explicitly NOT backtest or live odds. Counterexample2022 shows pooled upside need not characterize next regime. Conclusion retain measured75.11target, reject90%hit-probability interpretation or precision claims; no policy modification.

2026completedhourreturns6120each exceptHYPE4978;SDpercentBTC.467711 ETH.621731 SOL.670328 LTC.573518 XRP.668659 HYPE.910854 LINK.680472. PairwiseBTCcorr .887310/.837489/.739462/.768035/.569833/.822578;OLSbeta1.179507/1.200297/.906746/1.098015/1.168492/1.196768 respectively,notcausalalpha. HIGH20/LOW10trainingclosedN6–14,20kIIDtradebootstrapseed91302:all12mean95%CIs cross0;BTCdailymean4.4829%CI[-6.6383,17.5124],hourly3.4366[-5.3822,14.2027];XRPdaily50.7756[-15.4319,167.1371]fat-taildependent. HalfKelly=.5*(p/avgabsoluteLoss-(1-p)/avgWin) inreturnfractions;BTC1.0247daily/1.0402hourly uncapped,otherdailyETH/SOL/LTC/LINKnegative. Highplug-insarenotleverageauthorization;HYPEno2024–25train. Validityformulaassumptionsbinarypayoff; soundnesslimitedbyregimes,sample,current-survivoruniverse. Actualsize0becausefreshentryabsent;futurequarterprobe<=29.785/current119.14fund/212.7475positioncapandpayoffvalidation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; backtests3077–3090.

Frozen dailytrainN33 netmean1.0437%,20,000IIDbootstrap95%CI[-3.7876,6.3721]%; holdoutN12mean5.4980%,CI[-.4618,11.4242]%. Training22stops/8targets/3time,holdout5/4/3. N424common2025–Sep11returnsTEN/FROcorr.835826; TEN/CNQ.276531. SPY+XLIOLS R2.0682 isdescriptive, notproofidiosyncraticalpha. ExistingFROwin andTENsetup areonegeopolitical/freightrisk, nottwoindependentbets. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Positivepointestimates warrant prospectivevalidation, not treating12tradesasstable probability. BootstrapIID omitsregimeclustering; currentlyselectedticker biases screen.

Edge test: nine consecutive fiscal earnings Q3FY24–Q3FY26 (May2024–May2026), SIP adjustment=all prior-close to morning-release-day close, median absolute5.245902%, range -11.810013% to+23.8%. AtSep11S7.39 Oct16P5 .05Sep11 plusassumed.05/sharecost needs33.694181%fall,0/9; P7.5 .69 needs8.525034%,1/9 and69USD>51.0594absolute; C5 2.45Sep8 needs+1.488498%,5/9 but245USD>102.12fund and42.5495convictionrisk. No documentedactualoptionexpectedpayoff>=3xpremium. Aug26issuer quote 'before the U.S. market open on September 16, 2026' https://investors.luxexperience.com/news/news-details/2026/LuxExperience-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Earnings-Release-and-Conference-Call-Participating-in-Upcoming-Investor-Conference/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+30days; defaultSep15RTHexit, noholdexception foraffordableput becausehurdle exceedsmedian28.448279pp. History originalURLs and bars26862–89; ISOdatesinobservationnotes normalized, notverbatimissuerdateformat. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts LUXE. 1. Enumerated consecutive quarters before measuring; preserved Feb10,2026 first release rather than Feb12 correction and May14,2025 earnings rather than May15 strategic update. 2. All9 affordableputintrinsic payouts0; nearerputmeanintrinsic.298011xpremium, expensivecall1.130256x. These are static intrinsic scenarios, not option exits or mispricing proofs. 3. Null prior: no executable edge until costed criterion passes. LegacyMYTE standalone and acquiredYNAPbusiness differ: only4 quarters report group with acquired operations, insufficient same-regimeN8. WholeN9 testfailscheapput anyway. 4. Counterexample: futureacquisitionintegration couldproduce unprecedentedcollapse; unknown tailmass cannotbe estimated from zeroobservedhits. Rejectput; revisit newnearerpricedcontract plus independent event evidence. Dailyclose excludesintradayextremes andoptionIV; no claim of attainable fills.

Fixed L20 trainingN27 mean-2.1782%, IIDbootstrap20000 95%CI[-4.8701,+.8161]%; holdoutN14 mean+1.3471%,CI[-4.2810,+7.4645]%. Training20stop/gapstop vs2targets and5time exits; holdout9stop/gapstop vs5target/gaptarget. Paired daily2025–Sep11 N424: KMT/XLIcorr.5665; OLSintercept.5074bp/day, SPYbeta-.2713,XLIbeta1.4806,R2.3248. Descriptive selected sample, no robust alpha significance and no causal tungsten coefficient. Ownledger still twooperatorliquidations, no naturalstop/target exits;100%winN2 cannot calibrate new strategy or slippage. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_tradesfund=supply. Premise1 smallconditionaledge; premise2 trainnegative; conclusion do not trade from holdoutalone. IIDresampling understates serial/event clustering and currentlistings create survivor selection.

Premises:1 sizes96.44/96.45/96.45;2 fresh all-adjusted2020+ open/previousclose worst gaps on2020-03-16;3 stress=N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005], r=2ATR/close. [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":96.44,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"normal":2.1229602366830784,"gain":15.593948094606814,"worst_gap":0.09460338101430432,"worst_date":"2020-03-16 04:00:00+00:00","stress":20.450581934423802},{"symbol":"IWM","size":96.45,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"normal":2.0502761345148643,"gain":12.368598158700099,"worst_gap":0.09305480195333693,"worst_date":"2020-03-16 04:00:00+00:00","stress":20.101221352019692},{"symbol":"EFA","size":96.45,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"normal":1.5925006841611973,"gain":9.288407846549196,"worst_gap":0.11621497473587517,"worst_date":"2020-03-16 04:00:00+00:00","stress":24.1224744571582}] Correlations252 {"QQQ":{"QQQ":1,"IWM":0.7375146484818859,"EFA":0.7068026873334806},"IWM":{"QQQ":0.7375146484818859,"IWM":1,"EFA":0.7494056074136088},"EFA":{"QQQ":0.7068026873334806,"IWM":0.7494056074136088,"EFA":1}}. Prior3001 split-adjusted2016+ stress64.6655; newall-adjusted64.6743 difference.0088 from definitions, not changed market. Both each<25.5297 but joint7.60%equity. Full notional loss exceeds3%; finite scenario is not guaranteed bound. EFA retained conservative max24.1263. Gross targets37.251 vsordinary5.7657 over1–3months, payoff geometry not expected return. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.

CNQ frozen L20 net-account trade mean: trainingN30 +.8849%, 20,000 IID bootstrap95%CI[-2.2398,4.2669]; heldoutN11 +1.4939%,CI[-2.9575,6.5350]. Positive geometric test is evidence for a watch, with uncertainty spanning zero; IID bootstrap misses clustered regimes. Training stop/gapstop/target/gaptarget/time counts13/5/7/1/4, heldout5/2/1/2/1. On424 common daily returns2025Jan–2026Sep11, corr CNQ/XLE=.7702, CNQ/FRO=.1724; OLS CNQ=intercept+XLE+SPY gives XLEbeta1.0133, SPYbeta-.0273, R2.5934, dailyintercept2.9233bp. Descriptive fit, no robust alpha significance or outage causality inferred. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Own trade IDs6/3: FRO+3.8052%/+0.6799 initialR/$4.3756 and STNG+.7523%/+.1261R/$.6017, both operator-liquidatedSep4. N2/100%wins/average2.2787% describe forced exits, not tested stop/target strategy; arrival quotes unavailable so slippage unmeasured. source query_trades?fund=supply . Do not call two energy names unrelated merely because their short sample correlation is low.

2026 hourlyreturns6118each, unfilledmissinghours; SD BTC.467852%,ETH.621319%,SOL.670824%,weekends.330404/.488851/.587092%,weekdays.512783/.667165/.701682%. DailySD2.426569/3.311268/3.326831%. CorrelationsBTCETH.887966,BTCSOL.837870,ETHSOL.848997; OLSalt-onBTCbeta1.179240/1.201370, no identifiedalpha. Premise1 lowerweekendvariance notdepthorlefttailguarantee. Premise2 highdependence means3coins are substantiallyonebet. Approximatebinarypayoff halfKelly=.5*(p/avgloss-(1-p)/avgwin) fromtrainingclose-screen:dailyBTC.183084,ETH.768059,SOL1.837705 (uncapped);hourlyallnegative. BTCdailytrainingwin28.889%,avgwin5.2172%,avgloss2.0640%;ETH29.268/7.3001/2.6074%;SOL45.833/4.8713/3.0979. Counterexample positiveplug-in withsmallnonstationarysample andnegativeholdout doesnotestablishedge; two-outcomeapproximationignoresdistribution. ActualKellyallocation0becausecandidateentryabsentandcontrolrejected; anyfutureprobe <=29.785/current119.14fund/212.7475accountpositioncap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; observations26572–95.

Edge test: corrected10 consecutive issuer-dated AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, daily SIP release-close to next-session close, median absolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95, Oct16P2.5 .12Sep11/C2.5 .50Sep10 plus assumed .05/share costs require -21.016949%/+3.389831%, covered2/10(20%)/4/10(40%). Callpassescoveragebut50USDpremium exceeds42.5495 convictionrisk; even45USDintrinsicexceedscap. Putfails40%; no documentedexpectedactualoptionpayoff>=3xpremium. IssuerSep2 quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Oct16expiry23dayslater; defaultSep22RTHexit. Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars /data/option-bars; historicalsources recorded26537–46. OriginalN8preserved. 1. Restore Dec10 2024(+44.347826%) and Mar11 2025(-5.437352%) from issuer schedules before recomputing; source omission was not a return filter but biased population. Tenquartercontinuity nowcompleteMar2024-Jun2026; Dec2025 issuer confirmsDec4 despite syndicatedsearchnoise. Mean+.424406%, bootstrap95[-14.066461,15.232436]%; putWilson95coverage[5.668095,50.984315] showsuncertainty notpermission. 2. Signedratherthanabsolute test: fourpositiveeventsallowcall4/10, butputonly2/10. At.13premium+.05costput1/10; third/fourthfallsthreshold means requiredputprice40%=-.188987, impossible atfixedS. 3. Validity: numericalgatecorrect; soundnesslimits smallsample,businesschange,unseenfuture,eventtiming,staleoption. OldN8statisticsremainforecastvintage, notrewritten. NoactualoptionEV inferredfromintrinsic.