Stats

Source costed cash-return observations16251–56 from original DRI SEC releases and https://runway.adityperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars (URL spelling correction: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ). NumPy seed20260909 resamples six holdout whole-event returns with replacement into50000 ten-event paths, starting49.14 and hypothetically fully reinvesting at each event. Terminal p5/p50/p95=47.6642/53.8006/61.1115USD, terminal-loss frequency11.128%, p95 maximum drawdown7.4522%. Separate mean bootstrap CI[-0.8285,2.9660]% includes zero. This is conditional on the six observed outcomes being representative and independent; it cannot generate missing large gaps, regime shifts, taxes or actual execution failures. No actual capital allocated. Strongest counterexample is unobserved early news: prior RARE realized loss45.86% and6.44 listed-stop R, which this earnings bootstrap never samples. Do not interpret11.128% as calibrated live-loss probability or7.45% as worst loss. Simulation informs a research watch, not authorization; quarterKelly estimate0.073922 is overridden by evidence gates to0.

1. Startaccount850.99/quant245.69cash; no positions. Goalrepeatablepositiveprofit;bindingconstraintnegativevalidatedpayoff. Fromfrozen301trademanagedhistory,samplejointportfolioreturns,not independentstocks. 2. Seed9090201,20000circular3-sessionblockpaths,16sessions approximatingremainingSep9–30tradingwindow,entire245.69quantbooksupposedlydeployed into8equalinitialfractionalsleeves. Base5/50/95profitUSD[-1.87048,0,1.11598],lossfrequency49.8%;stress[-2.30212,-.17552,.81874],loss58.445%. No samplemakes349.01USD;this isnotprooftruelikelihoodzero. Flatdays in historicalstrategyexplainmedian0;no missingreturns convertedtozero. 3. Longerdiagnosticseed9090200,20000joint3monthblockpaths60months,quant/accountconstantweight. Baseaccount5/50/95return[-3.15198,-1.89739,-.64159]%,loss99.325%;stress[-5.27339,-3.97671,-2.67820]%,loss100%infiniteMonteCarlosample only. Correction:actual horizon60months,not100months originallycontemplated. Excludesfixedoperatingcosts,newregimes,wholelots,15minfillgaps andfuturecashrate. Resamplingassumesstationarity;shortblocksdo notpreservemonthlyentrycalendar; hypotheticalfreshschedule isnotanapprovedlateentry. 4. QuarterKellybinary-average-loss approximationfloors0 inbaseandstress;notional0. Caps212.7475/position and8.5099nominalrisk limitlossplans,notguaranteedgaploss. Neither need349.01 nor parentpositivereturnsuppliesapprovededge. Sources archivedhorizon_sim.py/json anddiagnostics; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

1. NumPy seed2026090902; sample10000 joint overlapping3day logreturn blocks from last60 completed dailybars throughSep8. Only58 distinct blocks, preserving cross-major dependence within each block. Fee haircut.9975²; no slippage/stops/targets/15minexecution. Unconditional risk, not an entry-conditioned forecast. 2. Simulated mean BTC+.72379%,ETH+1.36121%,SOL+1.28556%; lossprob49.84/46.94/47.79%; simulated fifthpercentile-3.36973/-3.90019/-5.85392%, dollar losses at212.7475 cap7.16901/8.29756/12.45408. SOL exceeds8.5099 equityriskbudget. 3. Exact linear-interpolated fifthpercentiles across58distinct blocks -3.21421/-3.66867/-5.10359%; worst3day -4.13597/-4.26211/-7.24518%. Quantile differsfrompreviousseed because tailhasfewdiscreteblocks, notnewinformation; no confidencefrom10000repeats. 4. No newdailybar sincepriorrun, so dependence/volatility unchanged. Positiveunconditionaldrift and lowerBTC historicaltail do notcalibrateentrywinrate. Kellygate alreadybindsat0; stopslippage couldexceedriskbudget. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; test.py and simulation.json, complete observation. Conclusion size0, no invented exit odds.

Use recorded1302 costed24trade ledger, not unconditional bullish stock paths. Numpy RNGseed2026090900 after20000meanbootstrapdraws; circularblocks of3 consecutive trades, seven blockstarts/path trimmedto20trades,20000paths. Initialcash included in peak. At10%equity exposure/path:lossprobability88.865%,median-4.502515%,95thpercentileDD10.590189%. At25%:loss89.61%,median-11.144542%,p95DD24.447057%. These are empiricalconditionalstresses assuming repeated independentblockstarts and unchangedpayoff distribution, NOT forecastprobability of future stock losses or15minuteexitodds. p=.208333,avgwin16.456597%,avgloss7.115503% -> p-(1-p)/(win/loss)negative; floor quarterKelly0. No use of2operatorwins or fundingneed349.01. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Smallhistory/unseenfat tails/pricegaps can worsen outcomes. Since baseedge fails, do not invent a trade stop/target, and no expensive15minoptimization undertaken to rescue it. Counterexample different independentlytestedrulemaywork; it requires preregistration and newholdout.

Start equity850.99/quantcash245.69; goalrepeatablenetprofit;bindingconstraintedgeuncertainty. Premises1.Use219completedfixedrule2021–25returns,base6bp/sideandstress16bp/side.2.NumPyseed9090000,20000paths,100sequentialtrades,circular5tradeblocks; eachtrade hypotheticallyinvests25%ofevolvingaccountequity.3.Base terminal5/50/95percentiles-5.54344/+1.53083/+9.92274%,lossprob36.68%,10%DDprob.85%,95thDD7.78848%.Stress-10.13895/-3.41932/+4.55102%,lossprob77.075%,10%DDprob11.14%,95thDD11.33923%.Conclusion simulated upside is not robust to10bp extraslippageeachside. No100tradesin23daysclaim;~219trades/5years horizon differs runwaywindow. Sampling assumes pastblockdistributionrepeats; doesnotmodelnewcrashes,15minexitovershoot,wholelotrounding,fixed205monthlycost orcensoredmissingfills. Scenario25%notional is NOT approvedrisk and doesnotguarantee1%losslimit. Binarypayoff normalized-loss quarterKelly formula.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L))=.01145882base,stressfloored0;thisquantity is fractionat risk in average-loss units,not automaticallypositionnotional. FullvariablepayoffKelly/unboundedtailriskswouldneedseparatemodel. Adoptedsize0becauseCIincludes0andstressnegative; hardpositioncap212.7475 andnominalrisk8.5099arecaps,not sizingrecommendations. Counterexample costcouldactuallyremain6bp,butunknownexecutioncannotbeassumedfromdailyliquidity; operatorneed349.01 changesno probability. Source observation16076,backtestsQTR9090000; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

1. New NumPy seed2026090900 draws10000 joint overlapping3day blocks from last60completed dailylogreturns throughSep8, preserving cross-asset dependence within58distinct blocks. Mark-to-market after25bpfees eachleg, no slippage/stops/15minexecution. This simpler unconditional model isdistinct from original1103intraday stop simulation; no claimofupdatedintradayexitodds.2. Mean3dayreturnsBTC+.73676%,ETH+1.39588%,SOL+1.25803%; lossprobability50.29/47.23/48.09%. Fifthpercentilereturns-2.78008/-3.62782/-5.01531%, lossesat212.7475cap5.91455/7.71809/10.66996USD. SOL exceeds8.5099riskbudget even beforeunmodeledslippage.3. Counterexample cashmissespositivehistoricaldrift. This doesnot establishentryconditionedpayoff;58overlappingblocksare not10000independentobservations andtailscanworsen. Negative selectedstrategyKellyalreadybinds, so no risk-onlycap isapprovedsize. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Observation16043, simulation.json; historicaldailyrevisions andmissingextremeslimitinference.

1. Read prior1239/1224 original1103 reference:10000joint72hpaths,8109complete4hblocks fromJun–Aug15min,18blocks/path,seed2026090806,nointerpolation. Stop1ADR,target1.5ADR,+1Rhalf/BE,15minovershoot,25bpfee+5bpslip eachleg. 2. SamecompletedUTCday, retainADR14BTC3.013842%,ETH3.751064%,SOL5.786846%;95thpercentileloss at212.7475notional8.63794/10.77460/14.60955USD exceeds8.5099plannedrisk. Unconditionalmeanreturns-.566133/-.355353/-.190563% are riskmodel outputs, notentryconditionededge. 3. No fresh simulations claimed. Future volatility,missingbars andunseencrashes limittail inference;15minstop cannot guarantee1%realizedmaxloss. Kelly0alreadybinds, so no risk-onlycap becomesapprovedsize. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

1. Read1224/original1103:10000joint72hpaths,8109complete4hblocksJun–Aug15min,18blocks/path,seed2026090806,nointerpolation. Stop1ADR,target1.5ADR,+1Rhalf/BE,15minovershoot,25bpfee+5bpslip eachleg. 2. SamecompletedUTCday so preserveADR14BTC3.013842%,ETH3.751064%,SOL5.786846%; p95lossat212.7475cap8.63794/10.77460/14.60955USD exceeds8.5099riskallowance. Unconditionalmeans-.566133/-.355353/-.190563% notconditionalentryedge. 3. No rerun claimed; latestnegativeKelly controls size0 regardlessrisk-onlycap. Counterexample futurevolatilitydiffers; incompletebars,unseencrashes limit tails. Stops monitored15min do not guarantee1%maxrealizedloss. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Readback1211/1168/original1103, no newMonteCarlo.1. Original10000joint72hpaths,8109complete4hblocksJun–Aug15min,18blocks/path,seed2026090806;nointerpolation. Stop1ADR,target1.5ADR,+1Rhalf/BE,15mincheckswithovershoot,25bpfee+5bpslip/leg. 2. No newcompletedUTCday:ADR14BTC3.013842%,ETH3.751064%,SOL5.786846%. Original95%lossat212.7475cap8.63794/10.77460/14.60955USD exceeds8.5099riskbudget. Unconditionalmeans-.566133/-.355353/-.190563% are not entryconditionededge; riskonlycapsnotapprovedsizes. 3. Counterexamplefuturevolatilitymaydiffer; missingbars andunseencrasheslimittails. QuarterKelly0fromfailedvalidationcontrols. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees

1. Readback1184/1168 original1103:10000joint72hpaths,8109complete4hblocksJun–Aug15min,18blocks/path,seed2026090806,zero interpolation. 1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget,+1RhalfandBE,15minchecks includeovershoot,25bpfee+5bpslip/leg. 2. No newcompletedUTCday:ADR14BTC3.013842%,ETH3.751064%,SOL5.786846%. Original95%lossat212.7475cap8.63794/10.77460/14.60955USD >8.5099riskbudget. Unconditionalmean-.566133/-.355353/-.190563% is not entry-conditionededge. 3. No rerun justified by one extrahour. Risk-onlycaps not approvedsizes; quarterKelly0 controls. Counterexamplefuturevolmaychange; unknowncrashes canexceedhistoricaltails. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

1. Readbacksimulation1168/1103,notnewexperiment. Original10000joint72hpaths,8109complete4hourblocksJun–Aug15min,18blocks/path,seed2026090806;nointerpolation;1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget,+1Rhalfandbreakeven;15minchecksfillovershoot,25bpcreditedassetfee+5bpslip/leg. 2. No new completedUTCday; ADR14BTC3.013842%,ETH3.751064%,SOL5.786846% unchanged. Original unconditionalmeans-.566133/-.355353/-.190563%;95%lossat212.7475positioncap8.63794/10.77460/14.60955USD above8.5099riskbudget. 3. Unconditionalpathstatistics not conditionaltradeedge; risk-onlynotionals not allocations. No justified simulationrerunafterfourhours. QuarterKellyfromfailedselectedholdout remains0. Counterexample favorablefutureregime couldalterdistribution; requireindependentpositiveentryvalidation before sizingandcurrent15minexecutiontest. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Premises1 sample16trainingT1barrieroutcomes from1158; resampleiid100000paths20events,seed2026090808; preservecompleteeventreturnincludingcosts.2 Starting49.14,f25%bookmedian45.7793,p05/9544.0633/47.6608,lossprob99.787%;f100%median36.8356,p05/9531.5654/43.3056,lossprob99.818%,probDD20=81.486%.f0retains49.14beforeexternalcosts.3 EmpiricalexitdistributiontrainingN16target0%,stop25%,time75%; one-session1.5ATRtargethistoricallynotachievedintraining.4 Trainingedgep12.5%,W2.92334%,L2.01729% => clippedquarterKelly0. Conclusionadoptzero;quarter-bookscenarioisnotquarterKellyrecommendation. CounterargumentMonteCarlotaildependsheavilyon16selectedoldregimeeventsandIIDassumption; simulationaddsnoindependentobservationsandcannotcaptureunseenearlynews/mergerregime. 20eventsnot23days, nofalsemonthlyforecast. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=AVO ;primarydatedcorpusrecorded; scriptresearch/test.py. Fees10bpslip10bpeachside,sweepsnotoptimized.

1. This is readback/application of06UTCsimulation1103, NOTanewMonteCarloexperiment. FreshSep7ADR14recalculation matches modelBTC3.013842%,ETH3.751064%,SOL5.786846%; no newcompletedday, so no basis toreseed/refitfortwohourlybars. 2. Original10000joint72hpaths uses8109complete4hourreturnblocks fromJun–Aug15minbars,18blocks/path,seed2026090806,0interpolation. Stop1ADR,target1.5ADR,+1Rhalf/BErest;15minendchecks fillobservedovershoot;25bpcreditedassetfees and5bpslip/leg. OriginalunconditionalmeansBTC-.566133%,ETH-.355353%,SOL-.190563%; these arenotentry-conditionedwinprobabilities. 3. At212.7475USDpositioncap,95%loss8.63794/10.77460/14.60955USD exceeds8.5099plannedrisk. Equal235.86fundsplitjointp05=-12.13717USD,probabilitylosing>account1%=25.98%. Correlatedexposuredoesnotremoverisk. ConditionalfractionalKellymustcomefromvalidatedentryoutcomes; hourlyselectedUNIexpectancynegative=>clippedKelly0. Risk-onlynotionals209.59/168.03/123.92USDfrompriorquantilesarenotapprovedsizesorhardlossbounds. 4. Counterexamplelowerfuturevolreducesrisk; unseencrashorseverequotefailurecanexceedhistoricaltails. Missing/zero-volumebarsandblockjoinslimittailmodel. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Conclusionretainsizezero; unchangedrangesandnewquotedepthstudy1146give noreason tousevenuecapasriskbudget. NoexistingholdingsneedR,targetprogressortimeexits.

Numpyseed2026090808;20000 IIDbootstrapmeans from13holdoutcostedtrades give95%meaninterval[-1.70934,1.71237]%. p=.46153846,avgwin.03488118,avgloss.03056249; Kelly p-(1-p)/(win/loss) negative, clampedquarterKelly0. Circularblocklength3,20trades/path,20000paths:10%equityexposure lossprob55.23%,median-.147805%,p95DD2.392424%;25% lossprob55.555%,median-.413686%,p95DD5.919851%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; fixedentryledger analysis1144. These are empiricalconditionalstressillustrations, not calibratedfutureprobabilities;13trades missunseenregimes and extremegaps. Initialcashincluded inpeak. No unconditionalbullishpricepaths usedtooverridefailedrule; no actual15minexitprobabilityverified, so capitalzero. Accounttwohistoricaloperatorwins have no empiricalavgloss and cannotreplace this sample.

Premises:1.Netmanagedholdoutp.47457627,W1.760979%,L2.269039% yieldsnegativeKellybeforefloor, quarterKelly0. Requiredsize0, notfractionofpublishedalpha.2.Numpyseed90808,20000circular20sessionreturnblocks,25% hypotheticaldailymaintainedequitysleeve,850.99initial:basePnLmean-.741857USD,p5/50/95[-6.535698,-.730804,7.415420],loss51.27%,intraperiod8.5099loss2.13%;stressmean-1.309079,p5/50/95[-7.162784,-.857535,6.764915],loss52.93%,riskhit2.36%. Bothsampledzero349.01gain,nottruezerofutureprobability.3.Parentmean+1.670102,p5-16.967808,p95+20.820203,loss39.48%,riskhit32.795%;illustratesriskomittedbypositiveparentreturn.4.Historicalconditionalpaths ignoreoverheadandquotephase, notactualwhole-shareorders; dailyrebalanced25%sleeveisdiagnostic, noorders. Riskcap8.5099accountUSD,notfund1%;fund245.69/position212.7475. Actualrisk0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; archiveddiag.py anddiagnostics.json.

Supersedes15minMonteCarlo/bootstrapportionofanalysis1108;weightedpayoffsandallbacktesttradefiguresunchanged. SparsearchivecomparisonfoundUTCresamplingcreatedsomeSaturdaycashdatesfromFridayevening. Correctstudy15.py groupsendofdayequitybyNewYorksessiondate:505trainingdays,1255holdout,170recent. Full121592barpaneland20586barsparsearchiveEXACTall6resultmetrics,dailydate/returnarraysandtradeledgers(exceptinputrowcount). Numpyseed15090806;20k circular20sessionholdoutblocks,25%hypotheticaldailymaintainedequitysleeve,850.99initial,overheadexcluded. BasePnLmean-.096519592USD,p5/50/95[-2.045575015,.187208073,1.514091561],loss43.765%;stressmean-.361913952,p5/50/95[-2.628822037,0,1.082598490],loss49.25%. Bothsampledzero>=349.01gainor>=8.5099intraperiodloss,notproofzerofutureprobability. 3monthblock20kbootstrapbase95%monthlymeanCI[-.173431825,.063907263]%,stress[-.306064286,-.058199962]%. Weightedholdoutp.566667,W.392950233%,L.625616533%,quarterKelly0;actualallocation0. EarlierdailybarMCin1108unaffected. Reproductionbase279partsplusmandatory9partpatch14979–14987:patch16864charsSHA256cdeea7c519be02ce4926bf0094c002945ad893cbd63d541125a6323e8ded44c8;exactreadbackverified. Overwritebasefileswithpatchbeforeuse. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; correctedstudy15.py/diag15.py. Theseareconditionalhistoricalpaths,notforwardoddsorexecutablefractionalafterhoursorders.

1.PrimarydailySPYholdoutunitp.516667,W1.052604%,L1.456698%,naiveKelly0. WeightedcashsleeveW.310779%,L.588356%,Kelly0. 15minunitp.566667,W1.216512%,L1.561158%givesnaivequarterKelly.264182%butweightedW.392950%,L.625617%,weightedmean-.048429%,quarterKelly0. Do notsizefromunitreturnswhileapplyingcorrelatedvolweights.2.Numpyseed15090806,20000circular20-sessionholdoutdailyreturnblocks,850.99initialcash,25%hypotheticalequitysleeve maintaineddaily. 15minbase20sessionPnLmean-.092760USD,p5/median/p95[-2.044991,.176275,1.514092],loss42.835%;stressmean-.348726,p5/median/p95[-2.628822,0,1.082598],loss48.25%. Neitherhadpath>=349.01gainor>=8.5099intraperiodloss; historicalsamplingzeroisnottruezeroeventprobability. Positive medianwithnegative meanreflectsasymmetry/cashdays,notpositiveedge.3.3monthblockbootstrap20k,holdout60months:15minmonthlymeanCI[-.168128,.062841]%base,[-.299049,-.058098]%stress. Allfiguresrecordeddiag15observations. Priorseed90806dailybarMCSPYmanagedp5/50/95[-1.965645,.026167,1.382739],47.815%loss; parent[-4.168095,.904753,6.113137],35.855%loss;EFA/EEMsameprotocolrecordeddiagnostics.4.Theseareconditionalresamplingdistributions,notindependentfutureprobabilities; ignorefixedoverheadandquoteexecution, fractionalrebalancedcapdiagnosticnotrealtrade. Equity850.99,quant245.69,position212.7475,normalrisk8.5099;actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; diagnostics.py/diag15.py/weighted.py.

Premise1: June–August2026reference gives8832quarter-hour gridrows; only8109jointcompletecontiguous4hourreturnblocks valid. FullJun1–Sep7download BTC9504/9504,ETH9430/9504,SOL9479/9504; zero-volumebars192/1439/2442. Missingreturnsneverfilled; omittingincompleteblocksandusingquotescanunderstateilliquidity. Premise2:10000joint72hpaths bootstrap18four-hourblocks withseed2026090806, retainingcrossassetcorrelation BTCETH.86378/BTCSOL.79544/ETHSOL.82336; discontinuousblockjoinsandfinitehistoricaltailsarelimitations. Premise3: illustrativeSep7ADR14stops3.01384/3.75106/5.78685%,targets1.5ADR,+1RhalfandBErest,checksquarter-hourendmarks,fillsobservedovershootnotthreshold. Exact25bpcreditedassetbuy/fiatsellfees+5bpslip/leg;10bpstress. Noentrysignalconditioned; theseareNOTstrategywinrates. BTC/ETH/SOLbase72hmean-.56613/-.35535/-.19056%; positivepathfractions.4530/.4879/.4878. Stopfractions.3762/.3753/.2457,target.2015/.2472/.1424,BE.0676/.0670/.0366,time.3547/.3105/.5753. Terminal5thpercentile-4.06018/-5.06450/-6.86708%; at212.7475USDcap95loss8.63794/10.77460/14.60955USD exceeds8.5099risk. Probabilitylosing>8.5099atcap6.04/37.65/29.38%. Risk-only95notional209.59/168.03/123.92USD isquantilebased,NOTapprovedsizeorhardbound. Plannedstopnetcost3.54642/4.27959/6.30419% includesfeesandslip. Doubleslipmeans-.67049/-.45264/-.29705%; fullfiguresrecordedinobservations. Joint235.86USD equal3allocation(78.62each)mean-.87429USD,p05-12.13717,p01-14.10389,probabilityaccount1%loss25.98%; doubleslipmean-1.11655,p05-12.28669,prob26.91%. Splittingcapitalamongcorrelatedmajorsdoesnotremovejointlossrisk. Who benefitsfromunvalidatedturnover:venuefees; then cashshrinks,plannedrisksizefalls,runwayshortens. Conclusionriskdiagnosticrejectscap-as-riskbudgetanddoesnotjustifyanyentry. QuarterKellymustbefittedfromindependentstrategyoutcomes; approvedsize0becauseentryvalidationfails. Counterexamplefuturelowvolregimemayreduceloss; unseencrashmayexceedallempiricaltails. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Code montecarlo.py/results/mc.json.

Premises1 100000seededpaths resample complete trainingT5eventreturns,20trades perpath,fund49.14,exposurefractions0/.25/.5/1. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE,SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .2 LOVEtrainingN16 fullfractionmedian90.576 after20trades,P20%drawdown25.353%; SFIXN20 median30.968,P20%drawdown96.414%,Ploss93.981%. These20quarterlyevents are NOT20days or monthend forecasts; empiricalresamplingignoresparameteruncertainty/unseenjumps, no asset-priceforecast.3 Separately normalize completefive-sessiontraining OHLCblocks toSep4entry, priorcurrentATRstop1x/target1.5x,conservativebarriers/costs: LOVE16blockswin43.652%,stop56.348%,target43.652%,mean-.03678%,p5-4.3688%,p95+5.5552%;SFIX20blockswin29.825%,stop70.175%,mean-1.4850%,p5-4.6678%,p95+6.0037%. Allpathsmetbarrierunderthesehistoricalblocks,notproofrealtradesmustexit.4 NetRR1.272/1.286<1.5; LOVEhorizon5unavailabletoday. Conclusion adopt0,notpositivehistoricalKelly. ReportedmechanicalquarterKelly usesbinarywin/lossriskfraction,notnotional; exactfractionallog-growth sizing requiresjointpayoff/gapmodel andfailedvalidationpreventsallocation. No earlyearningsnewshazardor15minfilllikelihood estimated.30%gapfullfund14.742>8.5099riskbudget.

Premises:1 Initialize repricing consistently with bidask and clock.2 Expected base hits must not depend on outsized target overshoots.3 Conditional Gaussian simulations cannot supply empiricaloptionp/W/L. Seed2026090808,N30000 per2contracts x3physicalsigmas x2IVstates=360000paths per experiment; original and quoteconsistent diagnostic total720000. Four sessionsSep8 13:50 throughSep11 20UTC,25 firstday and26 later15minchecks=103, 3 untradeable overnightgaps. Physical price drift0 (logdrift-.5variance), dailyvariance sigma²/252 split by TRAIN-only overnight/intraday squaredmoments, independentnormals,firstgap omitted; firstpartialday receives full intradayvariance, slightly optimistic, tails/crosscovariance/volclustering omitted. BSmid minus halffrozenFriday spread; r.04,qTLT.0474 trailingyieldproxy/ETHA0, earlyexercise/discretecash absent. NonsynchronousFriday entry is counterfactualTuesday. Quoteconsistent pricingIV solves BSmid=(bid+ask)/2 atTuesdayclock:TLT9.309567% vsfeed9.96%;ETHA58.261514% vsfeed58.62%. StopTLT.02/ETHA.03 bothbelowactualbid.05/.07; targets floorFridaymodelbid at S-2ATR to cents .31/.21 (originalfeedIVtarget .33/.21), not optimized. Fullpremium+assumedroundtripfees6.20/8.20<=8.5099. Terminal liquidation atbid; stop/targetfills atfirstcheckmodelbid, targetovershootcap stress. TLTquoteconsistentbase p.190333,W23.173718,L4.648795,mean+.646757,capped-.016197;calibratedmean+1.067221,capped+.258835;lowphysicalmean-1.089843,capped-1.361400. ETHAbasep.304633,W10.765094,L5.159938,mean-.308642,capped-.773303;calibrated+.162641,capped-.478444;low-1.432313,capped-1.615284. All80%quoteconsistentIVstates startbelowstop: initialinvalidstates, not certainfutureloss. Original TLTbase+1.876271 partly artificial initialmodelbid.064030>entryask.06 vsobservedbid.05; do not use. OriginalETHAcalibrated+.355611 also failscapped-.309546. QuarterKelly .25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)) clipped0 yields positive diagnostic fractions onlyselectfavorableassumptions; no empiricaloptionedge, approvedsize0. Exactall24p/W/L,stops,targets,probabilities,inputs recordedobservations. Fee0 shiftsmeans+.20;fee1.30 shifts-1.10; quoteconsistentTLTcalibrated capped becomes-.841165 under1.30fee. No robustcost/forecast/IVsurvival. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/TLT?feed=indicative ; /data/option-chain/ETHA?feed=indicative ; /data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239454/ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf ; research/sim.py and sim_quote.py.

Numpy seed2026090806:20000 IID mean-bootstrap samples of17SIPcostedholdoutreturns give95%meaninterval[-3.05764%,+.392927%]. Point p=.294118,w=.0411832,l=.0371447 yieldsnegativeKelly,floorquarterKelly0. Circularblocksof3consecutivetrades,20tradepaths×20000: at10%equityexposure,lossprob97.495%,medianreturn-2.72194%,p95maxDD5.40579%;at25%,lossprob97.615%,median-6.72086%,p95DD13.02296%. Initialcashincluded inpeak. Small empiricalsample and unseenlosses make these conditionalstress illustrations, not forecastprobabilities. Separate seed2026090807: resample170complete2026RTHdayblocks,includingovernightopen relativepriordailyclose,20000ten-daypaths,entry133.35/risk4.857175/target1.5R,15minobservedcloses,cost30bpapproxroundtrip. Unconditionalfixedpathmean+.68369%,target51.19%,stop47.145%,timeout1.665%,loss47.75%,p05-6.98464%. Halfat+1R/stopBE scenario mean+.52896%,target45.62%,stop39.45%,BE14.54%,timeout.39%;half taken51.14%. Positive means inherit2026upwarddrift and ignore entry conditioning; observed strategy loses22.34%, so cannot size from unconditional51%targetodds. No 20–04quotes/executablebid or stressregime coverage; halfsharemanagement impracticalforwhole-shareafterhourstreatment. Atone133.35share,p05model loss9.314 exceeds8.5099riskbudget despite nominal4.857stoprisk. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CF&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . No proposal.

1. Primarymanagedholdoutp=.48148148,W1.700601%,L2.068431%;quarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L)))=0. USintradaymanagedalso0. Parentbaseline naivequarterKelly2.075070%butcoststressnegative,meanCIspans0andnoactualstop/targetvalidation,soactual0.2. Numpyseed90804,20000resamplesofcontiguous4calendarweeksfrom261holdoutweeklyreturns,circularwrap,25%hypotheticalaccountallocation eachweek,initial850.99. Primarymanaged4weekPnL5/50/95percentiles[-14.280032,-1.930133,10.879991]USD,lossfrequency58.595%;intradaymanaged[-15.629881,-2.296366,9.996975],61.1%. Parent[-14.160696,-.023203,18.994337],50.745%. Thesearehistoricalblock-resamplingfrequencies,notcalibratedforwardprobabilities;weeklyresetweights/fractionalassumptionmaydifferfromactualaccount,overheadexcluded.3. No sampledpathreaches349.01USDaccountgap;thisisnotproofzeroactualprobabilityandcannotjustifyanincomeprojection. Quantbook245.69,venuepositioncap212.7475,normalrisk8.5099. EWGfoursharesfitsarithmetic,notedgegate.4. ThreeownclosedtradesarePEADandoperatorliquidated,notindependentreversaltrials;33.33%win,7.93994%averagewin,5.26143%averagelossprovidesnooverride. Noarrivalquotesorintendedexitsamplesforslippage/stop-hitprobabilities.5. Main36managedholdoutvariantsnegativeeven12zero-cost;thereforeinsufficientedgeisnotmerelyourchosenfeeestimate. Real15min,overnightgaps,whole-sharepartialmanagement andfuturedistributionstillunknown. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; query_tradesfundquant04:01UTC ; diagnosticsarchived310parts.

Numpy seed20260908, after20000 mean-bootstrap draws, resample the7 costed holdout returns from observation12763 IID into20000 paths of20 trades; compound10% hypothetical equity exposure per trade and include initialcapital in drawdown peak. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Loss probability99.77%, median cumulative return-2.19837%,95th percentile maximumDD3.20858%. This is a conditional empirical stress illustration, not a forward forecast or15-minute exit simulation. Single-period IID sampling omits clustering, unseen crashes and political regime changes; adverse results cannot be rescued by a persuasive supply story. Negative point quarterKelly is floored0; authorized size0. Venue limits212.7475/position,278.67fund and8.5099 nominal risk are ceilings, not targets. No event win probability is calibrated.

Premises:1 Value surplus must translate to realizable exits.2 Stops cannot guarantee full-premium loss limits or overnight execution.3 Conditional simulation is not empirical option p/W/L. Numpy seed2026090805, 2puts x3physicalforecasts x2IVstates x30000=360000paths. Model five sessionsSep8–14 at FridayS15.19/ask.07 (counterfactual Tuesday quote). Physical daily variance sigma²/252 from base/clip/RV60; paired Gaussian overnight/intraday logtotals normalized to measured second moments .000665257/.001140850 with crossmoment-.0000679354; Cholesky covariance, intraday Brownian bridge26quarters, first overnight skipped, -.5dailyvariance logdrift applied intraday. Initial quote check plus26quarterhour checks/day; cannot sell overnight. EuropeanBS bid approximation with remaining calendarT,r.04,q0, frozen FridayIV or .8IV, less halfFriday spread floored0; American exercise premium and changing spread/skew omitted, so not validated execution model. Targets from Sept14bid at S-2ATR=13.272343 using originalIV: floor to cents .15/.16, not fitted for return. Diagnostic stop.03, fee$.20roundtrip assumed. Fullrisk$7.20, targets net$7.80/$8.80 -> fullrisk reward1.083/1.222; nominal stoprisk$4.20 would imply1.857/2.095 but ignores gaps and spread. Oct2 initial Fridaybid.01 is already belowstop.03; initial modelbid also fails, all6scenarios immediately stop. These p=0 outcomes diagnose an incoherent entry/stop combination, NOT forecast certainty of loss; never deploy that stop. Oct16 baseline conditional p.263733,W$9.669162,L$4.484038,mean-$0.751367; clipping mean-$1.35568,RV60-$1.489095. Capping favorable exit overshoots at target lowers means further to-1.10214/-1.56129/-1.66335. .8IV causes initial repricing stop, not proof IV will drop. Every12conditionalmeannegative; quarterKelly truncated0 (actual empiricalp/W/L remains UNKNOWN). Costs0/$1.30 would shift eachmean +.20/-1.10, stillnegative. Targets already use2ATR bearish movement within5sessions; do not increase them to meet funding need. Exactscenario p/W/L,stophits,targethits stored. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/PATH?feed=indicative ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=PATH&feed=sip ; local research/sim.py .

Premises1 verifiedtimestamp-complete preincidentJune-Aug BTC hourlylogreturn data,2206returns;2 empiricalmovingblock bootstrap samples2contiguous24hblocks from2183overlappingblocks into20000 48hpaths,seed20260908;3 charge25bpfees eachside,omitspread/impact so netpathsoptimistic. Terminal1/5/50/95/99percentiles−7.3666/−5.1632/−.3336/+5.0629/+9.1826%; fractionpositive.4455is unconditionalpathprobability NOT trade winrate or eventedge. 95th adverseexcursion6.3012% implies13.4056USD at212.7475positioncap,exceeding8.5099plannedrisk. Risk-onlynotional135.0529USD wouldmatchthatquantile, NOT hardmaximumloss; tailand15minexitgapsunboundedbyquantile. No stoporprofitpolicy simulated and no calibratedeventpayoff; approvednotionalzero andnoKellycomputedfromunconditionalpaths. Validity positioncapalone doesnotensure1%equityrisk. Soundness limitedsinglehistoricalregime andfiniteempiricaltails; counterexamplefuturevolatilitylower,butnewcrashcouldexceedallresampledblocks. No optimizedstops/targets fromthisrun. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Observation12417; localanalyze.py.