Stats

NumPy seed 91106; 50,000 circular two-trade block paths of 20 completed trades, using 31 training outcomes from the raw RTH 15-minute policy in 2638. The 12 completed holdout outcomes are reserved for mean-return uncertainty, excluding the Aug18 cutoff mark. Training wins48.387%, average win8.87505%, average loss6.86037%; binary-payoff half-Kelly=max(0,0.5[p-(1-p)/(W/L)])=4.24528%. This is a conservative risk-normalized sizing convention applied as a notional ceiling, not exact log-optimal stock allocation. Quarter probe1.06132% account=$9.03173; stress fee5/slip50bp yields$1.87672. Base probe simulation median20-trade account return0.13656%, probability of a losing path38.58%, 95th-percentile completed-trade drawdown0.76248%; these omit within-trade equity excursions. Holdout mean95% block-bootstrap interval[-2.94032,6.67445]% crosses zero. Zero of12 completed holdout exits reach3R; 4reach+2R partial. Training-based simulated chance of at least one target in20trades74.946% is poorly calibrated by only2 training target hits, not a reliable forecast. Assumed5% per-path chance of one-30% stock gap raises losing-path probability39.932%; assumption, not measured frequency. One share54.41 exceeds both probes; its30% gap costs16.323=1.91812% account. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuer dividend calendar in2638. Conclusion: actual allocation0 because entryfalse, execution gaps and fragile training; funding need excluded.

Premises:1 Train15netreturns only,p7/15=.466667,W3.093094%,L3.607650%; invested-capitalhalfKelly=max(0,.5*(p/L-(1-p)/W))=0 usingdecimalreturns. Target1/15,stop7/15,time7/15 arehistoricaldailyexitfrequencies,notapprovalorforwardodds. 2 numpy20000paths,10trades,circular2-eventblocks,seed91106; reinvestfullfundmedian-5.44436%,loss69.38%,DD>=20%10.435%,5thpercentile-20.60249%;quarterfractionmedian-1.26745%,loss67.785%. 3 Rebalance.54945055fundfraction(one27share-sizedtoday,notfuturefixedsharecount):nogapmedian-2.87017%,loss68.41%; assumed1%probabilitypertradeof-30%shock makesmedian-3.68634%,DD20prob6.09%,5th-18.69585%. 5%shockscenarioDD20prob28.71%. Allscenariosrecorded; gapoddsAREASSUMPTIONS,notfit. Tenquarterlyeventsare~2.5years,notremaining20days. Bootstrap omitsnewregime/unknownshocktails;0cashreturnexcludessystemcosts. Conclusionapprovedallocation0; MonteCarlo cannotrepairnegativeexpectancy. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Frozen edge: BB Sep10 S7.54; Oct2C8 close.40 requires +11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires -11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive issuer-dated earnings Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpostclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8train,last4holdout. Neither current40% gate nor documented3xexpectedpayout passes. Issuer Sep10 says 'Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET.': https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 . Oct2expiry8dayslater; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdle exceedsmedian1.418331pp. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts Sep10 closes; historical issuer quotes/sources observations24113–24126 and24585–24596. 1. CounterfactualEuropeanBS calls,r=dividend0,initial22calendardaystoOct2. SolveIVfromsingleSep10markandS (notobservedIV):.40=>79.2860%,.15=>43.4344%. Choosebaseline30/50/80%ASSUMED; eventvariance=initialIV²*T-baseline²*T mustbenonnegative. Preserveeventvariancebeforeannouncement,removeatfirstpostclose. Onepricecannotidentifyeventandbaselinevariance; Americanexercise/microstructureunmodeled. 2. Rescaleeachhistorical10-intervalstockpathfrom7.54; remainingdays22,21,18,17,16,15,14,11,10,9,8. Defaultprior-releasesessionist8forAMC,t9forBMO; holdthroughist10. NoAMCevent-daysale mislabeleddefault. Targetdailyclose>=4premium+.05 gives3Rnetofassumedcostagainstpremiumrisk; halfpremiummarkisdrawdowndiagnostic, NOTanorderstop. 3. Current.40 withbaseline30/50%: preexit3Rtarget0/12; post1/12; premeanterminal/all-incost1.01497/.928319x,post1.22854/1.27384x. Cheap.15/baseline30%: pretarget2/12,post5/12; meanterminal1.15161x/2.76422x,postmedian.906062x andhalfpremiumbreach8/12. Othercheapbaselinesinfeasible, notsilentlyfloored;current80%alsoinfeasible. 4. Thesearepath-scenariofrequencies, notexecutableexitoddsorhistoricaloptionbacktest. AssumedIVdecaycanflipmean; calibrationtomarknotvalidation. No3xexpectedpayoutdocumentedandnoholdthroughoverridefromthismodel.

Frozen edge: BB Sep10 S7.54; Oct2C8 close.40 requires +11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires -11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive issuer-dated earnings Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpostclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8train,last4holdout. Neither current40% gate nor documented3xexpectedpayout passes. Issuer Sep10 says 'Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET.': https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 . Oct2expiry8dayslater; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdle exceedsmedian1.418331pp. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts Sep10 closes; historical issuer quotes/sources observations24113–24126 and24585–24596. 1. NumPyseed9110600,30kpaths/scenario,20sequentialcounterfactualone-contracttickets. Samplehistoricaleventintrinsicvalues100max(7.54*(1+r)-8,0); zeroresidualtimeisliquidationstress, notactualoptionforecast. Initialfund178.71/otherbooks672.28fixed;premiumgatedat5%updatedaccount,fullcostmustfitfundcash. Deductpremium+.05/shareASSUMEDcost. Simulationforceshypotheticaltickets despitecurrentKelly0; it isnotrecommendedexecution. 2. Current.40mark/.45total: iidall12 medianending104.65334,5–95%88.71–127.29315;97.58667%losefundmoney,96.64333%cannotcomplete20 (cap/fundingstop, notbankruptcy),mean4.60373tickets. 3. Hypothetical.15mark/.20total: iidmedian364.55664,5–95%19.66873–713.14028,loss16.35%,medianDD33.57395%. RepeatingeachsampledoutcomethreetimesmodelsSERIALdependence, notthreeBBpositions: median314.08480,5–95%6.10911–963.60501,loss37.28667%,medianDD54.10603%. Train-onlycheaploss27.00667%iid/46.73667%cluster; fullsampleoptimismisnotrobust. 4. Logutilityoptimizationofintrinsicnetpayoffs givescurrenthalfKelly0; hypotheticalcheapall12halfKelly8.09373%,train5.07705%,beforemodeluncertainty; capatnormal3%25.5297absentconviction,5%42.5495conviction,6%51.0594absolute. One.15premium=$15,1.76265%account; plusreserve$20,2.35020%. Three$20costs=$60,33.57395%book/7.05061%account, showingbookconcentrationdespiteaccountcap. Noindependenceassumedandnoorder.

1 ETHrolling480hour holdout6trades mean2.874945%,20,000IIDbootstrap95%meanCI[-1.587870,8.390857]%, besttrade15.2404%;exclude beststill1.735528%compounded. Calendarhour7tradesmean1.206384%,CI[-2.735977,6.438506]%,exbest-6.869318%. Daily5tradesmean-3.521877%,CI[-9.559165,3.335655]%. These are reusedtrades, notnewindependentproof. 2 Cash-constrainedloggrowthgrid f0..1step.001 givesdaily0,calendarhour1,rollinghour1;halfwealthfractions0/.5/.5. Fund235.86 =>117.93fullETH/29.4825quarterprobe beforeeligibility. Fixed50%notional bootstrap terminal loss13.39%rolling/34.195%calendar, rolling5th/95th terminalreturns-3.128142/+24.133260%; modeluncertaintylarge, notforecast. 3 Separateunconditionalpathstress draws10000paths/asset,20complete24hourblocks fromlast365days. BTC/ETH/SOLblocks363/362/361;current2ATRstop5.9418/7.1973/10.0209%,net3Rpriceups20.6377/24.4043/32.8751%;targetfirst4.25/8.12/3.94%,stopfirst59.81/64.69/55.19%,meanstaticnet-1.8309/-2.0018/-2.4120%. 25bpfees10bpslip,firsthourlyclosebarriercross/20daytimeout,nochannel/trail; notconditionalbreakoutstrategy. ETHcurrent netstop7.845261% implieshalfnotionalrisk9.251916USD/quarter2.312979USD=.271799%account, but actualsize0absentsignal. Validity: seeded91104 empiricalbootstrap/conditionalpayoff arithmetic. Soundness: smallN, IIDtrades/blockstationarity, unseenjumps andclose-markexecution limit forecast; cannotuse unconditionalnegativepaths todisproveconditionaledge. Conclusion keep hypotheticalsizeillustrationdistinctfromorder; actonlyonactualvalidatedsignal. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Observed sources: EGA August12 report gives227 cells as of MondayAugust10, https://media.ega.ae/ega-delivers-resilient-h1-2026-performance-maintaining-operational-and-supply-chain-continuity-amid-regional-disruption/ ; August26 gives315/1262, roughly one week stabilization, https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/ . Implied interval speed88/16=5.5cells/day;947remaining/5.5=172.18days plus7stabilization reachesFebruary21,2027. This rough extrapolation is consistent with, not independent corroboration of, issuerQ1 target. Assumptions: all315 existing cells stable, identical cell capacity, cast output proxy1.6Mt/year from https://media.ega.ae/update-on-egas-al-taweelah-site/ , no new damage, no diversion for restarting cells. NumPy50000paths seed91104; fixed speed perpath triangular3/5.5/8cells/day, arbitrary uncertainty not estimated. Completion days afterAug26 P5/50/95=138.35/178.92/256.53; model81.662% beforeMarch31 is NOT real-world forecast odds. Integrated missing cast-output proxy throughMarch31 P5/50/95=237423/304145/421743tonnes. Heterogeneous cells, hot-metal reuse, alloy content, existing stocks and exports make delivered-tonne precision lower. Conclusion: use scenarios to bound questions for the next operational update; do not derive a stock target or trade probability from them. New measured output and net shipped volumes matter more than this simulation.

Use training payoffs, not favorable holdout, from fixed tests2521–2522; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all . CSTM train p=40%, mean win8.4956%, mean loss7.6217% gives clamped halfKelly0. KALU p=41.9355%, win10.7182%, loss7.6758% gives rough halfKelly0.176252% of equity; quarter of that is0.0440631%, or$0.374973 at equity850.99. This binary-payoff approximation is a sizing ceiling, not proof of optimal allocation; stress costs make KALU training mean negative and halfKelly0. Both currently fail entry, so actual allocation0. Whole-share KALU158.42 and stock minimum1 exceed the hypothetical probe; do not round up. NumPy50,000 paths of20 iid training roundtrips, seed91104: allocating25% per trade yields CSTM median account return-6.56%, loss probability73.34%,95th-percentile drawdown22.50%; KALU median-0.98%, loss probability53.40%,95th drawdown19.89%. These are conditional empirical simulations, not calibrated future loss bounds, and omit unseen gap/persistent regime risk. Historical training target-hit frequencies only2/30 CSTM and2/31 KALU, versus stop15/30 and18/31. Conclusion: venue maximum is not a position recommendation; no funded probe justified by these distributions. Funding shortfall does not change odds, target or size.

Premises:1 Sample primary5 stressholdout dailycashportfolio, notbestneighbor, asrecorded.2 Seed9110400 draws10000paths fromoverlapping21-sessionblocks,12blocks=252sessions. Preserveswithinblockdependence, missesnewregimes,longmemoryandunseenfat-tailgaps; notforecast.3 Applyingfull187.22USDfund gives21session P5/median/P95PnL −13.13308/−1.058883/+14.38771USD,55.84%lossprobability; zero empiricalpaths gain349.01USD, whichisnotproofimpossibility.252session return P5/median/P95−25.72362/−3.98388/+24.46864%,DDmedian/P95 17.16606/30.95414%.4 HalfKelly=0.5*(p−(1−p)/(avgwin/avgloss)),clippedat0. Primary stress p44.3137%,W/L1.22364 =>negativeunclippedKelly,live0; trainingstressalso0. Baselineplugin3.146%doesnotoverridecostfailure. Accountnormal3%risk25.5297USD,positionceiling212.7475,fund187.22; alladditionalcaps, notentitlementtomaximumsize. Afullfundgaplosswouldbe22%account, sofundcapaloneisnotagapbudget. Conclusion sizezero; fundingneeddoesnotdeterminebarriers. Counterargumentresamplingmissesfuturebonanza accepted,butnoindependentpositiveedgejustifiespayingforitwiththisrule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py/json.

Edge test frozen Sep11: BB S7.54, Oct2C8 close.40 requires+11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires-11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive quarterly releases Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpost-newsclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8 C2/P1, last4 C1/P1. Neither40%gate nor documented3xexpectedoptionpayout passes. Oct2expiry8daysafter Sep24event; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdleexceedsmedian1.418331pp so noholdthrough exception. Sources: issuer-dated event observations24113–24126, https://investors.blackberry.com/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. 1. Fixed historical close moves are applied to7.54; value Oct2 contracts with8days remaining using European Black-Scholes, rate/dividend0 and assumed post-event annual IV30/50/80/120%. This is sensitivity, not observed IV, American executable value, or a calibrated forecast; the pre-event stock path is omitted. 2. Call mean gross payout .7999/.9036/1.1211/1.4841 times .40 premium; put .2878/.3628/.5480/.8956 times .32. No scenario gives3xmean or a4xsingle-event gross target. 3. NumPy20k paths,max20 whole-contract tickets,178.71fundcash and672.28otherbooks fixed,1.30assumed roundtrip fee, each new premium<=5% current equity. Intrinsic-only liquidation yields halfKelly0 both. Call93.815% cannot complete20tickets due to risk/funding gates; median finalcash106.6357 and funddrawdown46.2201%. Put100% cannotcomplete20; medianfinal16.6977/drawdown90.6565%. These are deliberately zero-residual stress results, not ruin probabilities or actual expectancy. 4. Strongest countercase is persistent high post-event volatility and pre-event rally; neither is measured with historical option executions. Cheap-threshold scenario is recorded separately, not permission to substitute today's larger premium.

20,000numpyseed911iid10-tradepaths from134trainingnetreturns only,fullcapitalreinvestment sensitivity. Median-25.03%,loss85.595%,drawdown>20%86.415%,5thpercentile-43.61%. Trainingp17.9104%,W11.3814%,L5.3252%;halfKellycapital=max(0,.5*(p/L-(1-p)/W))=0. Ignoresdependence/regimeandunseenFDAgaps; notpricepathforecastorapprovalprobability. No estimatedFDAwinodds justified. Fullfund49.14 loss=5.7745%account;quarterfund12.285totalloss1.4436%account, butaffordabilityalonecannotrepairnegativeexpectancy. 3%accountnormalrisk25.5297 and25%positioncap212.7475do notrequireusingthem. Currentallocation0. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .

Edge test: PLAY S8.17 Oct16C10 .40/P7 .50 require +27.294982%/-20.440636%,0/12 each, medianabs10.624339%; VRA S3.05 Oct16P2.5 .10 requires-21.311475%,0/12,medianabs10.350471%; SFIX S2.85 Oct16P2.5 .15 requires-17.543860%,2/8,medianabs16.578014%; TCOM S38.70 Oct16C45 .32/P35 .48 require+17.105943%/-10.801034%,0/8 and2/8,medianabs4.590973%. All fail40%; no documented actual-option expectedpayout>=3x. Sources: issuer schedules in event observations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars; catalog closes datedSep9 checked withSep10 delayed bars. 1. Map historic eventclose returns tocurrentS; putintrinsic=max(K-Snext,0), dividepremium; residual timevalue unmodeled, so this is a stressfloor NOT expected traded-option price. 2. NumPy seed911,10000iid20ticketpaths,3%equitypremiumcompounded; no optionfees or serialdependence, no forecasts beyond empiricalsample. [{"symbol":"PLAY","N":12,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.11141982422518588,"max_intrinsic_multiple":0.9413206521739124,"coverage":0,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-41.95744298289101,"p05_return":-44.955033349458404,"profit_odds":0,"median_max_drawdown":41.95744298289101},{"symbol":"TCOM","N":8,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.48520541234206205,"max_intrinsic_multiple":2.408972282217414,"coverage":2,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-28.24022154569934,"p05_return":-38.907738008078596,"profit_odds":0.0073,"median_max_drawdown":29.4653494506684},{"symbol":"VRA","N":12,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.028368794326241547,"max_intrinsic_multiple":0.34042553191489855,"coverage":0,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-44.46945633168682,"p05_return":-45.62056570732529,"profit_odds":0,"median_max_drawdown":44.46945633168682},{"symbol":"SFIX","N":8,"mean_intrinsic_multiple":0.9535745761978892,"max_intrinsic_multiple":5.165333333333332,"coverage":2,"halfKelly_floor":0,"paths":10000,"tickets":20,"premium_pct":3,"median_return":-6.249441441107351,"p05_return":-31.98054166018457,"profit_odds":0.3921,"median_max_drawdown":20.17009498600003}] 3. Gridlogutility fullKelly0 for all floor distributions; halfKelly0. SFIX has one5.1653xgross scenario but mean.95357x, insufficient documented3xexpectedpayout. Countercase residualtimevalue raises actualreturns, but magnitude unverified. Tail dependence and capital depletion could worsen stress. Current allocation0; account absolute premiumcap51.0594, normal25.5297, conviction42.5495; three51.0594premiums exactly18%, so use strictlyless if absolute caps ever bind.

Premises:1 Sample frozen252daystressholdoutdailyportfolio, threefractionalsleeves,3000normalizedcapital.2 Seed9110200,10000paths,resampleoverlapping21dayblocks,12blocks=252sessions; preserveswithinblockdependence butmissesnovelregimes,longmemoryandfuturegaps.3 On187.22fund21sessionP5/median/P95PnL=-8.5383/1.0334/11.9949USD,lossprob0.4298,zeroempiricalgain>=349.01; annualreturnP5/50/95=-10.6848/7.1039/29.3271%,drawdownP50/95=9.4809/17.6986%. Notforecast andzerocountisnotimpossibility. Primarytrainingnegative keepshalfKelly0; temptingholdout6.14%riskplugin wouldbecapped byaccount3%normalrisk25.5297USDand187.22funddeployment/212.7475positionceiling, butnotused. A totalfundgap loss187.22wouldbe22%account, so fundcapaloneisnotgapriskbudget. Strongestcounterargument fatpositive tailsnotcapturedcanpay; doesnotjustify changingtargettomeet349.01fundinggap. Rate7.1887%CAGR over7.67yearsholdoutvs70.3186%total, not70%monthly. Sources frozen2406; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/inference.py/json.

Prerecorded fixedrule trade samples; numpyseed91102,50000circular2-tradeblock paths,20trades/path. TrainhalfKelly0.09000387533670048 givesUSD76.59239787277875;quarterprobe19.148099468194687. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . HalfKellymedianpathreturn5.759727139651794%/losspathprob6.832000000000001%/95thDD4.028902490808622%. These are conditionalempiricalsimulations,notcalibratedfutureprobabilities;N15,no unseenfat-tail events. One-sharehypothetical30%gaploss16.322999999999997USD=1.9181188968142981%account;notguaranteedmaxloss. Whole-shareallocation54.41 cannot be roundedup fromquarterprobebudget withoutnewpayoffjustification. Currentcombinedentryfalse. Actualallocation0;normal25.5297USDloss/accountposition212.7475caps are ceilings,not recommendations. Funding349.01shortfall excluded.

Prerecorded fixedrule trade samples; numpyseed91102,50000circular2-tradeblock paths,20trades/path. TrainhalfKelly0.04132733473590497 givesUSD35.16914858690777;quarterprobe8.792287146726942. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . HalfKellymedianpathreturn1.1587751663886148%/losspathprob29.326%/95thDD3.043595464073956%. These are conditionalempiricalsimulations,notcalibratedfutureprobabilities;N14,no unseenfat-tail events. One-sharehypothetical30%gaploss29.226USD=3.4343529301166873%account;notguaranteedmaxloss. Whole-shareallocation97.42 cannot be roundedup fromquarterprobebudget withoutnewpayoffjustification. Currentcombinedentryfalse. Actualallocation0;normal25.5297USDloss/accountposition212.7475caps are ceilings,not recommendations. Funding349.01shortfall excluded.

Prerecorded fixedrule trade samples; numpyseed91102,50000circular2-tradeblock paths,20trades/path. TrainhalfKelly0 givesUSD0;quarterprobe0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . HalfKellymedianpathreturn0%/losspathprob0%/95thDD0%. These are conditionalempiricalsimulations,notcalibratedfutureprobabilities;N13,no unseenfat-tail events. One-sharehypothetical30%gaploss23.685USD=2.783228945110988%account;notguaranteedmaxloss. Whole-shareallocation78.95 cannot be roundedup fromquarterprobebudget withoutnewpayoffjustification. TraininghalfKelly0,sozero-riskpathistrivialcashnotproofsafeentry. Actualallocation0;normal25.5297USDloss/accountposition212.7475caps are ceilings,not recommendations. Funding349.01shortfall excluded.

Premises1 sample10000pathsperassetperregime,20dayhorizon/contiguous24hblocks,2024-25vs2026reuseddata; historicalempiricaltailsretained butcrossblockdependencebroken. 2 Currentmidstarts76905.291/2452.0315/99.3295,2ATRrisk5.9387/7.1788/10.0173%;fees25bpcreditasset+10bpslipside implynetstoploss6.5954/7.8269/10.6455%,net3Rtarget92769.56/3049.07/131.9734,gross20.628/24.349/32.864%. 3 2026regime means-1.150/-1.276/-1.301%,targetfrequencies4.14/6.46/3.55%;trainingmeans+.731/+.059/+.071. Conclusion widerangegainspossiblebutunconditionedentryhasnonevidencedpositivecurrentexpectancy. Hourlycheckfillsproxywith+2Rbreakeven/2ATRtrail; noentrysignalconditioning,soprobabilitiesarenotsignalforecasts. Worstsamplequantilesarenotbounds. At212.7475notional,training5thpercentileloss16.779/21.543/26.739USD;SOLexceeds25.5297normal3%accountbudget. Strongestcounterexample breakoutconditioningcouldimproveodds; absenttriggercannotborrowit. NoMC-derivedKellyorder. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots .

1 Descriptive model, not preregistered event forecast:50k paths,130quarterhoursteps over5sessions, seed91102, zero dailylogdrift,sigma60=.02346009/sqrt26. Start39.33,stop37.887045,target43.658865,firstobservedcrossingstop atpathprice,targetlimit,otherwisefinalpathprice;30bp eachside. Netmean-.4890%,target4.352%,stop44.7%,p05-4.791%,p95+9.083%. GBM omits jumps,weekendnews,parameteruncertainty,correlation andrealvenuefills; model cannot override positivebutweak eventhistory. 2 Training two-point halfKelly p5/6,W2.5595%,L2.6799% yields12.292 investedcapitalfraction; not12.292% and notpermitmargin. Assumption sampleloss captures tail is indefensible fromN1. HoldoutN2noloss => lossseverity unknown/Kellyundefined, nottruezero loss. Approved allocation0 pendingprospective evidence/currentdatewindow. Whole-share39.33 is80.04% offund and4.622% ofaccount maximumloss; 25%fractionprobe9.83 wouldlose atmost1.155%ofaccount butrequiresRTH fractionalexits. No convexlongoption selected orpremiumedgeestablished. 3 Stoploss budget must consider shock:45.86%RARE-like drop onone39.33share costs18.04=2.119%account; 100%loss39.33=4.622%. These are severity scenarios,not estimated probabilities. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TBN&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; analyses2399/2400.

Edge test: MLKN Oct16 P17.5 reference .28 Sep9, S20.80 Sep10: requires -17.211538%; eight issuer-dated earnings close moves, median absolute10.745876%, coverage1/8=12.5% (<40%), intraday lows also1/8. HITI frozen N9 medianabs5.494505%, C.31/P.16 atS2.56 require+9.765625/-8.593750%; closecoverage1/9each, putdaily-low4/9 is hindsight path only. Neither documents expected optionpayoff>=3x premium. Premises: map8historicclosemoves toS20.8 thenP17.5intrinsic=max(17.5-Snext,0); divideby.28premium, subtract1. Sevenzerointrinsicoutcomesandone4.839577xpayout =>mean.604947x. This is stressfloor, notexpectedactualOct16optionprice. NumPyseed911,10000iidbootstrap20ticketpaths,3%equitypremiumcompounded; medianreturn-28.12351%,5thpercentile-45.62057%,profitodds9.38%. Fractions0–6% in.01ppsteps optimizingmeanloggrowth, halfKelly0. Smallselectedsamplemissesunseentails/regimedependence; transactioncostsandresidualtimevalueexcluded. Counterexample: remaining24+daystimevaluecan materiallychangeactualreturns, so simulationdoesnotproveoptionfairvalue. Currentgate1/8failsindependently, allocation0; no calibratedpositiveKellyestimateavailable. Contract28dollars=3.2903%account exceedsnormal3%25.5297; onlyhighconviction5%42.5495couldadmitone, and convictionnotestablished. A quarterofacappedwholecontractisnotpurchasable. 3Rnettargetwouldbe4*.28=1.12optionprice; intrinsicrequiresstock<=16.38(-21.25%), only1/8historicalcloses, noforecasttargetplaced. HITIbootstrapcoverage100000resamples1.195%reach40% isfrequencyuncertainty, notoptiontradeodds. Sources option_contracts; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuerMLKNdates23055/23066–73.

Premises:1 Seed911 numpy10000 circular3-day-block paths of20days per asset from253supplied dailyreturns, observations23079–81. 2 Using latest2ATR stop/6ATR target, daily-close firststop/firsttarget odds BTC47.50/7.27%,ETH51.91/10.29%,SOL42.68/4.11%; remainder neither. 3 These unconditional close-only scenarios miss intraday thresholds, crisis gaps, costs and breakout conditioning. Conclusion no inferred live win probability or Kelly from this simulation. Terminal5th-percentile held-without-stop accountloss at25%allocation -4.29/-5.73/-6.02%, so venuecap alone cannot substitute for risk control. Validity is conditional resampling arithmetic; soundness fails as a calibrated trading forecast if regime changes or aggregation errors matter. Strongest counterexample trend-conditioned returns can be much better, tested separately. Stop distances5.967/7.224/10.091%, nominal targets17.902/21.671/30.273%; no actualstop/target set because noholding/noentry. Fees make nominal3R less than3Rnet; livepolicy requires new validation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises2349costedholdoutN15 cashreturns; independent manualentryfee-inclusivecompounding matchesvectorbtportfolio. numpyseed911,50000iidbootstrap paths of20trades from same15returns. TraininghalfKelly9.00039%equity (p.5,W10.8027%,L6.91355%), quarterprobe2.25010%; holdouthalfKelly13.0303% is diagnostic, not selectedallocation. 9% allocation simulationmedian+5.66527%,lossprob9.146%,95thDD4.58894%;quarterprobe median+1.40506%,95thDD1.16244%. One-share54.41=6.39373%equity simulation95thDD3.27679%. These conditional paths omitserialdependence,future structuralbreaks andfat-tail events absentfromN15; not calibrated20-trade forecast. Fixedhypothetical15%gap costs8.1615USD per share,0.9591%equity, not maxpossibleloss. Quarterprobebudget19.15 cannot buywhole share54.41. Current signalfalse andexecutionunvalidated => actualsize0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; methodsinlocalresearch/lpg_audit.py, measurementsrecorded. No fundingtarget input.

Premises:1 Holdout200dayadapter stressed portfolio dailyreturns, same9equalcapital sleeves, form empirical input, not independentvalidation.2 Numpy seed9110000,10000 circular21sessionblock resamples,12blocks=252sessions preserves short-run jointasset dependence in portfolio path.3 Full187.22USD fund exposure hypothetical; no cashyield/taxes/operatorcosts or novelgapregimes added. Conditional21session return5th/median/95th=-1.33939/.008828/2.01433%, dollars-2.50760/.01653/3.77122; lossfrequency45.48%. 252session return5th/median/95th=-3.60460/1.48298/7.46494%; maximumdrawdownmedian2.69158%,95th5.52478%. Noneof10000 paths gains349.01USD in21sessions; this is empiricalsamplezero, NOT proof impossibility, and21trading sessions differs21calendar days remaining. Funding gap requires186.41705% return onQuantcash alone; changing target cannot create it. Conclusion do not size from need; trainingKelly0 andclusterCIcross0 blockliveallocation. Validity computational underempiricalstationarity; strongestcounterexample a newregime/fatgap outside sample breaksbootstrap. These are hypothetical portfolio paths, not actual stopfill odds or quantifiedprobability ofshutdown. Source research/inference.py/inference.json and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

1 Frozen note2087 beforecomputation: 60completedSIPdailylogreturns, twofuture sessions52quarterhourincrements,50000paths seed2026091100, vol2.771389%daily. Start3.84,stop1oldADR lower,target3oldADR higher; stopfillsatobservedcrossingprice,targetatlimit,timeat52ndstep,30bp/sidefees+slippageassumption. 2 Zerologdrift target2.796%/stop40.284%/time56.92%,netmean-.529246%;samplelogdrift-.0172713%/day target2.624%/stop41.128%,netmean-.587239%. Empiricaltwo-dayIIDterminalbootstrap p05/median/p95=3.62895/3.84074/4.06270; .72%terminalabovetarget notfirstpassage. 3 Gross3R onlynet2.31196R aftercosts. Conclusion approved0; do not compute positivecapitalKelly fromnegativeexpectedmodel. Countercase catalystjump/fattails/regimechange could invalidateGBM; modelomitsgap/weekendnews/dependence/parameteruncertainty andisNOTeventodds,backtest,15minexecutionvalidation orpaperretune. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; note2087 .

NEWNumPyscenario50,000paths10events seed2026091021;two-pointIID law p4/6,W2.643209564%,L3.262590862% from1928 stressedaverages, notresamplingoriginalsixreturns. Starting49.14,rawhalfKelly.1276117927 => mean49.564657/p05 48.575049/median49.686265/p95 50.441163,loss21.336%. 1 Modelcollapsesdistributionandignoresparameteruncertainty/binarygaps/dependence. 2 Failedtraininganddifferent3Rexits prohibitusingthisprobabilityforsizing. Conclusionapproved0;rawnotional6.270843 wouldnotbesufficientauthorization. Countercasefattailscouldpaymuchmore: modelhasremovedthem,so0/50000recovery349.01 isonlyboundedscenarioresult, notmarketodds. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst&analysisKind=backtest&symbol=EPM .

HITI Oct16 K2.5 call/put close .31/.18 (Sep9); underlying2.555 throughSep10 19:20UTC. N9 issuer-dated AMC earnings: directional break-even +9.98043%/-9.19765%, coverage1/9=11.111% each (<40%); medianabs close5.494505%, medianabs gap2.34375%. Thresholds exceed close median by4.485925/3.703146pp, so no hold-through exception. Recent put .16 still1/9 at8.414873%. Intrinsic-only mean payoff .166696/.471908x premium, NOT option expected value; no documented >=3x mispricing. Premises: scale each of9 historical next-session stock close returns to S2.555, compute call max(Snext-2.5,0) or put max(2.5-Snext,0), divide by referencepremium and subtract1. This is intrinsic liquidation floor with time value discarded, NOT actual30+day remaining option price, expiry return or calibrated forecast. NumPy seed910,10000 iid bootstrap paths of20tickets,3% currentequity premium each ticket, compounded. Search fractions0–6% in.01pp steps maximizing meanloggrowth, thenhalf:0 for both. Intrinsic sample mean returns-83.3304%call/-52.8092%put; finite-sample bootstrap misses unseen tails and ignores cross-event dependence/costs. Median series returns-40.0481%/-27.7979%,5th percentile-44.3359%/-35.8266%; profit odds0%/.01%. Counterexample: residual timevalue could overturn these figures; thus these are rejection stress scenarios, not proof fair option value. Empirical mandatedcoverage11.1% and missing optionvalue evidence independently reject, so size0. One actualcall$31=3.643% equity, put$18=2.115%; fullpremium absoluteceiling$51.0594, normal3%$25.5297, highconviction5%$42.5495. Primary event https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/; data and nine primary history dates in statistical analysis2301.

Review2281/original1942,notnewMonteCarlo:50000NumPypaths/10events resampling6stressedreturns,49.14initial,oldquarterKelly.063805896. Mean49.352116,p05/median/p95 48.845875/49.352178/49.856086,loss24.838%. Premise1 conditionalIIDsixreturnsdonotmodelbinarygaps/dependence/regime. Premise2 newhalfKellyand>=3Rrulechangeallocationsandpayofflaw; cannottransferodds. Conclusionapproved0. Countercasetailupsidepossible,unmeasuredratherthanzero; no simulatedmonthendprofitpromise. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst .