Stats

Train31 costed closed returns: winp13/31=.41935484,avgwin18.364665%,avgloss9.624578%,b1.90810092 =>halfKelly risk .05752479. Rough historical sizing, not calibrated future odds.2ADR/47.9=5.19238%risk. Fund170.20,venue212.7475 and assumed30%gap at3%account850.99 cap full85.099; quarter21.27475=.444149share,stoploss1.104666USD pre-cost,gap30loss6.382425USD,totalstockloss21.27475=2.5%account. 20k circular3tradeblock paths of20trades,seed91306,2.5%account allocated eachtrade: baseP05/median/P95[-1.445696,1.027504,3.653712]%,loss25.385%,DD95 2.292229%; add independent assumed5%chance/trade of-30%return ->[-2.516428,.219166,3.056590]%,loss44.84%,DD95 3.222898%.10%allocation stress median.693025%,DD95 12.535072%;20%allocation .952922%,DD95 23.511632%. These horizonless20trade paths are not18day/month forecasts; assumption is not measured war frequency, and30%isnot hard gap bound. Full book improves median little but greatly increases drawdown. No round-up toone47.9share; actualsize0 while closed and current netRR<3. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.

Premises: quietweekend prices do not bound20dayrisk; crosscoin paths must preserve commonshocks; unconditional resampling does not validate anentry. Seed91306,10000paths*480hours; sample complete24hourUTCdayblocks jointly acrossBTC/ETH/SOL by nextweekday startingSunday,20days. Train2024–25 versus known2026pool separately;holdout254completejointdays. Includes10bpbuyslip by initialspot/1.001,25bpcreditedassetfees per side+10bpsellslip. CurrentSep12 ATR20 frozen; hourly exitchecks and every2hourquarter/BE proxy,NOTactualmanager15m engine. Fullnet3R targets require20.5241/24.8197/34.5551% rises. Holdout fulltargetprobabilities5.73/9.77/3.07%,stop54.72/57.10/45.70%; means−.9304/−.6575/−1.2271%. Quarterat+2grossR,stopentry,residualtarget solved forcombinednet3R requires23.3401/28.1130/38.9300% gains; finaltargetprob3.56/6.92/1.76%,mean−.9019/−.6034/−1.2217%. Approximatebinarymean halfKelly0allthreeholdout; trainingpositiveBTC orSOL plug-ins are not adopted. Three$29.785probes=$89.355: managedproxy meanPnL−$.8123,P1−$9.2638,worstsample−$10.8530(1.275%account). No >3%account loss in10000paths is NOTa hardbound; empiricalblocks omitnewjumps,structuralchanges,liquidityfailure and intrahour excursions. IndividualmanagedP99loss$2.6158/$3.2233/$4.2212. Counterargument: trendconditionedfreshentries can outperform unconditionalblocks; these odds neitherprove norvetoa validconditionaledge. Actualsize0 becausefreshentryabsent andsamepolicymanagerholdoutweak. All16scenario rows recorded. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, fresh926 SIP adjustment=all dailybars, release-close to next-session-close medianabsolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95; Oct16C2.5 catalog.50Sep10 plus.05/share assumedroundtripcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; C5.05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10; P2.5.12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10. C2.5mappedmeanintrinsic1.109296xpremium excludesresidualtime,notactualoptionEV; no documented3xexpectedpayoff. Sep2issuer quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+23days; defaultSep22RTHexit. Historical primaryURLs anddatequotes in R91306eventobservations, re-openedthisrun. Sources option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. NumPyseed913061,20kpaths/20opportunities,startingfund102.12; hypotheticalconstant25USDall-inexposure scales sixT3trainingnetreturns; stopfundingbelow25. Thispermitsfractionalscaling andisnot a quoted20premium+5costwholecontract. .05totalcostbaseline median123.234983,losingseries27.24%,medianDD19.584802%;.10costmedian24.828333,losing99.265%,DD75.832820%,51.66%cashbelowticket. 2. Separate91306iid/circularblock3bootstraprowsrecorded; N1holdoutbootstrapdegenerate272.05terminal/0losscannotforecastcertainty. Floatingnearzeroreturns distortlossstreak;discardthatmetric. 3. Addhypotheticalfullall-inlossprobabilityq tobaseline: qbreak-even4.333333%,58.770047%chance>=1in20iid opportunities. q5/10%median98.931847/72.520697,losing51.56/71.655%;assumptionsnotestimatedodds. Sixmarkreturns yield196.918696USDhalfKelly,farabovefund102.12andnormal25.5297risk, demonstrating missingtail/selection instability;not liveKelly. Currenteventintrinsicstudy3118halfKelly3.21664USDusesdifferentholdthroughpayoffandcannotbecombined. 4. Counterexample:positiveunobservedtailcouldimproveexpectancy; baselineincludesallobservedwinners. Neitherfavorablebootstrapnoroperator349.01shortfall licensesrisk.

Premises:1 current67.84 reference,65.93stop,75.11target;2 empirical log-return blocks preserve some serial dependence;3 historical innovation regime is an assumption, not estimated live probability. Numpyseed2026091306,10000paths/cell,60sessions,L5/20/60 circular blocks; regimesSep13 2021-Dec31 2024 N831 andJan1 2025-Sep11 2026 N424; total60000paths. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EEM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all. Full results {"pre2025_L5":{"innovation_n":831,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":71.57,"target_first_pct":13.930000000000001,"neither_pct":14.499999999999998,"mean_pnl_usd":-0.3334778364307266,"p05_pnl_usd":-3.1505754030937236,"p50_pnl_usd":-2.176280199004985,"p95_pnl_usd":7.734389077169582,"loss_over_nominal_pct":71.6,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":-0.45536283737850775},"pre2025_L20":{"innovation_n":831,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":72.41,"target_first_pct":13.100000000000001,"neither_pct":14.49,"mean_pnl_usd":-0.4362787387692226,"p05_pnl_usd":-3.1674449213792863,"p50_pnl_usd":-2.172270643083884,"p95_pnl_usd":7.737399344683572,"loss_over_nominal_pct":72.42,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":-0.5580711633590841},"pre2025_L60":{"innovation_n":831,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":73.38,"target_first_pct":9.43,"neither_pct":17.19,"mean_pnl_usd":-0.6043140408723501,"p05_pnl_usd":-3.180292599207406,"p50_pnl_usd":-2.1971267595603163,"p95_pnl_usd":7.544410737240073,"loss_over_nominal_pct":73.38,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":-0.7259551428967795},"2025plus_L5":{"innovation_n":424,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":48.78,"target_first_pct":41.61,"neither_pct":9.610000000000001,"mean_pnl_usd":2.1731685450419214,"p05_pnl_usd":-4.369000587767832,"p50_pnl_usd":0.4418869883009054,"p95_pnl_usd":8.568010473012096,"loss_over_nominal_pct":48.79,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":2.0490262079491273},"2025plus_L20":{"innovation_n":424,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":47.010000000000005,"target_first_pct":39.629999999999995,"neither_pct":13.36,"mean_pnl_usd":2.258367547004803,"p05_pnl_usd":-4.153691180703697,"p50_pnl_usd":2.2974025849742272,"p95_pnl_usd":8.360387114742439,"loss_over_nominal_pct":47.03,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":2.1341484847751615},"2025plus_L60":{"innovation_n":424,"paths":10000,"stop_first_pct":48.1,"target_first_pct":35.76,"neither_pct":16.14,"mean_pnl_usd":2.075015918494981,"p05_pnl_usd":-4.344827129313141,"p50_pnl_usd":2.2100709749857312,"p95_pnl_usd":8.094501131230189,"loss_over_nominal_pct":48.1,"stress15bp_mean_pnl_usd":1.9509619718003188}}. Each path exits at first daily close beyond fixed barriers or60thclose, pays assumed6bp/side total friction, stress15bp/side. Close overshoots kept; target overshoots may overstate actual limit execution. NO intraday high/low, no profit ratchet, no monthly selection, no raw dividend gaps: deliberately a fixed-barrier sensitivity model, NOT actual mandate policy backtest or live exit odds. Historical older regime has13.10%target-first/L20 versus39.63%recent; corresponding means-$0.4363/+$2.2584 per share andP5 -$3.1674/-$4.1537. Both P5losses exceed nominal1.91. Counterargument future regime differs from both and no resampling generates unprecedented shock; sparse observations are not60000independent market episodes. Keep one-share fixed size; noKelly from scenario frequencies.

NumPyseed91304 resamples10000 contiguous20-day joint BTC/ETH/SOL daily close-return paths from235 overlapping2026 windows, equal initial weights buy-and-hold, preserving within-block correlations. TerminalP1-32.9802%,P5-28.9933%,P95+28.2082%; first-percentile worst path value-40.2133%=>-$47.9102 on119.14fullfund or-$11.9775 on29.785quarterfund. Daily-return correlations BTCETH.911160, BTCSOL.878579, ETHSOL.879436. Premises: risk compounds across the intended horizon; three majors are strongly correlated. Counterexample: unobserved gap or exchange failure can be worse. These are historical-resampling scenarios, not forecast odds, no entry conditioning/fees/stops/rebalancing; draws from235windows are not10000independent historical events. A25%jointcrash costs29.785USDfullfund=3.5%account versus7.44625USDquarter=.875%account. Actualexposure0. Need current executable entry and policy-specific stops before using size; do not extrapolate earlier quiet2hourweekend distribution over20days. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Managedpapertraining29: winp12/29=.413793,avgwin14.8067%,avgloss9.31325%,b1.58985=>halfKellyrisk.02253746. This is roughsizingreference, notapprovedprobability becausepolicycadencemismatch. Stop2ADR/47.9=5.19238% permitslargernotionalbutassumed30%gap cappedto3%account850.99=>full85.099USD,quarter21.27475USD=.444149share. Whole47.90wouldroundriskup; onlyfractionalRTHcanexpressquarter. 20,000 seeded20tradepaths at2.5%accountallocation usingtrainingreturns:baseP05/P50/P95=-2.05483/+.25728/+3.02878%,loss43.335%,DD95 2.57789%. Assumedindependent5%chancepertradeof-30%gap yields-3.05614/-.49512/+2.40193%,loss61.555%,DD95 3.51279%. Gapassumptionisnotwarfrequency, norhardlimit; totalstocklosscanexceedstop. Futurepathsnotcalibratedto1–3monthcalendar. Reference45.41285stop/55.36145target gross3R, valuebridgebook~56.998 butcostsreducenetRRandmustberecomputedatexecutableentry. Currentzero; cashdecisiondoesnotrequirecertaintybutactualpolicyandleft-tailfitremainunresolved. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Fund170.20cash/account850.99; do notallocateusingfundingshortfall.

Edge test:10 consecutive issuer-scheduled AMC earnings Mar2024-Jun2026 reverified against primary URLs in observations27176–85 and926 fresh SIP adjustmentall daily bars. Release-close to next-session-close median absolute16.578014%; Sep11S2.95 Oct16C2.5 close.50Sep10 plusassumed.05/share totalcost requires+3.389831%,4/10; P2.5 .12Sep11 requires-21.016949%,2/10; C5 .05Sep10 requires+72.881356%,0/10. No documented actual option expected payoff>=3xpremium. IssuerSep2 quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Oct16expiry23dayslater; defaultSep22RTHexit; no current position. Source option_contracts SFIX; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars . 1. Research stress only:20k IID paths20opportunities starting102.12cash, buy hypothetical50premium+5cost call only ifcash>=55, settle mapped eventintrinsic; no reuse of residualvalue or actual historicaloptionfills. Seed91304: cashP5/median/P95=6.018747/47.12/482.828600;80.73%paths belowinitial,median peakdrawdown60.59954%,average7.2077tickets. Positions would violatecurrent5%risk; simulation demonstrates granularity, doesnot authorize it or forecast actualruin. 2. Atp.50 hypothetical3Rgross target2.00 needs52.542373%intrinsicstockrise,0/10,max44.347826%. ResidualBlackScholes sensitivity22daysafterSep24,assumed4%rate/no dividends/IV40,80,120,200%: meanvalues.577467,.623285,.687721,.849903,all below1.50needed3xpremium;0/10targets2.00 across grid,max1.87419at200%IV. No IV fitted from staleclose. 3. Counterexample: futureearnings jump can exceedsample and residualIVcanexceedgrid. No primarycash evidence supplies those probabilities. Treat quantitative tail requirements as monitoring questions; no defended live target or stop adopted.

Premises:1 joint09:45return vectors from41crisis and29recent sessions preserve crossasset dependence;2 independently resample20000 paths of60nights, seed20260913;3 old equal lots and hypothetical initialstop preceding shock plus50bp, maximum-night loss not compounded portfolio PnL. Crisis median/P95/max all40.66658; recent all9.58880. Small conditioned samples repeatedly include their worst day, so the percentile has no forward tail-probability interpretation. Regime frequency, clustering, ratchet, executable fills and novel losses omitted. Conclusion retain explicit doubled-crisis envelope for sizing, do not use this bootstrap to estimate win odds, expected return or halfKelly. This is scenario simulation, not a strategy backtest. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.

Premises:1 target sampling uncertainty differs from future path uncertainty;2 preserving local dependence is more informative than IID rolling-window resampling;3 stationarity and circular endpoints remain assumptions. Numpy seed2026091304,3000resamples EACH for block20/60/120,1255sampled signed60-session gains per draw,source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars adjustmentall. Bootstrap P5/P50/P95 ofP90(%):L20 8.731818/10.621883/14.212705;L60 8.007592/10.610411/14.325737;L120 7.439117/10.610411/14.425957. L60 range maps entry67.84 to73.272350–77.558580 approximately; mandated75.11 remains unchanged. These are illustrative sampling bands under chosen dependence assumptions, NOT90%coverage guarantee, price forecasts, stop odds, or Kelly evidence. Counterexample structural change in country/sector composition makes resampled old blocks unrepresentative; wraparound connects unrelated endpoints. Larger blocks broaden left uncertainty; additional slicing does not resolve future regime. No trades simulated, no claimed strategy returns/drawdowns/winrate/OOS. Specific mandate prohibits retesting accepted concept; fixed equal-slot sizing prevails.

NumPyseed91302,10000resampledcontiguous2hourjointweekendreturnblocks,hypothetical119.14equalweights. Majorsall2026 N1754blocks P1-2.332858%=-2.779367USD. SevenN1418 P1-1.856590%=-2.211941USD;comparingdifferentwindowswouldfalselysuggestimprovement. SAME1418blockwindow majorsP1-1.636146%=-1.949304USD;sevenP5-.849714/P95+.992534 versusmajors-.791907/+.765652. DrawsamplesindependentRNGdrawsfromsamewindow,notpairedMonteCarlodrawindices;datewindowmatched. SevenisnotautomaticallysaferdespitelowerHYPEBTCcorrelation. 0samplelossesbeyond25.5297USD(3%account)isnotbound. Explicit25%jointcrashcosts29.785USD=3.50%accountatfullfund;quarterfundloses7.44625USD=.875%account. Noentryconditioning,fees,stops,slippageorlongercrisis;firsthourcanstartFriday23UTC. Premisescorrelated24/7riskneedsjointbudget;counterexampleunseenexchangegapdominatesquietweekendhistory. Noorder;actualexposure0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Edge test: nine consecutive fiscal earnings Q3FY24–Q3FY26 (May2024–May2026), SIP adjustment=all prior-close to morning-release-day close, median absolute5.245902%, range -11.810013% to+23.8%. AtSep11S7.39 Oct16P5 .05Sep11 plusassumed.05/sharecost needs33.694181%fall,0/9; P7.5 .69 needs8.525034%,1/9 and69USD>51.0594absolute; C5 2.45Sep8 needs+1.488498%,5/9 but245USD>102.12fund and42.5495convictionrisk. No documentedactualoptionexpectedpayoff>=3xpremium. Aug26issuer quote 'before the U.S. market open on September 16, 2026' https://investors.luxexperience.com/news/news-details/2026/LuxExperience-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Earnings-Release-and-Conference-Call-Participating-in-Upcoming-Investor-Conference/default.aspx . ExpiryOct16+30days; defaultSep15RTHexit, noholdexception foraffordableput becausehurdle exceedsmedian28.448279pp. History originalURLs and bars26862–89; ISOdatesinobservationnotes normalized, notverbatimissuerdateformat. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts LUXE. 1. NumPyseed91302,20000paths,20opportunities,startingfund102.12,one5USDpremium+5assumedroundtripcostticket; stopfundingbelow10. Empiricalnine-moveP5intrinsicstresshaszeropayoutineveryevent,terminal2.12after10tickets,97.9240%drawdown,halfKelly0. DegeneratebootstrapdoesNOTestimateactualoptiontailprobability,confidenceorresidualtimevalue. 2. Attackzero-tailassumption: insertpurelyhypothetical50%stockcollapse(pays1.305/share) withprobabilities5/10/15%,zerointrinsicotherwise. Grosspayoff1.305/2.610/3.915xpremium; meanterminal54.4802/151.9174/274.0515;lossprob78.335/48.445/26.530%; theseareassumption-sensitivitiesNOTforecasts. 3. Need>=11.4943%catastropheprobfor3xgrosspremium (22.9885%for3xallin); unobservedandnotdocumented. Hypotheticaloptiontarget.20,4xpremium/3Rgross,requires35.0474%underlyingfallintrinsically;0/9,butactualtargetoddsunknown. Noadoptedstop/targetorliveKellysize. Fullpremiumrisk.58755%equity doesnotmakeanegative/unknownedgequalified.

Trainingonly p10/33,win22.5028%,loss8.28635%,b2.71564 =>halfKellyrisk.02319017. Mappingto2ADRstop5.19238% permitsnotionalabovefundcap, but assumed30%gap at3%equityrisk limitsfull85.099USD; quarter21.27475USD below47.90whole share. No rounding. Reference stop45.41285,target55.36145 gross3R; notvalueproof. Conditional20,000IID20trade paths seeded91302 at2.5%accountweight: baseP05/P50/P95=-2.1080/+.4490/+3.3826%,loss39.365%,DD95=2.6586%. Assumed5%trades30%gapstress gives-3.0788/-.3176/+2.7449%,loss57.055%,DD95=3.5617%. Probabilities aremodeloutputs, notobservedwarfrequency. FractionalRTH expression could fitamountbutcannottradeclosedandneedsrawexit/valueaudit. Actualsize0; noautomaticMondaybuy. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Counterargumentpositivebase doesnotestablishcostedvenueexitpolicy; prioritizeaudit ratherthanraisingsize.

Training-onlyp=.259259,avgwin9.574%,avgloss6.2915%,payoff1.5217 => clippedhalfKelly0. Thus authorizedsize0, quarterofzero0. As a counterfactual only,20,000IID20trade paths seed91302 at21.27475USD/850.99 account fraction2.5%: baseP05/P50/P95=-2.3919/-1.1329/+.3902%,lossodds89.325%,DD95=2.5111%. Replace5%draws with min(return,-30%) as assumedstress, not empiricalfrequency: -3.5120/-1.7732/-.0545%,loss95.445%,DD95=3.6482%. No case to deploy even smallprobe under this model. Twentytrades is not19days; left-tailcorrelation and changingregimes omitted. Reference stop27.50806,target35.23582 at29.44 are unvalidated fairvalue barriers,3Rgross only. 30%gap atcounterfactualsize costs6.382425USD; venuecap212.7475/fund170.20 cannot overridezeroedge. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and3063.

Premises:1 fiveyear1255 joint dailygap vectors preserve crossasset dependence;2 iid20000paths60nights seed20260913;3 hypothetical initialstop before adverse overnightgap, plus50bp. {"paths":20000,"nights":60,"sample":1255,"p50":13.102510465679082,"p95":16.966882644386843,"max":20.658827830036604}. Reproduces3002; maximum-night loss distribution, not compounded portfolio PnL or target odds. Omits2020, regime clustering, ratchet and novel gaps; stricter crisis stress controls sizing. No win-rate/Kelly estimate inferred. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.

Training only p=1/3, average win13.3288%, loss5.3370% => half Kelly risk fraction.0331949. Approximate mapping to reference2ADRstop4.190% gives capacity above venue/fund caps; a stated30%gap/3%equity risk budget binds fullnotional85.099 and quarter21.27475. Quarter stoprisk$.89144,30%gap$6.38243=.75%account, below one50.07share; no rounding. Net-costed training returns sampled on20,000IID paths of20trades,seed91300,fixed accountfraction. Quarterbase P05/P50/P95=-1.1804/+.4054/+2.1986%,95thDD1.6068%,lossodds34.565%. Replace5%ofdraws by min(return,-30%): quarter=-2.3899/-.3174/+1.7415%,DD2.7685%,loss59.815%; fullstressmedian-1.4423%,DD10.7717%. These probabilities are conditional model outputs, not estimated war-gap frequency; IID paths miss serial dependence. Twentytrades is not nineteen calendar days. A live stop cannot cap an overnightgap. Current signalfalse means actualsize0 despite positive baseline Kelly. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; new costed tests3030–31. No order.

NumPy seed91300,10000paths,1752contiguous2hourjointweekendblocks from2026hourlylogreturns throughSep12. Hypothetical119.14equalBTCETHSOLbasket; meanreturn-.014703%,P1-2.332657%=-2.779128USD,P5-.919514%,P95+.776395%. Zero simulatedlosses beyond25.5297USD(3%account) is not a bound; finitehistoricalsample omitsnewregimes. Explicit25%jointcrash costs29.785USD=3.50004%account;quarterfund29.785loses7.44625USDonsameshock. Preserveswithin2hourserialandcrossassetdependence, but firsthour mayFriday23UTC forSaturday00UTC endingblock. No fees,stops,targets,entryconditioning orpath-longerregimes;notbacktestorKellyedge. Premises: correlatedbookneedsjointbudget, observedquietweekendnotpromise; strongestcounterexample exchange/securitygaps outsidehistoricalblocks. Conclusion no orderbasedonsimulation;actualsize0, entrytestseparate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; observation26595.

Edge test: corrected10 consecutive issuer-dated AMC earnings Mar2024–Jun2026, daily SIP release-close to next-session close, median absolute16.578014%. Sep11S2.95, Oct16P2.5 .12Sep11/C2.5 .50Sep10 plus assumed .05/share costs require -21.016949%/+3.389831%, covered2/10(20%)/4/10(40%). Callpassescoveragebut50USDpremium exceeds42.5495 convictionrisk; even45USDintrinsicexceedscap. Putfails40%; no documentedexpectedactualoptionpayoff>=3xpremium. IssuerSep2 quote 'after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026' https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Oct16expiry23dayslater; defaultSep22RTHexit. Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars /data/option-bars; historicalsources recorded26537–46. OriginalN8preserved. 1. NumPyseed913,20kIIDpaths,20opportunities,startingfund102.12; one12premium+5assumedcostwholecontract, stopfundingbelow17cash. Maptenstockeventmovestointrinsic,zeroresidualvalue. Meanintrinsic.767735xpremium,netallinmean-.458069R; 5/50/95cash.12/3.937398/102.644064,medianDD96.2011%,loss94.795%,mean10.86275tickets. Thisisdeliberateintrinsicstress, NOTestimatedactualoptionEV/ruinorpre-eventexitforecast. ConcaveloghalfKelly0inscenario;actualKellyunknown. 2. Hypotheticalputtarget.48(4xpremium,3Rgrossfullpremiumprofit)requires31.5254%stockfallintrinsically,1/10events; noactualtargethitodds. Hypotheticalcall2.00requires52.5424%rise,abovehistoricalmax44.3478%; residualtimecouldimproveitbutnotdocumented. Neitherhypotheticaltargetisdefendedasorder. Three17allintickets49.94%funddespite6.0%account illustratesgranularity. Noorder.

Premises:1 empirical IID bootstrap is an illustrative scenario model, not calibrated live odds;2 actual strategy ratchets and15minute enforcement are omitted;3 size stays fixed. Numpy seed20260913,10000paths x60sessions,1255latest adjusted daily returns from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Start67.84,close-only barriers65.93/75.11: stop-first64.25%,target-first24.11%,neither11.64%; terminalhold P5-13.176391%,P95+19.520650%. Close-only counterexample intradaystop/recovery missed; IID misses clustered volatility, raw distributions/gaps, fills,costs and ranking. These percentages cannot supply Kelly or override accepted rule. Binary payoff reference +7.27/-1.91 gives20.8061%breakeven before costs/timeouts; empirical fund odds unavailable because0closed. Strongest bear implication long-run premium does not promise this60sessionpath profits; preserve1share and no target inflation.

Premises:1 fixed prospective sizes and initial2ATR distances;2 joint all-adjusted open/previousclose vectors since2021-09-13 preserve same-night asset dependence;3 iid sample20000paths of60nights seed20260913;4 each night hypothetical stop reached before adverse gap, loss=N*[r+(1-r)*max(-gap,0)+.005]. Distribution of maximum joint nightly loss: {"paths":20000,"nights":60,"historical_nights":1255,"joint_max_loss_p50":13.102510465679082,"joint_max_loss_p95":16.966882644386843,"joint_max_loss_max":20.658827830036604,"single_lot_max":7.657745018977896,"seed":20260913}. Descriptive stress, not compounded strategy PnL, independent validation, live win odds or Kelly. Excludes2020; does not model dynamic ratchet, clustered regimes or novel tails; crisis-inclusive doubledgap statistical analysis is the stricter sizing scenario. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Prior frozen-barrier simulation2905 retained separately; no mandate re-test.

Training managed raw only: p=.387097, average win13.9887%, loss6.47636%, b=2.15996; halfKelly risk=.0516704. Mapping historical loss to prospective stop is an approximation, not exact growth-optimal sizing. Full notional=min170.20fund,212.7475position,halfKelly account/5.484% stop,3% account/stop,3% account/30% gap)=85.099; quarter21.27475, below49.21 share. Reference stop risk1.166895USD; a30% gap costs6.382425USD=.75% account. 20,000 IID paths of20 trades,seed91208, fixed accountfraction rebalanced. Full base returnP05/P50/P95=-5.164/+2.552/+11.999%,95thDD7.141%; quarter=-1.301/+.656/+2.907%,DD1.827%. Replacing5% of sampled trades by min(return,-30%) gives fullmedian-.556%,DD11.268%; quartermedian-.109%,DD2.916%,lossodds52.755%. The5% frequency/30% gap are subjective stress assumptions, not estimated probabilities. Twenty trades is not19 days untilmonthend; do not turn these into funding promises. No order. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and own raw backtests2988–2989.

Edge test: nine issuer-dated AMC earnings Feb2024–Jun2026, SIP daily release-close to next-session close; median absolute5.543964%, mean-0.908716%. Sep11 S39.02, Oct16 C45 .30/P35 .40 catalog closes plus assumed.05/share roundtrip reserve require+16.222450%/-11.455664%, covered0/9 and1/9 (11.11%), below40%. Without reserve put2/9. No documented expected actual-option payout>=3xpremium. Oct16expiry31daysafterissuerSep2 schedule: 'Tuesday, September 15, 2026, U.S. Time, after the market closes.' https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf ; defaultSep14RTHexit. Hurdles exceedmedian10.678486/5.911700pp, noholdexception. Sources option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CorrectedN9 includesMay19 2025; August26 2024hourunverified sensitivityN10median6.067764%,0/10C1/10P. OldN8/S38.7/.32C/.48Pforecast retained separately. 1. NumPyseed91208,100000paths,20sequentialtickets,3%currentequityall-incost eachticket, iidresampling9historicalearningsmoves mappedtocurrentstrikeintrinsic. Includesfixed.05costbutexcludesremaining31daytimevalue,IVandbidask; continuoussizingnotfeasiblewholecontractexecution. Scenarioonly, notforecastactualoptionreturns. 2. C45meanintrinsic0xpremiumandall9intrinsiczero;P35mean.361051xpremium,max2.191156x. OptimizedexpectedloggridhalfKelly0both; authorizedqty0. Call20ticketterminalmedian-45.620566%,putmedian-35.189597%,putp5-42.344860%,profit.006%,mediandrawdown35.221370%. IIDassumptionunderstatesclusteredmissrisk; nocalibratedactualstop/targetodds. 3. Account850.99,fund102.12;normal3%premium25.5297,highconviction5%42.5495,absolute6%51.0594,max3open. C30=3.525306%account/P40=4.700408%,above normal andnohighconvictioncase. Threecallticketswith5dollarcosteach105>fund;threeputs135>fund. Atmost2suchcashfundedpositions,butactual0. Profitshortfall349.01nevermodelinput.

Premise1 start119.14USD crypto allocation/850.99 account, equal-third BTCETHSOL hypothetical basket, no actual position. NumPyseed91208,10000paths16hours to next research run, contiguous6hour joint blocks sampled from6091 complete blocks Jan1–Sep12; preserves intrablock serial/crossasset dependence, ignores longer regimes. Mean basketreturn-.037462%,P1-6.000627%=-7.149147USD,P5-3.637240%,P95+3.634198%. Worst intermediate simulated basket mark-11.815274%. No simulated terminal loss above25.5297USD(3%equity), but zero/10000 is not impossibility. Premise2 full fund25%crash costs29.785USD=3.50004%account; quarterfund29.785 would lose7.44625USD on same shock and29.785 if total impairment. Neither stopchecks nor bootstrap bound tail losses. Simulation excludes fees, stops, targets and entry conditioning; not a backtest, target odds, or Kelly evidence. Conclusion use joint exposure budget and fresh measured stops when a qualified entry occurs; actualsize0 because event absent, not because this simulation predicts loss. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises: daily empirical resampling illustrates endpoint/path difference only; IID assumption is deliberately simplified, not momentum-policy validation. Numpy seed2026091208:10000 paths,60 sessions, sampled with replacement from latest1255 adjusted daily returns; start67.84,frozen65.93/75.11 barriers checked at daily closes. Stop first63.83%,target first24.21%,neither11.96%;terminal P5-13.492814%,P95+19.242400%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars adjustmentall. Omitted serial dependence, live ranking, profitable ratchet, intraday15minute enforcement, raw gaps/dividend cash, fees/slippage; terminal quantiles assume holding full60days. These are model frequencies, not estimated real win odds, Kelly inputs or trade backtest. Counterexample: intraday stop then recovery is missed. No sized action depends on simulation; preserve fixed equal slots and one-share implementation.

Supersedes2932figures. Audit found firstday started economic49.21 at priorclose while treating49.21 as entry; unowned firstovernightmovement entered payoff. Correct firstdayOHLC ratios relative to sampledopen so entryopen exactly49.21; subsequentday ratios remain priorclose-based. Other specification unchanged:20000paired40sessionpaths,5dayblocks2021-24,seed91206,2ADRstop3Rtarget,1bpfee5bpslip,3.41exsession5 deductedfromeconomicOHLC. Include dividend receivable only for priordayholders; not cashreinvestment. Staticrawstop:88.865%stop,10.53%target,.605%timeout,41.96%stoppedonexday,mean+.8081302%,median-.2303364%,win48.645%. Adjustbothlevelsby3.41onexday:66.105%stop,31.15%target,2.745%timeout,6.10%stoppedonexday,mean+1.5436493%,median-5.5940764%,win33.41%. Entitlement73.385%both. Directional mechanics finding survives; neither policy calibrated to currentevent stock expectancy. Levels adjusted is hypothetical, not a venueinstruction. Does not model15minchecks,trailing/partialmanagement,taxes, market-specific dividend repricing orcurrentwar regime. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; declaration https://www.frontlineplc.cy/fro-declares-special-one-time-dividend-after-sale-of-two-vllcs/ . No orders.

Training net closed-trade outcomes from2920-27; no holdout fitting. Binary approximation b=average win/absolute average loss; halfKelly risk fraction=.5*max(0,p-(1-p)/b). Mapping to current stop-percent assumes one average historical loss corresponds to that prospective risk unit; no claim exact growth-optimal sizing. Full notional=min(fund170.20,position212.7475,halfKelly*850.99/currentrisk,3%equity/currentrisk,3%equity/30%gap)=85.099. Gap assumption30% is subjective, not a measured worst case; larger gaps still possible. Quarter probe21.27475, below one share for either tanker; do not round up to a full share because the account needs349.01. One quarter probe's 30%gap loss6.382425=.75%account. 20000IID20trade paths, seed91206, constantfraction85.099/850.99 rebalanced with future allocations ignored; 5%pertrade outcome replaced with min(original,-30%) stress is a sensitivity, not forecast. Exact fixed/managed inputs and P05/P50/P95/95thDD: [{"symbol":"STNG","managed":false,"trainingN":26,"p":0.46153846153846156,"avgwin_pct":18.695275670181577,"avgloss_pct":7.111644211680803,"b":2.628826065212146,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.12835440279960536,"gap_stress_pct":30,"gap_budget_pct":3,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"whole_probe":0,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"p_loss_pct":7.625,"PnL_p05_p50_p95":[-11.385757553278578,80.4081455450203,193.47724097016433],"DD95_pct":6.1364220172558985,"stress_loss_pct":21.875,"stressDD95_pct":9.80049493827431},{"symbol":"STNG","managed":true,"trainingN":27,"p":0.4444444444444444,"avgwin_pct":16.852046788213258,"avgloss_pct":7.212904794472147,"b":2.3363744938278397,"halfKelly_risk_fraction":0.10332956245744462,"gap_stress_pct":30,"gap_budget_pct":3,"full_notional":85.099,"quarter_probe":21.27475,"whole_probe":0,"paths":20000,"horizon_trades":20,"p_loss_pct":13.22,"PnL_p05_p50_p95":[-24.308019388991966,57.64536238639504,157.85314757831037],"DD95_pct":6.525196212787598,"stress_loss_pct":31.165,"stressDD95_pct":10.381679167648542}]. These final paths supersede precap26294-97; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Positive training Kelly does not override negative fixed holdout and managed stress holdout; eligible live size remains zero.