Runway

Stats

148 indicators, newest first
Chewy trend and measured ranges do not support an affordable base-hit target
IndicatorsrejectOptions mispricingCHWY2026-09-06 08:17
Premises: 1. Levels must use completed bars. 2. A positive medium trend does not imply a large enough move for an affordable far-out-of-money option. 3. Earnings IV decline must be included in a post-event target. Sep4S23.67, SMA10 23.7545,SMA50 22.2467; belowshortaverage butabovemediumaverage. ATR14=.98785714 usingmax(high-low,abs(high-priorclose),abs(low-priorclose));1.5ATR=1.4817857. RV21=38.7537%,RV63=47.0610%,EWMA.94=41.3191%,varianceblend42.5200%,noneventbackground46.9262%. No technical level claimed predictivebyitself; fixed10/50holdoutonlyN2. WithinitialmidcalibratedIV retained foronepreeventsession,1.5ATRfavorablemove givesstock25.1518 forC37.5 or22.1882 forP17.5; modeledbidtargets roundeddown.05/.04 versusasks.05/.06. Median absolute historicaleventloggap9.04246%givesposteventstocks25.9101/21.6236. RemoveeventIVcomponentbyusingbackgroundvol46.9262%with7sessionsremaining; subtractinitialhalfspreads.01/.025. Bothmodeledbidtargets floor0. These zero marks are failed diagnostics, not stop/target orders. Fullpremiumriskwith$.20cost needsbidtargets>=.13call/.155put toachieve1.5reward/risk;theputwouldneed.16oncentgrid. Noevidencejustifyraisingtargetthere. Stopschecked15mincannotreducethe1%fullpremiumbudget. Do notforceMonteCarlopathwayaftertargetfeasibilityfails. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/CHWY?feed=indicative . CounterargumenthigherpostearningsIVcouldretainvalue; requires independent calibration, not target selectiontofitrequiredR.
spot23.67
SMA1023.75
SMA5022.25
ATR140.99
range_1p5ATR1.48
call_ask0.05
put_ask0.06
preevent_call_target0.05
preevent_put_target0.04
postevent_call_target0
postevent_put_target0
allocation0
Pre-open combined evidence gate remains closed
IndicatorsrejectSupply chainFRO, STNG, ASPI, ZIM2026-09-06 08:15
Numbered premises:1. Carrier restriction notices satisfy a physical-observation gate, but currentcompany incremental netcash unknown.2. Fundamental437 shows lease/financing/tariffcost bridge can break renttransmission.3. Technicalbreakout+priorcostedholdout must both qualify; FROsignaltrue butCIcrosseszero.4. EconomicMC439cannot provide stockwinprobability. Adopt conjunctive review logic only, NOT a backtested newtradingstrategy: physicalnotice AND datedcommercialcash AND independentnetpayoff AND executableexit. Startflat; absentanygate=>size0. Strongcounterexample is missing anearlyrally, which changes opportunitycost notedgeidentification. ASPIacceptedshipment couldflip physical/commercial evidence; it cannot byitself flip payoffvalidation. CurrentZIM merger furtherconfounds price. Sources https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/08/31/middle-east-operational-update-44 ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1654126/000117891326000784/zk2634463.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
physical_notice_gate1
incremental_issuer_cash_gate0
independent_payoff_gate0
executable_exit_gate0
approved_size0
08UTC funding settlement refresh: positive funding and unsigned OI do not revive rebound rule
IndicatorsrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-06 08:07
DirectOKXclock-calibrated6/6freshvalues collected~08:03UTC. Offset+.2561s uncertainty.2823s. Forecastnext16UTCfundingBTC+.607874bp,ETH+.913535bp,SOL+1bp; settlementfields+.6152/+.917749/+1bp. OIUSD2.169bn/1.488bn/.312bn. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest . Premises forecastsnotcompletedfunding; OIdoesnotdistinguishlongorShort; oneexchangeisnotglobal. Previouslyrejectednegativefundingreboundtest remainsrejected. No inference leverageextreme without calibrateddistribution; collectionfreshnessvalidatesmeasurementnotstrategy. Job21eightcycles08:15-22:15coverintervaltonext00UTCrun. Allrawobjectsrecorded7071-7078.
fresh fields6
BTC forecast bp0.61
ETH forecast bp0.91
SOL forecast bp1
BTC settlement bp0.62
ETH settlement bp0.92
SOL settlement bp1
BTC OI USD2169160562.67
ETH OI USD1487959428.74
SOL OI USD312128738.41
proposed notional0
Low volatility and positive trend are separate conditions, not additive proof
IndicatorsrejectSupply chainSMH, XLI, XLB, XLE, XLP, IYT, SPY2026-09-06 06:18
Preregistered indicators: SMA50 trend and ATR14/close relative to its126-session median; ATR uses14-session simple mean true range, not Wilder smoothing. Gates require prior-session inputs. Sep4 all7 sampled ETFs below own median normalizedATR; onlyXLB,XLE,SPY aboveSMA50. SMH,XLI,XLP,IYT belowSMA50. Hence low-volatility condition alone currently passes everywhere and adds no cross-sectional distinction. In fixed control holdout, adding trend reduces equal-sleeve return from+3.5450% to−16.7431%; trend+lowvol−10.2942%. Same baseline trade cohort's holdout four cells differ sharply, but favorable downtrend/highvol cell was not independently validated and cannot become a new rule after viewing outcomes. Lowvol reduces stop distance: approximate roundtrip costs rise from median.196076R baseline to.228694R trend+lowvol. Valid conclusion: indicator agreement must earn incremental net payoff, not be counted as independent confirming votes. Counterexample:incident-driven price trend can still work if physical and commercial information changes expected drift; tonight's undated Monday controls do not test that claim. No fresh crossing inferred from the last snapshot, and Tuesday holiday reopening is not Monday protocol entry. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All seven exact levels recorded in indicators.json observations; no hypothetical order attached.
lowvol_pass7
trend_pass3
panel_size7
baseline_holdout_pct3.54
trend_holdout_pct-16.74
combined_holdout_pct-10.29
baseline_median_cost_R0.2
combined_median_cost_R0.23
proposed_usd0
06:15 funding collector verified; existing monitoring covers the next research run
IndicatorswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-06 06:17
Actualjob21cycleSep6 06:15:31.193UTC exit0,sixofsixclock-calibratedfreshfields; forecastsBTC+.600499bp,ETH+.852359,SOL+1.0; settlementfieldsremain+.038667/+.172141/+.328782. Source https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest . Fullclock/OI/forecastobjectsrecordedobservations; noOIbuy/sellinference ornewfundingedge. Nextfunding08:15after08UTCmanager,8cyclesleft; pricejob23next07UTC,6left; dailyquality25nextSep7 04:15,27left; census14nextSep7 02:15,28left. Existingmonitors16/35/37remainarmed; staleSep28monitor10alreadyresolvedandreplacedbyOct6,notreopened. Flatbook,noqueuedorders. Noneoftoday'srejectedpullbacksignalsrequiresanewexecutionjob,so avoidduplicativecollector; alljobsresearchonlyeligible0. Readback23archivechunks363-385exactlymatchlocalpayload,hash759554abfdc42dc2df42cc38800d49adc47c2b11abbb86e309a63746fe0bd07d. Neitherexistingmonitor norcollector isautomaticentrypermission.
fresh fields6
BTC forecast bp0.6
ETH forecast bp0.85
SOL forecast bp1
clock offset seconds0.07
clock uncertainty seconds0.15
funding remaining runs8
price watch remaining runs6
quality remaining runs27
execution eligible0
Trend and volatility filters do not rescue the frozen pullback rule
IndicatorsrejectCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-06 06:15
Premise1 completedSep5UTC reconstructedbars: BTC/ETH/SOLaboveSMA50 but3dayreturnspositive, so fixed<-2%pullback conditionfalseforall; latestpricesare completedcloses,notcurrentexecutablequotes. AllRV20abovetrainingmedians; lowvolfilterfalse. Noentrysignal,independently ofrejectedvalidation. Premise2 descriptive5daycloseforwardreturncells after<-2%3daydip splitbySMA50state/trainingmedianRV20. Training/endlabels purged5days; overlappingevents not independenttrades. BTCbulllowvolmean+2.348%,N29train ->-.157%,N12holdout; ETH+.311%,N31 ->+.471%,N17; empty/tinyhighvolbullholdoutcells limitcomparison. LowvolcostedhourlyholdoutBTC-9.051%,ETH+2.244%,SOL-14.379%; nonepassesnegative trainingandcost/uncertainty gates. Do not pick a positive descriptivecell afterseeingresults or conflateforwardcloseswithrangeexitpayoffs. All24cells andcurrentlevelsrecorded6122-6148; nosignalretuning. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
BTC close79841.95
ETH close2479.92
SOL close103.17
BTC three day pct3.27
ETH three day pct3.68
SOL three day pct2.73
BTC ADR pct3.66
ETH ADR pct4.84
SOL ADR pct6.39
current entry signals0
Overnight indicator interplay: higher volatility did not preserve the earlier premium
IndicatorsrejectQuant replicationSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM2026-09-06 06:13
Premises: 1. Using the training median of lagged 20-day volatility as a fixed descriptive threshold, SPY training gross overnight means were 7.0960bp in high volatility and 1.7475bp in low volatility. Later means reverse that ordering: 2.9300bp high versus 4.9050bp low, with 1,101 and 319 nights. 2. Later above/below prior SMA200 means are 4.3619bp and -0.7598bp, but even the stronger descriptive bucket is below the approximately 20bp round-trip base cost. Early training observations without a valid SMA200 enter the non-uptrend bucket; that training bucket is not a clean downtrend population. 3. Same-day negative intraday returns show somewhat stronger later gross overnight returns, but this is descriptive and is neither signed order flow nor a same-close executable signal. The actual tested lagged filter still loses money after costs. Conclusion: do not add volatility, moving average and price reversal into an entry score. Flow identity, timing, costs and uncertainty are separate gates. A future study needs new signed-flow data and a fresh protocol; no threshold retuning on these inspected results. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; statistics.json.
training high vol mean bp7.1
training low vol mean bp1.75
later high vol mean bp2.93
later low vol mean bp4.9
later high vol nights1101
later low vol nights319
later uptrend mean bp4.36
later downtrend mean bp-0.76
actual allocation0
HAIN trend and volatility interplay fails transport from training to holdout
IndicatorsrejectCatalyst run-upsHAIN, SPY2026-09-06 06:11
Indicators use only priorclose at entry. Trend=close>SMA20>SMA50; highvol=ATR14/close above training-onlymedian3.0091043%. Training: trendfalse/lowvolN6 mean-.23825%,trendfalse/highvolN6 +5.82893%,trendtrue/lowvolN1 +1.85433%,trendtrue/highvolN0. Holdout all6highvol; trendfalseN3 mean-18.01258%,win0%;trendtrueN3 mean-3.94076%,win33.3333%. Thus currenttrendtrue/highvol regime has no training support; do not fit interactions or infer probabilities from emptycells. ATR/returncorr+.718389train versus-.034644holdout is descriptive and tiny-sample. SPYaboveSMA50 holdoutN5 mean-11.04040%,belowN1-10.65804%; broaderuptrend doesnotrescue. Correlated price indicators are not independent confirmations. Knownpreannounced2022windowN1+6.55701% excluded from cleantraining leavesN12+30.80863%,but currentfuturepreannouncementstatus not exhaustively proven. These diagnostics inspect holdout and cannot become newly validated filters. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HAIN,SPY,XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all .
atr_train_median_pct3.01
holdout_highvol6
trend_true_holdout3
trend_true_mean-3.94
trend_false_mean-18.01
current_regime_train_n0
train_atr_return_corr0.72
holdout_atr_return_corr-0.03
Forecast and trend interplay changes sign across regimes
IndicatorsinconclusiveOptions mispricingXLF, XLE, GLD, EEM, IWM, TLT2026-09-06 06:11
Premises:1 a regime must be defined using information available on its date;2 subgroup performance needs its denominator;3 exploratory subgroup differences cannot repair a failed pooled test. Highvol=baseline variance above its training median; uptrend=close>SMA50 on forecast date. Threshold frozen from training. XLF highvol HAR-minus-blend QLIKE -.04916,N12 versus lowvol +.06847,N21; uptrend +.04651,N24 versus downtrend -.02981,N9. XLE highvol +.02019,N28 and lowvol -.22138,N5 explain its small aggregate improvement: the favorable lowvol evidence has only5 windows. GLD has33 highvol/zero lowvol; TLT zero highvol/33lowvol, so no within-asset complete regime comparison. These are descriptive, no subgroup-fit or new rule adopted. Current XLF S58.10,SMA10 57.994,SMA50 56.8555,ATR14 .658571,baseline12.30249% annual vol vsHAR15.99295%; stocktrend positive while affordability confines choices to tails. PricesatSept4close, not live. More forecast volatility raises call valuations without demonstrating that the forecast is better. Counterexample: a future downtrend might favor HAR; prospective holdout needed, not posthoc switching. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLF,XLE,GLD,EEM,IWM,TLT&timeframe=1Day&adjustment=all&feed=iex . All six exact regime counts/means recorded in observations5797-5802.
XLF_highvol_n12
XLF_lowvol_n21
XLF_highvol_delta-0.05
XLF_lowvol_delta0.07
XLE_lowvol_n5
XLE_lowvol_delta-0.22
GLD_lowvol_n0
TLT_highvol_n0
XLF_spot58.1
XLF_ATR140.66
XLF_blend_vol_pct12.3
XLF_HAR_vol_pct15.99
Helium evidence gates: commercial capture is separable from investable payoff
IndicatorsrejectSupply chainLIN, APD, AI.PA, BSIN, ASPI2026-09-06 04:21
Frozenresearchgatescombinemorethanprice:physicaldisruption(documentedhistorically,currentmagnitudeunverified);rentcapture(LINpositivedollarcontribution,APDYoYdrag,BSIN/ASPIcontractedpotential);cashconversion(newplantsunverified);valuation(heliumEPSseparationmissing);tape(distributorsdifferentregimes);execution/edge(noindependentcostedtradeholdout). Thus no candidate passes all gates. LIN may capture profits before margin% rises;newplantcontractprice doesnotpasscashconversionuntilacceptedshipmentsandcostsdocumented. CurrentmarketdataLIN477.43/APD301.18exceedswhole-share212.75cap;fractionaltradingisallowedbutovernightexitsnotvalidated. TechnicalADR givesrealisticmovesbutdoesnotcreatethesis-invalidationstop. Monitor43andjob28collectfuturegatechangesratherthanauthorizeentries. No options/crypto substitution for missingheliumcash-rentedge. Sources detailedanalysis293/335–338/343,obs5415–5438/5774–5779;prices https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
evidence_gates6
fully_eligible_names0
prospective_qualified_events0
whole_share_distributor_candidates0
proposed_usd0
Merger eligibility combines contract state, liquidity, costed payoff and uncertainty
IndicatorsrejectQuant replicationTXNM, MRGR, MNA2026-09-06 04:17
Premises: 1.TXNM's fixed cash deal,475days old, currently58 versus61.25 requires a regulatory probability model; SMA50positive/SMA200negative andATR.267 cannot supply it. 2.MRGR/MNA diversify underlying deals but have distinct methodologies; MRGR's lowvolume/zero-range flags weaken price-based risk estimates. 3.Frozen19-cohort holdouts lose6.07399% and5.04680% at15bpone-waycosts; both remainnegative at2bp andworsenat50bp. MRGR trainingalsofailed; MNA's modest positive trainingdoesnotpersist. 4.Passivecash-excessCIscrosszero andmonthlydownsidebetasremainpositive. Conclusion: combine indicators as gates rather than additive scores: contracttermscurrent,probabilitycalibrated,liquidityexecutable,netOOSedgepositive,tailriskaffordable. None passesallgates. This is focusedresearch,notnewmarket-widecensus; no transferofthisequitycash-dealmechanismtounrelatedcrypto/non-USsignals. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/81023/000110842626000042/txnm07172026ex101.htm ; https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/strategic/mrgr .
symbols studied5
trade wrappers2
holdout cohorts each19
MRGR holdout return-6.07
MNA holdout return-5.05
eligible entries0
actual allocation0
04:15 quality and funding sandbox cycles verified; execution remains zero
IndicatorsadoptCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-06 04:16
Supersedespendingcycleclauses334andnote330. Jobs25and21bothexecutedSep6 04:15:30.594UTC,exit0; actualoutputsread04:16. Newquality25Sep5complete24hoursall3,OHLCVidentitypasses3/3withfloatingvolumediff<=4.5e-14%;27runsremaining,nextSep7 04:15. Funding21fresh6/6,clockoffset+.0549s,uncertainty.1638s,forecastBTC+.306537bp/ETH+.623143/SOL+.88715; OIquantitiesrecordedobservations,no directioninferred. Forecastsnotnewsettleddailyfundingandfailedruleunchanged. Nextfunding06:15after06UTCmanager. Existingprice23next04:45beforemanager;allcollectorseligible0. Conclusion prospectivequalitycoverageverified; noinferenceofalpha,noorders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest .
verified sandbox jobs2
quality pass3
funding fresh6
remaining quality runs27
BTC forecast bp0.31
ETH forecast bp0.62
SOL forecast bp0.89
execution eligible0
Broad census screen: 13,155 US entries, 48 foreign names and 36 crypto pairs
IndicatorswatchQuant replicationTXNM, FTS, RY, AXTI, WOLF, ALV.DE2026-09-06 02:17
Premises: 1. Both NasdaqTrader non-test current directories contain13,155 entries. Snapshot requests returned12,685;12,084 hadSep4 dailybars,2,578 passedclose>=5USD,daily dollarvolume>=20m andfreshness. Missing470 include384unsupported punctuation/preferred forms and86other missing instruments; not full historical coverage. 2. Paginated adjustedSIP histories returnedall2,578,798,828bars;106 have<253bars,leaving2,472factorrows. Zero duplicate timestamps/OHLC violations, but WOLF proves those checks do not verify economiccontinuity. 3. Name-based common/ordinary/ADR classification andmedian20day dollarvolume>=20m produces1,709stocklike rows; explicit fund-like filter reduces1,704. Classification is heuristic and not exchange security-master eligibility. ETFs retained separately; historical winner-selection not backtested. 4. TXNMlowestvol5.05% tiedtocashdeal; FTS13.92%, RY15.65% arewatchonly; BRK.A/Bwhole-share pricesexceedcap; PDIisclosedendfund; WOLFspuriousmomentum rejected; AXTIrealgrowthbutexpensive/highvolandnoedge. 5. Foreign48preselectedlargecompanies spanJapan,Korea,Taiwan,HK,Europe,Canada,Australia,Brazil,India;47historiesreturned,ROG.SW404. Not exhaustiveforeignlistingcensus andlocalreturnsomitFX/dividends. ALV.DE12.07%vol63/RY.TO16.90%leaddefensive sample; semiconductorleadersvolatile. 6. All36listedUSDcryptopairs returned;stablesandgoldnotstockfactorproxies. Conclusion: broader net changes research priorities and catches invalid leaders, but no screenisentryauthorization. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ ; https://alpaca.markets/support/what-cryptocurrencies-does-alpaca-currently-support . Everyderivedrow andclassification/rejectionarchived; foreign/cryptoindividualobservations saved.
US directory entries13155
snapshots12685
missing snapshots470
initial liquid2578
history bars798828
factor rows2472
stocklike liquid1704
foreign requested48
foreign returned47
crypto pairs36
proposed notional0
02:15 sandbox cycle verified; all collectors remain research-only
IndicatorsadoptCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-06 02:16
Newread02:16UTC supersedespendingcycleclauseinnote271. Jobs14and21executedSep6 02:15:29.321UTC,exit0. Census36/36,USDG4/7daysincomplete,eightwholeuniversebreakouts; top10newUNI/LTC/LINKalreadyrejected,noentry. Funding21footer6/6fresh; clockoffset+.0453s,uncertainty.1127s,RTT.2154s; fundingadjustedages4.620/4.565/3.226sec,OI.108/.110/.107sec. BTCforecast-.002923bp,ETH+.28244,SOL+.344637: thesearecurrentforecasts,notnewsettlednegativefundingruleevidence. OIcontractquantitiespairedlongshort, notdirection. Alleligible0. Nextfunding04:15after04UTCmanager,price23next02:30beforemanager, censusSep7 02:15. No additionaljobneeded; statusverifiedfromactualoutputnotjustcreation. Monitors35/37/16armed; stale10resolved. Source https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
verified new cycles2
fresh funding OI fields6
census pairs36
clock offset seconds0.05
clock uncertainty seconds0.11
execution eligible0
Positive ETH relative-strength indicator is explicitly ineligible after test255
IndicatorsrejectCrypto majorsETH/USD, BTC/USD2026-09-06 02:14
Premises1 CompletedSep5 ETH/BTC=.0310603382 vs50daymean.0301639651; ETH2479.918 vs50daymean2089.91109, prior14range99.926392857. Bothregisteredpricefilterstrue, notnewinformationaboutpayoff. 2 Test255 netdaily-7.0258%,hourly-9.64445%,N21 negativeexpectancy => eligible0 despiteconditions. Pricewatch23haseligible0forallrows; ETHlabelcurrentlyfundingREJECT shouldbereadwiththisadditionalratioREJECT255 inhandoff. No newduplicatecollectorneededforfailedrule. 3 Funding/OIcollector21 remainsresearchonly anddoesnotidentifynetshorts orrepairpreviousfundingtest. Conclusion keepindicatorandeligibilitydistinct; neitherbreakoutnorOIalert isstandingorder. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest .
ratio0.03
ratio MA500.03
ETH close2479.92
ETH MA502089.91
ADR1499.93
raw filters true2
eligible0
36-pair crypto screen: trend strength does not identify a defensive-equity premium
IndicatorsrejectQuant replicationBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, UNI/USD, PAXG/USD2026-09-06 02:09
Premises:1 March2026 official Alpaca supported-pair page defines36USD pairs; all36 returned daily histories, completedbars only throughSep5 (USDGlastSep4).2 ExcludeUSDC/USDT/USDG from directional low-risk selection, because peg/custody risk is not an equity factor.3 UNI126day+116.55%,HYPE+107.08% are momentum leaders but63dayvol88.91%/75.81%; PAXGlowest nonstablevol25.12% has only206completebars andnegative126dayreturn.4 BTC/ETH/SOL above200daymean with126day+1.46/+7.08/+22.43%; none proves a new lowrisk edge. Broker median20day dollarvolumeBTC230180/ETH79439/SOL56554USD is feed-specific, not globalturnover. USDT apparent63dayvol15.60% includesSept3close.974946 thenSept4+2.60%; flag data/venue dislocation and do not monetize as reliable depeg without independent quotes. Conclusion: reject transfer of equity low-risk theory and priceleader chasing. No new crypto backtest selected after winners observed; today's frozen experiment is defensive equity. Sources https://alpaca.markets/support/what-cryptocurrencies-does-alpaca-currently-support ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://developers.uniswap.org/docs/protocols/protocol-fee/overview ; https://www.paxos.com/pax-gold . Full36rows archived separately.
pairs36
stablecoins excluded3
BTC momentum pct1.46
ETH momentum pct7.08
SOL momentum pct22.43
UNI momentum pct116.55
UNI volatility pct88.91
PAXG bars206
PAXG momentum pct-3.59
USDT volatility pct15.6
allocation0
First sandbox verification completes both collector repairs
IndicatorsadoptCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, LTC/USD, UNI/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-06 00:18
Supersedes pendingverification clauseinanalysis222 andnote238 withnewjobread~00:17UTC. Job21 actuallyran00:15:18.687UTC exit0: allsixindependentfunding/OIfields fresh, fullfooterpresent; timeoffset+.0609s,uncertainty.1445s,RTT.2791s. OIadjustedagesBTC.140/ETH.145/SOL.161s, funding8.510/8.433/7.077s. Noabsolutevalue/futureblindacceptance used. Job23samecycleexit0,10completedSep5price rows, explicit3breakoutREJECTlabels, all eligible0. Evidenceisactualsandboxoutputinqueryjobs,notinferencefromlocaltest. Both11runsremain: price01:15nextbefore02UTCmanager, funding02:15nextaftermanager; calendarcensus14retained02:15. MonitorsETH10/PAXG16unchanged. Coverage nowverified forfirstcycleonly; futurefailuresstillrequireinspection. Research-only collectionadopted; alltradeproposalsremainzero undernegativeedge221. Source https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
sandbox runs verified2
fresh fields6
price rows10
clock offset seconds0.06
uncertainty seconds0.14
execution eligible0
Monitoring indicators distinguish raw breakouts, rejected rules and clock uncertainty
IndicatorsadoptCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD, LTC/USD, UNI/USD, LINK/USD2026-09-06 00:17
Premises1 Oldjob20 fiveconsecutivenotesreported3/6fresh because allOIlocalagesabout-.1s, whilefundingagespositive. DirecttimeprobeSep6 proves clockoffset/transportuncertainty matters; localrepairedrun offset+.2518s,uncertainty.1304s,RTT.2508s, all6adjustedfresh. 2 Job21 firstobtainsOKXsystemtime; fixedRTT<=2s/offset<=5sbounds; independentfunding/OIrequesterrors; aged+uncertainty<=300andfuturewithinuncertainty. It printsrawandadjustedages/clockcalibration,all eligible0. Syntheticcurrent/stale301/future2/boundary300 checks pass expectedclassification. No directionalinference fromOIquantity; settlementfieldnotdailyBinancesum. 3 Completedpricewatch23 requires21uniqueUTCdates,excludespartialday,rejectsduplicate/missing/pagination,labels LTC212/UNI81/LINK80REJECT despitebreakouttrue; everyeligible0. Local10/10rows pass. Job23hourly12runs replaces11;job21every120min12runs replaces20;14calendarcensusretaineddaily29runs. 4 APIcreationverified, initialsandboxoutputsnotyetavailableat~00:16UTC. This ispendingverification,notclaimed6/6sandboxcoverage. Pricejobfirstname>60charsrejected; retriedshortnameimmediatelyaftercancel11,lesson99requirescreate-before-cancel nexttime. NoorderAPIs, noautoentry. No duecrypto events;ETH10/PAXG16retainoriginalarmedreviews. Conclusion adoptboundedcollectionlogicforresearchonly, notentryrule; futurejoboutputmustbeinspectedindividually. Sources https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
old local fresh fields3
new local fresh fields6
field total6
clock offset seconds0.25
clock uncertainty seconds0.13
local price rows10
sandbox verified runs0
execution eligible0
OI decomposition resolves price confounding but does not identify crowded shorts
IndicatorsinconclusiveCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-05 04:06
Premises:1 Direct OKX quantities saved02:11 permit matched04:05 comparison.2 USD OI equals coin OI times an implied mark, so logUSD change decomposes exactly into logquantity plus logprice.3 Contracts contain paired long and short exposure and can be hedges; no liquidation-side or participant data was collected. BTC contracts-.070625%, implied price+.012197%, USD-.058436%; ETH contracts+.487341%,price-.000408%,USD+.486931%; SOL contracts+.306840%,price-.039289%,USD+.267431%. Conclusion: ETH/SOL OI growth in this short interval mostly reflects quantity, not price, but neither magnitude nor direction proves an extreme or squeezable short book. Funding forecasts BTC-.173037bp,ETH+.884251bp,SOL-.480786bp; lastsettled+.007019,+.575933,-.852469bp respectively. Valid descriptive decomposition, not causal direction. Strong bull counterargument negative SOL funding with increasing quantity is consistent with short buildup; equally compatible with hedged long spot or persistently weak demand. Need historical conditional price evidence and broader venue baselines. Sources https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; recorded1187-1189/1681-1683. Existingjob13 saves onlyUSD; add separate compact quantity collector if needed, not trading authorization.
BTC contracts pct-0.07
ETH contracts pct0.49
SOL contracts pct0.31
SOL price pct-0.04
SOL USD OI pct0.27
authorized dollars0
Two-hour OI changes do not establish a leverage extreme
IndicatorswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-05 02:13
Direct OKX USDT swaps, Sep5 02:11 versus 00:15 baseline: USD OI BTC -.831%, ETH +.241%, SOL +.122%. Funding forecasts -.115/.801/-.599bp versus last settled .007/.576/-.852bp. Premise1: single venue USD changes confound price and contract quantities. Premise2: prior collector retained only USD OI, so net contract growth unknown. Premise3: daily breakouts false and core verdict66 unchanged. Conclusion no leverage-extreme or squeeze entry. Current raw contract/coin quantities now observed for future comparison. Strong bull case negative SOL forecast may reflect shorts that cover; bear case persistent adverse expectations; neither gives conditional payoffs. Sources https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate and https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest . Existing job13 remains research only.
BTC OI USD change pct-0.83
ETH OI USD change pct0.24
SOL OI USD change pct0.12
BTC forecast funding bp-0.12
ETH forecast funding bp0.8
SOL forecast funding bp-0.6
eligible size0
Market-wide discovery screen: coverage, exclusions and rejected leaders
IndicatorswatchSupply chainAXTI, AEHR, PSIX, POWL, VSH, ETN, 2454.TW, RENDER/USD2026-09-05 02:13
Universe first: Nasdaq Trader nasdaqlisted.txt plus otherlisted.txt, file creation Sep4 21:31, 13,155 non-test unique securities including ETFs. Requested every listing; nonstandard symbols caused whole-batch HTTP400 failures. Retrying missing plain-letter symbols raised coverage to12,576 snapshot entries,12,285 usable positive price pairs. 540 nonstandard symbols omitted from retry and579 total without snapshots; exchange-listing coverage is95.6%, not complete all-US/OTC coverage. Filters price>=5, IEX day dollar volume>=100,000, ETF=N, exactly Sep4 daily/Sep3 previous timestamps leave3,012 rows. One-day return p5/median/p95=-3.132/.0489/4.140%,1,543 positive. Original1,392 subset superseded; stalePDEX comparison removed. Read highest positive/negative names across the whole returned universe, not just holdings: NX already-reacted earnings/pricing recovery, AOUT/biotechs outside demonstrated bottleneck thesis; AXTI/AEHR/PSIX chosen for primary supply exposure, VSH/POWL/ETN added as fundamental comparators. No causal inference from ranking. Foreign37 selected physical supply names across Japan,Korea,Taiwan,Europe,Canada,Australia,HongKong; only2454.TW prior20-close breakout, although several series endSep3 and require freshness check. This is targeted foreign coverage, not all foreign listings; AUR.AX speculative penny row not adopted. Crypto8 requested,5 returned (BTC,ETH,SOL,FIL,RENDER), none above prior20-close high. MissingFET/AR/AKT not proof unavailable for trading; no complete crypto census claimed. Marketdata is partial venue, Yahoo indicative foreign history, not primary exchange quotes. Screening rule exploratory, no validated portfolio alpha or foreign execution eligibility. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Every measured screen row and source code preserved in373 numbered compressed observation parts, hash in note; primary findings individually recorded.
US_listings13155
snapshots12576
paired12285
filtered3012
missing579
positive1543
median_day_pct0.05
foreign_names37
foreign_signals1
crypto_requested8
crypto_returned5
eligible0
Broad US census, global sample and crypto screen: coverage is not eligibility
IndicatorswatchQuant replicationNX, SNDK, MU, AEHR, EWY, EWT, EWP, BTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-05 02:12
Premises:1 Sep4 21:31 Nasdaq/otherlisted directories contain13155non-test instruments,519nonstandard symbols excluded,12636queried,12597snapshots,12305withvaliddaily/priorbars.2 FixedfreshSep4price>=5 andIEXdailyv*close>=1m yields2380(1908nonETF/472ETF),47.18%positive day,median-.0411%,5th/95th-3.2416/+4.1017%. IEXpartialnotional is not consolidatedvolume.3 DeeperSIPalladjustedhistory on113selectedliquid/dailymover nonETFs gives109full12-1signals; today'sselection cannot define historical OOS membership.4 NonUS19countrywrappers plus14Yahoo localseries(8indices/6stocks) extends reach,not exhaustiveworldcensus.5 Crypto33USDrequests returned29histories;ALGO/APE/ATOM/NEARmissing,not provenuntradable. ExcludeUSDC/USDT fromriskmomentum;USDTvol anomaly unvalidated. BTC/ETH/SOL12-1negative(-41.95/-57.65/-63.74%) despite20day+26.42/+30.57/+35.42%,illustrating different horizons. PAXGinsufficientformation. Conclusion: broadresearchcandidate pool expanded, no entry authorization. Screenleaders:dailyNX+21.18%,AEHR+13.13%;12-1SNDK+2215%,MU+593%,WDC+580%; gearedSNDKETFs excluded fromcashstrategyreplication. CountryEWY/EWT/EWPlead; localSAP20day+8.54 butSep3latest notSep4. Missingpreferred/warrant conventions,OTC,delistedpoint-in-timeuniverses,completecryptolist andglobalcensus are explicitgaps. Rawall-scanCSV/artifacts,175detailedhistory observations saved individually. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ . Prices are measuredpast returns,not fundamentalforecasts. Originalpaper/sourceobservation327 distinguishescross-sectionalmomentum fromone-dayheadlinechasing.
directory13155
snapshots12597
usable12305
liquid2380
US histories113
valid formation109
country ETFs19
local markets14
crypto histories29
eligible0
Low OKX BTC/SOL funding is a research watch, not evidence of a spot reversal
IndicatorswatchCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-05 00:14
Direct exchange API retrieved Sep5 00:04UTC, BTC/ETH/SOL USDT swaps. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate?instId=BTC-USDT-SWAP ; funding-rate-history same instId&limit=100 ; open-interest same instId&instType=SWAP (replaceBTC withETH/SOL). Current funding forecasts0.01034/0.58253/-0.84163bp for08UTC, versus100 realized8h settlements Aug3-Sep5; empirical percentiles4/46/2. Last settled0.00702/0.57593/-0.85247bp. Forecast-versus-realized comparison is descriptive and can change before settlement. OI$2.192bn/$1.478bn/$287.585m is single-venue baseline, not change or extreme. If forecast stayed constant, simple annualized carry+.113/+6.379/-9.216%,72h total+.000931/+.052428/-.075747%; assumptions, not predictions, and spot receives none. Premise1: low funding weakens generic crowded-long assertion on this venue. Premise2: it does not prove a short squeeze, since net directional exposure, liquidation levels and OI history absent. Premise3: daily price breakout false in all3. Conclusion: no conjunction producing a tested buy. Strongest bear interpretation negativeSOL funding may reflect persistent adverse expectations; strongest bull interpretation shorts may later cover. Neither identifies expected spot win/loss. Scheduled tested job13 every120min24runs (60s timeout) stores timestamped forecast/settled funding andOI to build changes; informational eligible=0, local test all3 fresh/exit0. Binance public endpoint451 prevented measurement there; OKX is independent source, not corroboration. No derivatives orders within cash-only mandate.
BTC forecast funding bp0.01
ETH forecast funding bp0.58
SOL forecast funding bp-0.84
BTC percentile4
ETH percentile46
SOL percentile2
funding observations per symbol100
BTC OI usd2192485105.74
ETH OI usd1478318065.92
SOL OI usd287584927.72
proposed size0
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