Stats

1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2021-2025 later window:59 completed cohorts; these market years were previously inspected for other rules, not pristine independent OOS. Buy last monthly session open, sell fourth next-month session open. Timing adaptation differs from the original close-to-close paper; no stop/target. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.

1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2016-2020 training:58 completed cohorts after warm-up; cross-split turns purged. Buy last monthly session open, sell fourth next-month session open. Timing adaptation differs from the original close-to-close paper; no stop/target. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.

1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2026 through September4:8 completed cohorts, descriptive recent check. Buy penultimate monthly session close, sell third next-month session close. Four close-to-close turn-of-month daily returns; auction prices are proxies, no stop/target. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.

1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2021-2025 later window:59 completed cohorts; these market years were previously inspected for other rules, not pristine independent OOS. Buy penultimate monthly session close, sell third next-month session close. Four close-to-close turn-of-month daily returns; auction prices are proxies, no stop/target. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.

1.Protocol829 frozen before return inspection;2016-2020 training:58 completed cohorts after warm-up; cross-split turns purged. Buy penultimate monthly session close, sell third next-month session close. Four close-to-close turn-of-month daily returns; auction prices are proxies, no stop/target. 2. Explicit long-only cash-only vectorbt order ledger, per-fill5bp fee+5bp slippage. Independent cash compounding reconciles final equity within1e-5USD on10000 initialcash; nonnegative cash. Sample counts full entry cohorts,not partial fills. Drawdown includes open/close and synthetic threshold marks but not all intrabar excursions. 3. Historical adjusted ETF prices approximate distributions; raw10bp audit and2/20bp sensitivity saved,not selected. Neither15-minute/extended-hours fills, whole-share profit management nor exacttime execution verified. Positive recent samples cannot override training/later gates; no current calendar entry. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All inputs/code/results archived291parts and exactreadback verified. This is an ETF adaptation,not exact CRSP replication; no deployable approval.

Fixed rule note827/831:480-observation priorhigh breakout above2400SMA,exitbelow240priorlow; next observedopen onlyif adjacentbar exactly1hour. Vectorbt long-only,25bpfee/side,10bpbaseline and30bpstressslippage. Development2023–2025 afterlast>3hourgap (SOLAug26 2024, LTCFeb6 2023); sweep360/480/720 onlydevelopment. HoldoutJan1–Sep7 2026,5999bars,1missinghour. Previouslyseen2026market is descriptive chronologicalholdout, futurepaperwindow untouched. Results {"symbol":"LTC/USD","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"holdout","lookback_days":20,"slippage":0.001,"start":"2026-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 23:00:00+00:00","bars":5999,"original_bars":32296,"removed_prior_long_gap":870,"missing_bars":1,"buyhold_pct":-28.01352223605886,"return_pct":9.78543028946635,"drawdown_pct":12.6752868329995,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":6.9266975015801355,"expectancy_pct":-6.9266975015801355,"raw_quarter_kelly":null,"open_trades":1,"returns":[-0.06926697501580135]}. Stressreturn 9.12912357956271%,DD12.6752868329993%. Premises1 closedN1 insufficient;2 dailyN1 failsindependentcrossfrequencycalibration;3 venue stop/target/profitmanagement/15minfills untested. Conclusion zeroallocation. BTC/SOL/LTC markedreturns includeoneopenhypotheticaltrade; ETH N3 allclosed butreturn+.6572% turns−.5434% understress. RawETHquarterKelly1.332% isnaive,N3 cannot supportit; otherslackbothwin/lossgroups. Strongbullcounterexample slowerturnover captureslargepersistenttrends; appliesonlyafternewindependentvalidation. Currentcandidate allfour dailyentryfalse. Fees/slippage areassumptions,actualLTCroundtrip1.1145% exceedseven1.1%stressapproximation beforeextraimpact. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Code test_hourly.py, hourly_results.json. No PROPOSE.

Fixed rule note827/831:480-observation priorhigh breakout above2400SMA,exitbelow240priorlow; next observedopen onlyif adjacentbar exactly1hour. Vectorbt long-only,25bpfee/side,10bpbaseline and30bpstressslippage. Development2023–2025 afterlast>3hourgap (SOLAug26 2024, LTCFeb6 2023); sweep360/480/720 onlydevelopment. HoldoutJan1–Sep7 2026,5999bars,1missinghour. Previouslyseen2026market is descriptive chronologicalholdout, futurepaperwindow untouched. Results {"symbol":"SOL/USD","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"holdout","lookback_days":20,"slippage":0.001,"start":"2026-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 23:00:00+00:00","bars":5999,"original_bars":22219,"removed_prior_long_gap":4410,"missing_bars":1,"buyhold_pct":-16.63728895223947,"return_pct":13.39139482718776,"drawdown_pct":19.743274020322577,"n":2,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":7.376045962281211,"expectancy_pct":-7.376045962281211,"raw_quarter_kelly":null,"open_trades":1,"returns":[-0.06905612018720701,-0.07846479905841719]}. Stressreturn 12.263575788131092%,DD20.382769207906904%. Premises1 closedN2 insufficient;2 dailyN1 failsindependentcrossfrequencycalibration;3 venue stop/target/profitmanagement/15minfills untested. Conclusion zeroallocation. BTC/SOL/LTC markedreturns includeoneopenhypotheticaltrade; ETH N3 allclosed butreturn+.6572% turns−.5434% understress. RawETHquarterKelly1.332% isnaive,N3 cannot supportit; otherslackbothwin/lossgroups. Strongbullcounterexample slowerturnover captureslargepersistenttrends; appliesonlyafternewindependentvalidation. Currentcandidate allfour dailyentryfalse. Fees/slippage areassumptions,actualLTCroundtrip1.1145% exceedseven1.1%stressapproximation beforeextraimpact. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Code test_hourly.py, hourly_results.json. No PROPOSE.

Fixed rule note827/831:480-observation priorhigh breakout above2400SMA,exitbelow240priorlow; next observedopen onlyif adjacentbar exactly1hour. Vectorbt long-only,25bpfee/side,10bpbaseline and30bpstressslippage. Development2023–2025 afterlast>3hourgap (SOLAug26 2024, LTCFeb6 2023); sweep360/480/720 onlydevelopment. HoldoutJan1–Sep7 2026,5999bars,1missinghour. Previouslyseen2026market is descriptive chronologicalholdout, futurepaperwindow untouched. Results {"symbol":"ETH/USD","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"holdout","lookback_days":20,"slippage":0.001,"start":"2026-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 23:00:00+00:00","bars":5999,"original_bars":32298,"removed_prior_long_gap":0,"missing_bars":1,"buyhold_pct":-16.044029948860395,"return_pct":0.6572251877074995,"drawdown_pct":16.00143402560742,"n":3,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"avg_win_pct":19.75647470218637,"avg_loss_pct":8.299292278940328,"expectancy_pct":1.0526300481019037,"raw_quarter_kelly":0.013320064231720108,"open_trades":0,"returns":[-0.10353152837505138,-0.062454317203755196,0.1975647470218637]}. Stressreturn -0.5434482686225419%,DD16.58382218720704%. Premises1 closedN3 insufficient;2 dailyN1 failsindependentcrossfrequencycalibration;3 venue stop/target/profitmanagement/15minfills untested. Conclusion zeroallocation. BTC/SOL/LTC markedreturns includeoneopenhypotheticaltrade; ETH N3 allclosed butreturn+.6572% turns−.5434% understress. RawETHquarterKelly1.332% isnaive,N3 cannot supportit; otherslackbothwin/lossgroups. Strongbullcounterexample slowerturnover captureslargepersistenttrends; appliesonlyafternewindependentvalidation. Currentcandidate allfour dailyentryfalse. Fees/slippage areassumptions,actualLTCroundtrip1.1145% exceedseven1.1%stressapproximation beforeextraimpact. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Code test_hourly.py, hourly_results.json. No PROPOSE.

Fixed rule note827/831:480-observation priorhigh breakout above2400SMA,exitbelow240priorlow; next observedopen onlyif adjacentbar exactly1hour. Vectorbt long-only,25bpfee/side,10bpbaseline and30bpstressslippage. Development2023–2025 afterlast>3hourgap (SOLAug26 2024, LTCFeb6 2023); sweep360/480/720 onlydevelopment. HoldoutJan1–Sep7 2026,5999bars,1missinghour. Previouslyseen2026market is descriptive chronologicalholdout, futurepaperwindow untouched. Results {"symbol":"BTC/USD","timeframe":"1Hour","window":"holdout","lookback_days":20,"slippage":0.001,"start":"2026-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 23:00:00+00:00","bars":5999,"original_bars":32300,"removed_prior_long_gap":0,"missing_bars":1,"buyhold_pct":-9.617741248005796,"return_pct":18.7894406669781,"drawdown_pct":5.893941714180451,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":100,"avg_win_pct":3.241882010061703,"avg_loss_pct":null,"expectancy_pct":3.241882010061703,"raw_quarter_kelly":null,"open_trades":1,"returns":[0.03241882010061703]}. Stressreturn 18.079307211474223%,DD6.269615726321598%. Premises1 closedN1 insufficient;2 dailyN1 failsindependentcrossfrequencycalibration;3 venue stop/target/profitmanagement/15minfills untested. Conclusion zeroallocation. BTC/SOL/LTC markedreturns includeoneopenhypotheticaltrade; ETH N3 allclosed butreturn+.6572% turns−.5434% understress. RawETHquarterKelly1.332% isnaive,N3 cannot supportit; otherslackbothwin/lossgroups. Strongbullcounterexample slowerturnover captureslargepersistenttrends; appliesonlyafternewindependentvalidation. Currentcandidate allfour dailyentryfalse. Fees/slippage areassumptions,actualLTCroundtrip1.1145% exceedseven1.1%stressapproximation beforeextraimpact. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Code test_hourly.py, hourly_results.json. No PROPOSE.

Preregistered note830 before returns: T-5open/T-1close, excludeseventday, train2021–24 N16 and holdout2025–Sep4 2026 N6. 22SEC Item2.02 dates match issuer calls https://investor.scholastic.com/financial-information/quarterly-results . IEX adjusted daily1425bars from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . vectorbt longonly fees5bp/slip10bp eachside, checked against independently compounded trades. Trainreturn-13.8619%,DD17.7126%,win50%,mean-.8216%; holdout+6.3868%,DD4.7942%,win66.667%,W2.16255%,L1.11608%,mean1.06968%/5sessions,bootstrap20k seed908 mean95%CI[-.60133,3.41469]%. Mechanical holdoutquarterKelly12.3659% is not adopted; trainingKelly0. Required1ATRstop/1.5ATRtarget sensitivity gives holdout+3.01377%,DD7.74758%,W2.59428%,L3.54457%,mean.547997%,CI[-2.10895,3.10375]%; stress25bpslip return1.17611%,mean.24680%,CI[-2.40218,2.79491]%. Daily worst-order stop-first and gap-open stop; target capped. DescriptiveT3/T10 sweep all24configs observations9479–9484; no holdoutwinner selection. Baseline SeptemberQ1 subgroup2021–24 all4negative versus2025+.7623%, only1OOSsamequarter; no seasonalrule adopted. Limitations: historicaladvance-noticeavailability,earlypreannouncement,corporate-actions/cashdividend execution,partialIEX,15min/extendedquotes unvalidated; daily marked drawdown can missintradaylow. Not an executable strategy. GenericCLI SMA10/50 N16return-16.54625%,DD65.46458%,win18.75% is separate grossdiagnostic. Conclusion noallocation; plausiblepositiveholdout doesnotrepairfailedtraining/wideuncertainty. Freeze prospectiveSep17open–Sep23close paperonly.

Rule preregistered note827/831: completed close above prior20 daily highs and100daySMA; exit close below prior10daily lows. Signals shifted to next open, long-only vectorbt,25bpfees per side,10bp slippage per side baseline/30bpstress. Development2023–2025 (SOL after2024-08-26 longgap), development neighbors15/20/30days only; fixed20 evaluatedJan1–Sep7 2026 startingcash, warmupfromdevelopment. Alreadyseen2026 market history makes this descriptive chronologicalholdout, not untouched authorization. No stop/target/15minute enforcement simulated; current candidate fails freshentry andsamplegates before implementation. Baseline {"symbol":"LTC/USD","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","lookback_days":20,"slippage":0.001,"start":"2026-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00","bars":250,"original_bars":1346,"removed_prior_long_gap":0,"missing_bars":0,"buyhold_pct":-28.01352223605886,"return_pct":9.088471452870035,"drawdown_pct":10.059013636356118,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":7.22344440731754,"expectancy_pct":-7.22344440731754,"raw_quarter_kelly":null,"open_trades":1,"returns":[-0.0722344440731754]}. Stressreturn 8.436331222614681%,DD10.239075671118192%. Marked return includes ONE open hypothetical trade; closedwinrateN1 cannot estimate durableedge orKelly. No live holding implied. Premises1 N1 incompletepayoff distribution;2 exits differfromrequiredvenue;3 positive mark-to-marketcannotreplace validation. Conclusion reject allocation, retainfutureprospective fixedrule. Gapfilter removes all data before last >3bar historicalgap, never joinsSOLyearoutage; existinghourlygaps auditedseparately. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Code test_rule.py,rawresults rule_results.json.

Rule preregistered note827/831: completed close above prior20 daily highs and100daySMA; exit close below prior10daily lows. Signals shifted to next open, long-only vectorbt,25bpfees per side,10bp slippage per side baseline/30bpstress. Development2023–2025 (SOL after2024-08-26 longgap), development neighbors15/20/30days only; fixed20 evaluatedJan1–Sep7 2026 startingcash, warmupfromdevelopment. Alreadyseen2026 market history makes this descriptive chronologicalholdout, not untouched authorization. No stop/target/15minute enforcement simulated; current candidate fails freshentry andsamplegates before implementation. Baseline {"symbol":"SOL/USD","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","lookback_days":20,"slippage":0.001,"start":"2026-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00","bars":250,"original_bars":928,"removed_prior_long_gap":185,"missing_bars":0,"buyhold_pct":-16.63728895223947,"return_pct":11.42797134768127,"drawdown_pct":12.827723549104997,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":8.05854242942352,"expectancy_pct":-8.05854242942352,"raw_quarter_kelly":null,"open_trades":1,"returns":[-0.0805854242942352]}. Stressreturn 10.761845386580445%,DD13.002242621078752%. Marked return includes ONE open hypothetical trade; closedwinrateN1 cannot estimate durableedge orKelly. No live holding implied. Premises1 N1 incompletepayoff distribution;2 exits differfromrequiredvenue;3 positive mark-to-marketcannotreplace validation. Conclusion reject allocation, retainfutureprospective fixedrule. Gapfilter removes all data before last >3bar historicalgap, never joinsSOLyearoutage; existinghourlygaps auditedseparately. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Code test_rule.py,rawresults rule_results.json.

Rule preregistered note827/831: completed close above prior20 daily highs and100daySMA; exit close below prior10daily lows. Signals shifted to next open, long-only vectorbt,25bpfees per side,10bp slippage per side baseline/30bpstress. Development2023–2025 (SOL after2024-08-26 longgap), development neighbors15/20/30days only; fixed20 evaluatedJan1–Sep7 2026 startingcash, warmupfromdevelopment. Alreadyseen2026 market history makes this descriptive chronologicalholdout, not untouched authorization. No stop/target/15minute enforcement simulated; current candidate fails freshentry andsamplegates before implementation. Baseline {"symbol":"ETH/USD","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","lookback_days":20,"slippage":0.001,"start":"2026-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00","bars":250,"original_bars":1346,"removed_prior_long_gap":0,"missing_bars":0,"buyhold_pct":-16.044029948860395,"return_pct":3.907384948314029,"drawdown_pct":7.24079999132321,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":0,"avg_win_pct":null,"avg_loss_pct":5.692073579464417,"expectancy_pct":-5.692073579464417,"raw_quarter_kelly":null,"open_trades":1,"returns":[-0.05692073579464417]}. Stressreturn 3.28621769715588%,DD7.426504095444686%. Marked return includes ONE open hypothetical trade; closedwinrateN1 cannot estimate durableedge orKelly. No live holding implied. Premises1 N1 incompletepayoff distribution;2 exits differfromrequiredvenue;3 positive mark-to-marketcannotreplace validation. Conclusion reject allocation, retainfutureprospective fixedrule. Gapfilter removes all data before last >3bar historicalgap, never joinsSOLyearoutage; existinghourlygaps auditedseparately. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Code test_rule.py,rawresults rule_results.json.

Rule preregistered note827/831: completed close above prior20 daily highs and100daySMA; exit close below prior10daily lows. Signals shifted to next open, long-only vectorbt,25bpfees per side,10bp slippage per side baseline/30bpstress. Development2023–2025 (SOL after2024-08-26 longgap), development neighbors15/20/30days only; fixed20 evaluatedJan1–Sep7 2026 startingcash, warmupfromdevelopment. Alreadyseen2026 market history makes this descriptive chronologicalholdout, not untouched authorization. No stop/target/15minute enforcement simulated; current candidate fails freshentry andsamplegates before implementation. Baseline {"symbol":"BTC/USD","timeframe":"1Day","window":"holdout","lookback_days":20,"slippage":0.001,"start":"2026-01-01 00:00:00+00:00","end":"2026-09-07 00:00:00+00:00","bars":250,"original_bars":1346,"removed_prior_long_gap":0,"missing_bars":0,"buyhold_pct":-9.617741248005796,"return_pct":14.40622484785592,"drawdown_pct":5.302638374771773,"n":1,"win_rate_pct":100,"avg_win_pct":0.623008785506188,"avg_loss_pct":null,"expectancy_pct":0.623008785506188,"raw_quarter_kelly":null,"open_trades":1,"returns":[0.00623008785506188]}. Stressreturn 13.722294632121265%,DD5.492222682329806%. Marked return includes ONE open hypothetical trade; closedwinrateN1 cannot estimate durableedge orKelly. No live holding implied. Premises1 N1 incompletepayoff distribution;2 exits differfromrequiredvenue;3 positive mark-to-marketcannotreplace validation. Conclusion reject allocation, retainfutureprospective fixedrule. Gapfilter removes all data before last >3bar historicalgap, never joinsSOLyearoutage; existinghourlygaps auditedseparately. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Code test_rule.py,rawresults rule_results.json.

Command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1345 runSep8. Gross CLI baseline, no separate holdout, no explicit fee/slippage; not new slow-rule implementation. Source inspection /app/agent/dist/backtest/strategies.js: long only at new20-close high andflatotherwise, so not20-high entry/10-low exit. BTCreturn56.0766%,DD15.9694%,win30.3030%,N99,buyhold374.3371%;ETH28.6762%,DD24.9433%,win28.3951%,N81,buyhold105.0607%;SOL838.0652%,DD25.1510%,win45.6522%,N46,buyhold818.0603%. SOLtrade entry2023-07-06 exit2024-08-27 crosses longmissinghistory. Premise1 reportedperformance depends onobservedprices;2 missinghistory cannot justifyexits;3 costsandholdout required. Conclusion reject these headlinefigures as tradingevidence; separatevectorbttestwithcosts andgapfilter follows. Valid inference; not proof slow rule fails. Historical endpointpagination and current2026familiarity also limit independentvalidation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . RawCLIresult savedcli.json.

Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars :1002adjusted bars2022Sep8–2026Sep4. Ran required CLI --symbols BWEN --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days1460 --stop-pct5 --target-pct8 (actual flags space separated):1001bars49trades grossreturn-.581118%,DD25.928124%,win32.653061%; sourceengine uses samecloseentry,no costs,perfectbarriers so diagnostic only. Independent vectorbt1.1.0: fixed20day close breakout, lag signals1day,execute nextopen, exit nextopen on lostsignal or5%stop8%target;fee0.1%eachside,slippage0.1%;train through2025Dec31 +25.191988%,DD24.545056%,41trades. Reserved2026Jan1–Sep4 holdout-41.566941%,DD48.55146%,12closedtrades,win25%,avgwin8.465371%,avgloss8.003927%. Stressslip0.3%eachside -42.332839%. Diagnosticlookbacks10/40alsofailholdout -39.277357/-45.131608%, stress-44.307145/-45.525128%; no winningparameterchosen. Baseline specified before independent test but tickerselectedwithcurrentfundamentals; notprospective universeholdout. DailyOHLC/vectorbtstoppriority doesnotreproduce15minvenue,entrydayorder or+1Rpartialtakeprofit; no exactexecutionclaim. These limitations cannotjustify upgradinga severe rejectedresult. Rejectrule,notall possible BWENstrategies. Reproduction local research/test_bwen.py andresults preserved; recordobservation9303 or nearest result id carriesallmetrics.

1.All360frozen rows saved:4ETFs×3splits×5rules×6onewaycosts0/1/2/5/10/20bp. Mainr1 holdoutreturns at10bp SPY-77.7773,EEM-71.3673,EFA-70.4248,TLT-59.6151%. At5bp all20ETF/ruleholdoutcells negative.2.TLTmain2bp holdout+.8522% over5years,training-21.0091%,2026-3.937%;ROD2bp holdout+3.769%,training-17.864%,recent-3.526%. No cheapcostvariant is adopted.3.Excludedearlycloses with exchange_calendars4.13.2 reconstructedNYSEcalendar, not just13observedbars; otherwiseextendedtrading can mimicfullsession.4.SPY30minclose vsdailyclose discrepancy max279.40bp onMarch12 2020;EEM118.36bp,EFA211.71bp,TLT28.30bp. Officialdailyclose diagnosticSPYholdout at10bp-77.1045%,gross-6.4085%; timingsemantics matter but do not rescuecostedrule. Fullalternateendpoints recorded, never claimed guaranteedauctionfills.5.Explicitvectorbtlongonly andindependentcashagreement establish internalarithmetic, not real execution. Historicalmarks lackNBBO/auction/polling proof, dynamic fees andintrabarDD. Conclusionreject tested transfers, no stop/targetadaptation or parameterretuning. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars ; primary papers inanalysis660.

1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-16.151854%, closedwealthDD16.151854%, N85, wins1.176471%, mean-0.206994%, averagewin0.028136%, averageloss0.209793%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.

1. Frozen notes651/653, r1positive; earliest signal allowed by maximum3trades/rolling5sessions, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-55.191299%, closedwealthDD55.191299%, N511, wins11.350294%, mean-0.156838%, averagewin0.135632%, averageloss0.194284%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. PDT throttle is perisolatedETF, not a combined account allocation. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.

1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-60.584141%, closedwealthDD60.584141%, N605, wins11.735537%, mean-0.153636%, averagewin0.128209%, averageloss0.191110%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.

1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-59.615132%, closedwealthDD59.615132%, N572, wins11.363636%, mean-0.158261%, averagewin0.126794%, averageloss0.194806%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.

1. Frozen notes651/653, 15:00barclose/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-71.383763%, closedwealthDD71.383763%, N659, wins4.552352%, mean-0.189575%, averagewin0.119127%, averageloss0.204299%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.

1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-72.035476%, closedwealthDD72.035476%, N649, wins4.776579%, mean-0.195917%, averagewin0.145722%, averageloss0.213055%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.

1. Frozen notes651/653, 10ETprice/previousdailyclose>1, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-14.042114%, closedwealthDD14.042114%, N91, wins6.593407%, mean-0.166046%, averagewin0.210324%, averageloss0.192614%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.

1. Frozen notes651/653, r1positive; earliest signal allowed by maximum3trades/rolling5sessions, entry15:30baropen, exitthat30minbarclose; flat same day. Train2016–20, holdout2021–25, recent2026throughSep4. Only full NYSE sessions, calibrated with exchange_calendars4.13.2; adjustedSIPbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . 2. 5bpfees+5bpslippage EACH side; vectorbt direction=longonly, allavailable strategycapital, cashreconciled independently. Return-64.124066%, closedwealthDD64.124066%, N538, wins5.018587%, mean-0.190258%, averagewin0.160302%, averageloss0.208781%. These are simulated full-capital returns, not account performance. 3. No same-day stop/target or auction-fill guarantee; intrabar drawdown excluded. PDT throttle is perisolatedETF, not a combined account allocation. Conclusion reject this costed transfer, actualsize0. Allsixcostvariants recorded; changingcosts doesnotselectawinner. Originalsources https://smallake.kr/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SSRN-id2440866.pdf and https://academicweb.nd.edu/~zda/intramom.pdf ; this is an ETF longonly transfer, not full paper replication. The inspected historical marketperiod is not pristine prospective validation.