Runway

Stats

1524 backtests, newest first
CNXC91106 T-3 1ADR stop/3ADR target train, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Frozen prior20ADR; stop E-ADR, target E+3ADR, adverse open on gap stop, stop first on both touched, entry-day exits included. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-1.9
drawdown6.96
win rate46.67
sample15
mean_pct-0.08
avgwin_pct2.8
avgloss_pct2.6
targets1
worst_pct-4.65
mean_excess_pp-0.64
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 T-3 time exit holdout, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return11.74
drawdown9.17
win rate71.43
sample7
mean_pct1.71
avgwin_pct4.05
avgloss_pct4.15
targets0
worst_pct-6.13
mean_excess_pp1.1
ambiguous0
VM9110600 SPY adapter train slip15 scale2
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2019-01-02 to 2022-12-30; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open entry capped inverse prior-month variance;2ATR stop/6ATR target,+4ATR quarter sale and BE nextday,month-end forcedexit. Fee1bp/slippage15bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error3.637978807091713e-12 on10000initialunits. Sensitivity diagnostic only, never promoted. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return5.924249409058424%,DD22.950594911252875%,positionwinrate45.83333333333333%,N48;48months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return5.92
drawdown22.95
win rate45.83
sample48
months48
CAGR pct1.45
Sharpe zero cash0.19
mean trade pct0.62
positive months pct45.83
slippage bp15
scale2
equity reconcile error0
CNXC91106 T-3 time exit train, 50bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage45bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-6.75
drawdown9
win rate33.33
sample15
mean_pct-0.4
avgwin_pct3.78
avgloss_pct2.5
targets0
worst_pct-5.03
mean_excess_pp-0.96
ambiguous0
VM9110600 SPY adapter test slip15 scale0.5
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2023-01-03 to 2026-08-31; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open entry capped inverse prior-month variance;2ATR stop/6ATR target,+4ATR quarter sale and BE nextday,month-end forcedexit. Fee1bp/slippage15bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error3.637978807091713e-12 on10000initialunits. Sensitivity diagnostic only, never promoted. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return21.320688824255885%,DD8.009887245858593%,positionwinrate52.27272727272727%,N44;44months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return21.32
drawdown8.01
win rate52.27
sample44
months44
CAGR pct5.45
Sharpe zero cash0.94
mean trade pct0.85
positive months pct52.27
slippage bp15
scale0.5
equity reconcile error0
CNXC91106 T-3 time exit holdout, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return14.91
drawdown8.8
win rate71.43
sample7
mean_pct2.12
avgwin_pct4.47
avgloss_pct3.77
targets0
worst_pct-5.76
mean_excess_pp1.51
ambiguous0
VM9110600 SPY adapter train slip15 scale0.5
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2019-01-02 to 2022-12-30; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open entry capped inverse prior-month variance;2ATR stop/6ATR target,+4ATR quarter sale and BE nextday,month-end forcedexit. Fee1bp/slippage15bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error3.637978807091713e-12 on10000initialunits. Sensitivity diagnostic only, never promoted. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return-4.314729648196081%,DD9.48234794366084%,positionwinrate45.83333333333333%,N48;48months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return-4.31
drawdown9.48
win rate45.83
sample48
months48
CAGR pct-1.1
Sharpe zero cash-0.2
mean trade pct0.62
positive months pct45.83
slippage bp15
scale0.5
equity reconcile error0
CNXC91106 T-3 time exit train, 30bp/side
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
Premises: 1. Freeze2229: issuer advance dates, enter T-3 open, exit T-1 close, exclude event session for AMC and BMO. Announcements must predate entry date; same-day unknown release time conservatively excluded. 2. SIP adjustment=all 1451CNXC/1470SPY daily bars through2026-09-10, train2021-24, chronological holdout2025-Jun2026. Fixed calendar time exit, no stop; research control only, not eligible live policy. 3. vectorbt from_orders direction=longonly, fees5bp/slippage25bp eachside; compounded returns and tradecounts reconciled manually; initial cash included in mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows/day are bookkeeping, not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment proxy; adjusted prices not raw executable stops. Mean_excess_pp is difference against full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, NOT exposure-matched alpha. Sweep3/5/10 frozen; primaryT5 fixed, all variants reported without picking test winner. Conclusion no adoption: all training variants negative compounded return; T3positiveholdout cannot rescue failedtrain. Sources issuerURLs individually in observations24553–24575; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Limitations selected company, retrospective calendar recovery,2023Webhelp overlap,22events, possible early news, costs assumed,15min and +2R policy separate.
return-0.98
drawdown7.12
win rate46.67
sample15
mean_pct0
avgwin_pct3.07
avgloss_pct2.7
targets0
worst_pct-4.65
mean_excess_pp-0.56
ambiguous0
VM9110600 SPY adapter test slip15 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2023-01-03 to 2026-08-31; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open entry capped inverse prior-month variance;2ATR stop/6ATR target,+4ATR quarter sale and BE nextday,month-end forcedexit. Fee1bp/slippage15bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error1.8189894035458565e-12 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return32.37547049640659%,DD12.332724641789806%,positionwinrate52.27272727272727%,N44;44months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return32.38
drawdown12.33
win rate52.27
sample44
months44
CAGR pct8
Sharpe zero cash0.94
mean trade pct0.85
positive months pct52.27
slippage bp15
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY adapter train slip15 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2019-01-02 to 2022-12-30; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open entry capped inverse prior-month variance;2ATR stop/6ATR target,+4ATR quarter sale and BE nextday,month-end forcedexit. Fee1bp/slippage15bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error3.637978807091713e-12 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return5.557496938788775%,DD14.661439139633735%,positionwinrate45.83333333333333%,N48;48months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return5.56
drawdown14.66
win rate45.83
sample48
months48
CAGR pct1.36
Sharpe zero cash0.23
mean trade pct0.62
positive months pct45.83
slippage bp15
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY adapter test slip5 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2023-01-03 to 2026-08-31; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open entry capped inverse prior-month variance;2ATR stop/6ATR target,+4ATR quarter sale and BE nextday,month-end forcedexit. Fee1bp/slippage5bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error3.637978807091713e-12 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return41.55842346111642%,DD11.77731698964799%,positionwinrate56.81818181818182%,N44;44months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return41.56
drawdown11.78
win rate56.82
sample44
months44
CAGR pct10.01
Sharpe zero cash1.17
mean trade pct1.03
positive months pct56.82
slippage bp5
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY adapter train slip5 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2019-01-02 to 2022-12-30; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open entry capped inverse prior-month variance;2ATR stop/6ATR target,+4ATR quarter sale and BE nextday,month-end forcedexit. Fee1bp/slippage5bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error3.637978807091713e-12 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return9.570767569656734%,DD14.341134246722786%,positionwinrate47.91666666666667%,N48;48months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return9.57
drawdown14.34
win rate47.92
sample48
months48
CAGR pct2.31
Sharpe zero cash0.36
mean trade pct0.75
positive months pct47.92
slippage bp5
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY constant test slip15 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2023-01-03 to 2026-08-31; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open rebalance; constant calibration exposure. One continuous position; win rate refers to completed position, positive-month rate separately reported. Fee1bp/slippage15bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error0 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return89.00366944108846%,DD16.350101274970875%,positionwinrate100%,N1;44months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return89
drawdown16.35
win rate100
sample1
months44
CAGR pct19.1
Sharpe zero cash1.41
mean trade pct97.26
positive months pct70.45
slippage bp15
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY constant train slip15 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2019-01-02 to 2022-12-30; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open rebalance; constant calibration exposure. One continuous position; win rate refers to completed position, positive-month rate separately reported. Fee1bp/slippage15bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error0 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return56.23209209932698%,DD29.601520994397802%,positionwinrate100%,N1;48months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return56.23
drawdown29.6
win rate100
sample1
months48
CAGR pct11.8
Sharpe zero cash0.68
mean trade pct55.73
positive months pct64.58
slippage bp15
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY constant test slip5 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2023-01-03 to 2026-08-31; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open rebalance; constant calibration exposure. One continuous position; win rate refers to completed position, positive-month rate separately reported. Fee1bp/slippage5bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error0 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return89.3532126904073%,DD16.349326779525718%,positionwinrate100%,N1;44months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return89.35
drawdown16.35
win rate100
sample1
months44
CAGR pct19.16
Sharpe zero cash1.42
mean trade pct97.72
positive months pct70.45
slippage bp5
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY constant train slip5 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2019-01-02 to 2022-12-30; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open rebalance; constant calibration exposure. One continuous position; win rate refers to completed position, positive-month rate separately reported. Fee1bp/slippage5bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error0 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return56.53225516650684%,DD29.60064334306942%,positionwinrate100%,N1;48months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return56.53
drawdown29.6
win rate100
sample1
months48
CAGR pct11.85
Sharpe zero cash0.69
mean trade pct56.07
positive months pct64.58
slippage bp5
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY monthly test slip15 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2023-01-03 to 2026-08-31; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open rebalance; capped inverse prior-month variance. One continuous position; win rate refers to completed position, positive-month rate separately reported. Fee1bp/slippage15bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error1.8189894035458565e-12 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return72.72013860069322%,DD12.649097110245854%,positionwinrate100%,N1;44months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return72.72
drawdown12.65
win rate100
sample1
months44
CAGR pct16.19
Sharpe zero cash1.34
mean trade pct13.13
positive months pct65.91
slippage bp15
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY monthly train slip15 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2019-01-02 to 2022-12-30; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open rebalance; capped inverse prior-month variance. One continuous position; win rate refers to completed position, positive-month rate separately reported. Fee1bp/slippage15bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error1.8189894035458565e-12 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return30.71958467425531%,DD18.121256375906757%,positionwinrate100%,N1;48months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return30.72
drawdown18.12
win rate100
sample1
months48
CAGR pct6.93
Sharpe zero cash0.65
mean trade pct6.13
positive months pct62.5
slippage bp15
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY monthly test slip5 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2023-01-03 to 2026-08-31; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open rebalance; capped inverse prior-month variance. One continuous position; win rate refers to completed position, positive-month rate separately reported. Fee1bp/slippage5bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error0 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return74.12482249585115%,DD12.58504847502655%,positionwinrate100%,N1;44months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return74.12
drawdown12.59
win rate100
sample1
months44
CAGR pct16.44
Sharpe zero cash1.36
mean trade pct13.33
positive months pct65.91
slippage bp5
scale1
equity reconcile error0
VM9110600 SPY monthly train slip5 scale1
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-11 06:10
Fixed protocol2230, corrections2233/2236. 2019-01-02 to 2022-12-30; calibration2016-18 only. Monthly first-open rebalance; capped inverse prior-month variance. One continuous position; win rate refers to completed position, positive-month rate separately reported. Fee1bp/slippage5bp eachside; cash0yield/no borrowing. Everydaily equity reconciles vectorbt,error1.8189894035458565e-12 on10000initialunits. Whole-share/15minexit execution unvalidated; adjusteddividendproxy and currentETFsurvivorship limitations. Chronologicalholdout notgloballyuntouched. Return31.903672590404184%,DD18.05788474595298%,positionwinrate100%,N1;48months. Figures do not establishincrementalselection or authorize order. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/test_vm.py/results.json.
return31.9
drawdown18.06
win rate100
sample1
months48
CAGR pct7.17
Sharpe zero cash0.67
mean trade pct6.34
positive months pct62.5
slippage bp5
scale1
equity reconcile error0
BB entry-time regime filters fail costed earnings run-up training
BacktestsrejectConvex eventsBB2026-09-11 06:08
Frozen edge: BB Sep10 S7.54; Oct2C8 close.40 requires +11.405836%, covers3/12 (25%); Oct2P7 close.32 requires -11.405836%, covers2/12 (16.67%). Twelve consecutive issuer-dated earnings Sep2023-Jun2026, pre-newsclose to firstpostclose, medianabsolute9.987505%; first8train,last4holdout. Neither current40% gate nor documented3xexpectedpayout passes. Issuer Sep10 says 'Thursday, September 24, 2026, at 8:00 a.m. ET.': https://www.accessnewswire.com/newsroom/en/computers-technology-and-internet/blackberry-to-announce-fiscal-second-quarter-2027-results-on-sept-1216954 . Oct2expiry8dayslater; defaultSep23RTHexit, hurdle exceedsmedian1.418331pp. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts Sep10 closes; historical issuer quotes/sources observations24113–24126 and24585–24596. 1. Vectorbt1.1.0 longstockdiagnostic, initial100cash, buyT-5open/sellT-1close relativetoissuerreleasedate, fees5bp/side,slip10bpbase/30bpstress. EntryfiltersuseT-6close, neverfuturepre-newsindicators. Compareall,below20&50,RSI<40,RV20<RV60,andallthree. First8/last4chronological; no choosinga rulefromholdout. ModelnotoptionPnL anddoesnotvalidate15minoptionexits. 2. Allunfilteredtrain-2.73664%,maxDD19.33542%,win50%,N8; holdout+2.23248%,DD9.40210%,win50%,N4; stressholdout+.609767%. Trendfilteredtrain-12.90675%N3;RSI-3.73750%N1;RV-12.73960%N5;allthree-3.73750%N1. JointfilterholdoutN0 (return0meansnoactivity, notsuccessfulvalidation). Everytrainingfilternegative. 3. CLI diagnostic node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BB --strategy rsi --days1000 (actual --days 1000) gives684bars,N28,+52.05456%,DD25.64570%,win64.28571%,buyhold82.40964%; unsplitall-sessionstockindicatorreturndoesnotoverrideeventtest. 4. Validity: failedtrainingcannotjustifyadoptionfrompositiveholdout. Soundnesslimits: only12events, businesschanges/preannouncement, previouslyexaminedholdout, stockproxycostsassumed. Retainrejectionandawaitprospectiveactualoptionoutcomes.
return2.23
drawdown9.4
win rate50
sample4
train_return-2.74
train_drawdown19.34
train_sample8
stress_holdout_return0.61
joint_train_return-3.74
joint_train_sample1
joint_holdout_sample0
C91106 CLI baseline is gross diagnostic, not executable edge
BacktestsinconclusiveCrypto majorsBTC/USD, ETH/USD, SOL/USD2026-09-11 06:05
Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days730 at Sep11~06:02UTC. 731dailybars each, through current request (no explicit completed-day cutoff). BTC return25.66649%,DD13.53672%,win32.6531%,N49,BH34.63505%;ETH28.90543%,DD24.94326%,win21.62162%,N37,BH5.45225%;SOL80.47402%,DD18.79539%,win53.125%,N32,BH-24.66375%. Premise1 CLI engine enters at signal close, has no fees/slippage or explicit holdout and idealizes stop levels. Premise2 frozen production watch is hourlyHIGH/LOW with costed3R/trail; this close-based CLI differs. Conclusion no order based on these gross outputs; requiredCLI diagnostic satisfied, separate chronological vectorbt costed daily/hourly study running. Valid arithmetic within engine, unsound as real execution forecast. Primary data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; fees https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .
return28.91
drawdown24.94
win rate21.62
sample37
BTC_return25.67
SOL_return80.47
bars_per_symbol731
fees_in_CLI0
actual_allocation0
R91104 KALU required CLI diagnostic; not a holdout or venue-execution test
BacktestsinconclusiveSupply chainKALU2026-09-11 04:15
Command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CSTM,KALU --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 1500 --stop-pct 8 --target-pct 24. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex . CLI uses its own signal exit and full history, so its numbers cannot replace frozen SIP 2ADR/6ADR/20session tests2521–2522. No independent holdout or live15minute management in this output. Rerun once solely to preserve full JSON after display truncation; same result, not a new independent sample. Conclusion: diagnostic recorded, no trading inference.
return21.38
drawdown18.45
win rate41.25
sample80
bars1030
buyhold_return118
R91104 CSTM required CLI diagnostic; not a holdout or venue-execution test
BacktestsinconclusiveSupply chainCSTM2026-09-11 04:15
Command node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CSTM,KALU --strategy breakout --lookback 20 --days 1500 --stop-pct 8 --target-pct 24. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex . CLI uses its own signal exit and full history, so its numbers cannot replace frozen SIP 2ADR/6ADR/20session tests2521–2522. No independent holdout or live15minute management in this output. Rerun once solely to preserve full JSON after display truncation; same result, not a new independent sample. Conclusion: diagnostic recorded, no trading inference.
return-10.57
drawdown26.76
win rate39.73
sample73
bars1030
buyhold_return76.01
C91104 SOL timeframe and coverage attribution, frozen costed controls
BacktestsrejectCrypto majorsSOL/USD2026-09-11 04:12
Premise1 frozen20dayHIGH/10dayLOW,2ATR14 risk,net3Rtarget accounting25bpcreditedassetfees/10bpslip,20daytimeout; signal known after completed bar,next exact open; +2RcostBE and peak-2entryATRtrail,retainedtarget. 20bpslipstress leaves targetfixed. Nativecalendar-hourly uses20completed UTCdays, rolling-hourly prior480hours. Premise2 chronological2024-25train/REUSED2026Jan1-Sep11 00UTCholdout,resetflat; hourly/daily open sampled exits, no guarantee of stopprice; rawwealth reconcilesvectorbt1e-10. Fullnativecalendar-hourly train 21.988671% N12; holdout-10.135134% DD35.033237% win28.571429% N7; same-targetstress-11.384479%. Premise3 attribution ladder fullnative daily/daily-8.216357%,daily/hourly-27.081318%,calendar/hourly-10.135134%; matched-full24h daily/daily7.041002%,rolling480/hourly1.172455%. Matching drops March12 incompletehourday and suppresseslaterentries, a selectioneffect not pricealpha. Native vs aggregate matched2026returns coincide; source construction not explanation for that ladder. Positive matched variants cannot replace previously frozen rejected policy; no switching based on this reused sample. Conclusion watch only; current20dayentryabsent. Validity: controlled changes attribute differences within implementation; soundness: tinyreusedsamples, historicalbar anomalies and sampledquotes limit predictive/executionconfidence. 80cells perasset (168matched+72fullnative total240), not80independenttrials. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; methodnotes2175/2180.
return-10.14
drawdown35.03
win rate28.57
sample7
train_return21.99
stress_return-11.38
daily_return-8.22
daily_hourly_return-27.08
matched_daily_return7.04
rolling_hourly_return1.17
mean-1
allocation0
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