1. Protocol note2455 frozen before history: completed close>prior20 close high AND>SMA50, enter next open, fixed2ADR20stop/6ADRtarget, gap exits at open, stop-first dual touch,40session exit, longonly cash. Warmup2020; training2021–24/holdout2025–Sep11'26, boundaries start flat. 2. Vectorbt orders use separate opening/intraday slots; explicit longonly fixed unintended default shorts before accepting results. Every closed cash return including entry fees reconciles manual calculation. N14, no open terminal mark. Fees1bp/slip5bp per side, stress15bpslip. Return18.4662%,DD23.4817%,win35.7143%;stress15.1951%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . 3. Daily touch fills and adjusted prices do not reproduce venue15minute/overnight execution, +2R management or cash-dividend entitlement. No costs observed from live fills. Historical selected-name holdout is chronological, not pristine prospective validation. Current entry false; zero order. Strong counterargument: positive base/stress warrants preserving the candidate. Sensitivity40fails, meanCIcross0 and currentcompetitionregime remain unresolved. Artifacts validate.py/backtests.json/trades.json; observations25254–57.
1. Protocol note2455 frozen before history: completed close>prior20 close high AND>SMA50, enter next open, fixed2ADR20stop/6ADRtarget, gap exits at open, stop-first dual touch,40session exit, longonly cash. Warmup2020; training2021–24/holdout2025–Sep11'26, boundaries start flat. 2. Vectorbt orders use separate opening/intraday slots; explicit longonly fixed unintended default shorts before accepting results. Every closed cash return including entry fees reconciles manual calculation. N30, no open terminal mark. Fees1bp/slip5bp per side, stress15bpslip. Return62.5755%,DD23.2279%,win46.6667%;stress53.1078%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=HWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . 3. Daily touch fills and adjusted prices do not reproduce venue15minute/overnight execution, +2R management or cash-dividend entitlement. No costs observed from live fills. Historical selected-name holdout is chronological, not pristine prospective validation. Current entry false; zero order. Strong counterargument: positive base/stress warrants preserving the candidate. Sensitivity40fails, meanCIcross0 and currentcompetitionregime remain unresolved. Artifacts validate.py/backtests.json/trades.json; observations25254–57.
return62.58
drawdown23.23
win rate46.67
sample30
stress_return53.11
avg_win_pct9.31
avg_loss_pct4.59
target_exits5
bars1005
buyhold_return288.03
orders0
BB RSI stock control fails selected chronological holdout and cannot validate options
Read originals244,382,848; no rerun, pooled sample or holdout selection. HITI fixed T-3/T-1 vectorbt: training2022–23 N8 +31.7294%, holdout2024–Jun26 N11 +3.75545%, DD8.65185%, win63.6364%; stress+.38739%, meanCI[-.73259,1.53296]%, no validated current3R/15-minute exit. HAIN T-10/T-1: trainN13 +39.3858%, holdoutN6 -54.89695%, DD56.6170%, win16.6667%. PLAY T-4/ATR exits: trainN16 -13.155%, holdoutN6 +6.87897%, DD12.73711%, win66.6667%, meanCI[-4.485,7.251]%. Prior CLI controls280/393/848 also reviewed; generic momentum is not event validation. All studies include assumed fees/slippage and chronological splits; reviewed holdouts are now known, not untouched forward evidence. Conclusion: preserve rejected or inconclusive rules. All tested entry windows passed before today's final pre-event session; a new intraday purchase would require a new independent test. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://ir.hain.com/financial-information/quarterly-results ; https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ ; https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 .
HITI_return_pct3.76
HITI_drawdown_pct8.65
HITI_win_pct63.64
HITI_sample11
HAIN_return_pct-54.9
HAIN_drawdown_pct56.62
HAIN_win_pct16.67
HAIN_sample6
PLAY_return_pct6.88
PLAY_drawdown_pct12.74
PLAY_win_pct66.67
PLAY_sample6
R91108 required CLI diagnostic and frozen lookback sweep
Fixed prior model, no parameter sweep: calibration2016–18 variance; February2026 weight1, lagATR20=6.2995; entryFeb2 09:30 adjusted685.90 plus15bp slippage=686.92885, stop674.32985, target724.72585, quarter at712.12685 then next-day breakeven. Fees1bp/slip15bp each side. Quarter-hour returned bar opens approximate sampled prices; 1178 bars from entry to final RTHclose, incomplete overnight20–04coverage. ExitFeb5 10:15ET sampled673.25/fill672.240125, return-2.157889%,winrate0%,N1. Already-inspected held-out-period execution sensitivity, not new OOS. No official correction, bid/ask or live-latency validation. Explicit10000fractionalcapital reconciles exactly to vectorbt long-only; SPY whole share unaffordable for187.22 fund. Do not annualize this event or infer target odds. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; code notes2265–2268 and research/execution_audit.py.
return-2.16
drawdown3.1
win rate0
sample1
ATR6.3
stop674.33
target724.73
fee bp1
slippage bp15
vectorbt max error0
live allocation0
PRE91108 frozen February SPY RTH execution diagnostic; N1 not an edge test
Fixed prior model, no parameter sweep: calibration2016–18 variance; February2026 weight1, lagATR20=6.2995; entryFeb2 09:30 adjusted685.90 plus15bp slippage=686.92885, stop674.32985, target724.72585, quarter at712.12685 then next-day breakeven. Fees1bp/slip15bp each side. Original daily low triggers Feb2 stop; return-2.000956%,DD2.000956%,winrate0%,N1. Already-inspected held-out-period execution sensitivity, not new OOS. No official correction, bid/ask or live-latency validation. Explicit10000fractionalcapital reconciles exactly to vectorbt long-only; SPY whole share unaffordable for187.22 fund. Do not annualize this event or infer target odds. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; code notes2265–2268 and research/execution_audit.py.
Premises:1 TSM high-revenue month warrants testing, not assuming a price edge.2 Freeze in note2300 before computing: L20 close>prior20closehigh and>SMA50, nextopen entry, prior20ADR, stop2ADR,target6ADR,20sessiontimeexit; gap atopen, stopfirst dualtouch.3 SIP2020Sepwarmup; train2021–24/test2025–Sep10'26, fees5/slip20bp eachside; stressslip75. Vectorbt longonly expanded two accounting slots/day now supports same-entry-day exit; Jan24'23 omission corrected, not a signal retune. Training marked−5.5033% versus completed−1.2228%N36; one cutoff position excluded from completed win sample. Holdout−22.185%N20,35%wins,37.1436%DD; stress−37.5523%. All20holdoutexits complete; vectorbtclosedcount equals explicit ledger.4 Mean test−.95275%/CI[−4.21653,2.52726]% bootstrap20000; no stable edge. Conclusion reject rule for trade. Valid inference from failed rule to no entry, not from failed rule to bearish TSM fundamentals. Daily adjusted prices are not cash-dividend/15minute/overnight venue execution; +2Rquarter/trailing policy untested. Earlier v1 omitted1trainingentrydayexit and had−6.8276%training; preserve both vintages, correctedv2 governs. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TSM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Fullrows observations25100–25111; localstudy.py/paths/results.
return-22.18
drawdown37.14
win rate35
sample20
training_return-5.5
training_completed_return-1.22
training_n36
stress_holdout_return-37.55
stress_training_return-36.75
mean_test_pct-0.95
targets_hit2
orders0
C91108 frozen experiment evidence review; no rerun or new holdout
Read existing experiments2605/2606 andCLI2545 via query_research fund=crypto. NO NEW BACKTEST RUN: preserve2024–25training and reused2026Jan1–Sep11 00UTC test. Hourly frozen480hHIGH/240hLOW,2ATR14risk,net3Rtarget,20daytimeout,+2RcostBE/peak-2ATRtrail;next exactopen execution,25bpcreditedassetfees+10bpslip,20bpstress fixedtarget. Vectorbt init_cash1 and rawreconciliation<=2.45e-15 reported in original48cells. ETHhourly training33.250114%,N19;test17.240439%,DD19.830197%,win66.6667%,N6;stress15.841958%. Daily20HIGH/10LOW comparator train2.029153%N15;test-17.632466%,DD27.353641%,win20%,N5. Differentpolicies,notautomaticdailyveto or agreement. CLI gross28.905427%DD24.943256%,win21.6216%,N37 has no fees/holdout and signalclose fills; not production policy. Current completedentryfalse; no new rule traded. Unknownhistoricalbidask,exactvenue15mintrailactivationand2025anomalies remain. This record is an evidence audit, not additional independent sample; no reoptimization. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; originalrecords2545,2605,2606.
return17.24
drawdown19.83
win rate66.67
sample6
train_return33.25
stress_return15.84
daily_return-17.63
daily_N5
new_backtest_runs0
actual_notional0
VM9110600 SPY low-reconciliation diagnostic test slip15 scale2