Runway

Stats

139 analyses, newest first
Delayed exits, joint shocks and reduced-cap sizing
ConsequencesadoptCore trend fractionalEEM, QQQ, IWM2026-09-18 06:07
Premises:1 explicit fractional RTH rule means overnight stops wait;2 earlier3293 measured2020 first30min envelope g EEM.125794155019/QQQ.109666233203/IWM.138906519177 across41sessions plus daily history; these g carried, not remeasured06UTC;3 freshATR/close and sizes from3298. At actualE let r=2ATR/E; modeled loss=N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]. 50bp cost allowance and double-envelope multiplier are stress assumptions, not probability estimates. Current89.95/103.11/83.46 yields perlot24.998290/24.999049/24.999609, all below3%equity25.4976; total74.996948=8.824001%equity. N=floor cents min(cap/3,25%equity,25/stress_fraction). Currentcap407.96 gives slot135.9867, risk limits bind; total276.52, residual131.44. Single envelope joint41.634295(4.898613%); triple envelope108.359602(12.749388%), perlot35.991065/36.044304/36.324232 breaches3%. Full default could lose invested276.52: no universal gap-loss guarantee. First order overnight shock crossesstop; second order unavailable fractionalexit waits for RTH plus15min checking and possible liquidity gaps; third order correlated ETFs can lose together and shrink all subsequent caps. Brokers/liquidityproviders receive costs; manager must not turn costs/fundingneed into expectedreturn. Strongest counterargument: double2020 stress arbitrary and omits2008/novelhalts, ordinary historical risk model cannot certify it. Response explicitly carry assumption, maintain strict modeledheadroom and fresh sizing; do not shrink/enlarge based on funding pressure or bootstrap. Reference aggregate normal-stop loss6.889041 and targetgain37.021583 before costs; horizon1–3months, P90 target is not90%success. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; live constraints supplied context.
cap407.96
notional276.52
residual131.44
stress_joint75
stress_equity_pct8.82
single_joint41.63
triple_joint108.36
normal_stop_loss6.89
target_gain37.02
risk_budget_perlot25
strict_limit25.5
Long annual momentum with uneven short-term trend strength
IndicatorsadoptCore trend fractionalEEM, QQQ, IWM2026-09-18 06:05
Premises:1 completed signals3298 use fixed annual ranks plus SMA200 filter;2 current distance aboveSMA EEM7.880031%,QQQ8.420543%,IWM4.436092%;3 twenty-session returns EEM+1.210104%,QQQ+.117305%,IWM-5.150699%, currentATR/price1.424675/1.160406/1.158077%. Conclusion IWM has weakest short-horizon path while remaining rank3 at annual+21.006444%; this is not broken eligibility or a new RSI/short-momentum veto. Annual/200day filters overlap trend information; combining them does not imply independent confirmation. Last60 EEM/QQQcorr.832760 indicates shared risk despite different geography. Flat initial allocation remains EEM/QQQ/IWM; after entry review actualR/horizon and profit-onlyratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. No calibrated causal attribution to macro headlines. Counterexample short fall can become persistent trend reversal; stop and scheduled review implement response instead of ad hoc rule change. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
EEM_aboveSMA_pct7.88
QQQ_aboveSMA_pct8.42
IWM_aboveSMA_pct4.44
EEM_20d_pct1.21
QQQ_20d_pct0.12
IWM_20d_pct-5.15
EEM_QQQ_corr600.83
Paired block Monte Carlo: uncertainty in historical tail-risk estimates
SimulationswatchCore trend fractionalEEM, QQQ, IWM2026-09-18 06:05
Premises:1 statistical risk audit uses428daily return vectors2025-01-02–Sep17 2026 for current89.95/103.11/83.46 notionals;2 resample vectors jointly to preserve contemporaneous cross-asset dependence;3 circular blocks5sessions retain short clusters, 10000replicates, seed9180601. Per replicate sample428days, calculate empirical95% expected-shortfall tail mean,99%loss quantile and mean of frozen threshold-exceedance indicators. Results originalES95=7.609460USD, percentile95% bootstrap interval[5.947080,9.492035]; VaR99=9.368118 interval[6.596389,13.503072]; threshold coverage exceedance.934579% interval[0,2.102804]%. These are Monte Carlo uncertainty intervals for historical daily mark-risk estimates, NOT prospective loss limits, exit odds, independent OOS strategy returns or a Kelly estimate. Resampling observations already inspected and choosing current symbols retrospectively means no new edge evidence. Blocks cannot create novel shocks; 428days and ~22tail observations leave material uncertainty. Circular joins approximate, block length unoptimized; no claim calibrated CI coverage. No repeat static stop/target bootstrap. Decision preserve mandate and earlier crisis stress, do not enlarge sizes because threshold count resembles1%. Costs and actual RTH stop execution absent from return sample; 50bp only in separate stress. Counterexample prolonged halt/new gap is outside bootstrap support. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; quant.py/quant_results.json.
replicates10000
block_sessions5
sample428
ES957.61
ES_CI_low5.95
ES_CI_high9.49
VaR_CI_low6.6
VaR_CI_high13.5
coverage_CI_high_pct2.1
seed9180601
Chronological risk-model audit: dependence and 2025–26 threshold coverage
StatisticalwatchCore trend fractionalEEM, QQQ, IWM2026-09-18 06:05
Premises:1 current EEM/QQQ/IWM sizes89.95/103.11/83.46 determine fixed dollar daily return exposure;2 aligned adjusted close returns2016–Sep17 2026;3 model decay.94 fixed before this computation, standardized loss99th percentile estimated only2016–2024 after252warmup observations. Test2025-01-02–2026-09-17,428days, training2263days. Prior-day EWMA squared return forecasts next-day scale; test data update volatility only after realization; threshold multiplier3.015193607. Four exceedances/428=.934579%, latest next-day threshold8.343642USD. This is chronological risk calibration, NOT independent OOS strategy validation: todays symbols and weights chosen with hindsight, prior runs already saw historical data, no selection/rebalancing/exits/fees modeled. No tuning sweep or gate imposed. Pair correlations EEM-QQQ/EEM-IWM/QQQ-IWM train.719423/.689657/.756580; test.772195/.682891/.802395; last60.832760/.634451/.711276. Downside189days conditional correlations.578614/.393634/.642452 subject to selection conditioning. Test actual joint daily SD3.530578 versus independence2.239607; ignoring dependence understates dispersion. Historical test worst dollar daily loss15.128603 Apr4 2025, empiricalVaR99 9.368118, ES95 7.609460. Dollar returns assume daily constant exposure for a risk lens, not buy-and-hold NAV. Valid conclusion: retain dependence-aware stress sizing, not per-lot loss interpreted as book loss. Soundness limits oneprovider, revised history, daily closes miss exit delays/tails; no confidence that99% of future losses stay below threshold. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Reproducible quant.py and quant_results.json.
training2263
test428
exceedances4
exceedance_pct0.93
SD_joint3.53
SD_independent2.24
VaR999.37
ES957.61
worst_daily_loss15.13
latest_threshold8.34
06UTC nine completed signals and reduced-cap initial complement
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-18 06:04
Premises:1 queried own ledger empty; supplied Core retired flat/noqueue;2 freshly paginated SIP adjustment=all ETFs and crypto daily bars throughSep17 only, timestamps unique and OHLC consistent;3 current cap407.96/equity849.92 replaces stale560.95. Method252/365return intervals, SMA200, arithmeticTR20, P90 rolling60bar percentage gains endpoints since2021-09-18. Table [{"symbol":"SPY","close":760.71,"return_pct":16.830998894213046,"sma200":712.0295499999999,"atr20":6.151500000000004,"p90_pct":10.841971102491437,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","close":716.92,"return_pct":21.852638735446583,"sma200":661.24,"atr20":8.319179999999994,"p90_pct":16.169596547248037,"rank":2,"size":103.11},{"symbol":"IWM","close":285.43,"return_pct":21.006443954553177,"sma200":273.30589999999995,"atr20":3.3055000000000065,"p90_pct":12.827297936488211,"rank":3,"size":83.46},{"symbol":"EFA","close":106.04,"return_pct":17.482827387547097,"sma200":100.9641,"atr20":0.9922449999999998,"p90_pct":9.630887522284759,"rank":4,"size":0},{"symbol":"EEM","close":66.91,"return_pct":28.648336858296485,"sma200":62.022600000000004,"atr20":0.9532499999999999,"p90_pct":10.720899217530388,"rank":1,"size":89.95},{"symbol":"GLD","close":398.36,"return_pct":17.306163314585255,"sma200":416.16355,"atr20":8.003945000000005,"p90_pct":16.786147299684146,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","close":81.78,"return_pct":-5.336265771501325,"sma200":84.3833,"atr20":0.6713750000000018,"p90_pct":6.153143932949214,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","close":76356.6755,"return_pct":-34.45640525971621,"sma200":70340.00431958945,"atr20":2087.10826440355,"p90_pct":36.805348430604,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","close":2445.7245,"return_pct":-46.74130474547925,"sma200":2067.5034881083275,"atr20":93.71921616629997,"p90_pct":42.543852520870196,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Conclusion initial EEM/QQQ/IWM, unchanged since04UTC; GLD/TLT belowSMA, crypto lower ranks despite aboveSMA. No repeated momentum validation, no monthly turnover implied. Sizes contingent RTH actualentry/state refresh; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/crypto-bars . Source definitions https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/stockbars : all includes dividend/split/spinoff adjustments. Total-return proxy; independent reinvestment not reconstructed. 2692ETF/2086crypto bars. Revised old history and one-provider errors remain possible.
cap407.96
equity849.92
EEM89.95
QQQ103.11
IWM83.46
notional276.52
orders0
September18 closed-session decision and executable RTH handoff
StrategiesadoptCore trend fractionalEEM, QQQ, IWM2026-09-18 04:18
Premises:1 technical3292 selects EEM/QQQ/IWM with Core retired/flat/noqueued orders;2 current ownledger empty, cap560.95/equity849.92/maxposition212.48;3 explicit mandate requires fractional NOTIONAL MARKET in regularsession; supplied04:13UTC marketclosed, nextopen13:30UTC, nexttradingrun13:50UTC;4 risk3293 permits conditional EEM89.95/QQQ103.11/IWM83.46=276.52, modeled each~25<25.4976. Conclusion no order now; monitor372 directs refreshed eligible deployment at13:50UTC,373 next06UTC research. Monitors353/364 reconciled as missed,327primary report reviewed. No queued limit workaround or lowercrypto substitute. Cash is session constrained now; missedRTH exposure remains an operational mandate gap from reported auth failures, not a bearish signal. After deployment residual284.43 risk constrained. Reference EEM E66.91 stop65.0035 target74.083354 gain10.720899%=3.7626R; QQQ E716.92 stop700.28164 target832.843072 gain16.169597%=6.9672R; IWM E285.43 stop278.819 target322.042957 gain12.827298%=5.5382R. All1–3months; actualentry resets formula levels. Profit-onlyratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR); neverloosen. Recompute every lot after earlierfills; freeze actualfills and verify receipts. Startflat,goalinitalcomplement,binding session and gaprisk. Sound only conditional on data/currentstate/model: longerhalt or novelgap can exceed scenario; P90 not90%success. Fundingneed350.08 doesnotchange sizing. Brokers/liquidityproviders earn costs. Consequences:missed session delays exposure; correlated equity shocks can hit all3; joint~75=8.823%equity must not be described as3%bookrisk. EmpireSep15 activity7.6/orders2/pricespaid63.1 andreceived28.1 context only, no macro veto. No new backtest per specific validated mandate, no staticbootstrap or fabricatedKelly. No ownclosed trades; trade11EEM belongsCore trend, not thisfund. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview ; supplied venuecontext. No collector needed before next06UTC review: no new completed daily session by then; reminders persisted.
orders0
prospective_notional276.52
cap560.95
modeled_joint_loss75
reference_target_gain37.02
reference_stop_loss6.89
September18 delayed fractional exit stress and reference payoff
StatisticaladoptCore trend fractionalEEM, QQQ, IWM2026-09-18 04:17
Premises:1 daily2016–Sep17 2026 history misses2008;2 fresh15Min SIP adjustment=all crisis2020-02-18–04-15,41sessions/82bars perasset at09:30/09:45;3 g=max(daily adverse open gap, adverse first TWO RTH15min lows relative prior close), expanding prior3115 first15low/09:45open envelope to cover first30min;4 model loss=N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005],r=2ATR/E,50bp friction assumption. Selected lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","g":0.10966623320329438,"size":103.11,"stress":24.999049024169075,"stop":700.2816399999999,"target":832.8430715665305,"P90":16.169596547248037,"R":6.967217416051264,"normal":2.39298847793338,"gain":16.67247099986745},{"symbol":"IWM","g":0.13890651917671604,"size":83.46,"stress":24.999608792011877,"stop":278.819,"target":322.0429565001183,"P90":12.827297936488211,"R":5.5381873393008965,"normal":1.9330626072942614,"gain":10.705662857793062},{"symbol":"EEM","g":0.12579415501905977,"size":89.95,"stress":24.99829032289767,"stop":65.0035,"target":74.08335366644958,"P90":10.720899217530388,"R":3.7625773230787214,"normal":2.5629902107308324,"gain":9.643448846168583}]. Worst intraday lows allMar16 2020 09:45bar. Sizes floor cents min(cap/3,25%equity,25/model fraction); $25 budget leaves~$0.50 versus strict3%equity25.4976. Roughly equal risk-constrained notionals276.52, remainder284.43 cannot be deployed to these3 under same stress, not a signal veto. Combinedstress74.99695=8.823%equity, normalstop6.88904,targetgain37.02158 beforecosts. Daily-open-only preliminary sizes117.35/119.10/97.77 superseded. This is sizing analysis, no strategy backtest or calibrated live odds/Kelly. Counterexample larger gap/halt/delayed fill exceeds3%; lows not executable quotes. No guaranteed3% ceiling. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
notional276.52
unallocated284.43
joint_stress75
normal_loss6.89
target_gain37.02
crisis_sessions41
assumed_friction_bps50
September18 completed nine-asset signals: EEM QQQ IWM initial complement
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-18 04:17
Premises:1 paginated Alpaca SIP adjustment=all ETF and crypto bars pass unique timestamp/OHLC checks;2 completed throughSep17,Sep18partial excluded;3 own query_trades empty, supplied Core retired/flat/noqueues, removing EEM exclusion. Method252/365return intervals,SMA200,arithmeticTR20,P90 rolling60bar percentage gains with endpoints since2021-09-18. Adjusted-close total-return proxy; reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Table:[{"symbol":"SPY","date":"2026-09-17 04:00:00+00:00","close":760.71,"return_pct":16.830998894213046,"sma200":712.0295499999999,"atr20":6.151500000000004,"p90_pct":10.841971102491437,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","date":"2026-09-17 04:00:00+00:00","close":716.92,"return_pct":21.852638735446583,"sma200":661.24,"atr20":8.319179999999994,"p90_pct":16.169596547248037,"rank":2,"size":103.11},{"symbol":"IWM","date":"2026-09-17 04:00:00+00:00","close":285.43,"return_pct":21.006443954553177,"sma200":273.30589999999995,"atr20":3.3055000000000065,"p90_pct":12.827297936488211,"rank":3,"size":83.46},{"symbol":"EFA","date":"2026-09-17 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.04,"return_pct":17.482827387547097,"sma200":100.9641,"atr20":0.9922449999999998,"p90_pct":9.630887522284759,"rank":4,"size":0},{"symbol":"EEM","date":"2026-09-17 04:00:00+00:00","close":66.91,"return_pct":28.648336858296485,"sma200":62.022600000000004,"atr20":0.9532499999999999,"p90_pct":10.720899217530388,"rank":1,"size":89.95},{"symbol":"GLD","date":"2026-09-17 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.36,"return_pct":17.306163314585255,"sma200":416.16355,"atr20":8.003945000000005,"p90_pct":16.786147299684146,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","date":"2026-09-17 04:00:00+00:00","close":81.78,"return_pct":-5.336265771501325,"sma200":84.3833,"atr20":0.6713750000000018,"p90_pct":6.153143932949214,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","date":"2026-09-17 00:00:00+00:00","close":76356.6755,"return_pct":-34.45640525971621,"sma200":70340.00431958945,"atr20":2087.10826440355,"p90_pct":36.805348430604,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","date":"2026-09-17 00:00:00+00:00","close":2445.7245,"return_pct":-46.74130474547925,"sma200":2067.5034881083275,"atr20":93.71921616629997,"p90_pct":42.543852520870196,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Initial allocation, no monthly churn. Negative crypto annual return is not separate filter; lower ranks. GLD/TLT belowSMA. ETFs2692bars begin2016-01-04 despite2000 request, crypto2086 begin2021-01-01. No repeated strategy validation. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Conditional sizes; actual fills zero.
selected3
cap560.95
EEM89.95
QQQ103.11
IWM83.46
orders0
21UTC Sunday execution decision and preserved Monday353
StrategiesadoptCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 21:03
Premises:1 fresh nine-signal technical3279 selectsQQQ/IWM/EFA excluding supplied CoreEEMqueue;2 ownquery_trades empty,equity850.99,fund289.34,positioncap212.7475 from context;3 Sundayclosed and specificmandate requires fractional notional MARKET RTH;4 refreshed prices/ATR unchanged versus prior3115/3273 risk. Conditional lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"reference_entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_percent":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"carried_stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"reference_entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_percent":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"carried_stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"reference_entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_percent":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"carried_stress":25.447316122674685}]. Horizon1–3mo; initialstop E-2ATR,target E*(1+P90); profit-onlyratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR),neverloosen. Normal combinedstoploss5.795202,targetgain37.673349 beforecosts. Carried crisisstress75.793656=8.906527%equity; each<25.5297 butEFAheadroom.082384. Before EACH RTHorder refresh actualE/ATR/equity/cost/cash/caps/Coreholds+queues after priorfills, compute N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity,r=2ATR/E,gfrom3115; rounddown/redistribute roughlyequally within cap. Scenario notlossbound/liveodds/Kelly; largergap/longerhalt iscounterexample, oneprovider/revisions aredata limits. No repeatvalidation backtest under specificmandate. Startflat; goalinitialcomplement; bindingconstraintRTHsession. Liquidityproviders receivecosts; fundingpressure doesnotalter risk. Consequences:closure delays exposure, correlatedgap canhitallthree, requiringjoint aswellasindividual riskaccounting. Queried monitors364midnight/353Monday13:50UTC/327Tuesday armed, none due. Preserve them; no duplicatejob before nextcompletedday. No orders/closes/exitmoves; cash session-constrained, no lowercrypto substitution. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; suppliedvenue context.
cap289.34
orders0
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
21UTC completed nine-asset momentum signal table
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 21:03
Premises:1 freshly fetched paginated Alpaca SIP adjustment=all ETF and crypto bars pass unique timestamp/OHLC checks;2 completed ETFs Sep11, crypto Sep12, unfinished Sep13 excluded;3 queried own ledger empty, supplied Core EEM queue excluded. Method:252/365 return intervals,SMA200,arithmetic TR20,P90 rolling60bar percentage gains with endpoints since2021-09-13 midnight. Adjusted-close total-return proxy; dividend reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Table [{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34},{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Initial complement QQQ/IWM/EFA unchanged. Negative annual crypto return is not separate filter, but both rank below selected slots. Sizes conditional; orders zero due Sunday regular-session closure. No repeated strategy validation under specific mandate. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
selected3
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
cap289.34
orders0
19:41 UTC Sunday execution decision and Monday353 handoff
StrategiesadoptCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 19:43
Premises:1 fresh technical3268 selects QQQ/IWM/EFA, excluding supplied Core EEM queue;2 own query_trades empty, equity850.99/fund289.34/position cap212.7475 from context;3 Sunday closed and explicit mandate requires fractional notional MARKET during RTH;4 refreshed prices/ATR match prior risk3265/3115. Conditional lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"reference_entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_percent":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"carried_stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"reference_entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_percent":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"carried_stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"reference_entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_percent":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"carried_stress":25.447316122674685}]. Stop E-2ATR,target E*(1+P90),horizon1–3mo; profit-only ratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR),never loosen. Combined normal stop loss5.795202 and target gain37.673349 before execution costs; carried crisis stress75.793656=8.906527% equity, not guaranteed bound. EFA buffer only0.082384 under25.5297: before EACH RTH order refresh E/ATR/equity/cost/cash/caps/Core exclusions after earlier fills, and calculate N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity with r=2ATR/E,g from3115. Round notionals down/redistribute roughly equally when feasible. No win probability or Kelly estimate inferred from stress; no new strategy test. Conclusion valid conditional on premises; bigger gap/longer halt can exceed3%, feed revisions can change signals, Core fill changes exclusions. Start flat; goal initial complement; binding constraint session. Liquidity providers receive costs; funding shortfall irrelevant. Consequences: Sunday closure delays exposure, correlated gap can hit all three, requiring joint and individual risk accounting. Own monitors364 midnight,353 Monday13:50UTC,327Tuesday confirmed armed; none due, no duplicate monitor/job needed before next completed bar. No orders,closes,exit changes or lower-ranked crypto substitution. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; supplied venue context and queried own ledger.
cap289.34
orders0
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
19:41 UTC completed nine-asset signal table
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 19:42
Premises: 1 Fresh paginated venue Alpaca SIP adjustment=all ETF bars and crypto daily bars pass duplicate timestamp/OHLC checks. 2 ETFs end Sep11, crypto Sep12; exclude unfinished Sep13. 3 Own queried ledger empty; supplied Core queued EEM excluded. Compute 252/365 interval returns, SMA200, arithmetic TR20, P90 rolling60bar percentage gains with endpoints since2021-09-13 midnight. Adjusted closes are total-return proxy; dividend reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Table [{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34},{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Initial eligible complement QQQ/IWM/EFA unchanged; size conditional, actual orders zero because Sunday RTH closed. Negative annual crypto returns do not add an exclusion beyond fixed SMA rule, but both rank below selected slots. One provider; unchanged observations add no validation evidence; no new backtest required by specific mandate. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
selected3
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
cap289.34
orders0
Sunday 16:31 UTC execution decision and preserved Monday353
StrategiesadoptCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 16:33
Premises:1 technical3261 reproduces eligible complement QQQ/IWM/EFA excluding supplied Core EEM queue.2 Own ledger empty; context equity850.99,fund289.34,position cap212.7475.3 Sunday closed; mandate fractional notional MARKET in regular session.4 Reference ATR/prices unchanged, prior3115/3249 scenario carried. Lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"reference_entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_percent":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"carried_stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"reference_entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_percent":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"carried_stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"reference_entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_percent":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"carried_stress":25.447316122674685}]. Stop E-2ATR20,target E*(1+P90),1–3months; once profitable ratchet max(existing stop,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. Gross combined stop loss5.795202,target gain37.673349,stress75.793656=8.906527%account equity. Each modeled stress below25.5297, EFA headroom0.082384; full loss can exceed3% in larger gap/longer halt. Before EACH order refresh E/ATR/equity/cost/cash/caps/Core holds+queues, use N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity,r=2ATR/E,g from3115,round notionals down and redistribute roughly equally within cap. No live odds/Kelly inferred from stress scenarios; no repeat validation or static simulation of unchanged inputs. Valid conditional conclusion, evidence limited to one provider and modeled gap envelope; counterexample bigger gap breaks loss estimate. Start flat, goal initial complement, binding constraint session. Liquidity providers benefit from execution costs; funding need is irrelevant to payoff. Consequences: closure defers exposure, correlated gap can hit all three, hence joint as well as individual refresh required. No own due monitors; preserve364 Sep14 00UTC,353 Monday13:50UTC,327 Tuesday. Existing reminders are not orders. No duplicate collector needed while flat before next completed daily bar. No orders/closes/exit adjustments; no lower-ranked crypto substitute. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; supplied Sep13 venue state and own queried ledger.
cap289.34
orders0
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
16:31 UTC nine completed signals and initial fractional complement
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 16:33
Premises:1 fresh paginated Alpaca SIP adjustment=all ETF and crypto daily bars pass unique timestamp/OHLC checks;2 ETFs through Sep11, crypto Sep12, incomplete Sep13 excluded;3 queried own ledger empty and supplied Core queued EEM excluded. Method 252/365 return intervals, adjusted-close total-return proxy, SMA200, arithmetic true-range20, P90 rolling60bar percentage gains with endpoints since2021-09-13 midnight UTC. Dividend reinvestment not independently reconstructed; one provider. Table [{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34},{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}]. QQQ/IWM/EFA remain initial complement; annual negative return is not an extra exclusion if above SMA. First request with current-time end returned403; completed-day end succeeded. Midnight date normalization preserves prior target sample; intraday timestamp cutoff would incorrectly discard first date. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Specific validated mandate requires no new strategy backtest.
selected3
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
cap289.34
orders0
Sunday 13:51 UTC session constraint and preserved fractional deployment
StrategiesadoptCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 13:53
Premises:1 technical3247 freshly reproduces QQQ/IWM/EFA initial complement after excluding supplied Core EEM queue. 2 Own ledger empty; equity850.99,cap289.34,position cap212.7475. 3 Sunday closed; explicit mandate requires fractional notional MARKET in RTH, so cannot execute now. 4 Carried3115/3236 risk scenario unchanged because reference prices/ATR unchanged. Conditional lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"reference_entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_percent":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"carried_stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"reference_entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_percent":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"carried_stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"reference_entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_percent":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"carried_stress":25.447316122674685}]. Horizon1–3months; at actual E stop E-2ATR20,target E*(1+P90); once profitable ratchet max(existing stop,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. Total normal stop loss5.795202,target gain37.673349,joint stress75.793656=8.906527%equity. Perlot modeled loss below25.5297; not maximum possible loss. Before EACH order refresh equity/cash/caps/Core positions+queues/E/ATR/costs and N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity,r=2ATR/E,g from3115; round down and redistribute roughly equally as needed. EFA headroom .0824 can disappear after costs. Counterexample: larger gap or longer halt exceeds modeled envelope; no live odds or Kelly inferred from it. Conclusion conditional and sound only to stated data/model limits. Start flat, goal complement, binding constraint RTH. Liquidity providers receive costs; funding shortfall does not improve payoff. Consequences: closed session postpones exposure, correlated overnight shocks can hit all lots, hence refresh joint as well as individual risk before deployment. Preserve armed364 next Sep14 00UTC,353 Monday13:50UTC,327Tuesday; no own monitor due now. No order/close/exit move, no limit or lower crypto substitute. Existing reminders suffice while flat before next completed day; no new collector. Specific mandate excludes repeating validation. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; supplied venue context Sep13 and queried own ledger.
cap289.34
orders0
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
13:51 UTC refreshed completed momentum signals and fractional complement
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 13:52
Premises: 1 Fresh paginated venue Alpaca SIP adjustment=all ETF bars and crypto daily bars pass unique timestamp and OHLC checks. 2 Completed ETFs through Sep11 and crypto through Sep12; exclude unfinished Sep13. 3 Own queried ledger empty; supplied Core pending EEM excluded. Method: 252/365 interval adjusted-close total-return proxy, SMA200, arithmetic mean true range20, rolling60bar percentage-gain P90 endpoints in last5years. Dividend reinvestment not independently reconstructed; one provider. Signal table [{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34},{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Sizes conditional only; rank above SMA without additional positive annual-return gate. QQQ/IWM/EFA unchanged. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . No repeat strategy validation under fixed mandate.
selected3
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
fund_cap289.34
orders0
Sunday execution conclusion: session-bound cash and preserved Monday353
StrategiesadoptCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 12:33
Premises:1 refreshed nine signals3234 preserve QQQ/IWM/EFA complement excluding Core queued EEM;2 own ledger empty, context equity850.99 and fund289.34;3 Sunday market CLOSED per supplied venue context, specific mandate fractional notional MARKET in RTH;4 prior3115 delayed-exit envelope remains conditional, fresh inputs unchanged. Reference lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_pct":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_pct":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_pct":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"stress":25.447316122674685}]. Horizon1–3months. At actual entry E set stopE-2ATR20,targetE*(1+P90); profit-only ratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. Combined gross target37.673349, normal stop loss5.795202, joint stress75.793656=8.906527%equity; perlot under25.5297 in model, not worst-case guarantee. Before EACH order refresh equity/cash/cap/Core exclusions/E/ATR/costs; r=2ATR/E, N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity with g from3115, round down strict caps. First order fees/other-book losses reduce equity; second order narrow IWM/EFA headroom can disappear; third order recompute/redistribute within roughly equal sizing. Strongest counterexample longer halt or larger gap exceeds envelope; no forward crash odds/Kelly inferred. Who benefits: liquidity providers earn costs; month-end funding need does not change target or sizing. Conclusion valid conditional on these premises; session is binding now. No order, close or exit move this run. Preserve verified armed364 Sep14 00UTC,353 Monday13:50UTC,327Tuesday; none own due now. Reminder is not queued order. No new collector needed while flat before next completed daily bar/next run; no duplicate monitors. No lower-ranked crypto or limit substitute for required RTH market execution. No new backtest per explicit validated mandate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; ledger and supplied venue context Sep13.
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
cap289.34
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
orders0
Sunday trading run: nine completed signals preserve QQQ IWM EFA complement
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 12:33
Premises:1 fresh paginated venue Alpaca stock-bars SIP adjustment=all and crypto-bars, unique timestamps and OHLC checks passed;2 ETFs completed Sep11, crypto Sep12, Sep13 partial excluded;3 query_trades trend-frac empty and supplied context Core EEM pending excluded. Calculate 252/365 interval adjusted-close total-return proxy, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20 and P90 rolling60bar percentage gains with endpoints since2021-09-13. Dividend reinvestment not independently reconstructed. Table [{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34},{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}]. Rank above-SMA assets only; no extra positive annual-return gate. Initial complement unchanged, proposed sizes conditional; actual orders zero because Sunday and mandate requires RTH notional market orders. No repeated momentum backtest per specific mandate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
selected3
cap289.34
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
orders0
08UTC pre-open plan: preserve353, refresh before every fractional fill
StrategiesadoptCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 08:04
Premises:1 signals3201 reproduce eligibleQQQ/IWM/EFA excluding CorequeuedEEM;2 ownempty/equity850.99/fund289.34;3 Sundayclosed and mandate specifically requires RTH notionalmarket;4 prior delayed-exit model3115/3149 remains conditional. Reference plan [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"reference_entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_pct":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"reference_entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_pct":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"reference_entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_pct":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"stress":25.447316122674685}]. Actual entry E governs stopE-2ATR20 and targetE*(1+P90),1–3months; ratchet only in profit max(existing,SMA200,20dayhigh-2ATR20), never loosen. These reference levels are NOT submitted stops or guaranteed fills. Gross combined target37.673349/normal loss5.795202; joint stressed75.793656=8.906527%equity. No live odds/halfKelly inferred from P90; specific roughlyequal mandate governs and validated edge not rebacktested. Counterexamples adverse halt/gap larger than modeled, simultaneous shifts in ATR/equity/costs. Recompute scenario N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03*equity before EACH order, not merely first; round down within cash/fund/25%position limits. 353 MondaySep14 13:50UTC retained,327 TuesdayEmpire retained; 359 reviewed. What changes plan: Core exclusions/fills, completed signal eligibility before initial deployment, current equity/cap/cash, execution costs or unavailable session/data; macro headlines alone do not. Once invested monthly first trading run or stop rerank; no daily churn. Today no orders/closes/exits; cash constrained by session, not bearish choice. Do not queue whole-share/limit substitutes or lower-ranked crypto. Next research Sep14 00UTC before open; no intrarun job needed while flat, no new completed daily input before then. Calendar3204 includes five earnings and unresolved TLXstatus, not exhaustive FDA calendar. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars plus primary originals3204.
cap289.34
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
orders0
08UTC two-session primary calendar: context and execution branches
ConsequenceswatchCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 08:04
Premises:1 calendars and issuer originals reverified Sep13: Sep14 no listed indicator; Sep15 Empire State manufacturing08:30ET; source calendar read Sep13. Source https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html Agency calendar lists no selected releases Sep14–15; Sep16 import/export prices08:30ET. Read Sep13, not comprehensive all-market calendar. Source https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm Agency calendar no listed releases Sep14–15; Sep16 retail08:30ET/inventories10ET. Read Sep13. Source https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html Read Sep13: Sep14 H10/H15 16:15ET; Sep14/15 commercial paper13ET and H15 16:15ET; FOMC Sep15–16 decisionSep16 14ET, pressconference14:30ET. Source https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-september.htm Aug17 issuer: Sep14 before-open fiscalQ4/FY2026 results,08ET call. Reverified Sep13. Source https://ir.hain.com/news-releases/news-release-details/hain-celestial-announces-fiscal-2026-fourth-quarter-and-full Aug25 issuer: quarter endedJul31 resultsSep14AMC, callSep15 11:30ET. Reverified Sep13. Source https://hightideinc.com/high-tide-to-announce-third-fiscal-quarter-2026-financial-results/ Sep1 issuer: quarter endedAug4 resultsSep14AMC,17ET call. Reverified Sep13. Source https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 Sep1 issuer: Q2FY2027 resultsSep15 08ET,08:30ET call. Reverified Sep13. Source https://investors.verabradley.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vera-bradley-inc-announces-reporting-date-second-quarter-1 Sep2 issuer: quarter/half endedJun30 resultsSep15AMC,20ETcall. Reverified Sep13. Source https://investors.trip.com/node/15681/pdf Apr10 issuer assigns Sep11 PDUFA goal date. Sep13 review https://telixpharma.com/news-views/ displays no Pixclara decision in returned listing; outcome unknown, neither proof of delay nor newSep14/15 deadline. Not exhaustive FDA review. Source https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ 2 mandate fixed nine assets, own flat and no single-name eligibility;3 353 deployment conditional with perlot scenario under3%, joint8.9065%. First order: macro/earnings outcomes can change rates, earnings expectations and ETF prices; direction is inference, not measured surprise. Second order: common equity repricing may reduce account equity while costs rise, consuming EFA0.0824USD/IWM0.1179 buffers. Third order: refresh all inputs and redistribute within strict risk/cash/fund/position limits at RTH. Favorable/adverse calendar outcomes alone do not veto entry or trigger discretionary rerank. If actual stop fires, lesson+rerank; if green, ratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR); otherwise hold within1–3mo. Strongest counterexample: longer halt/larger gaps exceed frozen envelope; calendar coverage not exhaustive and no calibrated macro surprise odds. No new fundamental valuation claim. Who benefits: intermediary liquidity earns execution costs; diversification does not guarantee independent losses.
sessions2
earnings_verified5
perlot_allowance25.53
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
08UTC nine-asset signals and conditional Monday complement
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalSPY, QQQ, IWM, EFA, EEM, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 08:03
Premises: 1 fresh paginated Alpaca venue bars,1682 per ETF/2081 per crypto, unique timestamps and OHLC checks pass; 2 ETFs completed Sep11/crypto Sep12, Sep13 partial excluded; 3 own query_trades empty and current supplied Core EEM queue excluded. 252/365 interval adjusted close total-return proxy, SMA200, arithmetic ATR20, P90 rolling60bar percentage gains whose endpoints are within last5years. Table [{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"rank":5,"size":0},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"rank":2,"size":104.34},{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"rank":3,"size":93.5},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"rank":4,"size":91.5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"rank":1,"size":0},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"rank":null,"size":0},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"rank":6,"size":0},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"rank":7,"size":0}]. QQQ/IWM/EFA remain top eligible complement; negative annual crypto returns are ranked without inventing positive-return filter. Proposed sizes conditional, actual orders zero, session closed. Specific mandate says no repeat momentum validation; no new backtest or duplicate static Monte Carlo. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars SIP adjustment all and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . One provider, dividend reinvestment not independently reconstructed.
selected3
cap289.34
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
orders0
06UTC conclusion: preserve Monday complement with quantified refresh thresholds
StrategiesadoptCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 06:04
Premises:1 signals3148 unchanged, own ledger empty and supplied CoreEEMqueue excluded;2 session closed and mandate requiresRTH fractional notionalmarket;3 current cap289.34 and scenario checks3149 support conditional104.34/93.50/91.50, but IWM/EFA headroom only.117906/.082384USD;4 no new momentum information from repeated weekend bars. Conclusion preserveMonday353 andTuesday327, resolve354 and arm08UTC359. Noorders/closes/exitmoves; cash is session-bound, not discretionary rejection of long rule. AtMonday13:50UTC refresh state/Core exclusions/completedbars/actualentry/equity before each order and recompute strict risk ceilings. Target percentagesQQQ16.169585/IWM12.823845/EFA9.630283, reference stop699.14315/282.74895/104.93826 target830.473132/325.936805/116.975512;1–3months, actualentry formulas govern. Gross targetgain37.673349 vsnormalstoploss5.795202, not expectedprofit. Joint scenario75.793656=8.906527%equity, not bound; equityfloorEFA848.243871 andcostheadroom9.0037bp show why fixednotionals cannot be copied blindly. Counterexamples larger gaps, longerhalts, jointinputshifts; oneprovider adjustedreturn proxy without independent reinvestment reconstruction. No strategybacktest or repeatedMonteCarlo under explicit validatedmandate and prior3114 limitation; new108cell deterministic sensitivity is not probability model or OOS strategy test. No freshfundamental valuation claim, no macro veto orFUNDproposal. No scheduledjob needed before08UTC whileflat, no newlycompletedday; existingMondayreminder covers execution. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
cap289.34
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
orders0
joint_stress75.79
target_gain37.67
normal_stop_loss5.8
scenario_cells108
06UTC fixed notionals can become noncompliant without a signal change
ConsequenceswatchCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 06:03
Premises:1 current all-account equity850.99, conditional fund289.34;2 EFA scenario25.447316 versus allowance25.5297;3 scenario fractions scale inversely with equity at fixed notional. First order costs or other-book losses reduce equity. Second order unchanged EFA91.50 reaches3% at848.243871 (a2.746129 equity fall), even with identical ETF signals. Third order a stale copied allocation breaches its modeled budget; recompute at deployment and redistribute within current cap. Venue cash and account25% caps remain additional constraints. Who benefits from immediate executable liquidity: holders avoid delayed exposure; actual fractional fills are unknown. Joint envelope75.793656=8.906527% equity remains, no claim of account3% combined cap or guaranteed loss bound. No fresh issuer cash-flow claim or fundamental veto; prior marketstructure3116 retained. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and user-supplied venue account context.
equity850.99
EFA_equity_decline_to_boundary2.75
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
06UTC entry sizing sensitivity: tiny equity and cost buffers require refresh
IndicatorsadoptCore trend fractionalQQQ, IWM, EFA2026-09-13 06:03
Premises:1 refreshedsignals3148;2 frozen conservative g QQQ.1083658430862592/IWM.1254295532646048/EFA.13045475424896646 from3115;3 loss N*[2ATR/E+(1-2ATR/E)*2g+.005] strictly below.03*equity. Algebraic equality thresholds and reference exits [{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"RR":6.032649919922496,"stress":25.411794034436106,"buffer":0.11790596556389232,"min_equity":847.0598011478702,"entry_floor":267.6924050716828,"entry_drop_pct":7.3376007921067465,"atr_ceiling":3.3136687871755846,"atr_increase_pct":7.91863890297555,"extra_cost_bp":12.610263696672952,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493},{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"RR":7.3453792610693736,"stress":24.93454579612259,"buffer":0.59515420387741,"min_equity":831.1515265374196,"entry_floor":537.1751223695812,"entry_drop_pct":24.85800101141713,"atr_ceiling":10.471407609472207,"atr_increase_pct":33.08136773842556,"extra_cost_bp":57.03988919660813,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"RR":5.832592688298649,"stress":25.447316122674685,"buffer":0.08238387732531294,"min_equity":848.2438707558229,"entry_floor":99.36846827080154,"entry_drop_pct":6.8711637574493505,"atr_ceiling":0.9458617067927328,"atr_increase_pct":7.378126941856822,"extra_cost_bp":9.003702439924766,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117}]. IWM/EFA cost headroom only12.6103/9.0037bp above assumed50bp, equity floors847.0598/848.2439. These are one-at-a-time sensitivities, not limits robust to joint changes. 108 deterministic entry/ATR/equity scenarios include71 breaches; not odds. Preserve353 amounts as conditional only: recompute each trade after actual state and costs, redistribute roughlyequally within fresh fund/position/risk caps. Round notionals down to cents below calculated ceiling, never equate rounded loss with strictly-under pass. Stop actualE-2ATR, target actualE*(1+P90), horizon1–3months, profit-onlyratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR). P90 magnitudes16.169585/12.823845/9.630283%, not hit probabilities. Counterexample joint larger gap or halt invalidates scenario. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
scenarios108
breaches71
EFA_equity_floor848.24
IWM_equity_floor847.06
EFA_cost_headroom_bp9
IWM_cost_headroom_bp12.61
joint_stress75.79
gross_target_gain37.67
normal_stop_loss5.8
06UTC refreshed fixed signal table: QQQ/IWM/EFA unchanged
TechnicaladoptCore trend fractionalIWM, QQQ, SPY, EEM, EFA, GLD, TLT, BTC/USD, ETH/USD2026-09-13 06:03
Premises:1 fresh paginated provider bars, 1682 per ETF and2081 percrypto, duplicates and OHLC checks pass;2 completed Sep11 ETFs/Sep12 crypto only;3 own query_trades empty, Core EEM queued per current supplied context. Compute252/365 interval adjusted return proxy, SMA200, arithmeticATR20, fiveyear rolling60bar P90. Table [{"symbol":"IWM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":288.89,"ret":23.457264957264947,"sma":273.16515,"atr":3.070524999999995,"p90":0.1282384464354598,"high20":305.18,"size":93.5,"rank":3},{"symbol":"QQQ","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":714.88,"ret":23.69878183831673,"sma":659.2565,"atr":7.868424999999997,"p90":0.1616958533244174,"high20":734.58,"size":104.34,"rank":2},{"symbol":"SPY","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":764.29,"ret":18.489062524223687,"sma":712.0451999999999,"atr":5.452859999999982,"p90":0.10842338318374645,"high20":778.8,"size":0,"rank":5},{"symbol":"EEM","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":67.84,"ret":34.203758654797234,"sma":61.760349999999995,"atr":0.9526399999999988,"p90":0.10717963493264468,"high20":69.125,"size":0,"rank":1},{"symbol":"EFA","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":106.7,"ret":19.45812807881775,"sma":100.67334999999999,"atr":0.8808699999999987,"p90":0.09630282889112697,"high20":108.89,"size":91.5,"rank":4},{"symbol":"GLD","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":398.77,"ret":18.94350653224364,"sma":415.93449999999996,"atr":7.952445000000003,"p90":0.16781703911009302,"high20":429.42,"size":0,"rank":null},{"symbol":"TLT","bars":1682,"date":"2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00","close":80.87,"ret":-5.756904789651552,"sma":84.50049999999999,"atr":0.6911250000000002,"p90":0.06150557763249668,"high20":83.28,"size":0,"rank":null},{"symbol":"BTC/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":77266.385,"ret":-33.45056899540282,"sma":70095.06604458945,"atr":2335.032182487298,"p90":0.37169104405296727,"high20":82233.502538071,"size":0,"rank":6},{"symbol":"ETH/USD","bars":2081,"date":"2026-09-12 00:00:00+00:00","close":2525.045,"ret":-46.433545367857086,"sma":2055.8333431083274,"atr":94.40364558315002,"p90":0.42934306094151997,"high20":2664.8535,"size":0,"rank":7}]. Conclusion QQQ/IWM/EFA complement, no new positive-return filter, no lowercrypto substitute. Proposed sizes conditional on entry/equity stress check, regular-session market notional only. GLD/TLT below SMA; EEM excluded. No edge rebacktest per fixed mandate. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
selected3
cap289.34
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
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