Premises:1 explicit fractional RTH rule means overnight stops wait;2 earlier3293 measured2020 first30min envelope g EEM.125794155019/QQQ.109666233203/IWM.138906519177 across41sessions plus daily history; these g carried, not remeasured06UTC;3 freshATR/close and sizes from3298. At actualE let r=2ATR/E; modeled loss=N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]. 50bp cost allowance and double-envelope multiplier are stress assumptions, not probability estimates. Current89.95/103.11/83.46 yields perlot24.998290/24.999049/24.999609, all below3%equity25.4976; total74.996948=8.824001%equity. N=floor cents min(cap/3,25%equity,25/stress_fraction). Currentcap407.96 gives slot135.9867, risk limits bind; total276.52, residual131.44. Single envelope joint41.634295(4.898613%); triple envelope108.359602(12.749388%), perlot35.991065/36.044304/36.324232 breaches3%. Full default could lose invested276.52: no universal gap-loss guarantee. First order overnight shock crossesstop; second order unavailable fractionalexit waits for RTH plus15min checking and possible liquidity gaps; third order correlated ETFs can lose together and shrink all subsequent caps. Brokers/liquidityproviders receive costs; manager must not turn costs/fundingneed into expectedreturn. Strongest counterargument: double2020 stress arbitrary and omits2008/novelhalts, ordinary historical risk model cannot certify it. Response explicitly carry assumption, maintain strict modeledheadroom and fresh sizing; do not shrink/enlarge based on funding pressure or bootstrap. Reference aggregate normal-stop loss6.889041 and targetgain37.021583 before costs; horizon1–3months, P90 target is not90%success. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; live constraints supplied context.
cap407.96
notional276.52
residual131.44
stress_joint75
stress_equity_pct8.82
single_joint41.63
triple_joint108.36
normal_stop_loss6.89
target_gain37.02
risk_budget_perlot25
strict_limit25.5
Long annual momentum with uneven short-term trend strength
Premises:1 completed signals3298 use fixed annual ranks plus SMA200 filter;2 current distance aboveSMA EEM7.880031%,QQQ8.420543%,IWM4.436092%;3 twenty-session returns EEM+1.210104%,QQQ+.117305%,IWM-5.150699%, currentATR/price1.424675/1.160406/1.158077%. Conclusion IWM has weakest short-horizon path while remaining rank3 at annual+21.006444%; this is not broken eligibility or a new RSI/short-momentum veto. Annual/200day filters overlap trend information; combining them does not imply independent confirmation. Last60 EEM/QQQcorr.832760 indicates shared risk despite different geography. Flat initial allocation remains EEM/QQQ/IWM; after entry review actualR/horizon and profit-onlyratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. No calibrated causal attribution to macro headlines. Counterexample short fall can become persistent trend reversal; stop and scheduled review implement response instead of ad hoc rule change. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
EEM_aboveSMA_pct7.88
QQQ_aboveSMA_pct8.42
IWM_aboveSMA_pct4.44
EEM_20d_pct1.21
QQQ_20d_pct0.12
IWM_20d_pct-5.15
EEM_QQQ_corr600.83
Paired block Monte Carlo: uncertainty in historical tail-risk estimates
Premises:1 statistical risk audit uses428daily return vectors2025-01-02–Sep17 2026 for current89.95/103.11/83.46 notionals;2 resample vectors jointly to preserve contemporaneous cross-asset dependence;3 circular blocks5sessions retain short clusters, 10000replicates, seed9180601. Per replicate sample428days, calculate empirical95% expected-shortfall tail mean,99%loss quantile and mean of frozen threshold-exceedance indicators. Results originalES95=7.609460USD, percentile95% bootstrap interval[5.947080,9.492035]; VaR99=9.368118 interval[6.596389,13.503072]; threshold coverage exceedance.934579% interval[0,2.102804]%. These are Monte Carlo uncertainty intervals for historical daily mark-risk estimates, NOT prospective loss limits, exit odds, independent OOS strategy returns or a Kelly estimate. Resampling observations already inspected and choosing current symbols retrospectively means no new edge evidence. Blocks cannot create novel shocks; 428days and ~22tail observations leave material uncertainty. Circular joins approximate, block length unoptimized; no claim calibrated CI coverage. No repeat static stop/target bootstrap. Decision preserve mandate and earlier crisis stress, do not enlarge sizes because threshold count resembles1%. Costs and actual RTH stop execution absent from return sample; 50bp only in separate stress. Counterexample prolonged halt/new gap is outside bootstrap support. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; quant.py/quant_results.json.
replicates10000
block_sessions5
sample428
ES957.61
ES_CI_low5.95
ES_CI_high9.49
VaR_CI_low6.6
VaR_CI_high13.5
coverage_CI_high_pct2.1
seed9180601
Chronological risk-model audit: dependence and 2025–26 threshold coverage
Premises:1 current EEM/QQQ/IWM sizes89.95/103.11/83.46 determine fixed dollar daily return exposure;2 aligned adjusted close returns2016–Sep17 2026;3 model decay.94 fixed before this computation, standardized loss99th percentile estimated only2016–2024 after252warmup observations. Test2025-01-02–2026-09-17,428days, training2263days. Prior-day EWMA squared return forecasts next-day scale; test data update volatility only after realization; threshold multiplier3.015193607. Four exceedances/428=.934579%, latest next-day threshold8.343642USD. This is chronological risk calibration, NOT independent OOS strategy validation: todays symbols and weights chosen with hindsight, prior runs already saw historical data, no selection/rebalancing/exits/fees modeled. No tuning sweep or gate imposed. Pair correlations EEM-QQQ/EEM-IWM/QQQ-IWM train.719423/.689657/.756580; test.772195/.682891/.802395; last60.832760/.634451/.711276. Downside189days conditional correlations.578614/.393634/.642452 subject to selection conditioning. Test actual joint daily SD3.530578 versus independence2.239607; ignoring dependence understates dispersion. Historical test worst dollar daily loss15.128603 Apr4 2025, empiricalVaR99 9.368118, ES95 7.609460. Dollar returns assume daily constant exposure for a risk lens, not buy-and-hold NAV. Valid conclusion: retain dependence-aware stress sizing, not per-lot loss interpreted as book loss. Soundness limits oneprovider, revised history, daily closes miss exit delays/tails; no confidence that99% of future losses stay below threshold. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Reproducible quant.py and quant_results.json.
training2263
test428
exceedances4
exceedance_pct0.93
SD_joint3.53
SD_independent2.24
VaR999.37
ES957.61
worst_daily_loss15.13
latest_threshold8.34
06UTC nine completed signals and reduced-cap initial complement
Premises:1 technical3292 selects EEM/QQQ/IWM with Core retired/flat/noqueued orders;2 current ownledger empty, cap560.95/equity849.92/maxposition212.48;3 explicit mandate requires fractional NOTIONAL MARKET in regularsession; supplied04:13UTC marketclosed, nextopen13:30UTC, nexttradingrun13:50UTC;4 risk3293 permits conditional EEM89.95/QQQ103.11/IWM83.46=276.52, modeled each~25<25.4976. Conclusion no order now; monitor372 directs refreshed eligible deployment at13:50UTC,373 next06UTC research. Monitors353/364 reconciled as missed,327primary report reviewed. No queued limit workaround or lowercrypto substitute. Cash is session constrained now; missedRTH exposure remains an operational mandate gap from reported auth failures, not a bearish signal. After deployment residual284.43 risk constrained. Reference EEM E66.91 stop65.0035 target74.083354 gain10.720899%=3.7626R; QQQ E716.92 stop700.28164 target832.843072 gain16.169597%=6.9672R; IWM E285.43 stop278.819 target322.042957 gain12.827298%=5.5382R. All1–3months; actualentry resets formula levels. Profit-onlyratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR); neverloosen. Recompute every lot after earlierfills; freeze actualfills and verify receipts. Startflat,goalinitalcomplement,binding session and gaprisk. Sound only conditional on data/currentstate/model: longerhalt or novelgap can exceed scenario; P90 not90%success. Fundingneed350.08 doesnotchange sizing. Brokers/liquidityproviders earn costs. Consequences:missed session delays exposure; correlated equity shocks can hit all3; joint~75=8.823%equity must not be described as3%bookrisk. EmpireSep15 activity7.6/orders2/pricespaid63.1 andreceived28.1 context only, no macro veto. No new backtest per specific validated mandate, no staticbootstrap or fabricatedKelly. No ownclosed trades; trade11EEM belongsCore trend, not thisfund. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview ; supplied venuecontext. No collector needed before next06UTC review: no new completed daily session by then; reminders persisted.
orders0
prospective_notional276.52
cap560.95
modeled_joint_loss75
reference_target_gain37.02
reference_stop_loss6.89
September18 delayed fractional exit stress and reference payoff
Premises:1 daily2016–Sep17 2026 history misses2008;2 fresh15Min SIP adjustment=all crisis2020-02-18–04-15,41sessions/82bars perasset at09:30/09:45;3 g=max(daily adverse open gap, adverse first TWO RTH15min lows relative prior close), expanding prior3115 first15low/09:45open envelope to cover first30min;4 model loss=N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005],r=2ATR/E,50bp friction assumption. Selected lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","g":0.10966623320329438,"size":103.11,"stress":24.999049024169075,"stop":700.2816399999999,"target":832.8430715665305,"P90":16.169596547248037,"R":6.967217416051264,"normal":2.39298847793338,"gain":16.67247099986745},{"symbol":"IWM","g":0.13890651917671604,"size":83.46,"stress":24.999608792011877,"stop":278.819,"target":322.0429565001183,"P90":12.827297936488211,"R":5.5381873393008965,"normal":1.9330626072942614,"gain":10.705662857793062},{"symbol":"EEM","g":0.12579415501905977,"size":89.95,"stress":24.99829032289767,"stop":65.0035,"target":74.08335366644958,"P90":10.720899217530388,"R":3.7625773230787214,"normal":2.5629902107308324,"gain":9.643448846168583}]. Worst intraday lows allMar16 2020 09:45bar. Sizes floor cents min(cap/3,25%equity,25/model fraction); $25 budget leaves~$0.50 versus strict3%equity25.4976. Roughly equal risk-constrained notionals276.52, remainder284.43 cannot be deployed to these3 under same stress, not a signal veto. Combinedstress74.99695=8.823%equity, normalstop6.88904,targetgain37.02158 beforecosts. Daily-open-only preliminary sizes117.35/119.10/97.77 superseded. This is sizing analysis, no strategy backtest or calibrated live odds/Kelly. Counterexample larger gap/halt/delayed fill exceeds3%; lows not executable quotes. No guaranteed3% ceiling. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
Premises:1 fresh technical3268 selects QQQ/IWM/EFA, excluding supplied Core EEM queue;2 own query_trades empty, equity850.99/fund289.34/position cap212.7475 from context;3 Sunday closed and explicit mandate requires fractional notional MARKET during RTH;4 refreshed prices/ATR match prior risk3265/3115. Conditional lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"reference_entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_percent":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"carried_stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"reference_entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_percent":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"carried_stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"reference_entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_percent":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"carried_stress":25.447316122674685}]. Stop E-2ATR,target E*(1+P90),horizon1–3mo; profit-only ratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR),never loosen. Combined normal stop loss5.795202 and target gain37.673349 before execution costs; carried crisis stress75.793656=8.906527% equity, not guaranteed bound. EFA buffer only0.082384 under25.5297: before EACH RTH order refresh E/ATR/equity/cost/cash/caps/Core exclusions after earlier fills, and calculate N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity with r=2ATR/E,g from3115. Round notionals down/redistribute roughly equally when feasible. No win probability or Kelly estimate inferred from stress; no new strategy test. Conclusion valid conditional on premises; bigger gap/longer halt can exceed3%, feed revisions can change signals, Core fill changes exclusions. Start flat; goal initial complement; binding constraint session. Liquidity providers receive costs; funding shortfall irrelevant. Consequences: Sunday closure delays exposure, correlated gap can hit all three, requiring joint and individual risk accounting. Own monitors364 midnight,353 Monday13:50UTC,327Tuesday confirmed armed; none due, no duplicate monitor/job needed before next completed bar. No orders,closes,exit changes or lower-ranked crypto substitution. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; supplied venue context and queried own ledger.
Premises:1 technical3261 reproduces eligible complement QQQ/IWM/EFA excluding supplied Core EEM queue.2 Own ledger empty; context equity850.99,fund289.34,position cap212.7475.3 Sunday closed; mandate fractional notional MARKET in regular session.4 Reference ATR/prices unchanged, prior3115/3249 scenario carried. Lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"reference_entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_percent":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"carried_stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"reference_entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_percent":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"carried_stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"reference_entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_percent":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"carried_stress":25.447316122674685}]. Stop E-2ATR20,target E*(1+P90),1–3months; once profitable ratchet max(existing stop,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. Gross combined stop loss5.795202,target gain37.673349,stress75.793656=8.906527%account equity. Each modeled stress below25.5297, EFA headroom0.082384; full loss can exceed3% in larger gap/longer halt. Before EACH order refresh E/ATR/equity/cost/cash/caps/Core holds+queues, use N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity,r=2ATR/E,g from3115,round notionals down and redistribute roughly equally within cap. No live odds/Kelly inferred from stress scenarios; no repeat validation or static simulation of unchanged inputs. Valid conditional conclusion, evidence limited to one provider and modeled gap envelope; counterexample bigger gap breaks loss estimate. Start flat, goal initial complement, binding constraint session. Liquidity providers benefit from execution costs; funding need is irrelevant to payoff. Consequences: closure defers exposure, correlated gap can hit all three, hence joint as well as individual refresh required. No own due monitors; preserve364 Sep14 00UTC,353 Monday13:50UTC,327 Tuesday. Existing reminders are not orders. No duplicate collector needed while flat before next completed daily bar. No orders/closes/exit adjustments; no lower-ranked crypto substitute. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; supplied Sep13 venue state and own queried ledger.
cap289.34
orders0
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
16:31 UTC nine completed signals and initial fractional complement
Premises:1 technical3247 freshly reproduces QQQ/IWM/EFA initial complement after excluding supplied Core EEM queue. 2 Own ledger empty; equity850.99,cap289.34,position cap212.7475. 3 Sunday closed; explicit mandate requires fractional notional MARKET in RTH, so cannot execute now. 4 Carried3115/3236 risk scenario unchanged because reference prices/ATR unchanged. Conditional lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"reference_entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_percent":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"carried_stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"reference_entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_percent":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"carried_stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"reference_entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_percent":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"carried_stress":25.447316122674685}]. Horizon1–3months; at actual E stop E-2ATR20,target E*(1+P90); once profitable ratchet max(existing stop,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. Total normal stop loss5.795202,target gain37.673349,joint stress75.793656=8.906527%equity. Perlot modeled loss below25.5297; not maximum possible loss. Before EACH order refresh equity/cash/caps/Core positions+queues/E/ATR/costs and N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity,r=2ATR/E,g from3115; round down and redistribute roughly equally as needed. EFA headroom .0824 can disappear after costs. Counterexample: larger gap or longer halt exceeds modeled envelope; no live odds or Kelly inferred from it. Conclusion conditional and sound only to stated data/model limits. Start flat, goal complement, binding constraint RTH. Liquidity providers receive costs; funding shortfall does not improve payoff. Consequences: closed session postpones exposure, correlated overnight shocks can hit all lots, hence refresh joint as well as individual risk before deployment. Preserve armed364 next Sep14 00UTC,353 Monday13:50UTC,327Tuesday; no own monitor due now. No order/close/exit move, no limit or lower crypto substitute. Existing reminders suffice while flat before next completed day; no new collector. Specific mandate excludes repeating validation. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; supplied venue context Sep13 and queried own ledger.
cap289.34
orders0
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
joint_equity_pct8.91
13:51 UTC refreshed completed momentum signals and fractional complement
Premises:1 refreshed nine signals3234 preserve QQQ/IWM/EFA complement excluding Core queued EEM;2 own ledger empty, context equity850.99 and fund289.34;3 Sunday market CLOSED per supplied venue context, specific mandate fractional notional MARKET in RTH;4 prior3115 delayed-exit envelope remains conditional, fresh inputs unchanged. Reference lots [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_pct":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_pct":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_pct":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"stress":25.447316122674685}]. Horizon1–3months. At actual entry E set stopE-2ATR20,targetE*(1+P90); profit-only ratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR), never loosen. Combined gross target37.673349, normal stop loss5.795202, joint stress75.793656=8.906527%equity; perlot under25.5297 in model, not worst-case guarantee. Before EACH order refresh equity/cash/cap/Core exclusions/E/ATR/costs; r=2ATR/E, N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03equity with g from3115, round down strict caps. First order fees/other-book losses reduce equity; second order narrow IWM/EFA headroom can disappear; third order recompute/redistribute within roughly equal sizing. Strongest counterexample longer halt or larger gap exceeds envelope; no forward crash odds/Kelly inferred. Who benefits: liquidity providers earn costs; month-end funding need does not change target or sizing. Conclusion valid conditional on these premises; session is binding now. No order, close or exit move this run. Preserve verified armed364 Sep14 00UTC,353 Monday13:50UTC,327Tuesday; none own due now. Reminder is not queued order. No new collector needed while flat before next completed daily bar/next run; no duplicate monitors. No lower-ranked crypto or limit substitute for required RTH market execution. No new backtest per explicit validated mandate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; ledger and supplied venue context Sep13.
Premises:1 signals3201 reproduce eligibleQQQ/IWM/EFA excluding CorequeuedEEM;2 ownempty/equity850.99/fund289.34;3 Sundayclosed and mandate specifically requires RTH notionalmarket;4 prior delayed-exit model3115/3149 remains conditional. Reference plan [{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"reference_entry":714.88,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"p90_pct":16.16958533244174,"R":7.3453792610693736,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712,"stress":24.93454579612259},{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"reference_entry":288.89,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"p90_pct":12.823844643545982,"R":6.032649919922496,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493,"stress":25.411794034436106},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"reference_entry":106.7,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"p90_pct":9.630282889112697,"R":5.832592688298649,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117,"stress":25.447316122674685}]. Actual entry E governs stopE-2ATR20 and targetE*(1+P90),1–3months; ratchet only in profit max(existing,SMA200,20dayhigh-2ATR20), never loosen. These reference levels are NOT submitted stops or guaranteed fills. Gross combined target37.673349/normal loss5.795202; joint stressed75.793656=8.906527%equity. No live odds/halfKelly inferred from P90; specific roughlyequal mandate governs and validated edge not rebacktested. Counterexamples adverse halt/gap larger than modeled, simultaneous shifts in ATR/equity/costs. Recompute scenario N*[r+(1-r)*2g+.005]<.03*equity before EACH order, not merely first; round down within cash/fund/25%position limits. 353 MondaySep14 13:50UTC retained,327 TuesdayEmpire retained; 359 reviewed. What changes plan: Core exclusions/fills, completed signal eligibility before initial deployment, current equity/cap/cash, execution costs or unavailable session/data; macro headlines alone do not. Once invested monthly first trading run or stop rerank; no daily churn. Today no orders/closes/exits; cash constrained by session, not bearish choice. Do not queue whole-share/limit substitutes or lower-ranked crypto. Next research Sep14 00UTC before open; no intrarun job needed while flat, no new completed daily input before then. Calendar3204 includes five earnings and unresolved TLXstatus, not exhaustive FDA calendar. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars plus primary originals3204.
cap289.34
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
normal_loss5.8
target_gain37.67
joint_stress75.79
orders0
08UTC two-session primary calendar: context and execution branches
Premises:1 signals3148 unchanged, own ledger empty and supplied CoreEEMqueue excluded;2 session closed and mandate requiresRTH fractional notionalmarket;3 current cap289.34 and scenario checks3149 support conditional104.34/93.50/91.50, but IWM/EFA headroom only.117906/.082384USD;4 no new momentum information from repeated weekend bars. Conclusion preserveMonday353 andTuesday327, resolve354 and arm08UTC359. Noorders/closes/exitmoves; cash is session-bound, not discretionary rejection of long rule. AtMonday13:50UTC refresh state/Core exclusions/completedbars/actualentry/equity before each order and recompute strict risk ceilings. Target percentagesQQQ16.169585/IWM12.823845/EFA9.630283, reference stop699.14315/282.74895/104.93826 target830.473132/325.936805/116.975512;1–3months, actualentry formulas govern. Gross targetgain37.673349 vsnormalstoploss5.795202, not expectedprofit. Joint scenario75.793656=8.906527%equity, not bound; equityfloorEFA848.243871 andcostheadroom9.0037bp show why fixednotionals cannot be copied blindly. Counterexamples larger gaps, longerhalts, jointinputshifts; oneprovider adjustedreturn proxy without independent reinvestment reconstruction. No strategybacktest or repeatedMonteCarlo under explicit validatedmandate and prior3114 limitation; new108cell deterministic sensitivity is not probability model or OOS strategy test. No freshfundamental valuation claim, no macro veto orFUNDproposal. No scheduledjob needed before08UTC whileflat, no newlycompletedday; existingMondayreminder covers execution. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .
cap289.34
QQQ104.34
IWM93.5
EFA91.5
orders0
joint_stress75.79
target_gain37.67
normal_stop_loss5.8
scenario_cells108
06UTC fixed notionals can become noncompliant without a signal change
Premises:1 current all-account equity850.99, conditional fund289.34;2 EFA scenario25.447316 versus allowance25.5297;3 scenario fractions scale inversely with equity at fixed notional. First order costs or other-book losses reduce equity. Second order unchanged EFA91.50 reaches3% at848.243871 (a2.746129 equity fall), even with identical ETF signals. Third order a stale copied allocation breaches its modeled budget; recompute at deployment and redistribute within current cap. Venue cash and account25% caps remain additional constraints. Who benefits from immediate executable liquidity: holders avoid delayed exposure; actual fractional fills are unknown. Joint envelope75.793656=8.906527% equity remains, no claim of account3% combined cap or guaranteed loss bound. No fresh issuer cash-flow claim or fundamental veto; prior marketstructure3116 retained. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and user-supplied venue account context.
Premises:1 refreshedsignals3148;2 frozen conservative g QQQ.1083658430862592/IWM.1254295532646048/EFA.13045475424896646 from3115;3 loss N*[2ATR/E+(1-2ATR/E)*2g+.005] strictly below.03*equity. Algebraic equality thresholds and reference exits [{"symbol":"IWM","size":93.5,"stop":282.74895,"target":325.93680479074,"RR":6.032649919922496,"stress":25.411794034436106,"buffer":0.11790596556389232,"min_equity":847.0598011478702,"entry_floor":267.6924050716828,"entry_drop_pct":7.3376007921067465,"atr_ceiling":3.3136687871755846,"atr_increase_pct":7.91863890297555,"extra_cost_bp":12.610263696672952,"normal_loss":1.987566807435353,"target_gain":11.990294741715493},{"symbol":"QQQ","size":104.34,"stop":699.14315,"target":830.4731316245595,"RR":7.3453792610693736,"stress":24.93454579612259,"buffer":0.59515420387741,"min_equity":831.1515265374196,"entry_floor":537.1751223695812,"entry_drop_pct":24.85800101141713,"atr_ceiling":10.471407609472207,"atr_increase_pct":33.08136773842556,"extra_cost_bp":57.03988919660813,"normal_loss":2.296865108829453,"target_gain":16.871345335869712},{"symbol":"EFA","size":91.5,"stop":104.93826,"target":116.97551184268325,"RR":5.832592688298649,"stress":25.447316122674685,"buffer":0.08238387732531294,"min_equity":848.2438707558229,"entry_floor":99.36846827080154,"entry_drop_pct":6.8711637574493505,"atr_ceiling":0.9458617067927328,"atr_increase_pct":7.378126941856822,"extra_cost_bp":9.003702439924766,"normal_loss":1.5107704779756304,"target_gain":8.811708843538117}]. IWM/EFA cost headroom only12.6103/9.0037bp above assumed50bp, equity floors847.0598/848.2439. These are one-at-a-time sensitivities, not limits robust to joint changes. 108 deterministic entry/ATR/equity scenarios include71 breaches; not odds. Preserve353 amounts as conditional only: recompute each trade after actual state and costs, redistribute roughlyequally within fresh fund/position/risk caps. Round notionals down to cents below calculated ceiling, never equate rounded loss with strictly-under pass. Stop actualE-2ATR, target actualE*(1+P90), horizon1–3months, profit-onlyratchet max(existing,SMA200,high20-2ATR). P90 magnitudes16.169585/12.823845/9.630283%, not hit probabilities. Counterexample joint larger gap or halt invalidates scenario. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
scenarios108
breaches71
EFA_equity_floor848.24
IWM_equity_floor847.06
EFA_cost_headroom_bp9
IWM_cost_headroom_bp12.61
joint_stress75.79
gross_target_gain37.67
normal_stop_loss5.8
06UTC refreshed fixed signal table: QQQ/IWM/EFA unchanged