Stats

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-1.0prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage15bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowtrain:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-11.942533%,DD12.061057%,N325,win28.307692%,avgwin0.391564%,avgloss0.590038%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-1.0prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage5bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowtrain:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-4.500218%,DD5.298802%,N325,win45.230769%,avgwin0.407839%,avgloss0.542390%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-0.5prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage15bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowtrain:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-28.521873%,DD28.585111%,N972,win28.497942%,avgwin0.390971%,avgloss0.541181%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-0.5prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage5bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowtrain:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-8.885486%,DD9.479429%,N972,win44.958848%,avgwin0.412245%,avgloss0.474606%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-0.25prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage15bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowtrain:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-44.786626%,DD44.835475%,N1645,win27.051672%,avgwin0.412647%,avgloss0.547584%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Frozen note1880/1882: buy observed09:30gap<=-0.25prior20ADR at09:45;1ADRstop/1.5target;half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck;15:45exit. Fullsessionsonly; costsfee1bp+slippage5bp eachside, assumednotmeasuredspreads. Exactordercashflowsverifiedagainstvectorbt; portfolioeightdailyrebalanced1/8cashsleeves, markevery15minutes, inactivecash. Windowtrain:train2017–19/holdout2020–25/recent2026throughSep9;recentnotvirginprospective. Allneighborsretained,noselection. Return-16.731663%,DD17.031097%,N1645,win43.890578%,avgwin0.414462%,avgloss0.481401%. Researchportfolioisnotwhole-share/PDTfeasibleand09:45entrynot09:50managerfill. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf . Adaptation,notoriginalstockmonthlyportfolio.

Start187.22cash;goalpositivecostedcash-onlyedge;bindingconstraintnetexpectancyandfeasibleexecution. P1 Lou/Polk/Skouras2019documentsstockmonthlycross-periodreversal,notourrule;ETFadaptationisahypothesistest. P2 Freeze8ETFs,gap<=-.5prior20ADRobserved09:30,entry09:45,1ADRstop/1.5target,half+1RthenBEatnext15mincheck,15:45exit;excludeannouncedhalf-days,missingbarsneverzero. Train2017–19,test2020–25,2026separate;cost6/16bpside;neighbors.25/1onlyrobustness. P3 Universecurrentliquidsurvivors,FXandbond/commoditydifferences,adjustedhistoryandassumedspreadsarelimitations. 2020–25holdoutunseenbythisrulebutreusedresearchera. P4 Research1/8fractionalsleevesnotwhole-share/PDTfeasible:needindependentallocationvalidationevenifprofitable;run09:50cannotassume09:45execution. Backtestbeforeanytrade;zeroapprovalpendingresults. Validity:profitabilityisnecessarynot sufficient. Counterexamplespermanentnews/centralbankshockcancontinuedecline. Sources https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

P1 query_trades(fund=quant)08:02UTCreturned3closedonly;SNOW373.046->352.93,DELL474.336->511.998,GTLB51.418->48.78. Returns-5.39236448,+7.93994131,-5.13049905%;win1/3,avgwin7.93994131%,avgloss5.26143176%,mean-.86097407%. P2 Alloperatorliquidationsbefore4–6weekhorizons,notstrategyexits;entryarrivalquotes/feebreakdownunavailable,soexecution slippageandplannedstop/targetfrequencyunmeasured. P3 Currentcontextnoopen/queuedlots,187.22fundcash;prior06auditagrees. ConclusionpointquarterKellyclipped0;N3PEADlotoutcomescannotvalidatenewETFdayruleorjustifyrecoverysize. Original ledger sourcequery_trades(fund=quant);providerreturnmathnotcausalattribution.

P1 Sep10issuerdeckp8expectsH2international>40mvsH112.6m andextendedSaudisupplythroughmid2027. P2 p22Montanainitialpowergenerationpausedforinfrastructuredelays;Phase2extensionindiscussion,notaward. P3 p26H1CFO-6.580m/capex1.239m=FCF-7.819m despite14.617mnetincome;AR/relatedAR/inventorycashuses60.641m partlyoffsetAP26.233m. TablevisuallyverifiedafterPDFtextextractionmissedimages. Conclusionnewdeckavailabilityresolvesaccessgapbutdoesnotestablishnewcollectionorvenueedge. Counterargumentfundingworkingcapitalcanprecedeprofitablegrowth;futurepaidreceiptsandmarginwouldupgradefundamentals,notborrowETFstatistics. p24June30cash4.402mnotSeptemberbalance. Source https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf (issuerlink https://ir.flotekind.com/presentations?cat=7 ). Maintainmonitor171 next12:30review;noautomaticorder.

P1 Agencycalendars confirmPPI Sep10andCPI Sep11 08:30ET;CensuswholesaleSep10 10ET;ECBmeetingSep10exacthourunverified. Calendarcertaintydoesnotgiveactualsurpriseorassetresponse. P2 Reversalmechanism fromLou/Polk/Skouras2019requirespricepressurecomponent;gapsreflectingnewfundamentalscancontinue. Firstorder:hotinflationcouldrepriceyieldsandUSD;second:higherdiscountingandFXcanmoveTLT/EFA/EEMandfinancing;third:arbitrageursandliquidityproviderscanabsorbtransitorypressure,butpermanentearningschangesneednotreverse. Beneficiariesdependonliabilitiesandpricingpower,notuniversalgapbuyer. FTKfirstordersupplyexpansioncanraiserevenue;secondrequiresworkingcapital;thirdinfrastructure/customercollectiondelayscanconsumeEBITDA. Strongcounterexamplebenigninflationorpaidnewcontracts;wouldchangecontext,notrescueunvalidatedrule. Sources https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm ; https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html ; https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html ; https://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk/research/TugOfWar.pdf ; https://ir.flotekind.com/image/Lake-Street-Investor-Presentation.pdf . Facts endatthecalendarsandissuerclaims;causalchainsarescenarios,notforecasts.

P1 Primary issuer deck page7 asofSep9 has FY27 revenue2.125–2.225bn,adjustedEBITDA305–325m,capex12–14% includingcloudimplementationandsoftware. P2 Cartesian impliedcapex255–311.5m;midpoint2175m*.13=282.75m,89.7619%of315mEBITDA. This is not reportedFCF, capexdefinition broaderthanPPE, noassumptionallrangeendpointscooccur. P3 EPS70%andEBITDA2/3weightedH2:currentbookingsnotcurrentcash. ConclusionretainfrozenAVAVEARpaperreview161 andrequireactualcollections/workingcapital/fullpubliccallbeforefundamentalupgrade. Strongcounterargumentcapacityexpansioncanmonetizefundedbacklog;that doesnotestablishentryedge. Source https://investor.avinc.com/static-files/f4f2cf5b-081f-4a73-848b-52666a7e9bcc . Metadata saysQ2FY26but actualcontentQ1FY27;useinternalperiod. No newcashclaimrelative06UTCreview.

StartQuant187.22cash/account850.99,noholdings/pending;goalrepeatablecash-onlynetedge;bindingconstraintcostedconditionalexpectancyunderfeasibleexits. P1 OriginalMcConnell/Xu2008supportsresearchquestion,notcurrentprofitguarantee. P2 Frozenlast-month-sessionopenthroughthirdnextmonthclose,ADR1stop/1.5target,half+1R/BEfollowingday:288dailycellsretained;fixedholdout568trades/71months8sleeves-4.889665%return/DD9.489252%;stress-17.480264%/DD18.465317%. Win47.359155%,avgW1.309002/avgL1.300367%,negativeexpectancy,quarterKelly0. P3 Strongcounterargument: unmanagedcalendarandtwo1.25ADRneighborsprofit;EEMunmanagedbaseCIpositivebutstresscrosses0. Sampled15minwiderEEMstress+11.749499%/EWC+.731303%,all8sampledmeanCIsinclude0;posthocexecutionauditisnotvirginholdout. P4 Dailyto15minEWCbaseturns+7.4336%to-2.0112%;overnightexits/fullshares/rawdividendpathremainunvalidated. P5 NextentrySep30,timeexitOct5;deadlinepressurecannotcompressfour-sessionwindow. ConclusionnoPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND,actualsize0. Validity: failedpredeclarededge/executiongatesimplycash. Soundnessconditionalonproviderhistory,costassumptions,currentETFsurvivors,reusedhistoricaleras;doesnotdisproveallcalendaranomalies. Evidencewouldchange: distinctprospectivecost-stressedpositiveeffectplusvalidatedexecution,notnewfitto2020–25. AVAVdeckrecovered2065/20465;retainfrozenEAR161,notETF-toeventedge. 176success/177container503retry07:15tracked,new08UTCreviewarmed;preserve15/85/42/127/171. Sources https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

P1 query_tradesfundquant06:20returns3closed,0open/pending;alloperatorliquidations. ReturnsSNOW-5.39236448%,DELL+7.93994131%,GTLB-5.13049905%;win33.333%,avgW7.939941%,avgL5.261432%,mean-.860974%. QuarterKelly0. P2 Holdsendedbefore4–6weekstatedhorizons,notnormalstop/targetoutcomes;cannotestimateplannedexitoddsororderslippagewithoutarrivalquotes. Conclusiondonotborrowthree-tradewinprobabilityforcalendarstrategyanddonotfitliquidationlossesaway. Source query_trades(fund=quant),actualvenueledger;returnsbeforeunobservedfeeattribution.

P1 AuthorMcConnell/Xu2008originaldocumentshistoricalcalendarreturns;payrollflowinterpretationremainshypothesis,notindependentlyobservedcurrentflow. P2 OurUS-listedcountryETFscombineUSDcurrency,localmarketnewsandUSsessionpricing;theyarenotexactlocalindexreplications. Firstorder: ifrecurringcasharrivalscreatespredictablebuying,arbitrageurscananticipateit. Secondorder: anticipationcanmovepricepressureearlier,changingwhichovernightreturnmatters. Thirdorder: turnover/slippageandcrowdingcanconsumeasmallcalendarpremiumwhilemarketbetaremains. Beneficiariescouldbeearlyliquidityproviders;notnecessarilylatecalendarbuyers. Counterexample: persistentinstitutionalconstraintsornewlargeflowscouldsustainanedge;requireprospectivecostedreturnsanddirectflowevidence,notcalendarcertainty. Conclusiondo notattributeobservedETFreturnstocausallyverifiedpayrollflows. Fundingdeadlineisnotasignal;next4sessionwindowendsOct5. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf .

P1 MonteCarlo20000pathsseed91006 samples3monthblocksfrom71holdoutmonthsof8ETFmeanreturns,12opportunitiesperpathwithmonthlycapitalreset. Hypothetical187.22fullyallocated;notactual8whole-sharesleeves. Base12monthP05/P50/P95USD[-15.217884,-1.408535,12.389534],loss56.995%;stress[-19.290286,-5.900868,7.624624],loss76.77%. OnefuturemonthlyhistoricaldrawstressP05/P50/P95[-3.367474,-.606303,3.601650]. P2 Nohistoricalpathcloses349.01gap;notproofimpossible,nottailbound. Twelveopportunitiesspanroughlyoneyear,not12days. P3 Dailyexitfrequencytarget31.161972%,stop56.161972%,partial39.436620%. Additional20000monthresamplesseed910062targetfractionP05/P50/P95[0,.25,.875],stop[0,.625,1],preserves8ETFjointoutcomes. P4 ActualquarterKelly0underfixednegativeexpectancy;sampledpositivewidercellpointKellydoesnotpassconfidence/executiongates. Nominalaccount1%risk8.5099/fundcap187.22/account25%212.7475;noapprovednotional. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf .

P1 Descriptiveholdoutk1regimesusepriorclose>SMA200andpriorRV20>2017–19dailytrainingmedian,neverfuturedata. BaseaboveSMA/highvolN350mean-.100963%;above/lowN50-.359228%;below/highN165+.096293%;below/lowN3+.240629%. Stressrespectively-.300561,-.558310,-.103700,+.040348%. Theonlypositivestressbucketcontains3trades/3months,notvalidfilter. P2 All8Sep9closesaboveSMA200,butSep10notTOMentry;nextSep30open..Oct5closeXNYSverified. P3 PricesSPY762.40/IWM290.64exceed187.22fundcapforoneshare;EEM68.48/EWC60.99affordablealone,notall8equalwhole-sharesleeves. Median20daydollarvolumeall>=27.09m,capacityatsleevesizeplausiblebuthistoricalspreadassumptionsremainunverified. Conclusioncombinecalendar+negativecostededge+executionconstraint=>0allocation,notbuybecauseuptrend. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf .

P1 Fixedk1daily8sleeveholdoutreturn-4.889665%,dailycloseDD9.489252%;stress-17.480264%,DD18.465317%;p47.359155%,W1.309002/L1.300367%,quarterKelly0. P2 15minaudit142EEM/EWCwindowsallregularsamplescomplete;20142returnedbarsincludesoffhoursdiscarded. EWCbasek1daily+7.433615% ->sampled-2.011189%;stresssampled-14.982837%,sampledDD19.506353%;changesincludeopenfeedandpartial/BEtiming,notpuretimingeffect. EEMsampledbase+8.098928% butstress-6.211087%. P3 Widerk1.25sampledEEMstress+11.749499%CI[-.205506,.536073]%mean;EWC+.731303%CI[-.374250,.408320]%;bothinconclusiveposthocdiagnostics. P4 Dailyworstbase-4.449477R;15minEEM1.25stressworst-2.677826R. Nominalstopdoesnotboundlossat1R;fullshare/overnightquotesnotvalidated. Conclusionretaincash,nochangefromfailedfixedrule. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf .

P1 Fixed8ETF2020–25holdout568tradesare71sharedmonths;meantradecorrelationcalendar.7851/swing.6067. P2 Calendarpooledmean+.314209%baseCI[-.175992,.778329]%,stress+.113780%CI[-.369358,.576591]%;matchedsessions10–13advantage+.607433%CI[-.082291,1.273104]%. P3 Swingmean-.064592%baseCI[-.368358,.234912]%;stress-.264263%CI[-.568733,.034432]%. 20000circular3monthblockresamplesseed91006,preserveETFdependence. P4 HAC5lagdailycloseTOMregressions1508sessions:SPYincrement+.004056%t.05297;EEM+.119247%t1.4421;all8CIsinclude0. StrongestcounterexampleEEMunmanagedbase+.638174%meanCI[.058044,1.252755]% butstressCI[-.144644,1.043289]%;unmanagedexitsnotvenueplan. Conclusion chronologicalholdoutdoesnotestablishrobusttradablecalendaralpha;historicaleraalreadyreusedacrossresearch. No refit/promoteprofitablecells. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://business.purdue.edu/faculty/mcconnell/publications/Equity-Returns-at-the-Turn-of-the-Month.pdf .

Posthocexecutionaudit,notselectionholdout:71calendarwindows2020–25,noera-crossingDec2025. Lastsessionmonth09:30baropenentry,regularcompleted15minbarclosechecksplusnextsessionopen;prior20ADRstopk,target1.5R,+1Rhalfsale/BEimmediatelyaftercheck,timeexitfourthsessionclose. Fractions;slippage15bp+fee1bp/side. All142EEM/EWCwindowscompletecalendarexpectedregularbars;20142returnedincludeoffhoursdiscarded. Maxdaily-vs15minopen.194477%;differencesreflectbothfeedopensandexitrules. Overnightchecks/unobservedquotes/fullsharesunvalidated. 3monthcircularbootstrap20000draws seed910061. {"sampled_path_dd_pct":-11.036248442056706,"symbol":"EWC","k":1.25,"cost":16,"return_pct":0.731303207559808,"trade_boundary_dd_pct":-10.0586758557471,"sample":71,"win_rate":53.52112676056338,"avg_win_pct":1.3333842639233562,"avg_loss_pct":1.48333946001032,"mean_pct":0.024202814771084175,"ci_pct":[-0.3742495685473876,0.40832029280842774],"quarter_kelly":0.0045378544328754655,"exit_counts":{"time":27,"stop":26,"target":18},"partial_count":31,"worst_R":-1.712460024833221} PositivepointKellyisnotapprovedallocation;allmeanCIsincludezero. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

Posthocexecutionaudit,notselectionholdout:71calendarwindows2020–25,noera-crossingDec2025. Lastsessionmonth09:30baropenentry,regularcompleted15minbarclosechecksplusnextsessionopen;prior20ADRstopk,target1.5R,+1Rhalfsale/BEimmediatelyaftercheck,timeexitfourthsessionclose. Fractions;slippage5bp+fee1bp/side. All142EEM/EWCwindowscompletecalendarexpectedregularbars;20142returnedincludeoffhoursdiscarded. Maxdaily-vs15minopen.194477%;differencesreflectbothfeedopensandexitrules. Overnightchecks/unobservedquotes/fullsharesunvalidated. 3monthcircularbootstrap20000draws seed910061. {"sampled_path_dd_pct":-10.538762066419006,"symbol":"EWC","k":1.25,"cost":6,"return_pct":16.100565713895598,"trade_boundary_dd_pct":-7.732811097044944,"sample":71,"win_rate":59.154929577464785,"avg_win_pct":1.3981812535322533,"avg_loss_pct":1.4754326783287066,"mean_pct":0.22445161939186103,"ci_pct":[-0.1625949845379823,0.608761952203776],"quarter_kelly":0.04013278300378163,"exit_counts":{"time":27,"stop":26,"target":18},"partial_count":31,"worst_R":-1.5828537945454906} PositivepointKellyisnotapprovedallocation;allmeanCIsincludezero. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

Posthocexecutionaudit,notselectionholdout:71calendarwindows2020–25,noera-crossingDec2025. Lastsessionmonth09:30baropenentry,regularcompleted15minbarclosechecksplusnextsessionopen;prior20ADRstopk,target1.5R,+1Rhalfsale/BEimmediatelyaftercheck,timeexitfourthsessionclose. Fractions;slippage15bp+fee1bp/side. All142EEM/EWCwindowscompletecalendarexpectedregularbars;20142returnedincludeoffhoursdiscarded. Maxdaily-vs15minopen.194477%;differencesreflectbothfeedopensandexitrules. Overnightchecks/unobservedquotes/fullsharesunvalidated. 3monthcircularbootstrap20000draws seed910061. {"sampled_path_dd_pct":-19.50635297128358,"symbol":"EWC","k":1,"cost":16,"return_pct":-14.982837497701363,"trade_boundary_dd_pct":-18.30386074572081,"sample":71,"win_rate":45.07042253521127,"avg_win_pct":1.142786732605646,"avg_loss_pct":1.3335592961799254,"mean_pct":-0.21745967757234377,"ci_pct":[-0.5674262185206318,0.13189854356204259],"quarter_kelly":0,"exit_counts":{"stop":36,"target":19,"time":16},"partial_count":31,"worst_R":-2.059675260339765} PositivepointKellyisnotapprovedallocation;allmeanCIsincludezero. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

Posthocexecutionaudit,notselectionholdout:71calendarwindows2020–25,noera-crossingDec2025. Lastsessionmonth09:30baropenentry,regularcompleted15minbarclosechecksplusnextsessionopen;prior20ADRstopk,target1.5R,+1Rhalfsale/BEimmediatelyaftercheck,timeexitfourthsessionclose. Fractions;slippage5bp+fee1bp/side. All142EEM/EWCwindowscompletecalendarexpectedregularbars;20142returnedincludeoffhoursdiscarded. Maxdaily-vs15minopen.194477%;differencesreflectbothfeedopensandexitrules. Overnightchecks/unobservedquotes/fullsharesunvalidated. 3monthcircularbootstrap20000draws seed910061. {"sampled_path_dd_pct":-12.838498573602964,"symbol":"EWC","k":1,"cost":6,"return_pct":-2.011188701008637,"trade_boundary_dd_pct":-11.137984920955745,"sample":71,"win_rate":52.112676056338024,"avg_win_pct":1.1784054189179443,"avg_loss_pct":1.3193330273426738,"mean_pct":-0.017694682108267062,"ci_pct":[-0.3722854696034422,0.33293964657059455],"quarter_kelly":0,"exit_counts":{"stop":36,"target":19,"time":16},"partial_count":31,"worst_R":-1.9785672431818633} PositivepointKellyisnotapprovedallocation;allmeanCIsincludezero. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

Posthocexecutionaudit,notselectionholdout:71calendarwindows2020–25,noera-crossingDec2025. Lastsessionmonth09:30baropenentry,regularcompleted15minbarclosechecksplusnextsessionopen;prior20ADRstopk,target1.5R,+1Rhalfsale/BEimmediatelyaftercheck,timeexitfourthsessionclose. Fractions;slippage15bp+fee1bp/side. All142EEM/EWCwindowscompletecalendarexpectedregularbars;20142returnedincludeoffhoursdiscarded. Maxdaily-vs15minopen.194477%;differencesreflectbothfeedopensandexitrules. Overnightchecks/unobservedquotes/fullsharesunvalidated. 3monthcircularbootstrap20000draws seed910061. {"sampled_path_dd_pct":-10.213589319806216,"symbol":"EEM","k":1.25,"cost":16,"return_pct":11.74949930539344,"trade_boundary_dd_pct":-9.147909398224641,"sample":71,"win_rate":57.74647887323944,"avg_win_pct":1.4258128667251548,"avg_loss_pct":1.5461538546286198,"mean_pct":0.17005228023764454,"ci_pct":[-0.20550552816317652,0.5360726020018001],"quarter_kelly":0.02981672493744307,"exit_counts":{"target":32,"stop":26,"time":13},"partial_count":29,"worst_R":-2.677825863447661} PositivepointKellyisnotapprovedallocation;allmeanCIsincludezero. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

Posthocexecutionaudit,notselectionholdout:71calendarwindows2020–25,noera-crossingDec2025. Lastsessionmonth09:30baropenentry,regularcompleted15minbarclosechecksplusnextsessionopen;prior20ADRstopk,target1.5R,+1Rhalfsale/BEimmediatelyaftercheck,timeexitfourthsessionclose. Fractions;slippage5bp+fee1bp/side. All142EEM/EWCwindowscompletecalendarexpectedregularbars;20142returnedincludeoffhoursdiscarded. Maxdaily-vs15minopen.194477%;differencesreflectbothfeedopensandexitrules. Overnightchecks/unobservedquotes/fullsharesunvalidated. 3monthcircularbootstrap20000draws seed910061. {"sampled_path_dd_pct":-8.947737914635523,"symbol":"EEM","k":1.25,"cost":6,"return_pct":28.79988319884099,"trade_boundary_dd_pct":-7.835224554644926,"sample":71,"win_rate":60.56338028169014,"avg_win_pct":1.5602493334124181,"avg_loss_pct":1.456379033598941,"mean_pct":0.3705930759994878,"ci_pct":[-0.007997453801372813,0.7341548971608365],"quarter_kelly":0.05938042530499986,"exit_counts":{"target":32,"stop":26,"time":13},"partial_count":29,"worst_R":-2.4920262510590905} PositivepointKellyisnotapprovedallocation;allmeanCIsincludezero. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .

Posthocexecutionaudit,notselectionholdout:71calendarwindows2020–25,noera-crossingDec2025. Lastsessionmonth09:30baropenentry,regularcompleted15minbarclosechecksplusnextsessionopen;prior20ADRstopk,target1.5R,+1Rhalfsale/BEimmediatelyaftercheck,timeexitfourthsessionclose. Fractions;slippage15bp+fee1bp/side. All142EEM/EWCwindowscompletecalendarexpectedregularbars;20142returnedincludeoffhoursdiscarded. Maxdaily-vs15minopen.194477%;differencesreflectbothfeedopensandexitrules. Overnightchecks/unobservedquotes/fullsharesunvalidated. 3monthcircularbootstrap20000draws seed910061. {"sampled_path_dd_pct":-14.008702759982338,"symbol":"EEM","k":1,"cost":16,"return_pct":-6.211086763109497,"trade_boundary_dd_pct":-12.747454825237469,"sample":71,"win_rate":46.478873239436616,"avg_win_pct":1.3111627819843032,"avg_loss_pct":1.286022695570507,"mean_pct":-0.0788801496647505,"ci_pct":[-0.40082561254085897,0.2513554320696863],"quarter_kelly":0,"exit_counts":{"stop":36,"target":27,"time":8},"partial_count":25,"worst_R":-1.8870486703626628} PositivepointKellyisnotapprovedallocation;allmeanCIsincludezero. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all&timeframe=15Min .