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1149 analyses, newest first
QLV90802 international candidates: Allianz insurance risk and Shopify cash growth
FundamentalwatchQuant replicationALV.DE, SHOP2026-09-08 02:20
1. Preset29-name international sample yields28price series; raw local-currency closing returns are not USD totalreturns. ALV.DE low-vol leader: Sep4 EUR450.60,63dayvol12.0721%,momentum19.2379%; German lastavailableSep4 is not asserted currentSep7close. Aug7 issuer Q2 operatingprofit4.9bnEUR+10.6%, but coreincome2.6bn-12.7% reflects divestment comparison; underlying growth10% is management adjustment. P&C combinedratio91.9% versus91.2% worsens even as profit grows; solvency225% based on quarterly accrual, annualdividend accrual would subtract7points. https://www.allianz.com/en/mediacenter/news/media-releases/financials/260807-2q-2026-earnings-release.html . 2. SHOP.TO momentum leader+31.3960%,vol58.2366%,CAD200.76 Sep4. Aug5issuer Q2 revenue3583mUSDvs2680,OCF658-capex4=FCF654,18%margin; grossprofit1708,operating488. Q3revenuegrowth low30s versus grossprofit mid-high20s and150mSBC guidance means growth and dilution/mix warrant joint assessment. https://www.shopify.com/investors/press-releases/shopify-delivers-big-30-growth-across-gmv-revenue-gross-profit . 3. Both statements are public month-old issuer claims, not a fresh surprise. Currency/venue eligibility and independent strategy validation unresolved; local listing plus US listing are same issuer, not independent signals. Conclusion retain research watch, allocation0. Strongest counterargument is genuine cash growth; evidence that would change eligibility is prospectively validated net price-rule performance, not a larger headline growth number.
international valid28
ALV vol12.07
ALV momentum19.24
ALV solvency225
ALV combined ratio91.9
SHOP momentum31.4
SHOP vol58.24
SHOP revenue m3583
SHOP CFO m658
SHOP capex m4
SHOP FCF m654
actual allocation0
QLV90802 defensive US leaders: business quality does not validate a swing
FundamentalwatchQuant replicationBRK.B, O2026-09-08 02:20
1. Final US screen ranks BRK.B lowest volatility among positive-momentum, non-ETF names in the 600-name panel: 63-day vol14.6672%, return3.6671%, Sep4price506.03. Aug8 issuer Q2 release reports operating earnings12983m vs11160m (+16.34%), while underwriting1731m vs1992m and investment income3059m vs3367m decline. Investment marks explain much of GAAP net25667m. Insurance float177.5bn is a liability-backed funding structure, not risk-free cash. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312526344495/d159922dex991.htm . One whole BRK.B share exceeds212.7475positioncap; fractional purchase still requires independent netedge. 2. O: Sep4price61.25,vol17.579%,momentum1.981%,below100dayMA62.0381. IssuerQ2 AFFO/share1.09 vs1.05, FYguide4.44-4.45raised, but GAAPEPS1.59-1.60lowered; occupancy98.8% vs98.9%March/98.6%prior-year. ForwardAFFO multiple13.7795 versus GAAP38.4013 reflects definitions, not arbitrage. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726728/000072672826000044/o-991q22026.htm . 3. Binding constraint is validated implementable payoff, not liquidity: median20day traded dollars BRK.B2.158bn/O293.6m far exceed book245.69. Positive operations support watch status but no identified near-term mispricing, own issuer claims not independent corroboration. Counterexample: durable businesses can appreciate while we holdcash; that does not establish monthly ATR-entry expectancy. Conclusion no proposal; source dates and contradictory components retained, zero probability calibration imported from quality labels.
BRK vol pct14.67
BRK momentum pct3.67
BRK operating earnings m12983
BRK underwriting m1731
O price61.25
O AFFO midpoint4.45
O AFFO multiple13.78
O occupancy98.8
O MA10062.04
position cap212.75
actual allocation0
QLV90802 broad US, international and crypto census with explicit exclusions
StatisticalwatchQuant replication2026-09-08 02:15
Premises:1.NasdaqTrader primary nasdaqlisted+otherlisted files stamped0904202621:31, retrievedSep8, enumerate13155unique non-testissues. SymbolNA preserved as text. 384unsupportedformats(mainly$preferrednotation)excludedwithnamedrows;12771standardformatsrequested,12682returnSep4dailySIPbars,89no-return. InitialSIPsnapshots403,thenhistoricalbatchesfailedbecauseABR$D poisoned400symbolrequests;repairedformatfilter gives0batcherrors.2.Completeddayclose>=5,price*volume>=10m andsecuritydescriptionfilter yields3261. Boundedhistorytop600bydollarvolume plusfixedETFs=605requested;600have>=100observations;5short-history excluded. Cached1019symbols includespartialpass414extras,NOT1019finalranked. Derive63sessionmomentum/annualvol,20daymedianprice*volume,ATR14/MA100;100observationminimum andliquidity10m. All600rows recorded100packedobservations;partial594rows retainedasdiagnosticonly.3.29prelistednonUScandidates,28returned andROG.SWmissing;localcurrency63daysimpleprice returns notFXconverted/totalreturn,datesSep4/7,notallnonUSlistings.4.Alpaca supporttable36USDpairs,all36dailyseriesreturned;stablecoinsseparatefromdirectionaledge. Venuevolumeisnotglobalvolume.5.Currentcensus excludesdelistedhistory andselectsrecentliquidity;noneoftheseranksbackfilledasunbiasedstrategy. Original allUSrequest is listingfiltercoverage,notcompletepricehistoryforeverylisting. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars https://alpaca.markets/support/what-cryptocurrencies-does-alpaca-currently-support https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ . Conclusionwatchranksonly,0validatedentries;missingformats/delistings/FX/venueandlimit600namedgaps.
US census13155
format excluded384
US requested12771
US returned12682
missing bars89
liquidity passed3261
final ranked600
short history excluded5
international requested29
international returned28
USD crypto pairs36
actual allocation0
QLV90802 EEMV holdout 10-session half-profit stress
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.55e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.768018,-0.193765]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-15.92
drawdown17.05
win rate36.11
sample36
average win0.48
average loss1.02
mean-0.48
mean CI low-0.77
mean CI high-0.19
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp20
actual size0
QLV90802 EEMV holdout 10-session fixed-exit stress
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.80e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.879100,-0.205256]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-18.01
drawdown18.96
win rate38.89
sample36
average win0.68
average loss1.32
mean-0.54
mean CI low-0.88
mean CI high-0.21
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp20
actual size0
QLV90802 EEMV recent 10-session half-profit base
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEEMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 1.01e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.840583,1.131843]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return1.09
drawdown4.52
win rate71.43
sample7
average win0.97
average loss1.85
mean0.16
mean CI low-0.84
mean CI high1.13
quarter Kelly0.04
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EEMV holdout 10-session half-profit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.92e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.469122,0.117191]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-6.33
drawdown10.53
win rate55.56
sample36
average win0.57
average loss1.11
mean-0.18
mean CI low-0.47
mean CI high0.12
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EEMV train 10-session half-profit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.55e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.566171,0.097840]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-7.38
drawdown12.63
win rate53.13
sample32
average win0.59
average loss1.17
mean-0.23
mean CI low-0.57
mean CI high0.1
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EEMV recent 10-session fixed-exit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 6.53e-14 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-1.591759,1.210684]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-1.12
drawdown5.59
win rate57.14
sample7
average win1.42
average loss2.23
mean-0.14
mean CI low-1.59
mean CI high1.21
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EEMV holdout 10-session fixed-exit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 2.43e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.581388,0.097071]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-8.66
drawdown12.39
win rate38.89
sample36
average win0.98
average loss1.02
mean-0.25
mean CI low-0.58
mean CI high0.1
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EEMV train 10-session fixed-exit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.27e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.647948,0.107154]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-8.53
drawdown14.15
win rate40.63
sample32
average win0.97
average loss1.12
mean-0.27
mean CI low-0.65
mean CI high0.11
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EFAV holdout 10-session half-profit stress
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFAV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 4.69e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.849032,-0.327937]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-20.8
drawdown20.45
win rate33.33
sample39
average win0.37
average loss1.07
mean-0.59
mean CI low-0.85
mean CI high-0.33
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp20
actual size0
QLV90802 EFAV holdout 10-session fixed-exit stress
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFAV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.13e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.851523,-0.199385]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-18.78
drawdown19.18
win rate41.03
sample39
average win0.67
average loss1.36
mean-0.53
mean CI low-0.85
mean CI high-0.2
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp20
actual size0
QLV90802 EFAV recent 10-session half-profit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFAV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 2.22e-15 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-1.705693,0.823750]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-2.19
drawdown4.08
win rate50
sample6
average win1.03
average loss1.74
mean-0.36
mean CI low-1.71
mean CI high0.82
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EFAV holdout 10-session half-profit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFAV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 4.74e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.554674,-0.034357]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-10.97
drawdown11.38
win rate48.72
sample39
average win0.53
average loss1.08
mean-0.29
mean CI low-0.55
mean CI high-0.03
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EFAV train 10-session half-profit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFAV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.41e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.450050,0.041509]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-8.26
drawdown13.66
win rate43.9
sample41
average win0.61
average loss0.84
mean-0.21
mean CI low-0.45
mean CI high0.04
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EFAV recent 10-session fixed-exit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFAV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 8.44e-15 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-1.656603,1.016394]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-1.77
drawdown3.66
win rate50
sample6
average win1.18
average loss1.74
mean-0.28
mean CI low-1.66
mean CI high1.02
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EFAV holdout 10-session fixed-exit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFAV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 4.83e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.551373,0.100114]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-8.7
drawdown10.67
win rate41.03
sample39
average win0.97
average loss1.06
mean-0.23
mean CI low-0.55
mean CI high0.1
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 EFAV train 10-session fixed-exit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFAV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.84e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.507839,0.083461]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-8.6
drawdown14.53
win rate36.59
sample41
average win0.97
average loss0.9
mean-0.21
mean CI low-0.51
mean CI high0.08
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 USMV holdout 10-session half-profit stress
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationUSMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 4.19e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.895933,-0.350419]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-24.22
drawdown24.78
win rate27.27
sample44
average win0.57
average loss1.07
mean-0.62
mean CI low-0.9
mean CI high-0.35
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp20
actual size0
QLV90802 USMV holdout 10-session fixed-exit stress
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationUSMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 2.74e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.810655,-0.145435]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-19.42
drawdown20.23
win rate40.91
sample44
average win0.79
average loss1.37
mean-0.48
mean CI low-0.81
mean CI high-0.15
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp20
actual size0
QLV90802 USMV recent 10-session half-profit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationUSMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 7.77e-14 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.834121,0.226791]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-2.35
drawdown3.24
win rate42.86
sample7
average win0.46
average loss0.94
mean-0.34
mean CI low-0.83
mean CI high0.23
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 USMV holdout 10-session half-profit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationUSMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.27e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.598364,-0.048365]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-13.52
drawdown16.09
win rate45.45
sample44
average win0.59
average loss1.09
mean-0.33
mean CI low-0.6
mean CI high-0.05
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 USMV train 10-session half-profit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationUSMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.27e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.384520,0.171548]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-5.01
drawdown9.88
win rate48.89
sample45
average win0.73
average loss0.92
mean-0.11
mean CI low-0.38
mean CI high0.17
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
QLV90802 USMV recent 10-session fixed-exit base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationUSMV2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 1.15e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.717164,0.723895]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
return-0.53
drawdown3.15
win rate42.86
sample7
average win1.08
average loss0.94
mean-0.07
mean CI low-0.72
mean CI high0.72
quarter Kelly0
slippage bp5
actual size0
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