QLV90802 international candidates: Allianz insurance risk and Shopify cash growth
Fundamental watch Quant replication ALV.DE, SHOP 2026-09-08 02:20
1. Preset29-name international sample yields28price series; raw local-currency closing returns are not USD totalreturns. ALV.DE low-vol leader: Sep4 EUR450.60,63dayvol12.0721%,momentum19.2379%; German lastavailableSep4 is not asserted currentSep7close. Aug7 issuer Q2 operatingprofit4.9bnEUR+10.6%, but coreincome2.6bn-12.7% reflects divestment comparison; underlying growth10% is management adjustment. P&C combinedratio91.9% versus91.2% worsens even as profit grows; solvency225% based on quarterly accrual, annualdividend accrual would subtract7points. https://www.allianz.com/en/mediacenter/news/media-releases/financials/260807-2q-2026-earnings-release.html . 2. SHOP.TO momentum leader+31.3960%,vol58.2366%,CAD200.76 Sep4. Aug5issuer Q2 revenue3583mUSDvs2680,OCF658-capex4=FCF654,18%margin; grossprofit1708,operating488. Q3revenuegrowth low30s versus grossprofit mid-high20s and150mSBC guidance means growth and dilution/mix warrant joint assessment. https://www.shopify.com/investors/press-releases/shopify-delivers-big-30-growth-across-gmv-revenue-gross-profit . 3. Both statements are public month-old issuer claims, not a fresh surprise. Currency/venue eligibility and independent strategy validation unresolved; local listing plus US listing are same issuer, not independent signals. Conclusion retain research watch, allocation0. Strongest counterargument is genuine cash growth; evidence that would change eligibility is prospectively validated net price-rule performance, not a larger headline growth number.
More international valid 28
ALV vol 12.07
ALV momentum 19.24
ALV solvency 225
ALV combined ratio 91.9
SHOP momentum 31.4
SHOP vol 58.24
SHOP revenue m 3583
SHOP CFO m 658
SHOP capex m 4
SHOP FCF m 654
actual allocation 0
QLV90802 defensive US leaders: business quality does not validate a swing
Fundamental watch Quant replication BRK.B, O 2026-09-08 02:20
1. Final US screen ranks BRK.B lowest volatility among positive-momentum, non-ETF names in the 600-name panel: 63-day vol14.6672%, return3.6671%, Sep4price506.03. Aug8 issuer Q2 release reports operating earnings12983m vs11160m (+16.34%), while underwriting1731m vs1992m and investment income3059m vs3367m decline. Investment marks explain much of GAAP net25667m. Insurance float177.5bn is a liability-backed funding structure, not risk-free cash. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312526344495/d159922dex991.htm . One whole BRK.B share exceeds212.7475positioncap; fractional purchase still requires independent netedge. 2. O: Sep4price61.25,vol17.579%,momentum1.981%,below100dayMA62.0381. IssuerQ2 AFFO/share1.09 vs1.05, FYguide4.44-4.45raised, but GAAPEPS1.59-1.60lowered; occupancy98.8% vs98.9%March/98.6%prior-year. ForwardAFFO multiple13.7795 versus GAAP38.4013 reflects definitions, not arbitrage. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/726728/000072672826000044/o-991q22026.htm . 3. Binding constraint is validated implementable payoff, not liquidity: median20day traded dollars BRK.B2.158bn/O293.6m far exceed book245.69. Positive operations support watch status but no identified near-term mispricing, own issuer claims not independent corroboration. Counterexample: durable businesses can appreciate while we holdcash; that does not establish monthly ATR-entry expectancy. Conclusion no proposal; source dates and contradictory components retained, zero probability calibration imported from quality labels.
More BRK vol pct 14.67
BRK momentum pct 3.67
BRK operating earnings m 12983
BRK underwriting m 1731
O price 61.25
O AFFO midpoint 4.45
O AFFO multiple 13.78
O occupancy 98.8
O MA100 62.04
position cap 212.75
actual allocation 0
QLV90802 broad US, international and crypto census with explicit exclusions
Statistical watch Quant replication 2026-09-08 02:15
Premises:1.NasdaqTrader primary nasdaqlisted+otherlisted files stamped0904202621:31, retrievedSep8, enumerate13155unique non-testissues. SymbolNA preserved as text. 384unsupportedformats(mainly$preferrednotation)excludedwithnamedrows;12771standardformatsrequested,12682returnSep4dailySIPbars,89no-return. InitialSIPsnapshots403,thenhistoricalbatchesfailedbecauseABR$D poisoned400symbolrequests;repairedformatfilter gives0batcherrors.2.Completeddayclose>=5,price*volume>=10m andsecuritydescriptionfilter yields3261. Boundedhistorytop600bydollarvolume plusfixedETFs=605requested;600have>=100observations;5short-history excluded. Cached1019symbols includespartialpass414extras,NOT1019finalranked. Derive63sessionmomentum/annualvol,20daymedianprice*volume,ATR14/MA100;100observationminimum andliquidity10m. All600rows recorded100packedobservations;partial594rows retainedasdiagnosticonly.3.29prelistednonUScandidates,28returned andROG.SWmissing;localcurrency63daysimpleprice returns notFXconverted/totalreturn,datesSep4/7,notallnonUSlistings.4.Alpaca supporttable36USDpairs,all36dailyseriesreturned;stablecoinsseparatefromdirectionaledge. Venuevolumeisnotglobalvolume.5.Currentcensus excludesdelistedhistory andselectsrecentliquidity;noneoftheseranksbackfilledasunbiasedstrategy. Original allUSrequest is listingfiltercoverage,notcompletepricehistoryforeverylisting. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars https://alpaca.markets/support/what-cryptocurrencies-does-alpaca-currently-support https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ . Conclusionwatchranksonly,0validatedentries;missingformats/delistings/FX/venueandlimit600namedgaps.
More US census 13155
format excluded 384
US requested 12771
US returned 12682
missing bars 89
liquidity passed 3261
final ranked 600
short history excluded 5
international requested 29
international returned 28
USD crypto pairs 36
actual allocation 0
QLV90802 EEMV holdout 10-session half-profit stress
Backtests reject Quant replication EEMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.55e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.768018,-0.193765]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -15.92
drawdown 17.05
win rate 36.11
sample 36
average win 0.48
average loss 1.02
mean -0.48
mean CI low -0.77
mean CI high -0.19
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 20
actual size 0
QLV90802 EEMV holdout 10-session fixed-exit stress
Backtests reject Quant replication EEMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.80e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.879100,-0.205256]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -18.01
drawdown 18.96
win rate 38.89
sample 36
average win 0.68
average loss 1.32
mean -0.54
mean CI low -0.88
mean CI high -0.21
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 20
actual size 0
QLV90802 EEMV recent 10-session half-profit base
Backtests inconclusive Quant replication EEMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 1.01e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.840583,1.131843]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return 1.09
drawdown 4.52
win rate 71.43
sample 7
average win 0.97
average loss 1.85
mean 0.16
mean CI low -0.84
mean CI high 1.13
quarter Kelly 0.04
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EEMV holdout 10-session half-profit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EEMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.92e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.469122,0.117191]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -6.33
drawdown 10.53
win rate 55.56
sample 36
average win 0.57
average loss 1.11
mean -0.18
mean CI low -0.47
mean CI high 0.12
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EEMV train 10-session half-profit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EEMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.55e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.566171,0.097840]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -7.38
drawdown 12.63
win rate 53.13
sample 32
average win 0.59
average loss 1.17
mean -0.23
mean CI low -0.57
mean CI high 0.1
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EEMV recent 10-session fixed-exit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EEMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 6.53e-14 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-1.591759,1.210684]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -1.12
drawdown 5.59
win rate 57.14
sample 7
average win 1.42
average loss 2.23
mean -0.14
mean CI low -1.59
mean CI high 1.21
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EEMV holdout 10-session fixed-exit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EEMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 2.43e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.581388,0.097071]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -8.66
drawdown 12.39
win rate 38.89
sample 36
average win 0.98
average loss 1.02
mean -0.25
mean CI low -0.58
mean CI high 0.1
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EEMV train 10-session fixed-exit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EEMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.27e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.647948,0.107154]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -8.53
drawdown 14.15
win rate 40.63
sample 32
average win 0.97
average loss 1.12
mean -0.27
mean CI low -0.65
mean CI high 0.11
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EFAV holdout 10-session half-profit stress
Backtests reject Quant replication EFAV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 4.69e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.849032,-0.327937]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -20.8
drawdown 20.45
win rate 33.33
sample 39
average win 0.37
average loss 1.07
mean -0.59
mean CI low -0.85
mean CI high -0.33
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 20
actual size 0
QLV90802 EFAV holdout 10-session fixed-exit stress
Backtests reject Quant replication EFAV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.13e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.851523,-0.199385]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -18.78
drawdown 19.18
win rate 41.03
sample 39
average win 0.67
average loss 1.36
mean -0.53
mean CI low -0.85
mean CI high -0.2
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 20
actual size 0
QLV90802 EFAV recent 10-session half-profit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EFAV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 2.22e-15 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-1.705693,0.823750]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -2.19
drawdown 4.08
win rate 50
sample 6
average win 1.03
average loss 1.74
mean -0.36
mean CI low -1.71
mean CI high 0.82
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EFAV holdout 10-session half-profit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EFAV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 4.74e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.554674,-0.034357]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -10.97
drawdown 11.38
win rate 48.72
sample 39
average win 0.53
average loss 1.08
mean -0.29
mean CI low -0.55
mean CI high -0.03
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EFAV train 10-session half-profit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EFAV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.41e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.450050,0.041509]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -8.26
drawdown 13.66
win rate 43.9
sample 41
average win 0.61
average loss 0.84
mean -0.21
mean CI low -0.45
mean CI high 0.04
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EFAV recent 10-session fixed-exit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EFAV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 8.44e-15 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-1.656603,1.016394]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -1.77
drawdown 3.66
win rate 50
sample 6
average win 1.18
average loss 1.74
mean -0.28
mean CI low -1.66
mean CI high 1.02
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EFAV holdout 10-session fixed-exit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EFAV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 4.83e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.551373,0.100114]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -8.7
drawdown 10.67
win rate 41.03
sample 39
average win 0.97
average loss 1.06
mean -0.23
mean CI low -0.55
mean CI high 0.1
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 EFAV train 10-session fixed-exit base
Backtests reject Quant replication EFAV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.84e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.507839,0.083461]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -8.6
drawdown 14.53
win rate 36.59
sample 41
average win 0.97
average loss 0.9
mean -0.21
mean CI low -0.51
mean CI high 0.08
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 USMV holdout 10-session half-profit stress
Backtests reject Quant replication USMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 4.19e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.895933,-0.350419]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -24.22
drawdown 24.78
win rate 27.27
sample 44
average win 0.57
average loss 1.07
mean -0.62
mean CI low -0.9
mean CI high -0.35
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 20
actual size 0
QLV90802 USMV holdout 10-session fixed-exit stress
Backtests reject Quant replication USMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+20bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 2.74e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.810655,-0.145435]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -19.42
drawdown 20.23
win rate 40.91
sample 44
average win 0.79
average loss 1.37
mean -0.48
mean CI low -0.81
mean CI high -0.15
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 20
actual size 0
QLV90802 USMV recent 10-session half-profit base
Backtests reject Quant replication USMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 7.77e-14 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.834121,0.226791]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -2.35
drawdown 3.24
win rate 42.86
sample 7
average win 0.46
average loss 0.94
mean -0.34
mean CI low -0.83
mean CI high 0.23
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 USMV holdout 10-session half-profit base
Backtests reject Quant replication USMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.27e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.598364,-0.048365]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -13.52
drawdown 16.09
win rate 45.45
sample 44
average win 0.59
average loss 1.09
mean -0.33
mean CI low -0.6
mean CI high -0.05
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 USMV train 10-session half-profit base
Backtests reject Quant replication USMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. At+1ATR sellhalf thenstopbreakeven; adverse samebar ordering. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 3.27e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.384520,0.171548]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -5.01
drawdown 9.88
win rate 48.89
sample 45
average win 0.73
average loss 0.92
mean -0.11
mean CI low -0.38
mean CI high 0.17
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0
QLV90802 USMV recent 10-session fixed-exit base
Backtests reject Quant replication USMV 2026-09-08 02:14
Frozen note877. 2016-20 training (2013-15 unavailable),2021-25 new-rule holdout but historically inspected market period,2026 completed cohorts only. Monthly firstsessionopen following priormonthclose>100dayMA; previousbar ATR14 stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,timeexit10thsessionclose. Unmanaged parent of swing exit comparison; no partial profit. Gapstopopen,stopfirst if ambiguous,target capped. Alladjusted SIP daily;5bpfee+5bpslippage eachfill. Fractional continuous sizing diagnostic,100initial cash,oneposition, no leverage. Vectorbt exactfill reconstruction agrees independentcompounding within 1.15e-13 percentagepoints. Drawdown uses synthetic perdayfill/close slots,not actual15minpath; positions normalizedfullallocation for comparison,not proposal. IIDtrade bootstrap10000seed90802,95% mean interval [-0.717164,0.723895]%. Historical p/W/L sizing only; failuresin training/holdout keepactual0 evenpositive2026counterexample. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; authorpaper https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~afrazzin/pdf/Betting%20Against%20Beta%20-%20Frazzini%20and%20Pedersen.pdf . Not exactleveragedBAB. Full252metricsobservationsQLV90802metrics;deterministicstudy.py/ledgers local.
More return -0.53
drawdown 3.15
win rate 42.86
sample 7
average win 1.08
average loss 0.94
mean -0.07
mean CI low -0.72
mean CI high 0.72
quarter Kelly 0
slippage bp 5
actual size 0