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1149 analyses, newest first
QSEC90808 literature-to-venue transfer and frozen validation
StrategiesinconclusiveQuant replicationXLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY2026-09-08 08:06
Premises:1.Moskowitz/Grinblatt1999 primary paper reads 20value-weightedindustries/equalweighttop3minusbottom3 and monthly overlapping holdings1963-95;TableIII6/1long1.76%monthly,spread.49%t2.35,butDGTW.12%t.63;6/6buy-middle.36% vs middle-loser.07% supports investigatinglongside.2.Ourvenuecash/245.69fund/212.7475positioncap andrequiredswingexits impose new assumptions:9establishedSPDRs,top1positive126-sessionreturn,firstmonthsessionopen,20sessionmax,1ATR14stop/1.5ATRtarget/half+1RthenBE. This is explicit adaptation, not replication of publishedprofit.3.Train2017-20,holdout2021-25,recent2026;data2016floor.108frozenparameter/cost/periodcells pernote1011.4.Drafttargetbranch fixed pernote1014 beforeacceptedmetrics to enforcepartial. Signedcash/vectorbtvaluationmustmatch. Conclusionpublication motivates testbutdoesnotprovideedge. Counterexampleoriginalshortleg/longhorizonmightcarryprofitslostwithourswings; recordparentandmanaged separately. Actualquote/15minute/whole-share/PDT/cashdividend/exactfee validation remainsbeforeanyproposal. September8isnotmonthlyfirstsession: no catch-uporder evenifhistoricalpositive. Sources https://spinup-000d1a-wp-offload-media.s3.amazonaws.com/faculty/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/09/DoIndustriesExplainMomentum.pdf ; https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Research/Journal-Article/Do-Industries-Explain-Momentum ; https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/capabilities/equities/sector-investing/select-sector-etfs ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
universe9
cells108
lookback126
holding sessions20
stop ATR1
target ATR1.5
fund cap245.69
position cap212.75
normal risk8.51
QVM90806 final decision: reject volatility-sized swing and retain quant cash
StrategiesrejectQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM2026-09-08 06:24
Completed approximately06:24UTC,23minutes after06:00:38 start; within42minuteplan/45hard limit, final journal/verification phase from06:18. Read quant notes, observations, analyses and lessons first; applied actual-exit and no-pressure sizing lessons. Read original volatility-management research and replication counterevidence. Frozen protocol965/1038;162daily results across3ETFs,3weight rules,2exit rules,3costs,3periods, plus6SPY15minute checks; all separately observed,24backtestrecords. Daily SPY RV22 managed holdout2021–25 return-7.235102%,N60. Finer barclose-check execution improves to-2.958619%,DD4.962779%,win56.666667%,unitaveragewin1.216512%,loss1.561158%;stress-10.219206%. Weighted cash-sleeve averagewin.392950%,loss.625617%,quarterKelly0. All18costed daily managed holdout cells negative. Positiveparent+32.692093% and recentfiner+1.827057%N9 preserved; neither validates required strategy. Stronger execution evidence therefore retains rejection, with exact quote/phase and fractional extended-hours limitations explicit. Own3closedtrades are operatorliquidations, no valid volatility-rule calibration; book empty245.69cash. Statistical1101,indicators1102,technical1107,consequences1111 and corrected simulation1113 record premises, counterarguments and measurements. IMPORTANT1113 supersedes15minMC in1108:NewYork session grouping replacesUTC;20k20sessionpaths base mean-.09652USD,loss43.765%,actualallocation0. Archive14990 verifiedexactreadback:279baseparts plusmandatory9partcalendarpatch;8052daily+20586active/session15bars, full-versus-sparse outcomes and daily arrays exact. Draft partial-sale sign error and calendar error fixed before final report; lessons365–369. Existing collector950 confirmedthreecompleteissuerrows, jobs8/15/68continue; noquantmonitor duebefore08UTCnextrun, noadditionalactionneeded. Sources https://amoreira2.github.io/alan-moreira.github.io/VolPortfolios_published.pdf ; https://www.lehigh.edu/~xuy219/research/COWY.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . No proposals.
return-2.96
drawdown4.96
sample60
win rate56.67
average win1.22
average loss1.56
stress return-10.22
weighted quarter Kelly0
backtest result cells168
backtest records24
quant cash245.69
actual allocation0
QVM90806 corrected New York session Monte Carlo supersedes UTC aggregation
SimulationsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:23
Supersedes15minMonteCarlo/bootstrapportionofanalysis1108;weightedpayoffsandallbacktesttradefiguresunchanged. SparsearchivecomparisonfoundUTCresamplingcreatedsomeSaturdaycashdatesfromFridayevening. Correctstudy15.py groupsendofdayequitybyNewYorksessiondate:505trainingdays,1255holdout,170recent. Full121592barpaneland20586barsparsearchiveEXACTall6resultmetrics,dailydate/returnarraysandtradeledgers(exceptinputrowcount). Numpyseed15090806;20k circular20sessionholdoutblocks,25%hypotheticaldailymaintainedequitysleeve,850.99initial,overheadexcluded. BasePnLmean-.096519592USD,p5/50/95[-2.045575015,.187208073,1.514091561],loss43.765%;stressmean-.361913952,p5/50/95[-2.628822037,0,1.082598490],loss49.25%. Bothsampledzero>=349.01gainor>=8.5099intraperiodloss,notproofzerofutureprobability. 3monthblock20kbootstrapbase95%monthlymeanCI[-.173431825,.063907263]%,stress[-.306064286,-.058199962]%. Weightedholdoutp.566667,W.392950233%,L.625616533%,quarterKelly0;actualallocation0. EarlierdailybarMCin1108unaffected. Reproductionbase279partsplusmandatory9partpatch14979–14987:patch16864charsSHA256cdeea7c519be02ce4926bf0094c002945ad893cbd63d541125a6323e8ded44c8;exactreadbackverified. Overwritebasefileswithpatchbeforeuse. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; correctedstudy15.py/diag15.py. Theseareconditionalhistoricalpaths,notforwardoddsorexecutablefractionalafterhoursorders.
holdout sessions1255
MC paths20000
base mean USD-0.1
base p5 USD-2.05
base median USD0.19
base p95 USD1.51
base loss pct43.77
stress mean USD-0.36
stress loss pct49.25
weighted Kelly0
actual allocation0
QVM90806 decision premises: cash survives the stronger execution counterexample
ConsequencesrejectQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM2026-09-08 06:19
Startstatequant245.69cash,account850.99,nopositions/pending. Goalrepeatablepositiveimplementableedge. Bindingconstraintisweightednetpayoff, not349.01fundinggap. Premises:1.FixedSPYdailyRV22managedtraining-.645289%,holdout-7.235102%,recent-1.534922%;all18costedmanagedholdoutcellsnegative.2.Finer15mincheckraisesholdoutto-2.958619%butstress-10.219206%;actualweightedquarterKelly0.3.Parentholdout+32.692093%and2026finercheck+1.827057%N9arevalidpositivecounterevidence,butparentomitsrequiredexitsandrecentcannotreplacethefailedholdout.4.SPYwhole-shareprice770.19exceeds212.7475cap;fractionalafterhoursstopmodelnotexecutable. EEMaffordabilitycannotrescueitsnegativeedge. Conclusionnoorderfollowsvalidationrequirements; validityclear,soundnessconditionalonproviderdata,pointintimecalibrationandcheckedcode. Alternativeinterpretation:dailyorderingwasoverlyadverse,trueandresolvedwithfinerdiagnostic; remaininglossstillsufficienttodecline. Return-volweightcovarianceexplainspositiveunitexpectancyversusnegativeaccountresult. Firstorder:volatilityspikeleadsreducedposition;secondorder:lossesandreboundsbothshrunkwhilepartialexitstruncatewinners;thirdorder:repeatednegativeweightedturnoverplustradingcostserodescapital. Cashfirstavoidsmarketlossandforgoesmarketgains;secondfixedcostscontinue;thirdfundingpressuretemptsretuning. ETFmanagerbenefitsfromassets,liquidityprovidersfromturnover;fundrequiresnetedge. Expected41.0122%accountgainwouldbenecessarytofillgap,butisnotforecastandcannotchangeexitdistances. Futurechangeofmindrequiresnewprespecifiedactualexitdatawithpositiveweightedcostedholdoutanduncertainty,notaposthocbeartrendfilter. Existingquantmonitorsnext12:30UTCafter08UTCnextrun;existingcollector950savedthreecompleterows. Noadditionalbetween-runactionrequiredforrejectedstrategy. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; studies1038,1101,1107,1108.
quant cash245.69
account equity850.99
funding gap349.01
daily holdout return-7.24
15min holdout return-2.96
15min stress return-10.22
costed managed failures18
recent positive return1.83
recent sample9
weighted quarter Kelly0
actual allocation0
QVM90806 weighted Kelly and Monte Carlo: allocation remains zero
SimulationsrejectQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM2026-09-08 06:17
1.PrimarydailySPYholdoutunitp.516667,W1.052604%,L1.456698%,naiveKelly0. WeightedcashsleeveW.310779%,L.588356%,Kelly0. 15minunitp.566667,W1.216512%,L1.561158%givesnaivequarterKelly.264182%butweightedW.392950%,L.625617%,weightedmean-.048429%,quarterKelly0. Do notsizefromunitreturnswhileapplyingcorrelatedvolweights.2.Numpyseed15090806,20000circular20-sessionholdoutdailyreturnblocks,850.99initialcash,25%hypotheticalequitysleeve maintaineddaily. 15minbase20sessionPnLmean-.092760USD,p5/median/p95[-2.044991,.176275,1.514092],loss42.835%;stressmean-.348726,p5/median/p95[-2.628822,0,1.082598],loss48.25%. Neitherhadpath>=349.01gainor>=8.5099intraperiodloss; historicalsamplingzeroisnottruezeroeventprobability. Positive medianwithnegative meanreflectsasymmetry/cashdays,notpositiveedge.3.3monthblockbootstrap20k,holdout60months:15minmonthlymeanCI[-.168128,.062841]%base,[-.299049,-.058098]%stress. Allfiguresrecordeddiag15observations. Priorseed90806dailybarMCSPYmanagedp5/50/95[-1.965645,.026167,1.382739],47.815%loss; parent[-4.168095,.904753,6.113137],35.855%loss;EFA/EEMsameprotocolrecordeddiagnostics.4.Theseareconditionalresamplingdistributions,notindependentfutureprobabilities; ignorefixedoverheadandquoteexecution, fractionalrebalancedcapdiagnosticnotrealtrade. Equity850.99,quant245.69,position212.7475,normalrisk8.5099;actualallocation0. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; diagnostics.py/diag15.py/weighted.py.
weighted quarter Kelly0
unit quarter Kelly pct0.26
weighted average win pct0.39
weighted average loss pct0.63
MC paths20000
MC mean USD-0.09
MC p5 USD-2.04
MC median USD0.18
MC p95 USD1.51
MC loss pct42.84
actual allocation0
QVM90806 15-minute exits narrow the loss but do not validate entry
TechnicalrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:17
Premises:1.DailyOHLCcannotresolve9ambiguoussamebarbreakevens/16entrydayexitsinthe60tradeholdout.2.Frozen15minbarcloseaudit(note970)usesSIPalladjusted2019–2026,regularandavailableextendedbars,entry09:30open,eachcompletedclosecheck. Stops/targetsexitatobservedclosewithcosts;half+1RthenBE, noaddedfilters.3.Independentreconciliationeveryfillandcashmarkexact0;8identicalboundaryduplicatesremoved,monthlyentrypricealignmentmax.0094333%versusdailyopen.4.Primaryholdout-2.958619%,DD4.962779%,N60,p56.6667%,unitW1.216512%,L1.561158%;stress-10.219206%,DD10.547214%. Base24target,26stop,10BEfinalexits;34partial,9sameday. Training+.623063%butstress-2.523281%;recent+1.827057%,stress+.388358%,N9 retainedcounterexample. Conclusionnegativeholdoutpersists,notjustconservative dailyordering. However15minbarclosesarenotexecutablequotes,exactvenuecheckphaseormissingovernightcoverage; fractionalSPYexitnotallowedextendedandwholeSPY770.19exceeds212.7475cap. Thereforediagnostic cannot be calledvenue-ready. Noactualholding/queuedorder. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; study15.py/results15.json and6separatebacktestrecords.
return-2.96
drawdown4.96
sample60
win rate56.67
stress return-10.22
target exits24
stop exits26
breakeven exits10
same day exits9
recent return1.83
max entry difference pct0.01
actual allocation0
QVM90806 volatility and trend regimes: no selected rescue
IndicatorsrejectQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM2026-09-08 06:16
FixedRV22calibrationmedian high/lowregimes,priorcloseSMA200trendlabels; nofiltersaddedafterresults. SPYmanagedholdout:highvol56trades meanunit-.154529%,lowvol4mean-.239978%;uptrend48mean-.388287%,downtrend12mean+.752018%,win75%. Positivebeartrend subsetisretainedbutN12conditional/hindsightnotaselectedrule. EFAhigh/low-.316222/-.105615%N54/6; EEM-.839896/-.181956%N25/35. Stops andtakinghalftruncatepath-dependentpayoffs; return-volcovariancecanreversegrossunitexpectancy. September4lastcompletedSPYclose770.19,ATR5.503021,RV22annual7.831061%,RV66annual13.561355%,SMA200gap8.499577%,weight22=1. EFA108.35,ATR.876064,RV22 8.966537%,RV66 14.830710%,gap7.999111%,weight1. EEM68.70,ATR.955357,RV22 17.900290%,RV66 31.401501%,gap11.799029%,weight.844278. Quietrecentvolandpositive200daytrendarenotnewmonthlyentry; September1entrywindowpassed. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; latest.json/diagnostics.json; latestfiguresobservationsseparately. NoTuesdaylateentry tested.
SPY uptrend sample48
SPY uptrend mean pct-0.39
SPY downtrend sample12
SPY downtrend mean pct0.75
SPY RV22 pct7.83
SPY RV66 pct13.56
SPY SMA200 gap pct8.5
EEM weight0.84
actual allocation0
QVM90806 variance persistence is not positive managed payoff
StatisticalrejectQuant replicationSPY, EFA, EEM2026-09-08 06:16
Premises:1.Holdout2021–25 monthlyvarianceautocorrelation SPY.302715/EFA.261939/EEM.181362 (N60each) exceeds magnitudeofpastvariance-nextreturncorrelations .066414/.071986/-.069683; returnslope HAC3t .599/.517/-.452. Varianceforecastplausibility isnotreturnedge.2.SPY RV22parentholdout+32.6921%,DD7.7314%,zero-cash-rateSharpe.9915 versusunscaled+64.3234%,DD27.8984%,Sharpe.7072. Three-monthcircularblockbootstrap20k draws,N60 givesparentmonthlymean.485719%,95%CI[.048656,.940556];pairedtiming-minusunscaledCI[-1.012717,.260920]%.Dailyregressionannualalpha2.708055%,HAC5t1.710795,beta.280150,notstrongindependentalphaevidence.3.ManagedSPYmonthlymean-.123803%,CI[-.230989,-.021702]%;alpha-1.001145%,t-2.026836versusmatchedunscaledmanaged. EFA/EEMmanagedmonthlymean-.157911/-.313683%,CIs[-.304715,-.018066]/[-.585769,-.046293].4.TrainSPYunitpayoffmean+.936173% becomesweighted-.025548%; meanweight.440289 timesunitmean=.412186%,covweight/payoff=-.437734percentagepoints. Inholdoutunitmean-.160226%,weighted-.123803%. Kellymustusetheactualweighting; publishedriskcontrolcannotcreateindependentpayoff. Soundnessconditionalonfixed3ETFpanel/shortcalibration/priorresearchreuse; block/HAC intervalsdiagnostic,notmultiple-testingadjustedorforwardprobabilities. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; QVM90806diagnostics/weighted scripts; allfiguresstored observations.
parent return32.69
managed return-7.24
parent alpha t1.71
managed alpha t-2.03
SPY variance autocorr0.3
train unit mean pct0.94
train weighted mean pct-0.03
monthly sample60
bootstrap paths20000
actual allocation0
QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check recent stress
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
Afterdailyresults executiondiagnostic frozen note970; identicalmonthly RV22 entry/sizingandATRdistances, available15minbarclose checks includingextended. Entry09:30baropen, firstavailablethresholdclose fillwithassumedfees5bp/slip20bp. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":0.3883577007847361,"drawdown":1.7058992137510942,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.8903424016897254,"L":0.9282668226251898,"K":0.023044964266495188,"partial":7,"same_day":0,"exit_counts":{"breakeven":2,"target":5,"stop":2},"reconcile":0,"fillerr":0,"rows":10880}. Everyfill andcashledger vectorbt exact; dailyvs15minmonthlyopenmaxdifference0.0094333%,8identicalyearboundaryduplicaterowsremoved. Fullrows121592 acrosswindows; gaps/15minutephase/quoteavailability/whole-sharelimits notverified. 2026partialSeptemberepisodeforcedatlastcompleteddateifneeded; allactualexits threshold. Moreaccuratesamplingdoesnotrescueholdout; positive2026retainedcounterexample notnewwinner.
return0.39
drawdown1.71
sample9
win rate55.56
average win0.89
average loss0.93
quarter Kelly unit0.02
weighted Kelly0.03
same day exits0
bars10880
actual allocation0
QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check recent base
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
Afterdailyresults executiondiagnostic frozen note970; identicalmonthly RV22 entry/sizingandATRdistances, available15minbarclose checks includingextended. Entry09:30baropen, firstavailablethresholdclose fillwithassumedfees5bp/slip5bp. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":1.8270568454578084,"drawdown":1.5397404286932925,"n":9,"win":77.77777777777779,"W":0.9297095772245942,"L":1.5315234845823562,"K":0.10292700704603543,"partial":7,"same_day":0,"exit_counts":{"breakeven":2,"target":5,"stop":2},"reconcile":0,"fillerr":0,"rows":10880}. Everyfill andcashledger vectorbt exact; dailyvs15minmonthlyopenmaxdifference0.0094333%,8identicalyearboundaryduplicaterowsremoved. Fullrows121592 acrosswindows; gaps/15minutephase/quoteavailability/whole-sharelimits notverified. 2026partialSeptemberepisodeforcedatlastcompleteddateifneeded; allactualexits threshold. Moreaccuratesamplingdoesnotrescueholdout; positive2026retainedcounterexample notnewwinner.
return1.83
drawdown1.54
sample9
win rate77.78
average win0.93
average loss1.53
quarter Kelly unit0.1
weighted Kelly0.12
same day exits0
bars10880
actual allocation0
QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check holdout stress
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
Afterdailyresults executiondiagnostic frozen note970; identicalmonthly RV22 entry/sizingandATRdistances, available15minbarclose checks includingextended. Entry09:30baropen, firstavailablethresholdclose fillwithassumedfees5bp/slip20bp. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-10.219205520157814,"drawdown":10.547213697120828,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.0098601271398548,"L":1.6727483053177203,"K":0,"partial":34,"same_day":9,"exit_counts":{"breakeven":10,"target":24,"stop":26},"reconcile":0,"fillerr":0,"rows":79291}. Everyfill andcashledger vectorbt exact; dailyvs15minmonthlyopenmaxdifference0.0094333%,8identicalyearboundaryduplicaterowsremoved. Fullrows121592 acrosswindows; gaps/15minutephase/quoteavailability/whole-sharelimits notverified. 2026partialSeptemberepisodeforcedatlastcompleteddateifneeded; allactualexits threshold. Moreaccuratesamplingdoesnotrescueholdout; positive2026retainedcounterexample notnewwinner.
return-10.22
drawdown10.55
sample60
win rate51.67
average win1.01
average loss1.67
quarter Kelly unit0
weighted Kelly0
same day exits9
bars79291
actual allocation0
QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check holdout base
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
Afterdailyresults executiondiagnostic frozen note970; identicalmonthly RV22 entry/sizingandATRdistances, available15minbarclose checks includingextended. Entry09:30baropen, firstavailablethresholdclose fillwithassumedfees5bp/slip5bp. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-2.958619104193694,"drawdown":4.962779156876207,"n":60,"win":56.666666666666664,"W":1.2165123619899256,"L":1.5611579357533323,"K":0.002641821277265727,"partial":34,"same_day":9,"exit_counts":{"breakeven":10,"target":24,"stop":26},"reconcile":0,"fillerr":0,"rows":79291}. Everyfill andcashledger vectorbt exact; dailyvs15minmonthlyopenmaxdifference0.0094333%,8identicalyearboundaryduplicaterowsremoved. Fullrows121592 acrosswindows; gaps/15minutephase/quoteavailability/whole-sharelimits notverified. 2026partialSeptemberepisodeforcedatlastcompleteddateifneeded; allactualexits threshold. Moreaccuratesamplingdoesnotrescueholdout; positive2026retainedcounterexample notnewwinner.
return-2.96
drawdown4.96
sample60
win rate56.67
average win1.22
average loss1.56
quarter Kelly unit0
weighted Kelly0
same day exits9
bars79291
actual allocation0
QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check train stress
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
Afterdailyresults executiondiagnostic frozen note970; identicalmonthly RV22 entry/sizingandATRdistances, available15minbarclose checks includingextended. Entry09:30baropen, firstavailablethresholdclose fillwithassumedfees5bp/slip20bp. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":-2.52328119981714,"drawdown":5.44836870040788,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.79397636973347,"L":1.26470474223988,"K":0.1079189241481956,"partial":17,"same_day":6,"exit_counts":{"breakeven":3,"target":14,"stop":7},"reconcile":0,"fillerr":0,"rows":31421}. Everyfill andcashledger vectorbt exact; dailyvs15minmonthlyopenmaxdifference0.0094333%,8identicalyearboundaryduplicaterowsremoved. Fullrows121592 acrosswindows; gaps/15minutephase/quoteavailability/whole-sharelimits notverified. 2026partialSeptemberepisodeforcedatlastcompleteddateifneeded; allactualexits threshold. Moreaccuratesamplingdoesnotrescueholdout; positive2026retainedcounterexample notnewwinner.
return-2.52
drawdown5.45
sample24
win rate66.67
average win1.79
average loss1.26
quarter Kelly unit0.11
weighted Kelly0
same day exits6
bars31421
actual allocation0
QVM90806 SPY 15-minute check train base
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationSPY2026-09-08 06:14
Afterdailyresults executiondiagnostic frozen note970; identicalmonthly RV22 entry/sizingandATRdistances, available15minbarclose checks includingextended. Entry09:30baropen, firstavailablethresholdclose fillwithassumedfees5bp/slip5bp. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . {"period":"train","cost":"base","return":0.6230632020922888,"drawdown":3.29784660349125,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.977108622265553,"L":1.1083149421567535,"K":0.1362081733705362,"partial":17,"same_day":6,"exit_counts":{"breakeven":3,"target":14,"stop":7},"reconcile":0,"fillerr":0,"rows":31421}. Everyfill andcashledger vectorbt exact; dailyvs15minmonthlyopenmaxdifference0.0094333%,8identicalyearboundaryduplicaterowsremoved. Fullrows121592 acrosswindows; gaps/15minutephase/quoteavailability/whole-sharelimits notverified. 2026partialSeptemberepisodeforcedatlastcompleteddateifneeded; allactualexits threshold. Moreaccuratesamplingdoesnotrescueholdout; positive2026retainedcounterexample notnewwinner.
return0.62
drawdown3.3
sample24
win rate70.83
average win1.98
average loss1.11
quarter Kelly unit0.14
weighted Kelly0.02
same day exits6
bars31421
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EEM inverse variance 66 managed exits
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":13.996199175251235,"drawdown":2.1118788493701746,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":2.186151540297165,"L":1.1390707902820763,"K":0.13909088697554578},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":9.800433545740827,"drawdown":3.247244029578733,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.9819836561427038,"L":1.3365948752355334,"K":0.1279103531809142},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":3.7958778097332946,"drawdown":6.224867269437451,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.7866467942134083,"L":1.4388637795631258,"K":0.0995547364564297},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-12.827759131036965,"drawdown":20.217651614645593,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":1.184189668752127,"L":1.5176856670756282,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-21.605712242719687,"drawdown":24.332136353868872,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":0.9820237059189548,"L":1.7144532789377003,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-33.141465193242716,"drawdown":33.931176308542256,"n":60,"win":43.333333333333336,"W":0.7465229633018998,"L":1.9019559992663877,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-2.6653283715368015,"drawdown":7.133349725727189,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.548491364877339,"L":3.3989410591496516,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-3.6760855283682226,"drawdown":7.320704682648338,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.3455975267092213,"L":3.5919499199183704,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-5.171608440717845,"drawdown":7.8754718172610705,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.2663493906045302,"L":2.9304682386206156,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return-21.61
drawdown24.33
sample60
win rate46.67
average win0.98
average loss1.71
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EEM inverse variance 66 20-session parent
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":20.759908670711003,"drawdown":13.872723863560088,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.9649111398957855,"L":3.6141007362267206,"K":0.10400968412734868},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":16.742182108724933,"drawdown":14.558992689267725,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.753193288396973,"L":3.8066797076381014,"K":0.09893965495150786},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":10.96615787520534,"drawdown":15.578158287147403,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.4364088683773595,"L":4.094827435071778,"K":0.09061610365135982},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":6.940974911604836,"drawdown":34.80516152307028,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.830075071595619,"L":3.3621545599316223,"K":0.010842413646468083},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-2.5211954941603665,"drawdown":37.6482998095734,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.622622625761382,"L":3.4309614768445766,"K":0.0020211412582098187},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-15.165648685999678,"drawdown":42.06206291350907,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.3122203508941164,"L":3.7202346718946724,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":18.805399117637435,"drawdown":4.498996563377656,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.925096881241085,"L":5.5159056707899445,"K":0.12931629240260448},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":17.800225354716503,"drawdown":4.58488672022238,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.713458578690741,"L":5.704684833091266,"K":0.12509597673500467},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":16.30957021028774,"drawdown":4.713364133058873,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.39679318438073,"L":5.987147067702302,"K":0.11816314032296346}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return-2.52
drawdown37.65
sample53
win rate49.06
average win3.62
average loss3.43
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EEM inverse variance 22 managed exits
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":9.293369210172164,"drawdown":2.813020455004689,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":2.1861515402971756,"L":1.1390707902820763,"K":0.13909088697554595},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":5.546758441590205,"drawdown":4.60297542989948,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.9819836561427056,"L":1.3365948752355288,"K":0.12791035318091443},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":0.16838021502336709,"drawdown":7.305630061059388,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.7866467942134232,"L":1.438863779563116,"K":0.09955473645643073},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-8.701781739229443,"drawdown":16.738764340733404,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":1.1841896687521285,"L":1.517685667075628,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-17.50085931262333,"drawdown":20.821390713008782,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":0.9820237059189574,"L":1.7144532789376998,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-29.13286399434013,"drawdown":30.129263244611117,"n":60,"win":43.333333333333336,"W":0.7465229633019028,"L":1.9019559992663895,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":0.0007806174884272821,"drawdown":5.0621265763051815,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.548491364877351,"L":3.3989410591496627,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-0.9316132170227864,"drawdown":5.172645503699869,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.345597526709222,"L":3.5919499199183837,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-2.3128813999385045,"drawdown":5.3595781796794135,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.2663493906045047,"L":2.9304682386205982,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return-17.5
drawdown20.82
sample60
win rate46.67
average win0.98
average loss1.71
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EEM inverse variance 22 20-session parent
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":17.544974889152144,"drawdown":15.162521557737064,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.964911139895788,"L":3.6141007362267183,"K":0.10400968412734873},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":13.844510891117977,"drawdown":15.777908565352893,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.7531932883969645,"L":3.8066797076380916,"K":0.09893965495150793},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":8.51317239135312,"drawdown":16.69244432293947,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.436408868377353,"L":4.094827435071767,"K":0.09061610365135996},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":14.869382552154931,"drawdown":31.029547304530823,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.830075071595614,"L":3.362154559931626,"K":0.010842413646467805},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":5.069509297110808,"drawdown":34.152681887991974,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.622622625761382,"L":3.4309614768445753,"K":0.0020211412582098742},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-8.082436742087262,"drawdown":38.57291496026926,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.312220350894119,"L":3.7202346718946684,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":16.272071677431875,"drawdown":3.259438506533352,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.9250968812410845,"L":5.5159056707899445,"K":0.12931629240260445},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":15.360114144667957,"drawdown":3.3202615828992976,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.713458578690745,"L":5.704684833091259,"K":0.12509597673500478},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":14.00664949690591,"drawdown":3.411260141865591,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.396793184380734,"L":5.987147067702319,"K":0.11816314032296332}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return5.07
drawdown34.15
sample53
win rate49.06
average win3.62
average loss3.43
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EEM unscaled managed exits
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":33.01485452718331,"drawdown":2.990121027029402,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":2.186151540297169,"L":1.1390707902820738,"K":0.13909088697554592},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":26.780957546726913,"drawdown":3.5431668457211574,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.981983656142701,"L":1.3365948752355363,"K":0.12791035318091404},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":17.973591557901592,"drawdown":6.544637716880142,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.7866467942134046,"L":1.4388637795631292,"K":0.09955473645642941},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-14.824561046512208,"drawdown":24.14651493551365,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":1.1841896687521276,"L":1.517685667075625,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-24.456154141667795,"drawdown":28.777878890509356,"n":60,"win":46.666666666666664,"W":0.9820237059189557,"L":1.7144532789376963,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-36.90048434603251,"drawdown":38.54457163964985,"n":60,"win":43.333333333333336,"W":0.746522963301898,"L":1.9019559992663864,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-1.1838184824208287,"drawdown":8.605706684606107,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.5484913648773357,"L":3.398941059149665,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-2.946595540985031,"drawdown":9.424586815096625,"n":9,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.3455975267092237,"L":3.591949919918365,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-5.5319796414421525,"drawdown":10.639306653858927,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.2663493906045231,"L":2.930468238620625,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return-24.46
drawdown28.78
sample60
win rate46.67
average win0.98
average loss1.71
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EEM unscaled 20-session parent
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEEM2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":66.03181325460493,"drawdown":13.872723863560111,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.96491113989578,"L":3.6141007362267192,"K":0.10400968412734865},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":58.884807026443895,"drawdown":14.686856458235976,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.7531932883969645,"L":3.8066797076380965,"K":0.09893965495150785},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":48.73696418618027,"drawdown":15.957004605348956,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":5.4364088683773675,"L":4.094827435071768,"K":0.0906161036513601},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":7.480388696910456,"drawdown":39.963976760586526,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.8300750715956178,"L":3.3621545599316223,"K":0.010842413646468041},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-3.329479822172654,"drawdown":42.31802072940659,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.622622625761382,"L":3.4309614768445766,"K":0.0020211412582098187},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-17.54040806162218,"drawdown":46.32301478428723,"n":53,"win":49.056603773584904,"W":3.312220350894114,"L":3.720234671894671,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":25.78931937412321,"drawdown":13.573061522960984,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.925096881241083,"L":5.515905670789934,"K":0.12931629240260456},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":23.79270753181675,"drawdown":13.8319750873097,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.71345857869074,"L":5.704684833091253,"K":0.1250959767350048},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":20.857049092442125,"drawdown":14.219021148225996,"n":8,"win":75,"W":5.3967931843807335,"L":5.9871470677023195,"K":0.1181631403229633}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return-3.33
drawdown42.32
sample53
win rate49.06
average win3.62
average loss3.43
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EFA inverse variance 66 managed exits
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":5.431621734920999,"drawdown":1.945752342192253,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.7430271246484126,"L":0.7016199308170606,"K":0.1477322200324449},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":2.496271168430675,"drawdown":3.279251418359508,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.5397446037406999,"L":0.9000180432434625,"K":0.13446177421649366},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":-1.751962996195866,"drawdown":5.965608728857741,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.320095186320498,"L":1.0618430668256271,"K":0.09963595316023491},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-0.5789261858047068,"drawdown":5.762784362382256,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.0038468067347501,"L":1.2707722720042538,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-7.77658653133556,"drawdown":9.848533390574655,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":0.8020411692102303,"L":1.4680332171998023,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-17.6018619619409,"drawdown":18.77606001077724,"n":60,"win":38.333333333333336,"W":0.6995612052335579,"L":1.3978266390857337,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-1.7436716330755608,"drawdown":5.0156874899942245,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.1950589784110888,"L":2.03597266145861,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-2.710998909742124,"drawdown":5.215482867307375,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.9928712986809246,"L":2.231704735128991,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-4.143075277649588,"drawdown":5.5929382240705205,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.690346469503819,"L":2.524570315418771,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return-7.78
drawdown9.85
sample60
win rate51.67
average win0.8
average loss1.47
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EFA inverse variance 66 20-session parent
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":10.138289656161525,"drawdown":10.844201846576063,"n":22,"win":68.18181818181817,"W":5.131949218671954,"L":3.349178294474399,"K":0.11854212418224797},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":7.296093361717126,"drawdown":10.844201836061462,"n":22,"win":68.18181818181817,"W":4.92189562634034,"L":3.5422865813215236,"K":0.1132057093082584},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":3.171737633343974,"drawdown":11.304572229051557,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":4.938876966923198,"L":3.3561051431423934,"K":0.09731563718158076},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":29.987820549036613,"drawdown":15.177527349718268,"n":53,"win":60.37735849056604,"W":3.686764448215846,"L":3.8698503108205675,"K":0.0469676108768666},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":21.70733543718464,"drawdown":16.233453045068526,"n":53,"win":58.490566037735846,"W":3.5930069277538665,"L":3.7033742637881115,"K":0.03926518976742317},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":10.272184746003932,"drawdown":19.074450255177723,"n":53,"win":58.490566037735846,"W":3.282693366998174,"L":3.991831443684101,"K":0.020035323530694538},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":9.282616155618362,"drawdown":2.201405194887951,"n":8,"win":100,"W":1.8206897886506854,"L":0,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":8.391549384029018,"drawdown":2.3236974120927734,"n":8,"win":100,"W":1.6172520976238316,"L":0,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":7.069683174374397,"drawdown":2.5068413654119714,"n":8,"win":87.5,"W":1.5302850305415348,"L":0.2091397762892847,"K":0.2144791498782241}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return21.71
drawdown16.23
sample53
win rate58.49
average win3.59
average loss3.7
quarter Kelly naive0.04
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EFA inverse variance 22 managed exits
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":3.3664807992662027,"drawdown":2.6053717609065385,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.743027124648448,"L":0.7016199308170623,"K":0.14773222003244543},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":0.5484633973574127,"drawdown":4.403821575067191,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.5397446037406948,"L":0.9000180432434585,"K":0.1344617742164937},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":-3.5329724698256126,"drawdown":7.264643254549652,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.3200951863205381,"L":1.0618430668256265,"K":0.09963595316023699},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-2.1318296351150123,"drawdown":5.3801116382481755,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.0038468067347557,"L":1.2707722720042522,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-9.178735745511258,"drawdown":10.219369124186839,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":0.8020411692102223,"L":1.468033217199808,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-18.80316314408751,"drawdown":19.513211673058308,"n":60,"win":38.333333333333336,"W":0.6995612052335601,"L":1.3978266390857392,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-0.7222548475890322,"drawdown":3.554236559464774,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.1950589784110885,"L":2.035972661458587,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-1.6783485216956828,"drawdown":3.686054713401654,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.9928712986809477,"L":2.2317047351290125,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-3.0942233525427576,"drawdown":4.1579576928534205,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.6903464695038166,"L":2.524570315418752,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return-9.18
drawdown10.22
sample60
win rate51.67
average win0.8
average loss1.47
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EFA inverse variance 22 20-session parent
BacktestsinconclusiveQuant replicationEFA2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. Timeexit20thsessionclose; notrequiredvenueexits. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":8.052277187577461,"drawdown":8.543889601525912,"n":22,"win":68.18181818181817,"W":5.131949218671869,"L":3.3491782944744024,"K":0.11854212418224705},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":5.360824886468363,"drawdown":8.885781576170338,"n":22,"win":68.18181818181817,"W":4.9218956263403175,"L":3.5422865813215125,"K":0.11320570930825832},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":1.4510110065966142,"drawdown":10.47093229295032,"n":22,"win":63.63636363636363,"W":4.938876966923131,"L":3.3561051431423934,"K":0.09731563718157991},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":22.448298658629984,"drawdown":15.674714972099624,"n":53,"win":60.37735849056604,"W":3.6867644482158424,"L":3.869850310820565,"K":0.04696761087686657},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":14.617314375925062,"drawdown":17.510830506263208,"n":53,"win":58.490566037735846,"W":3.5930069277538674,"L":3.7033742637881173,"K":0.039265189767423034},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":3.8064447384475564,"drawdown":20.18802823834045,"n":53,"win":58.490566037735846,"W":3.2826933669981657,"L":3.9918314436841005,"K":0.020035323530694232},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":9.059353593594576,"drawdown":1.7363950759861968,"n":8,"win":100,"W":1.820689788650672,"L":0,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":8.146408847651433,"drawdown":1.8719699810819002,"n":8,"win":100,"W":1.6172520976238434,"L":0,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":6.792256927268747,"drawdown":2.123136341965459,"n":8,"win":87.5,"W":1.5302850305415334,"L":0.20913977628929456,"K":0.2144791498782239}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return14.62
drawdown17.51
sample53
win rate58.49
average win3.59
average loss3.7
quarter Kelly naive0.04
cells9
actual allocation0
QVM90806 EFA unscaled managed exits
BacktestsrejectQuant replicationEFA2026-09-08 06:11
Frozen notes965/analysis1038. Calibration2016–18; train2019–20,holdout2021–25,recent2026throughSep4. Monthlyfirstsession nextopen; skipoverlap. PriorATR14stop1ATR,target1.5ATR,half+1RthenBE;adversesamebar/gapordering. Zero/base/stress fees/slippage perfill0/0,5/5,5/20bp. Fractional diagnostic,cashreserve1ppm,adjustedOHLC notcashdividend or15min. Everyfill anddailycashledger matchedvectorbt exactly afterdraftsigncorrection. Win/W/L measuredreturnoninvestedamount, notweightedbookreturn; sizingalso needweightedperformancegate. Ninecells:[{"period":"train","cost":"zero","return":27.427176177736712,"drawdown":2.2631802071617746,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.743027124648422,"L":0.701619930817061,"K":0.14773222003244507},{"period":"train","cost":"base","return":21.455152298939637,"drawdown":3.4379575771927406,"n":24,"win":70.83333333333334,"W":1.5397446037406715,"L":0.9000180432434628,"K":0.13446177421649286},{"period":"train","cost":"stress","return":13.01776551429301,"drawdown":7.340129418960995,"n":24,"win":66.66666666666666,"W":1.3200951863204553,"L":1.0618430668256196,"K":0.09963595316023321},{"period":"holdout","cost":"zero","return":-6.003823348299342,"drawdown":11.90441448332119,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":1.0038468067347541,"L":1.2707722720042596,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"base","return":-16.632860762834056,"drawdown":20.16088442964261,"n":60,"win":51.66666666666667,"W":0.8020411692102272,"L":1.4680332171998045,"K":0},{"period":"holdout","cost":"stress","return":-30.365921327359867,"drawdown":31.377915952768742,"n":60,"win":38.333333333333336,"W":0.6995612052335577,"L":1.3978266390857312,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"zero","return":-2.297982909408469,"drawdown":7.763162215976671,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":1.1950589784110892,"L":2.035972661458602,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"base","return":-4.0408844409915545,"drawdown":8.223217872074907,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.9928712986809405,"L":2.2317047351289947,"K":0},{"period":"recent","cost":"stress","return":-6.5971180194952295,"drawdown":9.141618421729858,"n":9,"win":55.55555555555556,"W":0.6903464695038162,"L":2.5245703154187624,"K":0}]. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . All162cells individuallyrecordedQVM90806variant observations. No OOSselection.
return-16.63
drawdown20.16
sample60
win rate51.67
average win0.8
average loss1.47
quarter Kelly naive0
cells9
actual allocation0
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