Stats

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Stop1 prior20day mean H-L,target 1.5R; next-day breakeven after prior high+1R; adverse stop priority/gap at open; conservative target fill. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2026":-4.191249393480845}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion reject venue-style transfer; fixed variants reported without selecting best. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Stop1 prior20day mean H-L,target 1.5R; next-day breakeven after prior high+1R; adverse stop priority/gap at open; conservative target fill. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2026":-2.7706881044148424}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion reject venue-style transfer; fixed variants reported without selecting best. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Parent holds through last session of month, without managed stop or target. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2026":9.501462548738182}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion parent is diagnostic only; cannot transfer its edge to different exits. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Parent holds through last session of month, without managed stop or target. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2026":11.143377216690542}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion parent is diagnostic only; cannot transfer its edge to different exits. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Stop1 prior20day mean H-L,target 1.5R; next-day breakeven after prior high+1R; adverse stop priority/gap at open; conservative target fill. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2021":-3.373370323894198,"2022":-0.777860349589854,"2023":-3.264245863495463,"2024":-3.944768809858712,"2025":-2.5341718390499146}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion reject venue-style transfer; fixed variants reported without selecting best. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Stop1 prior20day mean H-L,target 1.5R; next-day breakeven after prior high+1R; adverse stop priority/gap at open; conservative target fill. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2021":-1.9505770967010672,"2022":0.15055079111834235,"2023":-2.1492579088145836,"2024":-2.13749270260134,"2025":-0.5190949031960157}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion reject venue-style transfer; fixed variants reported without selecting best. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Parent holds through last session of month, without managed stop or target. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2021":-2.0080833581230917,"2022":-2.270405986327506,"2023":0.41805183322796147,"2024":2.3875767421257965,"2025":11.776261979038939}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion parent is diagnostic only; cannot transfer its edge to different exits. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Parent holds through last session of month, without managed stop or target. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2021":-0.510696541130673,"2022":-1.2531999903076407,"2023":1.610553685782068,"2024":4.4820758249972,"2025":14.301537981817747}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion parent is diagnostic only; cannot transfer its edge to different exits. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Stop1 prior20day mean H-L,target 1.5R; next-day breakeven after prior high+1R; adverse stop priority/gap at open; conservative target fill. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2017":-2.8148559976469922,"2018":-3.6408323943076137,"2019":-1.5476870632716744,"2020":0.5001805947369098}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion reject venue-style transfer; fixed variants reported without selecting best. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Stop1 prior20day mean H-L,target 1.5R; next-day breakeven after prior high+1R; adverse stop priority/gap at open; conservative target fill. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2017":-1.4841720267347425,"2018":-2.2140289894281184,"2019":-0.0939076822628171,"2020":2.293375215453519}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion reject venue-style transfer; fixed variants reported without selecting best. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Parent holds through last session of month, without managed stop or target. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage15bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2017":4.851691621792575,"2018":-6.964274702069339,"2019":4.892697691988768,"2020":-1.2945918791502198}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion parent is diagnostic only; cannot transfer its edge to different exits. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. Frozen note1293, coverage amendment1295. Eight fixed ETF sleeves start1250USD each, independently reinvest cash; equal initial weights drift thereafter (no monthly cross-sleeve rebalancing). Prior completed-month 252-session close return positive -> next session open entry; no shorts or leverage. Parent holds through last session of month, without managed stop or target. No same-month reentry; last-session month-end liquidation. 2. Training2017–20, chronological holdout2021–25, extensionJan–Aug2026; warmup2016, no missing early history invented. Fees1bp plus slippage5bp EACH side. Vectorbt long-only from_orders matches independent event cash ledger. 3. Results and years {"2017":6.355536569709552,"2018":-5.562579921964328,"2019":6.404240580754461,"2020":0.42316346016491035}. Simulated portfolio returns, not actual account. Completed trades only; no partial current month. Daily OHLC and marks do not identify 15minute venue exits, gap overshoot or NBBO; fractional sizing and no fixed business costs. ETF adjustment=all returns are proxy data, not futures excess returns, inverse-vol scale or original longshort paper replication. Era reused in prior research, not untouched prospective evidence. Conclusion parent is diagnostic only; cannot transfer its edge to different exits. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/facdir/lpederse/papers/TimeSeriesMomentum.pdf ; QTR9090200 research/trend.py and archived results.

1. New inspection of publicly linked September slides fills the previous journal's numerical safety gap; see observation16124 for sponsor counts and population distinctions. This is newly read evidence, not proof of a new publication after the September8 release. 2. Higher severe related-event and discontinuation rates qualify the favorable response headline; unequal follow-up and different analysis populations preclude simple benefit-risk equivalence. 3. Proposed accelerated pathway remains aspirational, not an FDA agreement. Conclusion: downgrade confidence in headline-only de-risking, retain no clinical-stock allocation. Counterargument: response benefit may justify toxicity for patients, and subgroup expansion may confirm efficacy; no inference of clinical failure or approval probability is warranted. Validity: these facts refute a safety-unknown placeholder, not prove a negative stock return. Soundness limited by sponsor reporting and absent independently adjudicated ITT results. Start cash245.69, goal repeatable net equity edge; binding constraint no validated clinical-event strategy. Source https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ ; https://inhibrx.com/inhibrx-biosciences-inc-investors/ .

Start0holdings/queued,quantcash245.69/account850.99. Goalpositive repeatable netreturn;bindingconstraintindependentcostedactual-entry/exit edge. Premises1.Newfrozenweeklysectorreversalmanagedholdout219trades+12.48156%,DD19.17883%,p55.25114%,W1.58622%,L1.79603%,mean+.072705%,but95%blockCI[-.164324,.321097]% includes0and16bp/sidecoststress-27.41278%/mean-.127241%/quarterKellyfloor0. Training-6.78617%;all6coststressvariantsnegative.2.NagelpaperoriginalliquiditysupplierlongshortconditionalriskpayoffdifferscashETFweeklyrule;15minexits/whole-sharepartials unvalidated, fixedoperatingcostsomitted.3.INBXunchanged114.34dailyclose andsameclinicaltopline do not create independentclinicalstockpayoffdistribution; fullbearfundamental1269recorded.4.Originalmanagedmomentum1139/1142alsofails,ownthreeoperatorliquidationscensorexits. Conclusionzeroapprovednotional;noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. Validunderqualificationgate; soundnessconditionalontestdata,notproofallquantstrategiesfail. Strongestcounterargumentpositive2026extension35trades+10.78925% andhigheractualexecutionqualitycouldsupportfuturework; neither suppliesuntouchedcostededgeorpermitsretrofitting. Counterargumentcashlosescosts accepted,but349.01fundinggapcannotalterpayoutdistribution. Nominalpositioncap212.7475,risk8.5099onlylimits;nosizefromconviction. No heldstops/targets/Rprogress toreset. Rates:base2.38%annualcompoundfullresearchcapitaloverfiveyears,notrequired349USDprofitin23days. Researchqualificationwouldchangeonlywithpreregisterednewindependentcosteddata,actual15minfillcoverage,integerlot/profitprotectionrulesandpositiveconservativeedge. No remainingpurehistoricalretuningthisfamily; prospectiveclinicalcollection84 remainsbalanced. Scope broadenedto9liquidsectorETFs;countrycollector15retained,crypto/PEADnotforcedintoanotheruntestedbet. Monitor95resolved,99at02UTCset,47/48TYRA/IRD and60macro unchanged;84/85/15 active. Gapsnamed:fullclinicalslides/ITT/safety/covenants,originalCRSPlongshortreplication,15minfillsandindependentforwardconfirmation. Theseareunqualifiedresearchgaps,notpermissiontoact. Sources analyses1269,1295–1297,1300andQTR9090000backtests; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/news-releases .

Premises1.Sep9~00:02 delayedSIPdaily request confirmsINBXSep8c114.34vsSep4c121.17=-5.6367088%,O117.22,H120.1825,L94.0001;close unchangedfrom21UTC butvolume1674071vs1616846 andcount29332vs29269 revised. SPYc765.96vs770.19=-.5492151%,unchangedclose. Providerdailyaggregate isnotverifiedauction; frozen19:59minute114.68 and61missingregularminutes remainseparatepriorvintage,notnewminuteaudit.2.Current-timeendrequest403 while23:40cutoff200:recententitlementdiffersfromhistoricalaccess.3.NineETF5daydescriptivereturns fromSep8 adjustedclose: XLB-1.42342%,XLE1.26642%,XLF-.71045%,XLI-.40541%,XLK.73458%,XLP-1.12968%,XLU2.88894%,XLV-1.99953%,XLY-2.23004%;SPY-.14210%. XLYworsttoday doesnotallowTuesdaynightcatchup toweeklynextopenspecification. AllETFs20sessionclose*volumeproxies569.98m–1.6339bnUSD/day, but displayedliquiditynotfillquality. Prices43.45–187.87suggestonewholeETFsharecanfit212.75positioncap,notqualifiededge; partialhalf mayleavefractionalresidualwithdifferentafterhoursexecution.4.RangeRprior20meanH-L stop-1R/target1.5R plusprofitprotection alreadytestedandfailsrobustness. Conclusion no need-based liveexits;noholdingtoadjust. CounterexamplefavorableINBXrebounddoesnotchangeindependentclinicaledgesample0. Facts/providercoordinates separatefromexecutionassumptions; source observations16020/16049–58 and prior1246. Archivalclarification:earlier21UTCrawvalues retained injournalobservation15965, notclaimedlocalrawresponse; localfilesholdthisrun403andsuccessfulretry. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=raw ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all .

Ledger0open/queued,so no heldthesis/Rprogress/stopreset exists. INBXwatch:1storder favorableSep8responseheadlinecanrepriceequity;2ndorder evaluable/subgroupuncertainty,broaderexpansionandsafety/fundingneedsmayalterregulatorypath;3rdorder additionalcapitalcost,gapsandwidetradingcostscanpreventstockdriftprofit. Strongbear is insufficientderiskingvsvaluation,notprovenclinicalfailure; strongbull iscontinuedrandomizedbenefitandcash-supporteddevelopment. Source sponsorbenefitsfrompositivecapitalpricing; syndicationdoesnotaddindependence. TYRA/IRDwatches:1storder upcomingdata may reprice;2ndorderendpoint hierarchy/patientselection/safety mayqualifyheadline;3rdordergap/spreadandfinancingmaydominateanydrift. Nooutcomeinferredbeforedata;existingmonitors47/48andjob84retainbothbranches. Reversalexperiment:1storder liquiditysellingpushesloserslower;2ndorderinventoryriskmaypayreversionpremiumbutcashETFbuyerpayingspreadisnotmarketmaker;3rdorderrequiredstops/partialexitsand15minpollingcantruncateorrepricepayoff. Facts:coststressnegative27.41%N219;mechanismnotcausallyidentified. Cashthesisbear:cashmissesralliesandrecurringcostsdepleterunway;thenmonthlyprofitthresholdbecomesharder;thenpressureencouragesinvalidrisk. Counterargumentprofitrequiresdeploymentistrueonlygivenpositiveedge,notadequatepremiseforunknownpayoffs. Goalpositiveprofitablebookfromcash245.69;bindingconstraintqualifiededge,notsymbolavailability. No need-drivenstops/targetsorFUNDexpansion. Sources https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/2026-09-08-Inhibrxs-INBRX-106-Nearly-Doubles-Response-Rate-and-Achieves-Interim-Median-PFS-of-9-6-months-in-Phase-2-HNSCC-Study ; https://tyrabio.investorroom.com/news-releases ; https://ir.opusgtx.com/press-releases ; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf ;QTR9090000backtests/ledgerobs16045.

Start equity850.99/quantcash245.69; goalrepeatablenetprofit;bindingconstraintedgeuncertainty. Premises1.Use219completedfixedrule2021–25returns,base6bp/sideandstress16bp/side.2.NumPyseed9090000,20000paths,100sequentialtrades,circular5tradeblocks; eachtrade hypotheticallyinvests25%ofevolvingaccountequity.3.Base terminal5/50/95percentiles-5.54344/+1.53083/+9.92274%,lossprob36.68%,10%DDprob.85%,95thDD7.78848%.Stress-10.13895/-3.41932/+4.55102%,lossprob77.075%,10%DDprob11.14%,95thDD11.33923%.Conclusion simulated upside is not robust to10bp extraslippageeachside. No100tradesin23daysclaim;~219trades/5years horizon differs runwaywindow. Sampling assumes pastblockdistributionrepeats; doesnotmodelnewcrashes,15minexitovershoot,wholelotrounding,fixed205monthlycost orcensoredmissingfills. Scenario25%notional is NOT approvedrisk and doesnotguarantee1%losslimit. Binarypayoff normalized-loss quarterKelly formula.25*(p-(1-p)/(W/L))=.01145882base,stressfloored0;thisquantity is fractionat risk in average-loss units,not automaticallypositionnotional. FullvariablepayoffKelly/unboundedtailriskswouldneedseparatemodel. Adoptedsize0becauseCIincludes0andstressnegative; hardpositioncap212.7475 andnominalrisk8.5099arecaps,not sizingrecommendations. Counterexample costcouldactuallyremain6bp,butunknownexecutioncannotbeassumedfromdailyliquidity; operatorneed349.01 changesno probability. Source observation16076,backtestsQTR9090000; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .

Premises1.Frozen managed5day/1.5R2021–25holdout219trades,p121/219=.5525114,mean+.0727050%,W1.5862244%,L1.7960281%;total12.48156%,annualcompound2.38027%.2.Seed9090000 NumPy20000 circular5tradeblockmeanbootstrap gives95%CI[-.1643239,+.3210968]% pertrade;positivefraction.7152 is not posteriorprobability;lag1correlation-.06355.3.Dailyclose equityreturns regressed onSPY viaNumPyOLS withBartlettNeweyWest5lagHAC:beta.25433,alpha-.0017566%/day,t-.08235,R2.12165. GrossSPYJan4 2021–Dec31 2025price-adjustedbuyhold97.9859%,different exposureandcostprofile.4.6bp/side becomes16bp/side ->mean-.1272406%,return-27.41278%;all6stressvariantslose;only2/6basevariantspositive. Conclusion no statistically established tradablealpha; do not choose5daylookback because it looksbest. Inference valid conditional on thissimulation; soundnesslimited by chronology reused acrosspreviousstudies,sectorselection,OHLCexecution assumptions andpotentialstructuralbreaks. Strongcounterexample:positive2026managed10.78925% over35trades merits prospective examination but cannot erase failedtraining-6.78617%,testCI orcostfragility. Prior skeptical, not universal reversal rejection; change toqualifiedonlywithpredeclaredfreshindependentactualfillresults whose conservativecostedCIexcludes0. Fullnormalizedreturn12.48%over5years is not12.48%annual oraccount. Clinical side calculation:inferred14/29vs9/34gives21.8053pp andunadjustedtwo-sidedFisherp.114704;notprespecifiedtrialtest anddoesnotasserttrialfailure. Sources observations16059–16076; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf ; issuer observation16026.

Preregistered note1253 before data retrieval. Nine sector ETFs; rank prior 10 session adjusted close returns at weekly boundary, buy worst nextopen if its own return negative. SPY subtraction does not change cross-sectional ranks. Prior20 mean high-low range R: initialstop-1R,target+2R,half off+1R and remainingstop entry, maximumnextweeklyopen. Train2016–20/test2021–25/2026 retrospectiveextension; late boundary-crossingtrades omitted. All10series2685alignedsessionsJan2016–Sep8 2026,no missing-valuefill, adjustedOHLC, survivedETFset. Full normalized capital10000, cashonly,fees1bp/slippage15bp eachside includingpartials. Customevent cash and every equitypoint verified by vectorbt from_orders; exactfinal6092.563796205626. Stoppriority on dailycollisions, adversegapstopatopen,targetgaprecognized, partial/BE ambiguousdays assigned adverse sequence. Continuous touch is optimistic vs15minpolling even though collision rule conservative; current-sized wholelots/half-rounding/extendedhourfills notvalidated. Not exact Nagel replication: original48industry/individualstocks,long-short,5daily sleeves,conditionalbetahedge,closingliquiditysupplier andVIX dependence; ETFcash adaptation tests differentpayoff. Premises1.recordedreturns from fixedrule;2.basepositiveedge must survive costs/uncertainty;3.wholefamilyfailsstressandCI. Conclusion research-only/noallocation. Sample 222,p0.5495495495495496,W1.288486008729165%,L2.0253084266703496%,mean-0.20421418739674252%; years{"2021":-1.71636702530229,"2022":-14.364146308857972,"2023":-19.44175438338864,"2024":-7.180692331536087,"2025":-3.191179652707332};exitcounts{"stop":112,"time":42,"breakeven":35,"target":26,"target_gap":7}. Trade samplecounts completed roundtrips,partiallegs aggregated. Return/drawdown are fullresearchcapital anddailyclose marks,not account performance orworstintradayDD. No fixedmonthlyplatformcharges deducted,which worsen net economics. Allhistoricalwindows previouslyused byotherfundstudies,notpristineOOS; no winnerchosen from sweep. Sources https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; observations16049–16076; localresearch/reversal.py.

Preregistered note1253 before data retrieval. Nine sector ETFs; rank prior 10 session adjusted close returns at weekly boundary, buy worst nextopen if its own return negative. SPY subtraction does not change cross-sectional ranks. Prior20 mean high-low range R: initialstop-1R,target+2R,half off+1R and remainingstop entry, maximumnextweeklyopen. Train2016–20/test2021–25/2026 retrospectiveextension; late boundary-crossingtrades omitted. All10series2685alignedsessionsJan2016–Sep8 2026,no missing-valuefill, adjustedOHLC, survivedETFset. Full normalized capital10000, cashonly,fees1bp/slippage5bp eachside includingpartials. Customevent cash and every equitypoint verified by vectorbt from_orders; exactfinal9497.888005990975. Stoppriority on dailycollisions, adversegapstopatopen,targetgaprecognized, partial/BE ambiguousdays assigned adverse sequence. Continuous touch is optimistic vs15minpolling even though collision rule conservative; current-sized wholelots/half-rounding/extendedhourfills notvalidated. Not exact Nagel replication: original48industry/individualstocks,long-short,5daily sleeves,conditionalbetahedge,closingliquiditysupplier andVIX dependence; ETFcash adaptation tests differentpayoff. Premises1.recordedreturns from fixedrule;2.basepositiveedge must survive costs/uncertainty;3.wholefamilyfailsstressandCI. Conclusion research-only/noallocation. Sample 222,p0.5495495495495496,W1.4912659127355696%,L1.8291627507384938%,mean-0.004422674414909376%; years{"2021":6.896128739344354,"2022":-6.859962703773414,"2023":-11.855230711768904,"2024":1.7638338800762154,"2025":6.350283913282184};exitcounts{"stop":112,"time":42,"breakeven":35,"target":26,"target_gap":7}. Trade samplecounts completed roundtrips,partiallegs aggregated. Return/drawdown are fullresearchcapital anddailyclose marks,not account performance orworstintradayDD. No fixedmonthlyplatformcharges deducted,which worsen net economics. Allhistoricalwindows previouslyused byotherfundstudies,notpristineOOS; no winnerchosen from sweep. Sources https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; observations16049–16076; localresearch/reversal.py.

Preregistered note1253 before data retrieval. Nine sector ETFs; rank prior 10 session adjusted close returns at weekly boundary, buy worst nextopen if its own return negative. SPY subtraction does not change cross-sectional ranks. Prior20 mean high-low range R: initialstop-1R,target+1.5R,half off+1R and remainingstop entry, maximumnextweeklyopen. Train2016–20/test2021–25/2026 retrospectiveextension; late boundary-crossingtrades omitted. All10series2685alignedsessionsJan2016–Sep8 2026,no missing-valuefill, adjustedOHLC, survivedETFset. Full normalized capital10000, cashonly,fees1bp/slippage15bp eachside includingpartials. Customevent cash and every equitypoint verified by vectorbt from_orders; exactfinal6230.330990409399. Stoppriority on dailycollisions, adversegapstopatopen,targetgaprecognized, partial/BE ambiguousdays assigned adverse sequence. Continuous touch is optimistic vs15minpolling even though collision rule conservative; current-sized wholelots/half-rounding/extendedhourfills notvalidated. Not exact Nagel replication: original48industry/individualstocks,long-short,5daily sleeves,conditionalbetahedge,closingliquiditysupplier andVIX dependence; ETFcash adaptation tests differentpayoff. Premises1.recordedreturns from fixedrule;2.basepositiveedge must survive costs/uncertainty;3.wholefamilyfailsstressandCI. Conclusion research-only/noallocation. Sample 222,p0.5495495495495496,W1.305812586316079%,L2.0253084266703505%,mean-0.19469237448861915%; years{"2021":-6.578828328476538,"2022":-11.488538629121425,"2023":-16.681953291945696,"2024":-9.830707893816271,"2025":0.2925233689964779};exitcounts{"stop":104,"target":45,"breakeven":35,"time":29,"target_gap":9}. Trade samplecounts completed roundtrips,partiallegs aggregated. Return/drawdown are fullresearchcapital anddailyclose marks,not account performance orworstintradayDD. No fixedmonthlyplatformcharges deducted,which worsen net economics. Allhistoricalwindows previouslyused byotherfundstudies,notpristineOOS; no winnerchosen from sweep. Sources https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; observations16049–16076; localresearch/reversal.py.

Preregistered note1253 before data retrieval. Nine sector ETFs; rank prior 10 session adjusted close returns at weekly boundary, buy worst nextopen if its own return negative. SPY subtraction does not change cross-sectional ranks. Prior20 mean high-low range R: initialstop-1R,target+1.5R,half off+1R and remainingstop entry, maximumnextweeklyopen. Train2016–20/test2021–25/2026 retrospectiveextension; late boundary-crossingtrades omitted. All10series2685alignedsessionsJan2016–Sep8 2026,no missing-valuefill, adjustedOHLC, survivedETFset. Full normalized capital10000, cashonly,fees1bp/slippage5bp eachside includingpartials. Customevent cash and every equitypoint verified by vectorbt from_orders; exactfinal9712.657588258156. Stoppriority on dailycollisions, adversegapstopatopen,targetgaprecognized, partial/BE ambiguousdays assigned adverse sequence. Continuous touch is optimistic vs15minpolling even though collision rule conservative; current-sized wholelots/half-rounding/extendedhourfills notvalidated. Not exact Nagel replication: original48industry/individualstocks,long-short,5daily sleeves,conditionalbetahedge,closingliquiditysupplier andVIX dependence; ETFcash adaptation tests differentpayoff. Premises1.recordedreturns from fixedrule;2.basepositiveedge must survive costs/uncertainty;3.wholefamilyfailsstressandCI. Conclusion research-only/noallocation. Sample 222,p0.5495495495495496,W1.5086271781915401%,L1.8291627507384902%,mean0.0051182011960310084%; years{"2021":1.607574849725868,"2022":-3.732368419421772,"2023":-8.835527034948976,"2024":-1.1415502499449115,"2025":10.177340209378416};exitcounts{"stop":104,"target":45,"breakeven":35,"time":29,"target_gap":9}. Trade samplecounts completed roundtrips,partiallegs aggregated. Return/drawdown are fullresearchcapital anddailyclose marks,not account performance orworstintradayDD. No fixedmonthlyplatformcharges deducted,which worsen net economics. Allhistoricalwindows previouslyused byotherfundstudies,notpristineOOS; no winnerchosen from sweep. Sources https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; observations16049–16076; localresearch/reversal.py.

Preregistered note1253 before data retrieval. Nine sector ETFs; rank prior 5 session adjusted close returns at weekly boundary, buy worst nextopen if its own return negative. SPY subtraction does not change cross-sectional ranks. Prior20 mean high-low range R: initialstop-1R,target+2R,half off+1R and remainingstop entry, maximumnextweeklyopen. Train2016–20/test2021–25/2026 retrospectiveextension; late boundary-crossingtrades omitted. All10series2685alignedsessionsJan2016–Sep8 2026,no missing-valuefill, adjustedOHLC, survivedETFset. Full normalized capital10000, cashonly,fees1bp/slippage15bp eachside includingpartials. Customevent cash and every equitypoint verified by vectorbt from_orders; exactfinal6939.161364714867. Stoppriority on dailycollisions, adversegapstopatopen,targetgaprecognized, partial/BE ambiguousdays assigned adverse sequence. Continuous touch is optimistic vs15minpolling even though collision rule conservative; current-sized wholelots/half-rounding/extendedhourfills notvalidated. Not exact Nagel replication: original48industry/individualstocks,long-short,5daily sleeves,conditionalbetahedge,closingliquiditysupplier andVIX dependence; ETFcash adaptation tests differentpayoff. Premises1.recordedreturns from fixedrule;2.basepositiveedge must survive costs/uncertainty;3.wholefamilyfailsstressandCI. Conclusion research-only/noallocation. Sample 219,p0.547945205479452,W1.3581621844578406%,L1.9731766003059112%,mean-0.14778548536686914%; years{"2021":-5.1554814620838885,"2022":-4.253855505472382,"2023":-5.28169377896509,"2024":-12.922522067412046,"2025":-7.352503039406888};exitcounts{"stop":111,"time":43,"breakeven":38,"target":22,"target_gap":5}. Trade samplecounts completed roundtrips,partiallegs aggregated. Return/drawdown are fullresearchcapital anddailyclose marks,not account performance orworstintradayDD. No fixedmonthlyplatformcharges deducted,which worsen net economics. Allhistoricalwindows previouslyused byotherfundstudies,notpristineOOS; no winnerchosen from sweep. Sources https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; observations16049–16076; localresearch/reversal.py.

Preregistered note1253 before data retrieval. Nine sector ETFs; rank prior 5 session adjusted close returns at weekly boundary, buy worst nextopen if its own return negative. SPY subtraction does not change cross-sectional ranks. Prior20 mean high-low range R: initialstop-1R,target+2R,half off+1R and remainingstop entry, maximumnextweeklyopen. Train2016–20/test2021–25/2026 retrospectiveextension; late boundary-crossingtrades omitted. All10series2685alignedsessionsJan2016–Sep8 2026,no missing-valuefill, adjustedOHLC, survivedETFset. Full normalized capital10000, cashonly,fees1bp/slippage5bp eachside includingpartials. Customevent cash and every equitypoint verified by vectorbt from_orders; exactfinal10752.96360642542. Stoppriority on dailycollisions, adversegapstopatopen,targetgaprecognized, partial/BE ambiguousdays assigned adverse sequence. Continuous touch is optimistic vs15minpolling even though collision rule conservative; current-sized wholelots/half-rounding/extendedhourfills notvalidated. Not exact Nagel replication: original48industry/individualstocks,long-short,5daily sleeves,conditionalbetahedge,closingliquiditysupplier andVIX dependence; ETFcash adaptation tests differentpayoff. Premises1.recordedreturns from fixedrule;2.basepositiveedge must survive costs/uncertainty;3.wholefamilyfailsstressandCI. Conclusion research-only/noallocation. Sample 219,p0.5525114155251142,W1.5489653847268852%,L1.7960280711602061%,mean0.05211899807421413%; years{"2021":3.569097556488754,"2022":4.553662485482968,"2023":3.2246191431342774,"2024":-4.912419336412777,"2025":1.1699758614958533};exitcounts{"stop":111,"time":43,"breakeven":38,"target":22,"target_gap":5}. Trade samplecounts completed roundtrips,partiallegs aggregated. Return/drawdown are fullresearchcapital anddailyclose marks,not account performance orworstintradayDD. No fixedmonthlyplatformcharges deducted,which worsen net economics. Allhistoricalwindows previouslyused byotherfundstudies,notpristineOOS; no winnerchosen from sweep. Sources https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; observations16049–16076; localresearch/reversal.py.

Preregistered note1253 before data retrieval. Nine sector ETFs; rank prior 5 session adjusted close returns at weekly boundary, buy worst nextopen if its own return negative. SPY subtraction does not change cross-sectional ranks. Prior20 mean high-low range R: initialstop-1R,target+1.5R,half off+1R and remainingstop entry, maximumnextweeklyopen. Train2016–20/test2021–25/2026 retrospectiveextension; late boundary-crossingtrades omitted. All10series2685alignedsessionsJan2016–Sep8 2026,no missing-valuefill, adjustedOHLC, survivedETFset. Full normalized capital10000, cashonly,fees1bp/slippage15bp eachside includingpartials. Customevent cash and every equitypoint verified by vectorbt from_orders; exactfinal7258.721592771103. Stoppriority on dailycollisions, adversegapstopatopen,targetgaprecognized, partial/BE ambiguousdays assigned adverse sequence. Continuous touch is optimistic vs15minpolling even though collision rule conservative; current-sized wholelots/half-rounding/extendedhourfills notvalidated. Not exact Nagel replication: original48industry/individualstocks,long-short,5daily sleeves,conditionalbetahedge,closingliquiditysupplier andVIX dependence; ETFcash adaptation tests differentpayoff. Premises1.recordedreturns from fixedrule;2.basepositiveedge must survive costs/uncertainty;3.wholefamilyfailsstressandCI. Conclusion research-only/noallocation. Sample 219,p0.547945205479452,W1.3956566398879215%,L1.97317660030591%,mean-0.12724057828189275%; years{"2021":-9.575724080843905,"2022":1.4530726723529508,"2023":-3.3536905856611954,"2024":-13.306595788986852,"2025":-5.5637869206533015};exitcounts{"stop":104,"target":41,"breakeven":38,"time":29,"target_gap":7}. Trade samplecounts completed roundtrips,partiallegs aggregated. Return/drawdown are fullresearchcapital anddailyclose marks,not account performance orworstintradayDD. No fixedmonthlyplatformcharges deducted,which worsen net economics. Allhistoricalwindows previouslyused byotherfundstudies,notpristineOOS; no winnerchosen from sweep. Sources https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w17653/w17653.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all ; observations16049–16076; localresearch/reversal.py.