Stats

Frozen1431; 2016–2020training, no parameteroptimization. Main completedpriorIBS<=.2,nextsessionopenlong,1prior20sessionADRstop/1.5ADRtargetorclose; adversebarrierfirst. Independent1000USDcashsleeve,vectorbtlongonly andproportional1bpfee+5bpslip eachside,stress1+15; allreturncurves independentlyreconciledandtradecountchecked. All29cells thresholds.1/.2/.3,open/managed/green,0/6/16bps and2buyholds in observations18174,18175,18176,18177,18178. Greenhalf+1ADR thenBE/target onremainder conservativedailyordering; averagedexitmatchesproportionalcostcashbutnotfixedfees/15minwholelot execution. DDsyntheticopen/exitmarksnotfullintraday. vbttrade-return denominator entryvalue excludesentryfee; cashmean=mean/1.0001 forcostedcells. Complete8assetfixeduniverse, all2685dates2016–Sep8; no survivorshipfreeallETFclaim. Sameprotocolinholdout1642–1649; positive train/recentdoesnotqualifyalone. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen1431; 2016–2020training, no parameteroptimization. Main completedpriorIBS<=.2,nextsessionopenlong,1prior20sessionADRstop/1.5ADRtargetorclose; adversebarrierfirst. Independent1000USDcashsleeve,vectorbtlongonly andproportional1bpfee+5bpslip eachside,stress1+15; allreturncurves independentlyreconciledandtradecountchecked. All29cells thresholds.1/.2/.3,open/managed/green,0/6/16bps and2buyholds in observations18169,18170,18171,18172,18173. Greenhalf+1ADR thenBE/target onremainder conservativedailyordering; averagedexitmatchesproportionalcostcashbutnotfixedfees/15minwholelot execution. DDsyntheticopen/exitmarksnotfullintraday. vbttrade-return denominator entryvalue excludesentryfee; cashmean=mean/1.0001 forcostedcells. Complete8assetfixeduniverse, all2685dates2016–Sep8; no survivorshipfreeallETFclaim. Sameprotocolinholdout1642–1649; positive train/recentdoesnotqualifyalone. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen note1431. Main lagged IBS<=.2; nextopen buy, same-session close or1prior20dayADR stop/1.5ADRtarget, stopfirst ifboth touched. 6bp/side=1bpfee+5bpslippage;stress1+15bp. Cashonly,longonly,1000USDinitial,no leverage,independent symbolic sleeve; hypothetical fractional execution. Thresholds.1/.2/.3,zero/base/stresscosts,andopen/managed/greenrules plus2buyholdbenchmarks give29cells. Greenhalf+1ADR/remainderBE is preregistereddiagnostic, notrescue choice. Eachresult reconciles vectorbt cashcurve with independent product oftradecashreturns at1e-8 tolerance andexacttradecount. Greenweightedaverageexit equalsproportionalhalf-fill proceeds butdoesnotvalidatefixedfees or15minute whole-sharepartials. Adjustedcorporateactiondata,no rawcashdividendledger. Return metrics main vectorbt tradeP&L/entryvalue; divide win/loss/mean by1.0001 for cashdenominator, portfolio returnunchanged. DD syntheticopen/exitmarks omitsintradayunrealizedadversity. All29cells includingpositivecontrolresults andfullprecision metrics in observations18161,18162,18163,18164,18165. No post-hocasset/parameterselection. ETFs correlated; no claim of29independenttrials. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen note1431. Main lagged IBS<=.2; nextopen buy, same-session close or1prior20dayADR stop/1.5ADRtarget, stopfirst ifboth touched. 6bp/side=1bpfee+5bpslippage;stress1+15bp. Cashonly,longonly,1000USDinitial,no leverage,independent symbolic sleeve; hypothetical fractional execution. Thresholds.1/.2/.3,zero/base/stresscosts,andopen/managed/greenrules plus2buyholdbenchmarks give29cells. Greenhalf+1ADR/remainderBE is preregistereddiagnostic, notrescue choice. Eachresult reconciles vectorbt cashcurve with independent product oftradecashreturns at1e-8 tolerance andexacttradecount. Greenweightedaverageexit equalsproportionalhalf-fill proceeds butdoesnotvalidatefixedfees or15minute whole-sharepartials. Adjustedcorporateactiondata,no rawcashdividendledger. Return metrics main vectorbt tradeP&L/entryvalue; divide win/loss/mean by1.0001 for cashdenominator, portfolio returnunchanged. DD syntheticopen/exitmarks omitsintradayunrealizedadversity. All29cells includingpositivecontrolresults andfullprecision metrics in observations18156,18157,18158,18159,18160. No post-hocasset/parameterselection. ETFs correlated; no claim of29independenttrials. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen note1431. Main lagged IBS<=.2; nextopen buy, same-session close or1prior20dayADR stop/1.5ADRtarget, stopfirst ifboth touched. 6bp/side=1bpfee+5bpslippage;stress1+15bp. Cashonly,longonly,1000USDinitial,no leverage,independent symbolic sleeve; hypothetical fractional execution. Thresholds.1/.2/.3,zero/base/stresscosts,andopen/managed/greenrules plus2buyholdbenchmarks give29cells. Greenhalf+1ADR/remainderBE is preregistereddiagnostic, notrescue choice. Eachresult reconciles vectorbt cashcurve with independent product oftradecashreturns at1e-8 tolerance andexacttradecount. Greenweightedaverageexit equalsproportionalhalf-fill proceeds butdoesnotvalidatefixedfees or15minute whole-sharepartials. Adjustedcorporateactiondata,no rawcashdividendledger. Return metrics main vectorbt tradeP&L/entryvalue; divide win/loss/mean by1.0001 for cashdenominator, portfolio returnunchanged. DD syntheticopen/exitmarks omitsintradayunrealizedadversity. All29cells includingpositivecontrolresults andfullprecision metrics in observations18151,18152,18153,18154,18155. No post-hocasset/parameterselection. ETFs correlated; no claim of29independenttrials. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen note1431. Main lagged IBS<=.2; nextopen buy, same-session close or1prior20dayADR stop/1.5ADRtarget, stopfirst ifboth touched. 6bp/side=1bpfee+5bpslippage;stress1+15bp. Cashonly,longonly,1000USDinitial,no leverage,independent symbolic sleeve; hypothetical fractional execution. Thresholds.1/.2/.3,zero/base/stresscosts,andopen/managed/greenrules plus2buyholdbenchmarks give29cells. Greenhalf+1ADR/remainderBE is preregistereddiagnostic, notrescue choice. Eachresult reconciles vectorbt cashcurve with independent product oftradecashreturns at1e-8 tolerance andexacttradecount. Greenweightedaverageexit equalsproportionalhalf-fill proceeds butdoesnotvalidatefixedfees or15minute whole-sharepartials. Adjustedcorporateactiondata,no rawcashdividendledger. Return metrics main vectorbt tradeP&L/entryvalue; divide win/loss/mean by1.0001 for cashdenominator, portfolio returnunchanged. DD syntheticopen/exitmarks omitsintradayunrealizedadversity. All29cells includingpositivecontrolresults andfullprecision metrics in observations18146,18147,18148,18149,18150. No post-hocasset/parameterselection. ETFs correlated; no claim of29independenttrials. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen note1431. Main lagged IBS<=.2; nextopen buy, same-session close or1prior20dayADR stop/1.5ADRtarget, stopfirst ifboth touched. 6bp/side=1bpfee+5bpslippage;stress1+15bp. Cashonly,longonly,1000USDinitial,no leverage,independent symbolic sleeve; hypothetical fractional execution. Thresholds.1/.2/.3,zero/base/stresscosts,andopen/managed/greenrules plus2buyholdbenchmarks give29cells. Greenhalf+1ADR/remainderBE is preregistereddiagnostic, notrescue choice. Eachresult reconciles vectorbt cashcurve with independent product oftradecashreturns at1e-8 tolerance andexacttradecount. Greenweightedaverageexit equalsproportionalhalf-fill proceeds butdoesnotvalidatefixedfees or15minute whole-sharepartials. Adjustedcorporateactiondata,no rawcashdividendledger. Return metrics main vectorbt tradeP&L/entryvalue; divide win/loss/mean by1.0001 for cashdenominator, portfolio returnunchanged. DD syntheticopen/exitmarks omitsintradayunrealizedadversity. All29cells includingpositivecontrolresults andfullprecision metrics in observations18141,18142,18143,18144,18145. No post-hocasset/parameterselection. ETFs correlated; no claim of29independenttrials. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen note1431. Main lagged IBS<=.2; nextopen buy, same-session close or1prior20dayADR stop/1.5ADRtarget, stopfirst ifboth touched. 6bp/side=1bpfee+5bpslippage;stress1+15bp. Cashonly,longonly,1000USDinitial,no leverage,independent symbolic sleeve; hypothetical fractional execution. Thresholds.1/.2/.3,zero/base/stresscosts,andopen/managed/greenrules plus2buyholdbenchmarks give29cells. Greenhalf+1ADR/remainderBE is preregistereddiagnostic, notrescue choice. Eachresult reconciles vectorbt cashcurve with independent product oftradecashreturns at1e-8 tolerance andexacttradecount. Greenweightedaverageexit equalsproportionalhalf-fill proceeds butdoesnotvalidatefixedfees or15minute whole-sharepartials. Adjustedcorporateactiondata,no rawcashdividendledger. Return metrics main vectorbt tradeP&L/entryvalue; divide win/loss/mean by1.0001 for cashdenominator, portfolio returnunchanged. DD syntheticopen/exitmarks omitsintradayunrealizedadversity. All29cells includingpositivecontrolresults andfullprecision metrics in observations18136,18137,18138,18139,18140. No post-hocasset/parameterselection. ETFs correlated; no claim of29independenttrials. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen note1431. Main lagged IBS<=.2; nextopen buy, same-session close or1prior20dayADR stop/1.5ADRtarget, stopfirst ifboth touched. 6bp/side=1bpfee+5bpslippage;stress1+15bp. Cashonly,longonly,1000USDinitial,no leverage,independent symbolic sleeve; hypothetical fractional execution. Thresholds.1/.2/.3,zero/base/stresscosts,andopen/managed/greenrules plus2buyholdbenchmarks give29cells. Greenhalf+1ADR/remainderBE is preregistereddiagnostic, notrescue choice. Eachresult reconciles vectorbt cashcurve with independent product oftradecashreturns at1e-8 tolerance andexacttradecount. Greenweightedaverageexit equalsproportionalhalf-fill proceeds butdoesnotvalidatefixedfees or15minute whole-sharepartials. Adjustedcorporateactiondata,no rawcashdividendledger. Return metrics main vectorbt tradeP&L/entryvalue; divide win/loss/mean by1.0001 for cashdenominator, portfolio returnunchanged. DD syntheticopen/exitmarks omitsintradayunrealizedadversity. All29cells includingpositivecontrolresults andfullprecision metrics in observations18131,18132,18133,18134,18135. No post-hocasset/parameterselection. ETFs correlated; no claim of29independenttrials. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen note1431. Main lagged IBS<=.2; nextopen buy, same-session close or1prior20dayADR stop/1.5ADRtarget, stopfirst ifboth touched. 6bp/side=1bpfee+5bpslippage;stress1+15bp. Cashonly,longonly,1000USDinitial,no leverage,independent symbolic sleeve; hypothetical fractional execution. Thresholds.1/.2/.3,zero/base/stresscosts,andopen/managed/greenrules plus2buyholdbenchmarks give29cells. Greenhalf+1ADR/remainderBE is preregistereddiagnostic, notrescue choice. Eachresult reconciles vectorbt cashcurve with independent product oftradecashreturns at1e-8 tolerance andexacttradecount. Greenweightedaverageexit equalsproportionalhalf-fill proceeds butdoesnotvalidatefixedfees or15minute whole-sharepartials. Adjustedcorporateactiondata,no rawcashdividendledger. Return metrics main vectorbt tradeP&L/entryvalue; divide win/loss/mean by1.0001 for cashdenominator, portfolio returnunchanged. DD syntheticopen/exitmarks omitsintradayunrealizedadversity. All29cells includingpositivecontrolresults andfullprecision metrics in observations18126,18127,18128,18129,18130. No post-hocasset/parameterselection. ETFs correlated; no claim of29independenttrials. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SPY,QQQ,IWM,EEM,EFA,EWJ,EWZ,FXI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Premise1 direct fullfiles https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ and https://inhibrx.com/investor-deck/ match actualjob119 final08UTCnote1425 andprior06UTCbaseline. P2 unchanged safety/denominator concerns do not establish new clinicaldrift expectancy; priorfullreview randomized33/35,safety31/34,evaluable29/34,relatedgrade>=3AE15/31vs4/34 anddiscontinuation11/31vs5/34 retained, notremeasuredpatientdata. P3 actual08UTC listing84output1424 contains same3links each, limitedkeywordcoverage. TYRA Sep4issuer https://tyrabio.investorroom.com/2026-09-04-Tyra-Biosciences-to-Host-Conference-Call-on-Initial-Results-of-Oral-Dabogratinib-from-the-SURF302-Phase-2-Study-for-IR-NMIBC-on-September-9,-2026 andIRD Sep2 https://ir.opusgtx.com/press-releases/detail/542/opus-genetics-to-present-opgx-best1-cohort-1-clinical-data-in-investor-webcast-and-at-upcoming-leading-ophthalmology-conferences reconfirm08ETSep9calls; notguaranteedfirstnews. Conclusion no entry, resolve117,arm121at12:30UTC,renewdone119as130fourhourlyruns, preserve47/48and84. NewfullITT/safety/FDA evidence changesfundamental assessment; neither favorable nor adverse headline suppliesindependentcostedclinicalstockdistribution. Valid qualificationdeduction; uncertainty inunseenotherdisclosuresretained.

Start: quant245.69USDcash,account850.99USD; independentlyverified0open/0pending/0closing. Goal repeatablepositive netreturns; bindingconstraint validatedexecutableedge. Premise1 documentedStivers/Sunexpirationweekeffect is a differentmechanism from previouscalendar/slowtrendstudies; final2013publisherabstract/introduction and earlier2010author manuscriptsection5.1read, finalfullpaperunavailable. Premise2 frozenOEF2021–2025managedtest60trades:−13.2988%,DD19.9437%,p38.3333%,averagewin1.45051%,averageloss1.26922%,mean−.226655%. Stress16bp/side−23.1029%,mean−.426003%,quarter-block95%CI[−.838623,−.015338]%;quarterKelly0. Parentalso−14.1884%, so failuredoesnotdependonlyonchangedexits. All36holdout rule/ETF/costcellslose;48strategy/controlcells plus6buyholdbenchmarks recorded. Premise3 underlyinggrosscalendarpremium−.549183% withCIspanning0; .988189OEF/SPYcorrelationprevents treatingcontrolsasindependentreplications. Positive2023–2025managed+.083228%/eventturns−.116739%understress; nostartdateorcontrolweekselection. Premise4 all3wholeETFpricesexceed212.7475USDcap, actual15min/green-position/timeexitvalidation absent, and Sep9isoutsideentryweek. Conclusion noorders/adjustments/exits/newfund, retaincash. Validity follows mandatededgegate; soundness conditionalonprovideradjusteddata andmodeledfills, notproofallquantstrategiesfail. Strongestcounterargument: trueconditionaldealerflowsmaywork; gatherindependentsignedflowsbeforeanewprospectivetest, notrescuewithknownpositivecontrols. Simulation20000jointquarter-blockpaths has68.615%lossrateforhypothetical212.7475USDannualdeployment; nextmonthlywindowexpected−.4822USD. Funding349.01USDneeddoesnotchangeedge. INBX2fullPDFsunchangedversusactual05:45job119;113resolved,117at08UTC; retain47/48/60andjobs15/84/85/119. Existing119covers06:45/07:45beforenext08review; noredundantcollectororfailedsignalscheduled. Record1618–1623 and allmatchingobservations carry statistics/indicators/fundamentals/simulation/consequences; codeandrawarchivehandoffrecorded. Sources https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; https://inhibrx.com/hexagon-slides/ ; https://inhibrx.com/investor-deck/ .

Chain1: customers write calls and dealers buy them; then dealers may shortstock to hedge positive delta; then decaying/exercising calls can lead to stockrepurchases ifnetdelta falls. Callwriters earn premium, dealers earn spreads whilecarryinghedgingrisk. This is a conditionalmechanism, not observedcurrentinventory. Counterexample:customersnetlongcalls, pricechanges or rollingcontracts can reverse/offset theflow. Chain2: daily/weekly expirations expand; then hedge adjustments may distribute across moredates; then legacythird-Friday concentrationmay weaken. Cboe2025SPX0DTEshare59% substantiatesdifferentstructure but doesnotidentifycausaldecay inS&P100stocks. Chain3: publishedcalendarstrategyattractscapital; then buyingcanmoveearlier; then spreadcosts and exitcompetition can erasecashreturns. Counterexample:limits-to-arbitrage couldallowpersistence. Our gross and netmodernOEFresults areconsistentwithabsenttradablepremium, notproofwhichchaincausedit. Strongestalternative is genuineconditionaldealerflows remainprofitable despiteunconditionalfailure; that requires signedpoint-in-timeflowdata andnewuntouchedtest, notselectingfourth-Fridaywins fromcontrols. No newfund: this mechanismalreadyfitsquant andhasnoqualifiededge. Data source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 .

IssuerSep8OEFclose380.53/NAV380.19,53.45million shares and20.3209billionUSDassets show an establishedmega-capvehicle;0.09%quotedpremium andSep4median30daybidask.02%are dated summaries, not executable overnight quotes. Sep4P/E32.28,P/B6.90,101holdings characterize valuation/concentration, not discountedone-weekcallunwindcash. Annualexpense.20% is embedded in observed fundperformance; broker fees/slippage separate. Valid deduction: OEF economically proxies S&P100 exposure but not originalpoint-in-time constituentdealerinventory. Counterexample: ETFmarketmakers can hedge an ETF creation with broad index instruments; gross options volume alone need not create net constituent buying. Full2013paperaccess incomplete and signedhistorical optionflow unavailable. Goal positive netedge; bindingconstraint absentincrementalreturn, not sufficientfundsize. Investor/dealer/issuer interests differ; issuer benefits from assetgathering, hence no marketingclaim treated as causalalpha. Sources https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/239723/ishares-sp-100-etf ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1100663/000119312525171577/d924621d497k.htm . Data source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 .

Sep8adjustedcloses OEF380.53,SPY765.96,IWM294.67 all exceed accountpositioncap212.7475USD; quantcash245.69USD. No newentrySep9; calendarweekSep14–18 would be the next fixed window, but no validatededge authorizeswatch-to-buy. Lagged20dayADR throughSep4 onSep8bar: OEF2.621705,SPY4.40956,IWM2.468525. These are dateddiagnostics, not currentexecutable exit levels. MainOEFholdout60trades average3.233sessions,3same-dayexits,6adversegapstops; worsttrade−3.06063% would lose6.5114USD oncapnotional historically, not a guaranteed8.5099USDriskbound. Dailybar fills omit15minpolling, overnightquotes, partialprofit-taking and liveclosing-time execution. BE sensitivity is stopmovement only, not complete venuegreen-position management. All rule variants already fail neteconomics, so refuse further exit tuning to rescue them. ProviderOEFvolume214153 differs fromissuer214217 by64shares withsame380.53close: separate feed/cutoff measures, not evidenceofatradesignal. Data source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 .

Premise1 OEF managedholdoutp=.3833333, averagewin1.45051385%, averageloss1.26921956%; quarterKelly=max(0,.25*(p−(1−p)*loss/win))=0. P2 NumPyseed90906 samples20 historical three-month blocks withreplacement,4blocks/path,20,000paths across12monthly windows, retaining contemporaneousOEF/SPY/IWM vectors. Hypothetical212.7475USD OEF exposure has yearprofit2.5/50/97.5percentiles[−27.782671,−5.728007,+17.417338]USD; lossfrequency68.615%;95th maximumdrawdown12.47927%. One expirationwindowmeanprofit−.482203USD. None of20,000paths reaches349.01USD; finite bootstrap result not impossibility. P3 observed60eventexitcounts stop25+gapstop6,target12+gaptarget7,time10:51.667%stop,31.667%target,16.667%time. These are modeled historical frequencies, not calibrated live15min exit odds. Future tails, varying spreads and regimechanges may be worse; fixedsystemcosts excluded and cashinterest0. Bindingconstraint edge, not capital. Actualallocation0; quarterKelly fraction is a capital allocation convention, not an empirical optimal cash fraction from this small sample. Data source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 .

Frozen diagnostics only, no selected filter. OEF managed holdout60windows: lagged200SMA uptrend44 mean−.202038%, downtrend16−.294351%; positive5sessionmomentum35−.383170%, nonpositive25−.007534%; combineduptrend/positivemomentum29−.152041%. Trainingmedian dailyRV20 .006476527 partitions highvol50 mean−.232778%, lowvol10−.196043%. All these fixed group means are negative at6bp/side. Counterexample:2023–2025 alone36windows gives+.083228% withp50%, but16bpstress reverses it to−.116739%; do not select that era after seeing it. 2021–2022 24windowsmean−.691479%. Parent post2023 grosscalendarpremium−.092362%,CI[−.825672,+.640947]% does not establish causation by0DTE. Currentlaggedtrendpositive cannot revive a calendar signal that is inactiveSep9 or a rejected payoff rule. All subgroup figures saved as observations; subgroups small and correlated. Data source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 .

P1 Friday-to-Friday gross returns over259 complete within-period weeks in2021–2025: OEF third-week mean−.106145% versus otherweeks+.443038%. OLS third-week coefficient−.549183 percentagepoints, Newey-West4weeklylags t−1.64981,95%CI[−1.201620,+.103254]%; neither positive evidence nor proof of a negative structural law. P2 OEF-SPY calendar-premium difference−.005757%,CI[−.107767,+.096253]%; OEF-IWM+.011301%,CI[−.528429,+.551031]%. Correlation OEF/SPY .988189, so comparison ETFs are not independent corroboration. P3 managedOEF60monthlytrades mean−.226655%, quarter-block95%CI[−.640154,+.184983]%; stressmean−.426003%,CI[−.838623,−.015338]%. Inference: mandatory positive net-edge gate fails. Twenty quarter blocks sampled10,000times preserve nearby months, but long-range dependence and repeated historical strategy search remain uncorrected. Earlier2010paper endpoints verified; historicalpublication evidence differs in population/period. The holdout is rule-unseen chronological testing, not pristine research-wide OOS. Data source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 .

Unconditional exposure control, not adoption candidate. Vectorbt longonly firstclose to lastclose, 1000USD each independent sleeve,1bpfee plus remaining costslippage per side. Periods2016–20/2021–25/2026–Sep8. Uses all endpoints without20daystrategywarmup. AllETFreturns/drawdowns saved observation. OEF sample1 investment, comparisonSPY/IWM notindependenttrials; positivebuyholdnotweeklytimingalpha. Adjustedprices proxy distributions; risk/exits and wholelotcaps differ. {"split":"extension","bps":16,"return":{"OEF":11.340333856800862,"SPY":12.358960431028276,"IWM":18.558451035846428},"drawdown":{"OEF":10.815042477311565,"SPY":8.879990748503886,"IWM":11.028399151375357},"sample":3,"win_rate":100} Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Unconditional exposure control, not adoption candidate. Vectorbt longonly firstclose to lastclose, 1000USD each independent sleeve,1bpfee plus remaining costslippage per side. Periods2016–20/2021–25/2026–Sep8. Uses all endpoints without20daystrategywarmup. AllETFreturns/drawdowns saved observation. OEF sample1 investment, comparisonSPY/IWM notindependenttrials; positivebuyholdnotweeklytimingalpha. Adjustedprices proxy distributions; risk/exits and wholelotcaps differ. {"split":"extension","bps":6,"return":{"OEF":11.56323759543094,"SPY":12.583903463630215,"IWM":18.795805470368478},"drawdown":{"OEF":10.815042477311609,"SPY":8.879990748503841,"IWM":11.028399151375313},"sample":3,"win_rate":100} Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Unconditional exposure control, not adoption candidate. Vectorbt longonly firstclose to lastclose, 1000USD each independent sleeve,1bpfee plus remaining costslippage per side. Periods2016–20/2021–25/2026–Sep8. Uses all endpoints without20daystrategywarmup. AllETFreturns/drawdowns saved observation. OEF sample1 investment, comparisonSPY/IWM notindependenttrials; positivebuyholdnotweeklytimingalpha. Adjustedprices proxy distributions; risk/exits and wholelotcaps differ. {"split":"holdout","bps":16,"return":{"OEF":114.10202059661678,"SPY":97.35338788947179,"IWM":34.83986603526797},"drawdown":{"OEF":26.47170708511647,"SPY":24.496061940995894,"IWM":31.91321844108128},"sample":3,"win_rate":100} Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Unconditional exposure control, not adoption candidate. Vectorbt longonly firstclose to lastclose, 1000USD each independent sleeve,1bpfee plus remaining costslippage per side. Periods2016–20/2021–25/2026–Sep8. Uses all endpoints without20daystrategywarmup. AllETFreturns/drawdowns saved observation. OEF sample1 investment, comparisonSPY/IWM notindependenttrials; positivebuyholdnotweeklytimingalpha. Adjustedprices proxy distributions; risk/exits and wholelotcaps differ. {"split":"holdout","bps":6,"return":{"OEF":114.53065359228046,"SPY":97.74849006375166,"IWM":35.10981591968533},"drawdown":{"OEF":26.471707085116492,"SPY":24.496061940995872,"IWM":31.913218441081238},"sample":3,"win_rate":100} Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Unconditional exposure control, not adoption candidate. Vectorbt longonly firstclose to lastclose, 1000USD each independent sleeve,1bpfee plus remaining costslippage per side. Periods2016–20/2021–25/2026–Sep8. Uses all endpoints without20daystrategywarmup. AllETFreturns/drawdowns saved observation. OEF sample1 investment, comparisonSPY/IWM notindependenttrials; positivebuyholdnotweeklytimingalpha. Adjustedprices proxy distributions; risk/exits and wholelotcaps differ. {"split":"train","bps":16,"return":{"OEF":110.31033015563798,"SPY":102.44290384159672,"IWM":90.51572356232329},"drawdown":{"OEF":31.435696473102947,"SPY":33.79381911340275,"IWM":41.273284001020706},"sample":3,"win_rate":100} Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Unconditional exposure control, not adoption candidate. Vectorbt longonly firstclose to lastclose, 1000USD each independent sleeve,1bpfee plus remaining costslippage per side. Periods2016–20/2021–25/2026–Sep8. Uses all endpoints without20daystrategywarmup. AllETFreturns/drawdowns saved observation. OEF sample1 investment, comparisonSPY/IWM notindependenttrials; positivebuyholdnotweeklytimingalpha. Adjustedprices proxy distributions; risk/exits and wholelotcaps differ. {"split":"train","bps":6,"return":{"OEF":110.73137217374884,"SPY":102.84819524465156,"IWM":90.89713670865416},"drawdown":{"OEF":31.435696473102936,"SPY":33.79381911340268,"IWM":41.27328400102065},"sample":3,"win_rate":100} Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

Frozen protocol1388–1389. OEF is primary; SPY and IWM are comparison sleeves, not alternatives selected for better returns. holdout: development2016–2020, holdout2021–2025, extensionJan–Aug2026 complete windows, with only within-partition entries/exits. Common20-session warmup removes January2016 only. Week4 by calendar Friday ordinal; holidays use last actual session. Parent previousweek lastclose to currentweek lastclose; open firstopen to lastclose; managed stop1 lagged20session ADR/target1.5ADR, narrow .75/1.125, wide1.25/1.875; breakeven raises stop next session after +1ADR high. Stop-first OHLC ambiguity, adverse gap at open, favorable gap capped at target; time exit lastclose. Vectorbt explicit longonly, fee1bp plus 15bp slippage per side, 1000USD each independent sleeve, idle cash0. Every final cash return reconciles compounded cash trade returns and trade count. Drawdown observed at open/close marks, not full intraday. No live15min fills, cash-dividend accounting, partial-taking or wholelot replication claimed. Mean CI from10,000 quarter-block samples, not independent daily or crossasset observations. Holdout historically reused across other strategies, not pristine research-wide OOS. OEF figures below; comparison figures and equal-sleeve portfolio: {"SPY":{"sample":60,"win_rate":55.00000000000001,"mean":0.10981931229790189,"avgwin":1.3557462268853715,"avgloss":1.412980249975672,"quarterkelly":0.020250713245611562,"worst":-2.4252043068920037,"return":6.012727069475455,"drawdown":7.942768200792871,"exit_counts":{"stop":24,"target":18,"time":13,"target_gap":3,"stop_gap":2},"ambiguous":1,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.30333304871143935,0.5462934878336946]},"IWM":{"sample":60,"win_rate":48.333333333333336,"mean":0.002332480049549076,"avgwin":2.0329871949397815,"avgloss":1.8973122532348619,"quarterkelly":0.0002868291614618601,"worst":-3.1642400897867295,"return":-1.3025572961725402,"drawdown":16.52135106256868,"exit_counts":{"stop":26,"target":16,"time":13,"target_gap":3,"stop_gap":2},"ambiguous":0,"mean_ci_pct":[-0.5548522814982243,0.5915580436362803]},"portfolio_return":4.966511756310332,"portfolio_drawdown":8.398624330221127}. All datapoints recorded in matching observations. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=OEF,SPY,IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426613003051 .