Stats

Premises1 frozen1719: close>SMA50day AND3dayreturn<0 enters next exact available baropen whenflat; exit previousclose>SMA5day or5calendardays atnextavailableopen;hourlywindows1200/72/120.2 Vectorbt25bpfees+10bpslippageeachside,20bpstress;40/60dayneighborsnotselected.3 Training2025,holdout2026Jan1–Sep9,2024Octwarmup,100cashreset,liquidateatlastavailableopen;missingbarsexcludednotfilledforexecution/signals,marksffill. Daily/hourlydistinctcadences.4 Trainingintegrity1937limitsinference;HYPEnopre2026training. No15minvenueexitsorstopsvalidated;notdeployable. Base hourly {"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","slow":50,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"return":-51.37790940857072,"drawdown":51.377909408570765,"n":109,"win_pct":9.174311926605505,"avg_win":0.26083329232377783,"avg_loss":0.7499381642825762,"mean":-0.6572068379884154,"ci":[-0.8323659304342884,-0.5115721407850407],"quarter_kelly":0};daily {"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","slow":50,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"return":-5.001865737616086,"drawdown":12.380268283046348,"n":19,"win_pct":47.368421052631575,"avg_win":1.5194893809724728,"avg_loss":1.8250573281515732,"mean":-0.24079836067176186,"ci":[-1.3441592186971418,0.8051192743701276],"quarter_kelly":0};train [{"tf":"1Day","return":-9.66791139229285,"n":26},{"tf":"1Hour","return":-55.63734164418271,"n":133}]. Full12or24cells observations19688–19703. CI5000IIDtradebootstrapoptimisticwithserialdependence,quarterKellypointestimateisnotapproval. Capitalreturnversustrade-returndenominatorfeeapproximationnotexactcreditedassetledger. Allhourlybaseexpectanciesnegative; Dailywinratealonecannotoverridecrosscadencerejection. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-trading .

Premises1 Fullhistory1DayvsUTCaggregate1Houronly24-observationdays,2024Oct1–Sep9;2 2025largestOHLCdiscrepanciesBTC5.8437%,ETH7.3274%,SOL10.1405%,XRP7.1626%,LINK9.7853%,LTC6.1494%,UNI8.5381%;3 ExampleBTCDec2dailyopen91625.132vsfirsthour86270.82, daily low89602.3682vshourlow86167.6,closesboth91298.385.4 2026OHLCidenticalexceptBTCclose3days>.01%(max.03198%)andLINK1day(max.0339966%);HYPEall203completedaysidentical. CurrentSep9all8have24hours. Conclusionrecentaggregationpassdoesnotvalidate2025training; keepdaily/hourlyasdistinctprovidedhistoriesandmarkprovisional. Do notchoosewhicheverfeedmakesstrategyprofitable. Validitydiscrepancyisreproduciblearithmetic,notproofwhichsourcecorrect; soundnessAlpacaproxymethodology/revisionsnotresolved. Ruleevaluationcanrejectbadperformancebutcannotestablishdeploymentwithunreconciledtraining. Independentoriginalvenueauditrequiredforpositivecandidate. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises1 CompletedSep9frozenpullbackall8true:BTCclose78283.41>SMA5070194.26,mom3-2.5641%;ETH2467.7>2137.79,-1.8981%;SOL101.5535>85.93,-4.6706%;LINKmom3-10.8443%,UNI-15.5985%.2 ADR20BTC2598.90USD/ETH101.55/SOL6.327/LINK.7850/UNI.5733; annualRV3047.84/74.19/65.21/83.69/115.49%,bigmovementsnotautomaticallyoverreaction.3 Localfreshquote7/10(rejectUNInegativeage),costrecoveryBTC.5225%,ETH.5449%,SOL.5914%,LINK.714%,UNI.7197%,LTC1.0881%; fees25bpeachside. Displayedmajoraskdepth78–96USDbelow212.75positioncap.4 Priortrend-followingfailed;newdaily/hourlypullbackoutcomespendingcannotauthorizeentrynow. Conclusionrange-basedfuturestop/targetmustbevalidatedwithentryandexits;do notconvertADRintoanorderbeforepayoffedge. Countercasesustaineduptrendwouldbenefitpullbacks,structuralbreakwouldamplifylosses. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-trading .

Premises1 CompletedSep9all8close>SMA50andnegative3dayreturn;potentialentriescorrelated.2 OLS2026simpledailyreturnonBTCwithintercept,N252(exceptHYPE204sinceFeb18): ETHbeta1.2533 R2.8318;SOL1.2037/.7733;XRP1.2359/.7560;LINK1.1832/.7324;LTC.8545/.6405;UNI1.1902/.4350;HYPE1.1340/.2724.3 BTCcorrelationsrange.5219HYPEto.9121ETH;HYPEdailyintercept+.5064%notriskadjusteddeployablealpha,shortselectedhistoryandnonstationarity. Conclusiondonotcount8concurrentsignalsas8independentconfirmations. ValidityR2describessamplelinearmarketco-movement,notfuturehedgeratio. Soundnessonevenue,presentmembership,non-normalreturnsandstructuralchange;notcausality. Requireindependentcostedtradeexpectancyandjointdrawdownbeforedollarallocation. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises1 Nasdaqdirectories13160non-testlistingrows screenedbycryptonamesfound186instrumentmatches;addedFTFT/OLBfromwholemarketmovers=188IEXsnapshots. Namefalsepositives(e.g.SCMC)andhiddenexposures/OTCremain;not13160pricedfundamentalstudies.2 Only25of188IEXVWAPvolume>1m;MARA+.8034%,BTCZ+.4348%onlypositiveamongthem. BITO89.95m/IBIT80.12mIEXdollarvolumelead;GLXY-7.0188%,FTFT+64.31%/OLB+25.05%lowIEXvolumeareonefeedprints,notconsolidatedreturn.3 Published36USDpaircensus7completedUTCdays:top10containsUSDC/USDG;USDG3/7daysandstalequotesexcludeentry,remaining8frozenpullbacktest.OnlyXTZ20dayclosebreakoutoutside top10scope.4 International3350.T/HIVE.TOpositive20bartrendbutpartialTokyobar,foreigneligibility/FX andindependentstockedgeunverified;0961.HK/BITF.TO404gaps. Conclusion broadenswatchonly:rejectstock-labelproxies,leveraged/inversewrapperchasingandstablecoin'svolume-as-alpha. Newpricechallengerfrozen1719beforehistory;CLI1886isdiagnostic. Counterexampledifferentindependentlytestedstockcashmechanismcouldqualify;nonehere. Sources https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt ; https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?feed=iex ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

RanrequiredCLI --strategymean-reversion --lookback20 --entry2 --exit0 --days617. Premises1 engineusescurrentclosesforsignalsandfills,nofees/slippage/noholdout.2 Sevenofeightgrossreturnspositive, largestLINK69.1614%DD11.9156%win73.6842%N19;LTC45.3542%DD12.1012%win80%N20;HYPE14.61285%N2andno2025history.3 Thisisnotfrozentrend-pullbackrule,soresultnotreplicationorparameterselection. BTC-3.257646%DD16.639125win61.1111N18,ETH5.419817%N15,SOL15.553973%N17,XRP36.165798%N19,UNI19.214556%N22. Averagegrosslossmaybefarworsethanwinrateimplies. Rejectdeploymentfromthisdiagnostic;costednextopenindependentdaily/hourlyholdoutsrequired. Allfiguresinobservation19211;latest618barincludespotentialpartialSep10(206HYPE). Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; local /app/agent/src/backtest/engine.ts andstrategies.ts.

Premises1 HIVEissuerAug17body/Aug16header:350mUSDfiveyearcontract,70mARR,185mcapex,35mexpecteddeposit.2 180mBUZZARRonly35mactive(19.44%),145mcontractedawaitsQ4.3 HIVE.TO20bar+16.80%,Metaplanet3350.T+12.11%withlivepartialTokyoendpoint do notcalibratefutureprofit. Rate70m/year,total350m;grosscapex/revenue2.64yearsnotpaybackbecausepower/labor/interest/taxandobsolescenceunknown. Beforeotherfunding,150mcapexlessdepositremains;notclaimunfundedbecauseissuermentionsfinancing. Countercasecreditquality,prepaymentandprofitabledeploymentcanimproveeconomics; requireactualcashmarginsandfinancingterms. MetaplanetSep1indexshowsrepurchases/warrantexercisesratherthannewBTCpurchase;directPDFwebaccessfailed,fullcurrentquantitiesnotverified. 0961.HK/BITF.TO404aredata/mappinggaps,notdelistingfindings. Noequityorforeignvenueapproval,FXandindependentstockruleunvalidated. Sources https://www.hivedigitaltechnologies.com/news/hives-buzz-hpc-signs-350-million-ai-cloud-services-agreement-with-investment-grade-enterprise-customer/ ; https://metaplanet.jp/en/disclosures ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/HIVE.TO ; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/3350.T .

Premises1 OKX100settled8hfundingobservations Aug8–Sep10UTC, meansBTC.60409bp ETH.62436bp SOL.28588bp;2 SOLlatest-.9099475bp below5thpercentile-.7279581bp,but34/100negativevsBTC5/ETH4;3 oneexchangefundingregimedoesnotmeasureglobalspeculationorAlpacasupply. Sumover100intervalsBTC60.40925bp ETH62.43565bp SOL28.58792bp, historicalperpfinancingonly; noannualizationorpromisedrate. SOLbelowp05lookscontrarianbutthelatestvalueispartofthis100pointwindow, notprospectiveindependenttest. Nojointfunding-priceholdouttrainedhere; priorpriceedgefails. Newhypothesistoallowfutureprospectivecollection,butallocation0. Counterexamplepersistentnegativefundingduringdowntrendcanprecedefurtherlosses;fundingcancorrectwithoutspotrally. Validitythresholdclassifiesextremeunderlocalempiricaldistribution; soundnessselection/serialdependence/33daywindowandchangesinOIdefinitionlimitprediction. Sources https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest .

Premises1 MARAH1filing(19163/adjacentobservation)shows23093BTCsales,OCF-471.257m andPPE94.303m,intangibles.524m;2 GalaxySep8releaseconditional4.2GWcontains1.63GWpreviouslyapprovedBaseLoad plus2.6GWStudiedLoad,notnewunconditionalcapacity;3 HYPEfeeconversion/burnexistsbutgrowthmodefeesfall>=90%. Firstorder: minerliquidityneedsconsumeBTCinventory; conditionalpowercapacityawaitsallocation;lowerfeesreduceburnperdollarvolume. Secondorder: financingterms,constructioncostsandcustomerleasesmaydominateequityreturn;morevolumeneededtomaintainburn. Thirdorder: BTCtreasuryshareholdersmayfaceasset-sale/dilutionwhileAIhostingrevenuearriveslater;cryptoadoptiondoesnotensuretokenorequitycashcapture. Countercase: profitablecontracteddeliveriesorbetterhashmargincouldreversecashburn;noneinthisscreenprovestimededge. Logicalvalidityconditionalchainsplausible,notcausalregression; soundnesslimitedH1versuscurrentperiod,issuerpowerclaimsnotERCOToriginal,andunmeasurednetHYPEemission. Nosellorderflatbook; rejectchasingMARArelativeIEXstrengthandGLXYdipwithoutindependentstocktest. NoFUNDproposal:noseparatevalidatededge. Sources https://ir.mara.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001507605-26-000022/mara-20260630.htm ; https://investor.galaxy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/galaxy-provides-update-ercot-batch-zero-large-load ; https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/trading/fees .

Premises1 CircleSep7 netissue7d+.94bn/30d+2.22bn/365d+1.88bn unchanged; average134.286m/dayweek vs74m/daymonth does not establish BTCbuying or same-dayflow.2 IBIT/ETHACSVstillSep8 stocks785771.17270BTC/3527867.36790ETH; mark-to-marketAUMnotcreations.3 Liquidtip69.2275h old,secondAPIerror andunchangedoperatorpreparingrestart; noverifiedrestoredpegout.4 Hyperliquidprimarydocs https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/trading/fees describe automaticfeeconversiontoHYPEandassistancefundburn, notlegalcashdistributiontoholders;deployers/HLPalso sharefees,andgrowthmodecutsfeesatleast90%. Incrementalvolumecannotmaplinearlytoburn; issuer/protocoldocsfinanciallyinterested, mechanismnotindependentcashmeasurement. Counterexample: rapidlyincreasingpaidfeesandverifiednetburncouldsupportscarcity,butcirculatingsupply/unlocksandcostedpriceedgeunmeasured. Validity: stockandmechanismalone donotimplytimedreturn. Soundness:primaryquantitiesdated,directonchainstatepartial,documentsnotauditofcurrentflows. Keepcash; HYPEneedspriortrainhistory(currentAlpacastartsFeb17) andnetissuance. Sources https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/337614/ishares-ethereum-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .

Startstate235.86fundcash/850.99systemequity,noholdings/queuedorders; goalrepeatablenetprofit; bindingconstraintindependentlypositiveexecutableentryedge. Premises1 fixednewmomentumtests1813/1816/1817daily/hourly,training/holdout andcoststress reject: 4/36positivecellsallSOLdaily, notindependentreplications; basehourlymeans-.594089/-.625851/-.470864%,quarterKelly0.2 DailySOLpositivepointestimate1.2678%quarterKellyisnotapproved: negative2025train/hourly,CIcrosszero, currentmomentumnegative.3 Fundamentals1809/consequences1810identifyunchangeddatedstocksandunknowncurrentflow, nottimededge.4 Statistical1822correlation.879–.912 andsimulation1823lossodds81.95–88.16%cannotrescuefailedentry.5 CLI1824optimisticdiagnosticloses; manualaccountingcrosscheck18670matchesnewdailyportfolio returns. ConclusionNo proposals; stops/targets/horizonsnotinventedbecause0holdingsand0eligibleentries. Validitygatefailureimplies0size; soundnesslimitedbyonevenuehistory,missinghours,feeapproximation,serialdependence/publicationlag. Strongestcounterargumentcashmissesrally; noassertionallstrategiesfail. Newindependentprospectivecoststressedentry+matching15minexitvalidationwouldchangeeligibility; monthly349.01shortfallcannot. OwnN1forcedBTCliquidationnotedgeestimate. Mon154resolved15902UTCset;155–157renewedlocaltestedremotepending,existing14/25/122/104/152preserved. Allanalysis/observation/lessonrecords saved; finishingunder10minutes of42planned/45hard, nooverrun. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BTC/USD,ETH/USD,SOL/USD --strategy momentum --lookback3 --days617. BTCreturn-10.948474%DD33.437946%win32.58427%N89;ETHreturn-35.643586%DD62.105551%win28.888889%N90;SOLreturn-39.976039%DD60.750072%win26.373626%N91. Premise1 source engine uses sameclose signals/fills, nofees/slippage;2 CLI isnotnewcombinedSMA+momentumrule anddoesnotholdout;3 resultincludeslatestbars618/617/618potentialpartialcurrentday. Thus diagnosticcannotvalidateanyentry, evenoptimisticgrossscreenloses. Independentnextopenvectorbt fullcompletedbar2025train/2026holdout analyses1813/1816/1817supersedeexecution/evaluationmethod, not claimedexactreplication. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Allfiguresobservation recorded; no selectionfromCLI.

Premises1 fixedrulehourlyholdoutmeansnegative;2 reuseactualnettrade returns1813/1816/1817 withnumpyseed910 circular3tradeblocks toretainlocaldependence;3 10000paths,10trades fixed50USDnotional,start235.86, noextraadaptation. Results medianendBTC231.834/ETH231.079/SOL230.808; probabilitybelowstart88.16/87/81.95%. 5–95endrangesBTC229.097–242.529 ETH227.963–246.139 SOL227.348–251.186;95thmaxdrawdownUSD6.805/7.989/8.578. No calendartimingforecast, blocks cannotcaptureunseenregime/gaps orliveexit15minovershoot. QuarterKellypointestimatehourly0all; SOLdailypositiveestimate1.2678% isnotapproved becausetraining/hourly/CIgatesfail (on235.86only2.99USDalso below10cryptominimum). No scalingtoforceaffordability. Validitynegativeestimatededgecreatesunfavorablebootstrap; soundnessconditionalonhistory andblockchoice. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars .

Premises1 Pearson completed2026dailyreturncorr .9121BTCETH/.8794BTCSOL/.8794ETHSOL computedpandas; onevenue pricehistory, notcausality.2 Fixedrule basehourly meansBTC-.594089%ETH-.625851%SOL-.470864%,N91/92/91; 10000IIDtradebootstrap95meanCIsBTC[-.996055,-.028073],ETH[-1.195468,.220810],SOL[-1.244164,.670137].3 SOLdailywinnerN21mean+.560133CI[-2.646168,4.822665] andtrainreturn-31.6853%; positivepointestimate not robustedge.4 4/36OOSpositivecells allSOLdaily20/3or30/5 at2costs; cells correlated, not36 independenttrials. Conclusion diversificationcannotrepairnegativeestimatedmeans; noincrementalcapital. Validity weightednegativeexpectancies remainnegative absentnewmechanism; soundnesslimitedbyserialdependence, survivorship, feeapproximation andsmalldailyN. IIDCI optimistic if clustering; blockbootstrap simulation separately addresses localdependence butnotregimes. Priorcash unchanged, independentprospectivepositivecoststressedentrysample plus15minexits would moveeligibility; rallyalonewouldnot. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars . Allmeasuredcells observations18659–66.

Premises1 BTCclose78283.41 belowSMA2078696.033;ETH2467.7 barelyabove2467.1549;SOL101.5535 barelyabove101.453688.2 All3three-daymomentumnegative (-2.5641/-1.8981/-4.6706%), so conjunction fails even where SMApasses.3 New backtests1813/1816/1817 failcrosscadence; 4 of36OOS cellspositive areSOLdaily only, not independent strategy successes.4 Freshquotes18636recoverfee+spread .5225/.5190/.5910% withtopask78.66/81.93/95.74USD below212.7475cap. Onequote notfull depth; lower makerfees require actualfill validation.5 Top10volume census18647 has nobreakout; USDG sparse3/7days. Conclusionzero entry, noinventedstop/target. ATR14arithmeticmeans2296.98/88.44/5.4346 are descriptive ranges, cannotbe convertedinto viableexits withoutnetentryedge. Validity: combinedgatefalse andpayofffailures prohibitnewrisk under mandate. Soundnesslimits missinghourlybars, historyselection, cost/quoteapproximations. Bullcounterexample sustainedSOLtrend couldbenefitdailyvariant; traininglossanduncertaintypreventselectingholdoutwinner. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Premises1 rule frozen note1680: close>20daySMA AND3daymomentumpositive; false-to-true enters nextopen, fails exits nextopen; hourly480/72lookbacks.2 vectorbt fees.25%eachside +.10%slippagebaseline/.20%stress; conventionalquote-cashfeeapproximation slightly differscreditedassetfee, not exactledger.3 Train2025, untunedholdout2026Jan1–Sep9, Nov2024warmup; initialcash100reset eachperiod; finalopenliquidation.4 Neighbors15/2,30/5 robustness only, noholdoutselection. Complete slowwindow required; missingbar signal/execution notfilled, onlymarksffill. No stop/target in diagnostic; fails before venue15minexitgate, cannotdeploy. Daily and hourly are separately evaluated rules, not simply executionfrequency changes. Baseline hourly {"s":"SOL","tf":"1Hour","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":-40.237747293565334,"dd":58.59861692215998,"n":91,"win_pct":16.483516483516482,"avg_win":4.780174580657124,"avg_loss":1.5072537357357205,"mean":-0.47086445281382316,"ci":[-1.2441638289493344,0.6701372751429963],"kelly":0}; baseline daily {"s":"SOL","tf":"1Day","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":4.670713408269307,"dd":35.76662929081982,"n":21,"win_pct":28.57142857142857,"avg_win":11.045272425539386,"avg_loss":3.6339227333760706,"mean":0.5601330263140591,"ci":[-2.646168490805578,4.822665397515861],"kelly":0.012678117042611237}. All24cells saved in two preceding observations including training and stress. IID10000tradebootstrap CI diagnostic, serialdependence andselectionlimit inference. Crosscadence/training/cost gatefailure rejects family, not allmomentum. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Localstudy.py/test_rule.py; priorfailedrules1639–41separate.

Premises1 rule frozen note1680: close>20daySMA AND3daymomentumpositive; false-to-true enters nextopen, fails exits nextopen; hourly480/72lookbacks.2 vectorbt fees.25%eachside +.10%slippagebaseline/.20%stress; conventionalquote-cashfeeapproximation slightly differscreditedassetfee, not exactledger.3 Train2025, untunedholdout2026Jan1–Sep9, Nov2024warmup; initialcash100reset eachperiod; finalopenliquidation.4 Neighbors15/2,30/5 robustness only, noholdoutselection. Complete slowwindow required; missingbar signal/execution notfilled, onlymarksffill. No stop/target in diagnostic; fails before venue15minexitgate, cannotdeploy. Daily and hourly are separately evaluated rules, not simply executionfrequency changes. Baseline hourly {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Hour","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":-46.58474926513336,"dd":53.987082498734054,"n":92,"win_pct":14.130434782608695,"avg_win":4.0765137278853425,"avg_loss":1.3996577647096213,"mean":-0.6258509233646807,"ci":[-1.1954679384912237,0.22081003061163765],"kelly":0}; baseline daily {"s":"ETH","tf":"1Day","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":-11.422283048844662,"dd":37.73849357987928,"n":26,"win_pct":23.076923076923077,"avg_win":9.73506753974786,"avg_loss":3.2393049982052977,"mean":-0.24521902790841546,"ci":[-2.530345689144061,2.7848788781685805],"kelly":0}. All24cells saved in two preceding observations including training and stress. IID10000tradebootstrap CI diagnostic, serialdependence andselectionlimit inference. Crosscadence/training/cost gatefailure rejects family, not allmomentum. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Localstudy.py/test_rule.py; priorfailedrules1639–41separate.

Premises1 rule frozen note1680: close>20daySMA AND3daymomentumpositive; false-to-true enters nextopen, fails exits nextopen; hourly480/72lookbacks.2 vectorbt fees.25%eachside +.10%slippagebaseline/.20%stress; conventionalquote-cashfeeapproximation slightly differscreditedassetfee, not exactledger.3 Train2025, untunedholdout2026Jan1–Sep9, Nov2024warmup; initialcash100reset eachperiod; finalopenliquidation.4 Neighbors15/2,30/5 robustness only, noholdoutselection. Complete slowwindow required; missingbar signal/execution notfilled, onlymarksffill. No stop/target in diagnostic; fails before venue15minexitgate, cannotdeploy. Daily and hourly are separately evaluated rules, not simply executionfrequency changes. Baseline hourly {"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":-43.1463036464578,"dd":52.32858719907525,"n":91,"win_pct":9.89010989010989,"avg_win":3.982919197094079,"avg_loss":1.0964439326960234,"mean":-0.5940893374420572,"ci":[-0.9960551179858709,-0.02807263319465789],"kelly":0}; baseline daily {"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","slow":20,"look":3,"period":"oos","slip":0.001,"ret":-6.241857587794257,"dd":27.17241733513124,"n":24,"win_pct":29.166666666666668,"avg_win":4.808424276608217,"avg_loss":2.2173266040806103,"mean":-0.1681492638797025,"ci":[-1.673508872945616,1.9712994110569761],"kelly":0}. All24cells saved in two preceding observations including training and stress. IID10000tradebootstrap CI diagnostic, serialdependence andselectionlimit inference. Crosscadence/training/cost gatefailure rejects family, not allmomentum. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees . Localstudy.py/test_rule.py; priorfailedrules1639–41separate.

No holdings exist, so no per-position R/target/horizon/exit adjustment is applicable. Premises1 cash preserves235.86 nominal capital but has upside opportunity cost;2 issuer supply/ETF stocks are dated;3 custody restoration/current GME hedges unconfirmed (observation18639). Cash bear chain: first a new buying wave raises majors; second trend followers/short covering amplify; third cash underperforms while late entry pays spread and may chase reversal. Liquidity bear chain: first USDC issuance funds transfers or collateral rather than buys; second leveraged exposure faces funding/mark losses; third redemptions/deleveraging offset apparent liquidity. Custody bear chain: first authorized recovery releases claims; second recipients sell/hedge or intermediaries net exposures; third price absorbs opposing flows before retail can capture edge. GME chain: first collateral permits reuse; second dealer netting/hedging direction depends on total book; third expiration can change exposure without net global demand. Facts end at dated quantities/contract rights; all behavioral arrows are scenarios, not forecasts. Beneficiaries: cash avoids fees; venues/custodians earn turnover; issuer receives option premium while capping some upside. Strongest counterargument to abstention is missed rally, addressed with fixed new momentum test rather than assumption that all strategies fail. Sources https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638026000055/gme-20260801.htm ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Premises:1 Direct issuerCSV refreshed Sep10 00:03 still Sep8 stocks785771.1727BTC and3527867.3679ETH, unchanged since last run; stock levels are not contemporaneous purchases.2 CircleSep7 8.8bn issued minus7.86bn redeemed=.94bn net over7days,134.286m/day arithmetic average; destination/spot purchases unknown.3 GME newly filedSep9 says noH1BTCpurchase/sale and4709pledged/1direct asAug1; postAug1 rolls/hedges unknown.4 Liquid primarytip4051232 age67.23h and secondary intermittenterror/stale4050335; operator unchanged preparation is not authorization or restoredpegout. Strongest bear case for majors: unresolved custody trust and leveraged unwind could dominate liquidity growth; strongest bear case for cash: genuine new buying/recovery can precede these lagged disclosures. Neither has measured directional probability. Validity: dated stocks and collateral rights cannot identify current order flow; soundness limited by issuer incentives/publication lag and explorers' partial coverage. No fundamental valuation assertion from unmeasured network fee capture. Sources https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/337614/ishares-ethereum-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638026000055/gme-20260801.htm ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks . Observations18637–39.

Startstate235.86fundcash/850.99equity,noopenorqueuedlots; goalrepeatablenetprofit; bindingconstraintvalidatedpositiveexecutableentryexpectancy. Premises:1 Technical1799/frozen1639–41 shownegativecostedmeanBTC-.637761%,ETH-.528767%,SOL-.153726%,quarterKelly0,daily/hourly/15minbaseline/stressrejected.2 Newfundamental1797 resolvesnoH1GMEspottrades/4709pledgedCoinbase/2000callreferences asAug1; consequences1798 showscurrenthedgeflowunidentified.3 No newentry-conditionedpayoffsample,ownonlyN1forcedliquidation.4 Observation18627 identifiescollectorcoveragegaps;locallytested151–153renewed,firstremotesavedpending. ConclusionNo proposals. Validity: requiredpositiveedgeunmet meanszeroeligibleallocation. Soundnesslimitedbyhistoryselection,serialdependence,fees/executionassumptions andpublicationlag; counterexample a rally ornewbuyingafterAug1 wouldcausecashopportunitycost, notprovefrozenruleprofitable. Priorcash unchanged; independentlypositivecost-stressedOOSentryandmatching15minexitstudy could changeallocationabove0,monthlypressurecannot. Bookcap235.86,position212.7475,risk8.5099 constrainpositiveedgeonly,notreason tofill. Noorder/exit/adjustneeded. Review allrequiredprioranalysis typesinstead ofrerunningfailedtests; no new backtestlabel. Monitor148resolved154midnightand152GMEexpiryset;lessons573–575,14/25jobs122PPI104Arcpreserved. Elapsedabout5minutes at21:06;within31planned45hard,finishreservedrecords/report. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638026000055/gme-20260801.htm ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .

Premises:1 Read originalbacktests1639–1641, frozen2025training2026Jan1–Sep8OOS complete72hpaths; entryunconditionalevery3days, priorATR14stop1ATRtarget1.5ATR; allthreecadencesbaseline/stressnegative. Notarecommendedentryfamily.2 Pythonreusewinmeans givesBTC-.637760573%,ETH-.528766361%,SOL-.153726143%; quarterKelly0. p42.6829/44.2623/47.1429%,N82/61/70, wins2.642605/4.139850/4.496455%,losses3.080586/4.236197/4.301185%.3 Currentquotes18608feeassumedrecovery.5314/.5311/.5569%; topask77.92/82.38/97.07USD below212.7475cap.4 Onlyowntrade10forcedclosure cannot estimate entry/slippage distribution. Reuse simulation1652 10000IIDpaths10cycles,hypothetical50USDstart medians232.708/232.959/234.934 from235.86,loss72.8/63.86/53.83%; sensitivitynotforecast, BTC15mstopovershootto1.4898R. Conclusion0size,noinventedstop/target. Validitypositiveedgegateunmet; soundnesslimitedbycompletecases,serialdependence, optimisticbarcloseexecution,costassumptions. Rallypossible butnotpositiveconditionalexpectancy. Thisisreviewnotnewbacktestorindependentsample. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees .

Numbered premises:1 Sep9GME10Q reports4709BTC contractualreceivable underCoinbaseCreditcollateralrights; nofirsthalfBTCpurchase/sale.2 Aug1callsreference2000BTCK70000throughSep25, currentoptionpositionandsettlementmethodunknown.3 No observeddealerhedge orders. First order collateral permits reuse; calls exchange some upside for premium. Second order Coinbase/optioncounterparty may hedge, net againstotherclients, or alreadyholdinventory; spotbuying/selling sign cannot be identified from liabilityalone. Third order settlement/rolling canredistributecoinrisk withoutnewglobaldemand andexpectedhedges mayalreadybepriced. Beneficiaries issuerpremiumincome andintermediaryfees; costsissuerupsidecap/counterpartyrisk. Strongestbearcase hedge/unwindcreates sales; strongestbullcase hedgeacquisition/newconfidencecreates buying. Both behavioralassumptions beginathedging, notfilingfacts. Notional2000*70000=140m isstrikeaggregate, notnewflowor guaranteedcashreceipt. Conclusionnoentryedge,noorder. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638026000055/gme-20260801.htm

Premises:1 NewSep9 filing Note11 explicitly no BTC purchase/sale firsthalfFY2026;1BTCdirectplus4709pledgedCoinbaseCredit receivable. This resolves historicalquantity/counterparty gap and contradicts treating75mQ2marks asforcedsales.2 AsAug1 roughly2000BTC callsK70000 maturitythroughSep25,2mliability; no currentroll/settlement/hedge confirmation.3 ETFCSVsstillSep8 unchanged785771.1727BTC/3527867.3679ETH; CircleSep7net+.94bn/week no new period.4 Liquidtip64.234h old,secondaryerror,unchangedpreparation notauthorizedpayout. Conclusion improved fundamental information, no timed spot-flow edge. Validity: collateral/accounting rights not proof exercised; soundness: issuer own unaudited record andinterestedoperator, publication lag, omitted postAug1trades. Bullishcountercase no historicalsales removes one fearedseller; bearishcountercase counterparty canhedge/reusecoins. Both remain unmeasured conditional returns. Source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638026000055/gme-20260801.htm ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .

Startstatefund235.86cash/system850.99equity,zeroopen/queued; goalrepeatablenetprofit; bindingconstraint independentlypositive executable entry payoff. Premises:1 Technical1766 preserves rejected daily/hourly/15min tests and quarterKelly0; currentquotes cannot reverse historical expectancy.2 Fundamental1767 and consequences1768 offer no newly identified flow/timing edge.3 OwnonlyN1forcedclosure cannot estimate probability or slippage.4 Collector18598 coverage gaps explicitly retained, renewals locallytested but remoteoutputpending. Conclusion No proposals, no orders. Validity: unmet requiredpositiveedge implieszeroeligible size. Soundness limited by history,serialdependence,costassumptions and disclosurelatency; an unobservedbuyingwave/rally is strongestcounterexample but makes cash opportunitycost, not an approvedentry. Prior remains cash; independentpositivecoststressed prospective samples with matching15minexecution could move allocation above0, monthlyshortfall cannot. No new backtest or MonteCarlo: reuse frozen studies and simulation1652 sensitivity rather than duplicate failededge. Monitor143resolved,next21UTCset,14/25jobs122/104monitorspreserved.147–149renewedcutoff21:01, firstsavedoutputunverified. Allthree lessonkindsrecorded. Elapsed~4minutes within33planned/45hard; finishingrecords/report. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots ; https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf/latest-holdings.csv ; https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://blockstream.info/liquid/api/blocks .