Stats

Premises: 11 issuer-dated events in3513, SIP bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . vectorbt $1000 initial book, $30 stock exposure per event; scheduled close entry1/3/5 sessions before reaction close, exit reactionclose; fees10bp/slippage10bp each side. Chronological train2024–25, holdout2026. Fixed baseline longT1 train-.348071%,DD.499122%,win33.33%,N9; holdout-.074364%,DD.074364%,win0,N2. Short underlying control T1 train+.133033%,holdout+.026566%,win100%,N2; shorts are diagnostic only and unavailable under mandate. Across T1/T3/T5 long holdouts-.07436/+.01505/+.08694%; short+.02657/-.06321/-.13538%; no selecting best holdout. T3/T5 trainN8 because January boundary omits earliest entry. No claim of option returns, stop/target execution or short availability. CLI node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols CAG --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days730 --stop-pct5 --target-pct15 returns-7.29374%,DD8.05669%,win29.4118%,N17,buyhold-53.31893%; CLI alone lacks heldout/cost audit. Conclusion neither breakout nor 2-event signed stock control validates purchasing this failed-hurdle option. Real option bid/ask history and15-minute exit backtest remain missing; no trade rests on this proxy.

Premises: completed Sep18 SIP adjusted daily observations recorded this run, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . CAG15.13 below SMA50 15.1632/SMA200 15.3402; ATR20 .38701, RV20 22.486%,20-session momentum-7.0068%,volume2.253x prior20,252-high19.59. ABVX105.04 below SMA200118.9799/high148.83,volume.784x. IONS44.44 below SMA20072.1822/high86.74,volume2.100x. SFIX2.84 below SMA2003.9037/high5.94,volume2.016x. Conclusion: none qualifies via 52-week-high breakout; high volume alone does not establish buying pressure. CAG20-day downside trend is context for put, not independent proof event direction. Counterexample near-term rebound can coexist with weak averages; do not stack correlated trend indicators as independent votes. This is a four-name screen, not exhaustive liquid-market census. Trading sample and event chronology remain separate; no equity/spot substitute under long-options-only mandate.

Premises:1 issuer11earnings dates Jan2024–Jul2026 recorded29674–84; primary07:30releases plusOctoberissuerPDF/announcements; Jan4duplicatecountsonce. 2 SIPadjustmentall preclose->reactionclose measured close-to-close, samekind as inheritedmedian, notmixedwithgap. N11medianabs2.0644096%,P805.4213318%,max8.041958%; signedmean-.881869%. Separateovernightmedian2.811245/P805.124056. Bootstrap50k seed91908 IID95%medianCI1.5216–5.4213%,P80CI2.0644–8.0420%; smallsample/regime dependenceunmodeled. Train9median2.49554%,holdout2median.841088%; no fittedfutureodds. 3 CurrentS15.13 Oct16P14 ask.23bid.08 needs8.988764%,P80intrinsic0,0/11signedbreakevencoverage;68affordableexpiryeligiblelegsnonepass. Contractprice's breakevenhurdle isnotATMimpliedvol. NewSep30morningevent https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 . ConclusionrejectCAGcurrentchain underbothmandategates. ExcludingOct2025N10median1.98285/P804.58254stillfails. Counterexample unprecedentedguidancecollapse couldpay; no measuredprobability justifies overridingrule. Sampling excludesolderregimes before2024 anddoesnotmeasure16remainingcalendar-dayoptiontimevalue; nooptionEVclaim. Sources eventobservations and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; indicativechain.

Premises: CAG FY27salesguide-3%to-1%,netdebt7.05bn/FCF.979bn (3511); ABVX Sep21 financialupdate dateonly https://ir.abivax.com/events/event-details/h1-2026-financial-results/; IONSapprovalalreadySep3 https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zanvastrotm-zilganersen-approved-fda-first-and-only-disease . CAG bear chain:1 worsevolume/margin->2 lesscashavailableforinvestment/debtservice->3 leverage/equityvaluation pressure; bullcounterchain volume recovery->cashrestoration->deleveraging/equityrerating. Genericpeersmayfacesameconsumerpressure but brand/channelmix prevents automaticGIS/readthroughtrade. ABVX:1 reportedcash/trialspend->2 financingrunway/dilutionneeds->3 equityvaluation; routinefinancials do notjustifyborrowingclinicalreadouttaildistribution. IONS:1 approvalremovedbinary->2 paidaccess/launchcosts->3 recurringcashandcapitalallocation; approvalitselfdoesnotguaranteecash. Theseareconditionalinferences notmeasuredprobabilities. Who benefits:creditorsfromcashretention, issuersfromfundingoptionality, patientsfromaccess; noneproves longoptionedge. Conclusionretainseparate eventtypesandupdateonlyfromactualprimarynews.

Premises:1 July15 issuer FY26 report https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958 reports FCF978.7m vs1302.6m(-24.9%),netdebt7050.4m/leverage3.83x;FY27adjustedEPS1.40–1.50 andorganic sales-3%to-1%. 2 Sep18S15.13 gives10.09–10.81x guidedadjustedEPS; accountingadjustments andleverage prevent callingcheappriceamarginofsafety. 3 Guidance isissuerforecast, notconsensus surprise;cashgeneration materiallypositive despiteweakening. Conclusion bearcase requiresvolume/margin deterioration beyondpricedexpectations;bullcounterexample isstabilization plusdeleveraging. Incentives:managementbenefitsfromadjustedmetrics andturnaroundnarrative;creditorsbenefitfromcashretention. FCF/netdebt13.88%annual historicalflowratio, notdebtpayoffforecast orowner-equityyield. Priorneutraldirection; sustainedcashimprovement weakensputthesis, sharpcashandguide deterioration supportsdownsidebutstillrequiresqualifyingcontract. Valuationmultiples do not overridefailedtailgate.

Premises:1 issuer https://ir.abivax.com/events/event-details/h1-2026-financial-results/ lists Sep21H1 results, hour unknown. 2 https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast confirms Sep22before-open/08:30ETcall. 3 NYFed https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep26.html Sep21householdspending11ET,Sep22Phillynonmanufacturing08:30/Richmondmanufacturing10ET. BLS https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm lists neitherday; not exhaustive macro calendar. 4 Ionis https://ir.ionis.com/news-releases/news-release-details/zanvastrotm-zilganersen-approved-fda-first-and-only-disease confirmsSep3approval; oldSep22PDUFA is obsolete. Conclusion: no pendingIONSFDAtrade; no own due monitors/positions to exit. ABVX cheapOct2P71 at.28 versusS105.04 needs32.6733%drop; financial update not same-kind clinical binary, no established event sample. MLKNpriorretrievedmin52>30cap. Neither supplies liveentry. Monday fresh SFIX/BB quotes remain actionable via404/407; Tuesday record actual MLKN, survey outcomes. Stronger/weaker survey data changes context, not creates optionedge. Earlyissuernews ordatechange realigns event and cancels pending premise. FDAwholemarketdecisioncensus remains incomplete; explicitno-known-liveFDAcandidate is not proofnoneexists. Dates are chosen review inputs, no invented announcement hours.

Start100USDfundcash/1000accountequity, zeroownpositions/orders/trades confirmedquery_trades. Goal convexeventparticipation, bindingconstraint attainablewholecontractpremium<=30 andtailpayoff, notfundingdeadline. Premises:1 SFIXSep23AMC reverifiedissuer https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; unchangedOct16P2.5ask.28,S2.84needs21.830986% vsN10median16.578014%,P80payoff.552156=1.971985x<4. BestrejectedticketSFIX261016P00002500,28USDpremium. 2 NewBB13eventstudy3476 Oct2P7.20hurdle14.8936%vsmedian9.1153%,P80.1768x; P7.5.46oversize. 3 MLKNissuerSep22BMO https://news.millerknoll.com/2026-08-25-MillerKnoll-Schedules-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Conference-Call-and-Webcast ; cheapestretrievedOct16ask.52=>52>30. 4 CAGissuerSep30morning https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962 ; nearestaffordableOct16P14.23/S15.13hurdle8.9888% vsinheritedmedian2.0644%; P80notrebuiltsoincompletenotfullreject. 5 BBcorrectedputholdout3485 -3.8%N2 andregimesensitivity3487 donotvalidatecheap-optionpolicy. Conclusionretain100cash,noorderswhileclosedresearchrun; noequity/spotcrypto substituteunderlongoptions-onlymandate. Validgatearithmetic; historicalrepeatability/executableprice assumptionsunproved. Strongcounterexamplefuturecheapnearerlegpasses: repriceMonday09:50/12:30, recomputenetodds/halfKelly,fullpremium<=30,total<=100,max4,stop50%paid,target3x ordefendedP80. SFIXcostedmedianwatch.110816 unchangedS; BBP7.5 .218311after.02friction. Neitherisaquote. Holdthroughonlyifpricedmove<=realizedmedian; iftail-onlypass reconcilepre-eventexit. ResearchcoveragefournameUSlisted/CanadianBB, noexhaustiveFDA/court/52weekbreakout/cryptooptioncensus; namegapratherthanclaimwholemarketnoedge. Existing404/405 SFIX preserved, new407/408BB,job277tested2/2/local; remotereceiptpending. NoFUNDproposal.

Premises:13observedovernightgaps29472–84; S7.99;10tradingsteps fromMondaySep21 throughOct2, eventstep4ThursdaySep24 issuer https://investors.blackberry.com/ . Correctedstep4 supersedesinitialstep3 outputs29595–97. NumPy50kpaths/scenario seed91906; stockzeroexpecteddrift GBM40/60/80%annualvol, oneIIDempiricalgap injectedday4; rate4%assumption. BSMputflooredintrinsic,pre-eventindicativeIV84.03%K7/98.70%K7.5, posteventIV40/60/80%; noAmericanexerciseboundary calibration. Exitdaily modeledmark<=.5paid or>=max(3paid,P80intrinsic),elseexpiry; actual15minquote/liquidityandgapstop executionunvalidated. $1roundtrip+.01/shareexitslippage. K7p.20 target.60 means-$13.6358/-10.8047/-6.7817,stop95.850/92.566/87.452%,target3.234/6.130/11.384%. K7.5 hypotheticalp.20 target.60 means-$7.1241/+$1.7658/+$10.9070;stop83/71.85/60.444%,target13.416/25.566/37.804%. CurrentK7.5ask.46 costs46>30cap; means-$30.4092/-23.0016/-15.1475. Cheap.20 is notquotedattainable. ModelP05 oftenfullpremium+fee despitehalf-premiumstop. Separate13signedclose intrinsicpayoff logutilitygrid halfKelly0 forK7p.20 andK7.5p.20/.23/.46 after.02friction. Intrinsicexcludesremainingtimevalue,so notproof trueoptionEVnegative; cannotclaimpositivecalibratedsize. Currentliveallocation0, hardonepremium<=30,total<=100,max4; quarterprobe cannotrescue invalidquote/failedmandate. Riskfullpremium,notmodelstop. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/BB?feed=indicative andstock-bars.

Premises:CLI node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols BB --strategy breakout --lookback20 --days730 --stop-pct10 --target-pct30 diagnostic returns169.4115%,DD11.1785%,win35.4839%,N31 (501bars), buyhold230.3719%. Noindependentholdoutorcostcalibration inthatCLIresult; nottrustedfortrading. Separatevectorbt testJan2023–Dec2025train/2026holdout: closebreaksprior20/50/100sessionhigh,volume>1/1.5/2xprior20mean,close>SMA200; enterfollowingopen; exitfollowingopen afterclose<SMA20. One share per1000book,10bpfees+10bpslippageeachside, nooptionprices. Fixedbaseline20/1.5 train+.268038%,DD.132377%,win100%,N3;holdout+.428765%,DD.151146%,win100%,N1. Full9parametergridholdout+.18921–.428765%,N1–2; notindependentsamples, samefewtrendepisodes. Baselinefixedbeforeresults; noholdoutbest-selection. Last252high13.59 vs7.99, current52weekbreakoutabsent. Stockproxycannotestablishcalltheta/crush/netoptionedge; oneheldoutwinnernotreplication. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Figures arepercentof1000withone-share exposure, notpercentreturnonpremium.

Premises:13issuer-datedevents; historicaloptionbars retrieved9eventwindows;2023threeevents andApr2025 no bars, notzeros. NearestOTMhalf-dollarput with exactentryclose+.02<=.30; enter two sessions beforepre-eventclose, exitreactiondayclose, firstmonthlyexpiry>=7daysafterreaction. Selectionbeforeexitavailability. Sevenpre2026pairs training,2in2026holdout. vectorbt1000book,onecontract100multiplier,nooverlap,.02/sharefrictioneachside+$1roundtrip. Corrected implementation attaches$1fee atentry andvaluesexit max(mark-cost,0) with1e-6USDfloor to permitliquidation; all9intendedroundtripsreconcile. Initialfixed-exitfee atnearzero proceeds causedrejections andcontaminatedholdings; those unreconciledoutputs discarded. Trainreturn-6.50%,DD8.20%,win14.2857%,N7;holdout-3.80%,DD3.80%,win0%,N2. .05friction train-9.80%/holdout-4.90%;.10train-12.50%/holdout-2.70%N1(changingaffordabilitysample,notimprovement). Callcontroltrain-0.60%,DD2.4534%,win28.57%,N7;holdout-.40%,win0%,N1(noaffordableJune2026call). Marksnotbidasks, endpointDD omitsintra-trade risk; no validated15min -50%/3xexitpolicy. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars and issuerobservations29472–84. Genericcheapoptionsrule fails; historicalmarktestdoesnotveto a futureindependentlyqualifiedtail butcannotjustifythisentry.

Premises: observations29472–84,11trainingevents Jun2023–Dec2025,2heldout Apr/Jun2026. Five separateOLS withintercept predict signedreaction frompreevent distSMA50,mom20,RSI14,RV20,volume/prior20mean; no feature selection ontest. Trainingcorr .37356/.33381/.28807/.30070/-.25249. TestMAE7.9646/11.6317/10.2009/11.6046/8.9444percentagepoints versusconstanttrainingmean11.4514pp. dist50 predicts3.1548/9.0849% vsactual8.2153/19.9536%; missesstrongtail. Strongcollinearity .838–.897 amongtrendfeatures, tinyN andmixedbusiness/time-of-dayregimes make stacking unjustified. Nullbenchmark is trainingmean,not hindsightzero. Valid conditionalfit arithmetic; generalizationunsound withtwoobservations. Priorneutral unchanged; no directionalodds extracted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and13issuerPDFobservations; Pythonregime.py preservescoefficients. Knownhistoricalholdout ischronological notpristineunseenfunddata.

Premises: 931 adjustedSIPdailybars Jan2023–Sep18 2026, explicitdelayed cutoff resolves first403. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Sep18close7.99,SMA20 7.851,SMA50 8.5168,SMA200 6.1538,ATR20 .35762,RV20 56.0907%,volratio1.49556 versusprior20mean,20dayreturn-1.84275%,WilderRSI14 48.42092,252dayhigh13.59. AboveSMA200 butbelow50 andfarbelowhigh is mixedtrend, not52week-higheligibility. Ratio1.4956 is below1.5 threshold, notroundedpass. Event eligibility onlySep24issuer https://investors.blackberry.com/ . In13preeventstates correlations mom20/dist50 .838,RSI/dist50 .876,RSI/mom20 .897; redundanttape transforms notindependentvotes. Trend canflip atsameearnings; stoponoption50%paid,fullpremiumatrisk,notunderlyingATR. No presentbreakouttrade.

Premises: issuer Q1 revenue152.9m, QNX72.3m, ARR220m and92%DBNRR; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070235/000107023526000071/q1fy27ex-991.htm . First order: strongerroyalties/licensing/collections liftreportedrevenue andcash; weakerrenewals orcustomerproductiondelay canhurtcash despite designwins. Second order: sustainedcash fundsR&D/customerqualification andavoids drawingbalance-sheetcash forbuybacks; cashshortfall turnsbuybacks intoassetdepletion. Third order: crediblefuturecash supports rerating andmoreplatforminvestment; weakconversion compressesmultiple andcapacitytoinvest. These areconditionalmechanisms, notmeasuredcausalprices. Named NVIDIA/Leapmotorcollaborations inissuerrelease do notestablish materialcounterpartyearnings sensitivity; noadjacentstockthesis. Strongcounterargument: one quarterly cash figure mixes workingcapital andseasonality, so10mbuybackminus4.6mOCF is not proof structuralburn. P80 absolute move cannot identifywhich branchoccurs. Nofundproposal.

Premises from June25 issuer SEC exhibit https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1070235/000107023526000071/q1fy27ex-991.htm : Q1 FY27 revenue152.9m+26%, QNX72.3m+26%, Secure Communications73.6m+24%, EBITDA36.3m, GAAPoperating15.3m. OCF4.6m is12.67% ofadjustedEBITDA; repurchases10m exceedOCF by5.4m even beforecapex. ARR220m stable/DBNRR92% means quarterly revenue growth cannot be read as universal recurring customer expansion. Cash/investments422.9m provide flexibility but do not establish equity floor; debt/leases/dilution not fully valued thisrun. Q2 guide137–148m revenue,20–30m EBITDA,0–10mOCF versusFY~100mOCF makes seasonality and collections consequential; annualizingQ1 wouldmislead. Prior direction neutral; credible recurring cash and strongerretention would improveupside thesis, a licensing-driven beat withoutcash would weakenit. Who benefits: license customers fromembeddedsoftware, management fromadjustedgrowth optics, shareholders fromactualresidualcash. Strongcounterargument toput: transformedpositivecashbusiness can rerate; strongestcall objection: a26%historicalgrowthrate is already disclosed and does notmeasure surprise. No valuation-derived target or directionalprobability justified. CatalystSep24 08EDTissuer https://investors.blackberry.com/ .

Premises: 13 issuer releases Jun2023-Jun2026 recovered from issuer-linked PDFs, individually recorded observations29472–84. Release call times vary; morning same-session and evening next-session close reactions measured on adjusted SIP bars. Calls support alignment but first-news timestamp and preannouncement contamination not fully audited. All events retained without price-selected deletions. Median absolute close reaction9.1152815%, P8012.832986%; training11 through2025 median9.1153/P8012.6829, chronological holdout2026 two reactions+8.2153/+19.9536%. Bootstrap20k seed91906 95% intervals median6.9860–12.6829%, P8010.0756–22.2767%; IID and mixed business regime assumptions. AtSep18 S7.99 Oct2P7 bid.06 ask.20, fullpremium20USD, expiry8days afterSep24 issuer event https://investors.blackberry.com/ . Hurdle(7.99-7+.20)/7.99=14.893617%; hypothetical P80 downside intrinsic.03535558 =.1767779x premium. Both gates fail; absolute upward move cannot pay a put. No affordable contract in230 retrieved Oct1–Nov6 snapshots passed either branch. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/BB?feed=indicative . Price ceilings atsameS: P7 median negative; P7.5 median.238311 and P80.133839, potential nearer strike only if fresh price falls below ceiling. Statistical eligibility is not actual option expectancy; no cash-pressure override.

Start state100USDfundcash,1000USDequity,noopen/queued ownlots,no empirical tradehistory. Goal=tailparticipation through listed longoptions, not funding-shortfall gambling. Bindingconstraint=usable optionprice/wholecontract and realizedtail, not certainty aboutbusiness. Numbered premises: 1.IssuerSep2 confirms Sep23AMCresults https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; Oct16expiry23dayspast, valid. 2.CurrentS2.84/Oct16P2.5 ask.28 fromindicative https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/SFIX?feed=indicative gives28USDpremium(2.8%equity) butbreak-evenfall21.830986%>N10median16.578014%,P80downpayoff.552156only1.971985x; reject bothmandatebranches. 3.Put at.13LASTTRADE wouldpassgross butisnotavailableask; bestrejectedticket remainsSFIX261016P00002500. 4.Call2.5ask.53 costs53USD>30cap; OTMcall5ask.03 needs77.112676%rise,P80payoffzero. ITMcall actualbreak-evenrise(K+p-S)/S=6.690141%, unlike conservative absolute-strikedistance30.633803% tabulation in exploratoryscript; budgetfailurealone settles it. 5.Costed7-option diagnostic traininggain/2holdoutlosses and modelvolsensitivity cannotbe claimed as validatednetexpectancy. Thereforecash100chosen; marketclosed also prohibitsorders. This is one requesteddeepdive, not proof wholemarketlacks qualifyingtickets. No equity/crypto substitute fitslong-option-onlymandate. Conditionalwatch atunchangedS:median grossceiling.130816,P80ceiling.138039; .02friction medianceiling.110816. FreshRTHlimit/fill may createaffordableprobe: recomputeactualspot,quotes,calendar,netodds/halfKelly; onepremium<=30,total<=100,max4lots. Useentirepremiumasrisk;stop50%paid,target3xpaid ordefendedP80payoff,horizonthroughOct16. Holdthrough onlyifpricedmove<=realizedmedian; ifonlytailbranchpasses butmedianfails, reconcilepre-eventexit rather than secretlychangingholdrule. Do not inventfalsefillorletstubK5substituteformeaningfultail. Fridayindicative spread.25, OPRA403, stalecontractmetadata are executiongaps. Monitors404Monday09:50 and405nextdayoutcome; job276every240min36runs pricecollection only, local2/2HTTP200 passed; rawissuer403viarequests so issuerstatus requireswebreview. Shutdownshortfall doesnotenter payoff orsize.

Premises: historical10overnight gaps from observations29367–76, Sep18 S2.84, Oct16putK2.5. 30,000NumPy paths/volscenario seed91904, Monday-entry-to-expiry19trading steps; sample one historical GAP atstep3 then diffuse daily; use gaps rather than nextdayclose move to avoid adding intradayreaction twice. Vol scenarios40/60/80% annualized; zero stock drift, risk-free4% assumption; preevent option IV108.28% from indicativequote, posteventIV=scenario realizedvol. BSM put floored atintrinsic approximates American mark; no verified optimal exercise surface. Exit at daily observed model mark below0.5premium or above P80target.552156, else horizon. Gaps may pass stop; exitprice not stopguarantee. Fees1USDroundtrip and.01/shareexitslippage. At premium.13 mean dollarPnL -5.2523/-2.5318/+1.1347, stop80.4167/77.89/73.8533%, target7.2333/11.8667/17.7267%, win17.9433/20.62/24.9133%. At.28 allnegative(-18.5996,-16.2792,-13.7725); already failsmandate. At.11 means-3.2232/-.5282/+3.1574. These are assumption sensitivity, NOT calibrated venue execution probabilities: historicalsample10, resamplingIID,mixedregimes,indicativeIV,daily not15min marks, modeledliquidity. P05 loss .13case14USD includingfees; premium stillwhole13USD risk, not6.50stop. Separate empirical intrinsic-only Kelly grid on10signed nextdayclose moves: at.10 meanpayoff.116659,profit30%,halfKelly1.77%account; at.11 halfKelly.70%account; at.13/.28 halfKelly0. Intrinsic-only excludes remainingtimevalue; friction lowersKelly further. It does NOT prove no positive optionexpectancy at.13, but cannot support a confident size. One .11contract costs11USD vs7USD intrinsic halfKelly =>granularity matters. Start100fundcash/1000account, hardpremium30/lot,total100,max4. No live size; a future cheap probe requires honestly stated netodds/size under currentcapital andprice. Data sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/SFIX?feed=indicative .

Premises: ten issuer-dated events observations29367–76; observed option bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars ; full-entry mark plus assumed slippage<=.30 respects30USD premium cap. Rule for diagnostic: atT-3close select nearest OTM put in .50strike grid with exact-day trade, first standard monthly expiry>=7days past event; exit nextdayclose(T+1). Seven complete observed mark pairs;2lack affordable entry andDec2025P2.5 lacks exit. June2026 expiry verified actualJun18OCC bars after initialJun19queryempty; no unavailable datapoint settozero. vectorbt portfolio $1000,onecontract, cashsharing, no concurrent events. Baseline spread/slippage .02pershare EACHside +.50USDfixedfee eachside; endmark floor .0001pershare for distressed sale is modeling assumption. First5pre2026 train+5.05%,maxDD4.195166%,win40%; heldout2026N2 -1.85%,DD1.85%,win0%; pooledN7+3.20%,DD5.882353%,win28.5714%. Sweep .05eachside:train+2.90%,DD4.810361%;holdout-2.20%. .10:trainN3+5.45%,DD2.885572%;holdoutN2-3.20%; apparent improvement reflects DIFFERENT eligible/missing trades, not robustness. Baseline result dominated bySep2024 K3.5 .14->1.03; heldout .10->.01 and.06->.04. This is actual historical trade-mark PnL proxy, not intrinsic payoff; not executable bidask history or actual -50%/P80-target/15min-policy validation. Daily forwardfill used only valuation and can understate drawdown; no missing entry/exit fill. Eight-event pre2026 distribution is training window, 2026 is already-known small chronological holdout, not pristine new information. Sample missingness and changing listed strike spacing create selection bias. Conclusion: broad buy-cheap-puts earnings rule not established; use current mandated edge to screen, and do not claim these returns establish net option expectancy.

Facts originate in Q3 issuer https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx and SEC10Q https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576942/000162828026042504/sfix-20260502.htm . Premises: client count2.309m,RPAC578, cash229.4m, Q3buybacks15.1m>FCF6.52m. 1st order: retained clients keeping more items lift sales, while transportation and product costs can prevent margin conversion. 2nd: successful assortment strengthens vendor purchasing and warehouse utilization; failed demand leaves inventory writeoffs and shipping/return burden. No named supplier has documented material SFIX exposure here, so no adjacent-stock ticket. 3rd: persistent cash creation sustains repurchases and a turnaround rerating; weak retention plus cash payouts shrinks balance-sheet optionality and can amplify downside. Cash-holder protection is strongest counterargument to bankruptcy-like put narratives. On the upside an earnings recovery is not evidence of a short squeeze without borrow/short-position data, which remain unmeasured. Who benefits: clients from better fit/value, vendors from paid orders, shareholders only from cash after stock compensation/dilution and reinvestment; management-adjusted metrics are not that residual. Conclusion: branches justify studying both call/put payoffs but provide no numeric directional probability. New sources agree on these mechanisms; further repeated issuer syndications do not add independence. No separate-book proposal follows.

Premises: Sep18 completed S2.84 below SMA20 3.04725,50 3.504,200 3.9037; low2.81 is252-session low versus high5.94. Latest3.014686m volume=2.015883x prior20mean;20-session return-14.97006%;ATR20 .1217 (4.2852% ofS),RSI14 34.58576 andRV20 41.42043%. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=SFIX&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Combined reading: weak trend with expanded trading near lows, not high-volume 52week-high mandate route. Price/SMA/RSI are transformations of same tape, not3independent signals. Event eligibility comes solely from issuer Sep23AMC https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Date-for-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Fiscal-Year-2026-Financial-Results-and-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Counterexample: lowRSI can precede a large earnings recovery; no directional probability inferred. Do not use stops on stockATR for this option; option stop remains50% of paid premium and entirepremium remains risk. No technical strategy is adopted; no breakout CLI result is substituted for an earnings-option backtest.

Premises: (1) Q3 June10 issuer baseline revenue340.277m+4.7%,active2.309m+.9%q/q yet-1.9%y/y,RPAC578+6.6%; forecasts Q4revenue322–327m and EBITDA7–10m. (2) FCF6.520m while repurchases15.1m: payout2.316xFCF, excess8.58m funded from balance sheet. (3) Cash+investments229.4m/no debt cushions a weak quarter but is not a contractual stock floor. (4) June5 filing shares133.425856m times Sep18 S2.84 implies illustrative equity378.929m/enterprise149.529m excluding lease obligations; cash1.719/share, FYguidedEBITDA midpoint50.5m gives EV/EBITDA2.961x. These mix June share/cash vintage with September price; not a live valuation or liquidating value. Evidence: https://investors.stitchfix.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Stitch-Fix-Announces-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx ; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1576942/000162828026042504/sfix-20260502.htm . Strong put counterargument: profitable cash generation and retained liquidity support renewed recovery; call counterargument: repurchases exceed cash creation and gross-margin pressure offsets ticket growth. Client metric measures accounts active over52weeks, potentially multiple per person; it is not quarterly acquisition. Management benefits from highlighting adjusted EBITDA; shareholders need dilution/capex cash bridge. No target inferred from EBITDA multiple alone. Prior directional-neutral remains: the data permit both tails, not an estimate of event surprise. A new guide/client/FCF change may shift downside probability materially; honest prior only, not calibrated. Valuation/information cannot rescue a contract that fails its price test.

Premises: (1) Ten issuer-dated AMC earnings March2024-June2026, each recorded individually observations29367–76; primary same-company/same-kind sample, no price-selected deletions. (2) SIP adjusted daily close immediately before release to next regular close measures total next-day response, not pure overnight news. (3) S=2.84 Sep18, Oct16 K2.5 put indicative ask .28. Calculation: median abs16.578014%, P80 abs31.413933%; put needs(2.84-2.5+.28)/2.84=21.830986%. P80 downward scenario intrinsic=max(2.5-2.84*(1-.31413933),0)=.552156, only1.971985x ask. Both mandate branches fail. Signed reactions have6negative/4positive; only1/10 exceeds .28 cost,2/10 exceeds .13; mean mapped intrinsic .116659 is NOT option fair value (excludes residual time value). At .13 hurdle16.549296% and P80 ratio4.247351 pass both gross criteria; median ceiling .130816, P80 ceiling .138039. After .02 assumed all-in friction/share, conservative hold-through ceiling .110816; these are limit research levels, not quotes/fills. Training first8 median18.762974%,P8035.440300%; held-out2026 N2 median9.516765%,P8013.806706%. Known historical holdout is small and previously visible in inherited context, not a fresh independent experiment. Gap-only median15.233452%,P8019.073701% yields put P80 intrinsic.201693/ask=.72033x. Bootstrap20k(seed91904) 95% median CI7.990075–30.251626%, P80 CI16.524823–44.347826%; IID/mixed regime assumptions limit these intervals. Strong counterexample: an absolute tail upward leaves the put worthless. Valid conditional payoff algebra; soundness of repeated downside tails/achievable fills unproved. Quotes https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/SFIX?feed=indicative ; bars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Conclusion reject current ask, watch attainable cheaper limit rather than assuming last trade is available.