Stats

A test was done on the stock TCOM, looking at nine times when the company AMC released its earnings from February 2024 to June 2026. The test checked the daily prices from the close of the release day to the close of the next day. The median absolute change was 5.543964% and the mean change was -0.908716%. On September 11, the stock price was $39.02, and on October 16, the call option price was $45.30 and the put option price was $35.40. The test also assumed a $0.05 per share reserve for buying and selling. The results showed that the put option was not a good choice, with only 1 out of 9 times being successful, which is 11.11%. This is below the 40% threshold. Without the reserve, the put option was successful 2 out of 9 times. The test also looked at the expected payout and found that there was no documented case where the actual payout was more than three times the premium. The test used data from option contracts and stock bars. The sources used were option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The test also corrected for a missing quarter and included May 19, 2025, in the results. The old forecast was retained separately. The premises of the test were to reproduce the results exactly in the new SIP bars, and the test confirmed the May 19, 2025, AMC earnings with a next-day return of -5.543964%. The accessible-date sample is now 9, not the full 10 quarter population. The test also looked at the schedule for the second quarter and first half of 2024 and found that the actual PDF confirmed the date but not the first hour. The test kept the +8.564650% next-day sensitivity and did not silently assign AMC. The test also used NumPy to do a bootstrap analysis with a seed of 91208 and found a mean 95% CI of [-6.041939, 4.510271]%. The test found that the price change versus the sample change was separated, and the current costed put was 1/8 on the old population, and adding the May quarter made it 1/9. The cost reserve alone reduced the current put 2/9 gross to 1/9 costed. The test also found that the February 2025 quarter missed the 11.455664% hurdle by -11.387292%. The collection of data used Python requests, which failed twice, and then used Node fetch, which returned 200/926 bars with no pagination. The test also used Yahoo 5y OHLC to provide a separate check, and found that the raw historical levels differed from the SIP adjusted prices, with a maximum overlapping return difference of 0.10619 pp. The final study used SIP throughout, and no event return was selected from Yahoo. The validity of the test was limited by the timing, population, and costs, and none of these established an entry point.

A test of ten issuer-dated scheduled AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026 showed a median absolute change of 4.700378% and a signed mean change of -3.027709% in daily pre-release close to next-session close prices. As of September 11, with an S2.53 stock price, buying a call option for $0.21 or a put option for $0.16, plus $0.05 per share in roundtrip costs, would require a 9.090909% increase or a 9.486166% decrease in the stock price. Both of these requirements are below 40% and are based on a 1/10 probability, which is 10%. The old frozen N9 remains at 1/9, with a median of 5.494505%, and will be preserved separately. There is no documented expected option payoff of three times the investment. The source of this information is the option contracts and the website https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars. The issuer announced on August 25 that it will release its third fiscal quarter 2026 financial results after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026. The October 16 option expiry is 32 days after this announcement, and the default September 11 exit has already passed. The hurdles to overcome are higher than the new median of 4.390531% and 4.785788%, and there is no exception to hold the position. The conclusion is to retain the current $102.12 in cash, as the premises of the current account and fund, with no own trades or holdings, and the mandatory signed gate of 10%, with no three times exception, support this decision. The logic is valid given the mandate, but its soundness is limited by the data, costs, and non-stationarity of the market. There is no account shortfall with a probability input of 349.01. The near-at-the-money October 16 K2.5 call and put options fit a normal premium cap of 25.5297, but affordability is not eligibility. The existing collector receipts for NOK, CAG, LW, GIS, and BB were reviewed, and no new validated candidate was found elsewhere. The cash is bounded to the examined candidates, not by an assertion that there is no edge worldwide. There are no crypto or stocks outside the long option mandate. The due 314 was resolved, and all five jobs are healthy and retained. A new 32208 UTC handoff was accepted, and the 221 September 15 outcomes will be preserved, comparing old N9 and new N10, and regular-session-only execution. The TLX primary status is unknown, and there is no recovered decision or new contract study, and no delay claim. Eight kinds of quantitative and fundamental work were recorded, and there is no FUND proposal.

A test was done on ten scheduled AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026. The test found that the median absolute change in the stock price was 4.700378% and the signed mean change was -3.027709%. On September 11, the stock price was $2.53. To make a profit from buying a call option or selling a put option, the stock price would need to increase by 9.090909% or decrease by 9.486166% by October 16. This is because the cost of the call option was $0.21 and the cost of the put option was $0.16, plus an assumed $0.05 per share in roundtrip costs. The old frozen N9 remains at 1/9, with a median of 5.494505%, and will be preserved separately. There is no documented expected option payoff that is three times the cost. The source of this information is the option contracts and the website https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars. The company High Tide Inc announced that it will release its third fiscal quarter 2026 financial results after the financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026. The October 16 expiry is 32 days after this announcement. The hurdles to make a profit from the options exceed the new median of 4.390531% and 4.785788%, and there is no exception to hold the options. The stock closes are not executable asks, and the intrinsic value is not the actual option profit or loss. There are four points to consider: pre-announced German volume is up 33% from the previous quarter, the goal is to capture financially the earnings surprise at a qualifying option cost, the binding constraint is a 10% coverage and no three times expected option payoff, and the source of this information is the company's website. The first order hypothesis is that direct procurement could raise Remexiang gross profit, the second order effect is that inventory and receivables may grow with tonnage, and the third order effect is that financing pressure could reduce equity upside. A strong counterargument is that one cash catch-up quarter could produce a large positive jump despite a weak median. However, there is no evidence to assign a required probability to this possibility, and actual collections and incremental guide are required.

A test of earnings announcements from ten issuers, including High Tide Inc, found that the median absolute change in stock price on the day of the announcement was 4.700378%. High Tide Inc is scheduled to announce its third quarter 2026 financial results after markets close on September 14, 2026. To profit from this announcement, the stock price would need to increase by 9.090909% or decrease by 9.486166% from the September 11 closing price of $2.53. The company's previous quarterly report showed record revenue of $179.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $13.9 million. The company also announced preliminary guidance for the third quarter, including a minimum 30% increase in revenue and 27% increase in gross profit. However, this guidance is already known and not expected to be a surprise on September 14. The company's cash flow and working capital will be important factors to watch, as evidence of strong cash flow and a positive surprise could change the view on the stock. A news scan found the headline 'High Tide to Announce Third Fiscal Quarter 2026 Financial Results' on the company's website.

The automated trading fund manager performed an edge test on ten issuer-dated scheduled AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026. The test found that the median absolute change in stock price was 4.700378% and the signed mean change was -3.027709%. As of September 11, the stock price was $2.53, and the October 16 call option was priced at $0.21, while the put option was priced at $0.16. To break even, the stock price would need to increase by 9.090909% or decrease by 9.486166%. The manager also considered an old frozen position, which had a median return of 5.494505%. The manager did not find any documented expected option payoff. The source of the data was option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The issuer announced that it would release its third fiscal quarter 2026 financial results after markets close on September 14, 2026. The manager simulated various scenarios, including a NumPy seed of 91206 and 100,000 paths each side, and found that the hurdles exceeded the new median. The manager also found that the closes were not executable asks and the intrinsic value was not the actual option profit and loss. The manager ran three scenarios: a call option with a mean intrinsic value of $0.213531, a put option with a mean intrinsic value of $0.571515, and a scenario with full residual 32-day option value and IV spreads absent. The manager found that the call option had a maximum return of 1.588571 times the premium and the put option had a maximum return of 2.155093 times the premium. The manager also found that the worst-case scenario for the call option was a loss of 72.988% of the book and the worst-case scenario for the put option was a loss of 22.568% of the book. The manager approved a size of 0 for the trade and had a monthly shortfall of $349.01. The fund had $102.12 and the account had $850.99. The normal size for the trade was 3% of the fund, which was $25.5297, and the conviction size was 5% of the fund, which was $42.5495.

A test was done to see if there was an edge in trading based on earnings announcements from ten issuers with scheduled announcements from March 2024 to June 2026. The test looked at the daily close before the announcement and the close of the next session, and found a median absolute change of 4.700378% and a signed mean change of -3.027709%. On September 11, the price of S was 2.53, and on October 16, the call option price was 0.21 and the put option price was 0.16, with an assumed roundtrip cost of 0.05 per share, which would require a change of +9.090909% or -9.486166% to be profitable, but both of these are below 40%. The old frozen N9 remains at 1/9, with a median of 5.494505%, and will be preserved separately. There is no documented expected option payoff of three times the investment. The source of the data is option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars. The issuer announced on August 25 that it will announce its third fiscal quarter 2026 financial results after the financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026, which is 32 days before the October 16 expiry. The hurdles to be exceeded are 4.390531 and 4.785788, which is higher than the new median, so there is no exception to hold. The closes are not executable asks, and the intrinsic value is not the actual option profit and loss. The test also looked at the following: 1. The daily SIP baseline on September 11, which had a 20-session return of 9.051724%, an RSI of 56.263135, and an annualized return of 36.111156%. The indicator history begins in January 2023, and was computed prior to each AMC event without any event response input. 2. The Spearman correlation over ten event responses, which found a correlation between RSI and momentum, but no significant correlation. The comparisons were exploratory and did not claim significance. The test also found that the current positive 20-day trend cannot be converted into an earnings call win probability, and that the new German mix may change the future jump distribution, but there are only three post-2025 year-end events and one pre-announced 2025 comparison, which is insufficient to measure it. The regime division is descriptive, not causal regression or a new entry rule.

The automated trading fund manager performed an edge test on ten issuer-dated scheduled AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026. The test compared the daily pre-release close to the next-session close, with a median absolute change of 4.700378% and a signed mean of -3.027709%. As of September 11, the S2.53 and October 16 K2.5 call at $0.21 and put at $0.16, plus assumed roundtrip costs of $0.05 per share, require a return of +9.090909% and -9.486166% respectively. Both of these returns are below 40%. The old frozen N9 remains at 1/9, with a median of 5.494505%, and will be preserved separately. The source of the data is from option contracts and websites including https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars. High Tide Inc announced that it will release its third fiscal quarter 2026 financial results after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026. The October 16 expiry is 32 days after this announcement, and the default September 11 RTH exit has already elapsed. The hurdles exceed the new median of 4.390531 and 4.785788, with no hold exception. The closes are not executable asks, and the intrinsic value is not the actual option profit and loss. The manager performed a successful single 15-minute probe before a 10-session batch with 2 workers, recovering 260 out of 260 expected RTH 15-minute bars. The manager mapped current costed percent hurdles onto each historical pre-close and inspected 15-minute opens. The underlying diagnostic is not an option quote. The call hurdle hits at any sample 1/10, and the put hurdle hits at 2/10. None of the sample hits establish an option 3R target or fillable quotes. The actual venue 15-minute check phase is unverified. The daily versus intraday aggregation differences are retained, and the frozen mandate uses daily bars. The current S2.53 is above the SMA20 of 2.501 and SMA50 of 2.3244, with an ATR20 of 0.08099. The pre-event positive level does not justify failed signed option coverage, and no exits were moved because the results were flat.

An edge test was conducted on ten issuer-dated scheduled AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026. The test found that the daily pre-release close to next-session close had a median absolute change of 4.700378% and a signed mean change of -3.027709%. As of September 11, the S2.53 and October 16 K2.5 call and put prices were.21 and.16, respectively, with assumed roundtrip costs of.05 per share, requiring a 9.090909% and -9.486166% change, respectively. Both of these changes are below 40%. The old frozen N9 remains at 1/9, with a median of 5.494505%, and will be preserved separately. There is no documented expected option payoff. The source of the data is option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and /data/option-bars. The issuer announced on August 25 that financial results will be released after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026. The October 16 expiry is 32 days after this date. The hurdles exceed the new median, and there is no hold exception. The closes are not executable asks, and the intrinsic value is not the actual option profit or loss. The test used a vectorbt926SIPallbarsJan2023–Sep11 2026, buying at the T-2/3/5 US session open and exiting at the T-1 close before the AMC date, with an initial investment of 1000, fees of 10 basis points, and slippage of 10 basis points each side, and stress of 30 basis points lippage. The results of the test are as follows: the T5 train had a return of 3.867305%, a drawdown of 11.915644%, and a win rate of 42.857143%, while the holdout had a return of -2.631698%, a drawdown of 5.363985%, and a win rate of 66.666667%. The stress holdout had a return of -3.793140% and a win rate of 33.333333%. The corrected train T3 now has the highest return of 4.438587%, but the holdout has a return of -4.762379% and the stress holdout has a return of -5.898406%. The model selection is unstable. The T2 train had a return of 3.842905%, the holdout had a return of 2.134481%, and the stress holdout had a return of 0.916186%. The required CLI momentum 20/days 1000 diagnostic had 685 bars, with a return of 26.210635%, a drawdown of 44.737554%, and a win rate of 29.629630%. The buy and hold return was 55.246914%. There is no historical option return, drawdown, or win rate available, and there is no options order from stock proxy. The costs are assumed rather than measured, and the daily close execution proxy does not validate 15-minute option stops.

An automated trading fund manager performed an edge test on ten issuer-dated scheduled AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026. The test found that the daily pre-release close to next-session close had a median absolute percentage change of 4.700378% and a signed mean of -3.027709%. On September 11, the price of S2.53 and the cost of an October 16 call option of $0.21 and a put option of $0.16, plus assumed roundtrip costs of $0.05 per share, required a percentage change of +9.090909% or -9.486166% to be profitable. However, both of these percentages were below 40%. The manager also reviewed old frozen data from N9, which had a median percentage change of 5.494505%, and decided to preserve it separately. The manager found that the issuer, High Tide Inc, announced that it would release its third fiscal quarter 2026 financial results after financial markets close on Monday, September 14, 2026. The manager also reviewed prior observations from N9, which skipped September 2025 without a recovered exclusion rationale. The manager added a new observation, N10, and retained the frozen N9 forecast. The manager also reviewed training data from 2024-25 and holdout data from 2026, and found that the results did not meet the mandatory gate, resulting in a rejection. The manager noted that the sample size was small and non-stationary, and that the data was limited to US listing data and stale put marks. The manager also noted that there was no population-wide calendar claim, and that the premise of the test was that residual time value could make options profitable, but there was no priced or executable evidence to quantify this exception.

A news scan found the headline about Nokia's October earnings. The fund manager tested 11 morning earnings reports from January 2024 to July 2026 for US-traded Nokia shares, looking at the daily price change from the day before to the day of the report. The median absolute change was 5.864627%, with a range of -8.474903% to 11.444479%. The manager considered buying a call option that would expire on October 30, which needed a 21.293801% increase in the stock price, and a put option that needed a 17.520216% decrease, including a 0.05 per share roundtrip cost. However, neither of these options was affordable, with prices of 0.45 for the call and 0.27 for the put. The manager also looked at other options, including a call option that would expire on November 20, but none of these options met the required criteria. The manager decided not to buy any options because they did not meet the required payoff, which is three times the expected option payoff. The sources used for this analysis were Nokia's financial calendar, option contracts, and stock and option data from two websites. The manager started with 850.99 in account equity and 144.67 in cash, and the goal was to buy a convex long option, which means an option that increases in value when the stock price increases. The manager considered seven different options, but none of them were affordable. The manager also considered the risk of the options and the cost of buying them, and decided that it was not possible to buy an option that met the required criteria. The manager's logic was that if the mandatory gate, which is a required condition, was not met, then the trade should be rejected. The manager's analysis was limited by the assumed costs, small regimes, early releases, and stale or non-executable rates. The manager did not place any orders and did not have any holdings or exits. The manager received a verified receipt on October 3 and will renew the analysis on October 12 for October 22 coverage.

The edge test analyzed 11 issuer-dated morning earnings from January 2024 to July 2026, looking at US ADR daily prices before and after the release. The median absolute change was 5.864627%, with a range of -8.474903% to 11.444479%. For example, on September 11, the price was 11.13, and on October 30, the call option with a strike price of 13 had a price of 0.45, which would need a 21.293801% increase to be profitable, considering a roundtrip cost of 0.05 per share. However, none of the options met the required criteria, with 0 out of 11 being profitable, and the premium cap was exceeded in some cases. The test also found that there was no documented option payoff that was three times the expected payoff. The expiry date of October 30 was eight days after the issuer's date, and the default exit was on October 21. The sources used for this analysis include Nokia's financial calendar and option contracts data. The test results showed that the intrinsic mapping was not the actual option profit and loss. The test was run with a numpy seed of 91204 and 100,000 resamples. The results showed that all 11 intrinsic values were zero, and a hypothetical scenario with 27 dollar premiums plus 5 dollar costs each would result in a loss of 100%. The test also found that the full premium was at risk, with a normal account size of 25.5297 and a conviction account size of 42.5495. The model used was a half Kelly model with a negative expected net, and the approved size was 0. The test also considered a countercase where an unobserved large jump or residual value may pay, but this was not enough to waive the mandate of a 40% or 3x gate.

A test of pre-earnings stock controls for Nokia, which is a company that issues its earnings reports, found that the controls failed in both training and holdout periods. The test looked at 11 instances of morning earnings reports from January 2024 to July 2026, and found that the median absolute change in the stock price was 5.864627%, with a range of -8.474903% to 11.444479%. Two specific options, Sep11S11.13 and Oct30C13.45, needed to increase by 21.293801% and decrease by 17.520216% respectively to be profitable, including assumed roundtrip costs of $0.05 per share. However, neither of these options was profitable, and the test found that no documented option payoff exceeded three times the expected payoff. The test used data from various sources, including Nokia's financial calendar and option contracts. The test also used a trading strategy that bought stocks five days before the earnings report and sold them the day before the report, with a daily adjusted SIP and fees of 1 basis point and slippage of 5 basis points on each side. The test found that this strategy had a return of -14.811928% in the training period and -3.318922% in the holdout period. The test also found that increasing the slippage to 15 basis points resulted in returns of -16.164092% and -3.897272% in the training and holdout periods respectively. A sensitivity test found that changing the parameters of the strategy did not result in any positive returns. A separate test of a momentum-based strategy found a return of 144.635118%, but this strategy was not directly comparable to the original test. The test concluded that the pre-earnings stock controls did not work as intended, and that the results did not validate the use of this strategy for live trading.

A test of 11 issuer-dated morning earnings from January 2024 to July 2026 for US ADR daily prior-close to release-close showed a median absolute change of 5.864627%, with a range of -8.474903% to 11.444479%. On September 11, the price was $11.13, and on October 30, the call option with a strike price of $13.45 needed a 21.293801% increase, while the put option with a strike price of $9.5 needed a 17.520216% decrease, including assumed roundtrip costs of $0.05 per share. However, both options had a 0% success rate, and the premium cap was exceeded. A news scan found the headline of Nokia's financial calendar for 2026. The test also used data from option contracts, stock bars, and option bars. The closes were not executable asks, and the intrinsic mapping was not the actual option profit and loss. There are three key points to consider: first, more AI optical orders require manufacturing capacity and working capital before cash; second, customer funding can enable purchases, but Nokia also invests in partners, and financing inflow to Nscale is not payment to Nokia; third, capacity expansion and competitor response may raise volume while compressing returns, and customers can benefit before equipment shareholders. Additionally, Nscale's 2025 $1.1 billion Series B discloses Nokia's equity participation and IP/optical partnership. A public networking event with Nokia and VAST was held on October 21, but it did not promise orders or results. The strongest counterargument is that demand may structurally increase upside beyond old carrier-cycle earnings, but this is not established. There is no separate fund, and supply/capital themes already fit existing books without a new validated signal.

The automated trading fund manager performed an edge test on Nokia's earnings from January 2024 to July 2026. The test looked at the daily price change of Nokia's US ADR from the day before to the day of the earnings release. The median absolute price change was 5.864627%, with a range of -8.474903% to 11.444479%. On September 11, the price was 11.13, and on October 30, the call option with a strike price of 13.45 needed a 21.293801% increase to be profitable, while the put option with a strike price of 9.5 needed a 17.520216% decrease. However, neither of these options was profitable, even when considering the assumed roundtrip costs of 0.05 per share. The catalog of option contracts showed that the premium cap was exceeded for some contracts. The expiry date for the options was October 30, eight days after the issuer's October 2026 earnings release. The default exit strategy was to sell on October 21, with no exceptions due to the hurdle rates exceeding the median. The sources for this information include Nokia's financial calendar, option contracts, and stock and option bars data. The closes were not executable asks, and the intrinsic mapping was not the actual option profit and loss. The manager also noted that the issuer's Q2 orders were roughly half of the expected revenue for the next 12 months, with a total of 1.4 billion euros and a monthly average of 116.7 million euros. The full report for Q2 showed an operating cash flow of -620 million euros, minus 112 million euros in net capital expenditures, resulting in a free cash flow of -732 million euros. The manager concluded that while there were cash constraints, the payment timing could reverse and did not prove permanent losses. The book value was 3.79 euros per share, and the USD ADR spot price should not be divided by the EUR book value without considering the foreign exchange rate. The manager also noted that there was no fair value target from mixed currencies. The premises of the analysis were based on direct issuer figures, which were considered reliable as reported. However, the inference of a cash surprise was unproven, and new evidence would be needed to change the prior assumptions. This evidence could include actual cash conversion or paid acceptances and cheap nearer contracts, rather than another partnership headline. The issuer and partner promotional incentives were recognized, but there was no probability of a 3x payoff from the growth rate.

The edge test analyzed 11 morning earnings reports from January 2024 to July 2026 for Nokia, looking at the daily price change of its US ADR from the day before to the day of the release. The median absolute change was 5.864627%, with a range of -8.474903% to 11.444479%. On September 11, the stock price was $11.13, and on October 30, the call option with a strike price of $13.45 needed a 21.293801% increase to be profitable, while the put option with a strike price of $9.5 needed a 17.520216% decrease. However, neither of these options was profitable, even when considering a $0.05 per share roundtrip cost. A catalog of options from November 20 to September 11 showed that the premium cap of 51.0594% was exceeded, and there was no documented three times expected option payoff. The test used a joint filter with a simple moving average, or SMA, of 200 days and a relative strength index, or RSI, between 50 and 70. The current trend passes this filter, but only five historical events matched this filter, which is not enough to replace the original 11 events with a favorable subset. The combination of filters may describe a momentum regime, but the thresholds were not optimized or adopted. The current positive trend does not cancel the binary priced distance, and the test has explicit limitations, including missing foreign exchange and option implied volatility regimes. The sources used for this test include Nokia's financial calendar, option contracts, and stock and option bars data from Aditya Perswal's website.

A test of Nokia's stock trend recovery from January 2024 to July 2026 showed that the median absolute change in the stock price on the day of earnings releases was 5.864627%. The range of changes was from -8.474903% to 11.444479%. For example, on September 11, the stock price was $11.13, and to reach the strike price of $13.45 by October 30, the stock would need to increase by 21.293801%. A news scan found the financial calendar for 2026 on Nokia's website. The test also showed that the premium for some option contracts exceeded the cap of 51.0594%. The test used data from various sources, including stock and option bars. The results showed that the stock's close price on September 11 was $11.13, which is above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index was 60.974432. The 20-day return was 5.397727%, and the annualized log return volatility was 42.145303%. The trend could continue before October 22, but it does not imply a 21.29% jump in the stock price. The test also considered the possibility of a persistent drift in the stock price, which could result in profits for long calls before earnings, but this would require actual option costs and forward prices, not just the event distribution.

A test of Nokia's earnings from January 2024 to July 2026 found that the median absolute change in the stock price on the day of the earnings release was 5.864627%. The range of changes was from -8.474903% to 11.444479%. For example, on September 11, the stock price was $11.13, and to reach the target price of $13.45 on October 30, the stock would need to increase by 21.293801%. However, this did not happen, and the option to buy the stock at $13.45 on October 30 was not profitable. A news scan found the headline 'Nokia Corporation lowers 2025 operating profit guidance due to currency' on the Nokia website. The test also found that the stock price did not move as expected after the earnings release, and the options to buy or sell the stock were not profitable. The test used data from the Nokia website, option contracts, and stock prices. The test was done on 11 earnings releases from 2024 to 2026, and the results were compared to the median change in the stock price. The test found that the stock price did not move as expected after the earnings release, and the options to buy or sell the stock were not profitable. The sources used for the test include the Nokia website, option contracts, and stock prices.

A news scan found the headline about a broad US recovery and dated-event rejections justifying Convex cash. An edge test was performed on CAG, which is a stock ticker, and it showed a median absolute percentage of 2.064410% for morning earnings from July 2024 to July 2026. This test also showed that the current trade requires a percentage increase of 8.904110% and 7.876712%, including an assumed cost of 0.05%. Another test was performed on LW, which is also a stock ticker, and it showed a median percentage of 13.153864% for morning events from July 2024 to July 2026. The mean mapped intrinsic value of LW was calculated to be 1.498726 USD per share, which is 2.724957 times the current premium and 2.497877 times the assumed all-in cost. However, this is not the actual option expectancy. The dates for the earnings releases were found on the websites of the companies, including Conagra Brands, which will release its fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings on September 30, 2026, and Lamb Weston, which will release its earnings on October 6, 2026. The expiries for the options are 9 to 10 days after the earnings releases. The account started with 850.99 USD and 178.71 USD in the fund, with no open, closed, or pending trades. The goal is to find a qualified convex long option with whole premium, signed coverage, and regular session. A directory of 13181 securities was used, with delayed bars from 2024 and 1157 missing bars. The filter used was for securities with a price between 1 and 20 USD and a turnover of at least 1 million, which resulted in 1554 securities. The primary checks were for ACVA, TNON, NOK, and MARA, and seven non-US and crypto quotes could not be validated. No orders were closed, and no qualified edge was found. The maximum number of tickets is 3, with a premium strict normal of 3% and conviction of 5%, and an absolute cap of 6%. The profit shortfall is 349.01 USD, and there is no 3R target that is defensible on rejected options. The cash of 178.71 USD was written due to failed gates, and nothing in the world qualifies for investment. The prospective collectors and monitors will be preserved for the next research on October 4 UTC.

A test of Conagra Brands, or CAG, showed that from July 2024 to July 2026, the median absolute change in the stock price on mornings when the company announced its earnings was 2.064410%. On September 11, the stock price was $14.60, and on October 9, the price of a call option, or a contract to buy the stock at a certain price, was $15.5. To buy this option would require a return of 8.904110% or 7.876712%, including a cost of 0.05%. The test also looked at a put option, or a contract to sell the stock at a certain price, which would require a return of -4.041096% or -5.136986%. A news scan found the headline that Conagra Brands would release its fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings on September 30, 2026. Another company, Lamb Weston, or LW, would release its earnings on October 6, 2026. The test also showed that the median change in the stock price of LW from July 2024 to July 2026 was 13.153864%. The test used a method called intrinsic value, which means the value of the stock based on its actual worth, not its market price. The results of the test were not good, with a mean, or average, loss of 1.498726 USD per share, which is 2.724957 times the current premium, or price, of the option. The test also showed that buying a put option on CAG would not be a good idea, with a 40% chance of losing money and no expected payoff. The test used historical data from option contracts and stock prices, but the results are not executable, meaning they cannot be used to make actual trades. The test also used a method called resampling, which means creating new sets of data from existing data, to simulate different scenarios. The results of the test were that the mean terminal value, or the value of the stock at the end of the test, was 107.7455, with 88.596% of the scenarios losing money, and 47.218% of the scenarios losing all three times. The test also showed that each ticket, or option contract, would require a return of more than 5% to be profitable, even with an old price. The test was deliberately not current, and did not include residual time, changing volatility, spreads, correlated returns, and 15-minute exits. The result was that the size of the trade was approved to be 0, meaning that buying a put option on CAG would not be a good idea.

A news scan found the headline about Conagra Brands' earnings release on September 30, 2026. An edge test for CAG, which is a ticker symbol, showed a median absolute return of 2.064410% from July 2024 to July 2026. This test, which is a type of evaluation, used morning earnings data from nine issuer-dated events. The test required a return of 8.904110% and 7.876712% for two specific trades, including a 0.05% cost. However, the test failed to meet these requirements. Another test for LW, which is another ticker symbol, showed a median return of 13.153864% from July 2024 to July 2026. This test used eight issuer-dated morning events and also failed to meet its requirements. The mean mapped intrinsic value for LW was 1.498726 USD per share, which is a measure of the option's value. The test results showed that there was no 40% pass or documented 3x expected payoff, which means the test did not meet its expected outcomes. The dates for the tests were August 31, 2026, and September 8, 2026, with expiries 9-10 days after. The historical originals recorded 25518+ and 25563+, which are data points used for the tests. The tests used a strategy called RSI, which stands for Relative Strength Index, a measure of stock price movement. The tests also used a CLI, which is a Command-Line Interface, and a vectorbt, which is a backtesting tool. The results of the tests are as follows: 1. The required CLI node showed a return of -1.73228%, a drawdown of 14.21016%, and a win rate of 51.85185%. 2. The separate vectorbt showed a return of -8.9501% for the training period and 2.5160% for the held-out period. The held-out period is a test period that is not used for training. The results showed that there was no trained winner and no adoption, which means the test did not produce a successful outcome.

A test of stock prices, called an edge test, looked at the earnings of Conagra Brands, whose ticker symbol is CAG, from July 2024 to July 2026. The median absolute change in earnings was 2.064410%. On September 11, the stock price was $14.60, and on October 9, it was $15.50. The test also looked at Lamb Weston, whose ticker symbol is LW, and found a median change of 13.153864% from July 2024 to July 2026. The stock price on September 11 was $47.85, and on October 16, it was $57.50. The test found that the current stock price requires a return of 8.904110% and 7.876712% for CAG, and 21.003135% and 21.065831% for LW. The test also found that the premium, or the amount paid for an option, is greater than the absolute cap, or the maximum amount that can be lost. The mean, or average, mapped intrinsic value of LW is $1.498726 per share, which is 2.724957 times the current premium and 2.497877 times the assumed all-in cost. However, this is not the actual option expectancy. The test did not find a 40% pass or a documented 3x expected payoff. The test omitted October 1, 2024, due to ambiguity about the release hour, but adding the reaction on October 2 yields a median change of 10.017371%, which also fails. The test used data from Conagra Brands and Lamb Weston, including their earnings releases and stock prices. The test found that the historical originals recorded 25518+ and 25563+, and the sources used were option contracts and stock bars. The test also found that the closes were not executable asks. There are three possible effects of food pricing and broad-screen leaders: first, price concessions may lead to retailer and restaurant input relief, which may lead to supplier margin pressure, which may eventually restore pricing; second, the acquisition of ACV Auto by Copart for $10.50 cash may leave a stock spread of 0.864553%, and the expanded dealer platform may lead to cross-sell and logistics, which may lead to competitor response; third, the repayment of $5.16 million in notes by TNON may remove the discount conversion and depend on the remaining cash, but this has already happened on September 9, and there is no future entry. The sources used were the press releases and filings of the companies involved. There is no new fund proposal without a net costed strategy.

A test of the stock market edge found that the median absolute change in the stock price of Conagra Brands (CAG) on the morning of its earnings announcements from July 2024 to July 2026 was 2.064410%. On September 11, the stock price was $14.60, and on October 9, the stock price was $15.5. To achieve a certain level of return, an investment would require a gain of 8.904110% or 7.876712%, assuming a cost of 0.05%. A news scan found the headline that Conagra Brands will release its fiscal 2027 first-quarter earnings on September 30, 2026. Similarly, Lamb Weston (LW) had a median absolute change in its stock price of 13.153864% on the morning of its earnings announcements from July 2024 to July 2026. The stock price was $47.85 on October 16, and the catalog price was $57.5. The mean mapped intrinsic value of LW was $1.498726 per share, which is 2.724957 times the current premium and 2.497877 times the assumed all-in cost. However, this is not the actual option expectancy. The historical originals recorded were 25518+ and 25563+. The sources of this information include option contracts and stock bars data. A review of the earnings reports found that Conagra Brands reported a free cash flow of $978.7 million, which is a decrease of 24.9%, and a net debt of $7.1 billion, which is 3.83 times the earnings. The company guided an EPS of $1.40 to $1.50 for fiscal year 2027, with a margin of 10 to 10.5% and organic growth of -3 to -1%. Lamb Weston reported a volume increase of 7% and a price-mix decrease of 7% in its primary quarter. The company also reported a write-off of $32.5 million and an improvement in operating cash flow of $110.3 million, less a working capital benefit of $130 million. The demand weakness benefited price-sensitive buyers, and cost cuts and capital expenditure restraint could stabilize cash, countering puts. The sources of this information are biased towards the issuers, and the outcomes are not independently audited.

A test of the edge of the CAG joint regime, which is a strategy used by an automated trading fund manager, found that the median absolute return of nine issuer-dated morning earnings from July 2024 to July 2026 was 2.064410%. The test looked at the prices of certain options, including Sep11S14.60 and Oct9C15.5, and found that they required returns of 8.904110% and 7.876712% respectively, including a assumed cost of 0.05%. The test also looked at the prices of other options, including P14.5 and P40, and found that they required returns of -4.041096% and -17.554859% respectively. The mean mapped intrinsic value of the LW P40 option was 1.498726 USD per share, which is 2.724957 times the current premium and 2.497877 times the assumed all-in cost. However, this is not the actual option expectancy. The test found that there was no 40% pass or documented 3x expected payoff. The test omitted the October 1, 2024 event due to release hour ambiguity, but adding the October 2 reaction yields 3/9 and a median return of 10.017371%, which also fails. The test used data from the Conagra Brands and Lamb Weston websites, including the dates of upcoming earnings releases, which are September 30, 2026, and October 6, 2026, respectively. The test also used historical data from option contracts and stock bars. The rules for combining price and RSI, or Relative Strength Index, which is a measure of the magnitude of recent price changes, are as follows: combine price below 20/200 SMA, or Simple Moving Average, and RSI 35.52. This is neither oversold, which is typically below 30, nor proven earnings direction. The test found that nine events were insufficient for fitting a joint conditional filter, and that subselecting losers after seeing the outcome is not allowed. The full sample entry gate was retained. Prior expectation of weak cash may favor puts, but improved guidance can rally despite weak trailing cash. The test requires prospective outcome and costed option history before changing the rule.

A test was done to see if the price of CAG is low enough to consider buying a put option. The test looked at the median absolute change in CAG's stock price after morning earnings announcements from July 2024 to July 2026, which was 2.064410%. On September 11, the stock price was $14.60, and on October 9, a call option with a strike price of $15.5 was available. To make this option profitable, the stock price would need to increase by 8.904110% or 7.876712%, including a cost of $0.05. However, the current stock price of $14.60 requires a decrease of 4.041096% to be profitable, and the current premium of $0.60 requires a decrease of 5.136986%. Another stock, LW, had a median absolute change in stock price of 13.153864% after morning events from July 2024 to July 2026. The test also looked at the moving averages of CAG's stock price, with the 20-day moving average at $15.796 and the 200-day moving average at $15.38265. The average true range, or ATR, which measures price volatility, was $0.41226, and the relative strength index, or RSI, which measures the stock's recent price changes, was 35.5222. The test found that the current put option price of 5.137% is not a good value, as it is below the expected cap, and the cost of $0.60 is too high. A reversal in the stock price could change this analysis, and the test did not find any technical reason to buy the put option.

A test of Edge found that the current contracts for CAG and LW are not acceptable. For CAG, the test looked at the median absolute change in the stock price on mornings when the company released its earnings, which was 2.064410% from July 2024 to July 2026. The test also looked at specific prices, such as 14.60 on September 11 and 15.5 on October 9, and found that the current trade of 0.20 on September 11 would require a change of 8.904110% or 7.876712% including a cost of 0.05. For LW, the test found a median change of 13.153864% from July 2024 to July 2026, with specific prices such as 47.85 on October 16 and 57.5 on the same day. The test also found that the current premium was more than 51.0594 times the absolute cap. The mean mapped intrinsic value of LW was 1.498726 USD per share, which is 2.724957 times the current premium and 2.497877 times the assumed all-in cost. However, this is not the actual option expectancy. The test did not find any 40% pass or documented 3x expected payoff. The test omitted October 1, 2024, due to ambiguity about the release hour, but adding the reaction on October 2 still yielded a failure. The dates for the events were: CAG on August 31, with a morning Q&A on September 30, 2026, before 9:30 ET, and LW on September 8, with a release approximately at 8 ET and a call at 9 ET on October 6, 2026. The expiries were 9 or 10 days after the events, with default exits on September 29 or October 5 RTH. The historical originals were recorded as 25518+ and 25563+, with sources including option contracts and stock bars. The closes were not executable asks. The test looked at two things: daily signed stock reactions mapped to current strike and premium, and price and turnover screens. However, the price and turnover screen is only for discovery and is biased towards current listings, with no independent probability estimates. The test found that the most recent 2026 N2 for CAG was both negative and less than 1.26%, with no put cost coverage, and that the historical tail in October 2024 does not guarantee a repeat. For LW, the test found that the N8 vs 9 sensitivity both failed 40%, with a correlation of 0.985243 between four shared release dates. The validity of the test requires a gate, but the observed gates failed, so the test rejects the current contracts. The soundness of the test is limited by the closes, corporate adjustments, small samples, and LW timing. A counterexample is that residual time could make real options worth more than their intrinsic value, but without actual net option history, this does not document mispricing.