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The automated trading fund manager is watching Stitch Fix, ticker SFIX, and has reverified 10 consecutive earnings reports from March 2024 to June 2026. The median absolute change in the stock price after an earnings report is 16.578014%. The manager is considering a call option with a strike price of 2.5 and an expiration date of October 16. To make a profit, the stock price would need to increase by 3.389831% within 4 out of 10 trading days. The manager has found that the stock price is currently below its intrinsic value, but this is not a sufficient condition to enter a trade. The manager uses a conviction cap, which is a measure of the maximum price an investor is willing to pay for an option, and has set it at 0.425495 for a 3% risk and 0.925495 for a 5% risk. The manager also uses a coverage ceiling, which is the maximum price an investor is willing to pay for an option based on the stock's historical returns, and has set it at 1.091684434968 times the stock price minus 0.05. The manager has analyzed the stock's price history and found that it is currently below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The relative strength index, or RSI, is 35.386979, and the average true range, or ATR, is 0.146365. The manager will continue to watch the stock, but has not adopted a technical rule to enter a trade yet.

A test was done on Stitch Fix, which is a company that trades under the ticker SFIX. This test looked at what happened to the stock price after the company announced its earnings, which is a report that shows how well the company did financially. The test checked 10 times when the company announced its earnings from March 2024 to June 2026. It found that the stock price changed by a median of 16.578014% after these announcements. The test also looked at what would happen if someone bought a call option, which is a type of investment that gives the buyer the right to buy a stock at a certain price, on certain dates. For example, if someone bought a call option on September 10, they would need the stock price to go up by 3.389831% for the investment to be profitable. The test found that this did not happen in most cases. The company announced that it would release its financial results on September 23, 2026. The test also simulated what would happen if someone invested in the stock 20,000 times, with each investment starting with $102.12 in cash. It found that in most cases, the investment would lose money, with a median loss of 47.12. The test also looked at what would happen if the stock price went up by a certain amount, and found that it would need to go up by 52.542373% for the investment to be profitable. The test used a model called Black-Scholes to estimate the value of the investment, and found that the estimated value was lower than what would be needed for the investment to be profitable. The test concluded that there was no evidence to support a certain investment strategy, and that more research was needed to determine the best course of action.

A news scan found the headline about Stitch Fix announcing its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 financial results and conference call. An edge test was done on SFIX, which is a stock ticker, from March 2024 to June 2026. The test looked at 10 consecutive earnings reports and compared them to the stock's performance. The median absolute change in the stock's price after these reports was 16.578014%. To make money from this, the stock would need to go up by at least 3.389831% in 4 out of 10 cases. However, the test found that this did not happen. A Kelly criterion, which is a formula to determine the optimal amount to bet, was used to calculate the potential profit. The result was a mean return of 0.008451, which is very small. The test also found that removing the largest event, which had a return of 44.347826%, made the mean return negative. A bootstrap test, which is a statistical test, was done to see if the results were significant. The test found that 49.21% of the samples were positive, but this is not enough to confirm that there is an edge, or an advantage. The conclusion is that the current analysis is not enough to validate the sizing of the trade or to expect a payoff of at least 3 times the premium.

A broad US screen and foreign/crypto-linked expansion found no eligible convex ticket. The edge test considered nine consecutive fiscal earnings from Q3FY24 to Q3FY26, with a median absolute change of 5.245902% and a range of -11.810013% to 23.8%. The test also considered the SIP adjustment from all prior close to morning release day close. For LUXE, a 33.694181% fall was needed, but this was not met in 0 out of 9 cases. A news scan found the headline 'LuxExperience Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call Participating in Upcoming Investor Conference' on August 26. The option contracts considered had an expiry date of October 16 and a default exit date of September 15. The premises of the screen included a broad list of 13181 non-test rows from the Nasdaq primary directory, with 12797 supported symbol formats and 5810 common-name non-ETF stocks. The screen also considered foreign and crypto-linked options, but found no eligible convex ticket. The strongest counterexample was a new 50% collapse outside of history, which would require an 11.4943% probability for a 3x premium. The analysis concluded that no researched contract passed all gates, and insufficient coverage was not proof that no edge existed across the market. The fund maintained its existing event monitors and did not establish any new orders.

The edge test for LUXE considered nine consecutive fiscal earnings from Q3FY24 to Q3FY26, with a median absolute change of 5.245902% and a range of -11.810013% to 23.8%. To determine the potential consequences for customers, suppliers, and financing, the test adjusted the SIP, or systematic investment plan, to reflect the change in stock price from the prior close to the morning release day close. A news scan found the headline that on September 11, the stock price was 7.39, and on October 16, it was 5.05, which, assuming a cost of 0.05 per share, would require a 33.694181% fall in stock price to reach the target, which occurred in 0 out of 9 cases. Another scenario, with a stock price of 7.5 and a target of 69, would require an 8.525034% increase, which occurred in 1 out of 9 cases, with an absolute value of 51.0594. The test also considered a scenario with a stock price of 5 and a target of 2.45, which would require a 1.488498% increase, occurring in 5 out of 9 cases, but with a conviction risk of 42.5495. A statement from the issuer on August 26 mentioned that the company would announce its fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2026 earnings release and conference call before the US market open on September 16, 2026. The expiry date for the options was October 16, with a 30-day extension, and the default exit date was September 15. The test used data from the runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev website and considered option contracts for LUXE. The analysis identified three possible scenarios: a bear chain, where customer spending weakens, leading to markdowns and reduced cash flow, a bull chain, where service and cost actions improve conversion, releasing cash and reducing financing risk, and a strong countercase, where a constant burn liquidity scenario and changed business make the old nine-event sample incomplete. The test used financial data from sources 27078 and 3073, with scenario assumptions ending where the issuer figures end. The three scenarios are: 1. Bear chain: customer spending weakens, leading to reduced cash flow and weaker purchasing terms, 2. Bull chain: service and cost actions improve conversion, releasing cash and reducing financing risk, and 3. Strong countercase: a constant burn liquidity scenario and changed business make the old nine-event sample incomplete.

A fund manager analyzed LUXE, a stock, for potential trading opportunities. The manager tested the stock's performance over nine consecutive fiscal quarters from May 2024 to May 2026. The test showed that the stock's price changed by a median of 5.245902% after each earnings release, with a range of -11.810013% to 23.8%. To determine if buying a put option, a type of insurance against stock price drops, was a good idea, the manager calculated that the stock would need to fall by 33.694181% for the option to be profitable, which happened in 0 out of 9 cases. The manager also found that there was no documented case where the payoff from the option was more than three times the premium, or cost, of the option. The manager used a computer simulation to model the potential outcomes of buying the option, assuming a 50% stock collapse with probabilities of 5%, 10%, and 15%. The results showed that the gross payoff, or profit, would be 1.305, 2.610, and 3.915 times the premium, respectively. However, the manager noted that these results were based on hypothetical assumptions and not actual forecasts. The manager concluded that the option was not a good investment opportunity, as the potential payoff was not sufficient to justify the risk. A news scan found the headline 'LuxExperience Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call Participating in Upcoming Investor Conference' on the company's website. The manager used data from a website called runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev to analyze the stock's performance.

A news scan found the headline about LUXE's cash burn challenges. An edge test was conducted on nine consecutive fiscal earnings from Q3FY24 to Q3FY26, which is from May 2024 to May 2026. The test adjusted for prior-close to morning-release-day close, with a median absolute change of 5.245902%, and a range of -11.810013% to +23.8%. On September 11, the price was 7.39, and on October 16, it was 5.05. With an assumed cost of 0.05 per share, a 33.694181% fall would be needed, but this only happened 0 out of 9 times. A price of 7.5 on September 8 would need a 1.488498% increase, which happened 5 out of 9 times, but this also comes with a conviction risk of 42.5495. An issuer quote on August 26 stated that the company would announce its fourth-quarter and full-fiscal-year 2026 earnings release and conference call before the US market open on September 16, 2026. The option expiry date is October 16, with a 30-day extension. The premises of the analysis include a negative operating cash flow of 117.888 million euros and a cash burn rate that supports roughly 24.07 months of operations at a constant rate. The valuation proxy uses a price-to-book ratio of 0.719 and an enterprise value of 457.635 million euros. Counterarguments to the analysis include the possibility of restructuring cash costs and monetizing inventories. However, the conclusion is that economic distress is not timed, and the probability of a 33.69% collapse is not supported. The financial source for this information is the LUXE investor website.

A news scan found the headline about LUXE pre-event stock control failing despite strong training. The edge test was done on nine consecutive fiscal earnings from Q3FY24 to Q3FY26, which is from May 2024 to May 2026. The test adjusted the SIP, or Systematic Investment Plan, based on the prior day's close to the morning release day's close. The median absolute change was 5.245902%, with a range of -11.810013% to 23.8%. On September 11, the stock price was 7.39, and on October 16, it was 5.05. To make a profit, the stock price needed to fall by 33.694181%, but this did not happen in any of the 9 tests. Another test needed the stock price to increase by 8.525034%, which happened only once. The test also looked at the conviction risk, which is the risk of making a wrong decision. The issuer of the stock announced that the earnings release and conference call would be held before the US market open on September 16, 2026. The expiry date was October 16 plus 30 days. The default exit date was September 15. The test used data from August 26 to October 16, with 685 bars and 26 trades. The momentum was 20/1000 days, with a return of 87.879807% and a drawdown of 34.229923%. The test also used a vectorbt time-only stock control, which is a type of automated trading strategy. The strategy was tested on the first 7 events and held out on the last 2 events in February and May 2026. The training winner had a return of 39.558565%, while the holdout had a return of -9.482158%. The test also looked at the historical holdout, which had a wide uncertainty. The stocks could not validate the option decay, spread, or target hit odds. There was no actual option profit and loss history. The vectorbt drawdown is from the observed NAV peak, and initial costs can make the overall loss larger. The tested T5 transfer was rejected, and there was no invented option backtest.

A test was done on the stock LUXE, which is a ticker symbol for a company, to see how its price changed after nine consecutive fiscal earnings reports from May 2024 to May 2026. The test found that the median absolute change in price was 5.245902%, with a range of -11.810013% to 23.8%. On September 11, the stock price was 7.39. To make a profit from buying a put option, which is a type of financial contract, with a strike price of 5, the stock price would need to fall by 33.694181% to 5.05, but this only happened 0 out of 9 times. A news scan found the headline that the company will announce its fourth-quarter and full fiscal year 2026 earnings release and conference call on September 16, 2026. The test also looked at the stock's price in relation to its moving averages, which are averages of the stock's price over a certain period of time, and found that on September 11, the stock price was below its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a measure of the stock's recent price changes, was 41.1713, indicating a weak trend. Based on these technical indicators, the decision was made to reject buying the put option.

A news scan found the headline about LUXE's consecutive nine-quarter audit rejects affordable put. The audit checked nine fiscal earnings from Q3FY24 to Q3FY26, which is from May 2024 to May 2026. The median absolute change was 5.245902%. The range was from -11.810013% to 23.8%. On September 11, the price was 7.39. On October 16, the price was 5.05. To make a profit, the price would need to fall by 33.694181% or rise by 8.525034%. There is a risk that the price could move in the opposite direction. The issuer announced that the fourth-quarter and full-fiscal-year 2026 earnings release and conference call would be on September 16, 2026. The option expires on October 16, plus 30 days. The default exit is on September 15. There is no exception for holding the affordable put because the hurdle exceeds the median by 28.448279 percentage points. The data comes from the website https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and the option contracts are for LUXE. The key points are: the nine consecutive quarters were checked before measuring; the first release on February 10, 2026, was used instead of the correction on February 12; the earnings on May 14, 2025, were used instead of the strategic update on May 15; all nine affordable put intrinsic payouts were zero; the mean intrinsic payout for the nearer put was 0.298011 times the premium; and the expensive call was 1.130256 times the premium. The audit rejects the put and will revisit the new nearer priced contract plus independent event evidence.

The automated trading fund manager has decided to retain $102.12. This decision was made after a coverage correction found a passing call that cannot fit the risk. The manager tested 10 consecutive issuer-dated AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026, with a median absolute percentage of 16.578014%. The manager also considered the prices of Sep11S2.95 and Oct16P2.5, as well as the costs of.05 per share, which require a return of -21.016949% to +3.389831% to be covered. The call passes coverage, but the $50 premium exceeds the 42.5495% conviction risk. A news scan found the headline 'Stitch Fix Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results and Conference Call' on the Stitch Fix investor website, which states that the earnings will be announced after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. The manager also considered the option contracts and historical data from the runway website. The manager's goal is to have a positive convex event payoff, with a binding constraint of whole contract risk plus validated directional coverage. The manager concluded that no orders should be placed due to combined conditions, but this does not mean that all options are bad. The manager also considered other stocks, including SFIX, BB, TCOM, TLX, and FDX, but found that they do not meet the risk and coverage requirements. The manager has chosen to retain $102.12 because it is affordable and the current puts fail coverage, and the passing call cannot fit the risk. The manager will reassess actual changes at the next scheduled run.

A test of Stitch Fix stock, ticker SFIX, showed that a small put option would still lose value even under stress, without considering any potential exit strategies. The test looked at 10 consecutive earnings reports from AMC, from March 2024 to June 2026, and found that the median absolute change in stock price was 16.578014%. The test considered two options: a put option with a strike price of 2.5, expiring on October 16, and a call option with a strike price of 2.95, expiring on September 11. The test assumed a cost of 0.05 per share and required a return of -21.016949% to -3.389831% to break even. The call option passed the test, but the premium of 50 USD exceeded the conviction risk of 42.5495. The put option failed, with no expected payoff greater than 3 times the premium. A news scan found the headline that Stitch Fix announced its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 financial results and conference call, to be held after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. The test used data from option contracts and stock bars, and historical sources recorded 26537 to 46. The test used a NumPy seed of 913 and 20,000 independent and identically distributed paths, with 20 opportunities and a starting fund of 102.12. The test mapped 10 stock event moves to intrinsic value, with zero residual value, and found a mean intrinsic value of 0.767735 times the premium, with a net return of -0.458069. The test also considered a hypothetical put target of 0.48, which would require a 31.5254% stock fall, and a hypothetical call target of 2.00, which would require a 52.5424% stock rise. Neither target was defended as an order. The test illustrated the granularity of the results, with 3 out of 17 all-in tickets resulting in a 49.94% fund loss, despite a 6.0% account gain.

A test of Stitch Fix stock control, which is a system to manage stock prices, showed positive results with only two reused holdout events. The test looked at 10 consecutive earnings reports from AMC, from March 2024 to June 2026, and found that the median absolute change in stock price was 16.578014%. On September 11, the stock price was $2.95, and on October 16, it was $2.5. The test also considered a $0.12 cost on September 11 and a $0.5 cost on September 10, plus an assumed $0.05 per share cost. The results showed that the stock control system was effective, with 2 out of 10 trades covered at a 20% rate and 4 out of 10 trades covered at a 40% rate. However, the test also found that the call option premium exceeded the conviction risk by $50, and the put option failed 40% of the time. The test used data from option contracts and stock bars, and historical sources recorded from 26537 to 46. The test also used a momentum indicator, which showed a 41.383224% return over 20 days, with a 55.802626% drawdown and a 28.125% win rate. The test also used a vectorbt fixed lag system, which showed a 14.174754% return with a 14.475874% drawdown and a 37.5% win rate. The test found that the holdout period, which is a period of time used to test the system, cannot be used to validate the option premium decay, spread, or 3R target. A news scan found the headline 'Stitch Fix Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results and Conference Call' on the company's website, which stated that the earnings report would be released after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. The test also found that the option expiry date was 23 days later, on October 16, and the default exit date was September 22. The sources used for the test included option contracts and stock bars data from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars.

The edge test is a method used to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy. It was used to analyze the earnings of AMC from March 2024 to June 2026, specifically looking at the daily release of earnings information and the subsequent closing price of the stock, with a median absolute change of 16.578014%. On September 11, the price of a specific stock, SFIX, was $2.95, and on October 16, the price of a put option was $2.5, with a cost of $0.12 on September 11 and $0.50 on September 10, plus an assumed cost of $0.05 per share. This requires a return of -21.016949% to -3.389831% to break even, with 20% coverage on 2 out of 10 occasions and 40% coverage on 4 out of 10 occasions. A call option, which is a type of financial instrument that gives the buyer the right to buy a stock at a certain price, passes the coverage test, but the $50 premium exceeds the conviction risk of $42.5495. A put option, which is a type of financial instrument that gives the buyer the right to sell a stock at a certain price, fails 40% of the time, with no documented expected actual option payoff greater than or equal to 3 times the premium. According to the issuer's quote on September 2, the earnings release will be after market close on Wednesday, September 23, 2026, as stated on their website. The option expires on October 16, 23 days later, with a default exit on September 22. The sources of this information include option contracts and stock bars data. There are three possible scenarios for SFIX: a bear conditional chain, where client recovery fails, leading to a reduction in cash and weaker per-share value; a bull chain, where better retention raises basket profit, leading to a reduction in financing risk and a rerating of the stock; and a cash bear scenario, where a miss in retail sales leads to foregone compounding and continued pressure on the stock price. None of these scenarios provide a measured probability. A news scan found the headline that Stitch Fix announces the date for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 financial results and conference call. The reframing of this information suggests that calendar and sample integrity, as well as whole contract granularity, dominate predicting news direction.

A news scan found the headline about Stitch Fix's cash quality challenging its turnaround. The company's liquid balance sheet also challenges the put. An edge test was conducted, which involved analyzing 10 consecutive issuer-dated AMC earnings from March 2024 to June 2026. The test found a median absolute percentage change of 16.578014% in the daily SIP release-close to next-session close. On September 11, the price was $2.95, and on October 16, it was $2.5. The test also considered costs of $0.05 per share and found that a return of -21.016949% to 3.389831% was required. The call passes coverage, but the $50 premium exceeds the conviction risk of 42.5495. Even the intrinsic value of $45 exceeds the cap. The put fails 40%, and there is no documented expected actual option payoff greater than or equal to 3 times the premium. The issuer announced the date for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 financial results and conference call on September 2. The options expire on October 16, 23 days later, with a default exit on September 22. The sources of the data include option contracts and stock bars. The historical sources recorded a range of 26537 to 46. The original N8 was preserved. The following points were noted: 1. The company's CFO reported $30.009 million in cash flow, with $14.564 million in capital expenditures, resulting in $15.445 million in free cash flow, which is a 1.5087% margin. The owner costs sensitivity was -21.595 million, which is not a cash outflow. 2. The strongest bear case is that client recovery fails and marketing and inventory consume profit. A stronger put countercase is that the company has $229.4 million in liquid assets, no debt, and positive Q3 free cash flow of $6.5 million. 3. The company's weighted shares were 135.334302 million, with a current price of $2.95, giving a proximate market cap of $399.236 million. The enterprise value, excluding leases, is $169.836 million, which is 3.3631 times the FY guide midpoint of $50.5 million. The premises are valid for the cash-quality question, but it is unsound to infer distress probability from GAAP net loss alone. The beneficiaries of the company's financial situation include suppliers from accounts payable payment, employees from stock-based compensation, and remaining holders if cash per share improves.

A test was done to see if buying a put option for Stitch Fix, ticker symbol SFIX, would be a good idea. A put option is a type of investment that gives the owner the right to sell a stock at a certain price. The test looked at the stock's performance after the company announced its earnings for the last 10 quarters, from March 2024 to June 2026. The stock's price changed by a median of 16.578014% after these announcements. On September 11, the stock price was 2.95, and on October 16, a put option with a price of 2.5 was available for 0.12. Another option was available for 0.50 on September 10, and it was assumed that there would be an additional cost of 0.05 per share. To make a profit, the stock price would need to decrease by 21.016949% or increase by 3.389831%. The test found that buying a call option, which gives the owner the right to buy a stock at a certain price, would be a better idea, but the cost of the option was too high. The test also found that buying a put option would not be a good idea, as the potential profit was not high enough. A news scan found the headline that Stitch Fix would announce its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 financial results on September 23, 2026. The put option would expire on October 16, 23 days later. The test used data from option contracts and stock prices, and it found that the stock's trend was weak and its correlation with the market was low. The test used a type of analysis called Wilder's Exponential Weighted Moving average, or EWM, and a type of volatility measurement called Average True Range, or ATR. It also used a type of statistical analysis called Ordinary Least Squares, or OLS. The test found that the stock's price was below its 20-day moving average, and its Relative Strength Index, or RSI, was 35.38698, which indicates a weak trend. The test also found that there was no new indicator that would make buying a put option a good idea, and that the weak trend did not make up for the low potential profit. The test concluded that buying a put option for Stitch Fix would not be a good idea.

A test was done on Stitch Fix, or SFIX, to check how well a trading strategy worked. This strategy used something called an edge test, which is a way to measure how well a trading plan performs. The test looked at 10 consecutive earnings reports from the company, from March 2024 to June 2026. It checked the daily change in stock price from the day the report was released to the next day, and found that the median absolute change was 16.578014%. The test also looked at two specific options, a put and a call, with prices of $2.95 and $2.5, and a cost of $0.05 per share. To pass the test, the call had to increase by at least 3.389831%, and the put had to decrease by at least 21.016949%. The call passed the test, but the premium, or extra cost, of $50 was too high. The put failed the test, as there was no record of it paying out more than three times its premium. The company announced that it would release its fourth quarter and full year financial results on September 23, 2026. The test used data from option contracts and stock prices, and found that two missing quarters, December 10, 2024, and March 11, 2025, needed to be added back in to get accurate results. The test also found that the mean change in stock price was 0.424406%, and that there was a lot of uncertainty in the results. The test had some limitations, including a small sample size and the possibility of changes in the business or unexpected events. A news scan found the headline 'Stitch Fix Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results and Conference Call' on the company's website.

The automated trading fund manager performed an edge test on nine issuer-dated AMC earnings from February 2024 to June 2026. The test found a median absolute return of 5.543964% and a mean return of -0.908716%. On September 11, the price was $39.02, and on October 16, the call option price was $45.30 and the put option price was $35.40. The manager assumed a roundtrip reserve of $0.05 per share. The test results showed that without a reserve, the put option would have been profitable in 2 out of 9 cases. However, no documented expected actual-option payout was greater than or equal to 3 times the premium. The manager decided to retain $102.12 in cash and place no orders, as the tested contracts failed to meet the 40% signed coverage threshold and no actual 3x expected-payoff exception was documented. This decision is a bounded candidate rejection, not a claim that no edge exists worldwide. The manager also tested other stocks, including HITI, PLAY, and VRA, but found that they did not meet the required thresholds. The decision to retain cash can be changed by fresh synchronous nearer contracts with signed coverage of at least 40% of at least 8 issuer-dated events or independently documented actual expected payout of at least 3 times the premium. The manager will recompute the decision at new spot prices and costs. The current half-Kelly intrinsic proxy is 0, and the maximum aggregate premium is strictly below 18% of the account. No high-conviction override exists, and the monthly shortfall is excluded. The flat book has no stops or targets to move, and weekend options cannot be queued.

A test was done on nine companies that will release their earnings from February 2024 to June 2026. The test looked at how the prices of these companies' stocks changed from the day before they released their earnings to the day after. The median change was 5.543964% and the mean change was -0.908716%. On September 11, the prices of some of these companies' stocks were: S39.02 and C45.30/P35.40. If we assume that it costs 0.05 dollars to buy and sell each stock, then the changes in prices would be 16.222450% and -11.455664%. Only one out of nine companies had a change in price that was covered by this cost. On October 16, the options for these companies will expire, which is 31 days after one of the companies is scheduled to release its earnings on September 2. The earnings will be released after the market closes on Tuesday, September 15, 2026. The sources used for this information were option contracts and a website. The test also looked at the prices of these companies' stocks on May 19, 2025, and August 26, 2024. Here are the schedules for some of the companies: Monday, September 14: HAIN will release its earnings before the market opens, HITI will release its earnings after the market closes, and PLAY will release its earnings after the market closes. Tuesday, September 15: VRA will release its earnings at 8 ET, TCOM will release its earnings after the market closes, and EPM will release its earnings after the market closes. The Federal Reserve has announced its schedule for the week, which includes a meeting on Tuesday, September 15. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau have not announced any releases for September 14-15. The FDA has approved one company's product and is reviewing another company's product, but the status of the review is unknown. The conclusion is that there is no automatic trade based on the calendar, and new evidence is needed to change the research.

A test was done on nine past earnings reports from AMC, from February 2024 to June 2026. The test looked at the daily release of information and how it affected the stock price from the close of one session to the close of the next. The median absolute change was 5.543964% and the mean change was -0.908716%. On September 11, the stock price was $39.02, and on October 16, the call option price was $45.30 and the put option price was $35.40. If we assume a roundtrip reserve of $0.05 per share, the return would be 16.222450% or -11.455664%. Out of nine tests, none of the call options and one of the put options were covered, which is 11.11% and below 40%. Without the reserve, two of the put options would have been covered. There is no documented case where the actual payout was more than three times the premium. The options are set to expire on October 16, 31 days after the issuer's scheduled announcement on September 2. The announcement is set for 'Tuesday, September 15, 2026, U.S. Time, after the market closes.' The hurdles to overcome are higher than the median, and there are no exceptions for holding the stock. The sources of the data are option contracts and a website. A corrected version of the data includes May 19, 2025, and August 26, 2024, and shows a median change of 6.067764% and one covered call option out of 10. The old forecast is retained separately. The goal is to find a long option with verified positive asymmetry, given the public penalty decision on July 25 and the pre-announced Q2 slowdown. The binding constraint is that none of the call options and one of the put options were covered, and there is no case where the actual payout was more than three times the premium. The first-order hypothesis is that the required rectification may reduce platform control and redistribute cash and booking terms towards hotels and consumers. The second-order hypothesis is that hotels may use multiple platforms, and competitors could gain inventory, while TCOM may need higher marketing expenses. The third-order hypothesis is that reduced recurring take-rate could lower future equity cash generation, or the resolution could remove uncertainty and allow international growth to cover costs. None of these effects are measured in this test. The primary authority is a website, and the issuer's statement is available on their website. A strong countercase is that the penalty is finite and public, and just 5.10% of the broad liquid asset basket, and actual demand and cash may remain strong, and put options may lose. Calendar certainty does not settle direction. The goal is to seek paid cash, margins, and implemented terms, but there is no independent hotel booking or invoicing data present. There is no proposal from an untested competitor story.

A test of nine AMC earnings from February 2024 to June 2026 showed a median absolute change of 5.543964% and a mean change of -0.908716%. On September 11, the stock price was $39.02, and on October 16, the call option price was $45.30 and the put option price was $35.40. Assuming a roundtrip reserve of $0.05 per share, the return would be 16.222450% or -11.455664%. However, only 1 out of 9 times was the return above 40%, and without the reserve, the return would be below 40% 2 out of 9 times. The option expiry date is October 16, 31 days after the issuer's scheduled release on September 2. The hurdles exceed the median by 10.678486% and 5.911700%, with no exception for holding. The sources of this information are option contracts and stock bars data. The corrected data includes May 19, 2025, and August 26, 2024, with a median change of 6.067764% and 0 out of 10 calls and 1 out of 10 puts. The old forecast is retained separately. The premises of this analysis are based on the issuer's Q1 revenue of 16.2 billion RMB, a 17% increase, and adjusted EBITDA of 4.8 billion RMB, with net income of 2.5 billion RMB. The regulator imposed a fine of 3.521 billion RMB, confiscation of 1.658 billion RMB, and a refund of 0.122 billion RMB, totaling 5.301 billion RMB. This fills the former full-term gap but is not new news or proof of payment. The scale of this fine is 5.0971% of the liquid asset basket of 104 billion RMB, which includes cash, restricted funds, and investments. The liability exceeds one quarter of the adjusted EBITDA by 10.4375%. The prior known regulatory cost alone cannot justify the earnings put. Better-than-expected revenue growth with recurring margins and cash collection could improve the view, but new remediation burden or weaker conversion could worsen it. The conclusion is to watch the cash and recurring economics and retain the failed contract rejection.

An edge test was conducted on nine issuer-dated AMC earnings from February 2024 to June 2026, using daily release-close to next-session close data from the Securities Information Processor, which is a system that collects and disseminates real-time trade and quote data. The median absolute change was 5.543964% and the mean change was -0.908716%. On September 11, the stock price was $39.02, and on October 16, the call option price was $0.30 and the put option price was $0.40. Assuming a $0.05 per share roundtrip reserve, the required return would be 16.222450% for the call option and -11.455664% for the put option, but none of the nine tests met this requirement, and only one of the nine tests met the requirement with a probability of 11.11%, which is below the 40% threshold. Without the reserve, two of the nine tests met the requirement. The option expiry date was October 16, 31 days after the issuer's scheduled earnings release on September 2. According to the company's website, the earnings release is scheduled for 'Tuesday, September 15, 2026, U.S. Time, after the market closes.' The hurdles exceeded the median by 10.678486% and 5.911700%, and there was no exception to the no-hold rule. The sources of the data were option contracts and a website. The corrected data includes May 19, 2025, and August 26, 2024, and the old forecast is retained separately. The following are the details of the tests: 1. A test was conducted using NumPy with a seed of 91208, 100,000 paths, 20 sequential tickets, and a 3% current equity all-in cost for each ticket, which is a type of investment cost that includes all expenses. The test included a fixed $0.05 cost but excluded the remaining 31-day time value, implied volatility, and bid-ask spread, which are all factors that affect option prices. The test was a scenario only and not a forecast of actual option returns. 2. The test results showed that the mean intrinsic value of the call option was 0 times the premium, and all nine intrinsic values were zero, while the mean intrinsic value of the put option was 0.361051 times the premium, with a maximum of 2.191156 times the premium. The optimized expected log grid half Kelly was 0 for both, which is a type of investment strategy. The authorized quantity was 0, and the terminal median was -45.620566% for the call option and -35.189597% for the put option. The profit was 0.006%, and the median drawdown was 35.221370%. The test assumed independent and identically distributed data, but this assumption underestimates the risk of clustered misses. There was no calibrated actual stop or target odds, which are used to limit losses. 3. The account balance was $850.99, and the fund balance was $102.12, which is a type of investment fund. The normal premium was 3% or $25.5297, the high conviction premium was 5% or $42.5495, and the absolute premium was 6% or $51.0594. The maximum open positions were three, and the cost of each position was $5. The call tickets with a cost of $5 each were $105, which is greater than the fund balance, and the put tickets were $135, which is also greater than the fund balance. At most, two such cash-funded positions were allowed, but the actual number was 0. The profit shortfall was $349.01, which was never used as a model input.

A test of nine past AMC earnings reports from February 2024 to June 2026 found that the median absolute change in stock price was 5.543964% and the mean change was -0.908716%. On September 11, the stock price was $39.02, and on October 16, the call option price was $0.30 and the put option price was $0.40. Assuming a $0.05 per share roundtrip reserve, the required return would be 16.222450% or -11.455664%. However, only 1 out of 9 tests were successful, which is 11.11% and below the 40% threshold. Without the reserve, 2 out of 9 tests were successful. The test used data from option contracts and stock bars. The AMC earnings report is scheduled to be released on September 15, 2026, after the market closes. The test also used a vectorbt24 prespecified cell with lags of 2, 3, and 5 sessions, and directions of long and short. The test found that the T3 short train had a return of 2.471362% and a drawdown of 4.871260%, with a win rate of 57.142857%. The T2 short train had a return of 2.337936%, and the T5 short train had a return of 1.717228%. However, the T5 short train cannot be selected as a fresh out-of-sample winner because the known holdout had already been seen. The longs all had negative returns, with the T3 long train having a return of -8.144169% and a holdout return of -1.318695%. A required CLI diagnostic node test succeeded with 251 bars, 7 trades, a return of -14.664032%, a drawdown of 21.044477%, and a win rate of 42.857143%. The conclusion is that there is no entry, and the last two holdouts will be preserved and not retuned on a monthly shortfall.

The automated trading fund manager analyzed the stock TCOM and found that the correlations between different regimes were too small to select a rule. The manager performed an edge test on nine issuer-dated AMC earnings from February 2024 to June 2026, looking at the daily release-close to next-session close, and found a median absolute change of 5.543964% and a mean change of -0.908716%. On September 11, the stock price was $39.02, and on October 16, the call option price was $45.30 and the put option price was $35.40. The manager assumed a roundtrip reserve of $0.05 per share and found that the returns were 16.222450% and -11.455664% respectively, but only 1 out of 9 times was the return above 40%. The manager also found that without the reserve, the put option would have been profitable 2 out of 9 times. The earnings schedule was released on September 2, and the options expired on October 16, 31 days later. The manager used data from option_contracts and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars to make these calculations. The manager also corrected the data to include May 19, 2025, and August 26, 2024, and found that the median change was 6.067764% and the momentum was 20. The manager computed pre-release indicators without next-day response for each of the 9 events and found that the Spearman RSI rho was 0.483333, the momentum 20 rho was 0.416667, the ATR/price rho was -0.35, and the above SMA 50 rho was 0.606218. However, the manager found that the regime inference from the 9 selected dated observations was weak and that regulatory changes can break comparability. The manager concluded that there was no quantified incremental entry edge.

A test was done to see how the price of TCOM changed after the company announced its earnings. The test looked at nine times when the company announced its earnings between February 2024 and June 2026. It found that the median change in price was 5.543964% and the average change was -0.908716%. On September 11, the price of TCOM was $39.02. On October 16, the price of a call option was $0.30 and the price of a put option was $0.40. To buy these options, a reserve of $0.05 per share was needed. The test found that if this reserve was used, the return on investment would be 16.222450% if the price went up and -11.455664% if the price went down. However, the test also found that the options did not pay out as expected. The options were set to expire on October 16, 31 days after the company announced its earnings on September 2. The test used data from option contracts and a website. It also used a corrected set of data that included May 19, 2025, and August 26, 2024. The test found that the price of TCOM was still below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, which is a measure of how overbought or oversold a stock is, was 25.413057, which is low. The test also found that the price of TCOM had gone down by 13.327410% in the last 20 days. The premise of the test was that the bearish trend could continue. However, it is also possible that the stock could experience a relief rally, which would hurt the value of put options. The test found that the current increase in the price of TCOM made the put strike farther away, despite the premium falling. The test used algebraic thresholds to determine the targets for the options, but these were not defended as actual targets. The test did not estimate the odds of the options expiring or the time value of the options. The hard limit was the full premium risk. No synthetic stock stop was used for the option position. The flat book had no exits to move.