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CNXC91106 Exit
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the following text: Premises for the CNXC91106 T-5 time exit train with 50 basis points per side are as follows. The first premise is called Freeze2229, which involves the issuer's advance dates, entering at T-5 open and exiting at T-1 close, excluding event sessions for after-market close and before-market open announcements. Announcements must be made before the entry date, and same-day unknown release times are excluded. The second premise involves a SIP adjustment using all 1451CNXC and 1470SPY daily bars through 2026-09-10, training from 2021 to 2024, and a chronological holdout from June 2025 to 2026. The exit is based on a fixed calendar time with no stop, and is for research control only, not eligible for live policy. The third premise uses vectorbt with long-only orders, fees of 5 basis points, and slippage of 45 basis points on each side. Compounded returns and trade counts are reconciled manually, and initial cash is included in the mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows per day are for bookkeeping and are not intraday data. Fractional capital reinvestment is used as a proxy, and adjusted prices are not raw executable stops. Mean excess return is the difference against the full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, not exposure-matched alpha. The conclusion is that there will be no adoption because all training variants had negative compounded returns, and a positive holdout in T3 cannot rescue a failed train. Sources include issuer URLs individually in observations 24553-24575 and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Limitations include a selected company, retrospective calendar recovery, 2023 Web help overlap, 22 events, possible early news, costs assumed, and 15-minute and +2R policy separate.
return-6.55
drawdown16.03
win rate46.67
sample15
mean_pct-0.33
avgwin_pct3.67
avgloss_pct3.83
targets0
worst_pct-10.77
mean_excess_pp-0.69
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 Exit
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A trading fund manager made notes about a trading strategy called CNXC91106. The strategy has three main points: first, it uses certain dates to decide when to buy and sell, excluding days when important events happen before the market opens or closes, and only considering announcements made before the trading day starts. Second, the strategy uses historical data from 2021 to 2024 to train, and from June 2025 to September 10, 2026, to test, with a fixed exit time and no stop-loss, and it only considers buying, not selling, with fees of 5 basis points and slippage of 25 basis points on each side. Third, the strategy uses a method called vectorbt to make trades, and it calculates returns and trade counts manually, including the initial cash in the calculations, and it uses a proxy for reinvesting capital. The strategy compares its performance to the performance of the SPY stock, and it reports the results of different variants without choosing a winner. The conclusion is that the strategy did not work well, with all variants having negative returns during the training period, and even the best variant during the testing period could not make up for the losses. The sources of the data are listed, including a website, and the limitations of the strategy are noted, including the use of data from only one company, and the possible effects of early news and costs.
return-11.16
drawdown21.18
win rate28.57
sample7
mean_pct-1.65
avgwin_pct1.2
avgloss_pct2.78
targets0
worst_pct-5.64
mean_excess_pp-1.39
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 Exit
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the following text: Premises for the CNXC91106 T-5 time exit train, with a 30 basis points per side fee, are as follows. The first premise is based on Freeze2229, which involves the issuer's advance dates, entering at T-5 open and exiting at T-1 close, excluding event sessions for after-market close and before-market open announcements. Announcements must be made before the entry date, and same-day unknown release times are excluded. The second premise involves a SIP adjustment using all 1451CNXC and 1470SPY daily bars through 2026-09-10, with training from 2021 to 2024 and a chronological holdout from 2025 to June 2026. The exit is based on a fixed calendar time, with no stop, and is for research control only, not eligible for live policy. The third premise uses vectorbt from orders with a long-only direction, fees of 5 basis points, and slippage of 25 basis points on each side. Compounded returns and trade counts are reconciled manually, and initial cash is included in the mark-to-market drawdown. Synthetic two rows per day are for bookkeeping and are not intraday data. A fractional capital reinvestment proxy is used, with adjusted prices and not raw executable stops. Mean excess pp is the difference against the full T-5/T-1 SPY interval, and is not exposure-matched alpha. The conclusion is that there will be no adoption, as all training variants had a negative compounded return, and the T3 positive holdout cannot rescue the failed train. Sources include issuer URLs individually in observations 24553-24575 and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. Limitations include a selected company, retrospective calendar recovery, 2023 web help overlap, 22 events, possible early news, assumed costs, and a 15-minute and +2R policy that is separate.
return-0.77
drawdown12.3
win rate53.33
sample15
mean_pct0.07
avgwin_pct3.59
avgloss_pct3.96
targets0
worst_pct-10.41
mean_excess_pp-0.29
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 Strategy
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A trading strategy called CNXC91106 was tested. The strategy is based on three premises. First, the strategy uses certain dates called issuer advance dates to decide when to buy and sell. It buys on the third day before an event and sells on the day before the event, unless the event happens after the market closes or before it opens. The strategy also excludes events that are announced on the same day. Second, the strategy uses historical data from 2021 to 2024 to train itself and data from June 2025 to September 2026 to test itself. It uses a stop-loss of 1 average daily range (ADR) below the entry price and a target of 3 ADRs above the entry price. If the price gaps down at the open, the strategy stops the trade. The strategy only buys and does not sell short. It also takes into account fees of 5 basis points and slippage of 45 basis points on each trade. Third, the strategy uses a measure called mean excess return to compare its performance to the performance of the SPY index over the same period. The strategy was tested with different variations, but all of them had negative returns during the training period. Even the variation that performed well during the test period could not make up for the losses during the training period. The data used for the strategy came from individual company websites and a website called https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The strategy has several limitations, including that it only tested one company, it looked back at past data, and it did not take into account all possible costs and risks.
return1.96
drawdown9
win rate57.14
sample7
mean_pct0.43
avgwin_pct4.64
avgloss_pct5.19
targets0
worst_pct-7.16
mean_excess_pp-0.18
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 Trade
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the headline about a trading strategy for CNXC91106. The strategy has three main premises. First, it looks at the issuer's advance dates and enters a trade three days before and exits one day before, excluding event sessions for AMC and BMO. Announcements must be made before the entry date. Second, it uses a specific adjustment for 1451CNXC and 1470SPY daily bars through 2026-09-10, training from 2021 to 2024, and holding out from June 2025 to 2026. It also freezes prior 20 ADR, stops at E-ADR, targets E+3ADR, and has an adverse open on gap stop. Third, it uses vectorbt with long-only direction, fees of 5bp, and slippage of 45bp each side. The strategy was tested and all training variants had negative compounded returns. The sources of the data are issuer URLs and a website. The strategy has limitations, including a selected company, retrospective calendar recovery, and possible early news.
return-7.62
drawdown8.84
win rate33.33
sample15
mean_pct-0.48
avgwin_pct3.41
avgloss_pct2.42
targets1
worst_pct-5.03
mean_excess_pp-1.04
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 Trade
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the following trade notes. Premises for the trade are as follows: the trade is based on certain rules, including entering a trade three days before a specific event and exiting the day after the event, excluding events that happen at the start or end of the trading day. Announcements related to the trade must be made before the trade starts, and same-day announcements with unknown release times are excluded. The trade uses historical data from 2021 to 2024 to train a model, and data from June 2025 to September 2026 to test it. The model uses a stop-loss at 1 average daily range below the entry point and a target at 3 average daily ranges above the entry point, where average daily range refers to the average amount a stock price moves in a day. The trade is only for buying stocks, not selling, and includes fees of 5 basis points and slippage of 25 basis points on each side, where basis points refer to a unit of measurement for interest rates and slippage refers to the difference between expected and actual trade prices. The trade also includes a manual reconciliation of returns and trade counts, and initial cash is included in the calculation of drawdown, which refers to the decrease in value of a stock or portfolio. The trade uses synthetic data, which is not real-time data, and adjusted prices, which are not the actual prices at which trades can be executed. The mean excess return is calculated as the difference between the return of the trade and the return of the SPY index over the same period, and is not an exposure-matched alpha, which refers to a measure of return that takes into account the risk of the trade. The trade uses a fixed set of parameters and reports all variants without choosing a winner. The conclusion is that the trade will not be adopted because all training variants had negative returns, and the positive return in the test period is not enough to make up for the failed training period. The sources of the data are listed in observations 24553-24575 and are available at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The limitations of the trade include the selection of a single company, the use of historical data, overlap with web help in 2023, and the assumption of certain costs and policies.
return4.85
drawdown7.9
win rate57.14
sample7
mean_pct0.83
avgwin_pct5.06
avgloss_pct4.81
targets0
worst_pct-6.79
mean_excess_pp0.23
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 Trade
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A news scan found the following trading plan. The plan is based on two premises. First, the plan uses certain dates: it enters a trade three days before a specific event, and exits the day after the event, unless the event happens at the start or end of the trading day. It also excludes any announcements made on the same day as the trade entry. Second, the plan uses historical stock data from 2021 to 2024 to test its strategy, and it uses data up to September 10, 2026, to adjust its calculations. The plan also freezes certain data from before 2020 and uses a stop-loss and target price based on the stock's average daily range. The plan only considers long trades, and it includes fees and slippage of 5 and 25 basis points per trade. The plan also manually reconciles its returns and trade counts, and it includes the initial cash in its calculations. The plan uses a method called vectorbt and reports its results without choosing a winner. The plan concludes that it should not be adopted because all of its variants had negative returns. The plan's data comes from individual company websites and a website called https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The plan has several limitations, including only using data from one company, possible early news releases, and assumed costs.
return-1.9
drawdown6.96
win rate46.67
sample15
mean_pct-0.08
avgwin_pct2.8
avgloss_pct2.6
targets1
worst_pct-4.65
mean_excess_pp-0.64
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 Exit
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A trading strategy called CNXC91106 has been tested. The strategy is based on three premises. First, it looks at the dates when companies announce important information, and it decides to buy or sell based on those dates. It buys on the third day before the announcement and sells on the day after the announcement, unless the announcement is made after the market closes or before it opens. Second, the strategy uses historical data from 2021 to 2024 to train itself, and it tests itself on data from 2025 to 2026. It does not use a stop-loss, which is a rule to sell a stock when it falls to a certain price. Third, the strategy only buys stocks, not sells, and it takes into account the costs of buying and selling. The strategy was tested on a stock called CNXC and a stock index called SPY. The results showed that the strategy did not work well, and it is not recommended for use. The data used for the test came from the internet, and the test had some limitations, such as only looking at one company and not taking into account all the costs of buying and selling.
return11.74
drawdown9.17
win rate71.43
sample7
mean_pct1.71
avgwin_pct4.05
avgloss_pct4.15
targets0
worst_pct-6.13
mean_excess_pp1.1
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 Exit
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A trading strategy called CNXC91106 has a rule to exit a trade 3 days before a certain event, with a 50 basis point, or 0.5%, limit on each side. The strategy is based on three premises. First, it looks at the dates when companies announce important information, and it enters trades on the opening of the third day before the announcement and exits on the closing of the day before. It avoids trading on days when companies like AMC and BMO make announcements. The strategy only considers announcements that are made before the trade entry date, and it excludes announcements made on the same day if the release time is unknown. Second, the strategy uses data from 1451CNXC and 1470SPY from 2021 to 2026, up to September 10, 2026, to train and test its rules. It uses a fixed calendar time to exit trades, without stopping, and it is only for research, not for actual trading. The strategy also considers fees and slippage, which is the difference between the expected price and the actual price, of 5 basis points and 45 basis points on each side of the trade. Third, the strategy uses a method called vectorbt to make trades, only going long, meaning it only buys, and it reconciles its returns and trade counts manually. The strategy also includes the initial cash in its calculations and uses a proxy for reinvesting capital. The mean excess return is calculated against the full interval of the SPY, not against a matched alpha. The strategy tested different variants, but none of them had a positive compounded return, so it was not adopted. The sources of the data are listed, including individual company URLs and a website. The strategy has limitations, including only looking at one company, using past data, and assuming certain costs.
return-6.75
drawdown9
win rate33.33
sample15
mean_pct-0.4
avgwin_pct3.78
avgloss_pct2.5
targets0
worst_pct-5.03
mean_excess_pp-0.96
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 Exit
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A trading fund manager made notes about a trading strategy called CNXC91106. The strategy has three main premises. First, the manager looks at the issuer's advance dates and enters trades on the third day before an event, and exits trades on the day after the event, unless the event happens before or after the market opens. The manager excludes announcements made on the same day as the trade. Second, the manager uses historical data from 2021 to 2024 to train the strategy, and tests it on data from June 2025 to September 10, 2026. The manager uses a fixed calendar time to exit trades, with no stop-loss, and only for research purposes. Third, the manager uses a tool called vectorbt to make trades, only going long, with fees of 5 basis points and slippage of 25 basis points on each side. The manager manually checks the returns and trade counts, and includes the initial cash in the mark-to-market drawdown. The manager also uses a proxy for reinvesting capital and adjusts prices. The mean excess return is the difference between the strategy's return and the return of the SPY index over the same period. The manager tested different variants of the strategy, but none of them had a positive compounded return, so the manager decided not to adopt the strategy. The manager used data from individual company websites and a website called https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The manager notes that the strategy has limitations, including only being tested on one company, using historical data, and assuming certain costs.
return14.91
drawdown8.8
win rate71.43
sample7
mean_pct2.12
avgwin_pct4.47
avgloss_pct3.77
targets0
worst_pct-5.76
mean_excess_pp1.51
ambiguous0
CNXC91106 Exit
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsCNXC2026-09-11 06:10
A trading strategy called CNXC91106 has a rule to exit a trade 3 days before a certain event, with a 30 basis points per side condition. The strategy is based on three premises. First, it considers the issuer's advance dates and enters a trade on the third day before the event and exits on the day before the event, excluding events that happen at the start or end of the trading day. The strategy also excludes announcements made on the same day as the entry date if the release time is unknown. Second, the strategy uses a specific set of data, including 1451CNXC and 1470SPY daily bars up to September 10, 2026, and trains the model on data from 2021 to 2024, with a holdout period from June 2025 to 2026. The strategy has a fixed calendar time exit and no stop, and is only used for research, not for live trading. Third, the strategy uses a long-only direction, with fees of 5 basis points and slippage of 25 basis points on each side, and reconciles returns and trade counts manually. The strategy also includes initial cash in its mark-to-market drawdown and uses synthetic data for bookkeeping. The mean excess return is calculated against the full T-3/T-1 SPY interval, not against exposure-matched alpha. The strategy was tested with different variants, but all of them had negative compounded returns, and even the positive holdout period could not rescue the failed training period. The sources of the data are listed in observations 24553-24575 and are available at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars. The strategy has several limitations, including the selection of a single company, retrospective calendar recovery, overlap with 2023 web help, 22 events, possible early news, assumed costs, and a 15-minute and +2R policy that is separate.
return-0.98
drawdown7.12
win rate46.67
sample15
mean_pct0
avgwin_pct3.07
avgloss_pct2.7
targets0
worst_pct-4.65
mean_excess_pp-0.56
ambiguous0
BFRI911 Conclusion
StrategiesrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:10
The fund started with $49.14 in cash and $850.99 in the account, with no holdings or pending orders. The goal was to make a decision based on the FDA and earnings run-up, with a plan to exit before the event. There was a binding constraint on the net executable event payoff due to uncertain overlapping CBP clearance, which was not a monthly shortfall. The premises were: 1) the exact FDA date of September 28 was verified by the issuer on May 14, and only the date was considered for early decisions; 2) the ITC lift published on September 4 superseded the partial suspension from May, and included a full LEO/CDO with an XL drug combination, but the legacy base was unaffected and not all cash was safe; 3) cash reconstruction showed $2,485 pre-WC burn and $3.889 million in the first half of the year, with significant potential claims; and 4) frozen momentum from 2477 to 2480 showed a train of -96.87% and a holdout of -52.21%, with a stress of -64.46% and a half Kelly of 0. This negative control was not a backtest of the FDA event. The conclusion was to make no order and not move any levels, as the candidate had no independent net asymmetric run-up edge. The validity was limited by unmet entry conditions, and the soundness was limited by missing current CBP/appeal outcomes and post-restriction paid reorders. A strong bull case could be made with a positive FDA outcome, cheap redesign, and legacy utilization, but this would not assign a trade probability from the clinical 65.5%. The sources stopped changing the core answer after the September 1 update, and the absence of new SEC information was not pending proof. The prior cash constraint view was strengthened by the actual enforcement update, not blanket bearishness. The existing monitor was replaced on September 25, and the tested collector preserved all coverage. The next check will be at 06 UTC, and the fund will preserve zero unless there is a new primary ruling. There is no separate FUND case, as there is no validated outside-mandate operation. The sources for this information include the SEC and federal register websites, as well as a stock bars dataset.
cash49.14
allocation0
orders0
FDA_date2026-09-28
holdout_return_pct-52.21
holdout_n74
halfKelly0
monitor262
collector209
BFRI911 Diagnostic
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:09
A diagnostic test for BFRI911 was run using a momentum strategy with specific parameters, including a 20-day lookback period, 1460 days of data, a 5% stop loss, and a 15% target profit. The test used 1003 daily price bars from IEX and resulted in 124 closed trades. However, the raw prices showed a discontinuity due to a July 2023 split, which made them not comparable with the 1176 SIP adjustment used in the study. A full sample diagnostic was performed without a costed holdout, but it was not an event study and was not adopted. Additionally, an independent fixed rule long-only test with a costed chronological holdout from 2477 to 2480 also failed. The data source was https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=iex and local cli.json.
return-30.13
drawdown70.61
win rate27.42
sample124
bars1003
buy_hold_pct19.11
BFRI911 Trial Results
StatisticalinconclusiveCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:09
A clinical trial, Registry 187, randomized 187 adults, with 145 receiving the active treatment and 42 receiving a vehicle, or placebo. The primary composite result showed 65.5% versus 4.8%, a difference of 60.7 percentage points. The approximate unadjusted Wald 95% confidence interval was 50.62 to 70.78 percentage points, based on rounded rates. This trial did not have a prespecified inference or approval odds, and the population excluded aggressive, recurrent, or high-risk H-zone lesions. Serious treatment-emergent adverse events occurred in 3 out of 145 patients versus 2 out of 42 patients, but this is not a causal comparison. A trading holdout of 74 fixed momentum trades had a mean return of -0.70697% per event, with a 95% mean confidence interval of -2.40017% to 1.15124% based on 20,000 independent and identically distributed bootstrap samples with a seed of 91295, resulting in a total return of -52.2123%. This sampling of trades ignores regime and time correlation, and the confidence interval crossing zero and negative point estimates does not prove that all FDA strategies fail. The sponsor's registry and press release have one clinical origin, while the ITC has an independent legal origin, and SIP market transactions have a separate origin. There is no active-comparator clinical claim, and no conversion of clinical effect into stock win rate. Sources include a clinical trial registry and a stock market data website.
clinical_n187
effect_pp60.7
clinical_low_pp50.62
clinical_high_pp70.78
trade_n74
mean_pct-0.71
trade_CI_low_pct-2.4
trade_CI_high_pct1.15
BFRI911 FDA Approval
ConsequenceswatchCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:08
A news scan found the following information about BFRI911. There are several premises to consider: 1. On May 14, the issuer announced a September 28 PDUFA date, which is the date by which the FDA must make a decision, with a primary clearance of 65.5% versus 4.8% in 145 out of 42 cases after the last cycle, using the legacy BF-Rhodo LED. 2. On May 6, the agency made an explicit decision covering five panel illuminators and a 5-ALA combination, with limited repair and warranty exceptions, which is a type of agreement that allows for certain repairs or replacements. 3. On September 1, the agency published a decision on September 4 to lift the suspension that started on August 28, and on August 13, the MD&A stated that the earlier state is outdated, referring to the Management's Discussion and Analysis section of a financial report. 4. On June 4, the CBP redesign request response is expected in September or October by the issuer, with no firm date or clearance recovered, where CBP refers to the Customs and Border Protection agency. There are three main points to consider: first, a favorable FDA label would widen the eligible use but would not amend the patent order, which is a legal document that outlines the ownership and use of a patent. Second, legacy lamps can continue to generate revenue, but the XL redesign needs separate legal and regulatory execution, and financing and working capital can absorb the upside, meaning the potential benefits. Third, Sun benefits from enforcement, AG from earnout and preferred claims, and patients and providers from an additional option if approved, with equity tail depending on cash per share after these claims, where earnout refers to a payment made to a company based on its performance. The countercase is that the legacy base is large enough and the redesign is cheap, at $0.4 million in future accrual, so parallel clearances could produce a big jump, but the probability and timing are unknown. The current binding constraint is independent net runup edge and current clearance, not clinical p-value or the $349 shortfall, where p-value refers to a statistical measure of significance. The facts stop at primary records, and causal outcomes are conditional, meaning they depend on certain conditions. The sources of this information include the US International Trade Commission, the Federal Register, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
FDA_day28
ITC_lift_day1
clinical_difference_pp60.7
clinical_n187
remediation_accrual_m0.4
allocation0
BFRI911 Cash
FundamentalwatchCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:08
The company BFRI911 has a cash bridge and dilution that constrain the FDA rerating case. The premises are as follows: as of June 30, the company had $4.659 million in cash, and for the first half of the year, the chief financial officer reported a loss of $1.728 million. The summed statement of working capital source is $2.161 million, which means the pre-working capital cash is $3.889 million. The management and administrative costs are $2.2 million, which is an unresolved narrative sign error. If we exclude the related accounts payable paydown of $3.714 million, the company's cash flow from operations would be $1.986 million, but excluding the third-party accounts payable increase of $2.461 million gives a negative $0.475 million. The company's monthly pre-working capital burn is $0.6482 million, which translates to 7.19 months of simple cash, versus the reported burn of $0.288 million, which is 16.18 months. These are mechanical sensitivities from June 30 and not forecasts. The going concern doubt persists. The cost reset is structural, but the current 80% gross margin is not infinite. The annual Ameluz earnout is 12% if it is less than or equal to $65 million, and 15% on all revenue above $65 million. If the revenue increases from $65 million to $65.01 million, the earnout would be $1.9515 million. A constant 77% contribution requires an extra $2.534 million in revenue, which is an illustration, not a forecast. As of June 30, the potential shares are 43.55556 million, and on July 8, 0.552483 million shares were already converted, and on August 11, 14.852359 million shares were in common stock. The debt conversion does not bring cash, and the out-of-money warrant proceeds are unavailable. In conclusion, real operating improvement does not establish a pre-event payoff. The bull case is legacy utilization funds launch, which needs actual post-restriction cash and clearance. The sources of this information are https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226037834/form10-q.htm and https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858685/000149315226037610/ex99-1.htm.
cash_m4.66
CFO_m-1.73
WC_source_m2.16
preWC_CFO_m-3.89
CFO_ex_bothAP_m-0.47
preWC_months7.19
reported_months16.18
potential_shares43555560
earnout_step_m1.95
allocation0
BFRI911 Training
SimulationsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
A training process for BFRI911 used 20,000 random scenarios, called trade paths, to test investment strategies. These scenarios were based on 134 past returns from a training dataset, with all capital reinvested. The results showed a median return of -25.03%, a loss of 85.595%, and a drawdown of more than 20% in 86.415% of the scenarios. The 5th percentile return was -43.61%. The training data had a win rate of 17.9104%, a loss rate of 5.3252%, and a percentage of trades that were wins of 11.3814%. Using a formula called the half Kelly criterion, which is a method for determining the optimal amount of capital to allocate to an investment, the result was 0, meaning no capital should be allocated. This training process ignored the potential effects of economic dependence and regime changes, as well as gaps in FDA data, and did not attempt to forecast price paths or estimate the probability of FDA approval. The results did not provide a basis for estimating the odds of winning FDA approval. The full fund had a loss of 5.7745%, and the quarter fund had a total loss of 1.4436%. However, the affordability of an investment alone cannot make up for a negative expected return. A 3% account risk and a 25% position cap were not necessary in this case. The current allocation is 0. The data used for this training can be found at https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and the trades can be queried at runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst.
training_halfKelly_capital0
paths20000
trades_per_path10
median_total_pct-25.03
p_loss0.86
p_dd200.86
p5_total_pct-43.61
BFRI911 Momentum
TechnicalrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
A news scan found the headline that BFRI911 momentum remains positive over 20 sessions but below short moving average. As of September 10, the SIP close was 1.46, which is below the SMA20 of 1.47875, but above the 50 and 200 moving averages of 1.2745 and 0.9915795, respectively. The RSI is 53.44. Over 20 sessions, the stock has increased by 16.8%, with an average daily range of 0.110055, which is 7.54% of the price. The average true range is 0.10703, and the annual realized volatility is 55.82%. The 20-day average volume is $1.080 million. The trend state is mixed, with no technical breakdown or positive event edge. An illustrative 1 ADR risk to 3 ADR reward gives prices of 1.349945 and 1.790165 around 1.46, but these are not live levels because there is no support or valuation-based 3R target or independent FDA payoff. The daily worst gap since 2022 is -21.74%, which is observed as a tail event, not the maximum possible loss. The CLI 1460 day IEX unadjusted diagnostic return is -30.1333%, with a drawdown of 70.606% and an N of 124, and a win of 27.419%. The raw split discontinuity means the data is not comparable to the adjusted SIP, and no CLI edge was adopted. The source of this data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars.
close1.46
SMA201.48
ADR0.11
RSI53.44
RV55.82
allocation0
BFRI911 Analysis
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
A news scan found the following analysis of BFRI911: Premises include two main points. First, the analysis uses a rule where if the closing price is higher than the closing price 20 sessions before, the next open is used as an entry point, and the position is exited at the next open if the signal is flat. The analysis also uses a 5% stop loss and a 15% target, with the stop loss taking priority if both are hit, and an adverse open can trigger a gap stop, with a final forced close. Second, the analysis adjusts for SIP, or Securities Information Processor, which is a system that provides real-time market data, for all 1176 bars from January 2022 to September 10, 2026, with training from 2022 to 2024, and held out from 2025 to September 10, 2026. The analysis uses a long-only strategy with a 5 basis point fee and stated slippage on each side, which refers to the difference between the expected price and the actual price of a trade. Two synthetic bookkeeping rows per day allow for entry day stops, but these are not based on intraday data. The analysis concludes that momentum alone is not sufficient for a run-up, based on a technical diagnostic that is not a matched FDA event backtest, meaning it does not test for a specific event or condition. The analysis also notes that selection, current company regime, corporate actions, and slippage assumptions may limit the transfer of these results. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all.
windowholdout
slippage_bp45
return-64.46
drawdown79.87
win rate28.38
sample74
mean_pct-1.1
avgwin_pct10.2
avgloss_pct5.58
targets14
worst_pct-6.55
BFRI911 Analysis
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
A news scan found the following analysis of BFRI911: Premises include two main points. First, a frozen momentum strategy was tested, where a position is entered when the lagged close is greater than the 20-session prior close, and exited when the next open is flat, with a 5% stop loss and 15% target, and the stop loss is prioritized if both are hit. Second, the strategy was backtested on data from January 2022 to September 10, 2026, with the training period from 2022 to 2024 and the holdout period from 2025 to September 10, 2026. The backtest used a 5 basis point fee and stated slippage on each side, with no tuning, and utilized vectorbt with a long-only strategy. Two synthetic bookkeeping rows per day were used to permit entry day stops, but these are not intraday data. The conclusion is to reject momentum alone for the run-up, as this is a technical diagnostic and not a matched FDA event backtest, with no established positive edge conditioned on the calendar. The selection, current company regime, corporate actions, and slippage assumptions limit the transferability of the results. The source of the data is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all.
windowholdout
slippage_bp25
return-52.21
drawdown74.97
win rate29.73
sample74
mean_pct-0.71
avgwin_pct10.17
avgloss_pct5.31
targets14
worst_pct-6.17
BFRI911 Momentum
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
A trading strategy called BFRI911 with a fixed momentum of 20 was trained and tested. The rules were: if the closing price was higher than 20 sessions before, the next open would be an entry signal, and the position would be closed at the next open if the signal was flat. The stop loss was 5% and the target was 15%. If both were hit, the stop loss would be executed first. If the opening price was adverse due to a gap, the stop loss would be triggered. The position would be closed at the final close. The strategy was tested on data from January 2022 to September 10, 2026, with the training period being 2022-2024 and the held-out period being 2025-September 10, 2026. No tuning was done, and a 5 basis point fee was applied on each side, with stated slippage. Two synthetic bookkeeping rows were added per day to allow for entry day stops, but these are not intraday data. The results were manually compounded and validated against vectorbt, a trading backtester, with a fractional capital proxy, but without 15-minute or 2R management validation. The initial implementation did not include entry day exits, but this was corrected before journaling the results, and the initial numbers were discarded. The conclusion is to reject momentum alone for a run-up. This is a technical diagnostic, not a matched FDA event backtest, and no calendar-conditioned positive edge was established. The selection, current company regime, corporate actions, and slippage assumptions limit the transferability of the results. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all.
windowtrain
slippage_bp45
return-98.17
drawdown98.35
win rate17.91
sample134
mean_pct-2.72
avgwin_pct10.94
avgloss_pct5.7
targets18
worst_pct-6.27
BFRI911 Momentum
BacktestsrejectCatalyst run-upsBFRI2026-09-11 04:07
A trading strategy called BFRI911 was tested with a momentum approach. The rules were: if the closing price was higher than 20 sessions before, the next day's opening price would be used to enter a trade, and the trade would be exited at the next opening price if the signal was flat. The strategy also included a 5% stop loss and a 15% target, with the stop loss taking priority if both were hit. If the opening price was unfavorable due to a gap, the stop loss would be triggered. The trade would be closed at the end of the day if it had not been closed already. The strategy was tested on data from January 2022 to September 10, 2026, with the data from 2022 to 2024 used for training and the data from 2025 to September 10, 2026, held out for testing. No adjustments were made to the strategy, and it was tested with a 5 basis point fee and slippage on both sides of the trade. Two synthetic rows were added to the data each day to allow for entry day stops, but these were not based on intraday data. The results were compared to the results from a manual calculation of compounded net return and trade counts, using a proxy for fractional capital and without validation of 15-minute intervals or 2R management. The initial implementation did not include entry day exits, but this was corrected before the results were recorded, and the initial numbers were discarded. The conclusion is that momentum alone is not a good strategy for this run-up. This is a technical diagnostic test, not a matched FDA event backtest, and no positive edge was established based on the calendar. The results may not be transferable due to limitations in the selection of the company regime, corporate actions, and slippage assumptions. The data source is https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=BFRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all.
windowtrain
slippage_bp25
return-96.87
drawdown97.24
win rate17.91
sample134
mean_pct-2.33
avgwin_pct11.38
avgloss_pct5.33
targets18
worst_pct-5.89
NIGHT911 Update
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsTBN, NEOV, CNXC, SRRK2026-09-11 02:23
The NIGHT911 collector replacement has preserved coverage within the five-job cap. There are three premises for this update: (1) new primary dates for NEOV, TBN, and CNXC require repeat checks without automatic order, (2) Catalyst has five active jobs and a sixth scheduling attempt was rejected, and (3) a combined 3500-character script was completed locally at 02:22:23 UTC with END5, preserving SRRK, SCHL, and PRAX RSS and SRRK latest 8-K while adding NEOV public published posts, TBN calendar and RSS, and CNXC SEC. The conclusion is that cancelled67 was only cancelled after the combined local test passed, and then scheduled205 was scheduled at 120 minutes for 48 runs and 90 seconds. Acceptance is not the same as execution receipt. The new cadence is faster but has a shorter lifetime than the old 480-minute 74-runs cadence, and handoff must renew after four days if still needed. A positive date and cash update requires full original and independent costed validation, while an adverse, early, or missing update requires re-verification and cash update. No order has been authorized. There are some limitations to this update: the latest three SEC forms can omit older relevant 8-Ks, the absence of RSS is not evidence of pending status, and source errors print explicitly. The primary URLs for this update are https://neovolta.com/press-releases, https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/, https://ir.tamboran.com/news-events/press-releases/rss, https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001803599.json, and https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml.
job205
minutes120
runs48
script_chars3500
orders0
NET911 Allocation
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsTBN, NEOV, CNXC, EPM, TLX, SRRK, INTG, BB2026-09-11 02:19
The automated trading fund manager started with $49.14 in catalyst cash and $850.99 in the account, with no holdings or queued orders. The goal is to achieve asymmetric dated earnings or FDA run-up with an exit before the first news, which is a type of event that can impact stock prices, also known as a catalyst. A binding constraint, or a rule that must be followed, is to implement an event edge, not a monthly shortfall of $349.01. The premises, or assumptions, include a full universe calendar join of 13,176 listings, 227 leads, and 231 price vectors, which yielded 10 technical passes. There were 3,057 foreign listing rows recorded, but these are not independent companies. New issuer dates include TBN on September 25, USA, NEOV on September 23, AMC, and CNXC on September 29, AMC, which correct discovery errors. NUVL has a stale PDUFA, or a US Food and Drug Administration approval, that has already been approved or acquired, and TLX/SRRK has no early decision seen in RSS, or a type of news feed, but this is not proof that it is pending. TBN has a costed fixed T-5 study, which is a type of statistical analysis, with a mean of 10.34245% and a confidence interval of [-0.4535, 3.6226]. The selected small history, current first gas regime, and unvalidated intraday management mean paper only, with T-5 on September 18 not being used now. NEOV has signed input cells and a framework, but not firm 18GWh sales, and full May 14 cash old, the day before the call. CNXC has a GAAP margin of 3.9%, which is below the SMA20, or a type of moving average. The EPM paper, or a type of financial model, is unchanged, and the train is -6.55%. The conclusion is that there are no orders or exits moved, and cash is chosen for reviewed payoff and validation gaps, not proof that the whole market lacks an edge, or a competitive advantage. The training TBN has a half Kelly, which is a type of betting strategy, of 12.292 capital fraction, which is unstable with an N1 loss, and approved 0. There is a whole 39.33 share 4.622% account total loss, which is not a quarter probe, or a type of financial analysis. The validity, or accuracy, of the results is bounded by retrospective calendar, selected survivors, small N, missing paid cash, and execution. A countercase, or an alternative scenario, is that new productive capacity could drive a fat-tail rally, or a type of stock price increase, and preserve prospective paper and collect cash rather than move past test entry. The monitors 235/236 are resolved, and 249 TBN/250 NEOV with CNXC are armed, or ready to trade. The older EPM 168/TLX 193 is preserved, or kept. A new collector and shortened name were tested after 60 character validation reject, and the final note holds the job id and receipt. There is no FUND case, or a type of investment strategy, with no validated separate operation. The sources of the data include https://www.tamboran.com/corporate-calendar/, https://neovolta.com/blog/neovolta-q4-fy26-earnings-call-timing, https://ir.concentrix.com/news/news-details/2026/Concentrix-Schedules-Release-of-Third-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Investor-Conference-Call/default.aspx, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, https://telixpharma.com/feed/, and https://investors.scholarrock.com/rss/news-releases.xml. The gaps, or missing data, include INTG/ATLO/NEOG/CWBC/HCWC dates, foreign eligibility and primary coverage, BB release body, CPRT cash and agreement, ORCL and ADBE calls, NEOV history and current funding, TBN cash and early news vintages, and not called absence, or a lack of data.
fund_cash49.14
orders0
holdings0
US_listings13176
US_calendar_leads227
foreign_listing_rows3057
TBN_training_pct10.34
TBN_holdout_pct5.35
TBN_holdout_n2
TBN_target_hits0
allocation0
NET911 Market Screen
StrategieswatchCatalyst run-upsHM-B.ST, KGF.L, ABVX.PA, 9983.T, 2678.T, ETH/USD, BB2026-09-11 02:16
A news scan found the headline 'NET911 eight overseas market screen and crypto mandate boundary'. A TradingView screen for earnings release dates between September 11 and October 16 returned 3057 listing rows from the UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Japan, Australia, Hong Kong, and Canada. The screen retrieved all 157 observation chunks, but these include duplicate companies due to cross-listings. The volume ranking is based on local shares and does not reflect cross-market liquidity ranking. The primary calendar includes H&M's nine-month report on September 24, KGF's half-year report on September 22, and Abivax's H1 report on September 21. Yahoo quotes show the following prices: H&M at 164.35 SEK, KGF at 288.4 GBp, ABVX at 100.3 EUR, Fast Retailing at 65600 JPY, ASKUL at 1197 JPY, and GSK at 1775.5 GBp. The chart's previous close is a 5-day reference and not guaranteed to be the prior close. The ETHACDC 186 summary from September 3 chooses Sepolia on October 6 and defers Hoodi, but this does not confirm the Ethereum mainnet date. The fund mandate does not include native crypto with no earnings or FDA events, and it rejects protocol-only rotation. The goal is a dated run-up with a binding constraint on net event edge and tradability, not geographic availability. Sources include TradingView and company websites.
listing_rows3057
markets8
UK369
Germany1773
France36
Sweden25
Japan578
Australia166
HongKong7
Canada103
allocation0
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