Stats

ScreenSep8 02UTC: downloadedbothNasdaqTraderdirectories https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/nasdaqlisted.txt and https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/dynamic/SymDir/otherlisted.txt ;13155non-testinstruments/7499nonETF,includesADRs,warrants,preferreds,not13155operatingcompanies. Joined206uniqueleadsfrom4weeks https://www.earningstoday.com/earnings-calendar/weekly/2026-09-14 ; allmatched. Nasdaq23dateAPIrequests timeout,soexhaustiveprimaryeventcoverageNOTachieved. Global17weekdayfirstpages https://www.rttnews.com/Calendar/Earnings.aspx?Date=14-Sep-2026 yield419rows/391foreignsymbols/15suffixes; off-requestdates/paginationlimit. Primarytopchecks: PLAYSep14afterclose verified,estimatedSep21wrong; backtest848rejects. EGTX.STSep28FDA https://www.egetis.com/mfn_news/egetis-interim-report-q2-2026/ exactdatevalid butfunding/earlybinary/venueFX/edgeunknown. ABVXSep21H1 https://ir.abivax.com/financial-information/financial-calendar/ dateonly;114.79staleshare>49.14fund andeventedgeunknown. Smaregi4431.TSep14FY27Q1 https://corp.smaregi.jp/en/ir/ confirmed,companynewsletterapprox16local https://note.com/smaregi/n/nd448d492cd9f ; venue/lot/FX/netedgeunknown. CANcrypto-linkedearningsSep8beforeopen https://investor.canaan-creative.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canaan-inc-report-second-quarter-2026-financial-results leaves0regularsessions. 0513.HK,EBF,KBH estimatedcalendarleads notpromoted: boundedissuersearchfailedcurrentdateconfirmation (https://www.continental.com.hk/en/investor_relations/financial_report/ ; https://www.ennis.com/ ; https://investor.kbhome.com/). BTC/ETH/SOLdescriptivehistorydoesnotestablishdatedearnings/FDAtransmissionedge; ETHSep3ACDC186 https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/all-core-devs-consensus-acdc-186-september-3-2026/29496 movesSepoliatestnettoOct6,noexactmainnetdate. Premises: exactdate,validpayoffandfeasibleexecutionallneeded; conclusionnewwatchlist,zeroorders. Validityofcashdecisiondoesnotmeanall206opportunitiesbad. Selectionbiasandmissingcoverageexplicit; primaryissueroptimismnotindependentapprovalproof. Fiveconfirmednewdatesmeansnewtothisrunwatchlist,notnewpublicannouncements.

Facts:PLAYQ1cashbridge anddebt from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525769/000152576926000026/play-20260505.htm ; EGTXSep28FDA/350MSEKraise https://www.egetis.com/mfn_news/egetis-interim-report-q2-2026/ ; CANSep8beforeopen https://investor.canaan-creative.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canaan-inc-report-second-quarter-2026-financial-results . CONDITIONAL chains, notforecasts: PLAY1 lowercapex/saleleasebacks increasecurrentreportedcash;2 deferredrefresh/fixedfutureleasecosts couldpressureguestdemandorcoverage;3 equitythenbearsresidualfinancingrisk whilelandlords/lendersreceivecontractualcash. Bullcounterchain1same-storesalesrecover;2operatingleverageexpandsorganicFCF;3debtpaydownreducesinterest andimprovesequityoptionality; noobservedQ2proof. EGTX1approvalcouldopenUSpaidaccess/conditionalvoucher;2 distribution, reimbursement andlaunchspenddeterminecashconversion;3 greatercashmayreduceequityissuance. CRL/delayinsteadconsumesfunding andincreasesdilutionrisk; optimistic sponsor languagebenefitsfinancing,notindependentFDAconfirmation. CAN1hardware/mineeconomics revealenterpriseconditions;2 minerordersaffectequipmentmargin;3 inferencefromonesmallissuer toBTCaggregateprice requiresmarketshare andindependenttransmissionevidence absenthere. No directcryptorunupedgefromCANearnings orETHtestnet. Allbranchesrequireindependentneteventvalidation; stayflat.

Direct query_trades fund=catalyst Sep8 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev (tool record runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst). Python exact entry/exit/qty calculation:3losses,mean-16.3806%,sum-31.9373USD; RARE93.322%oflosses and loss6.440R versus original25.84entry/24stop. MIRM andIONS operator liquidations censor their planned horizons; cannot infer zero truewinprobability or infer efficacyoforiginaltargets. No average winningtrade exists. Premises: n3biased/censored record cannot calibrate positiveedge; conclusion live-recordKelly unidentifiable, adopted0. NewPLAY N6 holdout win2/3 andW5.972/L7.795 yieldpositive mechanicalKelly but intervalcrosseszero andtrainingfails; no pooling differentcatalysts to pretend n9 homogeneous. Slippage by ordertype/session unavailable without decisionquotes, so exit-minus-entry is return,notexecution slippage. Countercasebad luck possible, doesnotestablishprobability.

Numpy RNG90802 after configuration bootstraps,100000paths of4 dailyOHLCvectors from1004training2021–24 days; Yahoo https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/PLAY . Within-dayvectors preserved, IID days destroyserialclustering. Start8.72, fixed1ATRstop8.19121,target9.51318; stop-first/gap-openstop, cappedtarget, fees5bp/slip10bp per side. Netmean-.061527%,win46.983%,p05-6.3454%,p95+8.7693%,stops29.830%,targets17.638%,time52.532%. Premises: costs and barrier path matter; resampled general days do not estimate earnings payoff. Conclusion zero allocation, no Kelly from this generic model. No one-shareloss exceeds8.5099 in finite samples, NOT proof zero gaprisk. Assumed30% gap onfive8.72shares loses13.08; full49.14notional14.742, both exceedrisk. Gap probability unestimated. Strongcountercaseeventconditioning could outperform genericpaths, but small eventholdout uncertainty and negative training alreadyreject.

Premises:1 Sep4 Yahoo close8.72 below20/50/200SMAs9.715/10.212/13.491,RSI14Wilder39.455,20sessionreturn-15.093%; https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/PLAY .2 ATR14simple.52879,ADR20.52045 constrain plausible four-session target.3 Hypothetical1ATRstop8.19121/1.5ATRtarget9.51318 only1.5grossRR, netRR 1.3820 at5bp fees/10bp slippage fails1.5net gate. Twentydaylow8.30 only.42belowclose,less thanoneATR;20dayhigh11.10 too remote for base-hit without measured edge. Five shares43.60 nominally fit49.14fund, but affordability is not edge; oneATRfive-shareloss2.64 beforefees, unbounded gap distinct. 60dailySPYcorrelation.14445 is descriptive, not independence proof. Combined falling-trend/moderateRSI supplies no reversal evidence. Countercase oversold rebound/short covering possible but no independent signal validated. No levels adopted; prices stale and cross-provider, no executable quotes.

Preregistered note876 before returns: T-4 open through T-1 close; actual pending window Sep8–11 before Sep14 issuer-confirmed aftermarket results https://ir.daveandbusters.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-entertainment-inc-report-second-quarter-2026 . 22 quarterly dates from primary8K bodies, 16 train2021–24,6 holdout2025–26; three Item2.02 business updates excluded and two cover dates corrected. Yahoo adjusted dailyOHLC1425bars https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/PLAY after venue429; research fallback, not same execution feed. Longonly vectorbt,5bp fees/10bp slippage each side, full-equity research portfolio; 1ATR14 stop/1.5ATR14 target based on prior day, gap-stop at open, stop-first on ambiguous daily bar, target capped. Return independently reconciled to compounded net trades. Train-13.155%,DD25.154%,win37.5%; holdout+6.879%,DD12.737%,win66.667%,mean1.383% per four-session opportunity, mean bootstrap20k95%CI[-4.485,7.251]%. Mechanical holdout quarterKelly5.790% is NOT adopted; trainKelly0. Stress25bp slip: train-17.225%,holdout+4.972%,CI[-4.771,6.930]%. No-barrier baseline train+1.409%,holdout+14.760%, but training negative-3.344% under cost stress. T3/T5 sensitivity observed only, no winner selection. Limits: selected small cohort, historical advance notices/preannouncements, daily bars miss15min and extended-session fills, marked DD omits highs/lows, cross-provider corporate actions. No trade; positive holdout cannot override failed training, costs and interval. CLI SMA10/50 diagnostic separate:11trades,-14.043%return,47.501%DD,27.273%win; not event strategy.

Premises:1 PLAY June15 Q1 actuals https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525769/000152576926000026/play-20260505.htm show OCF113.8m lesscapex105.3m =8.5m, versus adjustedFCF25.3m after16.8msaleleasebackfinancing.66.40%adjustedfigurecomesfromassetfinancing; lowercapexvs154.6mpriorhelpscashwhilecomps-5.4% andentertainmentrevenue-5.865%.2 June15issuerrelease https://daveandbusters.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/dave-busters-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results EBITDAmargin22.031%vs23.974%,creditEBITDA/interest~3.00x,19.6mcash vs1535.3mdebt; liquidity499.1mincludesrevolver.3 Aug4CEOchange toHarper https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1525769/000152576926000032/play-20260803.htm doesnotverifyQ2turnaround.4 EGTXAug21 https://www.egetis.com/mfn_news/egetis-interim-report-q2-2026/ confirmsSep28PDUFA but Q2totalcashflow230.2mSEKwith350mgrossraise; subtractinggrossraise=-119.8misroughfinancingbridge,NOTauditedoperatingburn. Revenue17.4mvs14.5m=20%reported/+23%CER; USexpandedaccesspatientsnotcommercialrevenue. CONCLUSION nofundamentalbuyfromheadlinecashorFDAdate. Validity: factsundercutcashqualityclaim,notprovefutureloss. Countercase: lowercapex,foodgrowth+6.464%,USapproval/PRVcouldimprovereturns; needpersistentsame-storecashandactualapprovaleconomics. No intrinsicvalueorapprovalprobabilityestimated; approximateequitymultiplesusingstalesharesdiscarded.

START49.14fundcash,850.99equity,0holdings/queued; GOAL repeatablepre-eventnetprofit; BINDING constraint independently validated feasible actual-windowedge. PREMISES:1 Ownrecord3losses,2censored,RARE6.44Rgap supplies no calibratedpositiveKelly (analysis751; runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst).2 NewSCHLdatedSep24 https://investor.scholastic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholastic-corporation-announces-date-first-quarter-fiscal-2027 has fixed5sessiontraining-13.862%,holdoutN6+6.387% yet meanCI[-.601,3.415]%; requiredbarriersCI[-2.109,3.104]%, alltrainingvariantsnegative (analysis763).3 GenericMonteCarlo100kpathsmean-.1517% cannot replace eventcohort (767); technicalfallingtrend andnonrecurringcashcritique746/766 do notsupplyedge.4 PRAXDec27 supersedesSep27June29filing https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1689548/000168954826000069/prax-20260629.htm ; ROIVSep8 06:15ETpresentationprecedesnextregularsession https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-present-topline-results-phase-2-phocus-study-mosliciguat .5 ExistingCHWY10sessionrule rejectedN6mean-.152652%,Kelly0; actual1remainingregularsession isdifferentuntestedrule (prior735). GIScoststress-2.405%N10 remainsrejected; no freshretest. CONCLUSION noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND; adoptedsize0. Validity: failededgegateentailscash, notproofallmarketopportunitiesbad. Soundnesslimitations: tinyselectedcohort,bootstrapuncertainty,advancehistoricalnoticesand15minquotes,partialIEX/dividends/corporateactions; cashpayoffhasopportunitycost. Strongestcountercase: SCHLholdoutwins2/3 andrepurchasescouldrally; retrospectiveKellypositive12.37%withoutbarriers/5.28%withbarriers is unstableagainstnegative training andwideCI, so notadopted. Facts endatdateddisclosures andmeasurements; futureprobabilitiesunknown. Changeprioronlywithindependentcostrobustmatchedwindow/payoffs,freshquotes,whole-sharefeasibility,netRR>=1.5 andgap-aware8.5099risk. Funding349.01shortfallisnotinput. Noopenbooktoreset; fivewatchlist3-stepbearcases747. Newjob67replaces27 preservingSRRKcadence/checks andaddingSCHL/PRAX,20existingmonitorsremain; exactnewmonitor rejectedcapacity,staticcollectorreminders notscheduledreview. Finalrecordphase00:14UTC,about13elapsedwithin42planned/45hard; unneededremainingallowance notspent.

Premises:1 Third-party screen asofSep7 22:15 still listsPRAXSept27 https://biotechreadouts.com/rankings/upcoming-pdufas ; originalJune29 8-K explicitlyextends toDec27 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1689548/000168954826000069/prax-20260629.htm andAug6issuerupdateconfirms https://investors.praxismedicines.com/news-releases/news-release-details/praxis-precision-medicines-provides-corporate-update-and-20 . Sameoriginupdates are not threeindependent confirmations.2 KGFissuerSeptember22halfyearcalendar explicitlyprovisional https://www.kingfisher.com/investors/financial-calendar ; venue/FX/eventedgeunknown.3 UNFIissuerAugust10Sep8morningrelease/08:30ETcall precedesnextregularsession https://ir.unfi.com/news/press-release-details/2026/United-Natural-Foods-to-Release-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-Fiscal-2026-Results-on-September-8-2026/default.aspx .4 LXUissuerhomepage latestJuly29earnings andSep1conference doesnotestablish nextdatedearnings https://investors.lsbindustries.com/ . Conclusion noentryfromtheseleads; scheduleverification is necessary notsufficient. Validity: stale/missingdatesorunknownnetedgefailmandate; soundnesslimitboundedsearchcannotproveabsenceofotheropportunities. Countercases: PRAXearlierapproval,KGFconfirmation,UNFIovernightmove allpossible,nottestedpayoffs. No inferredcryptocatalystfromthisearnings/FDAresearch; equitiesremainnaturalexpression. Cashprior changesonlywithdocumentedcurrentdate,unexpiredtestedwindow andcostrobustpayoff.

Numpyseed90800,100000paths each5sessions,1004training dailyOHLC vectors2021–24 from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; starts hypothetical35.7 with1ATRstop34.77393 and1.5ATRtarget37.08911. Dailyvectors resampledIID preserve within-dayOHLC relationships but destroyserialclustering; stop-first when bothlevels touched, gapstop atopen,targetcapped,fees5bp/slip10bp eachside. Netmean-.151681%,win47.848%,stop42.670%,target34.503%,time22.827%,p05-3.41830%,p953.57985%. This is genericrisk context,not earningsforecast or100000independent eventobservations. No sampled1shareloss exceeds8.5099, but finitehistoricaltails cannotprove zero gap risk; assumed30%gap wouldlose10.71beforecosts,probabilitynotestimated. Premises: costs/barriers and tails matter; conclusion noallocatableedge. Countercaseeventconditioningcouldimproveexpectedreturn, but needs actualdatedindependentcohort. NoKelly inferred from genericMonteCarlo; adoptedsize0. Do not add protective15minfill claim to dailyOHLC model.

September4 IEX adjustedclose35.70,20/50/200SMAs39.87275/42.51250/37.22063,RSI14Wilder25.1376,20sessionreturn-14.532%,60dailySPYcorrelation.09708; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Premise1 trend is below all averages; premise2 oversold alone need not reverse; premise3 ATR14simple.92607 andADR20.94825 constrain plausiblefive-session base-hit target. Hypothetical1ATRstop34.77393/1.5ATRtarget37.08911 fits1.5grossRR but fees lower netRR and market invalidation not proven. 20daylow35.47 is only.23belowclose, likely vulnerable to normalrange;20dayhigh43.03 too remote for basehit. Do not pretend either is adopted stop/target; no holdings. 49.14cap affords1share at staleprice, not evidenceofedge; partialIEXmeanvolume14067.8cannotbe calledconsolidatedliquidity. Mean-reversioncountercase is plausible but wouldneed independently tested regime filter; no retuning of eventholdout. Combined signal conclusion: oversold/fallingtrend is conflicting evidence, allocation0, requirefreshquotes if rule ever qualifies.

Preregistered note830 before returns: T-5open/T-1close, excludeseventday, train2021–24 N16 and holdout2025–Sep4 2026 N6. 22SEC Item2.02 dates match issuer calls https://investor.scholastic.com/financial-information/quarterly-results . IEX adjusted daily1425bars from https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . vectorbt longonly fees5bp/slip10bp eachside, checked against independently compounded trades. Trainreturn-13.8619%,DD17.7126%,win50%,mean-.8216%; holdout+6.3868%,DD4.7942%,win66.667%,W2.16255%,L1.11608%,mean1.06968%/5sessions,bootstrap20k seed908 mean95%CI[-.60133,3.41469]%. Mechanical holdoutquarterKelly12.3659% is not adopted; trainingKelly0. Required1ATRstop/1.5ATRtarget sensitivity gives holdout+3.01377%,DD7.74758%,W2.59428%,L3.54457%,mean.547997%,CI[-2.10895,3.10375]%; stress25bpslip return1.17611%,mean.24680%,CI[-2.40218,2.79491]%. Daily worst-order stop-first and gap-open stop; target capped. DescriptiveT3/T10 sweep all24configs observations9479–9484; no holdoutwinner selection. Baseline SeptemberQ1 subgroup2021–24 all4negative versus2025+.7623%, only1OOSsamequarter; no seasonalrule adopted. Limitations: historicaladvance-noticeavailability,earlypreannouncement,corporate-actions/cashdividend execution,partialIEX,15min/extendedquotes unvalidated; daily marked drawdown can missintradaylow. Not an executable strategy. GenericCLI SMA10/50 N16return-16.54625%,DD65.46458%,win18.75% is separate grossdiagnostic. Conclusion noallocation; plausiblepositiveholdout doesnotrepairfailedtraining/wideuncertainty. Freeze prospectiveSep17open–Sep23close paperonly.

Premises:1 direct fund ledger has3closed,0wins,0open/pending (runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst).2 Python exact price/qty computation gives-31.937258USD,meanloss16.3806011%; RARE-29.804454USD is93.32% of losses, actual6.44035plannedR, stop overshoot10.01024/share.3 Two operatorliquidations censor intended exits. Conclusion live sample does not identify positive sizing edge; averagewinner unavailable, clipped adoptedKelly0. Validity follows missing payoff distribution; soundness limited by tiny selected sample and mixed exits. Counterexample: future event trades can win; zero observed wins does not mean truep0. Stop-level risk is not maximum gap loss. Fullpipeline event map and actual-window holdout must replace repeated deadline-only entries. Price data are realized venue records, not quotes or modeled fills.

No open holdings or queued orders in direct Catalyst ledger, so stop/target reset is inapplicable. Strongest watchlist attacks, each followed three steps: IONS: another pipeline failure can dominate one approval -> lost future economics -> lower diversified-pipeline valuation; September4 pelacarsen failure confirmed https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874015/000114036126035802/ef20081690_8k.htm . MIRM: Q3 AZURE1 overlaps September26 deadline -> readout can precede exit -> clinical repricing can outrun stops; source August5 https://ir.mirumpharma.com/news/news-details/2026/Mirum-Pharmaceuticals-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results-and-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx . ROIV: favorable physiological endpoint may not establish patient benefit -> more trials required -> costs/access dilute commercial value; September8 06:15ET first scheduled presentation leaves no regular runup https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-present-topline-results-phase-2-phocus-study-mosliciguat ; causal efficacy is an assumption, not predicted result. SCHL: asset-sale cash is nonrecurring -> rent and private buybacks use resources -> future capital returns depend on actual operations; originalJuly23release andAug27SEC in analysis746. PRAX: major-amendment extension -> three more months review and spending -> outdated September trade loses its calendar basis https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1689548/000168954826000069/prax-20260629.htm . Countercases: pipeline diversification, positive studies, commercial execution and repurchase accretion can create value; none is quantified event edge. Facts end at disclosures; magnitudes/probabilities of second/third effects unknown. Who benefits: trials/service providers and landlords can receive cash before common holders. Changed today: freshly verified date contradiction and SCHL discovery, not claimed new corporate announcements. Conclusion zero exposure pending validated payoff, no stop widening.

Premises:1 July23 issuer FY26 FCF436m includes >400m property-sale proceeds; FY27 FCFguide35–40m https://investor.scholastic.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholastic-reports-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-2026-results .2 EBITDA151.5m versus132.4m proforma means135–145m guide is comparable growth, not automatically a cut.3 August27 transaction filing: estate sold289624shares privately for11.5155m; remaining158.9m authorization is optional https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/866729/000119312526371245/schl-20260827.htm . Conclusion: reject extrapolating asset proceeds or interpreting private repurchase as persistent market demand. Valid inference; soundness limited by unknown coming-quarter cash, lease-adjusted valuation and future execution. Strong countercase: buybacks reduce share count and cash-generating book fairs can improve shareholder value. Who benefits: estate receives liquidity, remaining holders own larger fraction; landlords gain rent. Neither establishes five-session run-up edge. Freshness: documents are July/August, reread September8; not new operating news today.

START49.14 fundcash,850.99equity,flat. GOAL repeatable netpre-eventprofit. BINDING constraint independently validated edge in actualremainingwindow. PREMISES:1 Direct ledger19:41UTC Sep7 shows3closed0open/pending; Python realized-31.937258USD,0wins,meanloss16.3806011%,twooperatorliquidations censorintendedexits; averagewin unavailable (runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst).2 Exchange https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars reread19:41 confirmsSep7holiday. Sep6issuer https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-present-topline-results-phase-2-phocus-study-mosliciguat reread19:41:Sep8 06:15ETpresentation before08ETcall; no regularsessionrunup remains. Overnight alternative unvalidated.3 Aug19issuer https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx confirmsSep9beforeopen,08ETcall. One remainingregularsession differs fromfixed10-sessionrule. Prioranalysis728/719 N6holdoutreturn-1.719988%,DD14.258614%,p50%,W4.523391%,L4.828695%; Python mean-.152652% pertested9-sessionexposure,clippedquarterKelly0.4 Existing GIS N10holdout+.567% becomes-2.405%stress; ROIVmonths-longSMA+187%N3wins andgenericfive-session simulationmean-1.0207% cannot calibrateclinicalrunup. Prioranalyses728/719/675,data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; no newbacktest or retuning.5 Latestcollector48 savednote790 is complete1590characters but same3filings/recycledSep4headline,notnewvalidatededge; actualrun19:01vs prior18:45 expectation. Fiveactivejobs20armedmonitors0due through21UTC (runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_monitors?fund=catalyst). CONCLUSION no proposals,size0. VALIDITY cash follows absentvalidatedfeasiblenetedge. SOUNDNESS limitations:selectedsmallholdouts,censoredlivetrades,partialhistoricalfeed,unknownclinicalhazard andboundedcollection. Counterexamples:futurewinnerdespite0/3; overnightROIVrally; one-sessionCHWYgain; GISstressoverstatescosts; collectorsmissnews. These possibilities do not identifypositivepayoffparameters. Facts end at ledger,primaryschedules andsavedmeasurements; futureprobabilitiesunidentified. Priorcash unchanged; change only fordocumenteddate,unexpired independentlycostedactualentry/exitW/L,executablequotes,realisticRR>=1.5,gap-aware8.5099risk and49.14fundcap. Who benefits fromneedlessturnover:spreadrecipients. Consequences: unvalidatedentry->gap/costloss->smallercapital->fewerfeasiblepositions. Funding349.01shortfall notsizinginput. Existingpositivebranchesrecord/validate; adverse/delayedbranchesstaycash/reverify. No dueitemtoresolvenorcoverage renewalrequired; job52next20:31before21UTCnextfundrun. Finaljournalphase begins~19:42 within21planned/45hard; no needtospendunusedbudget.

START49.14 Catalyst cash,850.99 account equity,zero holdings/pending orders. GOAL repeatable net pre-event profit. BINDING CONSTRAINT independently validated edge for the actual remaining holding window. PREMISES:1 Venue ledger read16:32UTC Sep7, Python recomputed3closed,0wins,meanloss16.3806011%,realized-31.937258USD; two operator liquidations censor intended exits, averagewin unavailable (runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst).2 Exchange September7 holiday reverified https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars ; ROIV September6 issuer notice fetched16:32:25UTC through requests after web403 confirmsSep8 06:15ET ERS presentation before08ETcall/09:30ETopen https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-present-topline-results-phase-2-phocus-study-mosliciguat . Zero regular-session run-up remains.3 CHWY August19 issuer notice reverified16:32UTC confirmsSep9beforeopen/08ETcall https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx . Existing fixed10-session rule analysis38/readback719: N6 holdoutreturn-1.719988%,drawdown14.258614%,p50%,W4.523391%,L4.828695%; Python mean-.152652% per tested9-session exposure, clippedquarterKelly0. One remaining regular session is a different untested rule.4 Prior GIS holdout+.567% becomes-2.405% under stress,N10; ROIV months-long SMA holdout+187%/N3wins cannot size clinicalrunup; prior generic simulationmean-1.0207%,not clinical forecast. Source prior analyses675/719 and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; no new backtest or model refit performed.5 Direct monitor/job audit20armed0due,5active; new jobs48/52 outputs1590/1696chars contain all promised checks and END. No new validated trade evidence in bounded outputs. Sources runway:list_monitors?fund=catalyst and runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst . CONCLUSION allocation0, noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND. VALIDITY: failed actual-window edge gate entails cash under mandate. SOUNDNESS limited by selected small holdouts,censoredliveoutcomes,partialhistoricalfeed,unknown clinical hazard and boundedsourcecoverage. COUNTEREXAMPLES: future winners possible despite0/3; overnight ROIV could rally; one-sessionCHWY could gain; GIS stress may overstate costs; collectors can miss firstnews. None supplies independently measured feasible net payoff now. Facts end at ledger,issuer schedules,saved measurements; future returns remain unknown. Who benefits from needless turnover:spread recipients. Consequences: unvalidated entry -> gaps/cost losses -> lower capital -> fewer feasible future positions. $349.01 shortfall excluded from sizing. Change decision only on documented date,unexpired independently costed entry/exit edge with observed win/loss estimates,executable quotes,realisticRR>=1.5 and gap-aware8.5099risk/49.14fund caps. Existing favorable branches record/validate; adverse/delayed/absent branches cash/reverify. Collector52 actual16:31 delivery differs from prior16:15schedule,next20:31; static10:30UTC ROIV reminder is not guaranteed execution. Final record/report phase starts16:33UTC within25minute allowance/45hard; no need to spend unused research allowance.

START49.14 fund cash,850.99 account equity,no holdings/queued orders; GOAL repeatable net pre-event gains; BINDING CONSTRAINT independently validated edge for actual remaining window. PREMISES:1 Live ledger read13:51UTC confirms3closed,0open/pending; Python recomputes -31.937258USD,0/3wins,meanloss16.3806011%. Two operator liquidations censor strategy exits; no averagewinner or defensible positive Kelly from this sample. Source runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst .2 Exchange https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars confirmsSeptember7holiday; issuer https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-present-topline-results-phase-2-phocus-study-mosliciguat September6 notice confirmsSep8 06:15ET presentation before08ETcall/09:30ETopen. No regular-session run-up; extended-hours alternative is untested.3 ExistingCHWY38 holdoutN6 return-1.719988%,DD14.258614%,p50%,W4.523391%,L4.828695%; mean-.152652% per tested9-sessionexposure, clippedquarterKelly0. September9beforeopen https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx leaves1regularsession, not tested10-sessionentry.4 ROIV671 three months-long winning trades+186.999% cannot size a clinical run-up; ROIV674 generic simulation netmean-1.0207% does not estimate clinical outcomes. GIS675 prior holdout+.567% becomes-2.405% stressed,N10. Prior data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; no fresh retest justified.5 SRRK August21 issuer https://investors.scholarrock.com/news-releases/news-release-details/scholar-rock-provides-update-global-apitegromab-regulatory retainsSep30,explicit earlierdecision risk; alternate facilityreview/EUwithdrawal not independent approval probability. Latest job27 saved13:15UTC3RSS+SEC1090characters supplies no new validatedentry.6 Live monitors20armed0due and5activejobs, both result branches retained. runway:list_monitors?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst . CONCLUSION noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND,size0. VALIDITY cash follows failed feasible-edge gate; SOUNDNESS limited by smallselectedsamples,partialbars,censoredtrades and boundedcollectorcoverage. Counterexamples: (1) future winners possible despite0/3, (2) overnight profits possible but untested, (3) one-session CHWY could win but is a differentrule, (4) stress assumptions may overstatecosts but executableevidence absent, (5) favorableapproval may rally but probability/payoff unknown, (6) collectors can missfirstnews. None supportspositiveallocation. Facts end at savedmeasurements and issuer schedules; future returns and clinical probabilities unestimated. Who benefits from unnecessaryturnover: spreadrecipients. Consequences: unvalidated entry -> gap/costloss -> smallerfund -> fewer feasiblefuturepositions.349.01USDshortfall is not edgeinput. Change decision only with verifieddate/unexpiredtestedwindow,independentcostrobustW/L, executablequotes, realisticRR>=1.5 andgap-aware8.5099risk/49.14fundlimits. No new experiment falsely recorded as backtest. Timestamp correction: observation9178/9182/9183/9184 say~13:53 but actual fetch/computation occurred13:51-13:52UTC, before13:52:26 recording; use toolcreatedAt and this correction. Finaljournalphase starts~13:53 within25planned/45hard.

Trading run acts on existing research, without retuning rejected rules. START49.14Catalystcash,zeroopen/queued;GOAL repeatable netpre-event gains;BINDINGconstraint independently validated edge for actual remaining window. NUMBERED PREMISES:1 Live ledger confirms threeclosed,0open/queued; Python recomputation0/3wins,meanloss16.3806011%,realized-31.937258USD, twooperatorliquidations censor outcomes (runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst). Averagewinner absent; cannot infer futurep=0 or positiveKelly.2 Primary calendar https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars confirmsSeptember7holiday. IssuerSeptember6 https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-present-topline-results-phase-2-phocus-study-mosliciguat reverifiedSeptember7 placesSep8ERS06:15ET before08ETcall and09:30ETopen. No regularsession runup remains; earliestnews may precede presentation.3 PriorROIVanalysis671 months-longSMAholdout+186.999%,N3wins,noobservedlosses is mismatched; analysis674 genericfive-sessionbarriermean-1.0207%,notclinicalforecast.4 CHWYissuerAugust19 https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx reverifiedSep7:Sep9beforeopen/08ETcall. Analysis38 fixedten-sessionrule chronologicalholdoutN6 return-1.719988%,DD14.258614%,p50%,W4.523391%,L4.828695%,mean-.152652% per9sessionexposure,clippedquarterKelly0;one-sessionreplacement untested.5 GIS priorcalendarholdout+.567%/stress-2.405%N10 (analysis675 summary), currentreadback617 fifteenminutecloseproxy+2.8451%/stress-.1944% alsofails; no newprices or holdout reoptimization. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .6 Fiveactivejobs have successful savedoutputs;20armedmonitors,none due (runway:list_jobs?fund=catalyst ; runway:list_monitors?fund=catalyst). Jobs30/48/52 promisedchecks/END present; staticreminders andlimitedfeeds not exhaustive. CONCLUSION noPROPOSE/EXIT/ADJUST/FUND; allocation0. Validity: absent feasible validatedpositiveedge, cash follows mandate. Soundness constrained bysmallselectedsamples,partialIEX,noexactexecutionquotes,eventtiminguncertainty andcensoredlivetrades; no claim everyeventrulefails. Counterexamples: earlyextended-hours entry or favorableclinicalresult can produceprofit, but neitherhas a validatednetpayoff here. Facts end at fetchedschedules/ledger/recordedmeasurements; futureprofit andclinicalsuccess unestimated. Who benefits fromneedlessturnover:spreadrecipients. Consequencechain: unvalidatedentry->binarygap/transactioncost->smallerfundandfewerfutureviablepositions. Funding349.01USDshortfall cannot changeedge. Change decision only onverifiedevent/unexpiredtestedwindow/independentcostrobustwinandlossestimates/executablequotes/realistictargetRR>=1.5/gap-awarecaps. Existingmonitorsretainbothbranches:favorable->recordandvalidate,adverse/delayed->cashandreverify. No dueCatalystitem toresolve; otherfunds untouched. Finaljournalphasebegan12:33UTC wellwithin25planned/45hard. Gaps named, no longresearchthread needed.

Start state:49.14Catalystcash,850.99accountequity,zeroopen/queued;goalrepeatablenetpre-eventgain. Bindingconstraint independently validated edge for the actual remainingwindow. NUMBERED PREMISES:1 NewROIVSep6notice placesPHocusERS Sep8 06:15ET before08ETcall and09:30ETopen https://investor.roivant.com/news-releases/news-release-details/roivant-present-topline-results-phase-2-phocus-study-mosliciguat . No regular-sessionrunup remains.2 FrozenROIVgenericSMA10/50 costedholdout+187.00%,3months-longwins,noobservedlosses andnoeventfilter cannot calibrate a clinicalrunup.3 ExistingCHWYfixed10-sessionholdoutanalysis38 hasN6,p50%,W4.5234%,L4.8287%,return-1.720%,DD14.259%,clippedquarterKelly0; shorteningtoone remainingday is untested. ExistingGISanalysis626holdout+.567%,stress-2.405%,N10/CIcrosses0 also remainsrejected. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuer CHWY https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx .4 LiveCatalystledgerquery_trades readthisrun has0/3wins,meanloss16.3806%,twooperatorliquidations censorstrategyoutcomes; averagewinnerunavailable,nottruep=0.5 NewROIVriskcontext: support/attainabletargetRR1.146;1share30%gap10.4835>8.5099riskbudget; genericfive-sessionbarriermodelnet-1.0207%,notPHocusforecast. CONCLUSION noPROPOSE,EXIT,ADJUST orFUND; adoptedsize/quarterKelly0. Validity: evidencegatesfail,soabstentionfollows; soundness limited by partialIEX,selectedissuer/smallN,no15minutequotes or historicalclinicalfirst-newscohort. Strongcountercase: gooddata couldrally andlongtrendpayoff ispositive; thatdoesnotestablisha current runupentry. Facts end at dates/filings/measuredhistory; success/gaphazard assumptions are unestimated. Who benefits from needless turnover: spreadrecipients; cashpreservescapital. Monthly349.01shortfall isnotmodelinput. Change mind onlywith verifiedevent,unexpiredtestedwindow,independentnetedgeincludinglosses andcosts,executablequotes,realisticRR>=1.5 andgap-awarefund/riskcaps. Favorableresults ->prospectiveresearch; weak/ambiguous/delay ->cash. Calendaranalysis663 andobservations8954–8975 covernext2sessions.20existingmonitorsretained;ROIVadditionrejectedcapacity,collector52replaces33withROIVbranches. NoCatalystmonitorcurrentlydue;do not resolveotherfunds'. Archive20partsnotes660–679 readback20/20,manifest680. No liveholdingneedsstop.

Numpy seed9070800,100000 five-session IID paths sampled from752 ROIV2022–24 daily returns. Unrestricted gross endpoint mean+.46984%,p05-12.52714%,p95+14.86795%,loss49.822%; these are generic daily risk, not clinical outcome forecasts. Descriptive sensitivity uses Sep4ATR1.1575/price34.945 for stop3.312% and target4.969%; daily endpoint checks,stop at actual breached endpoint,target capped,fee5bp/slip10bp eachside. Base netmean-1.02070%,win45.992%,stopfirst44.685%,targetfirst33.972%,time21.343%; one-sharep05-$3.272. Assumed extra30%firstdaygap probabilities1/5/10% produce means-1.29903/-2.49798/-3.96143%; one-share loss>$8.5099 odds.942/4.949/9.894%. Zero added-gap scenario's0exceedances is a finite empirical-model result,not zero real tailrisk. Overlayprobabilities unestimated, IID destroys clustering, dailychecks miss15minute/exthours path, historicalpoolalreadycontainsnews, addedgapmaydoublecount. Positive unconstrained endpoint mean doesnotvalidate a profit-taking strategy. CONCLUSIONsize0; neitherMonteCarlo100000 nor a generic3-winholdout supplies independentclinicaledge or calibratedKelly. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; scriptsroiv.py/simulation.py archived; freezeprospectively ratherthanretunebarriers.

Premises: PHocus randomized135-patient Phase2 primary week16PVR;6MWT andNTproBNPsecondary https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/v2/studies/NCT06635850 . Sponsor once-daily inhaled sGC rationale and separate PHactor combination study with inhaled treprostinil https://www.pulmovant.com/press-release-february-6-2026 . IONS Sep4 outcome provides a counterexample to biomarker-to-clinical extrapolation, not evidence these mechanisms share efficacy https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874015/000114036126035802/ef20081690_8k.htm . FIRST: convincing PVR benefit with acceptable safety could justify further development; null/ambiguous data weakens it. SECOND: sustained functional benefit and tolerability could affect trial recruitment, later prescribing and payer interest; isolated physiology, missing data or subgroup-only effects may not. THIRD: only after approval/access and profitable uptake might competitive or combination economics affect Roivant and incumbent inhaled-treatment franchises; no automatic UTHR short or Roivant buy. Combination development means a rival mechanism need not be pure substitution. Who benefits: patients if outcomes improve, trial providers from further studies; shareholder benefit depends on development cost,ownership and reimbursement. Strongest bull case differentiation plus well-funded development; strongest countercase endpoint or safety gaps and market pricing can absorb good data. Conclusion monitor full data; causal commercial probabilities and margins remain unmeasured,allocation0.

Ran node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js --symbols ROIV --strategy sma-cross --fast 10 --slow 50 --days 1700.1167bars,13closedtrades,+232.8662%,DD50.6925%,win38.4615%,average14.0762%,buyhold336.2672%. Same-close signal/fill, no costs or independent split; source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars , /app/agent/dist/backtest.js . This fulfills tooling diagnostic, not event calibration. Separate frozen vectorbt next-open experiment includes chronologicalholdout and fees/slippage. Do not conflate shorter CLI startingdate with the2022-Jan3 vectorbtwindow or choose grossbest result. Verdict not adopted,allocation0.

Preregistered note652 before bars. vectorbt uses previous close's crossover, enters/exits next IEX daily open, fees5bp plus slippage10bp per side; chronological2022–24 train and2025–Sep4 2026 holdout, flat at split, final close liquidation. Baseline10/50: train+10.0652%, maxDD52.0737%,3/11wins,W34.8752%,L8.1652%; holdout+186.9989%,DD12.8047%,3/3wins,W52.4166%,no observed losses. Holdout entries/exits Apr29–Jul14 2025 (+2.1572%),Jul15 2025–May4 2026 (+136.0114%),May13–Sep4 2026 (+19.0810%). These are months-long holdings, not five-session or PHocus runups. Slippage25bp holdout+184.4275%,train+6.4923%. Predeclared adjacent fast5/20: train-33.5916/+48.8584%,holdout+107.5309/+203.3550%,N8/1 respectively; no winning variant selected. Premises: positive selected-issuer generic record, tiny holdout and unobserved loss tail, no clinical calendar filter, no validated stop/target or15minute execution. CONCLUSION reject for Catalyst sizing and no FUND proposal; independent diversified validation is absent. Strong counterargument trend is cost-robust; accept measured return but not inference to event success or fresh entry. This now-inspected holdout cannot be reused to retune. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; research/backtest.py and trade vectors, observations8988–8999. Both return and drawdown are percent; no claim three wins establish p=1.

Source Sep4IEX https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; SMA10/20/50=35.454/35.91775/35.2768. Close34.945 isbelowallthree,20sessionreturn-3.77255%,yetSMA10still>SMA50. A laggingpositivecrossoverstate isnotfreshentrysignal andrecentpriceweakness doesnotprovefailure. FrozenSMA10/50genericbacktestlastentryMay13,notSep7; thereisno mandate-compatiblepre-eventsessionleft. Premises indicatorsmixdifferentlookbacks; conclusionnooptimisticpick-oneinterpretation. Counterargumentlongtrendmayresume; acceptpossibilitywithoutconvertingitintoPHocussuccessprobability. No newsubgroup search orfitonnowseenholdout; allocation0.