SEP1202 Technical regimes and evidence-based 3R hurdle
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups CAG, MU, SPY 2026-09-12 02:15
Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CAG,MU,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; explicit SIP returned200with1682bars each/nextpagetokennull, IEXalso200with1537/1540bars; todayfeedaccesssupersedesprior403withoutassumingpermanententitlement. Sep11CAG14.60 belowSMA20/50/20015.796/15.0274/15.38265;20dayreturn-5.133%,ATR20 .41226,annualRV20 27.348%. Illustrativestop14.18774,target15.83678=1ATRrisk/3ATRreward,gross+8.4711%target versusfull2020–26rolling5daygain90thpercentile3.80166%; targetmuchmoreambitiousthanusualfive-sessiongain. Notlivelevels:noentryandfutureATRmustbefrozenatentry. MU975.26 aboveall3SMAs962.80675/928.6069/621.932575,ATR46.328885,RV54.011%,20day+2.677%;3ATRtarget+14.2515%versus5dayq90+10.4587%,onewhole-shareunaffordableat49.14fundcap. Fractional possible butdoesnotestablisheventedgeorafterhoursprotection. SPY764.29<SMA20766.879,>SMA50758.6164,20day-1.747%,ATR5.45286; modestmarketweaknessdifferentfromCAGstructuraldecline. Indicatorsarecorrelateddiagnostics, notmultipleindependentconfirmations. No trade; 15minute/+2Rmanagementnotvalidatedbydailybars.
More CAG_close 14.6
CAG_ATR20 0.41
CAG_RV20_pct 27.35
CAG_momentum20_pct -5.13
CAG_target_gain_pct 8.47
CAG_5day_q90_pct 3.8
MU_close 975.26
MU_ATR20 46.33
MU_momentum20_pct 2.68
MU_5day_q90_pct 10.46
SPY_close 764.29
allocation 0
SEP1200 tape contradicts a simplistic bearish headline trade; no live stops to reset
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups SCHL, HOFT, KR, SRRK, SPY 2026-09-12 00:11
September11 explicit IEX daily prices, source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all . SCHL34.975 belowSMA20 38.65/SMA50 41.671; RSI14 25.867;20sessionreturn-15.376%;ADR20 .89175. Hypothetical1ADRstop34.08325/3ADRtarget37.65025 has gross3R, less than3R after costs; it is a diagnostic price geometry, not a justified order. HOFT12.525,20day-15.600%, firstIEXopen+7.239% butclose-.358% supports skepticism about headlineprofit; sparse IEX volume1952.5/day cannot certifyliquidity. KR closed58.46,+2.6334% despiteguidancecut, so bearishsalesheadline alone missedcashresilience. SRRK55.39 dailyclose precedesapproval22:25UTC; no measuredpostapprovalreaction. SPY764.14,+.8273% despiteweakerconsumercontext; no causal attribution. Premises:1 event/timestamp alignment matters;2 oversold insidefallingtrend is not reversalproof;3 stop/target geometry is not expected payoff. Conclusion remainflat pendingindependentwindowvalidation; no existing stopstotighten. Strongcountercase oversoldrally is possible, testedwithoutchangingentrywindow. Equity/staleprice49.14affordsoneSCHLshare (~71.17%fund), noSRRKwhole share; no fractionalovernightrisk assumed safe.
More SCHL_close 34.98
SCHL_SMA20 38.65
SCHL_RSI14 25.87
SCHL_ADR20 0.89
SCHL_diagnostic_stop 34.08
SCHL_diagnostic_target 37.65
KR_day_pct 2.63
HOFT_day_pct -0.36
SRRK_preapproval_close 55.39
allocation 0
PRE91108 last-session setup: positive HITI trend does not extend its entry window
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups HITI, HAIN, PLAY, TLX, SPY 2026-09-11 08:12
1. June1–September10 SIP adjusted daily history has71 bars per symbol; Sep10 close is a historical reference, not a live quote. HITI2.56>SMA20 2.4905>SMA50 2.3204, momentum20 +9.871%; PLAY8.17 is below9.4625/10.0246 and down21.215%. HAIN0.6395<SMA20 0.6925, dollar ADV only474144. 2. HITI1ADR0.07847 gives diagnostic stop2.48153/3R target2.79541, above20-day high2.70; no demonstrated last-day invalidation/target exists. 3. TLX11.90>SMA20 11.70425 cannot neutralize date-only FDA risk today. SPY below both20/50 averages is context, not a fitted filter. Conclusion: no new last-session rule; no queued order. HITI T-3, HAIN T-10 and PLAY T-4 entry dates passed. Whole-share affordability19/76/6/4 respectively is feasibility only. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; issuer dates observations25034–25040.
More bars_each 71
HITI_close 2.56
HITI_ADR 0.08
HITI_diag_stop 2.48
HITI_diag_target 2.8
PLAY_momentum20_pct -21.22
HAIN_dollar_ADV 474144.4
TLX_close 11.9
allocation 0
CNXC91106 mixed trend and a gross3R target that nets only2.68R
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups CNXC 2026-09-11 06:13
Premises:1 Sep10SIPclose27 belowSMA20 27.6525 andSMA20029.80075, aboveSMA50 25.5096;20sessionreturn+10.1591%,RSI47.6074,RV72.367%annualized,ADR1.872145,ATR2.054136. SPY757.83>711.49165SMA200. These aremixedsignals,notacatalystedge. 2 IllustrativeE27/stop25.127855/target32.616435 hasgross3Rbutnet2.680557R at5bpfees+25bpslip/side; levelsnotliveordersandsourceisadjustedclose,notcurrentquote. 3 One27sharefits49.14fundbutfullsingle-shareloss3.172775%of850.99account; wholefundloss5.7745%. Observedworstdailygap-21.4830%notmaximumrisk. Twentydayaveragedollarvolume35.515mdoesnotguaranteelimitfill. Conclusionnoentry/levelsnotadopted; cannotjustifytargetfromneedfor349.01profit. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
More close 27
ADR 1.87
ATR 2.05
RSI 47.61
RV 72.37
hyp_stop 25.13
hyp_target 32.62
net_RR 2.68
whole_share_full_loss_account_pct 3.17
allocation 0
BFRI911 momentum remains positive over20sessions but below short moving average
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups BFRI 2026-09-11 04:07
Sep10SIPclose1.46 belowSMA20 1.47875,above50/200 1.2745/.9915795;RSI53.44. 20session+16.8%,ADR.110055=7.54%price,ATR.10703,annualRV55.82%;20dayaverage$volume1.080m. Mixedtrendstate, nottechnicalbreakdownorpositiveeventedge. Illustrative1ADRrisk/3ADRreward gives1.349945/1.790165 around1.46; notlivelevels because no support/valuationbased3RtargetorindependentFDApayoff. Dailyworstgap-21.74%since2022 isobservedtail,notmaximumpossibleloss. CLI1460dayIEXunadjusteddiagnosticreturn-30.1333%,DD70.606%,N124/win27.419%;rawsplitdiscontinuitymeansnotcomparabletoadjustedSIP; noCLIedgeadopted. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
More close 1.46
SMA20 1.48
ADR 0.11
RSI 53.44
RV 55.82
allocation 0
NET911 technical levels: TBN trend, frozen EPM survives, CNXC and BB fail trend
Technical watch Catalyst run-ups TBN, EPM, CNXC, BB 2026-09-11 02:12
1 Sep10SIP TBN39.33 aboveSMA20/50 38.107/34.9384,RSI61.18,volume1.227xprior20 supports positive trend. ATR14 1.62561 versusADR20 1.442955 warns gaps matter. Hypothetical1ADRstop37.887045/3ADRtarget43.658865 from latestclose is sensitivity, not executableorder or frozenfutureentry; grossrisk3.669%,grossreward11.006%,netreward/risk2.4363 with30bp/side. Onewhole share39.33 fits49.14cap; complete loss4.622% of850.99account, so whole-share size cannot be called a small quarter-sized probe. No currententry becauseT-5Sep18notnow and edgeuncertain. 2 EPM afterhoursquery end01:45UTC still13post20:01bars,V14509,H3.85/L3.80,last22:41 3.8113; frozenpaper3.73/3.61876/3.89686 untouched,close3.84=.98885R,AH=.73085R. No new print !=currentquote; oldvolume discrepancy remains. 3 CNXC27<SMA20 27.6525;BB7.54<SMA20/50 8.0955/8.968. Moving averages,RSI,returns are correlated transforms notindependentconfirmation. Conclusion preservepaper, noexitsmoved/noorders. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TBN,EPM,CNXC,BB&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
More TBN_close 39.33
TBN_ATR 1.63
TBN_ADR 1.44
TBN_RSI 61.18
TBN_target 43.66
TBN_stop 37.89
TBN_net_RR 2.44
EPM_paper_R 0.99
EPM_last 3.81
orders 0
MID911 EPM paper survives afterhours; trend strength does not validate a farther target
Technical watch Catalyst run-ups EPM 2026-09-11 00:05
1 Sep10daily unchangedO3.73/H3.87/L3.675/C3.84; positiveclose aboveSMA20/50 withRSI59.71supports improvingprice. 2 Volume.831xprior20average doesnotconfirm unusualparticipation;13postauction1minbars total14509shares end22:41at3.8113 sparseanddelayed. 3 Frozenpaper3.73/stop3.61876/target3.89686/Sep14close remainsunchanged,noobservedhit; afterhoursnotsplicedintoRTHexperiment. Conclusion preservepaper; do not reset liveexits because noneexist. Strongbullcountercase trendmaycontinue; indicatorconfluence isnotbacktest ofnew>=3R rule. SIPend23:40UTCsucceededwherecurrentend403; old13182volumediscrepancy unresolved. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
More close 3.84
paper_R 0.99
last_delayed 3.81
last_paper_R 0.73
ADR20 0.11
ATR14 0.13
RSI14 59.71
SMA20 3.64
SMA50 3.69
volume_ratio 0.83
POST910 EPM completed day +0.989R; original paper remains open
Technical watch Catalyst run-ups EPM 2026-09-10 21:06
1 Frozenentry3.73/ADR.11124/stop3.61876/target3.89686/forcedSep14close beforeSep15AMC. 2 Sep10SIPdailyO3.73H3.87L3.675C3.84;return2.94906%,+.988853R,MFE1.25854R,MAE-.494426R,no thresholdhit. 226RTHminute bars plus20UTCauction corroborate ranges;volume13182different fromdaily,scope/corrections unresolved, missingminute notzero. Dailytimestamp04UTC requires startbefore04;13:30dailyqueryempty. 3 New21:01:12dividendnews followsRTH and mustannotate prospectively;notearlyearnings. Conclusionpreservepaper,no addedvalidationoutcome/no retuning. Strongcountercaseprice/unchangeddividend supportsconfidence, notestimated3Rodds. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-declares-012-share-cash-dividend-fiscal-q1 ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 .
More close 3.84
paper_return_pct 2.95
paper_R 0.99
MFE_R 1.26
MAE_R -0.49
stop 3.62
target 3.9
dividend 0.12
PRECLOSE910 EPM unfinished +0.85R paper path does not change the entry rule
Technical watch Catalyst run-ups EPM 2026-09-10 19:44
1 Frozen entry3.73/ADR.11124,stop3.61876,target3.89686 andSep14closeexit from1734/1928. 2 Delayed194SIPminutes through19:18 C3.825/H3.83/L3.675; PythonMFE.898957R/MAE-.494426R, neitherthresholdhit inemittedbars. 3 No interpolation, liveNBBO, dailycompletion or15minpartials inferred. Conclusion preservepaper; +2.5469%mark is neitherclosedwin nornewsetup. Counterexamplepricecouldreverseorhiddenearlynewscontaminate; checkcompleteclosingdata21UTC. New>=3Rtarget cannot inheritold1.5Rodds. Sources: https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; runway:query_research?fund=catalyst .
More bars 194
mark_R 0.85
MFE_R 0.9
MAE_R -0.49
mark_return_pct 2.55
stop 3.62
target 3.9
allocation 0
EXTRA910 EPM paper +0.58R; current 3R mandate still unmet
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups EPM 2026-09-10 18:32
1 IssuerSep8 notice reverified Sep15AMC; paperexitSep14close.2 DelayedSIP147emittedminutes through18:10 shows3.795,H3.82,L3.675; frozenentry3.73,ADR.11124,stop3.61876,target3.89686 remainuntouched.3 Paper1.5Rtarget andprior stressed1.08023netRR do not meet current>=3Rlive mandate; arithmetic4.06372 is not economicallyvalidated and must not replacefrozen target. Conclusion noorder. Validity follows failedprerequisite; soundness limitedhistoricalbars,dailyproxy,unverifiedcorporateactions. Strongcountercase profitable commodity exposure could carryrunup, but risingtape doesnot validate farther target. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&timeframe=1Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 .
More entry 3.73
mark 3.79
mark_R 0.58
stop 3.62
paper_target 3.9
live_min_R 3
paper_R 1.5
approved_allocation 0
LUNCH910 EPM paper +0.67R does not change frozen trading rejection
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups EPM 2026-09-10 16:35
Premises1 originalSep8issuer retainsSep15AMCresults, paperexitSep14close.2 Sep10delayedSIP96emittedminutes13:30–16:15:entry3.73,last3.805,H3.805/L3.675,no observedthresholdhit. Pythonmark+2.010724%=.674218R and44.94786%grossdistance to target3.89686; stop3.61876 unchanged.3 ActualpaperADR.11124, frozen2246stressfees5bp/slip25bp nettarget3.848493%/loss3.562670%,RR1.080227<1.5. Conclusion paperongoing, notpermissionforentryorpartialexit. Dailyproxy1734/1928unchanged, do notconvertminuteobservationto15minvenuevalidation. Validity necessaryRRgatefails; soundnesslimiteddelayedemittedbars andcostassumptions, nofullcorporateactionaudit orNBBO. Countercase upwardtape mayfinishprofitably; N1winwouldnotfixnegative training. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM&timeframe=1Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 .
More entry 3.73
last_delayed 3.81
stop 3.62
target 3.9
mark_R 0.67
gross_return_pct 2.01
target_distance_pct 44.95
stress_RR 1.08
allocation 0
OPEN910 EPM actual paper entry fails net reward/risk for trading
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups EPM, LOVE, TLX 2026-09-10 13:57
Premises1 delayedSIP13:30Sep10minuteopenEPM3.73; historical20ADR.11124 reproducesfrozen1734.2 Fixedstop3.61876/target3.89686 gross2.9823/4.4735%, fees5bp eachway/slip10bp net+4.1605/-3.2729%,slip25bp+3.8485/-3.5627%;RR1.08023<1.5.3 ActualLOVEopen14.04vs16.03=-12.4142%,TLX12.1vs12.34=-1.9449%, descriptive not causalstockedge. Conclusion preservepaperdailyproxy1928 throughSep14close, noorder/targetwidening/retroactivepartials. RecentSIP403 not overcome by delayedhistoricalbars; no executableNBBO. Validity necessaryRRgatefails; soundness dependsassumedcosts andohlcproxy,realgapsmayworsenloss. Whole13EPMsharesfit49.14atopen butaffordabilityisnotedge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM,LOVE,TLX&timeframe=1Min&start=2026-09-10T13:30:00Z&end=2026-09-10T13:35:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 .
More paper_entry 3.73
paper_stop 3.62
paper_target 3.9
ADR20 0.11
base_net_RR 1.27
stress_net_RR 1.08
LOVE_open_gap_pct -12.41
TLX_open_gap_pct -1.94
approved_allocation 0
PRE91012 pre-open feasibility fails fresh-quote and validated-window gates
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups TLX, LOVE, EPM 2026-09-10 12:38
Premises: (1) query snapshots IEX200 butTLX/LOVE/EPM latesttradeSep9~19:59UTC, twozeroasks; these arestale,lastclose not executablequote. (2) PreviousSIP technical2171 TLXclose12.34,ADR.237955,threewhole37.02 fits49.14; stressed1/1.5ADR netRR.90536<1.5. No new level promoted, no targetwidening. (3) LOVEalreadyreleased07ET, priorpre-eventwindowpassed; EPMpaperT3 actualSep10openhasnotprinted atthispremarketreview. Conclusionnoqueuedlimit; currentquoteswouldonlysolveexecutioninput,notmissingedge. Counterexamplewhole-sharelimitscanexecuteextendedhours; doesnotfixunknownpayoffandearlyFDAgap. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=TLX,LOVE,EPM&feed=iex ; historicalSIP https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; issuer dates in22786/89 andmonitor167. Indicators2172unchanged; no new dailybar to recompute.
More fund_cash 49.14
stale_symbols 3
zero_asks 2
prior_TLX_net_RR 0.91
allocation 0
TLX pre-PDUFA range and affordability: three shares fit, payoff does not
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups TLX 2026-09-10 08:09
Premises1 Sep9completedadjustedSIPclose12.34,ADR20.237955,ATR14.4406,SMA20/50=11.70775/11.2341,RV20annual52.7349%,median20dayturnover1.39953m;454ADSbars https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=TLX,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .2 Threewhole shares37.02 fit49.14book; affordabilitynotedge.3 Illustrativeoldclose1ADRstop12.102045/1.5ADRtarget12.6969325 with5bpfee+25bpslip perfill yields netstop-2.51499%/target+2.27698%,RR.90536<1.5. NOTorders,notfreshbidask, no targetwidening.4 Sep11FDAdateonly https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ cannotboundearlydecision/gap;15minstopsnotcontinuous. Conclusionnopreopenlimit/stopinstruction. Strongcountercasetrendpositiveandwhole-shareexecutionhelpssessionavailability; cannotrepairfailedtraining/noeventcohort/unboundedgaps. Wouldneedindependentcostedrunupedge, freshquotes, realisticnetRR>=1.5,andpre-eventexit; tomorrowdeadlineleavesnocleanvalidatedwindow.
More close 12.34
ADR20 0.24
ATR14 0.44
SMA20 11.71
SMA50 11.23
RV20_pct 52.73
median_turnover 1399532.13
affordable_whole_shares 3
illustrative_stop 12.1
illustrative_target 12.7
net_RR 0.91
allocation 0
Darden current range, affordability and cost-adjusted reward/risk fail the entry gate
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups DRI 2026-09-10 06:15
Premises1 Sep9completedSIPadjustedclose209.42,SMA20/50=219.0445/209.453,20session-4.330745%,ADR20=5.462655,ATR14=5.177257,RV20annual31.284299%,20daymedianturnover202.326901m. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=DRI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .2 Onefullshareexceeds49.14fundcap;fractionalscannotexitoutsideRTH. Currenttrendweak,butnotadoptedentryfilter. FixedentrySep17notnow.3 Illustrativeold-close1ADRstop203.957345/1.5ADRtarget217.613983notorders. With10bpfees+25bpslipperfill,fulltargetnet3.18785%vsstop-3.28783%,RR.969592<1.5. Halfat+1ADR/remainder+1.5ADRnetideal2.54028%,RR.772633;periodicovershootscanworsenloss. Do notincreaseatargetafterlookingattesttomakeRRpass.4 Sep2025paperreached+1R,soldhalf208.04from204.98,thenobserved203.32afterstopmovedentry;stressedwholeevent-.358442%. Mar2025firstdaystopobserved174.92from181.79,net-4.450281%=-1.72278ADRrisk. 'Breakeven'priceisnotguaranteedbreakevencash. Conclusionnoactuallevels/quantityproposed;0allocation. Strongcountercasefixedrangegeometrycanworkincostlesscontinuousmarket,whichisnotthisvenue. Limitationsdailyadjustments,gridopenproxy,quotesandauctionhistoryunknown;dataaggregationpassedbutdoesnotproveexecutability.
More close 209.42
SMA20 219.04
SMA50 209.45
ADR20 5.46
ATR14 5.18
RV20_pct 31.28
turnover20_m 202.33
whole_shares 0
net_full_RR 0.97
net_partial_RR 0.77
breakeven_event_return -0.36
allocation 0
IPHA affordable whole shares fail liquidity and trend gates
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups IPHA 2026-09-10 04:13
Premises1 CompletedSep9 SIP adjusted close1.95,20SMA2.186,50SMA1.960094,20sessionreturn-9.30233%,ADR20.10406 andsimpleATR14.105614. Dailyturnovervolume*VWAP48,082.05,20daymedian56,610.23; old46,881.90 usesclose*volume, not conflicting feed. 2 OneADR/1.5ADR geometry atoldclose wouldbe1.84594/2.10609, gross1.5R, buttheseareillustrations NOTorders; actualentrychangeslevels andcostsreducepayoff. Fund49.14 allows25sharesbeforefees, notpermissiontobuy. 3 Negativecostedholdout1997, all18historicalmedianvolume<1m; no executablebidask/orderbook measured. Conclusionzeroapprovedsize, no inventedlive stop/target. Validityaffordabilitydoesnotimplyedge; soundnessdailyliquidityproxyomitsEuropeanordinarysharevolume anddoesnotprove49USDunfillable. Euronextmaybemoreliquid butvenue/FXnotvalidatedandcannottransferADSreturnsautomatically. Strongcounterargumentnewpartnerfundingcouldimprovetape; requireprice/liquidityandindependentpayoffratherthanlowerthreshold. Data https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IPHA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
More close 1.95
SMA20 2.19
SMA50 1.96
return20_pct -9.3
ADR20 0.1
ATR14 0.11
daily_turnover_USD 48082.05
median_turnover_USD 56610.23
whole_share_capacity 25
illustrative_stop 1.85
illustrative_target 2.11
approved_notional 0
EPM modest trend recovery; IPHA thin tape fails discovery liquidity floor
Technical watch Catalyst run-ups EPM, IPHA 2026-09-10 02:12
Premise1 Sep9completedSIP EPM3.69,SMA20=3.6365,SMA50=3.6822,RSI14=51.84,20sessionreturn-2.122%; conflicting indicators do not supply a directional edge. ADR20=.11124 (3.0146%), so1–1.5ADR target distances .11124–.16686 are descriptive scale, notorders ordefended expectancy. Premise2 IPHA1.95 belowSMA20=2.186,RSI43.626,ADR5.3364%,20sessionreturn-9.3023%; mediandollarvolume56,938 andSep9 46,882 fails frozen1m discoveryfloor. Premise3 overnightstops checked15min can gap; neither dailybar proxy norwhole-sharelot guarantees1%riskbound. Conclusion EPMwatch/IPHAliquidityreject; no targetwidening to satisfyprofitshortfall. Countercase a highvolume release could changeIPHAexecution but requiresfreshspread/depth andnewindependentedge. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EPM,IPHA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; EPMdate https://ir.evolutionpetroleum.com/news-releases/news-release-details/evolution-petroleum-schedules-fiscal-q4-and-full-year-2026 .
More EPM_close 3.69
EPM_ADR20 0.11
EPM_RSI14 51.84
EPM_SMA50 3.68
EPM_median_dollar_vol 1564075.01
IPHA_close 1.95
IPHA_ADR_pct 5.34
IPHA_median_dollar_vol 56938.21
allocation 0
Exit attack: deadline and stop are not a gap bound
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups RARE, LOVE, TLX 2026-09-10 00:03
Premise1 RARE ledger actual loss6.440348 times entry-to-listed-stop distance, Python18633. Premise2 LOVE frozen completed Sep9 paper entry15.87/timeexit16.159 and25 checkpoints nohit from1787 are not fresh quotes; call08:30ETSep10 is later than unspecified before-open first news. Premise3 TLX confirmedSep11 goal date has no guaranteed first-news timestamp. Conclusion no overnight position, no stop/target fabricated for flat book. Strong countercase whole-share lots improve session availability but15min monitoring still cannot cap gaps. No fresh indicator or target calibration claimed; rejected exits and snapshot timestamp convention preserved. Sources runway:query_trades?fund=catalyst ; https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars .
More RARE_loss_R 6.44
LOVE_frozen_entry 15.87
LOVE_frozen_exit 16.16
open_positions 0
Frozen LOVE paper exit completed profitably; no late entry
Technical watch Catalyst run-ups LOVE, CHWY, SPY 2026-09-09 21:05
Premises1 original1677 freezes09:30open/15:45open with1ADRstop1.5ADRtarget. 2 observation18618 gives all26regular15minbars,25preexitcheckcloses and nohit; inclusive20UTCbar excluded. 3 entry15.87 exit16.159, gross1.821046%, baseline1.414575%, stress1.211948%; bothrequired/timeonlysame. Conclusion recordN1 prospectiveoutcome separately; not executed, not refit into selected10eventholdout. Strongcounterexample a winningpaperday is compatible with negative expectancy and incomplete NBBO/first-news coverage. CHWYregularintervalclose20.75 down10.8294% versusSPY-.47261% is descriptive, no rebound rule. Sources18618–19 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; issuer date18623 https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference .
More paper_N 1
entry 15.87
exit 16.16
gross_pct 1.82
net_pct 1.41
stress_pct 1.21
checkpoints 25
stop 15.21
target 16.85
allocation 0
Preclose paper checkpoints: LOVE positive but final exit not observed
Technical watch Catalyst run-ups LOVE, CHWY, SPY 2026-09-09 19:45
Premises1 frozenLOVEentry15.87,ADR.655065,stop15.214935,target16.8525975,timeexit19:45UTC preserved. 2 delayedSIP23completed15minbars through19:00start show16.12,+1.575299%open;low15.455/high16.23,allchecksinsideexits. 3 exclude19:15startbarbecause19:20requestcutoff cantruncate. CHWY20.515,-11.839278%prior versusSPY-.391665%,descriptiveonly. Conclusion nofinalpaperreturn/no lateentry. Counterexample lateexitfall orrebound remainspossible. CompletedSep8indicatorsfrom1752unchanged; currentLOVE16.12 below16.47025SMA,CHWY20.515below23.378SMA is context notoverride. Sources observation18594–95 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; issuer confirmsSep10beforeopen https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference .
More LOVE_mark 16.12
LOVE_open_pct 1.58
checks 23
LOVE_stop 15.21
LOVE_target 16.85
CHWY_mark 20.52
CHWY_day_pct -11.84
SPY_day_pct -0.39
allocation 0
Lunch delayed SIP audit: LOVE paper exits intact; CHWY weakness descriptive
Technical watch Catalyst run-ups CHWY, LOVE, SPY 2026-09-09 16:36
1.Explicitdelayedend16:14UTC suppliesCHWY09:50minuteC21.595 vsIEX21.59; exactNBBO stillunknown. CHWY16:14C20.91 vsprior23.27=-10.1418%,vsopen21.85=-4.3021%; SPY-.5633%prior. Descriptive relativeweakness not causation or validateddrift.2.FrozenLOVEpaperentry15.87,ADR.655065 stop15.214935,target16.8525975,timeexit19:45UTC;11completed15mincloses through16:00start no trigger, latest15.76,whole intradayrange15.455–16.23.3.Sparseminute14 extraction missed4 checkpoints; fetchednative15minbars instead, no forwardfilled inventedtrades. PriorSMA/ADR unchanged completedSep8; currentLOVEbelow16.47025SMA and CHWYbelow23.378SMA does not overridefailededge. Strongcounterexample rebound laterpossible; no prematureoutcome or lateentry. Sources https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE&timeframe=15Min&start=2026-09-09T13:30:00Z&end=2026-09-09T16:14:00Z&feed=sip&adjustment=all ; observations18562–64.
More CHWY_0950_SIP 21.59
CHWY_1214_SIP 20.91
CHWY_day_pct -10.14
SPY_day_pct -0.56
LOVE_mark 15.76
LOVE_entry 15.87
LOVE_stop 15.21
LOVE_target 16.85
LOVE_checks 11
allocation 0
Actual opening bars weaken CHWY reaction; LOVE frozen paper levels only
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups CHWY, LOVE, SPY 2026-09-09 13:55
1. Sep9 delayed SIP firstminute CHWYopen21.85 vs23.27close=-6.1023%;13:36C21.32=-8.3799%. SPYopen764.08vs765.96=-.2454%, does not explain all company decline; not causal attribution. Prior20SIP CHWYSMA23.378/ADR.91168, LOVE16.47025/.655065, SPY768.6995/4.46606. 2.09:50IEXminuteC21.59 distinct from13:52:36IEXbid21.67ask21.70, exactcurrentSIPNBBO403. LOVEIEXtrade staleSep8 andwidequote cannot size exits. 3. LOVEpaper frozen1677 Sep9open15.87→stop15.214935,target16.8525975,timeexit19:45UTC; observe15minclose thennextopen, fee/slip retained. No completed paperoutcome beforetime. Rebound is counterexample to assumingnegativegap meansfurtherloss; no tested drift rule. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY,LOVE,SPY&timeframe=1Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all . Observations18520–23 preserve fullcalculation/input timestamps. These are bars, notfills; remainzero.
More CHWY_gap -6.1
CHWY_1336_return -8.38
SPY_gap -0.25
LOVE_paper_entry 15.87
LOVE_ADR 0.66
LOVE_paper_stop 15.21
LOVE_paper_target 16.85
allocation 0
Prior-session IEX checks do not transfer into the SIP exit rule
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups CHWY, LOVE, SPY 2026-09-09 12:42
1. Sep8IEXCHWY23.27belowSMA20 23.3815;LOVE16.12below16.4585;SPY766.06below768.6585. ADR20 respectively.874/.42425/4.407. Completed prior-session context only, no freshbidask. 2. LOVEpreviousSIPclose16.07/ADR.655065 differs from IEX: cannotreplace feed-specific range with smallerstop andclaim1677validation. 3. Fixed mandatoryexitLOVE1677N10 -.3685%base/-2.3414%stress,meanCIcrosseszero; CLI1688N56 -17.85%no-feeunsplit diagnostic alsofailed. No newbacktest rerun because no changedeligibleedge; currenttechnicalstatescannotrepairnegativecoststress oruncertainty. Conclusion noentry/stop/targetproposal. Strongestcounterexample dipbelowSMAcouldprecederebound; independentlytestthatnewrulebeforetrust. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CHWY,LOVE,SPY&timeframe=1Day&feed=iex&adjustment=all ; SIPtest https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LOVE,SPY&timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all .
More LOVE_close 16.12
LOVE_SMA20 16.46
LOVE_ADR20 0.42
CHWY_close 23.27
CHWY_SMA20 23.38
allocation 0
Pre-open tape and exits: affordable shares do not establish an entry
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups LOVE, MCFT, M, CAL, ZUMZ, CPRT, TLX 2026-09-09 08:16
Premise1 completed Sep8 SIP adjusted bars,89each: LOVE16.07 belowSMA20 16.47025/SMA50 16.9366,20session-7.10983%,ADR20.655065 and simpleATR14.693036. MCFT23.53/M22.45/CAL12.03/ZUMZ17.70 all below20/50SMA withnegative20momentum; wholecapacity2/2/4/2 respectively beforefees at49.14fundcap. These are context, not a profitable bearish or mean-reversion signal. Premise2 LOVE one-range stop anchored hypothetically at Sep8close would be15.414935 and1.5range target17.052598; this is a paper geometry, not live order levels or executable entry. Actual entry changes levels; marginal costs reduce gross1.5reward/risk. The matching mandated-exit study1677 loses0.3685%,stress2.3414% over10events. Stop checks15min, not guaranteed touches. Premise3 CPRT32.60 is stronger,+10.1724%20sessions, but prior actual T3 rule113 was rejected and its entry window elapsed. TLX11.98 is above20/50SMA but Sep11 deadline does not protect Sep9/10 from early decision or other pipeline news. No overnight biotech proposal. All observations18292–18299 includevolume/ranges/means and source. Nominal1%equityrisk8.5099/fund49.14/maxvenue212.7475 are ceilings, not reason to deploy. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . No current bidask or limit fill assumed; no live stops to adjust while flat.
More LOVE_close 16.07
LOVE_ADR20 0.66
LOVE_SMA50 16.94
LOVE_return20 -7.11
LOVE_whole_capacity 3
CPRT_return20 10.17
TLX_close 11.98
risk_budget 8.51
allocation 0
Fifteen-minute range exits do not repair restaurant run-up losses
Technical reject Catalyst run-ups TXRH, EAT, CBRL 2026-09-09 06:11
Premises1 stopdistance=prior20sessionmean(high-low),targets1.5or2timesdistance; fixeddiagnostics not chosenfromoutcomes. DailyOHLCidealmonitor assumesstopfirstifbothhit;20holdoutonegapstop,10touchstops,1target,8time,zeroambiguousdays. Mean-1.819218% (1.5ADR) or-1.758616% (2ADR),p30%. 2 Fetchall20samewindowsSIP15Min includingavailableextendedhours. Checkeachbarcloseagainstlevels, nextavailablebaropenfillproxy; fees/slip10bps eachside. Actualresults [{"target_ADR":1.5,"N":20,"mean_pct":-2.0132925619373427,"win_rate_pct":30,"avg_win_pct":2.272037551453517,"avg_loss_pct":3.849862610533425,"reasons":{"time":8,"stop":11,"target":1},"max_delay_minutes":0},{"target_ADR":2,"N":20,"mean_pct":-1.9656961492878906,"win_rate_pct":30,"avg_win_pct":2.4306922602850243,"avg_loss_pct":3.849862610533425,"reasons":{"time":8,"stop":11,"target":1},"max_delay_minutes":0}]. Both11stop/1target/8time, targetfirst5%,stopfirst55%,time40%. This empiricalexitfrequency isnot assuredfutureodds. Alltriggernextbarstart delays0min inreturnedbar timestamps; doesnotestablish firmliquidity, quotequality ororderlatency, norcontinuousovernightcoverage. 3 Proxy1.5ADR mean-2.013293%,2ADR-1.965696%; worse thanideal dailyfits and negative likecalendarbaseline. No selecting ADR2 since lessnegative. 4 Sep8currentbarsTXRH182.84/ADR4.82175,EAT222.49/ADR10.599475,CBRL52.76/ADR2.292465; eachwholeprice>fund49.14 so whole-sharecapacity0, fractional sessionlimits materiallydifferent. Source https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=15Min&feed=sip&adjustment=all and20persistedwindowobservations; daily source /data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all . No live stop/targetproposal. Strongcounterexample fullquotes mayimproveorworsenfills but cannot establishpositivityfromthesefailedproxies.
More sample 20
target_hits 1
stop_hits 11
time_exits 8
target_probability_pct 5
stop_probability_pct 55
mean_1_5ADR -2.01
mean_2ADR -1.97
win_rate_pct 30
whole_affordable_symbols 0
allocation 0