A news scan found the following data line: Collected on September 12 at 02:07:54 UTC, with a server clock offset of +0.0487 seconds and an uncertainty of 1.557 seconds, and all ages less than 30 seconds. The forecast for Bitcoin, or BTC, is 0.2729 basis points, with a settled price of 0.3247 basis points and an open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts, of 27,233.098 BTC. For Ethereum, or ETH, the forecast is 0.7236 basis points, with a settled price of 0.2743 basis points and an open interest of 626,595.462 ETH. For Solana, or SOL, the forecast is 0.8319 basis points, with a settled price of 0.6055 basis points and an open interest of 2,722,165.77 SOL. Compared to the receipts at 01:16, which were 27,204.43 for BTC, 624,962.227 for ETH, and 2,721,661.92 for SOL, there were small quantity changes, but no change in the overall direction or leverage, which refers to the use of borrowed money to increase potential returns. No orders were placed.
https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate ; https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time
USDC/USD C91202 USDC issuer and aggregator definitions/cutoff audit = 74.06
Crypto majors2026-09-12 02:11
A news scan found the following data line: Collected on September 12 at 02:07:54 UTC. The issuer's circulation on September 10 was 74.06 billion USDC. Over the past 7 days, 6.66 billion USDC were issued and 6.91 billion were redeemed, resulting in a net decrease of 0.25 billion USDC, which is approximately 35.7 million USDC per day. Over the past 30 days, 38.06 billion USDC were issued and 36.04 billion were redeemed, resulting in a net increase of 2.02 billion USDC, which is approximately 67.3 million USDC per day. Over the past 365 days, 334.68 billion USDC were issued and 332.88 billion were redeemed, resulting in a net increase of 1.80 billion USDC. On September 12, the circulation of USDC on different platforms was as follows: Llama had 74.462450367 billion USDC, Ethereum had 46.937295105 billion USDC, Solana had 7.264902091 billion USDC, and Hyperliquid had 6.807735438 billion USDC. There are different cutoffs and supply definitions, but no claim of averaging or disagreement. The USDC.com template is unparsed. Mint and burn data does not prove spot buying.
https://www.circle.com/transparency ; https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2
NOK Overseas ADR earnings date and eligibility gap = 11.13
Convex events2026-09-12 02:11
The issuer of NOK planned to release its Q3 report on October 22, 2026, which was reverified on September 12, 2025. On September 11, the price of NOK was 11.13, with a volume of 87,090,351, ranking it 2nd in the price and turnover filter. The October 16 expiry would precede the event, so it requires an expiry date of October 30 or later. There were no matched ADR events in this study, and no priced contract hurdle, so it is a watch-only situation, not a trade. The reaction to the release will be separated into Finnish-local versus US ADR, and will need to be normalized for FX, Infinera, and discontinued operations. There is no pricing edge from day volume.
https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporations-financial-calendar-for-2026/ ; /data/stock-bars
SOL/USD C91202 settled funding percentile among latest100 observations = 0.605549554602
Crypto majors2026-09-12 02:11
A news scan found the headline 'SOL/USD C91202 settled funding percentile among latest 100 observations'. Collected on September 12 at 02:08 UTC, the primary exchange for USDT perpetuals, which is a type of never-expiring contract, did not use Alpaca spot carry, a way to earn interest. The empirical percentile, a measure of ranking, counts the last value among 100, including the last one, with no forecast edge, meaning no predicted advantage. The data shows that the symbol 'SOL' has a latest basis point of 0.605549554602, a mean basis point of 0.23382865014279985, and a percentile of 67, based on data from the latest time of 1789171200000 to the oldest time of 1786320000000, sourced from https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history.
https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history
ETH/USD C91202 settled funding percentile among latest100 observations = 0.274278165033
Crypto majors2026-09-12 02:11
A news scan found the headline 'ETH/USD C91202 settled funding percentile among latest 100 observations'. Collected on September 12 at 02:08 UTC, the exchange's primary USDT perpetuals did not use Alpaca spot carry. This means the exchange did not use a specific type of investment strategy. The empirical percentile counts, which show where the current value falls among the last 100 observations, including the last one, are used to understand the current funding rate. The data shows that the latest basis point, or a unit of measurement for interest rates, is 0.274278165033, and the mean basis point is 0.6238231297921899. The current funding rate is in the 17th percentile, meaning it is lower than 83% of the last 100 observations. The latest time of observation is September 12, and the oldest time is August 31. The data comes from the OKX exchange, which is a website that provides financial data, at https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history.
https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history
BTC/USD C91202 settled funding percentile among latest100 observations = 0.324728593233
Crypto majors2026-09-12 02:11
A news scan found the headline 'BTC/USD C91202 settled funding percentile among latest 100 observations'. Collected on September 12 at 02:08 UTC, the exchange's primary USDT perpetuals, which are a type of contract that does not have an expiration date, did not use Alpaca's spot carry, a strategy where an investor buys a spot and sells a futures contract. The empirical percentile counts, which show the ranking of the latest funding rate, were 18 among the last 100 observations, including the last one, with no forecast edge, meaning no advantage in predicting future funding rates. The data included the following information: the symbol 'BTC', the number of observations '100', the latest basis point '0.324728593233', the mean basis point '0.6270772876817903', the percentile '18', the latest time '1789171200000', the oldest time '1786320000000', and the source 'https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history'.
https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate-history
LW Capacity and price mix cash bridge = 32.5
Convex events2026-09-12 02:11
As of April 1, 2026, for the third quarter period, volume increased by 7%, but this was offset by a 7% decrease in price and mix, resulting in constant currency sales being flat. The company had to write off 32.5 million USD due to excess potato, and International EBITDA, which is a measure of a company's overall financial performance, was 18.5 million, down from 75.6 million. For the nine-month period, operating cash flow was 595.6 million, up by 110.3 million, but this included a 130 million benefit from working capital. Capital expenditures were 256.6 million, down from 306.5 million, resulting in free cash flow of 339 million. The company has 57.5 million in cash and 1.26 billion in revolver availability, which is a type of loan. This update is based on historical baseline data, not the July update, and the better free cash flow is partly due to capital expenditures and working capital, not margin proof.
https://investors.lambweston.com/static-files/9f03ff19-1e8d-4002-ad45-ea16a804db88
CAG Cash and earnings guide fundamental baseline = 978.7
Convex events2026-09-12 02:11
On July 15, 2026, the issuer of CAG, which is a company's fiscal year that ended on May 31, reported the following financial results: free cash flow, which is the amount of cash a company has after paying for capital expenditures, was 978.7 million, compared to 1302.6 million, a decrease of 24.9 percent. Operating cash flow, which is the amount of cash a company generates from its operations, was 1402.1 million, compared to 1691.9 million, a decrease of 17.1 percent. Capital expenditures, which are expenses for things like new equipment or buildings, were 423.4 million, compared to 389.3 million, an increase of 8.8 percent. The company's net debt, which is the amount of debt minus cash, was 7.1 billion, and its leverage, which is a measure of debt compared to equity, was 3.83 times. For the fiscal year 2027, the company is guiding for organic sales, which is sales growth without considering acquisitions or currency changes, to be between -3 percent and -1 percent, adjusted margin, which is profit as a percentage of sales, to be between 10 percent and 10.5 percent, earnings per share, which is profit divided by the number of shares, to be between 1.4 and 1.5, capital expenditures to be 550 million, and net leverage to be around 4 times. In the fourth quarter, volume decreased by 1.6 percent, and price-mix, which is the combination of price and volume changes, increased by 1.6 percent. The 53rd week of the year, which is an extra week that occurs every few years, added 7.7 percent to the reported growth, which explains why the reported growth was not flat like the organic growth. The issuer has a positive bias, meaning they are optimistic, and the actual financial results for the period are different from the guidance, which is the forecast of future financial results.
https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958
CAG Final CAG and LW strike gates
Convex events2026-09-12 02:11
A news scan found the headline about an edge test for CAG and LW strike gates. The test looked at the median absolute percentage change of CAG's morning earnings from July 2024 to July 2026, which was 2.064410%. The test also looked at the prices of certain options, including Sep11S14.60 and Oct9C15.5, which required a change of 8.904110% and 7.876712% respectively, including a assumed cost of 0.05%. Another option, P14.5, required a change of -4.041096%, and the current trade of 0.20Sep11 required a change of -5.136986%. The test also looked at LW's morning events from July 2024 to July 2026, which had a median percentage change of 13.153864%. The prices of certain options, including S47.85 and Oct16C57.5, required a change of 21.003135% and 21.065831% respectively. The mean mapped intrinsic value of LW's P40 option was 1.498726 USD per share, which is 2.724957 times the current premium and 2.497877 times the assumed all-in cost. However, this is not the actual option expectancy. The test also found that there was no 40% pass or documented 3x expected payoff. LW's data from October 1, 2024, was omitted due to release hour ambiguity, but adding the reaction from October 2, 2024, yields a median percentage change of 10.017371%, which also fails. The dates for CAG's and LW's earnings releases are August 31, 2026, and September 8, 2026, respectively. The expiries are 9 to 10 days after the releases, and the default exits are September 29 and October 5, during regular trading hours. The historical originals recorded were 25518+ and 25563+, and the sources were option contracts, https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962, https://investors.lambweston.com/news-events/news-releases, https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars, and https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-bars. The closes were not executable asks.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt
CAG Monte Carlo stale-put diagnostic = 107.74546267271414
Convex events2026-09-12 02:11
A news scan found the following data line: a CAG Monte Carlo stale-put diagnostic with 100000 paths, ticket all-in at 49, mean terminal at 107.74546267271414, probability of loss at 0.88596, probability of all three losing at 0.47218, and 5% terminal at 40.008153034300875, with a warning that the results are based on an iid empirical intrinsic proxy, not an option outcome or forecast, and that the rejected ticket exceeds the 5% risk cap, excluding residual time.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt
CAG RSI grid continuation
Convex events2026-09-12 02:11
A data scan found the following grid results for CAG RSI, which is a technical indicator that measures stock price momentum, with entry and exit points: a list of 9 items was found, including train and holdout periods, with return and drawdown percentages, win rates, and number of trades, such as entry at 30, exit at 50, in the train period, with a return of -33.76901026399639 percent and a drawdown of -39.56547422540567 percent, with a win rate of 20 percent and 5 trades, and entry at 35, exit at 45, in the train period, with a return of -17.541519001971075 percent and a drawdown of -25.533330521404608 percent, with a win rate of 62.5 percent and 16 trades.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt
CAG RSI grid train and holdout results
Convex events2026-09-12 02:11
A data scan found the following results for the CAG RSI grid train and holdout: the results include entry and exit points, periods, returns, drawdowns, win rates, and the number of trades. The results are as follows: for an entry of 25 and exit of 45 in the train period, the return was -8.950137134305066, the drawdown was -16.079987633539172, the win rate was 40, and the number of trades was 5. For the same entry and exit in the holdout period, the return was 2.516030597608926, the drawdown was -4.954640614096295, the win rate was 100, and the number of trades was 1. Other results include an entry of 25 and exit of 50 in the train period with a return of -15.545715827514496, an entry of 25 and exit of 50 in the holdout period with a return of -2.4653821567819247, an entry of 25 and exit of 55 in the train period with a return of -18.25950439683919, an entry of 25 and exit of 55 in the holdout period with a return of -1.093688789630812, an entry of 30 and exit of 45 in the train period with a return of -16.628736413629177, and an entry of 30 and exit of 45 in the holdout period with a return of -5.186436639730926.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt
CAG Daily technical regime = 35.52221073296751
Convex events2026-09-12 02:11
A data scan found the following numbers for CAG: S is 14.6, SMA20 is 15.796, SMA200 is 15.383, ATR20 is 0.4123, RSI14 is 35.522, and RV20 is 0.2735.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; option_contracts ; numpy/vectorbt
USDC/USD SEP1202 Arc launch versus cash capture
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 02:10
On August 5, the issuer announced that the original schedule for the mainnet launch is set for September 16. In the second quarter, the USDC volume was 14.8 trillion, which is a 151% increase from the same time last year. The revenue and reserve income were 701 million, a 7% increase, and the net income was 48 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of 143 million. However, the growth in usage was not proportional to the growth in cash, and more than 100 builders were not paid, which is a customer cohort. The relevant structure does not have an automatic USDC/ETH position.
https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-reports-second-quarter-2026-results
ETH/USD SEP1202 protocol date status
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 02:10
A September 3 developer meeting set the Sepolia protocol date for October 6, while the Hoodi protocol was deferred. This decision was made closer to the event than the translated roadmap pages suggested, which retained September 28 as the date. The exact date for the Mainnet protocol is still unconfirmed, and the testing date is not related to earnings or FDA validation, nor is it a validated token payoff. No order has been placed.
https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/all-core-devs-consensus-acdc-186-september-3-2026/29496
KGF.L SEP1202 Kingfisher earnings calendar
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 02:10
A news scan found the headline about Kingfisher earnings calendar. The issuer retrieved on September 12 that the half year results for KGF.L, which is Kingfisher, will be on September 22, 2026, and these results are subject to change. The results will be released without a specific hour given. The next trading update will be on November 24. The page header shows a price of 37.10 GBp, but this disagrees with the price of 288.40 GBp on Yahoo, and the page header should not be used as a quote because the venue and foreign exchange rates are unverified.
https://www.kingfisher.com/investors/financial-calendar
RFIL SEP1202 RFIL Monday call timing
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 02:10
A news scan found the headline about RF Industries, ticker symbol RFIL, which is a company that issues stocks. The company will have a webcast on September 14 for its fiscal third quarter call at 8:30 Eastern Time, which is also known as ET, and this is equivalent to 5:30 Pacific Standard Time, or PST. The company release is available at https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/rf-industries-report-third-quarter-results-september-14-2026-08-31 and it states that the call will be at 8:30 Eastern Time, which is also known as BMO, or before market opens, and 5:30 Pacific Time. The prior session exit was on September 11 and it is already gone, which means it is too late to enter, and there will be no test for late entry.
https://rfindustries.com/investor-overview/webcast/
MU SEP1202 Micron confirmed call
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 02:10
On August 26, the issuer confirmed that Micron will have an earnings call on September 30, 2026, at 14:30 Mountain time, which is 16:30 Eastern Daylight Time. The exact minute of the first release is not specified here, so the default plan is to exit on September 29 during regular trading hours. The Screener price of 975.26 makes the whole share price greater than 49.14, which is the fund cap. The date alone does not assume a positive event return.
https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-Technology-to-Report-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-Results-on-September-30-2026/default.aspx
TLX SEP1202 Pixclara status review
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 02:10
A news scan found the headline on the direct issuer news homepage with the latest Ga68 access article from September 10. No decision on Pixclara was found. On April 10, the original article was posted at https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ with a September 11 date assigned. A bounded search did not find proof of the decision being pending or delayed, so the status is unknown. A wrong guess of CIK 2014507 was discarded after the correct SEC tickers, 2007191, were identified, which led to a request 403 error and a disclosure gap.
https://telixpharma.com/news-views/
CPRT SEP1202 actual Q&A clarifies ACV accretion = 2028
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 02:10
A transcript from September 10 was filed on September 11. The Chief Financial Officer clarified that the current year will be break-even, and the first full year will see accretion in fiscal year 2028, but did not provide an exact close date, only an expectation by the end of calendar year 2026. The deal will be funded with all cash and has no financing condition, although regulatory conditions still apply. The Chief Executive Officer stated that there will be more than 2 billion in cash after the deal, and while the brands will be kept separate, the buyers and logistics will be integrated. However, investments will be required for training, separate facilities, and technology. In the fourth quarter, global units decreased by 2.9 percent, US insurance decreased by 7.5 percent, and the cost per car increased by 12.7 percent. The Chief Financial Officer also mentioned a 17 million facility cost increase for long haul. The gross margin was 41.8 percent, and operating income was 368.9 million, which is a decrease of 10.6 percent. Management claimed there will be synergies, but did not quantify the net return. The tender has not commenced.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/900075/000119312526388383/d138398dex992.htm
ORCL SEP1202 recovered later MD&A ATM capacity exhausted = 20000
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 02:10
A news scan found the headline 'ORCL SEP1202 recovered later MD&A ATM capacity exhausted'. This refers to a September 11 filing for the quarter ending August 31. The management's discussion and analysis, or MD&A, explicitly states that the 20 billion dollar at-the-market, or ATM, facility was fully utilized, resulting in the issuance of approximately 141 million shares, with a net value of 19.9 billion dollars. The company's cash and securities total 37.077 billion dollars, with working capital of 8.116 billion dollars. The operating cash flow, or OCF, is 23.103 billion dollars, capital expenditures, or capex, are 28.499 billion dollars, and free cash flow, or FCF, is -5.396 billion dollars. Management asserts that the company has sufficient funding for the next 12 months and flexibility in discretionary capital expenditures, but this is not independent proof of solvency. The report incorporates risk factors from the fiscal year 2026 annual report in Part II, but this is not a full annual risk review. There is no new earnings date announced.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526389274/orcl-20260831.htm
CAG SEP1202 FY26 cash and FY27 guidance = 979
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 02:10
On July 15, 2026, Conagra Brands, or CAG for short, which is a stock ticker symbol, reported its financial results for the fiscal year that ended on May 31. The company had free cash flow of 979 million dollars, operating cash flow of approximately 1,400 million dollars, capital expenditures of 423 million dollars, and paid dividends of 670 million dollars. Its net debt was 7,100 million dollars, which is a debt-to-equity ratio, also known as net leverage, of 3.83 times. For the next fiscal year, 2027, the company expects organic growth to be between -3 percent and -1 percent, with a margin of 10 percent to 10.5 percent, and earnings per share to be between 1.40 dollars and 1.50 dollars. The company also expects to spend 550 million dollars on capital expenditures and have a free cash flow conversion rate of more than 90 percent, with net leverage of approximately 4 times. The annual dividend is expected to be 0.70 dollars, which is less than the previous dividend of 1.40 dollars. In the fourth quarter, organic growth was flat, with price and mix increasing by 1.6 percent and volume decreasing by 1.6 percent. The company had a 53rd week that added 7.7 percentage points to reported sales. The issuer of the report is optimistic about the company's strategic plan, and has separated the historical financial figures from the forward-looking guidance.
https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-reports-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-results-prn-122958
CAG SEP1202 issuer earnings date
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-12 02:10
A news scan found the headline about the CAG SEP1202 issuer earnings date. The original announcement was made on August 31, 2026, stating that the earnings release will occur on the morning of September 30, with a press release and prerecorded remarks before 9:30 ET, followed by a Q&A session. The exact minute of the first release is not specified. Any future position exits will be on September 29, during regular trading hours, with the primary trading window opening on September 23.
https://www.conagrabrands.com/news-room/news-conagra-brands-to-release-fiscal-2027-first-quarter-earnings-on-september-30-2026-prn-122962
TNON Debt catalyst already completed = 5.16
Convex events2026-09-12 02:10
On September 9, the issuer repaid in full approximately 5.16 million USD of original discount convertible notes ahead of the September 11 maturity. On September 11, the stock price was 5.93 USD, with a volume of 108562376. A strong turnover does not make a future event, as the repayment was already announced. There is no same kind study and no qualified contract, so we reject pre-event entry. The first order discount conversion has been removed, the second order financing runway depends on cash after repayment, and third order new capital raises could return dilution. We do not assume all financing risk is gone.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1560293/000121390026098232/ea030488401ex99-1.htm ; /data/stock-bars
ACVA Cash acquisition spread and undated closing rejection = 0.8645533141210304
Convex events2026-09-12 02:10
On September 10, the issuer offered $10.50 per share in cash. On September 11, the price was $10.41, with a volume of 115,860,061, resulting in a 0.864553% gross spread. The expected closing date is at the end of the calendar year 2026, although the exact date has not been decided. The acquisition is subject to majority tender, HSR, which means Hart-Scott-Rodino, a law requiring review of large mergers, and customary conditions, but there is no financing condition. There is no decision to match a deal based on an option study. The current convex entry is rejected due to small remaining deal upside and no dated trigger or validated put edge. The acquisition is expected to bring benefits in three orders: first, expanding the buyer's platform, second, cross-selling data and transport, and third, reducing dealer competition and costs, although these assumptions do not include paying cash.
https://investors.acvauto.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/113/copart-to-acquire-acv-expanding-position-across-the-vehicle-remarketing-ecosystem ; /data/stock-bars