FTK R91204 CLI diagnostic and bar integrity = 13.777436404528153
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
A diagnostic test was run on the FTK R91204 using a Command Line Interface, or CLI, which is a way to interact with a computer program using text commands. The test used a breakout strategy, which means buying when a stock price breaks out, or moves above, a certain level, over 20 days, with a stop loss of 10%, or selling when the stock price falls 10% below the buy price, and a target return of 30%. The results showed a return of 13.777436%, a drawdown, or maximum loss, of 49.907356%, and a win rate of 33.333333% over 66 trades and 1408 bars of data from the IEX exchange. The CLI used unadjusted data from IEX, which means it did not account for certain costs or adjustments, and did not set aside a separate holdout sample for testing. This means the results are not comparable to the SIP 3R rule, which is a different trading strategy. The test also did not consider sizing input, which refers to the amount of money invested in each trade. A separate test was run on September 11, 2020, which found 1682 unique matches between FTK and SPY, with 1086 matches from ACDC, and no missing dates for FTK compared to SPY, with valid high, low, open, and close prices. The primary entry day stops were November 6, 2024, with a price change from 6.38 to 5.90403, November 20, 2024, with a price change from 8.50 to 7.65604, and October 7, 2025, with a price change from 17.71 to 16.02776. There is no claim of 15-minute coverage, which refers to the frequency of data updates.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 final scenarios
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
The final scenarios for FTK R91204 are as follows: there are three possible scenarios, bear, base, and bull. In the bear scenario, the EBITDA margin assumed is 40, the multiple assumed is 12, the price is 11.982243501312476, and the return percentage is -56.15717708996533. In the base scenario, the EBITDA margin assumed is 52, the multiple assumed is 18, the price is 24.571823817989564, and the return percentage is -10.09211921701586. In the bull scenario, the EBITDA margin assumed is 65, the multiple assumed is 22, the price is 38.21053582772308, and the return percentage is 39.81169347867941. A news scan found the data line Sep11SIP27.33 + June30debt/Aug3shares. The multiples and odds are subjective illustrations, not estimated forecasts. The net debt of 45.998 million excludes leases unless stated, and the warrant case adds 2.18414 million shares and 4.5 million exercise proceeds. Other share-based compensation is not fully detailed. The cost shock assumes no pass-through, and the receivable lag assumes a uniform 40 million in the second half of the year over 184 days.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm
FTK R91204 final valuation
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
The final valuation for FTK R91204 is as follows: the basic market capitalization is 989.90432457 million, the gross debt is 50.4 million, and the net debt is 45.998 million. The basic enterprise value is 1035.90232457 million, and the basic enterprise value to EBITDA ratio over 52 weeks is 19.921198549423078. The warrant-adjusted shares are 38.404569 million, and the warrant-adjusted enterprise value is 1091.09487077 million. The warrant-adjusted enterprise value to EBITDA ratio over 52 weeks is 20.982593668653845. The lease-inclusive basic enterprise value is 1042.37732457 million. A news scan found the headline Sep11SIP27.33 and the data point June30debt/Aug3shares. The scenario-weighted return percentage is -11.435683404976881, based on scenario weights of 0.3, 0.45, and 0.25. The reference stop loss percentage is 14.339773143066237, and the reference target gain percentage is 43.0193194291987. The target implied enterprise value to EBITDA ratio over 52 weeks is 28.110623615388853, and the target required EBITDA at 20 times is 73.08762140001102. The working capital extra for 30 days is 6.521739130434782 million, and for 60 days is 13.043478260869565 million. A supplier cost shock of 10 percent in Q2 is estimated to be 2.3624 million, which would raise guidance by 78.74666666666667 percent. Note that net debt of 45.998 million excludes leases unless stated, and the warrant case adds 2.18414 million shares and 4.5 million exercise proceeds. Other share-based compensation is not fully reflected. The cost shock assumes no pass-through, and the receivable lag assumes a uniform 40 million over 184 days in the second half of the year.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm
FTK R91204 measured financial
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line shows financial measurements for FTK, including cash flow, operating cash flow, and accounts receivable growth. The measurements are as follows: the first half free cash flow was -7.819, the first half operating cash flow to net income percentage was -45.01607717041801, and the first half total accounts receivable was 114.126. The first half accounts receivable growth percentage was 37.0932285848139, and the external accounts receivable growth percentage was 127.98403612876123. The external second quarter sales growth percentage was 23.75768571716561. The related second quarter days sales outstanding proxy was 114.61474475437284, and the total second quarter days sales outstanding proxy was 104.51624784888342. The operating cash flow to net income percentage is a measure of how much cash is generated from operations compared to net income. The days sales outstanding proxy is a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills, with 91 being the number of days used to calculate this. The OSP cash percentage net was 36.548223350253814, and the guide increment margin percentage was 15. The international second half growth minimum percentage was 217.4603174603175, and the international second half quarter run rate minimum was 20. The extra 30 days accounts receivable on the second half 40 was 6.521739130434782, and the interest on extra 30 days accounts receivable 6 months was 0.28532608695652173. The market capitalization basic was 989.90432457, the enterprise value basic ABL only was 995.9023245699999, and the enterprise value EBITDA basic ABL only was 19.151967780192305. These measurements were calculated on September 12 from completed bars on September 11 and the June 30 filing. The MC IID training bootstrap seed was 91204, and this is not a forecast. The DSO ending AR/Q2 sales * 91 mixes unbilled/shortfall and terms, and is not invoice aging. The ABL-only EV diagnostic is incomplete, and the final valuation should add 40 million PWRtek.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm
FTK R91204 measured technical
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
On September 11, 2026, the closing price was 27.33. The highest price in the last 20 days was 35.83. The simple moving average over 50 days, which is a calculation to smooth out price fluctuations, was 26.82. The average daily range, which is the difference between the high and low prices, over 20 days was 1.96. The average true range, which is a measure of price volatility, over 20 days was 2.05. The signal, which is a trigger to buy or sell, was false. The volume over 60 days was 103.03 percent of the average. The volume over 20 days was 700,525.6. The correlation, which is a measure of how two things move together, with ACDC over 60 days was 0.41, and with SPY, which is a stock market index fund, was 0.32. The stop, which is the price at which to sell a stock, was 23.41. The target, which is the price at which to buy a stock, was 39.09. From September 9, the return percentage was 14.40, while the SPY return percentage was -0.46. The residual percentage, which is the return of the stock minus the return of the market, was 15.66. The beta, which is a measure of volatility, over 60 days was 2.72, and the alpha, which is a measure of return compared to the market, was 0.000094. This analysis was calculated on September 12 from data available on September 11, and from a filing on June 30. The analysis used a training model with a seed of 91204, but did not make a forecast. The analysis also considered sales data, including unbilled and shortfall amounts, but not invoice aging. The valuation was incomplete, so 40 million PWRtek was added to the final valuation.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK R91204 measured mc
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:08
A measurement of FTK R91204 was calculated on September 12 from data completed on September 11, based on a June 30 filing. This calculation used a method called Monte Carlo, which is a way of simulating random events, with a specific seed number, 91204, for the simulation, and it is not a forecast. The calculation also considered sales data from the second quarter, which mixes unpaid and short-term bills, but does not account for how long invoices have been outstanding. Additionally, a diagnostic test called ABL-only enterprise value was found to be incomplete, so a final valuation was used, which included adding 40 million to the value of PWRtek. The results of the measurement include a sample size of 26, 30,000 paths, and 20 trades per path, with a range of possible outcomes, including a loss probability of 99.19666666666667 percent and a mean confidence interval of -10.889605279641955 to -1.1583756883662926 percent.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A trading fund report shows the following results from 2025-01-01 to 2026-09-11: a return of -19.57%, a drawdown of 36.01%, and a win rate of 27.27%. The mean return was -0.47%, with an average win of 29.07% and an average loss of 11.55%. The report includes 11 samples, with 3 targets and 0 entry day exits. The buy and hold return was 185.58%. The protocol used is Protocol2531, with a 2020 warmup period. The strategy includes a 2ADR stop and 3R target, with 40 sessions and 1bp fees on each side. There are two ordered slots per day, with entry day exits preserved. The stop is triggered by the first ambiguous bar. The vector BTC cash return is reconciled when flat. The daily proxy excludes 15min and +2R quarter management, with adjusted bars not used for live execution. The slippage was 15bp.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A data scan found the following information: the FTK R91204 L40 started on 2025-01-01 and ended on 2026-09-11 with a slippage of 5 basis points, which is a measure of the difference between expected and actual trade prices. The return was -17.78387832940527 percent and the drawdown, or largest loss, was 34.97608791075457 percent. The win rate was 27.27272727272727 percent. The sample size was 11 and the mean return was -0.26923054228368476 percent. The average win was 29.328203535652225 percent and the average loss was 11.368268321509651 percent. There were 0 entry day exits and 3 targets. The buy and hold return was 185.57993730407523 percent. The protocol used was Protocol 2531 with a 2020 warmup period. The strategy included a 2 ADR stop and 3R target over 40 sessions with 1 basis point fees on each side. There were two ordered slots per day and entry day exits were preserved. The stop was triggered by the first ambiguous bar. The vector BTC cash return was reconciled when flat, meaning when there were no open positions. The daily proxy excluded 15 minute and 2R quarter management and adjusted bars were not used for live execution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A trading fund manager's notes show the following information: the fund started on 2021-01-01 and will end on 2024-12-31, with a slippage of 15 basis points, which is a measure of the difference between expected and actual trade prices. The return percentage is -60.61025336424755, and the drawdown percentage, which is the peak-to-trough decline, is 60.61025336424757. The win rate percentage is 18.75, based on a sample of 16 trades. The mean percentage return is -4.856992186262564, the average win percentage is 20.700899270825026, and the average loss percentage is 10.754967137898161. The fund had 0 open positions, 2 targets, and 2 entry day exits. The buy and hold percentage return is -25.77881619937695. The protocol used is Protocol2531, with a 2020 warmup period. The next open position will have a 2 ADR stop and a 3R target, with 40 sessions. There is a 1 basis point fee on each side of the trade. The fund has two ordered slots per day and preserves entry day exits. The stop loss is triggered by the first ambiguous bar. The vector BTC cash return is reconciled when the position is flat, meaning there are no open trades. The daily proxy excludes 15-minute intervals and plus 2R quarter management, and adjusted bars are not used for live execution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
The FTK R91204 L40 started on 2021-01-01 and will end on 2024-12-31. It has a slippage of 5 basis points, which is a measure of the difference between expected and actual trade prices. The return percentage is -59.32939565913592, and the drawdown percentage, which is the maximum loss from a peak, is 59.39056671653302. The win rate percentage is 18.75, based on a sample of 16 trades. The mean percentage return is -4.666515551142478. The average win percentage is 20.942542894222807, and the average loss percentage is 10.576298269303699. The strategy had 0 open positions, 2 targets, and 2 entry day exits. The buy and hold percentage return is -25.77881619937695. The protocol used is Protocol 2531, with a 2020 warmup period. The next open is set to 2 ADR stop and 3R target, with 40 sessions. There is a 1 basis point fee on each side of the trade. The strategy has two ordered slots per day and preserves entry day exits. The stop is set to the first ambiguous bar. The vector BTC cash return is reconciled when flat, meaning when there are no open positions. The daily proxy excludes 15-minute periods and plus 2R quarter management, and adjusted bars are not used for live execution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A trading fund report shows the following results from 2025-01-01 to 2026-09-11: the fund had a return of -31.19728638446766 percent and a drawdown of 47.14714499619289 percent. The win rate was 28.57142857142857 percent, with a mean return of -1.3917287052941032 percent. The average win was 23.37766413995262 percent and the average loss was 11.299485843392791 percent. The report is based on 14 samples and includes 3 targets and 1 entry day exit. The buy and hold return was 185.57993730407523 percent. The protocol used is Protocol2531, which includes a 2020 warmup period, a stop loss of 2 ADR, and a target of 3R. The fees are 1 basis point per side and there are two ordered slots per day. The report also notes that the vector BTC cash return is reconciled when flat and that daily proxy excludes 15 minute and plus 2R quarter management. The adjusted bars are not live execution and the stop is triggered by the first ambiguous bar. The slippage is 15 basis points.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A trading fund report shows the following results from 2025-01-01 to 2026-09-11: the return was -29.24 percent, the drawdown was 45.86 percent, and the win rate was 28.57 percent. The mean return was -1.19 percent, the average win was 23.62 percent, and the average loss was 11.12 percent. The report also states that there were 14 samples, 20 levels, and 3 targets. The protocol used was Protocol2531 with a 2020 warmup, and the next open was set to 2 ADR stop and 3R target with 40 sessions. Fees were 1 basis point each side, and there were two ordered slots per day to preserve entry day exits. The stop was set to the first ambiguous bar. The vector BTC cash return was reconciled when flat. The daily proxy excluded 15 minute and plus 2R quarter management, and adjusted bars were not used for live execution. The slippage was 5 basis points.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A trading fund report for FTK R91204 L20 from 2021-01-01 to 2024-12-31 shows a return of -86.45 percent and a drawdown of 88.61 percent. The win rate was 15.38 percent. The average win was 21.41 percent and the average loss was 11.75 percent. The report includes 26 samples, with a mean of -6.65 percent. The buy and hold return was -25.78 percent. The protocol used was Protocol2531, with a 2020 warmup period. The strategy included a 2 ADR stop and 3R target over 40 sessions, with 1 basis point fees on each side. There were two ordered slots per day, preserving entry day exits, and stopping at the first ambiguous bar. The vector BTC cash return was reconciled when flat. The daily proxy excluded 15-minute and plus 2R quarter management, with adjusted bars not used for live execution. The slippage was 15 basis points.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A trading fund report shows the following results from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2024. The fund had a return of -85.72309236935189 percent and a drawdown of 88.21501408446859 percent. The win rate was 15.384615384615385 percent. The average win was 21.656665767474024 percent and the average loss was 11.574356401081175 percent. The fund had 26 samples, with a mean return of -6.461891452072682 percent. The buy and hold return was -25.77881619937695 percent. The protocol used was Protocol 2531, with a warm-up period in 2020. The strategy included a 2 ADR stop and a 3R target, with 40 sessions. There was a 1 basis point fee on each side of the trade. The fund had two ordered slots per day and preserved entry day exits. The stop was triggered by the first ambiguous bar. The vector BTC cash return was reconciled when flat. The daily proxy excluded 15-minute and 2R quarter management, and adjusted bars were not used for live execution. The slippage was 5 basis points.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A trading fund report for FTK R91204 L10 starting on 2025-01-01 shows a slippage of 15 basis points, which is a measure of the difference between expected and actual trade prices. The report covers the period from 2025-01-01 to 2026-09-11. The return was -7.50%, and the drawdown, which is the peak-to-trough decline in value, was 47.70%. The win rate, or percentage of successful trades, was 33.33%. The sample size was 15 trades. The mean return was 1.17%, the average win was 26.84%, and the average loss was 11.67%. There was 1 open trade, 4 targets, and 1 exit on the entry day. The buy-and-hold return, which is the return if the asset was held for the entire period, was 185.58%. The protocol used was Protocol2531, with a warm-up period in 2020. The trading strategy included a stop-loss order, which is an order to sell when a certain price is reached, and a target, which is a price at which to take profit. There were two ordered trades per day, with a focus on preserving entry day exits. A stop-first-ambiguous-bar rule was used, which means that if there was uncertainty about the direction of the market, the trade was stopped. The vector BTC cash return was reconciled when the position was flat, meaning when there were no open trades. The daily proxy, which is a measure used to estimate performance, excluded 15-minute trades and trades with a return of more than 2 times the risk, and was managed on a quarterly basis. Adjusted bars, which are used to account for changes in market conditions, were not used for live execution. The report also mentions 1 basis point fees on each side of the trade, and 40 sessions, which is likely a measure of the number of trading days.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A trading fund report shows the following results from 2025-01-01 to 2026-09-11: the return was -4.59%, the drawdown was 46.65%, and the win rate was 33.33%. The mean return was 1.37%, the average win was 27.10%, and the average loss was 11.49%. The report also lists the following parameters: a 10-unit position size, a 5 basis point slippage, 15 samples, 1 open position, 4 targets, and 1 entry day exit. The protocol used was Protocol2531, with a 2020 warmup period, and a strategy of 2 ADR stops, 3R targets, and 40 sessions. Fees were 1 basis point on each side, with two ordered slots per day, preserving entry day exits, and stopping at the first ambiguous bar. The vector BTC cash return was reconciled when flat. The daily proxy excluded 15-minute and +2R quarter management, with adjusted bars not used for live execution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A trading fund report shows the following results from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2024. The fund had a return of -77.08 percent and a drawdown of 87.05 percent, which is the largest peak to trough decline, a measure of risk. The win rate was 20.83 percent, with an average win of 17.38 percent and an average loss of 11.72 percent. The fund was open 1 time and had 3 targets. There were 2 entry day exits, meaning the position was closed on the same day it was opened. The buy and hold return, a simple investment strategy, was -25.78 percent for comparison. The protocol used is Protocol 2531, with a warm-up period in 2020. The strategy includes a stop loss, which is a order to sell when a stock falls to a certain price, and a target, which is a price at which to sell, with 2 ordered slots per day. There is a fee of 1 basis point, a unit of measurement for interest rates and fees, on each side of the trade. The vector, a mathematical concept, for bitcoin cash return is reconciled when flat, meaning when there are no open positions. The daily proxy, a substitute for actual data, excludes 15-minute data and plus 2R, a risk management strategy, quarter management. Adjusted bars, a way of representing trading data, are not used for live execution, meaning actual trading decisions.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
A trading fund report shows the following results from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2024. The fund had a return of -75.93 percent and a drawdown of 86.60 percent, which is the largest peak to trough decline. The win rate was 20.83 percent. The average win was 17.62 percent and the average loss was 11.55 percent. The fund was open 1 time and had 3 targets. There were 2 entry day exits. A buy and hold strategy would have resulted in a -25.78 percent return. The protocol used is Protocol 2531, which includes a 2020 warmup period. The next open is 2 ADR stop, 3R target, and 40 sessions. There is a 1 basis point fee on each side of the trade. The fund has two ordered slots per day and preserves entry day exits. The stop is triggered by the first ambiguous bar. The vector BTC cash return is reconciled when flat. The daily proxy excludes 15 minute and plus 2R quarter management and adjusted bars are not live execution.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=FTK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
TLX Late due-monitor primary status and contract eligibility = 0
Convex events2026-09-12 04:07
A check was made on September 12 at 04:05 UTC to review the original goal set on April 10 and the current news index as of September 11. No decision was found, so the status is unknown and not pending or delayed. An alternate index check also failed to provide a safe open. From September 21 to October 16, a query found 0 contracts. A historical study of similar kinds found no computable edge or option, with a size of 0. A retrospective review of 277 late items found that without a primary decision, the status remains unknown and will be handed off.
https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/ ; https://telixpharma.com/news-views/ ; option_contracts
Crisis-inclusive joint gap simulation = -14.651681012700644
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:07
A crisis-inclusive joint gap simulation was run on three stocks: QQQ, IWM, and EFA. The simulation found the following results for each stock: for QQQ, the worst gap percentage was -9.457211188520331 percent on 2020-03-16, the 1st percentile gap percentage was -2.5417955579341704 percent, and the stop plus double worst 50 basis points dollars was 10.222341755519116 dollars. For IWM, the worst gap percentage was -9.301937207748834 percent on 2020-03-16, the 1st percentile gap percentage was -2.593267816035804 percent, and the stop plus double worst 50 basis points dollars was 10.046224398296404 dollars. For EFA, the worst gap percentage was -11.623511623511618 percent on 2020-03-16, the 1st percentile gap percentage was -2.454582514001179 percent, and the stop plus double worst 50 basis points dollars was 12.064398515998139 dollars. The joint number of simulations was 2687, the worst joint dollars was -14.651681012700644 dollars on 2020-03-16, and the gap correlation between the stocks was as follows: QQQ and QQQ had a correlation of 1, QQQ and IWM had a correlation of 0.8115197250523069, QQQ and EFA had a correlation of 0.7788104197066453, IWM and QQQ had a correlation of 0.8115197250523069, IWM and IWM had a correlation of 1, IWM and EFA had a correlation of 0.8169406316518496, EFA and QQQ had a correlation of 0.7788104197066453, EFA and IWM had a correlation of 0.8169406316518496, and EFA and EFA had a correlation of 1. The simulation also found that the 95th percentile max loss dollars was 13.431428234944303 dollars, the 99th percentile max loss dollars was 17.969579733131003 dollars, the max loss dollars was 17.969579733131003 dollars, and the fraction of simulations with a loss over 3 percent was 0. The sum of individual double worst stress dollars was 32.33296466981366 dollars.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=QQQ,IWM,EFA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=split&start=2016-01-01
EFA Crisis-inclusive opening-gap stress and chronological tail check = -11.623511623511618
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:07
A measurement was taken on September 12, 2026, using a risk history from 2016 to 2026, with a fixed 5-year target window. The calibration from 2016 to 2024 was compared to the period from 2025 to September 11, 2026, as a descriptive chronological check, not a pristine out-of-sample strategy test. The results for the symbol EFA show a worst opening gap percentage of -11.623511623511618 on the worst date of March 16, 2020, and a 1% worst opening gap percentage of -2.454582514001179. The calibration period had 2263 data points, and the later period had 424 data points, with a 1% worst opening gap percentage of -2.469520972051647 during calibration. In the later period, 4 times the opening gap was below the calibration 1% level, which is 0.9433962264150944 percent of the time. The stop plus double worst 50 basis points in dollars is 12.064398515998139.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=EFA&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=split&start=2016-01-01
IWM Crisis-inclusive opening-gap stress and chronological tail check = -9.301937207748834
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:07
A news scan found the following data: Measured on September 12, 2026, the expanded risk history of IWM from 2016 to 2026 has a target window that remains fixed at 5 years. The calibration from 2016 to 2024 is compared to the later period from 2025 to September 11, 2026, as a descriptive chronological check, chosen after seeing the current history, and not as a pristine out-of-sample strategy test. The data includes the symbol IWM, the number of observations, which is 2687, the worst opening gap percentage, which is -9.3019 percent, and the worst date, which is March 16, 2020. The first percentile gap percentage is -2.5933 percent. The calibration number of observations is 2263, and the later number of observations is 424. The calibration first percentile gap percentage is -2.5573 percent. There were 5 instances where the later period was below the calibration first percentile, which is 1.1792 percent of the time. The stop plus double worst 50 basis points in dollars is 10.0462.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=IWM&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=split&start=2016-01-01
QQQ Crisis-inclusive opening-gap stress and chronological tail check = -9.457211188520331
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:07
A news scan found the following data: Measured on September 12, 2026, the expanded risk history from 2016 to 2026 has a target window that remains fixed at 5 years. The calibration from 2016 to 2024 is compared to the later period from 2025 to September 11, 2026, as a descriptive chronological check, chosen after seeing the current history, and not as a pristine out-of-sample strategy test. The data for the symbol QQQ includes the following information: the number of data points is 2687, the worst opening gap percentage is -9.4572, which occurred on March 16, 2020, the 1st percentile opening gap percentage is -2.5418, the number of data points in the calibration period is 2263, the number of data points in the later period is 424, the 1st percentile opening gap percentage in the calibration period is -2.5181, the number of times the later period was below the calibration 1st percentile is 6, which is 1.4151 percent of the time, and the stop plus double worst 50 basis points in dollars is 10.2223.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=QQQ&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=split&start=2016-01-01
NOK Cash flow and balance-sheet hard limits = -732
Convex events2026-09-12 04:06
The issuer's full report for the second quarter and first half of 2026, found on pages 7, 14, and 13, shows the following financial information. In the second quarter, the operating cash flow was -620 million euros, and the net capital expenditures were 112 million euros, resulting in a free cash flow of -732 million euros. For the first half of the year, the operating cash flow was 162 million euros, and the net capital expenditures were 266 million euros, resulting in a free cash flow of -104 million euros, which is down from 809 million euros in the prior period. The working capital outflow for the second quarter was 1,150 million euros. The net cash, excluding leases, was 2,776 million euros, which is down from 3,788 million euros in the first quarter, a decrease of 1,012 million euros or 26.716%. The total cash was 5,176 million euros. The number of shares, excluding treasury shares, was 5,598,645 billion, and the book value per share was 3.79 euros as of June 30. A type of financial metric called free cash flow, which is the cash available after expenses, can be affected by payment timing and working capital, so a one-quarter cash burn is not a permanent indicator of a company's financial health, and no exact fair value, or the true value of the company, can be determined from this information.
https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/3f0c9c33-04b4-4498-b6d8-f6705ef358a8
NOK AI orders and technical guidance revision versus cash = 2800
Convex events2026-09-12 04:06
A news scan found the headline about the July 23 issuer Q2/H1 2026 report. The report mentions direct management and promotional bias. The company received AI and cloud orders worth 2.8 billion euros, which is roughly half of the expected revenue within 12 months. This translates to a total of 1.4 billion euros, or approximately 116.7 million euros per month on average. However, this is not a linear guidance, and the company paid in cash. The sales of AI and cloud products increased by 105 percent, and optical products increased by 20 percent. The operating profit range for the fiscal year was raised to 2.1-2.6 billion euros. The company also reported 1 billion euros from discontinued business presentation, which remains operationally unchanged. For the third quarter, sales are expected to increase by 3-7 percent quarter-over-quarter, and operating profit is expected to be roughly flat compared to the second quarter, due to supply constraints affecting delivery. The company plans to spend 700-800 million euros on restructuring cash and 800-900 million euros on capital expenditures in 2026. It was noted that growth alone cannot establish an earnings surprise.
https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-corporation-report-for-q2-and-half-year-2026/