Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
ETH/USD C91204 results cells 45-48 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'Sep12 frozen experiment'. This refers to an experiment that was stopped on September 12. The experiment used data from 2024 and 2025 to train, and data from January 1 to September 11, 2026, to test. The decision rule was to immediately stop if the price moved a certain way, otherwise to wait for the price to pull back by a certain amount, which is called the Average True Range or ATR pullback depth. A fee of 25 basis points was added to each trade. The results include return, drawdown, mean, and win percentage. The trades were not fully closed and the results are not perfect because they are based on old data, which is called out-of-sample or OOS data. The results are as follows: for ETH with a 1-day time frame and a decision delay of 1 day, with a slip of 10 basis points, the return was 6.66376555369077 percent, the drawdown was 13.71663627894577 percent, and the win rate was 50 percent. With a slip of 30 basis points, the return was 16.41555276240574 percent, the drawdown was 29.4987512294249 percent, and the win rate was 50 percent. When the model was not being trained, with a slip of 10 basis points, the return was 2.090775938242717 percent, the drawdown was 5.176639016379648 percent, and the win rate was 100 percent. With a slip of 30 basis points, the return was 1.683226710297947 percent, the drawdown was 5.176639016379648 percent, and the win rate was 100 percent. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
ETH/USD C91204 results cells 41-44 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'Sep12 frozen experiment'. This refers to an experiment that was stopped on September 12. The experiment used data from 2024 and 2025 to train, and data from January 1 to September 11, 2026, to test. The rules were to immediately stop if the price moved a certain way, or to wait for the price to pull back to a certain level, which is called an ATR pullback depth, where ATR means Average True Range, a measure of price movement. There was a fee of 25 basis points, which is a way to measure a small percentage, credited to both the buyer and seller. The results are shown in a list: [{"s":"ETH","tf":"1Day","d":0.5,"train":true,"slipbp":10,"return":-23.68857142509103,"DD":34.213756214161194,"win":37.5,"N":8,"open":1,"mean":-2.1521207772281796,"targets":0,"stops":5,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":0},{"s":"ETH","tf":"1Day","d":0.5,"train":true,"slipbp":30,"return":-25.42440140968496,"DD":35.0882231565198,"win":37.5,"N":8,"open":1,"mean":-2.4191004843917105,"targets":0,"stops":5,"missing":0,"entryexit":1,"recon":0},{"s":"ETH","tf":"1Day","d":0.5,"train":false,"slipbp":10,"return":-0.2560795367949842,"DD":19.870208871574757,"win":66.66666666666666,"N":3,"open":0,"mean":0.03620787654811848,"targets":0,"stops":1,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":-1.1102230246251565e-16},{"s":"ETH","tf":"1Day","d":0.5,"train":false,"slipbp":30,"return":-1.2362885405404311,"DD":20.020377619446094,"win":66.66666666666666,"N":3,"open":0,"mean":-0.29720252039413164,"targets":0,"stops":1,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":0}]. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
ETH/USD C91204 results cells 37-40 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline about an experiment that started on September 12. The training period was from 2024 to 2025, and the holdout period was from January 1 to September 11, 2026. The decision rule was to immediately break out if d equals -1, otherwise use the average true range pullback depth. Fees of 25 basis points were credited to each side of the trade. The results include return, drawdown, mean, and win percentage. The trades were not all closed and not all were prospective out-of-sample trades. The results are as follows: for ETH with a 1-day time frame, a distance of 0.25, and training set to true, with a slip of 10 basis points, the return was -13.682997033565847, the drawdown was 30.76627877648086, the win percentage was 44.44444444444444, and there were 9 trades. With a slip of 30 basis points, the return was -15.9831622441457, the drawdown was 31.80913399017061, the win percentage was 44.44444444444444, and there were 9 trades. For the test set, with a slip of 10 basis points, the return was -0.2560795367949842, the drawdown was 19.870208871574757, the win percentage was 66.66666666666666, and there were 3 trades. With a slip of 30 basis points, the return was -1.2362885405404311, the drawdown was 20.020377619446094, the win percentage was 66.66666666666666, and there were 3 trades. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
ETH/USD C91204 results cells 33-36 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the following data line: Sep 12 frozen experiment. This refers to a test that was stopped on September 12. The test used data from 2024 and 2025 to train, and data from January 1 to September 11, 2026, to hold out. The decision rule was to immediately break out if d was -1, otherwise use the Average True Range pullback depth, which is a measure of price volatility. Fees of 25 basis points were credited to each side of the trade. The results include return, drawdown, mean, and win percentage. The trades were not marked as closed and the results are not pristine prospective out-of-sample, meaning they are not perfectly reliable. The results are as follows: for ETH with a 1-day time frame and d = -1, with 10 basis points slip, the return was 32.19%, the drawdown was 25.56%, and the win percentage was 43.75%. With 30 basis points slip, the return was -4.81%, the drawdown was 43.11%, and the win percentage was 31.25%. For the holdout period, with 10 basis points slip, the return was -12.63%, the drawdown was 24.35%, and the win percentage was 20%. With 30 basis points slip, the return was -13.99%, the drawdown was 24.62%, and the win percentage was 20%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
BTC/USD C91204 results cells 29-32 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'Sep12 frozen experiment'. This refers to an experiment that was stopped on September 12. The experiment used data from 2024 to 2025 for training and data from January 1 to September 11, 2026, for testing. The experiment had a rule that if the price moved immediately, it would be considered a breakout, otherwise, it would be considered a pullback. The depth of the pullback was measured using the Average True Range, or ATR, which is a measure of price volatility. The experiment also took into account fees of 25 basis points, or 0.25%, which were added to the results. The results include return, drawdown, mean, and win percentage. The results are for open positions that were not closed, and the data is not pristine or prospective out-of-sample, meaning it is not perfect or based on future data. The results are as follows: [{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","d":1,"train":true,"slipbp":10,"return":19.758755387344216,"DD":20.71605798412265,"win":50,"N":6,"open":0,"mean":3.600540494328003,"targets":1,"stops":2,"missing":3,"entryexit":0,"recon":-2.220446049250313e-16},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","d":1,"train":true,"slipbp":30,"return":18.398317636637795,"DD":21.352271005150993,"win":50,"N":6,"open":0,"mean":3.420130969837123,"targets":1,"stops":2,"missing":3,"entryexit":0,"recon":-2.220446049250313e-16},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","d":1,"train":false,"slipbp":10,"return":3.5895172935296538,"DD":8.75596176977782,"win":50,"N":2,"open":0,"mean":2.095590060189961,"targets":0,"stops":1,"missing":1,"entryexit":0,"recon":0},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","d":1,"train":false,"slipbp":30,"return":2.981083765220194,"DD":8.746361999812047,"win":50,"N":2,"open":0,"mean":1.7869270210402577,"targets":0,"stops":1,"missing":1,"entryexit":0,"recon":-2.220446049250313e-16}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
BTC/USD C91204 results cells 25-28 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'Sep12 frozen experiment'. This refers to an experiment that was stopped on September 12. The experiment used data from 2024 to 2025 for training and data from January 1 to September 11, 2026, for testing. The decision rule was to immediately stop the trade if a certain condition was met, otherwise to use a method called Average True Range pullback depth, which is a way to measure how far a price is likely to move. The fees were 25 basis points, which is a measure of the cost of a trade, credited to each side of the trade. The results include return, which is the profit or loss, drawdown, which is the largest loss, and mean, which is the average return. The results also include the percentage of winning trades. The trades that are still open are marked, and the results are not based on a pristine prospective out-of-sample test, which means the test was not done in a completely realistic way. The results are as follows: [{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","d":0.5,"train":true,"slipbp":10,"return":-17.092346434853635,"DD":31.952780168634444,"win":41.17647058823529,"N":17,"open":0,"mean":-0.6848427321102964,"targets":1,"stops":8,"missing":3,"entryexit":0,"recon":0},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","d":0.5,"train":true,"slipbp":30,"return":-20.531185021949426,"DD":32.18797818580333,"win":41.17647058823529,"N":17,"open":0,"mean":-0.9292018929952919,"targets":1,"stops":8,"missing":3,"entryexit":0,"recon":-1.1102230246251565e-16},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","d":0.5,"train":false,"slipbp":10,"return":1.302885890119554,"DD":9.540324449885318,"win":66.66666666666666,"N":3,"open":1,"mean":1.1439406849313736,"targets":0,"stops":1,"missing":1,"entryexit":0,"recon":0},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Hour","d":0.5,"train":false,"slipbp":30,"return":0.10613080735990543,"DD":9.912252832513568,"win":66.66666666666666,"N":3,"open":1,"mean":0.8061081876898987,"targets":0,"stops":1,"missing":1,"entryexit":0,"recon":0}] https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
BTC/USD C91204 results cells 21-24 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'Sep12 frozen experiment'. This refers to a trading experiment that was stopped on September 12. The experiment used data from 2024 and 2025 to train, and data from January 1 to September 11, 2026, to test. The experiment used a rule called 'immediate breakout' if a certain condition, d, was -1, otherwise it used 'ATR pullback depth', which is a way to measure how much a price moves back after a big change. The experiment also included fees of 25 basis points, which is a way to measure a small percentage, credited to each side of a trade. The results include return, which is the profit or loss, drawdown, which is the biggest loss, and mean, which is the average profit or loss. The results also include win percent, which is the percentage of trades that were profitable. The experiment was not pristine, meaning it was not perfect, and was prospective out of sample, meaning it was tested on new data. The results are: a list of trades for BTC, which is a type of currency, with the following details: time frame of 1 hour, d of 0.25, train true or false, slipbp of 10 or 30, return, drawdown, win percent, number of trades, open trades, mean, targets, stops, missing trades, entry exit, and recon. The list includes: [{'s': 'BTC', 'tf': '1Hour', 'd': 0.25, 'train': True,'slipbp': 10,'return': -26.711721943595045, 'DD': 34.64174868129714, 'win': 35.294117647058826, 'N': 17, 'open': 0,'mean': -1.4102467478242195, 'targets': 1,'stops': 9,'missing': 3, 'entryexit': 0,'recon': 0}, {'s': 'BTC', 'tf': '1Hour', 'd': 0.25, 'train': True,'slipbp': 30,'return': -29.59299855587161, 'DD': 37.020475272082166, 'win': 35.294117647058826, 'N': 17, 'open': 0,'mean': -1.6400741454010042, 'targets': 1,'stops': 9,'missing': 3, 'entryexit': 0,'recon': 0}, {'s': 'BTC', 'tf': '1Hour', 'd': 0.25, 'train': False,'slipbp': 10,'return': -1.945755441955288, 'DD': 10.626447602905742, 'win': 33.33333333333333, 'N': 3, 'open': 1,'mean': 0.28125152317705815, 'targets': 0,'stops': 1,'missing': 1, 'entryexit': 0,'recon': 0}, {'s': 'BTC', 'tf': '1Hour', 'd': 0.25, 'train': False,'slipbp': 30,'return': -3.1042102151150663, 'DD': 11.504638350105179, 'win': 33.33333333333333, 'N': 3, 'open': 1,'mean': -0.05313709484419856, 'targets': 0,'stops': 1,'missing': 1, 'entryexit': 0,'recon': 0}]. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
BTC/USD C91204 results cells 17-20 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'Sep12 frozen experiment'. This refers to an experiment that was stopped on September 12. The experiment used data from 2024 and 2025 to train, and data from January 1 to September 11, 2026, to test. The decision variable 'd' was set to -1, which means an immediate breakout, otherwise an ATR pullback depth was used. ATR stands for Average True Range, a measure of price volatility. Fees of 25 basis points were credited to each side of the trade. The results include return, drawdown, mean, and win percentage. The trades were marked as open but not closed, and the results are not pristine prospective out-of-sample. The results are as follows: the experiment used Bitcoin, a 1-hour time frame, and different slip values. The results for each scenario are: return of -55.00102646384883, drawdown of 55.54518118705916, win percentage of 25, and mean of -2.82008996360581 for the first scenario, return of -56.818599254851485, drawdown of 57.25554157464396, win percentage of 25, and mean of -2.9788461481517587 for the second scenario, return of 5.772356415511526, drawdown of 14.746844019014837, win percentage of 50, and mean of 1.1155628134529492 for the third scenario, and return of 4.406458723565176, drawdown of 15.585826085129806, win percentage of 50, and mean of 0.912104920277218 for the fourth scenario. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
BTC/USD C91204 results cells 13-16 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'Sep12 frozen experiment'. This refers to an experiment that was stopped on September 12. The experiment used data from 2024 to 2025 for training and data from January 1 to September 11, 2026, for testing. The decision rule was to immediately stop the trade if a certain condition was met, otherwise to use a method called ATR pullback depth, which is a way to measure how far a price moves away from a recent high or low. The fees were 25 basis points, which is a measure of the cost of a trade, credited to each side of the trade. The results include return, which is the profit or loss, drawdown, which is the largest loss, and mean, which is the average return. The results are as follows: the experiment was not completely open and not completely prospective out of sample, which means it was not a perfect test. The results are: [{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":1,"train":true,"slipbp":10,"return":-11.650904804174534,"DD":13.116749878670774,"win":0,"N":2,"open":0,"mean":-6.003788527160814,"targets":0,"stops":2,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":-1.1102230246251565e-16},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":1,"train":true,"slipbp":30,"return":-11.984104837031605,"DD":13.271483400636065,"win":0,"N":2,"open":0,"mean":-6.181213213948899,"targets":0,"stops":2,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":0},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":1,"train":false,"slipbp":10,"return":0.9484471663183003,"DD":7.485945722691223,"win":100,"N":1,"open":0,"mean":0.9484471663183003,"targets":0,"stops":0,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":-2.220446049250313e-16},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":1,"train":false,"slipbp":30,"return":0.5454581467251307,"DD":7.485945722691245,"win":100,"N":1,"open":0,"mean":0.5454581467251307,"targets":0,"stops":0,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":0}]. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
BTC/USD C91204 results cells 9-12 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'Sep12 frozen experiment'. This refers to an experiment that was stopped on September 12. The experiment used data from 2024 and 2025 to train, and data from January 1 to September 11, 2026, to test. The rules were to immediately stop trading if a certain condition was met, otherwise to use a method called ATR pullback depth, which is a way to measure how far a price might move. The experiment also included fees of 25 basis points, which is a way to measure a small percentage, credited to each side of a trade. The results included return, which is the profit or loss, drawdown, which is the largest loss, and mean, which is the average. The results also included win percent, which is the percentage of trades that were profitable. The results were marked as open, meaning not all trades were closed, and not pristine prospective out of sample, which means the results were not perfect and were based on data that was not used to train the experiment. The results were as follows: the experiment used Bitcoin, with a time frame of 1 day, and a parameter called d of 0.5. The results for the training data were a return of -17.012274977348362, a drawdown of 26.243268350855764, and a win percent of 20. The results for the testing data with a slip of 10 basis points were a return of 6.846405475014472, a drawdown of 7.772299771053159, and a win percent of 66.66666666666666. The results for the testing data with a slip of 30 basis points were a return of 5.571905381068043, a drawdown of 7.9562034604428895, and a win percent of 33.33333333333333. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
BTC/USD C91204 results cells 5-8 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'Sep12 frozen experiment'. This refers to an experiment that was stopped on September 12. The experiment used data from 2024 to 2025 for training and data from January 1 to September 11, 2026, for testing. The experiment had a rule to immediately stop trading if a certain condition was met, otherwise it used a method called ATR pullback depth, which is a way to measure how much a price moves away from a recent high or low. The experiment also accounted for fees of 25 basis points, which is a way to measure a small percentage, credited to each side of a trade. The results of the experiment are shown in a list of four sets of data. Each set of data includes information about the stock symbol, which is BTC, the time frame, which is 1 day, and other metrics such as return, drawdown, and win percentage. The list is as follows: [{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":0.25,"train":true,"slipbp":10,"return":-30.591041436760502,"DD":36.47165802126271,"win":12.5,"N":8,"open":0,"mean":-4.1491155432801765,"targets":1,"stops":7,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":0},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":0.25,"train":true,"slipbp":30,"return":-26.15732617303911,"DD":32.27854782377374,"win":14.285714285714285,"N":7,"open":0,"mean":-3.8674579243320926,"targets":1,"stops":6,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":0},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":0.25,"train":false,"slipbp":10,"return":9.40739781418447,"DD":7.772299771053159,"win":100,"N":3,"open":0,"mean":3.1106474421579877,"targets":0,"stops":0,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":0},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":0.25,"train":false,"slipbp":30,"return":8.102349336674198,"DD":7.9562034604428895,"win":66.66666666666666,"N":3,"open":0,"mean":2.699026858694546,"targets":0,"stops":0,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":0}]. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
BTC/USD C91204 results cells 1-4 = 4
Crypto majors2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'Sep12 frozen experiment'. This refers to an experiment that was stopped on September 12. The training period was from 2024 to 2025, and the holdout period was from January 1 to September 11, 2026. The decision rule was to immediately break out if d equals -1, otherwise use ATR pullback depth, which is a measure of how far the price of an asset pulls back before continuing in the same direction. ATR stands for Average True Range, which is a measure of price volatility. Fees of 25 basis points were credited to each side of the trade. The results include return, drawdown, mean, and win percentage. The results are not marked as closed and are not pristine prospective out-of-sample, meaning they are not perfectly representative of future performance. The results are as follows: [{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":-1,"train":true,"slipbp":10,"return":-18.780899587112955,"DD":28.541572839176144,"win":36.84210526315789,"N":19,"open":0,"mean":-0.6554924577834633,"targets":2,"stops":10,"missing":0,"entryexit":2,"recon":0},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":-1,"train":true,"slipbp":30,"return":-21.811291787780142,"DD":31.076728400489905,"win":31.57894736842105,"N":19,"open":0,"mean":-0.8423487376448678,"targets":2,"stops":10,"missing":0,"entryexit":2,"recon":0},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":-1,"train":false,"slipbp":10,"return":-6.733496353514679,"DD":23.19901299800766,"win":33.33333333333333,"N":6,"open":0,"mean":-0.8241897543704765,"targets":1,"stops":2,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":0},{"s":"BTC","tf":"1Day","d":-1,"train":false,"slipbp":30,"return":-7.74076939077144,"DD":24.088398026661785,"win":33.33333333333333,"N":6,"open":0,"mean":-0.9869356321689967,"targets":1,"stops":2,"missing":0,"entryexit":0,"recon":0}]. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars ; C91204 research/results.json
NOK Partner evidence does not establish paid Nokia revenue = 1100
Convex events2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline that evidence of a partner for NOK does not show that Nokia received payment. On September 12, a Series B release of $1.1 billion in customer financing was announced, which includes an investment or partnership with Nokia, but this is not a new payment to Nokia for 2026. The information about the partner originally came from Nokia, as stated by the Nokia CEO, but because of the financing relationship, there may be a bias in the information. An event page mentions a meeting on October 21, 2026, in Berlin for partner networking, but it does not promise any specific results or order releases, and it will take place from 19:45 to 23:00, although the time zone is not specified. There will be no extra trade based on this event, and the default plan is to exit the earnings position on October 21, which may happen at the same time as other news. https://www.nscale.com/press-releases/nscale-series-b ; https://www.nscale.com/events/gtc-berlin-nscale-vast-nokia-networking
NOK Infinera structural regime division = 6
Convex events2026-09-12 04:09
On February 28, 2025, the issuer confirmed the close of the deal. The last 6 earnings reports from April 2025 to July 2026, after the acquisition, had a median absolute change of 6.574035%. The median change for the 5 periods before the acquisition was 5.864627%. Both of these numbers are small and less than 8%. There is no statistical evidence to suggest that the new structure will produce typical earnings moves of 17.52% or 21.29%. The regime can change future returns, showing uncertainty without claiming that the current situation will remain the same, which is known as stationarity, a term that refers to a situation that does not change over time. https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/nokia-completes-acquisition-of-infinera-to-create-innovation-powerhouse-in-optical-networks-with-the-scale-to-power-the-data-center-revolution/
NOK First-news window and cash/option price thresholds = -8.6266094421
Convex events2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline about NOK's first news window and cash/option price thresholds. On July 22, 2025, at 19:00 EEST, which is 16 UTC, the issuer released actual preliminary Q2 guidance. From the close on July 21 to the close on July 22, the price decreased by 6.094421%. Through July 24, the price decreased by 8.626609%, not in an intraday isolated event. If we replace the July 24 residual in 11 events, the median absolute value is 7.165690%. If we exclude it, the median of the remaining 10 events is 6.515158%. The current price is 9.5, with a 27% chance of reaching 13.45, and there is 0% coverage in all sensitivities. At a price of 11.13, which is the fifth sorted return threshold, the call premium must be less than or equal to 0.47937677 or the put must be less than or equal to 0.26178620 after a 0.05 cost for 5 out of 11 events, with a normal risk maximum of 0.255297, which is tighter. The call ceiling for a strike price of 11.5 is -0.020623, and the put floor for a strike price of 10 is -0.738214, which cannot qualify even if they are free. No order will be triggered without fresh spot validation or revalidation. https://www.nokia.com/newsroom/inside-information-nokia-lowers-2025-operating-profit-guidance-due-to-currency/ ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NOK Bootstrap uncertainty and intrinsic-only repeated-loss scenario = 100000
Convex events2026-09-12 04:09
A trading fund manager analyzed the stock NOK using a method called bootstrap, which involves resampling data 100,000 times. The results showed a range of possible returns, with a median confidence interval of 3.97 to 8.47 and a mean confidence interval of -3.97 to 4.46. The analysis also included a normal scenario, which means a typical or expected outcome, and a stress scenario, which means a difficult or extreme outcome. In the normal scenario, the mean terminal value, or the average value at the end of the period, was 48.67, and the probability of loss was 1, or 100 percent. The half Kelly, a measure of the optimal amount to bet, was 0. In the stress scenario, the mean terminal value was 33.67, and the probability of loss was also 1, or 100 percent. On May 27, a specific trade, P9.5.27, had no intrinsic value, which means it had no value based on its underlying assets. The trade involved three sequential all-in tickets, which means the entire amount was bet at once, with a total value of 144.67, leaving 48.67 remaining. The analysis found that the empirical distribution, which is a distribution based on actual data, was not a 100 percent forecast of option loss, and that some values, such as residual time value and new tails, were missing. The premium, or the amount paid for an option, was 27 dollars, which is above the normal cap of 25.53. The scenario was not approved due to its size. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; numpy
NOK Raw adjustment audit maximum deviation = 0.015659106
Convex events2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline about a NOK raw adjustment audit. The maximum deviation was measured on September 12, with 11 events showing raw versus all close return differences, with a maximum of 0.015659106 percentage points. The following dates and adjustments were found: September 12 was not the date of the events, the events were on the following dates with these adjustments and differences: on 2024-01-25, the adjusted value was 11.444478812248684, the raw value was 11.436950146627556, and the difference was -0.0075286656211286385, on 2024-04-18, the adjusted value was 3.588290840415476, the raw value was 3.603603603603611, and the difference was 0.015312763188135126, on 2024-07-18, the adjusted value was -7.165689930740548, the raw value was -7.179487179487176, and the difference was -0.013797248746628021, on 2024-10-17, the adjusted value was -2.687673772011112, the raw value was -2.6905829596412634, and the difference was -0.0029091876301512443, on 2025-01-30, the adjusted value was 5.864626796476591, the raw value was 5.8558558558558405, and the difference was -0.008770940620750345, on 2025-04-24, the adjusted value was -8.474903474903472, the raw value was -8.474576271186429, and the difference was 0.0003272037170436448, on 2025-07-24, the adjusted value was -3.969327920613441, the raw value was -3.9823008849557473, and the difference was -0.012972964342306437, on 2025-10-23, the adjusted value was 11.16380882889456, the raw value was 11.171171171171167, and the difference was 0.007362342276607592, on 2026-01-29, the adjusted value was -7.782216304187017, the raw value was -7.771260997067452, and the difference was 0.010955307119564495, on 2026-04-23, the adjusted value was 4.763847801693344, the raw value was 4.766734279918872, and the difference was 0.0028864782255277888, on 2026-07-23, the adjusted value was -5.36585365853659, the raw value was -5.3501945525291745, and the difference was 0.015659106007415602. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
NOK T5 stress and CLI diagnostic controls = -3.8972721117
Convex events2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'T5 stress fees 1bp/slip 15bp/side' with the following data: a list of stress test results for the T5 strategy, which is a type of automated trading strategy, on the NOK symbol, which refers to the Norwegian krone currency. The results are: for the training window with a slippage of 0.0005, the return was -14.8119%, the maximum drawdown was 15.2531%, there were 8 trades, and the win rate was 12.5%; for the training window with a slippage of 0.0015, the return was -16.1641%, the maximum drawdown was 16.5149%, there were 8 trades, and the win rate was 12.5%; for the holdout window with a slippage of 0.0005, the return was -3.3189%, the maximum drawdown was 13.3143%, there were 3 trades, and the win rate was 33.3333%; for the holdout window with a slippage of 0.0015, the return was -3.8973%, the maximum drawdown was 13.4875%, there were 3 trades, and the win rate was 33.3333%. Additionally, a diagnostic test was run on the CLI, or command line interface, with the following parameters: symbols NOK, strategy momentum, which is a type of trading strategy, lookback 20, and days 1000. The results were: 685 bars, return 144.6351%, maximum drawdown 28.9654%, win rate 42.4242%, 33 trades, and a buy and hold return of 244.2040%. The test also noted that there was no holdout or option data, and the diagnostic did not trade on the edge, meaning it did not make any trades based on the test results. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; node /app/agent/dist/backtest.js
NOK Fixed pre-event vectorbt control and sensitivity sweep = -14.8119275586
Convex events2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'NOK Fixed pre-event vectorbt control and sensitivity sweep'. Measured on September 12, the strategy was to buy on days T-3, T-5, and T-10 when the market opened, and sell on day T-1 when the market closed, with fees of 1 basis point and slippage of 5 basis points per side. The training period was from 2024 to 2025 with 8 events, and the held-out period was 2026 with 3 events. The results do not include options. The performance was measured as follows: for a lookback period of 3 days in the training window, the return was -6.96%, the maximum drawdown was 7.94%, there were 8 events, and the win rate was 37.5%. For the same lookback period in the holdout window, the return was -5.06%, the maximum drawdown was 8.69%, there were 3 events, and the win rate was 66.67%. For a lookback period of 5 days in the training window, the return was -14.81%, the maximum drawdown was 15.25%, there were 8 events, and the win rate was 12.5%. For the same lookback period in the holdout window, the return was -3.32%, the maximum drawdown was 13.31%, there were 3 events, and the win rate was 33.33%. For a lookback period of 10 days in the training window, the return was -3.85%, the maximum drawdown was 13.02%, there were 8 events, and the win rate was 37.5%. For the same lookback period in the holdout window, the return was -10.07%, the maximum drawdown was 24.65%, there were 3 events, and the win rate was 66.67%. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; vectorbt
NOK Indicators and joint regime table = 60.974431994953626
Convex events2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline 'NOK Indicators and joint regime table'. As of September 11, 2023, there are 926 daily bars for NOK and SPY with no pagination. The current spot price is 11.13, the 20-day Simple Moving Average, or SMA20, is 10.340499999999999, the 50-day Simple Moving Average, or SMA50, is 10.33708, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average, or SMA200, is 9.659325. The Average True Range, or ATR20, is 0.4182949999999999, the Relative Strength Index, or RSI14, is 60.974431994953626, the Realized Volatility, or RV20, is 42.14530278741359, and the RV60 is 63.49799818597. The 20-day return is 5.397727272727271, the high is 11.17, and the low is 9.54. The beta for 60 days is 2.7177005376913175. A joint pre-event close table lists the following dates and data: September 11, 2023, is not in the list, but the list includes the dates 2024-01-25 with an RSI of 49.93884968740334 and above 200-day SMA set to false and joint set to false, 2024-04-18 with an RSI of 35.982325341345685 and above 200-day SMA set to false and joint set to false, 2024-07-18 with an RSI of 54.5919005420172 and above 200-day SMA set to true and joint set to true, 2024-10-17 with an RSI of 62.77188717928697 and above 200-day SMA set to true and joint set to true, 2025-01-30 with an RSI of 46.12355195417226 and above 200-day SMA set to true and joint set to false, 2025-04-24 with an RSI of 59.36257268110365 and above 200-day SMA set to true and joint set to true, 2025-07-24 with an RSI of 23.25214373260306 and above 200-day SMA set to false and joint set to false, 2025-10-23 with an RSI of 70.23843170622878 and above 200-day SMA set to true and joint set to false, 2026-01-29 with an RSI of 59.05753420001894 and above 200-day SMA set to true and joint set to true, 2026-04-23 with an RSI of 59.54297071347361 and above 200-day SMA set to true and joint set to true, and 2026-07-23 with an RSI of 34.85757456237589 and above 200-day SMA set to true and joint set to false. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
FTK R91204 facility and IP boundary = 3
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:09
A news scan found the headline about the FTK R91204 facility and intellectual property boundary. As of the 2025 annual filing on March 16, 2026, there are 3 US manufacturing facilities, with 2 owned facilities located in Connecticut and Marlow, Oklahoma, and Raceland, Louisiana, and 1 leased warehouse and sales facility in Dubai. The company has 144 granted patents, with 113 in Connecticut and 31 in Dubai, and 4 pending patents in Dubai. This differs from later promotional materials by over 130 due to differences in date and rounding. The facility table does not disclose tonnage capacity, utilization, or qualified alternate lead time, and there is no fabricated physical throughput ceiling. The market price is 27.33 with a 20-day volume of 700,525.6, which gives ample volume for a fund of 170.20, but this does not resolve the edge. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000020/ftk-20251231.htm
FTK R91204 quarterly cash timing refutes H1 averaging excuse = -6.601
Supply chain2026-09-12 04:09
A quarterly cash flow report for FTK, which is a type of financial document that shows the inflows and outflows of cash, was filed on May 7 for the first quarter of 2026. The report showed that the company had $0.021 million in operating cash flow, which is the cash generated from a company's operations, $1.002 million in capital expenditures, which is the money spent on assets that will last a long time, and $4.664 million in net income, which is the company's profit. The report for the first half of the year, filed on August 6, showed that the company had -$6.580 million in operating cash flow, $1.239 million in capital expenditures, and $14.617 million in net income. Using these numbers, it can be calculated that in the second quarter, the company had -$6.601 million in operating cash flow, $0.237 million in capital expenditures, and -$6.838 million in free cash flow, which is the cash available after capital expenditures. The net income for the second quarter was $9.953 million. In the first quarter, the free cash flow was -$0.981 million. The sales related to the first quarter were 74.1%, but this number fell to 56.5% in the second quarter. This information does not provide evidence of issues with Saudi invoices or permanent cash flow problems. The source of this information is the company's filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, available at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000047/ftk-20260331.htm
EFA Issuer index exposure
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:08
As of September 12, 2026, the current issuer page states that the EFA index tracks large and mid-cap developed market equities, which are stocks from established companies, outside of the US and Canada. This is the primary product description from the issuer, who has a commercial interest in the product. It is important to note that having exposure to foreign equities, or stocks from other countries, does not mean that the index is independent from global equity shocks, which are big changes in the stock market that can affect many countries at the same time. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239623/ishares-msci-eafe-etf?qt=EFA
IWM Issuer index exposure
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:08
A document from September 12, 2026, describes the IWM issuer index as a collection of small-capitalization US equities, which means it tracks the performance of smaller US companies. The document provides a general description of the product and the issuer's commercial interest, but it does not make any claims about the current weights of the holdings or their valuation being cheap. https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/summary-prospectus/sp-ishares-russell-2000-etf-3-31.pdf
QQQ Issuer index exposure = 100
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 04:08
As of September 12, 2026, the QQQ tracks the Nasdaq 100, which is made up of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq. The issuer, who creates and manages the product, has a primary role in its structure and is interested in its adoption. This information describes the QQQ's exposure, which is a description of what it includes, and is not an estimate of its value. https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html
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