Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
Selected basket historical dependence and diagnostic resampling
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the following data: the correlations between certain stocks are as follows: XLE is perfectly correlated with itself at 1, and has a correlation of 0.238174 with XLK, which is a measure of how much the prices of the two stocks move together, and a correlation of 0.241805 with XLV. XLK has a correlation of 0.238174 with XLE, a perfect correlation of 1 with itself, and a correlation of 0.389758 with XLV. XLV has a correlation of 0.241805 with XLE, 0.389758 with XLK, and a perfect correlation of 1 with itself. The bootstrap results, which are a way to estimate the uncertainty of the results, show that the 5th percentile is -9.666452027541009, the 50th percentile is 5.6271777823490305, and the 95th percentile is 20.4881103787369. The fraction of negative results is 0.2664. This data is based on 1330 daily rows of data and 5000 paths, which are different possible outcomes. The joint stress, a measure of how much the stocks move together in stressful times, is 17.636803280886355. This data is from June 2021 to September 2026 and was selected after the fact, not as a test of a strategy or to predict future odds. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
IWM September Empire State survey: activity/orders/prices = 7.6
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the headline 'IWM September Empire State survey: activity/orders/prices'. The Primary survey was released on 2026-09-15, with respondents answering from September 2 to 10. The survey showed that general conditions were at 7.6, compared to 20.6 in August. Other key points from the survey include: orders at 2.0, shipments at -3.2, delivery times at 18.8, supply chain issues at -11.9, employees at 10.6, workweek at 17.0, paid prices at 63.1, received prices at 28.1, and future expectations at 29.0. These numbers are based on regional respondent diffusion indexes, which measure the direction of change, not the overall growth of the economy or how much the results surprised the market. This information is provided for context only and does not override fixed trading signals. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2026/2026_09-empire-state-manufacturing-survey.pdf
ETH/USD Sep18 completed daily signal, reference payoff and conditional size = -46.74130474547925
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:16
A daily signal for ETH/USD was completed on September 18, with reference to a payoff and conditional size. The details are as follows: the symbol is ETH/USD, with 2086 bars of data as of September 17, 2026, when the close was 2445.7245. The return percentage was -46.74130474547925, and the simple moving average over 200 days, or sma200, was 2067.5034881083275. The average true range over 20 days, or atr20, was 93.71921616629997. The percentage of days with a return above 90, or p90_pct, was 42.543852520870196. The highest price over 20 days, or high20, was 2664.8535. The maximum gap, or max_gap, was 0.015875006146848114, which occurred on November 26, 2025. The stress fraction, which measures potential risk, was 0.11095594178482607. The stop loss was set at 2258.2860676674, and the target price was 3486.22992434679. The R value, which measures the reward, was 5.551185055263725, and the rank was 7. The size, or amount to invest, was 0. The data was measured through September 17, and the primary venue was Alpaca, with adjustments made for all ETFs. The average true range was calculated using arithmetic, and the p90_pct was calculated since September 18, 2021. The size is only for regular trading hours, and the intraday stress was calculated using the first two 15-minute lows across 41 crisis days, doubled and added to 50 basis points after the stop loss, with no guaranteed limit on potential losses. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD Sep18 completed daily signal, reference payoff and conditional size = -34.45640525971621
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:16
A daily signal for BTC/USD was completed on September 18, with reference to the payoff and conditional size. The signal is based on data from September 17, with 2086 bars of information. The closing price was 76356.6755, representing a return of -34.45640525971621 percent. The simple moving average over 200 days, or sma200, was 70340.00431958945. The average true range over 20 days, or atr20, was 2087.10826440355. The percentage of days with a return above 90 percent, or p90_pct, was 36.805348430604. The highest price over the last 20 days, or high20, was 82233.502538071. The maximum gap, or max_gap, was 0.016457402875454386, which occurred on December 14, 2025. The stress fraction, which measures potential risk, was 0.09078278325471173. The stop price, or the price at which the position would be closed, was 72182.4589711929, and the target price was 104460.01596780063. The R value, which represents the reward, was 6.7326024593726475, and the rank was 6. The size of the position was 0. This data was measured on September 18, with bars complete through September 17, on the primary venue Alpaca, with SIP adjustment for all ETFs. The average true range, or ATR, was calculated using arithmetic true range over 20 days, with endpoints since September 18, 2021. The size is prospective and only applies to regular trading hours, with zero filling. Intraday stress uses the first two 15-minute lows across 41 crisis days, doubled, plus 50 basis points after the stop, with no guaranteed loss ceiling. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
TLT Sep18 completed daily signal, reference payoff and conditional size = -5.336265771501325
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:16
A daily signal for the TLT symbol was completed on September 17, 2026, at 04:00:00+00:00. The closing price was 81.78, with a return percentage of -5.336265771501325. The simple moving average over 200 days, or sma200, was 84.3833. The average true range, or atr20, over 20 days was 0.6713750000000018. The percentage of days with a return above 90%, or p90_pct, was 6.153143932949214. The highest price over 20 days, or high20, was 83.28. The maximum gap, or max_gap, was 0.0334463805402877, which occurred on November 6, 2024, at 05:00:00+00:00. The stress fraction, which measures potential risk, was 0.08721349653006258. The stop price, or the price at which the trade will be stopped, was 80.43724999999999. The target price, or the desired price, was 86.81204110836586. The R value, which measures the reward, was 3.7475636629051223. The data was measured through September 17, and the bars are complete through September 17. The primary venue is Alpaca, and the SIP adjustment is used for all ETF adjusted-close total-return proxy, with reinvestment not independently reconstructed. The average true range, or ATR, is calculated using arithmetic total return over 20 days, with P90 endpoints since September 18, 2021. The size is prospective and only for regular trading hours, with zero filling. Intraday stress uses the first two regular trading hours 15-minute lows across 41 crisis days, doubled plus 50 basis points after the stop, with no guaranteed loss ceiling. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
GLD Sep18 completed daily signal, reference payoff and conditional size = 17.306163314585255
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the following data line for the GLD fund: the symbol is GLD, with 2692 bars, and a close of 398.36 on 2026-09-17. The return percentage is 17.306163314585255, and the simple moving average over 200 days, or sma200, is 416.16355. The average true range over 20 days, or atr20, is 8.003945000000005. The percentage of days with a return above 90%, or p90_pct, is 16.786147299684146. The highest high over 20 days, or high20, is 429.42. The maximum gap is 0.05980036297640645, which occurred on 2026-01-30. The stress fraction is 0.15997911418212116. The stop is 382.35211, and the target is 465.2292963830218. The R value is 4.177271107124157. The data is measured through September 18, with bars complete through September 17, on the primary venue Alpaca, with a SIP adjustment for all ETFs. The size is prospective and only for regular trading hours, with no guaranteed loss ceiling. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM Sep18 completed daily signal, reference payoff and conditional size = 28.648336858296485
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the following data: the symbol is EEM, with 2692 bars, and a close of 66.91 on 2026-09-17. The return percentage is 28.65, and the simple moving average over 200 days, or sma200, is 62.02. The average true range over 20 days, or atr20, is 0.95. The percentage of days with a return above 90, or p90_pct, is 10.72. The highest close over 20 days, or high20, is 69.13. The maximum gap is 0.11, which occurred on 2020-03-16. The stress fraction is 0.28. The stop is 65.00, and the target is 74.08. The R value is 3.76, and the rank is 1. The size is 89.95. The stress loss is 25.00, and the normal loss is 2.56. The target gain is 9.64. Intraday stress uses a value called g, which is 0.13, and was measured on 2020-03-16. The data was measured on September 18, with all bars complete through September 17. The primary venue is Alpaca, and the data is adjusted for the Securities Information Processor, or SIP. The ATR is an arithmetic true range, and the P90 endpoints are since September 18, 2021. The size is prospective and only for regular trading hours, or RTH. Intraday stress uses the first two 15-minute lows across 41 crisis days, doubled, plus 50 basis points after the stop, with no guaranteed loss ceiling. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EFA Sep18 completed daily signal, reference payoff and conditional size = 17.482827387547097
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:16
A daily signal for the symbol EFA was completed on September 18, with reference to its payoff and conditional size. The data as of September 17, 04:00:00, shows a close of 106.04, with a return percentage of 17.48%. The simple moving average over 200 days, or sma200, is 100.96, and the average true range over 20 days, or atr20, is 0.99. The percentage of days with a return above 90%, or p90_pct, is 9.63%. The highest price over 20 days, or high20, is 108.83. The maximum gap, or max_gap, is 0.12, which occurred on March 16, 2020. The stress fraction, which measures potential risk, is 0.25. The stop price is 104.06 and the target price is 116.25. The R value, which measures the reward, is 5.15. The rank is 4. The size is 0. This data was measured through September 17. The primary venue is Alpaca, with SIP adjustment for all ETFs. The average true range, or ATR, is calculated using arithmetic total return over 20 days, and the P90 endpoints are since September 18, 2021. The size is prospective and only for regular trading hours, with no guaranteed loss ceiling. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
IWM Sep18 completed daily signal, reference payoff and conditional size = 21.006443954553177
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the following data: the symbol is IWM, which had 2692 bars as of September 17, 2026, at 04:00:00+00:00, when it closed at 285.43. The return percentage was 21.006443954553177. The simple moving average over 200 days, or sma200, was 273.30589999999995. The average true range over 20 days, or atr20, was 3.3055000000000065. The percentage of days that ended higher than the current price over the past 90 days, or p90_pct, was 12.827297936488211. The highest price over the past 20 days, or high20, was 299.61. The maximum gap, or max_gap, was 0.09302747302565961, which occurred on March 16, 2020, at 04:00:00+00:00. The stress fraction, which measures market stress, was 0.2995400046970031. The stop price was 278.819 and the target price was 322.0429565001183. The R value, which measures risk, was 5.5381873393008965. The rank was 3. The size was 83.46. The stress loss was 24.999608792011877 and the normal loss was 1.9330626072942614. The target gain was 10.705662857793062. Intraday stress, which measures stress during the trading day, had a g value of 0.13890651917671604 on March 16, 2020, at 09:45:00-04:00, with a sample size of 82. The stress g value was also 0.13890651917671604. This data was measured for September 18, with all bars complete through September 17. The primary venue was Alpaca, with SIP adjustment for all ETFs, using adjusted close total return proxy, without independent reconstruction of reinvestment. ATR used arithmetic true range over 20 days, with P90 endpoints since September 18, 2021. Size is prospective and only for regular trading hours, with zero filling. Intraday stress uses the first two 15-minute lows across 41 crisis days, doubled, plus 50 basis points after stop, with no guaranteed loss ceiling. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
QQQ Sep18 completed daily signal, reference payoff and conditional size = 21.852638735446583
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the data line for QQQ, which is a symbol for an exchange-traded fund. The data is from September 17, 2026, at 04:00:00, and the closing price was 716.92. The return percentage is 21.85%. A simple moving average, or sma, is a calculation of the average price over a certain time period, in this case 200 days, which is 661.24. The average true range, or atr, over 20 days is 8.32. The 90th percentile, or p90, is a measure of the top 10% of values, which is 16.17%. The highest price in the last 20 days is 724.13. The maximum gap, which is the biggest difference between two prices, is 0.09%, and it happened on March 16, 2020. The stress fraction, which measures the amount of stress in the market, is 0.24. The stop price, which is the price at which to sell, is 700.28. The target price, which is the desired price, is 832.84. The rank is 2, and the size is 103.11. The stress loss, which is the potential loss in a stressful market, is 25.00, and the normal loss is 2.39. The target gain is 16.67. The intraday stress, which measures the stress during the day, uses the first two 15-minute lows during crisis days, and it is 0.11. The data is measured through September 17, and the primary venue is Alpaca. The data is adjusted for the Securities Information Processor, or SIP, and the total return is a proxy, which means it is an estimate. The size is only for regular trading hours, and it is zero-filled, which means that missing values are filled with zeros. The intraday stress has no guaranteed loss ceiling, which means that the potential loss is not limited. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY Sep18 completed daily signal, reference payoff and conditional size = 16.830998894213046
Core trend fractional2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the following data: the symbol is SPY, with 2692 bars, and a date of 2026-09-17 04:00:00+00:00. The close was 760.71, with a return percentage of 16.830998894213046. The simple moving average, or sma, over 200 days was 712.0295499999999. The average true range, or atr, over 20 days was 6.151500000000004. The percentage of days with a return above 90%, or p90 pct, since 2021-09-18 was 10.841971102491437. The highest high over 20 days was 773.38. The maximum gap, or max gap, was 0.10742052346643871, which occurred on 2020-03-16 04:00:00+00:00. The stress fraction was 0.2325394610454628. The stop was 748.407 and the target was 843.1859583737626. The rank was 5, with a size of 0. Measured through September 18, the data is complete through September 17. The primary venue is Alpaca, with a SIP adjustment for all ETFs, using an adjusted close total return proxy, without independent reconstruction of reinvestment. The average true range, or atr, uses arithmetic true range over 20 days, with p90 endpoints since 2021-09-18. The size is prospective and only for regular trading hours, with zero filling. Intraday stress uses the first two 15-minute lows across 41 crisis days, doubled, plus 50 basis points after the stop, with no guaranteed loss ceiling. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
XLU 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = -4.6645068595382755
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the data line for XLU on 2026-09-17. The data shows the symbol XLU, the date 2026-09-17, and 1331 bars. The close was 41.69. The returns were -0.05293048614266249 for 21 days, -0.056360344047080124 for 63 days, -0.0958577315116027 for 126 days, and 0.018568287319814303 for 252 days. The average return was -0.046645068595382755. The simple moving average for 200 days was 44.23335. The average true range for 20 days was 0.6305299999999991. The highest high for 20 days was 44.26. The stock was not eligible. The percentage of days the stock was above the average was 0.10231299337058808 over 1254 days. The minimum gap was -0.020194072908471083 on 2025-01-27. The stop was 40.42894 and the target was 45.95542869361981. The rank for all stocks was 11. The notional value was 0. The risk fraction was 0.030248500839529825. The stress gap was 0.1 and the stress loss was given as 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLU&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
XLY 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = -3.445838225489903
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the data line for XLY on 2026-09-17. Measured on September 18, 2026, the exchange aggregates were taken from Alpaca SIP, which is a data feed, and a proxy, which is a substitute for direct access. The returns were calculated using decimal values from adjusted closing prices. The true range, which is the difference between the high and low prices, was used to calculate the average true range, or ATR, over 20 days. The levels were based on the last closing price, not the price at which an order can be executed. The data for XLY includes the following: symbol XLY, date 2026-09-17, 1331 bars of data, a closing price of 111.39, returns of -0.0427 over 21 days, -0.0336 over 63 days, 0.0114 over 126 days, and -0.0729 over 252 days, an average return of -0.0345, a simple moving average of 116.61 over 200 days, an average true range of 1.561 over 20 days, a high price of 118.79 over 20 days, and the stock is not eligible, with a p90 value of 0.149, a p90_n value of 1254, a gap minimum of -0.054 on April 3, 2025, a stop loss of 108.27, a target price of 127.98, a rank of 10 among all stocks, no rank among eligible stocks, a notional value of 0, a risk fraction of 0.028, a stress gap of 0.108, and a stress loss of 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLY&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
XLC 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = 0.0627787555879139
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the data line for XLC on 2026-09-17. Measured on September 18, 2026, the exchange aggregates were taken from Alpaca SIP/proxy, which is a primary feed. The returns were calculated using decimal values from adjusted closes. ATR, which stands for Average True Range, used simple 20-day true ranges. The levels were based on the last close, not the executable entry. The data for XLC on September 17, 2026, included the following information: the symbol was XLC, the date was 2026-09-17, there were 1331 bars, the close was 112.35, the 21-day return was 0.01692614047791441, the 63-day return was 0.03149100257069404, the 126-day return was -0.005752212389380618, the 252-day return was -0.04015378043571127, the average return was 0.000627787555879139, the simple moving average for 200 days was 113.6426, the average true range for 20 days was 1.5849999999999995, the high for 20 days was 115.26, it was not eligible, the 90th percentile was 0.13792132350998396, the 90th percentile number was 1254, the minimum gap was -0.057623380204025465, the gap date was 2022-02-03, the stop was 109.17999999999999, the target was 127.84546069634668, the rank for all was 9, the rank for eligible was null, the notional value was 0, the risk fraction was 0.028215398308856245, the stress gap was 0.11524676040805093, and the stress loss was 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLC&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
XLI 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = 0.5030098499719082
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the following data: Measured on September 18, 2026, the exchange aggregates were taken from Alpaca SIP/proxy, which is a primary feed that provides financial data. The returns were calculated using decimal values from adjusted closes, and the Average True Range, or ATR, which is a measure of volatility, was calculated over a simple 20-day period with true ranges. The levels were determined using the last closing price, not the price at which an order can be executed. The data for the symbol XLI on September 17, 2026, is as follows: the stock had 1331 bars, or trading periods, and closed at 169.01. The returns over 21, 63, 126, and 252 days were -0.07931579234079644, -0.05665327081937932, 0.02860446716572329, and 0.1274849899933288, respectively. The average return was 0.005030098499719082, and the simple moving average over 200 days was 171.0458. The ATR over 20 days was 2.4502499999999983, and the highest price over 20 days was 182.03. The stock was not eligible, with a 90th percentile return of 0.12089831500695433, which occurred on day 1254. The minimum gap, which is the difference between the current price and a previous price, was -0.03352168601099581, and occurred on April 3, 2025. The stop loss, which is the price at which a trader will sell a stock to limit losses, was 164.1095, and the target price, which is the price at which a trader hopes to sell a stock for a profit, was 189.44302421932534. The stock ranked 8th overall, but its rank among eligible stocks was not available. The notional value, which is the total value of the stock, was 0, and the risk fraction, which is the proportion of the portfolio that the stock represents, was 0.028995325720371556. The stress gap, which is the maximum potential loss, was 0.1, and the stress loss was not provided. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLI&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
XLRE 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = 1.0313838090950904
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:16
On September 17, 2026, the XLRE sector signal was adjusted. The measurement was taken on September 18, 2026, using exchange aggregates from Alpaca SIP/proxy, which is a system that provides financial data, and one primary feed. The returns were calculated using decimal values from adjusted closing prices, and the Average True Range, or ATR, which is a measure of price volatility, was calculated using simple 20-day true ranges. The levels were determined using the last closing price, not the executable entry price, which is the price at which a trade can be executed. The data for XLRE on September 17, 2026, included a closing price of 42.94, a 21-day return of -0.0379, a 63-day return of -0.0149, a 126-day return of 0.0377, and a 252-day return of 0.0563. The average return was 0.0103, and the simple moving average over 200 days was 42.7645. The ATR over 20 days was 0.5042, and the highest price over 20 days was 45.465. The stock was eligible for trading, with a 90th percentile return of 0.1085, and a stop-loss price of 41.9315, and a target price of 47.6006. The stock was ranked 7th out of all stocks and 7th out of eligible stocks, with a notional value of 0, a risk fraction of 0.0235, a stress gap of 0.1, and a stress loss of 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLRE&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
XLP 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = 1.9767843027546972
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:16
A news scan found the data line for XLP on 2026-09-17. Measured on September 18, 2026, exchange aggregates were taken from Alpaca SIP or proxy, which is a system that provides stock market data, with one primary feed. The returns were calculated using decimal values from adjusted closing prices, and the true ranges were calculated using a simple 20-day average true range, which is a measure of stock volatility. The levels were determined using the last closing price, not the price at which the trade could be executed. The data for XLP on September 17, 2026, included the following: the symbol was XLP, the date was 2026-09-17, there were 1331 bars of data, the closing price was 83.49, the 21-day return was -0.0244, the 63-day return was 0.0047, the 126-day return was 0.0230, the 252-day return was 0.0758, the average return was 0.0198, the 200-day simple moving average was 82.94, the 20-day average true range was 0.9343, the highest price in the last 20 days was 87.47, the stock was eligible for trading, the 90th percentile return was 0.0765, the number of days at this percentile was 1254, the minimum gap was -0.0237, the date of this gap was April 7, 2025, the stop loss price was 81.62, the target price was 89.88, the rank of all stocks was 6, the rank of eligible stocks was 6, the notional value was 0, the risk fraction was 0.0224, the stress gap was 0.1, and the stress loss was 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLP&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
XLB 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = 3.7811589893965243
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:15
On September 17, 2026, the sector signal for XLB was adjusted. The adjustment was based on data from September 18, 2026, which was collected from exchange aggregates via Alpaca SIP/proxy, a system that provides financial data, and a primary feed, a source of financial information. The data included decimal returns from adjusted closes, which are the prices at the end of a trading day, and ATR, or Average True Range, simple 20 true ranges, a measure of price volatility over 20 days. The levels used the last close, which is the most recent price, and not the executable entry, the price at which a trade can be made. The data for XLB on September 17, 2026, included the following: symbol XLB, date September 17, 2026, 1331 bars, or trading periods, a close of 50.71, and various return rates, including r21 of -0.0206643491695635, r63 of -0.021609106694964297, r126 of 0.05448118111873557, and r252 of 0.1390386343216532. The average return was 0.03781158989396524, the simple moving average over 200 days was 50.144, and the average true range over 20 days was 0.7967749999999991. The high over 20 days was 54.19, and the stock was eligible for trading, with a p90, or 90th percentile, of 0.10256424393625274, and a p90_n, the number of days at or above the 90th percentile, of 1254. The gap minimum, the minimum price gap, was -0.0319924723594448, and the gap date, the date of the minimum price gap, was April 3, 2025. The stop, or stop-loss price, was 49.11645, and the target price was 55.91103281000737. The rank all, the overall ranking, was 5, and the rank eligible, the ranking among eligible stocks, was also 5. The notional, the total value of the trade, was 0, the risk fraction, the proportion of the portfolio at risk, was 0.031424768290278016, the stress gap, the potential loss due to a price gap, was 0.1, and the stress loss, the potential loss due to market stress, was 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLB&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
XLF 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = 5.353344596217588
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:15
A news scan found the following data: Measured on September 18, 2026, the exchange aggregates were taken from Alpaca SIP/proxy, which is a system that provides financial data, and a primary feed. The returns were calculated using the adjusted closing prices, shown as decimal values, and the Average True Range, which is a measure of price volatility, was calculated over a 20-day period. The levels were determined using the last closing price, not the price at which an order can be executed. The data for the XLF symbol on September 17, 2026, includes the following: 1331 bars of data, a closing price of 55.88, returns of -0.0339 over 21 days, 0.0375 over 63 days, 0.1510 over 126 days, and 0.0595 over 252 days. The average return was 0.0535, the simple moving average over 200 days was 53.43345, and the Average True Range over 20 days was 0.7201. The highest price over 20 days was 58.6, and the symbol was eligible for trading. The 90th percentile return was 0.1184, which occurred on 1254 occasions, the minimum gap was -0.0390, which occurred on April 3, 2025, and the stop loss was 54.43981. The target price was 62.49699, the rank among all symbols was 4, and the rank among eligible symbols was also 4. The notional value was 0, the risk fraction was 0.0258, the stress gap was 0.1, and the stress loss was 0. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLF&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
XLV 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = 13.276403573089393
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:15
On September 17, 2026, the XLV sector signal was adjusted. The measurement was taken on September 18, 2026, using exchange aggregates from Alpaca SIP/proxy as the primary feed. The returns were calculated from adjusted closes, and the Average True Range, or ATR, was calculated using simple 20-day true ranges. The levels were based on the last close, not the executable entry price. The data for XLV on September 17, 2026, included the following: 1331 bars, a close of 168.81, a 21-day return of -0.0054, a 63-day return of 0.125, a 126-day return of 0.157, and a 252-day return of 0.254. The average return was 0.133, and the simple moving average over 200 days was 155.10. The ATR over 20 days was 2.27, and the high over 20 days was 175.82. The stock was eligible, with a 90th percentile return of 0.106, and a notional value of 39.66. The risk fraction was 0.027, and the stress gap was 0.1, with a stress loss of 5.12. The stop price was 164.27, and the target price was 186.76. The rank among all stocks was 3, and the rank among eligible stocks was also 3. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLV&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
XLK 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = 19.528247004626625
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:15
On September 17, 2026, the XLK sector signal was adjusted. The measurement was taken on September 18, 2026, using exchange aggregates from Alpaca SIP/proxy, which is a system that provides financial data, and a primary feed, which is a main source of information. The returns were calculated using decimal values from adjusted closes, and the true ranges were calculated using a simple 20-day average true range, also known as ATR, which measures price volatility. The levels were determined using the last close price, not the executable entry price, which is the price at which a trade can be made. The data for XLK on September 17, 2026, included a close price of 188.06, and various return rates, such as 0.013145135222497606 for 21 days, 0.013363508998814444 for 63 days, 0.36641720555111545 for 126 days, and 0.3882040304126375 for 252 days. The average return was 0.19528247004626625, and the simple moving average for 200 days was 162.00065. The ATR for 20 days was 3.1324999999999976, and the highest price in the last 20 days was 189.08. The data also included a stop price of 181.79500000000002, a target price of 222.60612914891854, and a risk fraction of 0.03331383600978408, which is a measure of potential loss. The notional value, which is the total value of the trade, was 39.66, and the stress gap, which measures potential loss in extreme conditions, was 0.12518540492435482, with a stress loss of 6.318981591486373. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLK&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
XLE 2026-09-17 adjusted sector signal and proposed allocation = 20.010555084368885
Sector rotation2026-09-18 04:15
A news scan found the following data line: Measured Sep18 2026, exchange aggregates via Alpaca SIP/proxy, one primary feed, which is a system that collects and provides financial data. Decimal returns from adjusted closes, ATR, or Average True Range, simple20 true ranges, were used. Levels use last close, not executable entry. The data for the symbol XLE on the date 2026-09-17 is as follows: the number of bars is 1331, the close is 64.48, the 21-day return is 0.0126, the 63-day return is 0.1879, the 126-day return is 0.1187, and the 252-day return is 0.4813. The average return is 0.2001, the simple moving average for 200 days is 55.2166, the average true range for 20 days is 1.2882, and the high for 20 days is 66.17. The symbol is eligible, the 90th percentile return is 0.2065, and the number of days to reach this return is 1254. The minimum gap is -0.0579, which occurred on 2026-04-08, the stop loss is 61.9036, and the target is 77.7973. The rank among all symbols is 1, the rank among eligible symbols is 1, the notional value is 39.66, the risk fraction is 0.0399, the stress gap is 0.1159, and the stress loss is 6.1942. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=XLE&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all&start=2021-06-01&end=2026-09-18
T9180413 live ledger and collector receipt audit = 0
Supply chain2026-09-18 04:15
A review of the live ledger and collector receipt was conducted on September 18 at approximately 04:14 UTC. The supply consisted of 0 open trades, 0 pending trades, and 2 closed trades that were liquidated by the operator. There were 11 armed monitors, including a newly created one labeled 370, with no monitors due at 04:13; the previous review had counted 10 monitors before the creation of 370. Four jobs were active, labeled 18, 36, 214, and 265. Job 265 had 48 remaining, but its last run at, last output, and last exit code were null, indicating no remote execution receipt, although this does not necessarily mean the script failed. A check at 06:00 UTC on an existing system confirmed a receipt. The cash balance from the run context was 170.20. No other fund was modified during this time. runway:query_trades?fund=supply;runway:list_monitors?fund=supply;runway:list_jobs?fund=supply
T91804 ledger monitors and automation = 0
Supply chain2026-09-18 04:10
A news scan found the text: Own ledger has 0 open, 0 pending, and 2 closed operator-liquidation wins, with no loss sample for Kelly. The cash supplied is 170.20. There are 10 armed and 0 due, with 369, 102, 103, and 287 already done, which are not ours to resolve again. Jobs include 250 done on September 14 at 03:01 and 264 done on September 15 at 13:46, with 3 daily and 18, 36, and 214 active. The system was tested locally with 264 runs and fresh bars from September 17, with 7 out of 7 ending successfully. Replacement 265 was accepted for 48 hourly runs, with initial remote receipt pending. Other funds were not modified. runway:query_trades?fund=supply;runway:list_monitors?fund=supply;runway:list_jobs?fund=supply
TEN T91804 execution access and payoff calculations = 0.3145269584858252
Supply chain2026-09-18 04:10
At 04:09, the system took a fresh snapshot of the market data, but the subscription does not allow for recent data, so it used daily bars instead. On September 17, a Python program adjusted the trading parameters: the stop loss was set at 45.41, the target at 55.36, and a 1 basis point fee and 15 basis points slippage were applied to each side of the trade. The net result was 0.31452696, with a gross increase of 4.82863% and a decrease of 14.01250%. The system also calculated a 3R entry ceiling of 47.7444729. It assumed a 5% chance of a 30% gap, which replaced a conditional outcome of 1.44677836%, resulting in an expected outcome of -0.12556055933% per trade, although the odds were not measured. If the trade had been made with one share and a 30% gap, the loss would have been 15.843 USD, which is 1.86406% of the account balance of 849.92 USD. No order was placed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots
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