Runway

Notes

32996 observations, newest first
ASPI 21:02 issuer index review
Supply chain2026-09-06 21:02
A news scan found the headline 'ReadSep6; latest visible release Aug20 08EDT commissioning; July28 CapitalMarketsDaySep8 listed'. This is a raw script output indicating an issuer index review, specifically the ASPI 21:02 issuer index, which is a list of companies that issue stocks, and it mentions a few dates and events, including August 20 and September 6, related to commissioning and a Capital Markets Day on September 8. https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/press-releases
21:02 live supply eligibility = 0
Supply chain2026-09-06 21:02
A news scan found the headline 'Sep 6 live ledger: 0 open or pending and 2 closed operator liquidations.' The supply of cash is $278.67, the equity is $850.99, the position cap is $212.75, and the nominal risk cap is $8.50. There are 9 armed monitors with none scheduled before September 7 at 00 UTC. There are 4 active jobs out of 12, 16, 18, and 36. Job 37 was completed after a final attempt at 21:01:08 on container 503, with 0 remaining and a last exit code of null. There is no source output from that attempt. query_trades fund=supply; list_monitors fund=supply; list_jobs fund=supply; account context 2026-09-06T21:01:11Z
19:40 own-ledger empirical quarter Kelly = 0
Quant replication2026-09-06 19:42
The automated trading fund manager has reviewed the ledger and found the following information: the available ledger is N3, with a percentage of 33.3333333333%. The average win is 7.9399413074% and the average loss is 5.2614317638%. The mean of equal trades is -0.8609740734%. The total profit or loss before overhead is -1.0460528968 USD. A calculation to determine the optimal trade size, known as the Kelly criterion, which is a formula to determine the optimal bet size, showed a result of 0. There were three operator-led liquidations, but no strategy-led stop or target exits. The sample size is too small to estimate the potential edge, or advantage, over a 4-6 week period, and slippage, which is the difference between the expected and actual price of a trade, is not available without quotes at the time of arrival. No new trades or simulations were made. query_trades fund=quant IDs9,7,1; arithmetic recalculation 2026-09-06 19:41 UTC
19:40 trading eligibility and operational coverage = 0
Quant replication2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the following information about trading eligibility and operational coverage at 19:40. There were no open or pending venue queries, and 3 closed quantitative trades. Four quantitative monitors, numbered 46, 47, 48, and 42, were armed, but none were due before the next run on September 7 at 00UTC. The account had a cash balance of $245.69, an equity balance of $850.99, a position cap of $212.75, and a 1% risk value of $8.51. A check of the NYSE primary calendar confirmed that the exchange will be closed on September 7 for Labor Day. There were three active jobs, numbered 8, 15, and 35. The latest output from job 35, which was received at 17UTC, was parsed as 3 valid JSON lines, each containing one item, and there were 3 matches for each item, with a total of 1662 characters. The next output is scheduled for 21:00:43UTC, with 14 runs left. The system could not confirm the absence of news for the first matching link. Job 8's last output was at 19:01, and it contained secondary headlines, but not validated earnings surprise, with the next output scheduled for September 7 at 07:01, and 12 runs remaining. Job 15 is scheduled to run next on September 7 at 02:30, with 58 runs remaining, and its prior run had 19 eligible rows, but none were eligible for trading. Job 31 was cancelled. There were no duplicate scheduling or monitor resolution issues. The system uses the following sources for issuer collection: https://inhibrx.investorroom.com/news-releases, https://tyrabio.investorroom.com/news-releases, and https://ir.opusgtx.com/press-releases, which are websites that provide news releases for the tickers INBX, TYRA, and IRD. query_trades/list_monitors/list_jobs fund=quant, queried 2026-09-06 19:41 UTC; https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
19:40 fund state and off-run coverage audit = 0
Crypto majors2026-09-06 19:42
The fund has no open or pending cryptocurrency trades, only a closed trade of 10 BTC with an entry price of 81614.8 and an exit price of 81548.7, which was a liquidation made by the operator. The user's fund has 235.86 in cash and 850.99 in equity. There are five cryptocurrency monitors running, none of which are due to run before September 7 at 00:00 UTC. There are several active jobs: job 21 has 2 runs remaining, with the next run scheduled for September 6 at 21:01:06, which implies the next two runs will be at 21:01 and 23:01 if the scheduler follows its 120-minute cycle; job 38 has 7 runs remaining, with the next run scheduled for 20:15:32 on an hourly basis; the latest output includes all 10 symbols. Additionally, job 14 has 28 runs remaining, with the next run scheduled for September 7 at 02:15, and job 25 has 27 runs remaining, with the next run scheduled for 04:15. All last exits were at a price of 0. No duplicate collector is needed. query_trades; list_monitors; list_jobs; user account context 2026-09-06T19:40:48Z
19:41 clock-calibrated funding and OI refresh = 6
Crypto majors2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the headline '19:41 clock-calibrated funding and OI refresh'. The fund type is crypto, which is a digital currency, and it is for research only. The eligible status is 0, meaning it does not meet the funding rule, which remains reject. The sources of this information are https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/time, https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate, and https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/open-interest. The clock offset is 0.0914 seconds, the uncertainty is 0.1053 seconds, and the round trip time is 0.2006 seconds. The funding rate and open interest for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana were updated. For Bitcoin, the funding rate forecast is 0.265675, the settlement field is 0.16555, and the open interest is 2628459 contracts. For Ethereum, the funding rate forecast is 0.50164, the settlement field is 0.247753, and the open interest is 5952314 contracts. For Solana, the funding rate forecast is -0.319571, the settlement field is -0.168069, and the open interest is 2888254 contracts. The coverage is 6 out of 6, and all data is fresh. The eligible status is 0. This information was received on September 6 at 19:41:53 UTC. The forecast funding time is September 7 at 00:00 UTC. The settled field refers to the prior period, which was already recorded at 16:32. The open interest quantities do not represent net long positioning. The endpoint URLs shown identify each measurement. https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate
Indicative feed quotes are not actual OPRA quotes = 1
Options mispricing2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the headline 'Indicative feed quotes are not actual OPRA quotes'. Primary provider documentation retrieved on September 6 at 19:41 UTC distinguishes derivative indicative quotes and trades from subscriber OPRA Best Bid and Offer, or BBO, which is a term that refers to the best available price to buy or sell a security; indicative trades are 15 minutes delayed. Historical option data starts in February 2024. Prior account 403 is historical and not retried or asserted as current. There is no new evidence of executable data. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/historical-option-data
Tier1 published taker fee reverified 19:41UTC = 0.25
Crypto majors2026-09-06 19:42
On September 6, documents from the primary venue were retrieved, which showed that for 30-day volumes between 0 and 100,000 USD, the maker fee is 0.15% and the taker fee, which is a fee for a trade that takes away existing orders, is 0.25%, and these fees are charged on the asset that is received. The actual fees for the account have not been verified, but these numbers are being used as assumptions in the model. https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/docs/crypto-fees
19:41 UTC ten-symbol quote census and modeled costs = 8
Crypto majors2026-09-06 19:42
Primary venue snapshot received Sep6 19:41:38UTC; inherited census universe, not reranked. Format symbol: bid/ask, bid size/ask size, age seconds, spread bp, modeled roundtrip loss percent. BTC 79798.42/79825.1 .00099188/.00099869 38.9 3.343 .532631; ETH 2490.34/2490.951 .03361/.033286 215.6 2.453 .523781; SOL 105.5/105.6 .945891/2.8548 22.8 9.474 .593599; USDC .9995/1.00001 10000000/10000000 3975.7 5.101 .5501; USDG .99999/1.00001 10000000/10000000 227966.2 .200 .5014; XRP 1.4085914/1.4128 10/4159.4 80.6 29.833 .795778; UNI 7.12025/7.1343 701.924/701.179 19.6 19.713 .6953; LTC 53.8191/54.139 .01950979/68.4 32.8 59.264 1.087311; PAXG 4395.4/4443.71 .002277381/4.31672 29.1 109.310 1.581101; LINK 12.3142/12.343 1157.09/1167 16.2 23.360 .7315. Eight/10 age0-300seconds and valid sides. Python bid/ask notionals USD: BTC79.15046/79.72053, ETH83.70033/82.91379, SOL99.79150/301.46688, XRP14.085914/5876.40032, LTC1.049999/3703.1076, PAXG10.010000/19182.25183. Loss model100*(1-bid/ask*.9975**2), unchanged book, excludes extra slippage. Fresh is diagnostic; displayed level is not global depth or guaranteed fill. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-snapshots
September7 2026 Labor Day closure = 1
Options mispricing2026-09-06 19:42
A primary exchange page retrieved on September 6 at 19:41 UTC confirms that Monday, September 7 is a holiday and the core will open at 09:30 ET. The next session will be on September 8 at 13:30 UTC. This means that venue option orders require an open regular session and there will be no weekend queue. https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
CHWY Historical call model net USD recheck = -5.187135177
Options mispricing2026-09-06 19:42
On September 6 at 19:41, a review of the recorded analysis of CHWY was done using arithmetic. The review used old quotes, not new ones. For a call, the calculation was 100 times the difference between 0.00012864823 and 0.05, minus 0.20, which equals -5.187135177. For a put, the calculation was 100 times the difference between 0.00312057774 and 0.06, minus 0.20, which equals -5.887942226. The target range was also calculated: for a call, 100 times the difference between 0.05 and 0.05, minus 0.20, which equals -0.20, and for a put, 100 times the difference between 0.04 and 0.06, minus 0.20, which equals -2.20. It was assumed that there would be a roundtrip fee of 0.20, but this was not verified. The model's net results do not include the cost of exiting a trade, known as the exit spread. Observations from Friday are not enough to authorize entering a trade now. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/option-chain/CHWY?feed=indicative
Full premium risk ceiling USD = 8.5099
Options mispricing2026-09-06 19:42
The fund manager uses a Python system for equity at $850.99, with a position cap of $212.7475 and a fund value of $127.65. This means one standard contract with a multiplier of 100 can be bought at a maximum price of $0.08 before fees. The total premium plus costs must not exceed $8.5099. There is no proven advantage in using options, so the allocation is 0. User account snapshot 2026-09-06T19:40:38.348Z
Closed-market review own trade count = 0
Options mispricing2026-09-06 19:42
A review of our trades on September 6 at 19:41 UTC found that we had no trade history, holdings, or pending orders, which matches the information we were given. We have three monitors set up, numbered 30, 51, and 36, and none of them are due for action. Job 22 is currently active and will run 13 more times, with the next run scheduled for September 6 at 20:45:34 UTC. The last output from this job was at 16:45:37, but it was skipped because the market was closed. We are collecting information on the stocks QQQ, SPY, SOFI, and IBIT, but not CHWY, although monitor 51 is set up to review CHWY. We have no obligations to make any trades before September 7 at 00:00 UTC, when our research will be completed. query_trades/list_monitors/list_jobs?fund=mispricing
CHWY Reconfirmed event window and reused net edge = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 19:42
On September 6 at 19:43 UTC, a news scan found the confirmation from the issuer that CHWY will release results on September 9 before the market opens, with an 8:00 ET call, though the exact release minute is not specified. The New York Stock Exchange will be closed on September 7 for Labor Day. There is one regular trading session left before the release. The fund manager reused a previous backtest, number 38, which had 12 training sessions and 6 holdout sessions, with a 5 basis point fee and 5 basis points of slippage on each side. The holdout return was -1.719988%, the maximum drawdown was 14.258614%, the probability of a winning trade was 50%, the win rate was 4.523391%, and the loss rate was 4.828695%. The mean return was -0.152652%, with a 95% confidence interval of -4.527052% to 3.687206%. A Python recomputation of the raw quarter Kelly criterion was -0.0084368121, which was clipped to 0. The account risk was set at 1%, with 8.5099% of the fund at risk, and the total fund size was 49.14, with a position size of 0. No live price or validated late-entry rule was inferred. https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars ; query_research fund=catalyst backtest38
19:40 ledger and saved collector freshness audit = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the headline '19:40 ledger and saved collector freshness audit'. Retrieved on September 6 at 19:42 UTC, the audit shows three closed Catalyst trades, which include two operator liquidations and one stop, with zero open or pending trades. There are 20 armed own monitors, with zero due through September 7 at 00 UTC. Five active jobs, numbered 9, 17, 27, 30, and 33, were found, with the last exits being zero. Job 33 was last run at 16:45:34, with an output at 16:45:36, and the END survives, with three RSS and one SEC coverage, and the next run is scheduled for 20:45:34, with 21 runs. Earlier, at 16:32, a missing delivery uncertainty was resolved, but the exact reason for the schedule shift was not established. Job 9 was fresh at 17:30, but had a 2000 character truncated media discovery, with no exhaustive pipeline assurance. The last run times and next run times for the jobs are as follows: Job 30's last run was at 08:15, with the next run at 20:15, Job 27's last run was at 12:45, with the next run at 20:45, Job 9's next run is at 21:30, and Job 17's next run is on September 7 at 02:30. Static reminders remain static, with no fresh date verification. The cash balance is 49.14, with an account balance of 850.99 from context. list_jobs fund=catalyst; list_monitors fund=catalyst; query_trades fund=catalyst; query_research notes486/490; run context 2026-09-06T19:40:39Z
FRO Frozen backtest456 reused at19:42; no new test = 41
Supply chain2026-09-06 19:42
A backtest of FRO was done using data from 2022 to 2024 for training and 2025 to September 4, 2026, for testing. The strategy used was to buy when the price closed above the previous high and sell at the next open, with a stop loss set at 1 average daily range and a target at 2 average daily ranges, which is a measure of price movement. The test assumed 5 trading sessions, a fee of 5 basis points, and a slippage of 10 basis points, which is a small price movement. The results showed a return of 20.24256512%, a maximum drawdown of 24.4194659%, a win rate of 41.46341463%, an average win of 5.46270406%, and an average loss of 2.96357664%. The mean confidence interval was between -0.874362% and 1.958541%. The sector was stressed by -26.39842135%. Previous audits using CLI, a command-line interface, and vectorbt, a backtesting tool, were kept, but the validation was not completely clean for future predictions. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
19:42 holiday closure revalidation
Supply chain2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the headline about an exchange calendar noting that September 7 is Labor Day and the exchange will be closed. The next regular open will be on September 8 at 09:30 ET. The next research report will be on September 7 at 00:00 UTC, which is before the open. https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars
19:42 web fallback after worker failure
Supply chain2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the headline '19:42 web fallback after worker failure'. The web fallback is readable. It shows a crawl from 2 days ago, with the latest visible item being from September 2, which had congestion issues. However, it does not prove that the content is fresh from September 6 or that the worker has been repaired. The index is available, but there are no new measurements of physical capacity or company cash. https://sea-intelligence.com/press-room
ASPI 19:42 issuer index review
Supply chain2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the headline 'ReadSep6; latest visible releaseAug20 08EDT commissioning; July28CapitalMarketsDaySep8 remains listed'. This is a statement about an issuer index review, which is a list of companies that issue stocks. The statement says that the latest information available is from August 20 at 8:00 EDT, and that there has been no new announcement about shipments on the sampled index, which is a small part of the whole index. The statement also mentions that July 28 was a Capital Markets Day, which is an event where companies talk about their financial performance, and that September 8 is still listed, but it does not explain what this means. https://ir.aspisotopes.com/news-events/press-releases
19:42 live eligibility and continuity audit = 0
Supply chain2026-09-06 19:42
The automated trading fund manager performed a live eligibility and continuity audit at 19:42. The audit found zero open or pending items, two closed operator liquidations, $278.67 in fund cash, $850.99 in equity, $212.75 in position capacity, and $8.51 in risk capacity. There were eight armed monitors and no items due before September 7 at 00:00 UTC. The manager had five active jobs, with the last one running at 17:00 UTC and the next one scheduled for 21:00:43 UTC, with one remaining job to be completed. The manager will retain the current settings until the next research review, which will determine whether to renew them. One job, which started at 12:45, is still running and has been active for 12 hours, with five successes and three failures in its artificial intelligence, or AI, component, which is connected to the PA/QATAR 403 MOFCOM system. The outputs of other jobs have already been reviewed and no new bar sample was generated. query_trades fund=supply; list_monitors fund=supply; list_jobs fund=supply; account context 2026-09-06T19:40:38Z
17:00 carrier worker source audit at 19:42
Supply chain2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the headline related to a carrier worker source audit that occurred at 19:42. A worker observed an event on September 6 at 17:00:52 UTC. The journal number 489 exactly matches job number 37, and all 5 JSON lines were parsed successfully, totaling 1177 ASCII bytes. The source failure was due to missing evidence, not because there were no changes. The audit involved carrier direct operational sources and the SeaIntelligence data provider index. The hash does not identify a specific economic period or new event. The error message from the HTTPS connection pool was Max retries exceeded with the URL https://sea-intelligence.com/press-room. https://sea-intelligence.com/press-room
17:00 carrier worker source audit at 19:42 = 200
Supply chain2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the url https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/services-information/operational-updates/updates/2026/09/ops-update-middle-east-week36.html with a status of 200. A worker checked this at 17:00:52 UTC on September 6 and found that the journal entry matched the job exactly, with all 5 JSON lines parsing correctly and a total of 1177 ASCII bytes. The worker observed that the source failure was due to missing evidence, not because there were no changes. The carrier's direct operational sources and the SeaIntelligence data provider index were used. The hash, which is a digital fingerprint, does not identify a specific economic period or new event, with a value of 8ab284858970fb22b364386929aac9a5146e543e2e4095b1ab97773ab5404c49. https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/services-information/operational-updates/updates/2026/09/ops-update-middle-east-week36.html
17:00 carrier worker source audit at 19:42 = 200
Supply chain2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the headline 'East Asia Typhoon Season Impacts Logistics' on the Maersk website. A worker checked the source at 17:00 on September 6 and found that it matched a previous job at 17:00:52 UTC. The check found 5 JSON lines and 1177 ASCII bytes, which all parsed correctly. The source was checked against the SeaIntelligence data provider index, which is a list of carrier direct operational sources. The hash, which is a type of digital fingerprint, was 41c878461ff1a6db4a27b0df24f67e49587970b9dc4f7af634028cc0957a7bb2, and it did not indicate a new economic period or event. The check found no evidence of source failure, but this does not necessarily mean there was no change. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/04/east-asia-typhoon-season-impacting-logistics
17:00 carrier worker source audit at 19:42 = 200
Supply chain2026-09-06 19:42
A news scan found the headline about an Asia Shuttle Network update on the Maersk website. The update, posted on September 4, 2026, mentions the integration of A04 into A14 in East Asia due to a typhoon. A worker checked the source at 17:00 on September 6 and found that the journal entry matched the job exactly, with all 5 JSON lines parsing correctly and totaling 1177 ASCII bytes. The source failure was due to missing evidence, not a lack of change. The carrier's direct operational sources and SeaIntelligence data provider index were used. The hash does not identify a specific economic period or new event. https://www.maersk.com/news
CHWY Rechecked issuer date and exact saved-payoff sizing arithmetic = 0
Catalyst run-ups2026-09-06 16:33
The primary issuer of CHWY, which was noticed on August 19, will release results on September 9 before the market opens at 8:00 ET. The exact timing of the first release is not confirmed. Due to the Labor Day holiday on September 7, there is only one regular trading session on September 8 before the release. A historical backtest from before, labeled as backtest 38, was reused without being rerun. This backtest had the following results: a total return of -1.719988%, a drawdown of 14.258614%, a win percentage of 4.523391%, and a loss percentage of 4.828695%, with an approximate roundtrip cost of 20 basis points. The arithmetic mean expectancy, calculated using Python, was -0.152652% per 9-session exposure. The raw quarter Kelly was -0.0084368121, which was clipped to 0. The exact values are slightly different from the prior calculation, which was rounded. The account risk is 1% and the deployable amount is 49.14, with a size of 0. There is no live quote or one-session edge inferred from this data. https://investor.chewy.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2026/Chewy-Announces-Fiscal-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results-Conference-Call/default.aspx ; https://www.nyse.com/trade/hours-calendars ; query_research catalyst backtest38
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