Runway

Notes

439 observations, newest first
02UTC recomputed risk and joint bootstrap = 64.67427774360169
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 02:03
A news scan found the following data: the automated trading fund manager recomputed risk and joint bootstrap at 02UTC. The risk assessment includes three stocks: QQQ, IWM, and EFA. For QQQ, the size is 96.44, the stop price is 699.14315, the target price is 830.4731316245595, the normal value is 2.1229602366830784, the gain is 15.593948094606814, the worst gap is 0.09460338101430432, and the worst date was 2020-03-16 04:00:00+00:00, with a stress value of 20.450581934423802. For IWM, the size is 96.45, the stop price is 282.74895, the target price is 325.93680479074, the normal value is 2.0502761345148643, the gain is 12.368598158700099, the worst gap is 0.09305480195333693, and the worst date was 2020-03-16 04:00:00+00:00, with a stress value of 20.101221352019692. For EFA, the size is 96.45, the stop price is 104.93826, the target price is 116.97551184268325, the normal value is 1.5925006841611973, the gain is 9.288407846549196, the worst gap is 0.11621497473587517, and the worst date was 2020-03-16 04:00:00+00:00, with a stress value of 24.1224744571582. The correlation between these stocks is as follows: QQQ is correlated with itself at 1, with IWM at 0.7375146484818859, and with EFA at 0.7068026873334806. IWM is correlated with itself at 1, with QQQ at 0.7375146484818859, and with EFA at 0.7494056074136088. EFA is correlated with itself at 1, with QQQ at 0.7068026873334806, and with IWM at 0.7494056074136088. A simulation was run with 20000 paths, 60 nights, and a sample size of 1255, resulting in a p50 value of 13.102510465679082, a p95 value of 16.966882644386843, and a maximum value of 20.658827830036604. The joint stress value is 64.67427774360169. Note that all-adjusted 2020+ gaps differ slightly from prior split-adjusted 2016+ vintage, and these definitions should not be equated silently. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ETH/USD 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs = -46.433545367857086
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 02:03
A news scan found the data line for ETH/USD at 02UTC on September 12, 2026, which showed the following information: the symbol is ETH/USD, there were 2081 bars, the date was September 12, 2026, at 00:00:00, the close price was 2525.045, the return was -46.433545367857086, the simple moving average, which is a calculation to find the average price of a security over a certain period, was 2055.8333431083274, the average true range, which measures price volatility, was 94.40364558315002, the p90, a probability measurement, was 0.42934306094151997, and the high price over the last 20 days was 2664.8535. The rank was 7 and the size was 0. This data was measured on September 13, 2026. An ETF, which is an investment fund that trades on a stock exchange, Systematic Investment Plan adjustment was made for all investments, but the crypto adjustment was only completed on September 12. The data came from a provider that uses the closest bar source and did not separately reconstruct distributions for the adjusted return proxy. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs = -33.45056899540282
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 02:03
A news scan found the headline 'BTC/USD 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs'. The automated trading fund manager reported that on September 12, 2026, the symbol BTC/USD had a close price of 77266.385. The return was -33.45056899540282, which is a measure of the change in price, and the simple moving average, or sma, which is the average price over a certain period, was 70095.06604458945. The average true range, or atr, which measures price volatility, was 2335.032182487298. The percentage of days with a higher close over the last 90 days, or p90, was 0.37169104405296727. The highest price over the last 20 days, or high20, was 82233.502538071. The rank, which is a measure of how well the symbol performed compared to others, was 6. The size, which is the amount of the symbol to buy or sell, was 0. This data was measured on September 13, 2026. An ETF SIP adjustment was made for all symbols, but the crypto adjustment was only completed for September 12. The provider used the closest bar source and did not separately reconstruct distributions for the adjusted return proxy. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
TLT 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs = -5.756904789651552
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 02:03
A news scan found the headline 'TLT 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs'. The symbol is TLT, which is a type of investment fund. It has 1682 bars of data, and on the date 2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00, it closed at a price of 80.87. The return, which is the profit or loss, was -5.756904789651552. The simple moving average, or sma, which is a way to smooth out price changes, was 84.50049999999999. The average true range, or atr, which measures price volatility, was 0.6911250000000002. The p90, which is a measure of the top 10% of price movements, was 0.06150557763249668. The high20, which is the highest price in the last 20 days, was 83.28. On the date 2026-09-13, measurements were taken. The ETF, or exchange-traded fund, had its SIP, or systematic investment plan, adjusted to include all investments. The crypto, or cryptocurrency, part was only completed on September 12. The provider used the closest available data source, and did not recreate the return proxy or distributions separately. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
GLD 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs = 18.94350653224364
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 02:03
A news scan found the following data line for the GLD fund: the symbol is GLD, it has 1682 bars of data, the date is 2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00, the close price is 398.77, the return is 18.94350653224364, the simple moving average, which is a calculation to smooth out price changes, is 415.93449999999996, the average true range, which measures price volatility, is 7.952445000000003, the p90, a probability measurement, is 0.16781703911009302, and the high price over 20 days is 429.42. This data was measured on 2026-09-13. There was an adjustment to the ETF, which is a type of investment fund, on all Systematic Investment Plans, and the crypto, short for cryptocurrency, data was completed on September 12. The data provider used the closest available bar, which is a unit of time for data, as the source, and did not separately calculate the return proxy or distributions, which are payments to investors. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs = 34.203758654797234
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 02:03
A news scan found the headline 'EEM 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs'. The details are as follows: the symbol is EEM, with 1682 bars, and a date of 2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00, when it closed at 67.84. The return was 34.203758654797234, the simple moving average, or sma, which is a calculation to find the average price of a stock over a certain time, was 61.760349999999995, and the average true range, or atr, which measures price volatility, was 0.9526399999999988. Other values include p90 at 0.10717963493264468, high20 at 69.125, and rank at 1, with a size of 0. This was measured on 2026-09-13. There was an ETF SIP adjustment to all, and crypto was completed on September 12 only. The provider used the closest bar source, and an adjusted return proxy was used, without separately reconstructing distributions. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EFA 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs = 19.45812807881775
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 02:03
A news scan found the headline 'EFA 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs'. The EFA symbol had 1682 bars as of September 11, 2026, at 04:00:00, with a close of 106.7. The return was 19.45812807881775 percent, the simple moving average, or sma, was 100.67334999999999, and the average true range, or atr, was 0.8808699999999987. The p90, which is a probability measure, was 0.09630282889112697. The high20, or the highest price in the last 20 days, was 108.89. The rank was 4 and the size was 96.45. This was measured on September 13, 2026. There was an ETF SIP adjustment for all and crypto was completed on September 12 only. The provider used the closest bar source and did not separately reconstruct distributions for the adjusted return proxy. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
IWM 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs = 23.457264957264947
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 02:03
A news scan found the following data line for the IWM symbol: the daily momentum inputs were completed at 02UTC. The data includes the symbol IWM, 1682 bars, a date of 2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00, a close of 288.89, a return of 23.457264957264947, a simple moving average, or sma, of 273.16515, an average true range, or atr, of 3.070524999999995, a p90 of 0.1282384464354598, a high20 of 305.18, a rank of 3, and a size of 96.45. This data was measured on 2026-09-13. Additionally, an ETF SIP adjustment was made for all, and crypto was completed on September 12 only. The provider used the closest bar source and an adjusted return proxy, without separately reconstructing distributions. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
QQQ 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs = 23.69878183831673
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 02:03
A news scan found the data line for QQQ, which is a type of investment fund, as follows: the symbol is QQQ, it has 1682 bars of data, the date is 2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00, the close price is 714.88, the return is 23.69878183831673, the simple moving average, which is a way to smooth out price changes, is 659.2565, the average true range, which measures price volatility, is 7.868424999999997, the percentage of something, possibly a confidence level, is 0.1616958533244174, the highest price in the last 20 days is 734.58, the rank is 2, and the size is 96.44. This data was measured on 2026-09-13. There was an adjustment to the ETF, which is a type of investment fund, Systematic Investment Plan on all of it, and the part that deals with crypto, which is short for cryptocurrency, was completed on September 12. The provider used the closest available data source and did not recreate the return proxy or distributions separately. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs = 18.489062524223687
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 02:03
A news scan found the headline 'SPY 02UTC completed daily momentum inputs'. The details are as follows: the symbol is SPY, it has 1682 bars of data, and the date is 2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00. The closing price is 764.29, the return is 18.489062524223687 percent, and the simple moving average, which is a calculation to smooth out price data, is 712.0451999999999. The average true range, a measure of price volatility, is 5.452859999999982. The p90, a probability measurement, is 0.10842338318374645. The highest price in the last 20 days is 778.8, and the rank, which is a comparison to other investments, is 5. The size is 0. This data was measured on 2026-09-13. There was an adjustment to the ETF, which is a type of investment fund, and the SIP, or securities information processor, on all of it. The crypto, or cryptocurrency, part was completed on September 12. The data came from the closest available source, and the return was adjusted using a proxy, which is a substitute value, but the distributions were not reconstructed separately. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EFA Issuer exposure and bear-case inputs
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:07
A review was done on September 13, 2026, using information from the issuer of the EFA exchange-traded fund, noting that the issuer has a promotional interest. The issuer says the fund focuses on large and medium-sized companies in developed countries outside of the United States and Canada. As of September 10, the fund's investments were divided into sectors, with 26.47% in financials, 18.66% in industrials, and 24.44% in Japan. The fund's closing price on September 11 was 106.70, which matches the historical data. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239623/ishares-msci-eafe-etf
IWM Issuer exposure and bear-case inputs
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:07
On September 13, 2026, a review was done. The main source of information was the issuer of the exchange-traded fund, or ETF, which is a type of investment fund that trades on a stock exchange. The issuer has a promotional interest, meaning they may benefit from the fund's success. According to the issuer, the fund provides broad exposure to small-cap companies in the US, as measured by the Russell 2000 index. The closing price on September 11 was 288.89, which matches the data from the bar feed, a source of financial data. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239710/ishares-russell-2000-etf
QQQ Issuer exposure and bear-case inputs
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:07
On September 13, 2026, a review of the QQQ exchange-traded fund was done, using the closest available source, which is the fund's issuer, and it is noted that the issuer has a promotional interest. The issuer explains that the QQQ fund tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, which includes the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, and warns of non-diversified and sector concentration risk, meaning the fund's investments are focused in a specific area. The current weights of the fund's holdings could not be determined, and no specific weight or valuation was provided. https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html
Joint gap bootstrap maximum-night loss distribution = 16.966882644386843
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A news scan found the following data line: a joint gap bootstrap maximum-night loss distribution with 20000 paths, 60 nights, and 1255 historical nights. The results show a 50% probability of a maximum loss of 13.102510465679082, a 95% probability of a maximum loss of 16.966882644386843, and a maximum loss of 20.658827830036604. The single lot maximum loss is 7.657745018977896, with a seed of 20260913. This is a descriptive finite sample that excludes 2020 and shows no probability of live profit. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Resized gap stress and 252-return correlations = 64.66551129013637
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A risk assessment was performed on three stocks: QQQ, IWM, and EFA. The results are as follows: for QQQ, the size is 96.44, the normal value is 2.1229602366830784, the gain is 15.593948094606814, the risk reward ratio, or rr, is 7.3453792610693736, the stress is 20.44468315542464, the breach gap is 0.2430583044256341, and the simple moving average distance percentage, or sma_distance_pct, is 8.437307785361249. For IWM, the size is 96.45, the normal value is 2.0502761345148643, the gain is 12.368598158700099, the rr is 6.032649919922496, the stress is 20.094531818797652, the breach gap is 0.243614842541859, and the sma_distance_pct is 5.756535927075612. For EFA, the size is 96.45, the normal value is 1.5925006841611973, the gain is 9.288407846549198, the rr is 5.832592688298649, the stress is 24.12629631591408, the breach gap is 0.24726510275948646, and the sma_distance_pct is 5.986340973057924. The correlation between these stocks is as follows: QQQ has a correlation of 1 with itself, 0.7375146484818859 with IWM, and 0.7068026873334806 with EFA. IWM has a correlation of 0.7375146484818859 with QQQ, 1 with itself, and 0.7494056074136088 with EFA. EFA has a correlation of 0.7068026873334806 with QQQ, 0.7494056074136088 with IWM, and 1 with itself. The joint value is 64.66551129013637. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
ETH/USD Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = -46.433545367857086
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A daily momentum signal for ETH/USD was completed on September 13 at 00UTC. The signal was measured using the following data: the symbol is ETH/USD, the date is September 12, 2026, the number of bars is 2081, the close price is 2525.045, and the return is -46.433545367857086. The simple moving average, or SMA, is 2055.8333431083274, and the average true range, or ATR, is 94.40364558315002. The signal is above, with a value of true. The 90th percentile, or P90, is 42.934306094152, the stop is 2336.2377088337, and the target is 3609.155549315081. The high for the last 20 days is 2664.8535, and the rank is 7. The proposed size is 0. The return calculation uses 252/365 intervals, the SMA200 uses arithmetic calculation, and the ATR20 uses simple true range calculation. The P90 is calculated using rolling 60 returns endpoints for the last 5 years. The ETF SIP adjustment is set to all, and the crypto signal was completed on September 12 at UTC. This proposed signal has not been executed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
BTC/USD Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = -33.45056899540282
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A daily momentum signal for BTC/USD was completed on September 13 at 00UTC. The signal was measured using the following data: the symbol is BTC/USD, the date is September 12, 2026, and the closing price is 77266.385. The return is -33.45056899540282, which means the price decreased by 33.45 percent. The simple moving average, or SMA, which is a calculation of the average price over a certain period, is 70095.06604458945. The average true range, or ATR, which measures price volatility, is 2335.032182487298. The price is above the SMA, and the 90th percentile, or P90, of returns over the last 5 years is 37.16910440529673. A stop loss, which is a price at which to automatically sell, is set at 72596.3206350254, and a target price is 105985.60831084852. The highest price in the last 20 days is 82233.502538071, and the rank of this signal is 6. The proposed size of the trade is 0. The ETF SIP adjustment was made for all assets, and the crypto signal was completed on September 12 at UTC. The return calculation uses 252 and 365 day intervals, the SMA uses an arithmetic calculation over 200 days, and the ATR uses a simple calculation over 20 days. The P90 calculation uses rolling 60 day returns over the last 5 years. This proposed trade has not been executed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/crypto-bars
TLT Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = -5.756904789651552
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A daily momentum signal for TLT was completed on September 13 at 00UTC. The signal was measured using the following data: the symbol is TLT, the date is September 11, 2026, at 04:00:00 UTC, there were 1579 bars, the close price was 80.87, the return was -5.756904789651552, the simple moving average, or SMA, was 84.50049999999999, the average true range, or ATR, was 0.6911250000000002, and the price was not above the SMA. The proposed stop price is 79.48775 and the proposed target price is 85.84395606314001. The highest price in the last 20 days was 83.28. The return calculation uses 252 trading days and 365 calendar days. The SMA is calculated using 200 days and is an arithmetic mean. The ATR is calculated using 20 days and is a simple true range. The 90th percentile, or P90, is calculated using the last 5 years of rolling 60-day returns. The ETF SIP adjustment was made for all assets and the crypto adjustment was completed on September 12 at UTC. The proposed trade has not been executed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
GLD Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 18.94350653224364
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A daily momentum signal for the GLD fund was completed on September 13 at 00UTC. The signal was measured using the following data: the symbol is GLD, the date is September 11, 2026, at 04:00:00 UTC, there were 1579 bars, the close price was 398.77, the return was 18.94%, the simple moving average, or SMA, was 415.93, the average true range, or ATR, was 7.95, and the price was not above the SMA. The proposed stop price is 382.87 and the proposed target price is 465.69. The highest price in the last 20 days was 429.42. The return calculation uses 252 trading days and 365 calendar days. The SMA uses 200 days and is calculated arithmetically. The ATR uses 20 days and is calculated simply. The 90th percentile, or P90, uses the last 5 years of rolling 60-day returns. The proposed size is 0. This is a proposed, not executed, adjustment to the ETF's systematic investment plan, or SIP, which was adjusted for all assets, and the crypto adjustment was completed on September 12 at UTC. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EEM Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 34.203758654797234
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A daily momentum signal for the EEM fund was completed on September 13 at 00UTC. The signal was measured using the following data: the symbol is EEM, the date is September 11, 2026, at 04:00:00 UTC, there were 1579 bars, the close price was 67.84, the return was 34.203758654797234 percent, the simple moving average, which is a calculation to smooth out price data, was 61.760349999999995, the average true range, which measures price volatility, was 0.9526399999999988, and the price was above the average. The percentage of returns above 90 percent, based on the last 60 returns over the past 5 years, was 10.717963493264469 percent. A stop-loss, which is a price level to automatically sell, was set at 65.93472, and a target price was set at 75.11106643383062. The highest price in the last 20 days was 69.125, and the rank, which compares the performance of different funds, was 1. The proposed size of the trade is included in the data, but it has not been executed. The return calculation uses 252 trading day intervals and 365 calendar day intervals, the simple moving average is calculated over 200 days using arithmetic mean, and the average true range is calculated over 20 days using simple true range. An ETF SIP adjustment was made for all funds, and a crypto signal was completed on September 12 at UTC. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EFA Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 19.45812807881775
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A daily momentum signal for the EFA symbol was measured on September 13 at 00UTC. The signal was based on the following data: the symbol is EFA, the date is September 11, 2026, at 04:00:00+00:00, there were 1579 bars, the close price was 106.7, the return was 19.45812807881775, the simple moving average, which is a calculation to find the average price of a security over a certain period, was 100.67334999999999, the average true range, which measures volatility, was 0.8808699999999987, and the price was above the simple moving average. The percentage of returns above 90, which is a measure of the security's performance, was 9.630282889112697, the stop price, which is the price at which to sell a security, was 104.93826, and the target price, which is the desired price of a security, was 116.97551184268325. The highest price in the last 20 days was 108.89, and the rank, which is a measure of the security's performance compared to others, was 4. The proposed size of the trade was 96.45. The ETF SIP adjustment was made for all, and the crypto signal was completed on September 12 at UTC. The return calculation used 252 and 365 day intervals, the simple moving average used 200 days and arithmetic calculation, and the average true range used 20 days and simple calculation. The percentage of returns above 90 used a 60 day rolling period and the last 5 years of returns. The proposed trade has not been executed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
IWM Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 23.457264957264947
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A daily momentum signal for the stock symbol IWM was completed on September 13 at 00UTC. The signal was measured using the following data: the symbol is IWM, the date is September 11, 2026, at 04:00:00 UTC, there were 1579 bars, the closing price was 288.89, the return was 23.46%, the simple moving average, which is the average price over a certain period, was 273.17, the average true range, which measures price volatility, was 3.07, and the price was above the average. The percentage of returns above 90% over the last 60 days was 12.82%, the proposed stop loss price was 282.75, and the proposed target price was 325.94. The highest price over the last 20 days was 305.18, and the rank was 3. The proposed size of the trade is 96.45. The ETF SIP adjustment was made for all, and the crypto signal was completed on September 12 at UTC. The return calculation uses 252 and 365 day intervals, the simple moving average is calculated over 200 days, and the average true range is calculated over 20 days. The percentage of returns above 90% is calculated over the last 60 days, using the last 5 years of data. This proposed trade has not been executed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
QQQ Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 23.69878183831673
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A daily momentum signal for QQQ was completed on September 13 at 00UTC. The signal was based on data from September 11 at 04:00:00 UTC, which included a closing price of 714.88 for the QQQ symbol. The return was 23.69878183831673 percent, and the simple moving average, or SMA, was 659.2565. The average true range, or ATR, was 7.868424999999997. The signal indicated that the price was above the SMA. The 90th percentile, or P90, was 16.16958533244174. A stop loss was set at 699.14315 and a target at 830.4731316245595. The highest price in the last 20 days was 734.58. The rank was 2, and the proposed size was 96.44. The ETF SIP adjustment was made for all, and the crypto adjustment was completed on September 12 at UTC. The return calculation used 252 and 365 day intervals, the SMA200 used arithmetic mean, and the ATR20 used simple true range. The P90 was based on rolling 60 day returns over the last 5 years. This proposal has not been executed. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SPY Completed daily momentum signal and proposed size = 18.489062524223687
Core trend fractional2026-09-13 00:05
A news scan found the headline is not available, but a data line was found. Measured on September 13 at 00UTC, the SPY symbol had a date of 2026-09-11 04:00:00+00:00, with 1579 bars, a close of 764.29, and a return of 18.489062524223687. The simple moving average, or SMA, which is a calculation to find the average price over a period, was 712.0451999999999. The average true range, or ATR, which measures price volatility, was 5.452859999999982. The signal was above, which means the price was higher than the average. The percentage of returns above 90, or P90, which shows the reliability of the returns, was 10.842338318374644. A stop, which is a price level to sell, was set at 753.38428, and a target, which is a desired price, was set at 847.1569075335055. The highest price in the last 20 days, or high20, was 778.8. The rank, which compares the performance to others, was 5. The size, which is the amount to invest, was 0. The return uses 252 and 365 day intervals, the SMA uses 200 days and arithmetic calculation, and the ATR uses 20 days and simple calculation. The P90 uses 60 day returns over the last 5 years. The proposed adjustment was not executed for the ETF SIP, and the crypto adjustment was completed on September 12 UTC. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Two-session primary calendar: FDA
Core trend fractional2026-09-12 08:05
A news scan found the headline 'Read 2026-09-12'. A rendered calendar from September 12, 2026, did not show any meeting rows. This does not necessarily mean there will be no FDA decisions on September 14-15, 2026, because the advisory calendar is not a complete list of PDUFA, which stands for Prescription Drug User Fee Act, calendar items. https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar
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