JBS Sep4 completed protein technical metrics = 13.03
{"c":13.03,"adr":0.4509,"prior":14.23,"sma":12.998200000000002,"signal":false,"return20":-8.43288826423051,"bars":309}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Notes
7310 observations, newest first
PPC Sep4 completed protein technical metrics = 30.48
{"c":30.48,"adr":1.1315250000000003,"prior":32.43,"sma":29.0449,"signal":false,"return20":11.038251366120221,"bars":1425}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TSN Sep4 completed protein technical metrics = 51.42
{"c":51.42,"adr":1.1131549999999997,"prior":58.07,"sma":57.11019999999999,"signal":false,"return20":-10.573913043478257,"bars":1425}
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
JBS Sep5 protein fixed-rule holdout_cost_stress = 2.686767357831421
{"sample":13,"win_rate":53.84615384615385,"avg_win":2.9231648153197503,"avg_loss":2.8633148088425706,"mean":0.2524819118602174,"return_pct":2.686767357831421,"drawdown":9.152716697530627,"ledger_error":0,"terminal_open":false,"quarter_kelly":0.7541328807191761,"mean_ci95":[-0.9332623225411288,1.4321292685543257],"sim_10pct_terminal_p5_p50_p95":[-1.0039827287626946,0.33301098260718476,1.64257467894301],"sim_loss_probability":0.3398,"sim_dd95":1.3597063437180812,"symbol":"JBS","split":"holdout_cost_stress"}; registerednote159; exactfees5bp/slippage10bp separately, stress10/20bp; JBS train missing not zero return. SIP adjusted; simulation conditional historicaltradecount not calendar forecast.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
JBS Sep5 protein fixed-rule holdout = 6.770677047240015
{"sample":13,"win_rate":53.84615384615385,"avg_win":3.232398469480618,"avg_loss":2.571466689241564,"mean":0.553691473147303,"return_pct":6.770677047240015,"drawdown":8.468627770348046,"ledger_error":0,"terminal_open":false,"quarter_kelly":1.6653366840245405,"mean_ci95":[-0.6432233357210598,1.752603975282024],"sim_10pct_terminal_p5_p50_p95":[-0.641770443356659,0.7155307950993173,2.0559863624969066],"sim_loss_probability":0.1909,"sim_dd95":1.1443585809228662,"symbol":"JBS","split":"holdout"}; registerednote159; exactfees5bp/slippage10bp separately, stress10/20bp; JBS train missing not zero return. SIP adjusted; simulation conditional historicaltradecount not calendar forecast.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
JBS Sep5 protein fixed-rule train
{"sample":0,"return":null,"drawdown":null,"symbol":"JBS","split":"train"}; registerednote159; exactfees5bp/slippage10bp separately, stress10/20bp; JBS train missing not zero return. SIP adjusted; simulation conditional historicaltradecount not calendar forecast.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
PPC Sep5 protein fixed-rule holdout_cost_stress = -13.55393132164221
{"sample":20,"win_rate":40,"avg_win":2.3535585245587494,"avg_loss":2.707619268263704,"mean":-0.6831481511347226,"return_pct":-13.55393132164221,"drawdown":18.695628703234966,"ledger_error":0,"terminal_open":false,"quarter_kelly":0,"mean_ci95":[-1.8416938895526094,0.45223339420111375],"sim_10pct_terminal_p5_p50_p95":[-3.294684004485899,-1.3505423558661689,0.5487639299157019],"sim_loss_probability":0.879,"sim_dd95":3.553732833026853,"symbol":"PPC","split":"holdout_cost_stress"}; registerednote159; exactfees5bp/slippage10bp separately, stress10/20bp; JBS train missing not zero return. SIP adjusted; simulation conditional historicaltradecount not calendar forecast.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
PPC Sep5 protein fixed-rule holdout = -8.208395334008035
{"sample":20,"win_rate":40,"avg_win":2.661080791054435,"avg_loss":2.4153033598900158,"mean":-0.3847496995122357,"return_pct":-8.208395334008035,"drawdown":14.31294624623587,"ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12,"terminal_open":false,"quarter_kelly":0,"mean_ci95":[-1.554696305789789,0.7229615635740225],"sim_10pct_terminal_p5_p50_p95":[-2.7090997171636313,-0.7710737716710214,1.1000956455690192],"sim_loss_probability":0.7455,"sim_dd95":3.0379919269721323,"symbol":"PPC","split":"holdout"}; registerednote159; exactfees5bp/slippage10bp separately, stress10/20bp; JBS train missing not zero return. SIP adjusted; simulation conditional historicaltradecount not calendar forecast.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
PPC Sep5 protein fixed-rule train = 8.656860249994413
{"sample":49,"win_rate":44.89795918367347,"avg_win":3.531573305289515,"avg_loss":2.468873556298772,"mean":0.22520462645515277,"return_pct":8.656860249994413,"drawdown":11.955730885500282,"ledger_error":0,"terminal_open":false,"quarter_kelly":0.645728928856625,"mean_ci95":[-0.5413776813211573,1.0192946995775423],"sim_10pct_terminal_p5_p50_p95":[-2.0599156497595335,1.0914709701894898,4.407691729175801],"sim_loss_probability":0.2952,"sim_dd95":3.369974048704612,"symbol":"PPC","split":"train"}; registerednote159; exactfees5bp/slippage10bp separately, stress10/20bp; JBS train missing not zero return. SIP adjusted; simulation conditional historicaltradecount not calendar forecast.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TSN Sep5 protein fixed-rule holdout_cost_stress = -16.76652287195096
{"sample":19,"win_rate":31.57894736842105,"avg_win":1.716769915595114,"avg_loss":2.1673514959679268,"mean":-0.9407868396848613,"return_pct":-16.76652287195096,"drawdown":17.409558741477383,"ledger_error":1.8189894035458565e-12,"terminal_open":false,"quarter_kelly":0,"mean_ci95":[-1.7435034004212127,-0.039487402118464986],"sim_10pct_terminal_p5_p50_p95":[-3.0381667989661265,-1.7915594235502486,-0.37134122352559135],"sim_loss_probability":0.9791,"sim_dd95":3.115854309021805,"symbol":"TSN","split":"holdout_cost_stress"}; registerednote159; exactfees5bp/slippage10bp separately, stress10/20bp; JBS train missing not zero return. SIP adjusted; simulation conditional historicaltradecount not calendar forecast.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TSN Sep5 protein fixed-rule holdout = -11.884387029416265
{"sample":19,"win_rate":31.57894736842105,"avg_win":2.0223789444942852,"avg_loss":1.873412347794401,"mean":-0.6431624660190263,"return_pct":-11.884387029416265,"drawdown":13.088180140396254,"ledger_error":0,"terminal_open":false,"quarter_kelly":0,"mean_ci95":[-1.46537574053732,0.2682590977009889],"sim_10pct_terminal_p5_p50_p95":[-2.5303451858870156,-1.2427592320073677,0.2204175690666046],"sim_loss_probability":0.9252,"sim_dd95":2.6266788721494767,"symbol":"TSN","split":"holdout"}; registerednote159; exactfees5bp/slippage10bp separately, stress10/20bp; JBS train missing not zero return. SIP adjusted; simulation conditional historicaltradecount not calendar forecast.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TSN Sep5 protein fixed-rule train = -3.8507938441911804
{"sample":41,"win_rate":41.46341463414634,"avg_win":2.3869291234468824,"avg_loss":1.810409785441289,"mean":-0.07004975004863263,"return_pct":-3.8507938441911804,"drawdown":10.894910505937494,"ledger_error":0,"terminal_open":false,"quarter_kelly":0,"mean_ci95":[-0.5595829022696269,0.44864809716831844],"sim_10pct_terminal_p5_p50_p95":[-1.9642285715242436,-0.2950943986722354,1.4818210492990287],"sim_loss_probability":0.6145,"sim_dd95":2.452559662798749,"symbol":"TSN","split":"train"}; registerednote159; exactfees5bp/slippage10bp separately, stress10/20bp; JBS train missing not zero return. SIP adjusted; simulation conditional historicaltradecount not calendar forecast.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
JBS Illustrative valuation and cash bridge = 16.2875
Sep4price13.03/(4*.20Q2adjustedEPS)=16.2875x, notnormalized. H1OCFafterinterest62.8m minusPP&E1178.9m=-1116.1m; beforeacquisitions/otherinvestment/financing, notcompanydefinedFCF. NegativeGAAPEPS anddebt preventpureexport-rentmultiple.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1791942/000121390026087444/ea030137401ex99-1.htm ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
PPC Illustrative quarter annualization = 11.90625
Sep4price30.48/(4*.64Q2adjustedEPS)=11.90625x; mislabeledPPC_Q3annual inlocalderived.json meansQ2annualization, noQ3resultsused. Notnormalizedvaluation.
https://pilgrimspridecorporation.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/pilgrims-pride-reports-second-quarter-2026-results ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
TSN Derived fundamental sensitivities = 12.98484848
Sep5Python: sales5391/5603-1=-3.7837%; reported12.1-15.9=-3.8ppbridge; naiveproduct(1-.159)*(1+.121)-1=-5.7239% failsreconciliation,sodonotinterpretissuercontributionsasindependentmultiplicativechanges. Sep4price51.42/(4*.99adjEPS)=12.9848x,vs24.7212xGAAPquarterannualization; notnormalizedPE. Netdebt1427+6579-740=7266m.
https://www.tysonfoods.com/sites/default/files/2026-08/TSN%202026%20Q3%20Earnings%20Release%20FINAL.pdf ; https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
Derived quote and physical throughput scales = 23333.333333
PythonSep5:100000mt/30*7=23333.33mtweeklyequivalent,60.94%of38291mtallfreshbeefoneweekbaseline, NOTexpectedincrement orsameproductbasket. .25/3.28=7.622% assessedFCAdecline, not25%. Quota/productweight mustnotbedividedunadjustedbyERSCWEforecast toclaimmarketshare. Noestimatedcausalpolicyimpact.
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswimpe.pdf ; https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/08/further-ensuring-affordable-beef-for-the-american-consumer/ ; https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/090126-brazil-origin-beef-offer-levels-into-us-drop-at-start-of-tariff-free-period
Prequota physical import baseline = 38291
USDAAMS publishedSep4 forAug23–29,week35,metricton productweight. FreshBeef weekly38291,YTD1299517vs1140566; Brazil5849,YTD229294vs193799; Argentina1559,YTD67078vs25825. Topallmeat total57520 isNOTbeef. DoesnotcoverSep1quota, notcustomsquota-utilizationorERS carcass-equivalent data. PDFtable extraction alignment needs verification before subproduct use; only totalcolumns used.
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswimpe.pdf
CBP operational notice; underlying page403
CBPAug31 10:56ET: bulletin26-230; Sep1opening,entriesbefore08:30ET assigned08:30; prorationifoversubscribed. Officialoperationalnotice, not actualquota-fill data. Linkedcbp.gov/trade/quota/bulletins/qb-26-230-2026 returned403. Confirmed implementationnotice but fill/contractallocationsunobserved.
https://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCBP-427b02d?wgt_ref=USDHSCBP_WIDGET_2
JBS PPC accounting reconciliation = 360
Q2 2026 reconciliation:502.9 IFRS EBITDA -20.5 leases -123.1 biologicalasset adjustments +.7 other =360.0 USGAAPmUSD, matchesPPC. No contradiction or extraindependentconfirmation; sameunderlyingbusiness.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1791942/000121390026087444/ea030137401ex99-1.htm
PPC 10K supplier risks and controlled ownership
FiledFeb12 2026 FY2025: feed/chicken/pork commoditycycles, disease/culling/traderestrictions, buyercompetition; JBSUSA ownsmajorityandcontrols mostvotes. PPC andJBS are notindependent economicexposures orsources forPPCoperations.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/802481/000080248126000011/ppc-20251228.htm
PPC Q2 earnings and input cyclicality = 360
IssuerJuly29 Q2: adjEBITDA360m,margin7.8% vs14.4%yearago; US8.7%,Europe7.6%,Mexico3.9%;GAAP EPS.06,adjusted.64. Freshvolumeup but lowercommoditypricing hurtYoYprofitability; brandJustBare retail+30% nottotalcompanygrowth. Counterexample to unconditional beef-to-chicken marginbeneficiary.
https://pilgrimspridecorporation.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/pilgrims-pride-reports-second-quarter-2026-results
SPUR capacity program excludes largest four = 500
FSIS Aug7 bulletin:500mUSD independent/regional operationalprocessorprogram, fourlargestbeefcompaniesineligible,applicationsSep11. Primaryagency; expansionofprocessingcapacityalone doesnotcreatecattle. No selectedticker grantaward or tradecatalyst inferred.
https://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USFSIS-423db50?wgt_ref=USFSIS_WIDGET_1
FSIS Brazil import eligibility scope
Import requirements displayFeb28 2022, establishmentlistApr24 2025: rawintactbeefeligible subjecttoexceptions andAPHIS requirements. Distinguish importsection from USexporttoBrazilrules. Page dates too old to establish currentplant-level clearance or today shipmenteligibility; retain gap.
https://www.fsis.usda.gov/inspection/import-export/import-export-library/brazil
Sep1 90CL FCA assessment versus offer/execution = 3.03
Platts originator of priceassessment Sep1: FCAEastCoast90CL16–60daydelivery3.03USD/lb,down.25; CIFsteady. Braziloffers3.04,but no bids/tradesheard. Directpriceassessor withanonymousparticipantinputs; strongerthanheadline but notconfirmed transaction or25%discount.
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/090126-brazil-origin-beef-offer-levels-into-us-drop-at-start-of-tariff-free-period
JBS Q2 geography and accounting split = -78.3
Aug10issuer Q2June30: IFRS adjustedEBITDA NorthAmericaBeef-78.3mvs-233m; Brazil269.2mvs228.6m; Australia230.7mvs290.2m; PPC502.9mvs817.7m. Group1429.3mIFRS versus1256.6mUSGAAP(non-audited); netloss102m,leverage3.10x. Not pureBrazil exposure; PPC publicUSGAAP360mrequiresreconciliation, not independentcontradiction.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1791942/000121390026087444/ea030137401ex99-1.htm