Runway

Notes

7310 observations, newest first
CENX Aluminum frozen study train L40 SMA50 slip0.001 = 152.86670391940595
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"CENX","lookback":40,"trend":true,"part":"train","slippage":0.001,"n":50,"return_pct":152.86670391940595,"dd_pct":35.43445426262909,"win_pct":52,"avg_win_pct":9.890944924189144,"avg_loss_pct":5.856208107179112,"mean_pct":2.33231146913238,"buyhold_pct":138.16993464052283} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CENX Aluminum frozen study test L10 SMA50 slip0.001 = -5.926083565998961
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"CENX","lookback":10,"trend":true,"part":"test","slippage":0.001,"n":32,"return_pct":-5.926083565998961,"dd_pct":33.21602089315632,"win_pct":59.375,"avg_win_pct":5.244965348080643,"avg_loss_pct":7.429257491280391,"mean_pct":0.09606231959022292,"buyhold_pct":152.5647948164147} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CENX Aluminum frozen study train L10 SMA50 slip0.001 = 43.50957825194332
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"CENX","lookback":10,"trend":true,"part":"train","slippage":0.001,"n":78,"return_pct":43.50957825194332,"dd_pct":60.18332586957622,"win_pct":48.717948717948715,"avg_win_pct":9.87589853955269,"avg_loss_pct":7.339776373397691,"mean_pct":1.0473473021422386,"buyhold_pct":138.16993464052283} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CENX Aluminum frozen study test L20 SMA50 slip0.001 = 4.592402599209526
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"CENX","lookback":20,"trend":true,"part":"test","slippage":0.001,"n":26,"return_pct":4.592402599209526,"dd_pct":25.851935531208014,"win_pct":53.84615384615385,"avg_win_pct":5.8023551441461745,"avg_loss_pct":5.839605130793615,"mean_pct":0.42914270955857975,"buyhold_pct":152.5647948164147,"mean_ci_pct":[-2.759395918534919,3.7542347334998523],"point_quarter_kelly":0.01849002253815543} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
CENX Aluminum frozen study train L20 SMA50 slip0.001 = 118.10994452529171
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"CENX","lookback":20,"trend":true,"part":"train","slippage":0.001,"n":65,"return_pct":118.10994452529171,"dd_pct":40.21957140118801,"win_pct":52.307692307692314,"avg_win_pct":9.301176735584354,"avg_loss_pct":6.615987911525149,"mean_pct":1.7099135961936671,"buyhold_pct":138.16993464052283} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Aluminum frozen study test L20 SMA50 slip0.002 = 11.162808385889111
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"AA","lookback":20,"trend":true,"part":"test","slippage":0.002,"n":22,"return_pct":11.162808385889111,"dd_pct":19.752482767067704,"win_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":5.75752186655539,"avg_loss_pct":4.4238265084244395,"mean_pct":0.6668476790654753,"buyhold_pct":33.288877033875686} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Aluminum frozen study test L20 SMA0 slip0.001 = 12.833027348921968
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"AA","lookback":20,"trend":false,"part":"test","slippage":0.001,"n":24,"return_pct":12.833027348921968,"dd_pct":18.621113782059272,"win_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":5.793963340254971,"avg_loss_pct":4.42650712228444,"mean_pct":0.6837281089852649,"buyhold_pct":33.288877033875686} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Aluminum frozen study train L20 SMA0 slip0.001 = 82.15737077908649
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"AA","lookback":20,"trend":false,"part":"train","slippage":0.001,"n":69,"return_pct":82.15737077908649,"dd_pct":51.950227600312026,"win_pct":59.42028985507246,"avg_win_pct":6.596312986499204,"avg_loss_pct":6.6160705945479625,"mean_pct":1.234766026074267,"buyhold_pct":78.67116032739527} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Aluminum frozen study test L40 SMA50 slip0.001 = 30.697347080228738
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"AA","lookback":40,"trend":true,"part":"test","slippage":0.001,"n":20,"return_pct":30.697347080228738,"dd_pct":14.393741245614455,"win_pct":60,"avg_win_pct":6.53959824057435,"avg_loss_pct":5.745784689826083,"mean_pct":1.6254450684141764,"buyhold_pct":33.288877033875686} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Aluminum frozen study train L40 SMA50 slip0.001 = 129.8707092946505
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"AA","lookback":40,"trend":true,"part":"train","slippage":0.001,"n":56,"return_pct":129.8707092946505,"dd_pct":36.40697433428305,"win_pct":67.85714285714286,"avg_win_pct":6.094497819633408,"avg_loss_pct":7.214022299392053,"mean_pct":1.8167592099466527,"buyhold_pct":78.67116032739527} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Aluminum frozen study test L10 SMA50 slip0.001 = -16.46589815139003
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"AA","lookback":10,"trend":true,"part":"test","slippage":0.001,"n":29,"return_pct":-16.46589815139003,"dd_pct":27.33214904352249,"win_pct":41.37931034482759,"avg_win_pct":5.75136820016884,"avg_loss_pct":4.79368287503442,"mean_pct":-0.43021346460548465,"buyhold_pct":33.288877033875686} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Aluminum frozen study train L10 SMA50 slip0.001 = 232.0651392414641
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"AA","lookback":10,"trend":true,"part":"train","slippage":0.001,"n":74,"return_pct":232.0651392414641,"dd_pct":36.07218242179877,"win_pct":59.45945945945946,"avg_win_pct":6.975372949028793,"avg_loss_pct":5.477051489420101,"mean_pct":1.9270927712792412,"buyhold_pct":78.67116032739527} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Aluminum frozen study test L20 SMA50 slip0.001 = 16.163185209217573
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"AA","lookback":20,"trend":true,"part":"test","slippage":0.001,"n":22,"return_pct":16.163185209217573,"dd_pct":18.62111378205926,"win_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":5.969249060937278,"avg_loss_pct":4.232482434679379,"mean_pct":0.8683833131289493,"buyhold_pct":33.288877033875686,"mean_ci_pct":[-1.773844512645932,4.217241047401682],"point_quarter_kelly":0.036369035043773076} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
AA Aluminum frozen study train L20 SMA50 slip0.001 = 187.05010052263157
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:08
Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"AA","lookback":20,"trend":true,"part":"train","slippage":0.001,"n":63,"return_pct":187.05010052263157,"dd_pct":32.25732078014123,"win_pct":61.904761904761905,"avg_win_pct":6.8207803493174275,"avg_loss_pct":5.829182623979365,"mean_pct":2.001746835680554,"buyhold_pct":78.67116032739527} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
EGA H1 volumes versus cash and restored cells = 227
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Aug12issuer:227cellsrestarted asofMondayAug10;H1castmetal1006ktvs1420kt(-29%),sales939ktvs1373kt(-32%);operatingcashAED1484mvs3441m(-57%)despiteEBITDA4506mvs4065m(+11%). AlternativeroutesoutsideHormuzreduceinventory;notabsenceofconstraint. This andAug26areoneoperator,twoobservations,not2independentcorroborations. https://media.ega.ae/ega-delivers-resilient-h1-2026-performance-maintaining-operational-and-supply-chain-continuity-amid-regional-disruption/
EGA Aug26 restarted cells = 315
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
OperatorAug26 2026:315/1262cellsrestarted(~25%),fullproductionexpectedQ1 2027;celltypicallyoneweekstabilization,somemetalusedforfurtherrestarts. Refinery~50%capacity,smelterrestorationnotdependent onfullrefinery. March28damagesource ofshutdown. Firstpartyoperatingclaim/promotionalrecoverybias;cellshareNOTdeliveredtonnes. https://media.ega.ae/egas-al-taweelah-smelter-restoration-reaches-25-completion-milestone/
AA Alumina disruption and offsetting segment costs = 9.5
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
IssuerQ2 2026 release: alumina2026production9.5–9.6mtonnes,cut0.2–0.3m;shipments11.5–11.6m,cut0.3–0.4m duePinjarrainstability/gassupplyCycloneNarelle. Aluminumproduction2.4–2.6munchanged. Q3alumina+10mnetoperations;aluminumtariffcost-10m,aluminacost+10m,efficienciesoffsetcarbonandenergy-salepressure. Forecasts,notrealizedQ3cash. https://news.alcoa.com/press-releases/press-release-details/2026/Alcoa-Corporation-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx
CENX Power and cost pass-through risk = 70
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
10K2025 MD&A: ~70%IcelandpowerfullyLMEindexed,remaining30%fixedplusLMEcomponent; majorportionofaluminaLMElinked. MtHolly100%SanteeCoopercostofservicepowerthroughDec2031;Sebreemarketelectricity. OriginalRiskFactorsread: cannotpassnon-indexedinputcostsincreasesviaindexedproductpricing;take-or-paypersistsincurtailments;freezingpotscanrequirecostlyslowrestart. CLI RiskFactors output incorrectly points intoMD&A; originalHTMLItem1Achecked. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm
CENX 2025 customer and supplier concentration = 54
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
10KfiledMar3 2026 covers2025. Glencore54%consolidatedsales (59.1%2024,73.8%2023),36.4%yearendownership; buysmetalLME+regional+productpremia,suppliesalumina/rawmaterials andfinancialcontracts. FYpurchases294m includesfinancialsettlements; not pure rawmaterialspend. Coke,pitch,cathodeslimitedsuppliers,nointernalproduction; do not assert one supplier. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026013788/cenx-20251231.htm
CENX Q2 primary aluminum realized unit revenue = 5308.806418029273
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Aug6 actualQ2primaryshipments130632t/revenue693.5m -> USD5308.806/t vsQ1 581.6m/122865=4733.652/t. US95057t/572.3m;Iceland35575t/121.2m. Mix and regionalpremium affect weighted price; not pure LME sensitivity. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
CENX H1 operating cash and capex = 236
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
H1 2026 consolidated CFO236m,capex134.4m -> simpleCFO-capex101.6m; netincome570.8m includes287.9mHawesvillesalegain. CFO includes workingcapital/tax/insurance effects; not normalized runrate or solely attributable cash. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
CENX Restarts and cash caveats = 94.3
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Aug6 statement: final90MtHollypots restarted, IcelandLine2nearfull, newJamalcoTG4onlineAugust; July45Xrefund94.3m; Julycash>debt issuerclaim. June liquidity784.9m comprises343.4mcash+44.8mrestricted+396.7mborrowingavailability. Not all cash. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
CENX Q2 2026 shipment and earnings baseline = 130632
Supply chain2026-09-07 06:06
Issuer filed Aug6 2026, Q2 endsJune30. Shipments130632t vs122865Q1; net sales752.1m vs649.2m; EBITDA326.9m vs231.4m; guidanceQ3 325–345m. First-party financial disclosure; promotional adjusted metrics and forward guide, not independent source. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm
Combined collector43 first remote output verified = 2
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:18
A news scan found the headline 'Combined collector43 first remote output verified'. The details of this output are as follows: it occurred on September 7 at 04:15:19 and the next output is expected on September 8 at 04:15:19, with 26 runs remaining and an exit code of 0. The full output consists of 10 lines and 1740 characters, which includes 6 bar lines and 3 parsed JSON lines, with 2 HTTP 200 responses. The output contains 8 unique PDF links for UAMY with a hash of c9606034fd60ef7c706c2cbe930009934a79dd9ac51eb52a5378a66d517938be, and 12 links for LRV with a hash of 0addb7d875d126a0c67dca03d087d6fe25a0018083bbc037d4503fb158730983, which matches the local tested selection. The first links for UAMY from August 25 and LRV from September 7 have already been reviewed for drilling and no new cash claim was found. This output supersedes the 572 worker-unverified handoff wording, as the actual remote output is now verified. list_jobs fund=supply job43; https://usantimony.com/investors/ ; https://www.larvottoresources.com/investors/asx-announcements/
UAMY Hypothetical scale and inventory coverage = 222.37063694267516
Supply chain2026-09-07 04:17
The hypothetical scale for UAMY is calculated by dividing the finished silver value by the second quarter pure silver cost of goods sold, multiplied by 91 days, which results in a stock stop scale of 4.808955. The target scale is 5.98209, based on a price of 5.20 and the average daily range. No order was placed. As of August 7, the shares multiplied by the September 4 close gives a market capitalization of 778.2808 million. The valuation proxy, which is less than the June cash, Treasury, and loan receivable marks of 672.8959 million, is not a formal enterprise value. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101538/000110465926094035/uamy-20260630x10q.htm
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