Notes

{"five_session":{"symbol":"AA","entry":"2025-07-23","exit":"2025-07-29","r":-0.05989838697770444,"rv":0.523151923008605,"adr_pct":0.034760112888052676,"benchmark":-0.04097311139564641},"ADR_sensitivity":{"symbol":"AA","entry":"2025-07-23","exit":"2025-07-25","entry_price":31.89,"exit_price":30.7815,"stop":30.7815,"target":34.107,"reason":"stop","ambiguous":0,"net_return":-0.03861336208485733}} SIPalladjusted;fee10bp+slip10bpeachside;observedSep7 2026. ADRcohortpreservesoriginalentryandnexteligibility,notretunedearlyreentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"five_session":{"symbol":"AA","entry":"2025-07-11","exit":"2025-07-17","r":-0.06390711087501999,"rv":0.46077174159125645,"adr_pct":0.031872574385511006,"benchmark":0.04013986013986015},"ADR_sensitivity":{"symbol":"AA","entry":"2025-07-11","exit":"2025-07-14","entry_price":30.92,"exit_price":29.9345,"stop":29.9345,"target":32.891000000000005,"reason":"stop","ambiguous":0,"net_return":-0.035737350670622337}} SIPalladjusted;fee10bp+slip10bpeachside;observedSep7 2026. ADRcohortpreservesoriginalentryandnexteligibility,notretunedearlyreentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"five_session":{"symbol":"AA","entry":"2025-06-27","exit":"2025-07-03","r":0.038491741059315965,"rv":0.3655344822680659,"adr_pct":0.032312119160460416,"benchmark":0.049766952337994},"ADR_sensitivity":{"symbol":"AA","entry":"2025-06-27","exit":"2025-06-27","entry_price":29.54,"exit_price":28.5855,"stop":28.5855,"target":31.449,"reason":"stop","ambiguous":0,"net_return":-0.036175140777562564}} SIPalladjusted;fee10bp+slip10bpeachside;observedSep7 2026. ADRcohortpreservesoriginalentryandnexteligibility,notretunedearlyreentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

{"five_session":{"symbol":"AA","entry":"2025-05-14","exit":"2025-05-20","r":-0.00012879341273064338,"rv":0.572718869645689,"adr_pct":0.032916078984485196,"benchmark":0.004912756225647907},"ADR_sensitivity":{"symbol":"AA","entry":"2025-05-14","exit":"2025-05-20","entry_price":28.36,"exit_price":28.47,"stop":27.4265,"target":30.227,"reason":"timeout","ambiguous":0,"net_return":-0.00012879341273064338}} SIPalladjusted;fee10bp+slip10bpeachside;observedSep7 2026. ADRcohortpreservesoriginalentryandnexteligibility,notretunedearlyreentry. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Two closedtradesFRO/STNGbothoperatorliquidations;FRO44.49to46.182917,STNG79.76to80.36; noobservedlosses,nostop/targetexecution orquotebenchmark, cannotestimate winprobability,avgloss,slippage. Flat/noqueuepercontext. Active12/18/36/39/43. Carrier39Sep706UTC4HTTP200hashesunchanged,9runsleft,next10UTC. USDA18nowfresh04:30runbutperiodstillAug23–29predatesSep1quota; cannotmeasurequotafill. Helium36lastSep612:45has3sourcefailures,nextSep712:45; notfreshsuccess. No armedsupplyreviewbefore08UTC. query_trades fund=supply; list_jobs fund=supply; https://www.maersk.com/news ; https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/lswimpe.pdf

Q2vsQ1 weightedprimaryrevenue/t +12.15036%,shipments+6.32157%,adjEBITDA+41.27053%;Q3guidancemidpoint335m only+2.47782%sequential. USQ2USD6020.598/t vsIceland3406.887/t reflectsregion/productmix. June30commonshares98,993,295;debt480m,cash343.4m;balance-sheetrestrictedcash46.3m vsliquiditynarrative44.8m not reconciled,excludeallrestrictedcashfromEVproxy. CurrentJulynet-cashclaimdoesnotmatchJuneperiod,notcontradiction. Q1unitrevenueprecisely4733.65075 corrects observation8012rounding. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm

{"CENX_shares_June30":98993295,"CENX_mcap_proxy":4630411373.625,"CENX_EV_proxy":4767011373.625,"CENX_annualized_H1_simple_FCF_yield_pct":4.388378992791762,"CENX_EV_to_four_times_Q2_adj_EBITDA":3.6456189764645153} June30shares/debt/cash and Sep4close; crude EV omits leases/pensions/NCI/dilution, four timesQ2EBITDAandtwo timesH1FCF are unnormalized illustrations, not forecasts. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars; https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/949157/000162828026054300/a20260630q2ex991earningsre.htm

Observed Sep7 on completed Sep4 bars. {"paths":10000,"trades_per_path":20,"allocation":0.1,"end_percentiles_pct":[-5.21776794057704,0.8558443997642606,7.6124702810476235],"loss_probability_pct":41,"dd95_pct":6.398605713106464,"exit_counts":{"target":5,"stop":15,"timeout":6,"ambiguous":0},"historical_ADR_exit_mean_pct":-0.7745834648387464,"seed":90607,"exit_sample_n":26} Model-conditioned four-trade-block 10,000 resamples,20trades,10%allocation; not future probabilities. ADR stop/target historical paths descriptive only, not trade authorization. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Observed Sep7 on completed Sep4 bars. {"paths":10000,"trades_per_path":20,"allocation":0.1,"end_percentiles_pct":[-2.964123417071017,1.5115940807800654,7.659352259884376],"loss_probability_pct":31.869999999999997,"dd95_pct":3.7796826721784487,"exit_counts":{"target":6,"stop":11,"timeout":5,"ambiguous":0},"historical_ADR_exit_mean_pct":-0.07576898135537037,"seed":90607,"exit_sample_n":22} Model-conditioned four-trade-block 10,000 resamples,20trades,10%allocation; not future probabilities. ADR stop/target historical paths descriptive only, not trade authorization. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Observed Sep7 on completed Sep4 bars. {"train_rv_median":0.6908202161079083,"test_vol_regimes":{"high":{"n":6,"mean_pct":-1.288938654938717,"win_pct":33.33333333333333},"low":{"n":20,"mean_pct":0.9445671189077687,"win_pct":60}},"mean_matched_XME_excess_pct":-0.38360503097270104,"trade_r_benchmark_corr":0.5675131002148757} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Observed Sep7 on completed Sep4 bars. {"train_rv_median":0.5595262614201342,"test_vol_regimes":{"high":{"n":7,"mean_pct":-0.444954509544393,"win_pct":42.857142857142854},"low":{"n":15,"mean_pct":1.4812742970431758,"win_pct":53.333333333333336}},"mean_matched_XME_excess_pct":-1.346497065929907,"trade_r_benchmark_corr":0.4466597259884565} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Observed Sep7 on completed Sep4 bars. {"close":46.775,"prior20close":52.29,"sma50":45.645900000000005,"adr20":2.4969049999999995,"adr_pct":5.33811865312667,"rv20_pct":43.61699834721669,"return20_pct":-8.69607651766543,"signal":false,"mean_dollar_volume20":90244985.68275,"stop_scale":44.278095,"target_scale":51.768809999999995,"whole_shares_position_cap":4,"whole_shares_1pct_risk":3} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Observed Sep7 on completed Sep4 bars. {"close":49.97,"prior20close":54.08,"sma50":48.681400000000004,"adr20":2.01799,"adr_pct":4.038403041825096,"rv20_pct":48.94718108059448,"return20_pct":-0.19972039145197407,"signal":false,"mean_dollar_volume20":237786439.49499997,"stop_scale":47.95201,"target_scale":54.00598,"whole_shares_position_cap":4,"whole_shares_1pct_risk":4} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"CENX","lookback":20,"trend":true,"part":"test","slippage":0.002,"n":26,"return_pct":-0.70742500764929,"dd_pct":26.295492950057287,"win_pct":50,"avg_win_pct":6.023894703560419,"avg_loss_pct":5.566925341856218,"mean_pct":0.2284846808521005,"buyhold_pct":152.5647948164147} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"CENX","lookback":20,"trend":false,"part":"test","slippage":0.001,"n":28,"return_pct":2.485184855839816,"dd_pct":23.24353908780833,"win_pct":53.57142857142857,"avg_win_pct":6.00353226092668,"avg_loss_pct":6.143460724713205,"mean_pct":0.36385694616530456,"buyhold_pct":152.5647948164147} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"CENX","lookback":20,"trend":false,"part":"train","slippage":0.001,"n":70,"return_pct":115.14424533682697,"dd_pct":44.716902781415854,"win_pct":51.42857142857142,"avg_win_pct":9.391648480106978,"avg_loss_pct":6.648737509722453,"mean_pct":1.6006038564755405,"buyhold_pct":138.16993464052283} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Measured Sep7 2026; SIP all-adjusted daily2020–Sep4 2026, train2020–24/test2025–Sep4 2026. Frozen note593 next-open/fifth-session-close long-only; fee10bp each side. All metrics percent except sample/slippage/Kelly. {"symbol":"CENX","lookback":40,"trend":true,"part":"test","slippage":0.001,"n":22,"return_pct":28.239394439237692,"dd_pct":16.296705377271337,"win_pct":59.09090909090909,"avg_win_pct":6.012051019160247,"avg_loss_pct":5.296389204032497,"mean_pct":1.3858709278541244,"buyhold_pct":152.5647948164147} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars