Notes

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 145,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-02-20","entry_i":1121,"entry_raw":98.49,"stop":95.5025,"target":102.97125,"adr":2.9874999999999994,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-20","exit_raw":95.5025,"return":-0.036133621532341675,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-06","entry_i":1131,"entry_raw":110.97,"stop":107.1255,"target":116.73675,"adr":3.8445,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-06","exit_raw":116.73675,"return":0.045673833890828686,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-09","entry_i":1132,"entry_raw":115.63,"stop":111.559,"target":121.73649999999999,"adr":4.071,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-09","exit_raw":111.559,"return":-0.040978561899798316,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-13","entry_i":1136,"entry_raw":130.89,"stop":125.37499999999999,"target":139.1625,"adr":5.515000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-13","exit_raw":125.37499999999999,"return":-0.04786461200477676,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-31","entry_i":1148,"entry_raw":134.66,"stop":127.89399999999999,"target":144.809,"adr":6.766000000000003,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2026-03-31","exit_raw":127.89399999999999,"return":-0.05592653973076456,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-05-13","entry_i":1178,"entry_raw":128.06,"stop":123.19200000000001,"target":135.362,"adr":4.867999999999998,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-05-14","exit_raw":123.13,"return":-0.04424933133823783,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-09","entry_i":1216,"entry_raw":116.62,"stop":112.9345,"target":122.14825,"adr":3.6855,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-10","exit_raw":112.9345,"return" https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. dr":1.8829999999999991,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-09-25","exit_raw":87.997,"return":-0.026806877343018787,"why":"stop","sessions":1}]},"holdout":{"N":17,"return_pct":-26.201361293958936,"drawdown_pct":29.234757761334286,"win_rate_pct":29.411764705882355,"avg_win_pct":3.8064315652426606,"avg_loss_pct":4.002893119782317,"mean_pct":-1.7060329183043819,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":74.63331587218438,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":4,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":1.9411764705882353,"ledger":[{"entry":"2026-01-09","entry_i":1093,"entry_raw":80.82,"stop":78.9185,"target":83.67224999999999,"adr":1.9015000000000015,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-13","exit_raw":83.67224999999999,"return":0.02909822716537458,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2026-01-15","entry_i":1097,"entry_raw":84.24,"stop":82.16749999999999,"target":87.34875,"adr":2.0725000000000007,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-15","exit_raw":82.16749999999999,"return":-0.030437200809581566,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-01-21","entry_i":1100,"entry_raw":88.64,"stop":86.352,"target":92.072,"adr":2.288000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-28","exit_raw":92.072,"return":0.03250474983526108,"why":"target","sessions":6},{"entry":"2026-01-30","entry_i":1107,"entry_raw":92.01,"stop":89.2305,"target":96.17925000000001,"adr":2.7795,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-02","exit_raw":89.2305,"return":-0.03601000967073498,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-02-11","entry_i":1115,"entry_raw":95.5,"stop":92.564,"target":99.904,"adr":2.936,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-12","exit_raw":92.564,"return":-0.036541593103906 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

Sep8retrieval of25Aug–Sep4rawSIPbars versus adjustmentall.16closesidentical;9earlierbars adjusted/raw ratioabout.994834–.994907, consistentwith retrospectivecashadjustment but not independently verifying fullactionhistory. IssuerAug5 announced.60dividendpaidAug31recordAug14. Noadjustmentignored claim; adjustedOHLCbacktest approximates totalreturn, rawcurrentcloseboth133.35. Historicalcashdividendexits/unexpectedactions stillnotvenueverified. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=CF&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 9999999999996,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2025-01-21","exit_raw":91.91,"return":-0.02621839568416484,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-05-06","entry_i":922,"entry_raw":78.63,"stop":76.1065,"target":82.41524999999999,"adr":2.5234999999999976,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2025-05-13","exit_raw":82.41524999999999,"return":0.04187000065890123,"why":"gap_target","sessions":6},{"entry":"2025-05-14","entry_i":928,"entry_raw":85.18,"stop":82.88400000000001,"target":88.624,"adr":2.295999999999997,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-05-14","exit_raw":82.88400000000001,"return":-0.032775486410339894,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2025-05-22","entry_i":934,"entry_raw":86.75,"stop":84.3055,"target":90.41675,"adr":2.444499999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-02","exit_raw":90.41675,"return":0.03603311593859915,"why":"target","sessions":7},{"entry":"2025-06-03","entry_i":941,"entry_raw":90.22,"stop":87.81099999999999,"target":93.8335,"adr":2.409,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-13","exit_raw":93.8335,"return":0.03383045500657689,"why":"target","sessions":9},{"entry":"2025-06-16","entry_i":950,"entry_raw":98.37,"stop":96.2445,"target":101.55825,"adr":2.1254999999999997,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-16","exit_raw":101.55825,"return":0.02623486670625219,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2025-06-17","entry_i":951,"entry_raw":99.35,"stop":97.1185,"target":102.69725,"adr":2.2314999999999996,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-18","exit_raw":97.1185,"return":-0.028308680137652198,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-09-25","entry_i":1020,"entry_raw":89.88,"stop":87.997,"target":92.7045,"a https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 2024-09-30","entry_i":773,"entry_raw":81.98,"stop":80.387,"target":84.3695,"adr":1.593,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-02","exit_raw":84.3695,"return":0.02299094581196459,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-10-07","entry_i":778,"entry_raw":86.54,"stop":84.95200000000001,"target":88.92200000000001,"adr":1.5880000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-07","exit_raw":84.95200000000001,"return":-0.02422217245612912,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-11-21","entry_i":811,"entry_raw":86.51,"stop":84.462,"target":89.58200000000001,"adr":2.047999999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-11-25","exit_raw":84.462,"return":-0.029513993776737912,"why":"stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-12-04","entry_i":819,"entry_raw":90.74,"stop":88.675,"target":93.83749999999999,"adr":2.0649999999999986,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-12-04","exit_raw":88.675,"return":-0.02860323961911415,"why":"stop","sessions":1}]},"validation":{"N":9,"return_pct":4.389195619873032,"drawdown_pct":5.588989822929502,"win_rate_pct":55.55555555555556,"avg_win_pct":3.2278714017972643,"avg_loss_pct":2.852735989379393,"mean_pct":0.5253792279409721,"quarter_kelly":0.040690842550948875,"buyhold_pct":-7.902368293861772,"reasons":{"target":4,"stop":3,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.5555555555555554,"ledger":[{"entry":"2025-01-14","entry_i":845,"entry_raw":91.62,"stop":89.813,"target":94.3305,"adr":1.8069999999999986,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2025-01-16","exit_raw":94.3305,"return":0.02342513177953376,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2025-01-17","entry_i":848,"entry_raw":93.82,"stop":91.98599999999999,"target":96.571,"adr":1.833 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. :628,"entry_raw":77.85,"stop":76.103,"target":80.47049999999999,"adr":1.7469999999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-04","exit_raw":76.103,"return":-0.028288396607677235,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-03-08","entry_i":632,"entry_raw":79.35,"stop":77.42049999999999,"target":82.24425,"adr":1.9294999999999995,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-21","exit_raw":80.89,"return":0.013309543390743528,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2024-07-31","entry_i":731,"entry_raw":72.74,"stop":71.2815,"target":74.92774999999999,"adr":1.4584999999999995,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-02","exit_raw":71.2815,"return":-0.025912967270698695,"why":"stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-08-09","entry_i":738,"entry_raw":75.75,"stop":74.02,"target":78.345,"adr":1.7300000000000026,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-09","exit_raw":74.02,"return":-0.028683710538498608,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-08-12","entry_i":739,"entry_raw":76.07,"stop":74.28649999999999,"target":78.74525,"adr":1.7835000000000023,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-23","exit_raw":76.93,"return":0.005255700956137144,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2024-08-30","entry_i":753,"entry_raw":79.28,"stop":77.643,"target":81.7355,"adr":1.6370000000000011,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-09-03","exit_raw":77.643,"return":-0.026506862100630024,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2024-09-25","entry_i":770,"entry_raw":81.66,"stop":80.12899999999999,"target":83.95649999999999,"adr":1.5310000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-09-25","exit_raw":80.12899999999999,"return":-0.024618361433343283,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":" https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 25","entry_i":247,"entry_raw":105.31,"stop":101.9165,"target":110.40025,"adr":3.3934999999999986,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-30","exit_raw":101.9165,"return":-0.038013191816757885,"why":"stop","sessions":4},{"entry":"2023-02-13","entry_i":364,"entry_raw":82.07,"stop":79.71549999999999,"target":85.60175,"adr":2.3545000000000016,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-02-13","exit_raw":79.71549999999999,"return":-0.03449935199789578,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2023-06-16","entry_i":450,"entry_raw":65.86,"stop":63.7515,"target":69.02275,"adr":2.1084999999999994,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2023-06-27","exit_raw":63.7515,"return":-0.03780541193447373,"why":"stop","sessions":7},{"entry":"2023-07-19","entry_i":471,"entry_raw":71.4,"stop":69.42,"target":74.37,"adr":1.9800000000000004,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-07-24","exit_raw":74.37,"return":0.03536575925034402,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2023-07-25","entry_i":475,"entry_raw":75.14,"stop":73.1255,"target":78.16175,"adr":2.014500000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-08-03","exit_raw":78.16175,"return":0.03399231815412218,"why":"gap_target","sessions":8},{"entry":"2023-12-22","entry_i":581,"entry_raw":75.25,"stop":73.294,"target":78.184,"adr":1.9560000000000017,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-01-04","exit_raw":78.184,"return":0.032774746652075804,"why":"gap_target","sessions":8},{"entry":"2024-02-26","entry_i":623,"entry_raw":75.53,"stop":73.879,"target":78.0065,"adr":1.6510000000000011,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-01","exit_raw":78.0065,"return":0.026610108550267908,"why":"target","sessions":5},{"entry":"2024-03-04","entry_i" https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 22,"stop":80.2625,"target":90.15625,"adr":3.9574999999999974,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-09","exit_raw":80.2625,"return":-0.05269097598953887,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-03-22","entry_i":139,"entry_raw":92.44,"stop":88.1625,"target":98.85624999999999,"adr":4.277499999999999,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-25","exit_raw":98.85624999999999,"return":0.0630126279448473,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-03-28","entry_i":143,"entry_raw":96.7,"stop":92.358,"target":103.21300000000001,"adr":4.342000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-29","exit_raw":87.41,"return":-0.1014776698486407,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-07-28","entry_i":227,"entry_raw":86.99,"stop":83.62899999999999,"target":92.0315,"adr":3.361000000000003,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-02","exit_raw":92.0315,"return":0.05162620184246558,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-08-03","entry_i":231,"entry_raw":91.2,"stop":87.752,"target":96.37200000000001,"adr":3.4480000000000026,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-04","exit_raw":87.752,"return":-0.04356290059459034,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-08-10","entry_i":236,"entry_raw":95.97,"stop":92.32,"target":101.445,"adr":3.65,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-15","exit_raw":92.32,"return":-0.04378725145467888,"why":"stop","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-08-23","entry_i":245,"entry_raw":97.96,"stop":94.52799999999999,"target":103.10799999999999,"adr":3.4319999999999986,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-24","exit_raw":103.10799999999999,"return":0.04625564681004013,"why":"target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-08- https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"train":{"N":30,"return_pct":-16.179779390936833,"drawdown_pct":23.250329710190233,"win_rate_pct":43.333333333333336,"avg_win_pct":4.045957944285982,"avg_loss_pct":3.958193427808924,"mean_pct":-0.48972783323446456,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":16,"target":9,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.533333333333333,"ledger":[{"entry":"2022-02-02","entry_i":106,"entry_raw":66.9,"stop":63.891000000000005,"target":71.4135,"adr":3.0089999999999995,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-02-08","exit_raw":63.891000000000005,"return":-0.05069056689798057,"why":"stop","sessions":5},{"entry":"2022-02-14","entry_i":114,"entry_raw":68.57,"stop":65.25649999999999,"target":73.54024999999999,"adr":3.3134999999999977,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-02-14","exit_raw":65.25649999999999,"return":-0.05401585839013123,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2022-02-25","entry_i":122,"entry_raw":70.92,"stop":67.3255,"target":76.31174999999999,"adr":3.5944999999999965,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-01","exit_raw":76.31174999999999,"return":0.06958896745501697,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2022-03-02","entry_i":125,"entry_raw":76.3,"stop":72.6545,"target":81.76825,"adr":3.6454999999999984,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-04","exit_raw":81.76825,"return":0.06525699260575846,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2022-03-07","entry_i":128,"entry_raw":83.58,"stop":79.885,"target":89.1225,"adr":3.6949999999999976,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-07","exit_raw":89.1225,"return":0.05993497333339404,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2022-03-08","entry_i":129,"entry_raw":84. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":-7.902368293861772,"reasons":{"stop":12,"target":9,"gap_stop":3,"gap_target":2,"time":1},"mean_sessions":3.888888888888889},"holdout":{"N":46,"return_pct":-14.716448127630354,"drawdown_pct":41.27101385739108,"win_rate_pct":47.82608695652174,"avg_win_pct":4.766183978766492,"avg_loss_pct":4.7682072992097035,"mean_pct":-0.20828103582978386,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":74.63331587218438,"reasons":{"target":19,"stop":18,"gap_stop":6,"gap_target":3},"mean_sessions":2.8260869565217392}},"both":{"train":{"N":30,"return_pct":-8.286043328630566,"drawdown_pct":17.767605770615248,"win_rate_pct":43.333333333333336,"avg_win_pct":4.358565510987818,"avg_loss_pct":3.6696344482255188,"mean_pct":-0.19074779923307306,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":16,"target":9,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.533333333333333},"validation":{"N":9,"return_pct":7.24610794711984,"drawdown_pct":5.162932595301262,"win_rate_pct":55.55555555555556,"avg_win_pct":3.53802101579769,"avg_loss_pct":2.5608556471333115,"mean_pct":0.8274091656061336,"quarter_kelly":0.05846553496373058,"buyhold_pct":-7.902368293861772,"reasons":{"target":4,"stop":3,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.5555555555555554},"holdout":{"N":17,"return_pct":-22.339990124300392,"drawdown_pct":26.970356892638915,"win_rate_pct":29.411764705882355,"avg_win_pct":4.118319471517569,"avg_loss_pct":3.714468441061886,"mean_pct":-1.4107072903032225,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":74.63331587218438,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":4,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":1.9411764705882353}}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"breakout":{"train":{"N":30,"return_pct":-8.286043328630566,"drawdown_pct":17.767605770615248,"win_rate_pct":43.333333333333336,"avg_win_pct":4.358565510987818,"avg_loss_pct":3.6696344482255188,"mean_pct":-0.19074779923307306,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":16,"target":9,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.533333333333333},"validation":{"N":10,"return_pct":3.966597438834518,"drawdown_pct":6.059012196268798,"win_rate_pct":50.0,"avg_win_pct":3.53802101579769,"avg_loss_pct":2.660270443025703,"mean_pct":0.4388752863859935,"quarter_kelly":0.03101135383498023,"buyhold_pct":-7.902368293861772,"reasons":{"target":4,"stop":4,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.5},"holdout":{"N":17,"return_pct":-22.339990124300392,"drawdown_pct":26.970356892638915,"win_rate_pct":29.411764705882355,"avg_win_pct":4.118319471517569,"avg_loss_pct":3.714468441061886,"mean_pct":-1.4107072903032225,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":74.63331587218438,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":4,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":1.9411764705882353}},"trend":{"train":{"N":121,"return_pct":-47.2663574774331,"drawdown_pct":55.70800010622279,"win_rate_pct":40.49586776859504,"avg_win_pct":4.294450551231009,"avg_loss_pct":3.660789650661543,"mean_pct":-0.43924609782902185,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":64,"target":39,"gap_target":8,"gap_stop":7,"time":3},"mean_sessions":3.5289256198347108},"validation":{"N":27,"return_pct":-3.739318630793298,"drawdown_pct":17.910505187664526,"win_rate_pct":44.44444444444444,"avg_win_pct":3.4030488548164706,"avg_loss_pct":2.882838609625892,"mean_pct":-0.08911084765150872,"quarter_ https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 818,"avg_loss_pct":3.6696344482255188,"mean_pct":-0.19074779923307306,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":16,"target":9,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.533333333333333},{"lookback":20,"SMA":100,"N":26,"return_pct":-4.775381907199439,"drawdown_pct":17.20629634750851,"win_rate_pct":46.15384615384615,"avg_win_pct":4.265230738687028,"avg_loss_pct":3.8167040804798886,"mean_pct":-0.08658031778746578,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":13,"target":8,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.5},{"lookback":40,"SMA":20,"N":22,"return_pct":-3.7650455558232987,"drawdown_pct":17.841777573760954,"win_rate_pct":45.45454545454545,"avg_win_pct":4.462553822290478,"avg_loss_pct":3.839931235368774,"mean_pct":-0.06607439097820467,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":7,"time":2,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.227272727272727},{"lookback":40,"SMA":50,"N":22,"return_pct":-3.7650455558232987,"drawdown_pct":17.841777573760954,"win_rate_pct":45.45454545454545,"avg_win_pct":4.462553822290478,"avg_loss_pct":3.839931235368774,"mean_pct":-0.06607439097820467,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":7,"time":2,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.227272727272727},{"lookback":40,"SMA":100,"N":22,"return_pct":-3.7650455558232987,"drawdown_pct":17.841777573760954,"win_rate_pct":45.45454545454545,"avg_win_pct":4.462553822290478,"avg_loss_pct":3.839931235368774,"mean_pct":-0.06607439097820467,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":7,"time":2,"gap_stop":1,"g https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. [{"lookback":10,"SMA":20,"N":42,"return_pct":-16.320997587550423,"drawdown_pct":26.239002652549637,"win_rate_pct":42.857142857142854,"avg_win_pct":4.087572499323489,"avg_loss_pct":3.652373466994703,"mean_pct":-0.33525376714404953,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":23,"target":14,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.357142857142857},{"lookback":10,"SMA":50,"N":39,"return_pct":-19.500651292781757,"drawdown_pct":27.07507504234481,"win_rate_pct":41.02564102564102,"avg_win_pct":4.123148104648024,"avg_loss_pct":3.658265970844127,"mean_pct":-0.4658909655140136,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":22,"target":12,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.2564102564102564},{"lookback":10,"SMA":100,"N":34,"return_pct":-18.641428418156448,"drawdown_pct":26.02406719285736,"win_rate_pct":41.17647058823529,"avg_win_pct":4.126332913960001,"avg_loss_pct":3.7598990274430957,"mean_pct":-0.5126270515712325,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":19,"target":10,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.235294117647059},{"lookback":20,"SMA":20,"N":30,"return_pct":-8.286043328630566,"drawdown_pct":17.767605770615248,"win_rate_pct":43.333333333333336,"avg_win_pct":4.358565510987818,"avg_loss_pct":3.6696344482255188,"mean_pct":-0.19074779923307306,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":16,"target":9,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.533333333333333},{"lookback":20,"SMA":50,"N":30,"return_pct":-8.286043328630566,"drawdown_pct":17.767605770615248,"win_rate_pct":43.333333333333336,"avg_win_pct":4.358565510987 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 48042378226,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-14","entry_i":1219,"entry_raw":121.09,"stop":117.6255,"target":126.28675000000001,"adr":3.464500000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-15","exit_raw":117.6255,"return":-0.03152075152467482,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-21","entry_i":1224,"entry_raw":123.55,"stop":120.024,"target":128.839,"adr":3.525999999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-23","exit_raw":128.839,"return":0.03968484095361613,"why":"gap_target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2026-08-24","entry_i":1248,"entry_raw":129.99,"stop":125.781755,"target":136.3023675,"adr":4.208245,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-08-25","exit_raw":125.781755,"return":-0.03527213560081466,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-09-02","entry_i":1255,"entry_raw":133.57,"stop":128.870825,"target":140.6187625,"adr":4.699175000000001,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-09-02","exit_raw":140.6187625,"return":0.04961846417214155,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-09-03","entry_i":1256,"entry_raw":138.6,"stop":133.546325,"target":146.1805125,"adr":5.053675000000002,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-09-04","exit_raw":133.546325,"return":-0.03934858381605544,"why":"stop","sessions":2}]}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. ":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-02-20","entry_i":1121,"entry_raw":98.49,"stop":95.5025,"target":102.97125,"adr":2.9874999999999994,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-20","exit_raw":95.5025,"return":-0.03323767123161181,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-06","entry_i":1131,"entry_raw":110.97,"stop":107.1255,"target":116.73675,"adr":3.8445,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-06","exit_raw":116.73675,"return":0.048815575859809446,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-09","entry_i":1132,"entry_raw":115.63,"stop":111.559,"target":121.73649999999999,"adr":4.071,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-09","exit_raw":111.559,"return":-0.03809716829160126,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-13","entry_i":1136,"entry_raw":130.89,"stop":125.37499999999999,"target":139.1625,"adr":5.515000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-03-13","exit_raw":125.37499999999999,"return":-0.04500390763247186,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-03-31","entry_i":1148,"entry_raw":134.66,"stop":127.89399999999999,"target":144.809,"adr":6.766000000000003,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2026-03-31","exit_raw":127.89399999999999,"return":-0.05309005753545848,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-05-13","entry_i":1178,"entry_raw":128.06,"stop":123.19200000000001,"target":135.362,"adr":4.867999999999998,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-05-14","exit_raw":123.13,"return":-0.04137776480353428,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-07-09","entry_i":1216,"entry_raw":116.62,"stop":112.9345,"target":122.14825,"adr":3.6855,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-07-10","exit_raw":112.9345,"return":-0.034503 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. .8829999999999991,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-09-25","exit_raw":87.997,"return":-0.023882904706161057,"why":"stop","sessions":1}]},"holdout":{"N":17,"return_pct":-22.339990124300392,"drawdown_pct":26.970356892638915,"win_rate_pct":29.411764705882355,"avg_win_pct":4.118319471517569,"avg_loss_pct":3.714468441061886,"mean_pct":-1.4107072903032225,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":74.63331587218438,"reasons":{"stop":11,"target":4,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":1.9411764705882353,"ledger":[{"entry":"2026-01-09","entry_i":1093,"entry_raw":80.82,"stop":78.9185,"target":83.67224999999999,"adr":1.9015000000000015,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-13","exit_raw":83.67224999999999,"return":0.03219016748720449,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2026-01-15","entry_i":1097,"entry_raw":84.24,"stop":82.16749999999999,"target":87.34875,"adr":2.0725000000000007,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-15","exit_raw":82.16749999999999,"return":-0.02752413553142985,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2026-01-21","entry_i":1100,"entry_raw":88.64,"stop":86.352,"target":92.072,"adr":2.288000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2026-01-28","exit_raw":92.072,"return":0.03560692510310681,"why":"target","sessions":6},{"entry":"2026-01-30","entry_i":1107,"entry_raw":92.01,"stop":89.2305,"target":96.17925000000001,"adr":2.7795,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-02","exit_raw":89.2305,"return":-0.03311368797640157,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2026-02-11","entry_i":1115,"entry_raw":95.5,"stop":92.564,"target":99.904,"adr":2.936,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2026-02-12","exit_raw":92.564,"return":-0.03364686855958998,"why https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 99999996,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2025-01-21","exit_raw":91.91,"return":-0.02329265494575805,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-05-06","entry_i":922,"entry_raw":78.63,"stop":76.1065,"target":82.41524999999999,"adr":2.5234999999999976,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2025-05-13","exit_raw":82.41524999999999,"return":0.04500031395660753,"why":"gap_target","sessions":6},{"entry":"2025-05-14","entry_i":928,"entry_raw":85.18,"stop":82.88400000000001,"target":88.624,"adr":2.295999999999997,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-05-14","exit_raw":82.88400000000001,"return":-0.02986944654467294,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2025-05-22","entry_i":934,"entry_raw":86.75,"stop":84.3055,"target":90.41675,"adr":2.444499999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-02","exit_raw":90.41675,"return":0.039145892232796964,"why":"target","sessions":7},{"entry":"2025-06-03","entry_i":941,"entry_raw":90.22,"stop":87.81099999999999,"target":93.8335,"adr":2.409,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-13","exit_raw":93.8335,"return":0.03693661337454457,"why":"target","sessions":9},{"entry":"2025-06-16","entry_i":950,"entry_raw":98.37,"stop":96.2445,"target":101.55825,"adr":2.1254999999999997,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-16","exit_raw":101.55825,"return":0.02931820402068608,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2025-06-17","entry_i":951,"entry_raw":99.35,"stop":97.1185,"target":102.69725,"adr":2.2314999999999996,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2025-06-18","exit_raw":97.1185,"return":-0.025389219688740416,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2025-09-25","entry_i":1020,"entry_raw":89.88,"stop":87.997,"target":92.7045,"adr":1 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. -09-30","entry_i":773,"entry_raw":81.98,"stop":80.387,"target":84.3695,"adr":1.593,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-02","exit_raw":84.3695,"return":0.02606453671973963,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-10-07","entry_i":778,"entry_raw":86.54,"stop":84.95200000000001,"target":88.92200000000001,"adr":1.5880000000000003,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-10-07","exit_raw":84.95200000000001,"return":-0.021290434036521866,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-11-21","entry_i":811,"entry_raw":86.51,"stop":84.462,"target":89.58200000000001,"adr":2.047999999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-11-25","exit_raw":84.462,"return":-0.02659815470987026,"why":"stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-12-04","entry_i":819,"entry_raw":90.74,"stop":88.675,"target":93.83749999999999,"adr":2.0649999999999986,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-12-04","exit_raw":88.675,"return":-0.025684664178371786,"why":"stop","sessions":1}]},"validation":{"N":9,"return_pct":7.24610794711984,"drawdown_pct":5.162932595301262,"win_rate_pct":55.55555555555556,"avg_win_pct":3.53802101579769,"avg_loss_pct":2.5608556471333115,"mean_pct":0.8274091656061336,"quarter_kelly":0.05846553496373058,"buyhold_pct":-7.902368293861772,"reasons":{"target":4,"stop":3,"gap_stop":1,"gap_target":1},"mean_sessions":3.5555555555555554,"ledger":[{"entry":"2025-01-14","entry_i":845,"entry_raw":91.62,"stop":89.813,"target":94.3305,"adr":1.8069999999999986,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2025-01-16","exit_raw":94.3305,"return":0.026500027205249355,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2025-01-17","entry_i":848,"entry_raw":93.82,"stop":91.98599999999999,"target":96.571,"adr":1.83399999 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. :628,"entry_raw":77.85,"stop":76.103,"target":80.47049999999999,"adr":1.7469999999999999,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-04","exit_raw":76.103,"return":-0.02536887521661013,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-03-08","entry_i":632,"entry_raw":79.35,"stop":77.42049999999999,"target":82.24425,"adr":1.9294999999999995,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-21","exit_raw":80.89,"return":0.016354046386667376,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2024-07-31","entry_i":731,"entry_raw":72.74,"stop":71.2815,"target":74.92774999999999,"adr":1.4584999999999995,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-02","exit_raw":71.2815,"return":-0.02298630886826125,"why":"stop","sessions":3},{"entry":"2024-08-09","entry_i":738,"entry_raw":75.75,"stop":74.02,"target":78.345,"adr":1.7300000000000026,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-09","exit_raw":74.02,"return":-0.025765376873782775,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024-08-12","entry_i":739,"entry_raw":76.07,"stop":74.28649999999999,"target":78.74525,"adr":1.7835000000000023,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-08-23","exit_raw":76.93,"return":0.008276006067435393,"why":"time","sessions":10},{"entry":"2024-08-30","entry_i":753,"entry_raw":79.28,"stop":77.643,"target":81.7355,"adr":1.6370000000000011,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2024-09-03","exit_raw":77.643,"return":-0.02358198806369116,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2024-09-25","entry_i":770,"entry_raw":81.66,"stop":80.12899999999999,"target":83.95649999999999,"adr":1.5310000000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-09-25","exit_raw":80.12899999999999,"return":-0.02168781336917669,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2024 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 8-25","entry_i":247,"entry_raw":105.31,"stop":101.9165,"target":110.40025,"adr":3.3934999999999986,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-30","exit_raw":101.9165,"return":-0.03512288871179292,"why":"stop","sessions":4},{"entry":"2023-02-13","entry_i":364,"entry_raw":82.07,"stop":79.71549999999999,"target":85.60175,"adr":2.3545000000000016,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-02-13","exit_raw":79.71549999999999,"return":-0.03159849151100791,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2023-06-16","entry_i":450,"entry_raw":65.86,"stop":63.7515,"target":69.02275,"adr":2.1084999999999994,"regime":"high","market":"up","exit":"2023-06-27","exit_raw":63.7515,"return":-0.03491448455188462,"why":"stop","sessions":7},{"entry":"2023-07-19","entry_i":471,"entry_raw":71.4,"stop":69.42,"target":74.37,"adr":1.9800000000000004,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-07-24","exit_raw":74.37,"return":0.03847653046184041,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2023-07-25","entry_i":475,"entry_raw":75.14,"stop":73.1255,"target":78.16175,"adr":2.014500000000001,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2023-08-03","exit_raw":78.16175,"return":0.037098962842228245,"why":"gap_target","sessions":8},{"entry":"2023-12-22","entry_i":581,"entry_raw":75.25,"stop":73.294,"target":78.184,"adr":1.9560000000000017,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-01-04","exit_raw":78.184,"return":0.03587773312921394,"why":"gap_target","sessions":8},{"entry":"2024-02-26","entry_i":623,"entry_raw":75.53,"stop":73.879,"target":78.0065,"adr":1.6510000000000011,"regime":"low","market":"up","exit":"2024-03-01","exit_raw":78.0065,"return":0.02969457328418157,"why":"target","sessions":5},{"entry":"2024-03-04","entry_i" https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. 2,"stop":80.2625,"target":90.15625,"adr":3.9574999999999974,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-09","exit_raw":80.2625,"return":-0.04984477249675956,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-03-22","entry_i":139,"entry_raw":92.44,"stop":88.1625,"target":98.85624999999999,"adr":4.277499999999999,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-25","exit_raw":98.85624999999999,"return":0.06620646456820856,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-03-28","entry_i":143,"entry_raw":96.7,"stop":92.358,"target":103.21300000000001,"adr":4.342000000000001,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-29","exit_raw":87.41,"return":-0.09877804667436729,"why":"gap_stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-07-28","entry_i":227,"entry_raw":86.99,"stop":83.62899999999999,"target":92.0315,"adr":3.361000000000003,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-02","exit_raw":92.0315,"return":0.05478582778597296,"why":"target","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-08-03","entry_i":231,"entry_raw":91.2,"stop":87.752,"target":96.37200000000001,"adr":3.4480000000000026,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-04","exit_raw":87.752,"return":-0.04068927166891323,"why":"stop","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-08-10","entry_i":236,"entry_raw":95.97,"stop":92.32,"target":101.445,"adr":3.65,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-15","exit_raw":92.32,"return":-0.040914296594365074,"why":"stop","sessions":4},{"entry":"2022-08-23","entry_i":245,"entry_raw":97.96,"stop":94.52799999999999,"target":103.10799999999999,"adr":3.4319999999999986,"regime":"low","market":"down","exit":"2022-08-24","exit_raw":103.10799999999999,"return":0.04939913684424657,"why":"target","sessions":2},{"entry":"2022-0 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"train":{"N":30,"return_pct":-8.286043328630566,"drawdown_pct":17.767605770615248,"win_rate_pct":43.333333333333336,"avg_win_pct":4.358565510987818,"avg_loss_pct":3.6696344482255188,"mean_pct":-0.19074779923307306,"quarter_kelly":0,"buyhold_pct":26.869592088998772,"reasons":{"stop":16,"target":9,"gap_target":2,"time":2,"gap_stop":1},"mean_sessions":3.533333333333333,"ledger":[{"entry":"2022-02-02","entry_i":106,"entry_raw":66.9,"stop":63.891000000000005,"target":71.4135,"adr":3.0089999999999995,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-02-08","exit_raw":63.891000000000005,"return":-0.04783835314751428,"why":"stop","sessions":5},{"entry":"2022-02-14","entry_i":114,"entry_raw":68.57,"stop":65.25649999999999,"target":73.54024999999999,"adr":3.3134999999999977,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-02-14","exit_raw":65.25649999999999,"return":-0.0511736355254474,"why":"stop","sessions":1},{"entry":"2022-02-25","entry_i":122,"entry_raw":70.92,"stop":67.3255,"target":76.31174999999999,"adr":3.5944999999999965,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-01","exit_raw":76.31174999999999,"return":0.07280256278436448,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2022-03-02","entry_i":125,"entry_raw":76.3,"stop":72.6545,"target":81.76825,"adr":3.6454999999999984,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-04","exit_raw":81.76825,"return":0.06845757245479933,"why":"target","sessions":3},{"entry":"2022-03-07","entry_i":128,"entry_raw":83.58,"stop":79.885,"target":89.1225,"adr":3.6949999999999976,"regime":"high","market":"down","exit":"2022-03-07","exit_raw":89.1225,"return":0.06311956309951783,"why":"target","sessions":1},{"entry":"2022-03-08","entry_i":129,"entry_raw":84.2 https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"regime_high":{"N":11,"mean_pct":-2.164598821915098,"win_rate_pct":18.181818181818183,"compound_pct":-21.828029514327206},"regime_low":{"N":6,"mean_pct":-0.6910998417203607,"win_rate_pct":33.33333333333333,"compound_pct":-4.319734373805328},"market_down":{"N":1,"mean_pct":-5.085576077975295,"win_rate_pct":0.0,"compound_pct":-5.085576077975295},"market_up":{"N":16,"mean_pct":-1.4294756258383092,"win_rate_pct":25.0,"compound_pct":-21.19727864821802}} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars

MeasuredSep8 06UTC; JSON concatenation by metricpart. Marketdata throughSep4; outputs conditionalmodels not forecasts. {"seed":2026090806,"draws":20000,"mean_CI95_pct":[-3.0410334374370342,-0.06387906840418991],"block3_20trade_paths":{"0.05":{"loss_probability":0.99625,"median_return_pct":-1.5974233100766178,"p95_maxdrawdown_pct":2.726001223157105,"prob_loss_5pct":0.0},"0.1":{"loss_probability":0.9964,"median_return_pct":-3.175251831752207,"p95_maxdrawdown_pct":5.384157516762951,"prob_loss_5pct":0.0721},"0.25":{"loss_probability":0.99655,"median_return_pct":-7.796889697248554,"p95_maxdrawdown_pct":12.965156453745793,"prob_loss_5pct":0.8419}},"target_frequency":0.23529411764705882,"stop_frequency":0.7647058823529411,"timeout_frequency":0.0} https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars