Runway

Notes

7310 observations, newest first
SEI Training-only parameter sensitivity 40/20 = 15.397766180355573
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"s":"SEI","look":40,"hold":20,"return":15.397766180355573,"drawdown":58.41968027001221,"N":24,"win_pct":58.333333333333336} Pre2026only,5bpfees20bpslippageperside,nextopenbreakout/timeexit. Executedafterfrozenholdoutreviewdiagnostically,NO selectionormoreholdouttests; notindependentvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SEI Training-only parameter sensitivity 40/10 = -19.03328042069902
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"s":"SEI","look":40,"hold":10,"return":-19.03328042069902,"drawdown":55.622523287771386,"N":35,"win_pct":48.57142857142857} Pre2026only,5bpfees20bpslippageperside,nextopenbreakout/timeexit. Executedafterfrozenholdoutreviewdiagnostically,NO selectionormoreholdouttests; notindependentvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SEI Training-only parameter sensitivity 40/5 = -23.215854298403766
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"s":"SEI","look":40,"hold":5,"return":-23.215854298403766,"drawdown":47.86173162632337,"N":47,"win_pct":42.5531914893617} Pre2026only,5bpfees20bpslippageperside,nextopenbreakout/timeexit. Executedafterfrozenholdoutreviewdiagnostically,NO selectionormoreholdouttests; notindependentvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SEI Training-only parameter sensitivity 20/20 = 95.04982213313222
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"s":"SEI","look":20,"hold":20,"return":95.04982213313222,"drawdown":56.51247964458535,"N":32,"win_pct":56.25} Pre2026only,5bpfees20bpslippageperside,nextopenbreakout/timeexit. Executedafterfrozenholdoutreviewdiagnostically,NO selectionormoreholdouttests; notindependentvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SEI Training-only parameter sensitivity 20/10 = 52.03202796755446
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"s":"SEI","look":20,"hold":10,"return":52.03202796755446,"drawdown":52.80577534581349,"N":45,"win_pct":48.888888888888886} Pre2026only,5bpfees20bpslippageperside,nextopenbreakout/timeexit. Executedafterfrozenholdoutreviewdiagnostically,NO selectionormoreholdouttests; notindependentvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SEI Training-only parameter sensitivity 20/5 = 17.94714060852937
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"s":"SEI","look":20,"hold":5,"return":17.94714060852937,"drawdown":57.50914229345035,"N":61,"win_pct":44.26229508196721} Pre2026only,5bpfees20bpslippageperside,nextopenbreakout/timeexit. Executedafterfrozenholdoutreviewdiagnostically,NO selectionormoreholdouttests; notindependentvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SEI Training-only parameter sensitivity 10/20 = 119.01189491382853
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"s":"SEI","look":10,"hold":20,"return":119.01189491382853,"drawdown":52.71601778275554,"N":41,"win_pct":48.78048780487805} Pre2026only,5bpfees20bpslippageperside,nextopenbreakout/timeexit. Executedafterfrozenholdoutreviewdiagnostically,NO selectionormoreholdouttests; notindependentvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SEI Training-only parameter sensitivity 10/10 = 189.77339228761699
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"s":"SEI","look":10,"hold":10,"return":189.77339228761699,"drawdown":46.93015222864215,"N":58,"win_pct":46.55172413793103} Pre2026only,5bpfees20bpslippageperside,nextopenbreakout/timeexit. Executedafterfrozenholdoutreviewdiagnostically,NO selectionormoreholdouttests; notindependentvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
SEI Training-only parameter sensitivity 10/5 = 51.35163106260799
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"s":"SEI","look":10,"hold":5,"return":51.35163106260799,"drawdown":73.47378617986054,"N":82,"win_pct":40.243902439024396} Pre2026only,5bpfees20bpslippageperside,nextopenbreakout/timeexit. Executedafterfrozenholdoutreviewdiagnostically,NO selectionormoreholdouttests; notindependentvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars
HUT 2026 daily OLS versus SPY and correlations = 4.018255674294209
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"N":171,"ols":{"intercept_daily_bps":16.621200772015694,"beta":4.018255674294209,"r2":0.2666013452316012,"RV_pct":104.06052708098987},"correlations":{"SEI":0.5170706155170518,"LEU":0.5617033585086139,"HUT":1,"SPY":0.5163345284131221}} MatcheddailylogreturnsJan2–Sep8,171sessions;descriptiveOLS,noHACinference/causality/forecast. Sameperiodcomparison. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
LEU 2026 daily OLS versus SPY and correlations = 3.3476188946487597
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"N":171,"ols":{"intercept_daily_bps":-39.521985731763706,"beta":3.3476188946487597,"r2":0.24933398134854579,"RV_pct":89.64475763843447},"correlations":{"SEI":0.4534580752106448,"LEU":1,"HUT":0.5617033585086139,"SPY":0.49933353717584955}} MatcheddailylogreturnsJan2–Sep8,171sessions;descriptiveOLS,noHACinference/causality/forecast. Sameperiodcomparison. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
SEI 2026 daily OLS versus SPY and correlations = 2.6328984447688817
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:11
{"N":171,"ols":{"intercept_daily_bps":0.8379954930556607,"beta":2.6328984447688817,"r2":0.19767691528465836,"RV_pct":79.18369309443283},"correlations":{"SEI":1,"LEU":0.4534580752106448,"HUT":0.5170706155170518,"SPY":0.44460872155712183}} MatcheddailylogreturnsJan2–Sep8,171sessions;descriptiveOLS,noHACinference/causality/forecast. Sameperiodcomparison. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
5803.T Fujikura primary access and boardlot = 100
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:10
Sep9~02:06 verifiedcorrectissuerdomainco.jp vsfailed.com path;IRsays100sharetradingunit. Atworldquote5532JPY,boardlot553200JPY beforeFX. Financials page retrievedbutreportsnotrendered;noquarterlyclaimadopted. https://www.fujikura.co.jp/en/ir/
ALM July1 processing commencement and stockpile = 139700
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:10
IssuerJuly1:Juneplantfeedbegan,139700tonnesstockpiled atapprox.25%WO3. Illustrativegrossorevalue68m notacceptedconcentratecash. Stillramping; primarybuyerreceiptsunread. https://almonty.com/almonty-commences-processing-operations-at-sangdong-mine/
ALM July14 tungsten offtake repricing = 6.3
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:10
Issuercontractamendment:term15->21years fromfirstdelivery;totalvolume3.15->4.41millionMTU(+40%),annualminimum210000afterramp,prices+6.3%,approximately90%Phase1output.490mUSDannualillustrationatcurrentAPT,notfixedcashguarantee. Sameannualvolume mathematically;not40%annualoutputincrease. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670061/000149315226033123/ex99-1.htm
OESX Q1FY27 operating cash and earnings = 1.352
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:10
Jun30quarter:revenue25.7m,netincome2m,adjustedEBITDA2.5m;OCF1.352m,PPE.006m;cash5.165m,receivables14.4m,unbilled7.4m,inventory10.4m. Existingcashperformance distinct fromneworderprofit. https://investor.oriones.com/news-releases/news-release-details/orion-reports-first-quarter-financial-results-revenue-increases
OESX Sep8 second data-center order
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:10
IssuerSep8 08:28ET:secondmultimillionorder forMPHL2LED afterJuneinitial; Wisconsinmanufacturing andsupplychain cited byissuer as customerreason. Customerunnamed,exactvalue/margin/acceptanceundisclosed; oneissuerorigin. https://investor.oriones.com/news-releases/news-release-details/orion-announces-additional-multimillion-dollar-data-center
SEI H1cash and updated concentration = -569.694
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:10
Aug5Q2filing,Jun30period:OCF265.506m,equipment/PPE835.200m -> simpleFCF-569.694m beforeacquisitions;deferredrevenueincrease181.320m;receivableoutflow105.689m;financinginflow1226.459m. Q2onecustomer63%revenue/H158%,68%AR;Q2supplier24/16%,H127/13%purchases. Do not carry2025supplier51%forward. https://ir.solaris-energy.com/~/media/Files/S/Solaris-IR/reports-and-presentations/10-q-2q26.pdf
LIN 20/10 next-open indicators = 468.38
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:08
{"date":"2026-09-08 04:00:00+00:00","close":468.38,"prior20":490.84,"sma50":498.93839999999994,"adr20":7.181999999999993,"rv20_pct":16.090984326678377,"signal":false,"bars":1426} ComputedSep9~02:06. Frozenprior20closebreakout,nextopen,exit10sessionslater;pre2026train/2026holdout,costsinlabeltotalperside(5bpfee,restslippage). Indicatorsdiagnostic only; no15minexitvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LIN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
LIN 20/10 next-open holdout_0.005 = -10.004885943988047
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:08
{"return":-10.004885943988047,"drawdown":18.165731490499592,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":8,"mean_pct":-1.2731455187862442,"avg_win_pct":2.060905606722362,"avg_loss_pct":3.2735761940914077,"quarter_kelly":0,"returns":[0.010327628593315699,0.0183222209990794,0.03317731860927577,-0.02767107215304972,-0.04172296968376027,-0.03702912305296716,-0.022763722963116465,-0.03449192185167677]} ComputedSep9~02:06. Frozenprior20closebreakout,nextopen,exit10sessionslater;pre2026train/2026holdout,costsinlabeltotalperside(5bpfee,restslippage). Indicatorsdiagnostic only; no15minexitvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LIN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
LIN 20/10 next-open holdout_0.0025 = -6.332074139181859
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:08
{"return":-6.332074139181859,"drawdown":16.09406387091562,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":8,"mean_pct":-0.7780189738790091,"avg_win_pct":2.572744338133081,"avg_loss_pct":2.7884769610862636,"quarter_kelly":0,"returns":[0.015394479465119544,0.023429145377339852,0.038358705301533035,-0.022794692677711458,-0.03691702642053159,-0.03219965152416651,-0.017862745024283675,-0.029649732407619936],"mean_CI_pct":[-2.5345697267176184,1.1407107111169228],"simulation_10pct":{"loss_prob_pct":89.88000000000001,"median_return_pct":-1.5781891925965519,"p95_drawdown_pct":3.682667123729987}} ComputedSep9~02:06. Frozenprior20closebreakout,nextopen,exit10sessionslater;pre2026train/2026holdout,costsinlabeltotalperside(5bpfee,restslippage). Indicatorsdiagnostic only; no15minexitvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LIN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
LIN 20/10 next-open holdout_0.001 = -4.056846414245119
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:08
{"return":-4.056846414245119,"drawdown":14.825985800730956,"win_rate":37.5,"sample":8,"mean_pct":-0.47975533708180185,"avg_win_pct":2.881075376035382,"avg_loss_pct":2.496253764952112,"quarter_kelly":0,"returns":[0.018446744353111902,0.02650555049755738,0.04147996643039218,-0.019857167530498387,-0.034021931963012536,-0.029290383667686343,-0.014910401792164836,-0.026732803294243507]} ComputedSep9~02:06. Frozenprior20closebreakout,nextopen,exit10sessionslater;pre2026train/2026holdout,costsinlabeltotalperside(5bpfee,restslippage). Indicatorsdiagnostic only; no15minexitvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LIN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
LIN 20/10 next-open train_0.005 = -30.81294252266692
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:08
{"return":-30.81294252266692,"drawdown":37.823631093277235,"win_rate":45.28301886792453,"sample":53,"mean_pct":-0.6341438873804667,"avg_win_pct":2.1902435266179165,"avg_loss_pct":2.9715679541377487,"quarter_kelly":0,"returns":[0.018399690552689803,-0.006370312102054981,0.01890923254219932,0.000814852852646641,-0.00586411735913793,-0.03967544212008629,0.023255104582410802,0.015941629201698785,0.008302736195155353,-0.011784399975773787,0.049673742124060644,-0.0037542038329958487,0.01675831591125522,-0.07738521799759661,0.05754786890300652,-0.046784947992531946,-0.08348682065240265,0.012733058171820745,-0.08697644414588517,0.05002477231533433,0.05757286251802355,-0.03406532645937097,-0.03573898244214424,-0.02415969542902563,0.004637231443684093,-0.011011554310545455,-0.014578771445366208,-0.014922991833959894,0.02407679397070067,-0.0014304904213211455,0.04626578185487275,-0.011908247454201255,0.0012429647342841366,0.04369298284653355,0.02980392757720261,-0.012238473436316998,0.006815060991771056,-0.03343641263917644,0.004369445701408639,-0.018676163991612992,0.031093919251234985,-0.0037364575018609893,-0.03774633544731986,-0.07500584243440475,0.0013805827581244187,0.0006283971510916184,-0.037670805041944116,-0.04222332616107097,-0.00013318556513057381,-0.03148227799122674,-0.0457118863293193,0.0017174922370897466,-0.01379557418616356]} ComputedSep9~02:06. Frozenprior20closebreakout,nextopen,exit10sessionslater;pre2026train/2026holdout,costsinlabeltotalperside(5bpfee,restslippage). Indicatorsdiagnostic only; no15minexitvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LIN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
LIN 20/10 next-open train_0.0025 = -9.819181289428853
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:08
{"return":-9.819181289428853,"drawdown":23.835139303822572,"win_rate":52.83018867924528,"sample":53,"mean_pct":-0.1358142978773179,"avg_win_pct":2.3557712368284682,"avg_loss_pct":2.9263900967477987,"quarter_kelly":0,"returns":[0.0235070032530183,-0.001387160936290404,0.02401909936075789,0.005834020207804129,-0.0008784288534733773,-0.03485923546819761,0.028386755417267536,0.021036620681329405,0.013359437138798579,-0.0068283873399495485,0.05493781840206238,0.0012420607757422913,0.021857401095539023,-0.07275803448414973,0.06285141484428816,-0.042004378283093946,-0.0788902218893681,0.01781196644353357,-0.08239733738775898,0.055290608159042486,0.06287653374171376,-0.029220998673252705,-0.030903043984765483,-0.01926571490904608,0.009675558764149349,-0.006051667726659254,-0.009636765810454953,-0.00998271163009837,0.029212563586520003,0.003577421978784136,0.05151277547113012,-0.006952855613343614,0.006264278033021918,0.04892708011080221,0.03496840488866289,-0.0072847368784747625,0.011864304849569036,-0.028588932374388077,0.009406430725340751,-0.01375469685051408,0.03626486274471621,0.0012598960617206131,-0.03292045900055166,-0.07036673211879535,0.006402585877741889,0.005646629882770901,-0.03284454999323662,-0.03741989097298967,0.004881229674881017,-0.026625002476917545,-0.0409259378161464,0.0067411841412626065,-0.008849642715033282]} ComputedSep9~02:06. Frozenprior20closebreakout,nextopen,exit10sessionslater;pre2026train/2026holdout,costsinlabeltotalperside(5bpfee,restslippage). Indicatorsdiagnostic only; no15minexitvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LIN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
LIN 20/10 next-open train_0.001 = 5.722425254470108
Supply chain2026-09-09 02:08
{"return":5.722425254470108,"drawdown":21.77005290801691,"win_rate":56.60377358490566,"sample":53,"mean_pct":0.16437884914274023,"avg_win_pct":2.4983524427052943,"avg_loss_pct":2.87993453376494,"quarter_kelly":0.0164487250010196,"returns":[0.02658364229798386,0.0016146833491732663,0.027097277003482058,0.008857560602559877,0.002124943922503126,-0.03195795835765871,0.031478055725281597,0.02410583743772512,0.01640558772224115,-0.0038428912723722022,0.05810889163819612,0.004251804583525144,0.02492908389470716,-0.0699706246854941,0.06604626455824168,-0.03912456882394472,-0.07612123630767799,0.020871494694769115,-0.0796388889688452,0.05846274135544769,0.06607145892564002,-0.02630278142518301,-0.027989880458266385,-0.016317586913652125,0.012710641099026792,-0.0030638379974158173,-0.006659707543427432,-0.007006692760665441,0.032306345043246185,0.006594182402116104,0.05467355813231819,-0.003967733511909268,0.009289111141617228,0.05208009402502,0.038079479826811216,-0.00430061191754385,0.01490596329344204,-0.025668816076948753,0.012440704462396281,-0.010790010947525217,0.03937983290315842,0.004269693455794314,-0.030013356817175936,-0.06757213762882217,0.009427834533607864,0.008669607261464998,-0.029937219740506883,-0.03452630737693063,0.00790190740117304,-0.023698985532915356,-0.038042888172079,0.009767450118918799,-0.005870219528975968]} ComputedSep9~02:06. Frozenprior20closebreakout,nextopen,exit10sessionslater;pre2026train/2026holdout,costsinlabeltotalperside(5bpfee,restslippage). Indicatorsdiagnostic only; no15minexitvalidation. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?symbols=LIN&timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
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