SSL SSL Natref contingent finance and subsequent event = 2071
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:06
Parentguaranteetablep125-126: Natrefguarantee2071Rm, May2026 termfacility~2.1bn beforeinterest maturingMay2031. Not incremental debt to blindlyaddgroupEV. Note36p117: midAugdownstream/planned separateunitshutdown; yearendinventory providesflexibility, no unit-specific lostoutput or compensation cash.
https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Annual%20Financial%20Statements%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026_0.pdf
SSL SSL Natref joint-operation and inventory risk = 1321
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:06
AFS p76-79 Sep1 asJun30: share assets/liabilities and output incorporated as joint operation; Prax capacity by rescue agreement. Crude/raw9358 vs5087Rm; workinprogress5614 vs2827 includesPrax inventory; total50321vs41793. NRVwrite-down1321vs171Rm; inventoryatNRV12095vs2981 mainlySasolOil. Ownership rounding64 intable differsexact63.64, not equity acquisition.
https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Annual%20Financial%20Statements%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026_0.pdf
SSL SSL FY27 published EBIT sensitivities = 840
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:06
p8 annual average sensitivities prehedge: R840m perUSD1/bbl fuel crack, R650m perUSD1/bbl crude, R810m perZAR0.10/USD FX; explicitly nonlinear over largechanges. Model sensitivity, not realized cash; shocks correlate. FY27 oil hedges and partialFX hedges must not be ignored.
https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf
SSL SSL FY27 maintenance and normalization = 24.5
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:06
Sep1 p28 capexFY27guide23-26bnZAR vs20.872bn FY26; SO production7.2-7.4mtons, fuel sales-3to+3%; Brent breakeven53-58 vsFY26 49USD, prior year benefit6-9USD/bbl from favorable macros/absenceSOshutdown. Mid24.5bn is derived guide midpoint, not actual.
https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf
SSL SSL FY26 NWC denominator change = 18.3
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:06
p13/28 annual turnover NWC18.3%, six-month annualized16.6%; FY27 target15.5-16.5 is six-month annualized. Cash NWC change14724Rm; balance increase~11.4bn net ofnoncash~3.4bn. Cannot claim1.8-2.8ppt required cash release off annual denominator.
https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf
SSL SSL FY26 exact cash bridge = 11889
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:06
p5/p17 Rm: pre-working-capital operations56694 less workingcapital14724=41970 generated; +JVdiv1410+interestreceived2300-interestpaid7063-tax5624=32993available; capex20872+capitalaccrual232=>FCF11889 vs12558FY25/7173FY24. Issuer +22% operations is different subtotal from generated -12% andFCF-5%; adjusted prior Transnet comparison+26%. Group, not Natref segment cash.
https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf
SSL Natref FY26 margin and macro inputs = 25.1
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:06
p4 FY26/FY25/FY24 refining margins25.10/5.76/18.13USD/bbl; petrol16.23/10.62/16.24, diesel36.06/14.42/22.55; avgFX16.89/18.17/18.71 ZAR/USD. p21 Natref breakeven7-8USD/bbl estimate. Margins historical, not current quote or standalone distributable cash.
https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf
SSL Fuels FY26 replacement procurement = 4.2
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:06
p20 FY26/FY25/FY24 white-product external purchases4.2/8.5/5.7m bbl; fuels sales57.5/50.9/51.7m bbl; SO refined product30.6/27.6/29.1m; ORYX3.0/5.0/2.9m. Not a closed mass balance (intermediates/mix differ). FY27 fuel sales guide -3 to+3% and Prax disposition condition.
https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf
SSL Natref FY26 production attribution = 25.8
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:06
Sep1 issuer FY endedJun30 2026 analystsp20: reported production25.8m bbl vs14.7m FY25/17.8m FY24. Footnote4:6.9m incremental FY26 barrels from capacity above63.64% shareholding. Not total refinery throughput nor August outage quantity.
https://www.sasol.com/sites/default/files/2026-09/Additional%20Information%20for%20Analysts%20for%20the%20year%20ended%2030%20June%202026.pdf
Airport and pipeline current corroboration access gap
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Sep10 bounded primary searches airports.co.za and transnet.net for2026 Natref/jet/September gave no current dated operations quantities; direct airport open timed out, archived page shows service error. Missing access/search results are not evidence no disruption; no current jet stock or terminal capacity numbers measured.
https://www.airports.co.za/news
SSL January 2025 outage historical comparator
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Operator Jan13 2025: Jan4 fire around crude distillation unit, plant safely shut, imports among mitigation; duration/volume assessment pending then. Historical different unit/period, not independent August2026 event and not matched causal control.
https://sasol.com/media-centre/media-release/Natref-fuel-supply-interruption
Regulated fuel import parity scope
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Department methodology page read Sep10, publication date not given: basic fuel price represents imported supply costs, international product benchmarks and FX; domestic levies/margins added. Covers petrol/diesel/illuminating paraffin; NOT evidence all jet contracts regulated the same way. No local monopoly jet premium inferred.
https://www.dmre.gov.za/default.aspx?tabid=360
SSL Natref co-owner marketed capacity = 108500
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Undated co-owner page read Sep10 2026 labels108500 barrels/day and36.36% stake, Sasol63.64; marketing capacity/current output ambiguous and not an August achieved throughput print. Ownership corroboration sits at co-owner; old page does not resolve business rescue financing.
https://www.prax.com/service/natref-refinery/
SSL Natref capacity access versus ownership = 63.64
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Issuer Jan22 2026 H1 metrics says agreed with business rescue practitioners to use available Prax SA capacity; Prax entered rescue Oct2025. Historical ownership Sasol63.64/Prax36.36. Production access not equity acquisition; current terms and timing require FY26 update.
https://www.sasol.com/sasol-sens/202601220001a-s516022
SSL Natref August supply shortfall
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Operator Aug26 2026 reports unable to meet full commitments in certain product grades incl jet fuel ORTIA; continued partial supply. Does not establish total refinery shutdown or airport fuel exhaustion. Same origin as Sep1, not independent corroboration.
https://sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/unplanned-unit-shutdown-at-natref
SSL Natref September operational scope
Supply chain2026-09-10 04:03
Operator Sep1 2026, read Sep10: mid-Aug unplanned downstream unit coincided with separate planned outage; mitigation intended to keep affected unit operating until end September. No numerical restored throughput, lost volume, realized jet price or repair cost. Closest operator, interested continuity framing. Distinct FY27 event, not FY26 operating evidence.
https://www.sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/natref-operational-update
IREN 91002 numerical sizing and simulation diagnostic = 0
Supply chain2026-09-10 02:17
{"symbol":"IREN","p":0.25,"w":1.4027658513090584,"l":0.15526962865706087,"binary_quarter_kelly":0.2688610944285986,"approved":0,"p_terminal_loss10pct":0.0696,"q05_50_95":[-2.8807066518871887,51.441279402551565,149.61836401013434]} p/w/l fromclosedholdout, decimalreturns. QuarterKellybinaryaverages diagnostic, not multistateoptimization. 10000IID20tradepaths at10%equityassumesfixedempiricaldistribution; no duration,gap,serial,parameteruncertainty. AllmeanCIs crosszero; approved0 overridespointestimate.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
ATI 91002 numerical sizing and simulation diagnostic = 0
Supply chain2026-09-10 02:17
{"symbol":"ATI","p":0.5,"w":0.37163648684456585,"l":0.03809531243685544,"binary_quarter_kelly":2.9448934147276464,"approved":0,"p_terminal_loss10pct":0.0012,"q05_50_95":[13.09413657796907,36.9274773664631,72.71825281680375]} p/w/l fromclosedholdout, decimalreturns. QuarterKellybinaryaverages diagnostic, not multistateoptimization. 10000IID20tradepaths at10%equityassumesfixedempiricaldistribution; no duration,gap,serial,parameteruncertainty. AllmeanCIs crosszero; approved0 overridespointestimate.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
SSL 91002 numerical sizing and simulation diagnostic = 0
Supply chain2026-09-10 02:17
{"symbol":"SSL","p":0.42857142857142855,"w":0.429894125786314,"l":0.05873203022420245,"binary_quarter_kelly":1.491958458161926,"approved":0,"p_terminal_loss10pct":0.0125,"q05_50_95":[6.590085390765632,32.28256964759242,71.80133209962425]} p/w/l fromclosedholdout, decimalreturns. QuarterKellybinaryaverages diagnostic, not multistateoptimization. 10000IID20tradepaths at10%equityassumesfixedempiricaldistribution; no duration,gap,serial,parameteruncertainty. AllmeanCIs crosszero; approved0 overridespointestimate.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
FTK 91002 numerical sizing and simulation diagnostic = 0
Supply chain2026-09-10 02:17
{"symbol":"FTK","p":0.3,"w":0.19600734138187104,"l":0.19299521720243093,"binary_quarter_kelly":0,"approved":0,"p_terminal_loss10pct":0.9568,"q05_50_95":[-25.749245085098575,-14.604927297679666,-0.6565682485288143]} p/w/l fromclosedholdout, decimalreturns. QuarterKellybinaryaverages diagnostic, not multistateoptimization. 10000IID20tradepaths at10%equityassumesfixedempiricaldistribution; no duration,gap,serial,parameteruncertainty. AllmeanCIs crosszero; approved0 overridespointestimate.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?feed=sip&adjustment=all
ATI Correction19669 exact gain-adjusted margin = 21.76671160098327
Supply chain2026-09-10 02:16
A computer program using Python calculated the gain-adjusted margin to be 21.76671160098327 percent, which is the result of multiplying 274.5 by 100 and then dividing by 1261.1. The observation numbered 19669 had an incorrect value of 21.767498, which should be replaced with the calculated value. The rounded value of 21.767 percent in observation 19220 is still correct. This correction does not change any decisions.
https://ir.atimaterials.com/news-events/news-details/2026/ATI-Announces-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx
ATI Illustrative forward valuation and gain adjustment correction = 40.98015873
FTK Customer concentration and equity valuation inputs = 56.5
Supply chain2026-09-10 02:15
Q2Jun30'26 relatedcustomerA revenue56.142m=56.5%total;H1related108.028m/169.418m=63.764%. Jun30 outstanding36.217709m vsDec30.130480m; current dilutedcountunverified. Sep9SIP27.88 implies illustrativeJune-shareequity1009.75m/SeptguideEBITDAmid52m=19.418x, NOT EV/EBITDA. Sourceprice https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars . Do not treat projected growth as cheap without debt/dilution reconciliation.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm