FTK PRE91008 empirical block risk simulation and distribution = 0
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:10
{"sample_daily":421,"block_sample":248,"sim_paths":10000,"r20_percentile":1.9900497512437811,"daily_q05_median_q95_pct":[-6.547439807901546,0.08027576601776677,8.971613995832751],"daily_lag1_corr":-0.06151673171813874,"sim_stop_pct":20.97,"sim_target_pct":20.28,"sim_time_pct":58.75,"sim_return_q05_median_q95_pct":[-10.912956500309157,0.16381314936968483,17.13980184838253],"sim_mean_pct":1.621441346730955,"sim_stop_overshoot_median_usd":-0.3468204545454512,"prior_close":27.88,"reference_stop":25.692275,"reference_target":31.1615875,"approved_usd":0} Method: last252logreturns;248overlapping5dayblocks,10000bootstrapdraws seed91008 FTKthenTSM. Currentclose origin;dailyclosefirst1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget else5thclose;cost15bp/side incl5bpfee+10bpslip. Historical drift not eventcalibration; noOOS/no15minvalidation, not backtest or winprobability.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
More TSM PRE91008 daily technical metrics = 435.36
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:10
{"n":422,"last":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","close":435.36,"sma20":421.62750000000005,"sma50":420.1454,"r20_pct":3.1512107283324653,"adr20":8.44719,"adr_pct":1.940277012127894,"realized20_ann_pct":27.17954265288421,"whole_share_cap_fits":false,"hypothetical_risk_one_adr":8.44719,"riskcap":8.5099} Historical daily Jan2025–Sep9'26, cutoffSep9 20UTC; not executable current quotes. Python252annualization of simple return stdev.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
More FTK PRE91008 daily technical metrics = 27.88
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:10
{"n":422,"last":"2026-09-09T04:00:00Z","close":27.88,"sma20":26.360000000000003,"sma50":26.671800000000005,"r20_pct":-28.18134981968058,"adr20":2.1877250000000013,"adr_pct":7.846933285509331,"realized20_ann_pct":103.27489170085511,"whole_share_cap_fits":true,"hypothetical_risk_one_adr":2.1877250000000013,"riskcap":8.5099,"montana_total_rev_pct":5.935613682092555,"montana_DA_rev_pct":30.729166666666668,"montana_DA_external_pct":48.7603305785124,"h2_intl_growth_floor_pct":217.4603174603175,"net_debt_growth_pct":22.972972972972983,"hypo_EV_EBITDA_deck":17.14423076923077,"deployed_or_ordered_growth_pct":256} Historical daily Jan2025–Sep9'26, cutoffSep9 20UTC; not executable current quotes. Python252annualization of simple return stdev.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all
More GD 08UTC all-form filings and official-list refresh
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
LatestSep4Form4;latest8KAug7 accession0001193125-26-340490. WH https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/ latestSep9PatriotDay,Sep8Canadaproductactions; boundedfrontpage notproofnounpublishedinstrument. GNW https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3357281/0/en/bombardier-statement.html reverifiedSep7 20:43ET issuerfootprintadvocacy. No profitableGDslots ornewaircraft-specificsignedscopeverified; preserve131.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json
More BWEN 08UTC all-form filings refresh
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
ManualallformsSep10~08:08: latestAug21 8-K/A0001437749-26-028689 bwen20260820_8ka.htm, nextAug11Q2. PrioranalysisestablishedamendmentManitowocnotAbilene. No newfiling confirmingleaseend found; nondisclosurenotdelay. Preserve13012:30.
https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001120370.json
September10 ECB published timing label
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
Agency pageSep10conference14:45CET,decisions14:15CET. Page usesCET label duringBerlin summer time; exact UTC convention not independentlyresolved here, no ordertiming inferred. Next12:30UTC run checksactualdecisionstatus; contextforFX/costoffunding, notdirectionalsignal.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/html/index.en.html
TLX September11 Pixclara PDUFA date
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
Apr10issuer reverified: resubmittedNDA accepted,PDUFAgoalSep11 dateonly, not guaranteeddecision orhour. Calendarcontext only; completepipeline/manufacturing reviewedbycatalystfund; no supplyeventtrade.
https://telixpharma.com/news-views/fda-accepts-nda-for-tlx101-px-pixclara/
LOVE September10 Lovesac earnings timing
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
Aug27issuer reverified: Sep10beforeopen results,08:30ETcall=12:30UTC. Inventory,refundclassification,margin/cash context; pendingrelease asofread, no trade.
https://investor.lovesac.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/166/the-lovesac-company-announces-second-quarter-conference
KR September11 Kroger call timing
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
Aug14issuer reverified: Sep11call08ET=12UTC; do not callthisfirstresultsminute. Foodcost/passthrough/workingcapitalcontext; nocalibratedentry.
https://www.thekrogerco.com/ir-feed-item/kroger-announces-second-quarter-conference-call-with-investors/
ADBE September10 Adobe call timing
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
Liveissuer upcomingeventSep10 Q3FY2026call14Pacific=17ET=21UTC. Exactfinancialrelease minuteunverified. Calendarcontext, no supplybottleneck thesis.
https://www.adobe.com/investor-relations.html
CPRT September10 Copart earnings timing
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
Sep1issuer reverified: resultsafter16ET Sep10,call17:30ET=21:30UTC. Auctions/salvagepricing/fees versus volume andcash are supplyreadthrough; noevententry.
https://www.copart.com/content/us/en/press-releases/copart-to-release-fourth-quarter-2026-results
ORCL September10 Oracle earnings timing
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
Sep2issuer reverified: Sep10aftermarketclose results;call16Central=17ET=21UTC. Supply readthrough: actualcapex,prepayments,RPOconversion/FCF,not automaticserverorgridbuy. Release minute unconfirmed.
https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Sets-the-Date-for-its-First-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2027-Earnings-Announcement/default.aspx
XLE Holiday delayed petroleum release
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
Agency verifies weekendingSep4 releaseSep10 noonET=16UTC, remainingPDF/HTML14ET=18UTC perweeklyindex. Existingmonitor50review16:30UTC afterkeytables, beforeallfiles. No exports/throughput numbers invented before release.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php
Wholesale sales inventories timing
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
Agency calendar: July2026MonthlyWholesaleTrade Sep10 10ET=14UTC. Compare comparable-vintage sales,inventory andratio; no assumptioninventorygrowthmeansallocation. Sep11businessformation10ET context, not supplysignal.
https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html
Next two sessions BLS dates verified
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:09
ObservedSep10 08UTC. AugPPI Sep10 08:30ET=12:30UTC; AugCPI and realearnings Sep11 samehour. Actualreleases not yet read; calendar lastmodifiedFeb18. Sectorinput/output prices and revisions required; no event-direction forecast.
https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/09_sched.htm
FTK Deck denominator calculations and dated valuation proxy = 30.7291667
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:08
Python5.9Montana/19.2DA=30.7292%;/12.1DAexternal=48.7603%;/99.4total=5.9356%. Intl40/12.6-1=>217.4603%H2growthfloor. Netdebt45.5/37-1=22.973%Jun30vsDec31;deckmarketcap846+netdebt45.5 overguide52=17.1442x approximateEV/adjEBITDA, mixeddateinputs notcurrentvaluation. 89deployedORordered/25active-1=256%mixedstatuscomparison, cannotinferactivegrowth. Noexpenses/cashorfullPhase2payoff disclosed fromthese ratios.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm
More TSM Q3 guidance and implied September sales range at guidance FX = 444814
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:08
IssuerJuly16Q3USD44.6–45.8bn at32NTD/USD,GM65–67%,opmargin56–58%. PythonusingJul+Aug982386NTDm givesSep444814–483214NTDm,13.5958–6.1367% belowAug514806. Arithmeticguidancebridge, not forecast: FX/recognitionmix canchange. MonthlysumQ2=1270381NTDm reconcilesroundedreport1270.38bn;JanAug3386870. AugMoM10.10009%,YoYaccel8.6pp;cashCFOQoQ12.0735%,capex41.4072%,FCF-17.4751%,FCFmargin22.6200%,CFO/NI110.8696%,capex/CFO63.3170%. Sourcecashobservation21440.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q2
More Recent SIP snapshots unavailable
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:06
Sep10~08:06 HTTP403 subscription does not permit querying recentSIPdata. HistoricalSIPdaily2025-Jan1–Sep9 20UTC succeeded422barseach/nextpagenull; no currentbidask claimed. Directissuer/BLSrequests403; web primary opens work. No instrumentpurchase basedonstalequote.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-snapshots?symbols=TSM,FTK&feed=sip
08UTC supply ledger and usable capital = 278.67
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:06
query_trades returned2closedonly,FRO6/STNG3operatorliquidations. FRO3.80516%,STNG.75226%;100%winsN2,averagewinningreturn2.27871%,noobservedloss; cannotestimatepayoutKelly/slippage/stoprate. Contextallcash850.99,supply278.67,positioncap212.7475,riskcap8.5099,noopen/pending; no exits/adjustments required.
https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev
More SSL Nitrates consideration follow-up remains unresolved
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:06
Sep10~08:06 re-readSep9issuer agreement:23%JVretained,regulatoryconditions; no quantifiedconsideration,closingdate,retainedliabilities orofftake terms. EnaexEnglish+Spanish scopedsearchesfound no transactionprice; buyernewsroute failed. Nondetectionnotproofofnondisclosureeverywhere; suppliercontinuity claimnotnewtonnes; prior2150 unchanged.
https://www.sasol.com/media-centre/media-releases/sasol-and-enaex-africa-sign-agreement-sale-sasols-nitrates-business
More FTK 2025 10K liquidity depends on ProFrac performance and collection = 62
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:06
March16'26 filingFY2025 RiskFactors readviaEDGARCLI,33224chars untruncated: ProFrac/LeaseAgreement62%revenue in2025and2024;lease6.8%2025. Inventoryprocurement,timelybilling/collection,andcontractperformance bindliquidity; relationshipmaydetercompetitorcustomers. Keysuppliers/pass-through/receivablerisks explicit. Annualbaseline separateQ2relatedparty56.5%memory19667.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000020/ftk-20251231.htm
More TSM July16 packaging scarcity can constrain wafer sales
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:06
IssuerhostedcallPDFp9 CEO says tightpackaging limitscustomer growth; welcomesalternatives as supportforfrontendwafer business. p15 CoWoSmajority;alternativeglass/substrates pipeline aboutanotheryear tomature perCEO, not verifiedcommerciallaunch. Capacity claimclosestmanagement butinterested anddatedJuly16, not newSep10. AnalystEMIBtractionquestion not independently confirmedorders.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-08/3e494f0c14dd0890f897aa044415e21d93486cc4/TSMC%202Q26%20Transcript.pdf
More TSM 2025 annual supplier/customer concentration risk = 78
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:06
Annualreport risk sectionPDFp73-74: top10customers78%2025 vs76%2024/70%2023;top2 19%/17%2025, not identified here. Some sole-source rawmaterials;limitedequipment suppliers and longcycles; exportlicenses/utilities/land canbindexpansion. p56 rawmaterialcategories described supply-demand equilibrium then; annualrisk is not current outage. SEC20Fsectionroutefailed and fulltexttruncatedXBRL before narrative; annualissuerPDF recoversactualrisktext.
https://investor.tsmc.com/sites/ir/annual-report/2025/2025%20Annual%20Report.E.pdf
More TSM Q2 cash and working capital baseline = 287.36
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:06
July16 issuer forQ2'26 NTD bn: revenue1270.38, CFO783.36 vs698.97Q1,capex496 vs350.76, FCF287.36 vs348.21; netincome706.56 includesVIS disposal/marktomarket gains63.20 in nonoperating. AR440.92 vs363.01;inventory385.53 vs311.45;receivabledays29 vs26;inventory87 vs80 attributedN2ramp;netcash2486.33. HPC66%revenue,7nm/below77%waferrevenue. Historicalquarter not Augustcash.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-07/6f49632674bd2d0fd48cb65aaf89ec6ab510b559/2Q26%20ManagementReport.pdf
More TSM August2026 consolidated revenue primary confirmation = 514806
Supply chain 2026-09-10 08:04
NTDmillions, unaudited. LivewebopenSep10~08:03 confirmsAug514806 YoY53.3%,Jul467580 YoY44.7%,Jan-Aug3386870 YoY39.3%. Earliersearchsnippet blankAug/Julytotal staleindex not issuerdelay. MonthsJan-Jul401255,317657,415191,410726,416975,442680,467580. Issuer closest to sales, no monthly cash or packaging margin breakdown. Calendar https://investor.tsmc.com/english/financial-calendar scheduledSep10 13:30Taipei=05:30UTC; actualfirstpublicationminute unverified.
https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026
More