Notes

A news scan found the headline 'SEC 2001 6:32:26 UTC latest Sep 4 Form 4, other recent Aug 28'. This refers to a security filing. The White House has a current list that was last updated on September 9, which is also known as Patriot Day. On September 8, there were Canadian actions that were previously reviewed. A search specifically looking at Bombardier did not verify any new operative ban or scope or accepted General Dynamics slots. This does not prove that there is no instrument elsewhere. A media report from September 8 mentioned a threat, but it is not a law. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json ; https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/

A news scan found the headline 'BWEN LUNCH910 Abilene completion remains unverified'. According to a DirectSEC filing on August 21, the company submitted an 8-K/A form, which is an amended report, and the next report, either a 10Q or 8K, is due on August 11. The issuer's news, numbered 403, and a bounded web search found that on May 5, the original expected lease end was September 5, but there is no verified completion. No new information on residual cash or customer terms was found, and the lack of disclosure does not mean a delay. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001120370.json ; https://investors.bwen.com/news-events/press-releases

A news scan found the headline about WCC LUNCH910 July electrical inventories and sampling. According to a primary PDF table, in the NAICS 4236 sector, July sales were 111,485 million USD, which is a 0.1% increase from June sales of 111,385 million USD. Inventories increased by 2.3% from 97,912 to 100,128. The inventory to sales ratio was 0.90, compared to 0.88 in June and 0.96 a year ago. Year over year, sales increased by 30.8% and stock increased by 22.7%. Revised June sales were 794,907 million USD and stock was 946,687 million USD, which is different from the old numbers of 794.1 billion USD and 944.7 billion USD. The survey included around 4,200 employer firms, with 54.8% providing data. The quantity response rate was 61.5% for sales and 62.1% for stock. Note that this data excludes manufacturers' sales branches and agents or brokers. The term NAICS refers to the North American Industry Classification System, which is used to classify businesses. The electrical basket is not related to WCC or HUBB cash, margin, or item level allocation. https://www.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/mwts/currentwhl.pdf

A primary agency released information on September 10 at 10:00 ET, which was read on a browser at 16:31-32 UTC. The July wholesale sales were $801.3 billion, which is a 0.8% increase from the previous month, and a 13% increase from the same time last year. The inventory was $958.9 billion, a 1.3% increase, and a 5.7% increase from the same time last year. The inventory to sales ratio is 1.20, compared to 1.28 last year. The sales revision for May and June was changed from -3.0 to -2.9. Note that these numbers are not adjusted for inflation and cover a different period than the August Producer Price Index, which is a measure of the average change in prices of goods and services used by producers, also known as PPI. https://www.census.gov/wholesale/current/index.html

At 16:32 UTC, the landing and summary from ir.eia.gov contained data from September 4, but the PDF tables 1 and 7 on www.eia.gov still had data from August 28. The holiday schedule, which explicitly states 12:14 ET, supersedes the generic 10:30/13 ET table header. The issue was resolved by using the current data from the ir CSV, rather than relabeling the prior PDF. The remaining 14 ET files will require a check at a later time. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/ ; https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/table1.pdf ; https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table1.csv

A news scan found the headline 'Agency Sep10 release, fetched16:32:46'. This refers to a report from an agency on September 10, which was obtained at 16:32:46. The report states that commercial stocks are at 1248.641 million barrels, which is an increase of 6.299. Crude oil stocks are at 424.069 million barrels, a decrease of 0.390 million barrels. Gasoline stocks are at 206.938 million barrels, an increase of 1.269 million barrels. Distillate stocks, which are a type of fuel, are at 106.274 million barrels, an increase of 2.086 million barrels. Refinery input, which is the amount of crude oil being processed, is at 17.586 million barrels per day, an increase of 91,000 barrels per day. Refinery utilization, which is the percentage of refineries being used, is at 97.8%. The amount of products supplied, such as gasoline and distillate, is at 19.313 million barrels per day, compared to 20.675 million barrels per day. Over the past four weeks, the average amount of products supplied is 20.119 million barrels per day, a decrease of 3.7% compared to the same time last year. Oil production is at 13.947 million barrels per day, an increase of 85,000 barrels per day, which includes a 65,000 barrel per day increase due to a rebenchmarking, which is a revision of the way data is calculated. https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table1.csv ; https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf

A news scan found the headline 'XLE LUNCH910 September4 petroleum flows'. An agency released primary data on September 10, which was fetched at 16:32:46 UTC. The data compares the week of September 4 to the week of August 28. Crude exports were 3.417 million barrels per day, compared to 4.483 million, which is a decrease of 1.066 million. Product exports were 8.451 million, compared to 7.413 million, which is an increase of 1.038 million. Total exports were 11.868 million, compared to 11.896 million, which is a decrease of 0.028 million. Over a four-week period, exports averaged 11.923 million barrels per day, which is an 11.7 percent increase from the same time last year. Crude exports increased by 6.4 percent and product exports increased by 14.5 percent. These numbers are national estimates and do not include vessel fixtures, ton miles, or issuer net cash. https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table1.csv ; https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/table7.csv

A Python recalculation, not a new backtest, was done. The results show a win percentage of 19.6007341% and a loss percentage of 19.2995217%, which implies a mean of -7.62944496%. The raw quarter Kelly is -0.0973107043, which was clipped to 0. The holdout percentage is -63.6175% and the drawdown is 67.1654% over 10 periods. The training percentage is -46.4835%. A prior command line interface test from 1939 was already run, so no new independence test was needed. The current system has 2 wins with no losses, but it cannot replace the rejection. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars ; frozen analyses1895/2197/2226

The automated trading fund manager reported that only two supply trades, FRO6 and STNG3, were closed, and these were due to operator liquidations. There are no open, pending, or closing trades. The fund's current status is as follows: cash is 278.67, account balance is 850.99, capital is 212.7475, and risk is 8.5099. There are five active jobs with identifiers 12, 18, 36, 73, and 173. The last job, 173, ended at 13:45, and the next jobs are scheduled for 14:45 and 15:45 before 16:30. The manager also noted a challenge with Bombardier and an error with CENTCOM, as well as a helium 36 AI.PA 403 issue and a MOFCOM timeout. No duplicate job is needed. query_trades fund=supply; list_jobs fund=supply; user 2026-09-10T13:50 account snapshot

A news scan found the headline about the August Producer Price Index, which was released on September 10. The release was embargoed until 8:30 ET, and it was verified on a browser from 13:53 to 13:56 UTC on September 10. The final demand increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 5.4% year-over-year, while the final demand excluding food, energy, and trade increased by 0.3% and 4.7% respectively. The goods price index increased by 1.1%, the services price index increased by 0.1%, the transportation and warehousing index increased by 2.3%, and the truck freight index increased by 2.0%. The trade index decreased by 0.2%, and the fuels and lubricants retail margins decreased by 11.3%. The intermediate processed goods price index increased by 1.8% month-over-month and 11.5% year-over-year, the processed energy goods price index increased by 7.3%, and the diesel price index increased by 24.1%. The processed goods price index excluding food and energy increased by 0.5% month-over-month. The data for April to July was revised, with the July final demand increasing by 0.1% and the June demand decreasing by 0.1% in the current vintage, but the revision deltas were not measured. It was noted that different baskets cannot be subtracted to calculate company margin. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

From September 10 at 13:56, a browser table showed that for August 2026, TSM had revenue of NT$514,806 million, which is an increase of 53.3% from the same time last year. In July, the revenue was NT$467,580 million. For the year to date, the revenue is NT$3,386,870 million, which is an increase of 39.3%. This information is not yet audited, meaning it has not been officially verified. There were 403 direct requests, but the browser table was available. No correction or new information about cash was found on the checked page. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026

From September 10 at 13:56, the direct 200 narrative stated that H2 international was expected to be more than $40 million, compared to $12.6 million in H1. There was an initial pause in generation due to infrastructure delays, and discussions about Phase 2 were ongoing. No paid Saudi invoices were verified, and there were no restart or standby billings with a verified signature. The Securities and Exchange Commission's latest 8K filing was on September 9, and the investor relations latest guidance was also on September 9. The presentation deck repeated the old pause, and the August 6 Q2 filing date was retained. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm

A news scan found the headline about a supplier spillover issuer baseline. On September 7 at 20:43 ET, an issuer statement was released, and on September 10, it was re-read to say that approximately 2800 American companies across 47 states have supplier spending of more than $2.5 billion annually. The advocacy by the affected issuer is from the same origin as the syndication, which means it is not independent, and there is no law or evidence related to GD cash to support it. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3357281/0/en/bombardier-statement.html

From September 10 at 13:53 UTC, the latest information from September 9, which is Patriot Day, showed that a search for Bombardier, which is a company that makes aircraft, found some unverified threats or media reports about a company-specific instrument, which is a document that says what a company can or cannot do. The Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, has a website with information about companies, and the latest information from September 4 is available at https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json, which is a Form 4, a document that companies must file when someone buys or sells their stock. No profitable, or money-making, time slots for General Dynamics, which is a company that makes aircraft and other things, were found, but not finding something does not mean it does not exist. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/

On September 10 at 13:53 UTC, a review of recent metadata from the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, showed that the latest information available is still the 8-K/A form filed on August 21, 2016, with the identifier 0001437749-26-028689. No new form was found. The prior 10Q form was expected on September 5, but the end of the lease on that date does not mean the process is complete. The issuer's website, https://investors.bwen.com/news/default.aspx, returned a 403 error and an internal error, so the terms for residual cash and customers remain unknown, with no evidence of a delay. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001120370.json

A news scan found the headline '2026 M07 Results' on September 10 at 12:33 UTC, which was not the expected August release. The system did not use the old July numbers or guess that the release was delayed. The Supply124 check at 16:30 still works correctly and reviews Census data, but it has not confirmed the actual August release in this pre-open check. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

On September 10, there were five active jobs, numbered 12, 18, 36, 73, and 173. Job 173 ended at 11:45 UTC with an exit code of 0, completing 21 out of 21 tasks, and is scheduled to run again at 12:45 UTC with 14 runs remaining. Two issues, the Bombardier challenge and CENTCOM HTTP error, are known gaps in coverage, and changes to hashes are not considered new information. Job 36 is scheduled to run next at 13:15 UTC, before a 13:50 UTC run. Job 73 is scheduled to run on September 11 at 02:30 UTC, and will only cover exact 8-K forms, so all forms for BWEN were manually checked today. All existing jobs were retained. list_jobs fund=supply; notes1932/1925/1919

A review of the fund's activities, called a live fund query, showed only two trades that have been completed, which are FRO6 and STNG3, both of which were closed by the operator on September 4. There are no trades that are currently open, pending, or in the process of being closed. The current state of the account is as follows: the total amount of money in the account is $850.99, the amount of cash available in the fund is $278.67, the total value of the investments is $212.75, and the risk is 8.5099%, based on a snapshot of the fund's performance. The review also showed that 100% of the observed winning trades, which are labeled as N2, do not have any recorded losses or exits based on stop or target prices, which means that it is not possible to determine a reliable Kelly sizing, a method used to calculate the optimal amount to invest, from the selected set of trades. query_trades fund=supply; user account snapshot 2026-09-10T12:31Z

A news scan found the headline 'TSM PRE91012 August monthly revenue unchanged'. On September 10, at 12:32 UTC, the primary issuer table was rechecked. The results showed that in August 2026, the revenue was 514,806 million New Taiwan dollars, which is a 53.3 percent increase from the same time last year. In July, the revenue was 467,580 million New Taiwan dollars. For the year to date, the revenue is 3,386,870 million New Taiwan dollars, which is a 39.3 percent increase. This information is not audited. It matches the review from 08 UTC, and no corrections were needed. The monthly revenue is not the same as newly disclosed free cash flow, and it does not affect the event price edge, which is a term that refers to the edge of a price movement in a financial event. https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue/2026

A document from the issuer, dated September 10 and filed on September 9, says that international sales for the second half of the year are expected to be more than $40 million, compared to $12.6 million in the first half. This is a forecast made by management, not based on actual receipts from Saudi invoices. There is no confirmed news of a utility restart, standby billing, or a Phase 2 signature from the latest investor relations release, index, or document. The current pause, dependencies on the PREPA counterparty, and the failed FTK test are still in effect. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000087/ex992-lakestreetinvestor.htm

A quarterly filing date for FTK has been corrected. On September 10, a direct review of all-form SEC metadata showed that the Q2 10-Q filing was made on August 6, 2026, not August 11 as previously stated. The full original filing can be found at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm, which also shows an August 6 signature. The filing already mentioned that generation was paused due to infrastructure delays, with no assurance of extension or resolution. This correction strengthens a conclusion that was already known before September 10, and does not introduce any new adverse information. The latest SEC 8-K filing was made on September 9, and the latest investor relations release was also made on September 9. A news scan found the SEC metadata, which is a collection of information about a company's filings, and the term SEC refers to the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is a government agency that regulates companies' financial reporting. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000928054.json

From September 10 at 12:33 UTC, the latest page visible was from September 9, which was Patriot Day. No specific instrument related to Bombardier was verified in the index or in a targeted search. The Securities and Exchange Commission website has a submission from September 4 in the form of a Form 4, which can be found at https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0000040533.json. On September 7 at 20:43:49 ET, a statement from the issuer was released at https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/08/3357281/0/en/bombardier-statement.html, which is an advocacy for a US presence, but it does not include a signed ban or a disclosure of a General Dynamics accepted slot. The search was not an exhaustive legal review, and there was no confirmation of additional General Dynamics delivery cash. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/

A check was made on September 10 at 12:32 UTC of the issuer's submissions to the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is a government agency that oversees stock markets, and the latest found was an 8-K/A filing from August 21, numbered 0001437749-26-028689. The original amendment, which is an updated version of a previous document, can be found at https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1120370/000143774926028689/bwen20260820_8ka.htm and it concerns pro forma information, which is a way of showing financial data as if a certain event had happened, for Manitowoc, but not Abilene. No new information about the termination or cash terms for Abilene was verified. The fact that some information is not disclosed does not necessarily mean it is being delayed, and a search of news from the issuer did not find any announcement of completion. https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001120370.json

A news scan found the text of a company's August 11 Q2 filing Management's Discussion and Analysis, which already disclosed that the generation of the Utility Support Contract was paused. The revenue for Q2 was 5.9 million and for the first half of the year was 6.6 million. The contract has an initial term of 6 months with a customer option to extend to 4 years, but there is no assurance that the extension or delays will be resolved. The risk section states that the overall project with PREPA is 400 MW, with FTK responsible for up to 40 MW, which is approximately 90% third party capacity and execution. The project's realization is also dependent on permits, grid, fuel, bonding, equipment, and weather. A conference presentation on page 22 repeats the known pause, which is not a fresh adverse catalyst from September 10. The full text of the EDGAR filing truncates the XBRL, but a web search can recover the narrative. The 19.7 million consideration for OSP consists of 7.2 million cash and 12.5 million equipment credit, with 5 million cash paid in Q1 and 2.2 million paid in April, and 7 million credit used in Q1 and 2.3 million credit used in Q2, with the remaining credit usable until 2027. The credit is not a cash receipt. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/928054/000092805426000080/ftk-20260630.htm

{"sample_daily":421,"block_sample":248,"sim_paths":10000,"r20_percentile":45.27363184079602,"daily_q05_median_q95_pct":[-4.132129866502924,0.29432204925634264,4.687182853371476],"daily_lag1_corr":-0.15913068761496807,"sim_stop_pct":42.81,"sim_target_pct":48.04,"sim_time_pct":9.15,"sim_return_q05_median_q95_pct":[-5.4479013078689515,2.1294386974418433,6.366526020340046],"sim_mean_pct":0.5064834022675688,"sim_stop_overshoot_median_usd":-4.970718921290825,"prior_close":435.36,"reference_stop":426.91281000000004,"reference_target":448.03078500000004,"approved_usd":0} Method: last252logreturns;248overlapping5dayblocks,10000bootstrapdraws seed91008 FTKthenTSM. Currentclose origin;dailyclosefirst1ADRstop/1.5ADRtarget else5thclose;cost15bp/side incl5bpfee+10bpslip. Historical drift not eventcalibration; noOOS/no15minvalidation, not backtest or winprobability. https://runway.adityaperswal.workers.dev/data/stock-bars?timeframe=1Day&feed=sip&adjustment=all